Search results for: probabilistic risk assessment
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2339

Search results for: probabilistic risk assessment

329 Knowledge of Operation Rooms’ Staff Toward Sources, Prevention and Control of Fires at Governmental Hospitals in Sana'a, Yemen

Authors: A. Ahmed Haza’a, M. Ali Odhah, S. Ahmed Al-Ahdal, A. Saleh Al-Jaradi, G. Ghaleb Alrubaiee

Abstract:

Patient safety in hospitals is an essential professional indicator that should be noticed. The threat of fires is potentially the most dangerous risk that could harm patients and personnel. The aim of the study is to assess the knowledge of operating room (OR) staff toward prevention and control sources of fires. Data collection was done between March 1 and March 30, 2022. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted. The sample of the study consisted of 89 OR staff from different governmental hospitals. Convenient sampling was applied to select the sample size. Official approvals were obtained from selected settings for start collection data. Data were collected using a close-ended questionnaire and tested for knowledge. This study was conducted in four governmental hospitals in Sana'a, Yemen. Most of the OR staff were male. Of these, 50.6% of them were operation technician professionals. More than two-thirds of OR staff have less than ten years of experience; 93% of OR staff had inadequate knowledge of sources of fires, and inadequate knowledge toward control and prevention of fires (73%, 79.8%), respectively; 77.5% of OR staff had inadequate knowledge of prevention and control sources of fires. The study concluded that most of OR staff had inadequate knowledge of sources, controls, and prevention of fires, while 22.5% of them had adequate knowledge of prevention and control sources of fires. We recommended the implementation of training programs toward sources, controls, and prevention of fires or related workshops in their educational planning for OR staff of hospitals.

Keywords: Staff, fire source, operation room safety.

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328 Dynamic Features Selection for Heart Disease Classification

Authors: Walid MOUDANI

Abstract:

The healthcare environment is generally perceived as being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant patterns from the Coronary Heart Disease warehouses for heart attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose, we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts- knowledge in this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.

Keywords: Multi-Classifier Decisions Tree, Features Reduction, Dynamic Programming, Rough Sets.

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327 An Environmental Impact Tool to Assess National Energy Scenarios

Authors: R. Taviv, A.C. Brent, H. Fortuin

Abstract:

The Long-range Energy and Alternatives Planning (LEAP) energy planning system has been developed for South Africa, for the 2005 base year and a limited number of plausible future scenarios that may have significant implications (negative or positive) in terms of environmental impacts. The system quantifies the national energy demand for the domestic, commercial, transport, industry and agriculture sectors, the supply of electricity and liquid fuels, and the resulting emissions. The South African National Energy Research Institute (SANERI) identified the need to develop an environmental assessment tool, based on the LEAP energy planning system, to provide decision-makers and stakeholders with the necessary understanding of the environmental impacts associated with different energy scenarios. A comprehensive analysis of indicators that are used internationally and in South Africa was done and the available data was accessed to select a reasonable number of indicators that could be utilized in energy planning. A consultative process was followed to determine the needs of different stakeholders on the required indicators and also the most suitable form of reporting. This paper demonstrates the application of Energy Environmental Sustainability Indicators (EESIs) as part of the developed tool, which assists with the identification of the environmental consequences of energy generation and use scenarios and thereby promotes sustainability, since environmental considerations can then be integrated into the preparation and adoption of policies, plans, programs and projects. Recommendations are made to refine the tool further for South Africa.

Keywords: Energy modeling, LEAP, environmental impact, environmental indicators, energy sector emissions, sustainable development, South Africa

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326 Procedure for Impact Testing of Fused Recycled Glass

Authors: David Halley, Tyra Oseng-Rees, Luca Pagano, Juan A Ferriz-Papi

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Recycled glass material is made from 100% recycled bottle glass and consumes less energy than re-melt technology. It also uses no additives in the manufacturing process allowing the recycled glass material, in principal, to go back to the recycling stream after end-of-use, contributing to the circular economy with a low ecological impact. The aim of this paper is to investigate the procedure for testing the recycled glass material for impact resistance, so it can be applied to pavements and other surfaces which are at risk of impact during service. A review of different impact test procedures for construction materials was undertaken, comparing methodologies and international standards applied to other materials such as natural stone, ceramics and glass. A drop weight impact testing machine was designed and manufactured in-house to perform these tests. As a case study, samples of the recycled glass material were manufactured with two different thicknesses and tested. The impact energy was calculated theoretically, obtaining results with 5 and 10 J. The results on the material were subsequently discussed. Improvements on the procedure can be made using high speed video technology to calculate velocity just before and immediately after the impact to know the absorbed energy. The initial results obtained in this procedure were positive although repeatability needs to be developed to obtain a correlation of results and finally be able to validate the procedure. The experiment with samples showed the practicality of this procedure and application to the recycled glass material impact testing although further research needs to be developed.

Keywords: Construction materials, drop weight impact, impact testing, recycled glass.

