Search results for: Coronal Hole Area Feed-Forward neural network models

Authors: Dursun Aydın

Abstract:

In this paper, estimation of the linear regression model is made by ordinary least squares method and the partially linear regression model is estimated by penalized least squares method using smoothing spline. Then, it is investigated that differences and similarity in the sum of squares related for linear regression and partial linear regression models (semi-parametric regression models). It is denoted that the sum of squares in linear regression is reduced to sum of squares in partial linear regression models. Furthermore, we indicated that various sums of squares in the linear regression are similar to different deviance statements in partial linear regression. In addition to, coefficient of the determination derived in linear regression model is easily generalized to coefficient of the determination of the partial linear regression model. For this aim, it is made two different applications. A simulated and a real data set are considered to prove the claim mentioned here. In this way, this study is supported with a simulation and a real data example.

Keywords: Partial Linear Regression Model, Linear RegressionModel, Residuals, Deviance, Smoothing Spline.

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Authors: Mujtaba Roshan, John A. Schormans

Abstract:

Quality of Experience (QoE) drives churn in the broadband networks industry, and good QoE plays a large part in the retention of customers. QoE is known to be affected by the Quality of Service (QoS) factors packet loss probability (PLP), delay and delay jitter caused by the network. Earlier results have shown that the relationship between these QoS factors and QoE is non-linear, and may vary from application to application. We use the network emulator Netem as the basis for experimentation, and evaluate how QoE varies as we change the emulated QoS metrics. Focusing on Video-on-Demand, we discovered that the reported QoE may differ widely for users of different age groups, and that the most demanding age group (the youngest) can require an order of magnitude lower PLP to achieve the same QoE than is required by the most widely studied age group of users. We then used a bottleneck TCP model to evaluate the capacity cost of achieving an order of magnitude decrease in PLP, and found it be (almost always) a 3-fold increase in link capacity that was required.

Keywords: Quality of experience, quality of service, packet loss probability, network capacity.

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Authors: Xiaoli Shen, Yuehui Chen

Abstract:

Interactions among proteins are the basis of various life events. So, it is important to recognize and research protein interaction sites. A control set that contains 149 protein molecules were used here. Then 10 features were extracted and 4 sample sets that contained 9 sliding windows were made according to features. These 4 sample sets were calculated by Radial Basis Functional neutral networks which were optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization respectively. Then 4 groups of results were obtained. Finally, these 4 groups of results were integrated by decision fusion (DF) and Genetic Algorithm based Selected Ensemble (GASEN). A better accuracy was got by DF and GASEN. So, the integrated methods were proved to be effective.

Keywords: protein interaction sites, features, sliding windows, radial basis functional neutral networks, genetic algorithm basedselected ensemble.

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Authors: Y. H. Tsai, Y. W. Chen

Abstract:

Facial features are frequently used to represent local properties of a human face image in computer vision applications. In this paper, we present a fast algorithm that can extract the facial features online such that they can give a satisfying representation of a face image. It includes one step for a coarse detection of each facial feature by AdaBoost and another one to increase the accuracy of the found points by Active Shape Models (ASM) in the regions of interest. The resulted facial features are evaluated by matching with artificial face models in the applications of physiognomy. The distance measure between the features and those in the fate models from the database is carried out by means of the Hausdorff distance. In the experiment, the proposed method shows the efficient performance in facial feature extractions and online system of physiognomy.

Keywords: Facial feature extraction, AdaBoost, Active shapemodel, Hausdorff distance

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Authors: Hamdi. A. Awad, Mohamed A. Al-Zorkany

Abstract:

Developing techniques for mobile robot navigation constitutes one of the major trends in the current research on mobile robotics. This paper develops a local model network (LMN) for mobile robot navigation. The LMN represents the mobile robot by a set of locally valid submodels that are Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs). Training these submodels employs Back Propagation (BP) algorithm. The paper proposes the fuzzy C-means (FCM) in this scheme to divide the input space to sub regions, and then a submodel (MLP) is identified to represent a particular region. The submodels then are combined in a unified structure. In run time phase, Radial Basis Functions (RBFs) are employed as windows for the activated submodels. This proposed structure overcomes the problem of changing operating regions of mobile robots. Read data are used in all experiments. Results for mobile robot navigation using the proposed LMN reflect the soundness of the proposed scheme.