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325 On Methodologies for Analysing Sickness Absence Data: An Insight into a New Method

Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Päivi Leino-Arjas, Kustaa Piha, Akseli Aittomäki, Peppiina Saastamoinen, Ossi Rahkonen, Eero Lahelma

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Sickness absence represents a major economic and social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model applicability to complicated longitudinal data.

Keywords: Sickness absence, longitudinal data, methodologies, mix-distribution model.

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324 Using Field Indices of Rill and Gully in order to Erosion Estimating and Sediment Analysis (Case Study: Menderjan Watershed in Isfahan Province, Iran)

Authors: Masoud Nasri, Sadat Feiznia, Mohammad Jafari, Hasan Ahmadi

Abstract:

Today, incorrect use of lands and land use changes, excessive grazing, no suitable using of agricultural farms, plowing on steep slopes, road construct, building construct, mine excavation etc have been caused increasing of soil erosion and sediment yield. For erosion and sediment estimation one can use statistical and empirical methods. This needs to identify land unit map and the map of effective factors. However, these empirical methods are usually time consuming and do not give accurate estimation of erosion. In this study, we applied GIS techniques to estimate erosion and sediment of Menderjan watershed at upstream Zayandehrud river in center of Iran. Erosion faces at each land unit were defined on the basis of land use, geology and land unit map using GIS. The UTM coordinates of each erosion type that showed more erosion amounts such as rills and gullies were inserted in GIS using GPS data. The frequency of erosion indicators at each land unit, land use and their sediment yield of these indices were calculated. Also using tendency analysis of sediment yield changes in watershed outlet (Menderjan hydrometric gauge station), was calculated related parameters and estimation errors. The results of this study according to implemented watershed management projects can be used for more rapid and more accurate estimation of erosion than traditional methods. These results can also be used for regional erosion assessment and can be used for remote sensing image processing.

Keywords: Erosion and sedimentation, Gully, Rill, GIS, GPS, Menderjan Watershed

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323 Allometric Models for Biomass Estimation in Savanna Woodland Area, Niger State, Nigeria

Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

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The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. F-test values for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: Allometriy, biomass, carbon stock, model, regression equation, woodland, inventory.

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322 Resilient Manufacturing: Use of Augmented Reality to Advance Training and Operating Practices in Manual Assembly

Authors: L. C. Moreira, M. Kauffman

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This paper outlines the results of an experimental research on deploying an emerging augmented reality (AR) system for real-time task assistance (or work instructions) of highly customised and high-risk manual operations. The focus is on human operators’ training effectiveness and performance and the aim is to test if such technologies can support enhancing the knowledge retention levels and accuracy of task execution to improve health and safety (H&S). An AR enhanced assembly method is proposed and experimentally tested using a real industrial process as case study for electric vehicles’ (EV) battery module assembly. The experimental results revealed that the proposed method improved the training practices and performance through increases in the knowledge retention levels from 40% to 84%, and accuracy of task execution from 20% to 71%, when compared to the traditional paper-based method. The results of this research validate and demonstrate how emerging technologies are advancing the choice for manual, hybrid or fully automated processes by promoting the XR-assisted processes, and the connected worker (a vision for Industry 4 and 5.0), and supporting manufacturing become more resilient in times of constant market changes.

Keywords: Augmented reality, extended reality, connected worker, XR-assisted operator, manual assembly 4.0, industry 5.0, smart training, battery assembly.

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321 Prediction of Road Accidents in Qatar by 2022

Authors: M. Abou-Amouna, A. Radwan, L. Al-kuwari, A. Hammuda, K. Al-Khalifa

Abstract:

There is growing concern over increasing incidences of road accidents and consequent loss of human life in Qatar. In light to the future planned event in Qatar, World Cup 2022; Qatar should put into consideration the future deaths caused by road accidents, and past trends should be considered to give a reasonable picture of what may happen in the future. Qatar roads should be arranged and paved in a way that accommodate high capacity of the population in that time, since then there will be a huge number of visitors from the world. Qatar should also consider the risk issues of road accidents raised in that period, and plan to maintain high level to safety strategies. According to the increase in the number of road accidents in Qatar from 1995 until 2012, an analysis of elements affecting and causing road accidents will be effectively studied. This paper aims to identify and criticize the factors that have high effect on causing road accidents in the state of Qatar, and predict the total number of road accidents in Qatar 2022. Alternative methods are discussed and the most applicable ones according to the previous researches are selected for further studies. The methods that satisfy the existing case in Qatar were the multiple linear regression model (MLR) and artificial neutral network (ANN). Those methods are analyzed and their findings are compared. We conclude that by using MLR the number of accidents in 2022 will become 355,226 accidents, and by using ANN 216,264 accidents. We conclude that MLR gave better results than ANN because the artificial neutral network doesn’t fit data with large range varieties.

Keywords: Road Safety, Prediction, Accident, Model, Qatar.

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320 Flow Visualization and Characterization of an Artery Model with Stenosis

Authors: Anis S. Shuib, Peter R. Hoskins, William J. Easson

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Cardiovascular diseases, principally atherosclerosis, are responsible for 30% of world deaths. Atherosclerosis is due to the formation of plaque. The fatty plaque may be at risk of rupture, leading typically to stroke and heart attack. The plaque is usually associated with a high degree of lumen reduction, called a stenosis.It is increasingly recognized that the initiation and progression of disease and the occurrence of clinical events is a complex interplay between the local biomechanical environment and the local vascular biology. The aim of this study is to investigate the flow behavior through a stenosed artery. A physical experiment was performed using an artery model and blood analogue fluid. An axisymmetric model constructed consists of contraction and expansion region that follow a mathematical form of cosine function. A 30% diameter reduction was used in this study. The flow field was measured using particle image velocimetry (PIV). Spherical particles with 20μm diameter were seeded in a water-glycerol-NaCl mixture. Steady flow Reynolds numbers are 250. The area of interest is the region after the stenosis where the flow separation occurs. The velocity field was measured and the velocity gradient was investigated. There was high particle concentration in the recirculation zone. High velocity gradient formed immediately after the stenosis throat created a lift force that enhanced particle migration to the flow separation area.

Keywords: Stenosis artery, Biofluid mechanics, PIV

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319 Technological Advancement in Fashion Online Retailing: A Comparative Study of Pakistan and UK Fashion E-Commerce

Authors: Sadia Idrees, Gianpaolo Vignali, Simeon Gill

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The study aims to establish the virtual size and fit technology features to enhance fashion online retailing platforms, utilising digital human measurements to provide customised style and function to consumers. A few firms in the UK have launched advanced interactive fashion shopping domains for personalised shopping globally, aided by the latest internet technology. Virtual size and fit interfaces have a great potential to provide a personalised better-fitted garment to promote mass customisation globally. Made-to-measure clothing, consuming unstitched fabric is a common practice offered by fashion brands in Pakistan. This product is regarded as economical and sustainable to be utilised by consumers in Pakistan. Although the manual sizing system is practiced to sell garments online, virtual size and fit visualisation and recommendation technologies are uncommon in Pakistani fashion interfaces. A comparative assessment of Pakistani fashion brand websites and UK technology-driven fashion interfaces was conducted to highlight the vast potential of the virtual size and fit technology. The results indicated that web 2.0 technology adopted by Pakistani apparel brands has limited features, whereas companies practicing web 3.0 technology provide interactive online real-store shopping experience leading to enhanced customer satisfaction and globalisation of brands.

Keywords: E-commerce, mass customization, virtual size and fit, web 3.0 technology.

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318 Least Square-SVM Detector for Wireless BPSK in Multi-Environmental Noise

Authors: J. P. Dubois, Omar M. Abdul-Latif

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Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a statistical learning tool developed to a more complex concept of structural risk minimization (SRM). In this paper, SVM is applied to signal detection in communication systems in the presence of channel noise in various environments in the form of Rayleigh fading, additive white Gaussian background noise (AWGN), and interference noise generalized as additive color Gaussian noise (ACGN). The structure and performance of SVM in terms of the bit error rate (BER) metric is derived and simulated for these advanced stochastic noise models and the computational complexity of the implementation, in terms of average computational time per bit, is also presented. The performance of SVM is then compared to conventional binary signaling optimal model-based detector driven by binary phase shift keying (BPSK) modulation. We show that the SVM performance is superior to that of conventional matched filter-, innovation filter-, and Wiener filter-driven detectors, even in the presence of random Doppler carrier deviation, especially for low SNR (signal-to-noise ratio) ranges. For large SNR, the performance of the SVM was similar to that of the classical detectors. However, the convergence between SVM and maximum likelihood detection occurred at a higher SNR as the noise environment became more hostile.

Keywords: Colour noise, Doppler shift, innovation filter, least square-support vector machine, matched filter, Rayleigh fading, Wiener filter.

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317 Design of a Computer Vision Based Exercise Video Game for Senior Citizens

Authors: June Tay, Ivy Chia

Abstract:

There are numerous changes, both mental and physical, taking place when people age. We need to understand the different aspects required for healthy living, including meeting nutritional needs, regular physical activities to keep agility, sufficient rest and sleep to have physical and mental well-being, social engagement to avoid the risk of social isolation and depression, and access to healthcare to detect and manage chronic conditions. Promoting physical activities for an ageing population is necessary as many may have enjoyed sedentary lifestyles for some time. In our study, we evaluate the considerations when designing a computer vision video game for the elderly. We need to design some low-impact activities, such as stretching and gentle movements, because some elderly individuals may have joint pains or mobility issues. The exercise game should consist of simple movements that are easy to follow and remember. It should be fun and enjoyable so that they can be motivated to do some exercise. Social engagement can keep the elderly motivated and competitive, and they are more willing to engage in game exercises. Elderly citizens can compare their game scores and try to improve them. We propose a computer vision-based video game for the elderly that will capture and track the movement of the elderly hand pushing a ball on the screen into a circle. It can be easily set up using a PC laptop with a webcam. Our video game adhered to the design framework we employed, and it encompassed ease of use, a simple graphical interface, easy-to-play game exercise, and fun gameplay.