Keywords: Mobile Robot Navigation, Neural Networks, Local Model Networks

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Authors: Khemanand Moheeput, Smita S. D. Goorah, Satish K. Ramchurn

Abstract:

We report a computational study of the spreading dynamics of a viral infection in a complex (scale-free) network. The final epidemic size distribution (FESD) was found to be unimodal or bimodal depending on the value of the basic reproductive number R0 . The FESDs occurred on time-scales long enough for intermediate-time epidemic size distributions (IESDs) to be important for control measures. The usefulness of R0 for deciding on the timeliness and intensity of control measures was found to be limited by the multimodal nature of the IESDs and by its inability to inform on the speed at which the infection spreads through the population. A reduction of the transmission probability at the hubs of the scale-free network decreased the occurrence of the larger-sized epidemic events of the multimodal distributions. For effective epidemic control, an early reduction in transmission at the index cell and its neighbors was essential.

Keywords: Basic reproductive number, epidemic control, scalefree network, viral infection.

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Authors: Sun Jiaojiao, Fu Jiayan

Abstract:

At present, in China, the research about the urban sustainability construction is still in the exploratory stage. The ecological problems of the coastal area are more sensitive and complicated. In the background of global warming with serious ecological damage, this paper deeply researches on the main characteristics of urban sustainability and measures how to build urban sustainability. Through combining regional environmental with economic ability along the coastal area, then authors put forward the system planning framework, construction strategy and the evaluation index system, in order to seek the way of building urban sustainability along coastal area in China.

Keywords: Urban sustainability, coastal areas, construction strategy, evaluation index system.

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Authors: Ashanie Guanathillake, Kithsiri Samarasinghe

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Networks consist of inexpensive, low power sensor nodes deployed to monitor the environment and collect data. Gathering information in an energy efficient manner is a critical aspect to prolong the network lifetime. Clustering  algorithms have an advantage of enhancing the network lifetime. Current clustering algorithms usually focus on global re-clustering and local re-clustering separately. This paper, proposed a combination of those two reclustering methods to reduce the energy consumption of the network. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm can apply to homogeneous as well as heterogeneous wireless sensor networks. In addition, the cluster head rotation happens, only when its energy drops below a dynamic threshold value computed by the algorithm. The simulation result shows that the proposed algorithm prolong the network lifetime compared to existing algorithms.

Keywords: Energy efficient, Global re-clustering, Local re-clustering, Wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: Mimi Hafizah Abdullah, Hanani Farhah Harun, Nik Ruzni Nik Idris

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With the implied volatility as an important factor in financial decision-making, in particular in option pricing valuation, and also the given fact that the pricing biases of Leland option pricing models and the implied volatility structure for the options are related, this study considers examining the implied adjusted volatility smile patterns and term structures in the S&P/ASX 200 index options using the different Leland option pricing models. The examination of the implied adjusted volatility smiles and term structures in the Australian index options market covers the global financial crisis in the mid-2007. The implied adjusted volatility was found to escalate approximately triple the rate prior the crisis.

Keywords: Implied adjusted volatility, Financial crisis, Leland option pricing models.

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Authors: O. Siriporn, S. Benjawan

Abstract:

This paper represents four unsupervised clustering algorithms namely sIB, RandomFlatClustering, FarthestFirst, and FilteredClusterer that previously works have not been used for network traffic classification. The methodology, the result, the products of the cluster and evaluation of these algorithms with efficiency of each algorithm from accuracy are shown. Otherwise, the efficiency of these algorithms considering form the time that it use to generate the cluster quickly and correctly. Our work study and test the best algorithm by using classify traffic anomaly in network traffic with different attribute that have not been used before. We analyses the algorithm that have the best efficiency or the best learning and compare it to the previously used (K-Means). Our research will be use to develop anomaly detection system to more efficiency and more require in the future.

Keywords: Unsupervised, clustering, anomaly, machine learning.

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Authors: Hai Ming Wong, Kuen Wai Ma, Lavender Yu Xin Yang, Yanqi Yang

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Objectives: In recent years, the Faculty of Dentistry of the University of Hong Kong have extended the implementation of 3D electronic models (e-models) into problem-based learning (PBL) of the Bachelor of Dental Surgery (BDS) curriculum, aiming at mutual enhancement of PBL teaching quality and the students’ skills in using e-models. This study focuses on the effectiveness of e-models serving as a tool to enhance the students’ skills and competences in PBL. Methods: The questionnaire surveys are conducted to measure 50 fourth-year BDS students’ attitude change between beginning and end of blended PBL tutorials. The response rate of this survey is 100%. Results: The results of this study show the students’ agreement on enhancement of their learning experience after e-model implementation and their expectation to have more blended PBL courses in the future. The potential of e-models in cultivating students’ self-learning skills reduces their dependence on others, while improving their communication skills to argue about pros and cons of different treatment options. The students’ independent thinking ability and problem solving skills are promoted by e-model implementation, resulting in better decision making in treatment planning. Conclusion: It is important for future dental education curriculum planning to cope with the students’ needs, and offer support in the form of software, hardware and facilitators’ assistance for better e-model implementation.

Keywords: Problem-Based learning, curriculum, dental education, 3-D electronic models.

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Authors: M. H. Sedaghat, A. Zamani, S. Morshedi, R. Janamiri, M. Safdari, I. Mahdavi, A. Hosseini, A. Hatampour

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Although lots of experiments have been done in enhanced oil recovery, the number of experiments which consider the effects of local and global heterogeneity on efficiency of enhanced oil recovery based on the polymer-surfactant flooding is low and rarely done. In this research, we have done numerous experiments of water flooding and polymer-surfactant flooding on a five spot glass micromodel in different conditions such as different positions of layers. In these experiments, five different micromodels with three different pore structures are designed. Three models with different layer orientation, one homogenous model and one heterogeneous model are designed. In order to import the effect of heterogeneity of porous media, three types of pore structures are distributed accidentally and with equal ratio throughout heterogeneous micromodel network according to random normal distribution. The results show that maximum EOR recovery factor will happen in a situation where the layers are orthogonal to the path of mainstream and the minimum EOR recovery factor will happen in a situation where the model is heterogeneous. This experiments show that in polymer-surfactant flooding, with increase of angles of layers the EOR recovery factor will increase and this recovery factor is strongly affected by local heterogeneity around the injection zone.

Keywords: Layered Reservoir, Micromodel, Local Heterogeneity, Polymer-Surfactant Flooding, Enhanced Oil Recovery.

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Authors: Hiroshi Yamakawa, Michiko Yoshida, Motohiro Tsuchiya

Abstract:

The recent development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) enables new ways of "democratic" decision-making such as a page-ranking system, which estimates the importance of a web page based on indirect trust on that page shared by diverse group of unorganized individuals. These kinds of "democracy" have not been acclaimed yet in the world of real politics. On the other hand, a large amount of data about personal relations including trust, norms of reciprocity, and networks of civic engagement has been accumulated in a computer-readable form by computer systems (e.g., social networking systems). We can use these relations as a new type of social capital to construct a new democratic decision-making system based on a delegation network. In this paper, we propose an effective decision-making support system, which is based on empowering someone's vote whom you trust. For this purpose, we propose two new techniques: the first is for estimating entire vote distribution from a small number of votes, and the second is for estimating active voter choice to promote voting using a delegation network. We show that these techniques could increase the voting ratio and credibility of the whole decision by agent-based simulations.

Keywords: Delegation, network centrality, social network, voting ratio.

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Authors: Khaoula Hidouri, Ali Benhmidene, Bechir Chouachi

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The purification of brackish seawater becomes a necessity and not a choice against demographic and industrial growth especially in third world countries. Two models can be used in this work: simple solar still and simple solar still coupled with a heat pump. In this research, the productivity of water by Simple Solar Distiller (SSD) and Simple Solar Distiller Hybrid Heat Pump (SSDHP) was determined by the orientation, the use of heat pump, the simple or double glass cover. The productivity can exceed 1.2 L/m²h for the SSDHP and 0.5 L/m²h for SSD model. The result of the global efficiency is determined for two models SSD and SSDHP give respectively 30%, 50%. The internal efficiency attained 35% for SSD and 60% of the SSDHP models. Convective heat coefficient can be determined by attained 2.5 W/m²°C and 0.5 W/m²°C respectively for SSDHP and SSD models.

Keywords: Productivity, efficiency, convective heat coefficient, SSD model, SSDHP model.