Keywords: Computer vision, video games, gerontology technology, caregiving.

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316 Profile of Viral Hepatitis in Saudi Arabia

Authors: A. A. Alshabanat, R. B. Albacker, A. A. Basalama, A. A. Bin Salamah, A. S. Alfrayh

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The study was conducted to investigate the profile of hepatitis in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and to determine which age group hepatitis viruses most commonly infect. The epidemiology of viral hepatitis in Saudi Arabia has undergone major changes, concurrent with major socioeconomic developments over the last two to three decades. This disease represents a major public health problem in Saudi Arabia resulting in the need for considerable healthcare resources. A retrospective cross sectional analysis of the reported cases of viral hepatitis was conducted based on the reports of The Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia about Hepatitis A, B and C infections in all regions from the period of January 2006 to December 2010. The study demonstrated that incidence of viral Hepatitis is decreasing, except for Hepatitis B that showed minimal increase. Of hepatitis A, B, and C, Hepatitis B virus (HBV) was the most predominant type, accounting for (53%) of the cases, followed by Hepatitis C virus (HCV) (30%) and HAV (17%). HAV infection predominates in children (5–14 years) with 60% of viral hepatitis cases, HBV in young adults (15–44 years) with 69% of viral hepatitis cases, and HCV in older adults (>45 years) with 59% of viral hepatitis cases. Despite significant changes in the prevalence of viral hepatitis A, B and C, it remains a major public health problem in Saudi Arabia; however, it showed a significant decline in the last two decades that could be attributed to the vaccination programs and the improved health facilities. Further researches are needed to identify the risk factors making a specific age group or a specific region in Saudi Arabia targeted for a specific type of hepatitis viruses.

Keywords: Epidemiology, Hepatitis, Saudi Arabia.

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315 Biokinetics of Coping Mechanism of Freshwater tilapia following Exposure to Waterborne and Dietary Copper

Authors: Jeng-Wei Tsai

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to understand the main sources of copper (Cu) accumulation in target organs of tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) and to investigate how the organism mediate the process of Cu accumulation under prolonged conditions. By measuring both dietary and waterborne Cu accumulation and total concentrations in tilapia with biokinetic modeling approach, we were able to clarify the biokinetic coping mechanisms for the long term Cu accumulation. This study showed that water and food are both the major source of Cu for the muscle and liver of tilapia. This implied that control the Cu concentration in these two routes will be correlated to the Cu bioavailability for tilapia. We found that exposure duration and level of waterborne Cu drove the Cu accumulation in tilapia. The ability for Cu biouptake and depuration in organs of tilapia were actively mediated under prolonged exposure conditions. Generally, the uptake rate, depuration rate and net bioaccumulation ability in all selected organs decreased with the increasing level of waterborne Cu and extension of exposure duration.Muscle tissues accounted for over 50%of the total accumulated Cu and played a key role in buffering the Cu burden in the initial period of exposure, alternatively, the liver acted a more important role in the storage of Cu with the extension of exposures. We concluded that assumption of the constant biokinetic rates could lead to incorrect predictions with overestimating the long-term Cu accumulation in ecotoxicological risk assessments.

Keywords: Biokinetics, Chronic exposure, Copper, Coping mechanism, Tilapia

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314 Behavioral Analysis of Team Members in Virtual Organization based on Trust Dimension and Learning

Authors: Indiramma M., K. R. Anandakumar

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Trust management and Reputation models are becoming integral part of Internet based applications such as CSCW, E-commerce and Grid Computing. Also the trust dimension is a significant social structure and key to social relations within a collaborative community. Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) is a difficult task in the context of distributed environment (information across different geographical locations) and multidisciplinary decisions are involved such as Virtual Organization (VO). To aid team decision making in VO, Decision Support System and social network analysis approaches are integrated. In such situations social learning helps an organization in terms of relationship, team formation, partner selection etc. In this paper we focus on trust learning. Trust learning is an important activity in terms of information exchange, negotiation, collaboration and trust assessment for cooperation among virtual team members. In this paper we have proposed a reinforcement learning which enhances the trust decision making capability of interacting agents during collaboration in problem solving activity. Trust computational model with learning that we present is adapted for best alternate selection of new project in the organization. We verify our model in a multi-agent simulation where the agents in the community learn to identify trustworthy members, inconsistent behavior and conflicting behavior of agents.

Keywords: Collaborative Decision making, Trust, Multi Agent System (MAS), Bayesian Network, Reinforcement Learning.