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Authors: Hussein A. Kazem, Abdulhakeem Abdullah Albaloshi, Ali Said Ali Al-Jabri, Khamis Humaid AlSaidi

Abstract:

This paper proposes different methods for estimation of the harmonic currents of the single-phase diode bridge rectifier. Both simple and advanced methods are compared and the models are put into a context of practical use for calculating the harmonic distortion in a typical application. Finally, the different models are compared to measurements of a real application and convincing results are achieved.

Keywords: Single-phase rectifier, line side Harmonics

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Authors: S. V. Kasmir Raja, P. Herbert Raj

Abstract:

The overlay approach has been widely used by many service providers for Traffic Engineering (TE) in large Internet backbones. In the overlay approach, logical connections are set up between edge nodes to form a full mesh virtual network on top of the physical topology. IP routing is then run over the virtual network. Traffic engineering objectives are achieved through carefully routing logical connections over the physical links. Although the overlay approach has been implemented in many operational networks, it has a number of well-known scaling issues. This paper proposes a new approach to achieve traffic engineering without full-mesh overlaying with the help of integrated approach and equal subset split method. Traffic engineering needs to determine the optimal routing of traffic over the existing network infrastructure by efficiently allocating resource in order to optimize traffic performance on an IP network. Even though constraint-based routing [1] of Multi-Protocol Label Switching (MPLS) is developed to address this need, since it is not widely tested or debugged, Internet Service Providers (ISPs) resort to TE methods under Open Shortest Path First (OSPF), which is the most commonly used intra-domain routing protocol. Determining OSPF link weights for optimal network performance is an NP-hard problem. As it is not possible to solve this problem, we present a subset split method to improve the efficiency and performance by minimizing the maximum link utilization in the network via a small number of link weight modifications. The results of this method are compared against results of MPLS architecture [9] and other heuristic methods.

Keywords: Constraint based routing, Link Utilization, Subsetsplit method and Traffic Engineering.

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Authors: Yansong Zhang, Xueyuan Li, Junjie Zhou, Xufeng Yin, Shihua Yuan, Shuxian Liu

Abstract:

Aiming at the verification of control algorithms for skid-steering vehicles, a vehicle simulation model of 6×6 electric skid-steering unmanned vehicle was established based on Trucksim and Simulink. The original transmission and steering mechanism of Trucksim are removed, and the electric skid-steering model and a closed-loop controller for the vehicle speed and yaw rate are built in Simulink. The simulation results are compared with the ones got by theoretical formulas. The results show that the predicted tire mechanics and vehicle kinematics of Trucksim-Simulink simulation model are closed to the theoretical results. Therefore, it can be used as an effective approach to study the dynamic performance and control algorithm of skid-steering vehicle. In this paper, a method of motion control based on feed forward control is also designed. The simulation results show that the feed forward control strategy can make the vehicle follow the target yaw rate more quickly and accurately, which makes the vehicle have more maneuverability.

Keywords: Skid-steering, Trucksim-Simulink, feedforward control, dynamics.

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Authors: Abu Bakar Sambah, Fusanori Miura

Abstract:

Remote sensing image processing, spatial data analysis through GIS approach, and analytical hierarchy process were introduced in this study for assessing the vulnerability area and inundation area due to tsunami hazard in the area of Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture, Japan. Appropriate input parameters were derived from GSI DEM data, ALOS AVNIR-2, and field data. We used the parameters of elevation, slope, shoreline distance, and vegetation density. Five classes of vulnerability were defined and weighted via pairwise comparison matrix. The assessment results described that 14.35km² of the study area was under tsunami vulnerability zone. Inundation areas are those of high and slightly high vulnerability. The farthest area reached by a tsunami was about 7.50km from the shoreline and shows that rivers act as flooding strips that transport tsunami waves into the hinterland. This study can be used for determining a priority for land-use planning in the scope of tsunami hazard risk management.

Keywords: AHP, GIS, remote sensing, tsunami vulnerability.

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Authors: Abhishek, Seema Devi, Jyoti Ohri

Abstract:

A mobile ad hoc network (MANET) represents a system of wireless mobile nodes that can self-organize freely and dynamically into arbitrary and temporary network topology. Unlike a wired network, wireless network interface has limited transmission range. Routing is the task of forwarding data packets from source to a given destination. Ad-hoc On Demand Distance Vector (AODV) routing protocol creates a path for a destination only when it required. This paper describes the implementation of AODV routing protocol using MATLAB-based Truetime simulator. In MANET's node movements are not fixed while they are random in nature. Hence intelligent techniques i.e. fuzzy and ANFIS are used to optimize the transmission range. In this paper, we compared the transmission range of AODV, fuzzy AODV and ANFIS AODV. For soft computing AODV, we have taken transmitted power and received threshold as input and transmission range as output. ANFIS gives better results as compared to fuzzy AODV.

Keywords: ANFIS, AODV, fuzzy, MANET, reactive routing protocol, routing protocol, Truetime.

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Authors: Vipin Pal, Girdhari Singh, R P Yadav

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As wireless sensor networks are energy constraint networks so energy efficiency of sensor nodes is the main design issue. Clustering of nodes is an energy efficient approach. It prolongs the lifetime of wireless sensor networks by avoiding long distance communication. Clustering algorithms operate in rounds. Performance of clustering algorithm depends upon the round time. A large round time consumes more energy of cluster heads while a small round time causes frequent re-clustering. So existing clustering algorithms apply a trade off to round time and calculate it from the initial parameters of networks. But it is not appropriate to use initial parameters based round time value throughout the network lifetime because wireless sensor networks are dynamic in nature (nodes can be added to the network or some nodes go out of energy). In this paper a variable round time approach is proposed that calculates round time depending upon the number of active nodes remaining in the field. The proposed approach makes the clustering algorithm adaptive to network dynamics. For simulation the approach is implemented with LEACH in NS-2 and the results show that there is 6% increase in network lifetime, 7% increase in 50% node death time and 5% improvement over the data units gathered at the base station.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Network, Clustering, Energy Efficiency, Round Time.

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Authors: Gurjinder Kaur, Yogesh Chaba, V. K. Jain

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The aim of this paper is to explore the security issues that significantly affect the performance of Mobile Adhoc Networks (MANET)and limit the services provided to their intended users. The MANETs are more vulnerable to Distributed Denial of Service attacks (DDoS) because of their properties like shared medium, dynamic topologies etc. A DDoS attack is a coordinated attempt made by malicious users to flood the victim network with the large amount of data such that the resources of the victim network are exhausted resulting in the deterioration of the network performance. This paper highlights the effects of different types of DDoS attacks in MANETs and categorizes them according to their behavior.

Keywords: Distributed Denial, Mobile Adhoc Networks

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Authors: Karim Heidari

Abstract:

Semantic Web Technologies enable machines to interpret data published in a machine-interpretable form on the web. At the present time, only human beings are able to understand the product information published online. The emerging semantic Web technologies have the potential to deeply influence the further development of the Internet Economy. In this paper we propose a scenario based research approach to predict the effects of these new technologies on electronic markets and business models of traders and intermediaries and customers. Over 300 million searches are conducted everyday on the Internet by people trying to find what they need. A majority of these searches are in the domain of consumer ecommerce, where a web user is looking for something to buy. This represents a huge cost in terms of people hours and an enormous drain of resources. Agent enabled semantic search will have a dramatic impact on the precision of these searches. It will reduce and possibly eliminate information asymmetry where a better informed buyer gets the best value. By impacting this key determinant of market prices semantic web will foster the evolution of different business and economic models. We submit that there is a need for developing these futuristic models based on our current understanding of e-commerce models and nascent semantic web technologies. We believe these business models will encourage mainstream web developers and businesses to join the “semantic web revolution."

Keywords: E-Commerce, E-Business, Semantic Web, XML.

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Authors: Nelson F.F. Ebecken, Gilberto C. Pereira

Abstract:

The objective of this work is to explicit knowledge on the interactions between the chlorophyll-a and nine meroplankton larvae of epibenthonic fauna. The studied case is the Arraial do Cabo upwelling system, Southeastern of Brazil, which provides different environmental conditions. To assess this information a network approach based in probability estimative was used. Comparisons among the generated graphs are made in the light of different water masses, application of Shannon biodiversity index, and the closeness and betweenness centralities measurements. Our results show the main pattern among different water masses and how the core organisms belonging to the network skeleton are correlated to the main environmental variable. We conclude that the approach of complex networks is a promising tool for environmental diagnostic.