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313 Contamination of Organochlorine Pesticides in Nest Soil, Egg, and Blood of the Snail-eating Turtle (Malayemys macrocephala) from the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Authors: Sarun Keithmaleesatti, Pakorn Varanusupakul, Wattasit Siriwong, Kumthorn Thirakhupt, Mark Robson, Noppadon Kitana

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Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) are known to be persistent and bioaccumulative toxicants that may cause reproductive impairments in wildlife as well as human. The current study uses the snail-eating turtle Malayemys macrocephala, a long-lived animal commonly distribute in rice field habitat in central part of Thailand, as a sentinel to monitor OCP contamination in environment. The nest soil, complete clutch of eggs, and blood of the turtle were collected from agricultural areas in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand during the nesting season of 2007-2008. The novel methods for tissue extraction by an accelerated solvent extractor (ASE, for egg) and liquid-liquid extraction (for blood) have been developed. The nineteen OCP residues were analyzed by gas chromatography with micro-electron captured detector (GC-μECD). The validated methods have met requirements of the AOAC standard. The results indicated that significant amounts of OCPs are still contaminated in nest soil and eggs of the turtle even though the OCPs had been banned in this area for many years. This suggested the potential risk to health of wildlife as well as human in the area.

Keywords: Gas chromatography, persistent organic pollutants, rice field, sentinel species.

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312 Wind Power Assessment for Turkey and Evaluation by APLUS Code

Authors: Ibrahim H. Kilic, A. B. Tugrul

Abstract:

Energy is a fundamental component in economic development and energy consumption is an index of prosperity and the standard of living. The consumption of energy per capita has increased significantly over the last decades, as the standard of living has improved. Turkey’s geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. Among the renewable sources, Turkey has very high wind energy potential. Information such as installation capacity of wind power plants in installation, under construction and license stages in the country are reported in detail. Some suggestions are presented in order to increase the wind power installation capacity of Turkey. Turkey’s economic and social development has led to a massive increase in demand for electricity over the last decades. Since the Turkey has no major oil or gas reserves, it is highly dependent on energy imports and is exposed to energy insecurity in the future. But Turkey does have huge potential for renewable energy utilization. There has been a huge growth in the construction of wind power plants and small hydropower plants in recent years. To meet the growing energy demand, the Turkish Government has adopted incentives for investments in renewable energy production. Wind energy investments evaluated the impact of feed-in tariffs (FIT) based on three scenarios that are optimistic, realistic and pessimistic with APLUS software that is developed for rational evaluation for energy market. Results of the three scenarios are evaluated in the view of electricity market for Turkey.

Keywords: APLUS, energy policy, renewable energy, wind power, Turkey.

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311 Numerical Analysis of the SIR-SI Differential Equations with Application to Dengue Disease Mapping in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Authors: N. A. Samat, D. F. Percy

Abstract:

The main aim of this study is to describe and introduce a method of numerical analysis in obtaining approximate solutions for the SIR-SI differential equations (susceptible-infectiverecovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) that represent a model for dengue disease transmission. Firstly, we describe the ordinary differential equations for the SIR-SI disease transmission models. Then, we introduce the numerical analysis of solutions of this continuous time, discrete space SIR-SI model by simplifying the continuous time scale to a densely populated, discrete time scale. This is followed by the application of this numerical analysis of solutions of the SIR-SI differential equations to the estimation of relative risk using continuous time, discrete space dengue data of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, comparing and displaying the results in graphs, table and maps. Results of the numerical analysis of solutions that we implemented offers a useful and potentially superior model for estimating relative risks based on continuous time, discrete space data for vector borne infectious diseases specifically for dengue disease. 

Keywords: Dengue disease, disease mapping, numerical analysis, SIR-SI differential equations.

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310 A Cost Effective Approach to Develop Mid-size Enterprise Software Adopted the Waterfall Model

Authors: M. N. Hasnine, M. K. H. Chayon, M. M. Rahman

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Organizational tendencies towards computer-based information processing have been observed noticeably in the third-world countries. Many enterprises are taking major initiatives towards computerized working environment because of massive benefits of computer-based information processing. However, designing and developing information resource management software for small and mid-size enterprises under budget costs and strict deadline is always challenging for software engineers. Therefore, we introduced an approach to design mid-size enterprise software by using the Waterfall model, which is one of the SDLC (Software Development Life Cycles), in a cost effective way. To fulfill research objectives, in this study, we developed mid-sized enterprise software named “BSK Management System” that assists enterprise software clients with information resource management and perform complex organizational tasks. Waterfall model phases have been applied to ensure that all functions, user requirements, strategic goals, and objectives are met. In addition, Rich Picture, Structured English, and Data Dictionary have been implemented and investigated properly in engineering manner. Furthermore, an assessment survey with 20 participants has been conducted to investigate the usability and performance of the proposed software. The survey results indicated that our system featured simple interfaces, easy operation and maintenance, quick processing, and reliable and accurate transactions.

Keywords: End-user Application Development, Enterprise Software Design, Information Resource Management, Usability.