Keywords: Coastal upwelling, Ecological networks, Plankton - interactions, Environmental analysis.

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Authors: Latha Parthiban, R. Subramanian

Abstract:

Heart disease (HD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the modern society. Medical diagnosis is an important but complicated task that should be performed accurately and efficiently and its automation would be very useful. All doctors are unfortunately not equally skilled in every sub specialty and they are in many places a scarce resource. A system for automated medical diagnosis would enhance medical care and reduce costs. In this paper, a new approach based on coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) was presented for prediction of heart disease. The proposed CANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach which is then integrated with genetic algorithm to diagnose the presence of the disease. The performances of the CANFIS model were evaluated in terms of training performances and classification accuracies and the results showed that the proposed CANFIS model has great potential in predicting the heart disease.

Keywords: CANFIS, genetic algorithms, heart disease, membership function.

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Authors: Mahmoud Gilany, Wael Al-Hasawi

Abstract:

Preliminary studies on Kuwait high voltage transmission system show significant increase in the short circuit level at some of the grid substations and some generating stations. This increase results from the growth in the power transmission systems in size and complexity. New generating stations are expected to be added to the system within the next few years. This paper describes the study analysis performed to evaluate the available and potential solutions to control SC levels in Kuwait power system. It also presents a modified planning of the transmission network in order to fulfill this task.

Keywords: Short circuit current, network splitting, fault current limiter, power transmission planning.

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Authors: Eugene Kindler

Abstract:

The present paper is oriented to problems of simulation of anticipatory systems, namely those that use simulation models for the aid of anticipation. A certain analogy between use of simulation and imagining will be applied to make the explication more comprehensible. The paper will be completed by notes of problems and by some existing applications. The problems consist in the fact that simulation of the mentioned anticipatory systems end is simulation of simulating systems, i.e. in computer models handling two or more modeled time axes that should be mapped to real time flow in a nondescent manner. Languages oriented to objects, processes and blocks can be used to surmount the problems.

Keywords: Anticipatory systems, Nested computer models, Discrete event simulation, Simula.

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Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić

Abstract:

The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.

Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.

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Authors: M. Santhalakshmi, P Suganthi

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have many advantages. Their deployment is easier and faster than wired sensor networks or other wireless networks, as they do not need fixed infrastructure. Nodes are partitioned into many small groups named clusters to aggregate data through network organization. WSN clustering guarantees performance achievement of sensor nodes. Sensor nodes energy consumption is reduced by eliminating redundant energy use and balancing energy sensor nodes use over a network. The aim of such clustering protocols is to prolong network life. Low Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy (LEACH) is a popular protocol in WSN. LEACH is a clustering protocol in which the random rotations of local cluster heads are utilized in order to distribute energy load among all sensor nodes in the network. This paper proposes Connected Dominant Set (CDS) based cluster formation. CDS aggregates data in a promising approach for reducing routing overhead since messages are transmitted only within virtual backbone by means of CDS and also data aggregating lowers the ratio of responding hosts to the hosts existing in virtual backbones. CDS tries to increase networks lifetime considering such parameters as sensors lifetime, remaining and consumption energies in order to have an almost optimal data aggregation within networks. Experimental results proved CDS outperformed LEACH regarding number of cluster formations, average packet loss rate, average end to end delay, life computation, and remaining energy computation.

Keywords: Wireless sensor network, connected dominant set, clustering, data aggregation.

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Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.

Abstract:

German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.

Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing

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Authors: Farrokh J., Azhar K. Mansur

Abstract:

There exists a strong correlation between efficient project management and competitive advantage for organizations. Therefore, organizations are striving to standardize and assess the rigor of their project management processes and capabilities i.e. project management maturity. Researchers and standardization organizations have developed several project management maturity models (PMMMs) to assess project management maturity of the organizations. This study presents a critical evaluation of some of the leading PMMMs against OPM3® in a multitude of ways to look at which PMMM is the most comprehensive model - which could assess most aspects of organizations and also help the organizations in gaining competitive advantage over competitors. After a detailed morphological analysis of the models, it is concluded that OPM3® is the most promising maturity model that can really provide a competitive advantage to the organizations due to its unique approach of assessment and improvement strategies.

Keywords: Project management maturity, project managemen tmaturity models, competitive advantage.

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