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309 Examining the Perceived Usefulness of ICTs for Learning about Indigenous Foods

Authors: K. M. Ngcobo, S. D. Eyono Obono

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Science and technology has a major impact on many societal domains such as communication, medicine, food, transportation, etc. However, this dominance of modern technology can have a negative unintended impact on indigenous systems, and in particular on indigenous foods. This problem serves as a motivation to this study whose aim is to examine the perceptions of learners on the usefulness of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) for learning about indigenous foods. This aim will be subdivided into two types of research objectives. The design and identification of theories and models will be achieved using literature content analysis. The objective on the empirical testing of such theories and models will be achieved through the survey of Hospitality studies learners from different schools in the iLembe and Umgungundlovu Districts of the South African Kwazulu-Natal province. SPSS is used to quantitatively analyze the data collected by the questionnaire of this survey using descriptive statistics and Pearson correlations after the assessment of the validity and the reliability of the data. The main hypothesis behind this study is that there is a connection between the demographics of learners, their perceptions on the usefulness of ICTs for learning about indigenous foods, and the following personality and eLearning related theories constructs: Computer self-efficacy, Trust in ICT systems, and Conscientiousness; as suggested by existing studies on learning theories. This hypothesis was fully confirmed by the survey conducted by this study except for the demographic factors where gender and age were not found to be determinant factors of learners’ perceptions on the usefulness of ICTs for learning about indigenous foods.

Keywords: E-learning, Indigenous Foods, Information and Communication Technologies, Learning Theories, Personality.

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308 Ethnobotanical Survey of Vegetable Plants Traditionally Used in Kalasin Thailand

Authors: Aree Thongpukdee, Chockpisit Thepsithar, Chuthalak Thammaso

Abstract:

Use of plants grown in local area for edible has a long tradition in different culture. The indigenous knowledge such as usage of plants as vegetables by local people is risk to disappear when no records are done. In order to conserve and transfer this valuable heritage to the new generation, ethnobotanical study should be investigated and documented. The survey of vegetable plants traditionally used was carried out in the year 2012. Information was accumulated via questionnaires and oral interviewing from 100 people living in 36 villages of 9 districts in Amphoe Huai Mek, Kalasin, Thailand. Local plant names, utilized parts and preparation methods of the plants were recorded. Each mentioned plant species were collected and voucher specimens were prepared. A total of 55 vegetable plant species belonging to 34 families and 54 genera were identified. The plant habits were tree, shrub, herb, climber, and shrubby fern at 21.82%, 18.18%, 38.18%, 20.00% and 1.82% respectively. The most encountered vegetable plant families were Leguminosae (20%), Cucurbitaceae (7.27%), Apiaceae (5.45%), whereas families with 3.64% uses were Araceae, Bignoniaceae, Lamiaceae, Passifloraceae, Piperaceae and Solanaceae. The most common consumptions were fresh or brief boiled young shoot or young leaf as side dishes of ‘jaeo, laab, namprik, pon’ or curries. Most locally known vegetables included 45% of the studied plants which grow along road side, backyard garden, hedgerow, open forest and rice field.

Keywords: Ethnobotanical survey, Thailand, vegetable plants.

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307 Simulation and Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Separation by Piperazine Blended Solutions Using E-NRTL and Peng-Robinson Models: A Study of Regeneration Heat Duty

Authors: Arash Esmaeili, Zhibang Liu, Yang Xiang, Jimmy Yun, Lei Shao

Abstract:

High pressure carbon dioxide (CO2) absorption from a specific off-gas in a conventional column has been evaluated for the environmental concerns by the Aspen HYSYS simulator using a wide range of single absorbents and piperazine (PZ) blended solutions to estimate the outlet CO2 concentration, CO2 loading, reboiler power supply and regeneration heat duty to choose the most efficient solution in terms of CO2 removal and required heat duty. The property package, which is compatible with all applied solutions for the simulation in this study, estimates the properties based on electrolyte non-random two-liquid (E-NRTL) model for electrolyte thermodynamics and Peng-Robinson equation of state for vapor phase and liquid hydrocarbon phase properties. The results of the simulation indicate that PZ in addition to the mixture of PZ and monoethanolamine (MEA) demand the highest regeneration heat duty compared with other studied single and blended amine solutions respectively. The blended amine solutions with the lowest PZ concentrations (5wt% and 10wt%) were considered and compared to reduce the cost of process, among which the blended solution of 10wt%PZ+35wt%MDEA (methyldiethanolamine) was found as the most appropriate solution in terms of CO2 content in the outlet gas, rich-CO2 loading and regeneration heat duty.

Keywords: Absorption, amine solutions, Aspen HYSYS, CO2 loading, piperazine, regeneration heat duty.

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306 Dynamic Stability Assessment of Different Wheel Sized Bicycles Based on Current Frame Design Practice with ISO Requirement for Bicycle Safety

Authors: Milan Paudel, Fook Fah Yap, Anil K. Bastola

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The difficulties in riding small wheel bicycles and their lesser stability have been perceived for a long time. Although small wheel bicycles are designed using the similar approach and guidelines that have worked well for big wheel bicycles, the performance of the big wheelers and the smaller wheelers are markedly different. Since both the big wheelers and small wheelers have same fundamental geometry, most blame the small wheel for this discrepancy in the performance. This paper reviews existing guidelines for bicycle design, especially the front steering geometry for the bicycle, and provides a systematic and quantitative analysis of different wheel sized bicycles. A validated mathematical model has been used as a tool to assess the dynamic performance of the bicycles in term of their self-stability. The results obtained were found to corroborate the subjective perception of cyclists for small wheel bicycles. The current approach for small wheel bicycle design requires higher speed to be self-stable. However, it was found that increasing the headtube angle and selecting a proper trail could improve the dynamic performance of small wheel bicycles. A range of parameters for front steering geometry has been identified for small wheel bicycles that have comparable stability as big wheel bicycles. Interestingly, most of the identified geometries are found to be beyond the ISO recommended range and seem to counter the current approach of small wheel bicycle design. Therefore, it was successfully shown that the guidelines for big wheelers do not translate directly to small wheelers, but careful selection of the front geometry could make small wheel bicycles as stable as big wheel bicycles.

Keywords: Big wheel bicycle, design approach, ISO requirements, small wheel bicycle, stability and performance.

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305 Flow Regime Characterization in a Diseased Artery Model

Authors: Anis S. Shuib, Peter R. Hoskins, William J. Easson

Abstract:

Cardiovascular disease mostly in the form of atherosclerosis is responsible for 30% of all world deaths amounting to 17 million people per year. Atherosclerosis is due to the formation of plaque. The fatty plaque may be at risk of rupture, leading typically to stroke and heart attack. The plaque is usually associated with a high degree of lumen reduction, called a stenosis. The initiation and progression of the disease is strongly linked to the hemodynamic environment near the vessel wall. The aim of this study is to validate the flow of blood mimic through an arterial stenosis model with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package. In experiment, an axisymmetric model constructed consists of contraction and expansion region that follow a mathematical form of cosine function. A 30% diameter reduction was used in this study. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) was used to characterize the flow. The fluid consists of rigid spherical particles suspended in waterglycerol- NaCl mixture. The particles with 20 μm diameter were selected to follow the flow of fluid. The flow at Re=155, 270 and 390 were investigated. The experimental result is compared with FLUENT simulated flow that account for viscous laminar flow model. The results suggest that laminar flow model was sufficient to predict flow velocity at the inlet but the velocity at stenosis throat at Re =390 was overestimated. Hence, a transition to turbulent regime might have been developed at throat region as the flow rate increases.

Keywords: Atherosclerosis, Particle-laden flow, Particle imagevelocimetry, Stenosis artery

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304 Innovation in Information Technology Services: Framework to Improve the Effectiveness and Efficiency of Information Technology Service Management Processes, Projects and Decision Support Management

Authors: Pablo Cardozo Herrera

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In a dynamic market of Information Technology (IT) Service and with high quality demands and high performance requirements in decreasing costs, it is imperative that IT companies invest organizational effort in order to increase the effectiveness of their Information Technology Service Management (ITSM) processes through the improvement of ITSM project management and through solid support to the strategic decision-making process of IT directors. In this article, the author presents an analysis of common issues of IT companies around the world, with strategic needs of information unmet that provoke their ITSM processes and projects management that do not achieve the effectiveness and efficiency expected of their results. In response to the issues raised, the author proposes a framework consisting of an innovative theoretical framework model of ITSM management and a technological solution aligned to the Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) good practices guidance and ISO/IEC 20000-1 requirements. The article describes a research that proves the proposed framework is able to integrate, manage and coordinate in a holistic way, measurable and auditable, all ITSM processes and projects of IT organization and utilize the effectiveness assessment achieved for their strategic decision-making process increasing the process maturity level and improving the capacity of an efficient management.

Keywords: Innovation in IT services, ITSM processes, ITIL and ISO/IEC 20000-1, IT service management, IT service excellence.

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303 An Assessment of the Small Hydropower Potential of Sisakht Region of Yasuj

Authors: F. Boustani

Abstract:

Energy generated by the force of water in hydropower can provide a more sustainable, non-polluting alternative to fossil fuels, along with other renewable sources of energy, such as wind, solar and tidal power, bio energy and geothermal energy. Small scale hydroelectricity in Iran is well suited for “off-grid" rural electricity applications, while other renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar and biomass, can be beneficially used as fuel for pumping groundwater for drinking and small scale irrigation in remote rural areas or small villages. Small Hydro Power plants in Iran have very low operating and maintenance costs because they consume no fossil or nuclear fuel and do not involve high temperature processes. The equipment is relatively simple to operate and maintain. Hydropower equipment can adjust rapidly to load changes. The extended equipment life provides significant economic advantages. Some hydroelectric plants installed 100 years ago still operate reliably. The Polkolo river is located on Karun basin at southwest of Iran. Situation and conditions of Polkolo river are evaluated for construction of small hydropower in this article. The topographical conditions and the existence of permanent water from springs provide the suitability to install hydroelectric power plants on the river Polkolo. The cascade plant consists of 9 power plants connected with each other and is having the total head as 1100m and discharge about 2.5cubic meter per second. The annual production of energy is 105.5 million kwh.

Keywords: Hydropower potential, Iran, SHP, Yasuj.

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302 Relationship between Personality Traits and Postural Stability among Czech Military Combat Troops

Authors: K. Rusnakova, D. Gerych, M. Stehlik

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Postural stability is a complex process involving actions of biomechanical, motor, sensory and central nervous system components. Numerous joint systems, muscles involved, the complexity of sporting movements and situations require perfect coordination of the body's movement patterns. To adapt to a constantly changing situation in such a dynamic environment as physical performance, optimal input of information from visual, vestibular and somatosensory sensors are needed. Combat soldiers are required to perform physically and mentally demanding tasks in adverse conditions, and poor postural stability has been identified as a risk factor for lower extremity musculoskeletal injury. The aim of this study is to investigate whether some personality traits are related to the performance of static postural stability among soldiers of combat troops. NEO personality inventory (NEO-PI-R) was used to identify personality traits and the Nintendo Wii Balance Board was used to assess static postural stability of soldiers. Postural stability performance was assessed by changes in center of pressure (CoP) and center of gravity (CoG). A posturographic test was performed for 60 s with eyes opened during quiet upright standing. The results showed that facets of neuroticism and conscientiousness personality traits were significantly correlated with measured parameters of CoP and CoG. This study can help for better understanding the relationship between personality traits and static postural stability. The results can be used to optimize the training process at the individual level.

Keywords: Neuroticism, conscientiousness, postural stability, combat troops.

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301 Assessment of Conventional Drinking Water Treatment Plants as Removal Systems of Virulent Microsporidia

Authors: M. A. Gad, A. Z. Al-Herrawy

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Microsporidia comprises various pathogenic species can infect humans by means of water. Moreover, chlorine disinfection of drinking-water has limitations against this protozoan pathogen. A total of 48 water samples were collected from two drinking water treatment plants having two different filtration systems (slow sand filter and rapid sand filter) during one year period. Samples were collected from inlet and outlet of each plant. Samples were separately filtrated through nitrocellulose membrane (142 mm, 0.45 µm), then eluted and centrifuged. The obtained pellet from each sample was subjected to DNA extraction, then, amplification using genus-specific primer for microsporidia. Each microsporidia-PCR positive sample was performed by two species specific primers for Enterocytozoon bieneusi and Encephalitozoon intestinalis. The results of the present study showed that the percentage of removal for microsporidia through different treatment processes reached its highest rate in the station using slow sand filters (100%), while the removal by rapid sand filter system was 81.8%. Statistically, the two different drinking water treatment plants (slow and rapid) had significant effect for removal of microsporidia. Molecular identification of microsporidia-PCR positive samples using two different primers for Enterocytozoon bieneusi and Encephalitozoon intestinalis showed the presence of the two pervious species in the inlet water of the two stations, while Encephalitozoon intestinalis was detected in the outlet water only. In conclusion, the appearance of virulent microsporidia in treated drinking water may cause potential health threat.

Keywords: Removal, efficacy, microsporidia, drinking water treatment plants, PCR.

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300 A Machine Learning Based Framework for Education Levelling in Multicultural Countries: UAE as a Case Study

Authors: Shatha Ghareeb, Rawaa Al-Jumeily, Thar Baker

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In Abu Dhabi, there are many different education curriculums where sector of private schools and quality assurance is supervising many private schools in Abu Dhabi for many nationalities. As there are many different education curriculums in Abu Dhabi to meet expats’ needs, there are different requirements for registration and success. In addition, there are different age groups for starting education in each curriculum. In fact, each curriculum has a different number of years, assessment techniques, reassessment rules, and exam boards. Currently, students that transfer curriculums are not being placed in the right year group due to different start and end dates of each academic year and their date of birth for each year group is different for each curriculum and as a result, we find students that are either younger or older for that year group which therefore creates gaps in their learning and performance. In addition, there is not a way of storing student data throughout their academic journey so that schools can track the student learning process. In this paper, we propose to develop a computational framework applicable in multicultural countries such as UAE in which multi-education systems are implemented. The ultimate goal is to use cloud and fog computing technology integrated with Artificial Intelligence techniques of Machine Learning to aid in a smooth transition when assigning students to their year groups, and provide leveling and differentiation information of students who relocate from a particular education curriculum to another, whilst also having the ability to store and access student data from anywhere throughout their academic journey.

Keywords: Admissions, algorithms, cloud computing, differentiation, fog computing, leveling, machine learning.

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