Search results for: return period

Authors: Ching-Feng Chen, Shih-Kai Chen

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The Floating Photovoltaic (FPV) system highlights economic benefits and energy performance to carbon dioxide (CO2) discharges. Due to land resource scarcity and many negligent water territories, such as reservoirs, dams, and lakes in Japan and Taiwan, both countries are actively developing FPV and responding to the pricing of the emissions trading systems (ETS). This paper performs a case study through a synthesis approach to compare the economic indicators between the FPVs of Taiwan’s Agongdian Reservoir and Japan’s Yamakura Dam. The research results show that the metrics of the system capacity, installation costs, bank interest rates, and ETS and Electricity Bills affect FPV operating gains. In the post-Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) phase, investing in FPV in Japan is more profitable than in Taiwan. The former’s positive net present value (NPV), eminent internal rate of return (IRR) (11.6%), and benefit-cost ratio (BCR) above 1 (2.0) at the discount rate of 10% indicate that investing the FPV in Japan is more favorable than in Taiwan. In addition, the breakeven point is modest (about 61.3%). The presented methodology in the study helps investors evaluate schemes’ pros and cons and determine whether a decision is beneficial while funding PV or FPV projects.

Keywords: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, Floating Photovoltaic, Emissions Trading Systems, Net Present Value, NPV, Internal Rate of Return, IRR, Benefit-Cost Ratio.

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Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

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In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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Authors: B. Marasović, S. Pivac, S. V. Vukasović

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Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the presence of transaction costs on the Croatian capital market is analyzed. The model applied in the paper is an extension of the standard portfolio mean-variance optimization model in which transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. This model allows different costs for different securities, and different costs for buying and selling. In order to find efficient portfolio, using this model, first, the solution of quadratic programming problem of similar size to the Markowitz model, and then the solution of a linear programming problem have to be found. Furthermore, in the paper the impact of transaction costs on the efficient frontier is investigated. Moreover, it is shown that global minimum variance portfolio on the efficient frontier always has the same level of the risk regardless of the amount of transaction costs. Although efficient frontier position depends of both transaction costs amount and initial portfolio it can be concluded that extreme right portfolio on the efficient frontier always contains only one stock with the highest expected return and the highest risk.

Keywords: Croatian capital market, Fractional quadratic programming, Markowitz model, Portfolio optimization, Transaction costs.

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Authors: A. Udomsakdigool, S. Bangsaranthip

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This paper presents an algorithm which combining ant colony optimization in the dynamic programming for solving a dynamic facility layout problem. The problem is separated into 2 phases, static and dynamic phase. In static phase, ant colony optimization is used to find the best ranked of layouts for each period. Then the dynamic programming (DP) procedure is performed in the dynamic phase to evaluate the layout set during multi-period planning horizon. The proposed algorithm is tested over many problems with size ranging from 9 to 49 departments, 2 and 4 periods. The experimental results show that the proposed method is an alternative way for the plant layout designer to determine the layouts during multi-period planning horizon.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, Dynamicprogramming, Dynamic facility layout planning, Metaheuristic

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Authors: Jawad Ahmad, Hee-Jun Kim

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This paper describes the design of a voltage based maximum power point tracker (MPPT) for photovoltaic (PV) applications. Of the various MPPT methods, the voltage based method is considered to be the simplest and cost effective. The major disadvantage of this method is that the PV array is disconnected from the load for the sampling of its open circuit voltage, which inevitably results in power loss. Another disadvantage, in case of rapid irradiance variation, is that if the duration between two successive samplings, called the sampling period, is too long there is a considerable loss. This is because the output voltage of the PV array follows the unchanged reference during one sampling period. Once a maximum power point (MPP) is tracked and a change in irradiation occurs between two successive samplings, then the new MPP is not tracked until the next sampling of the PV array voltage. This paper proposes an MPPT circuit in which the sampling interval of the PV array voltage, and the sampling period have been shortened. The sample and hold circuit has also been simplified. The proposed circuit does not utilize a microcontroller or a digital signal processor and is thus suitable for low cost and low power applications.

Keywords: Maximum power point tracker, Sample and hold amplifier, Sampling interval, Sampling period.

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Authors: Anant Oonsivilai, Kenedy A. Greyson

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The growth and interconnection of power networks in many regions has invited complicated techniques for energy management services (EMS). State estimation techniques become a powerful tool in power system control centers, and that more information is required to achieve the objective of EMS. For the online state estimator, assuming the continuous time is equidistantly sampled with period Δt, processing events must be finished within this period. Advantage of Kalman Filtering (KF) algorithm in using system information to improve the estimation precision is utilized. Computational power is a major issue responsible for the achievement of the objective, i.e. estimators- solution at a small sampled period. This paper presents the optimum utilization of processors in a state estimator based on KF. The model used is presented using Petri net (PN) theory.

Keywords: Kalman filters, model, Petri Net, power system, sequential State estimator.

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Authors: Jae Kyun Bang, Sung Jae Hwang, Chang Yong Ko, Chi Hyun Kim

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Prolonged immobilization leads to significant weakness and atrophy of the skeletal muscle and can also impair the recovery of muscle strength following injury. Therefore, it is important to minimize the period under immobilization and accelerate the return to normal activity. This study examined the effects of heat treatment and rest-inserted exercise on the muscle activity of the lower limb during knee flexion/extension. Twelve healthy subjects were assigned to 4 groups that included: (1) heat treatment + rest-inserted exercise; (2) heat + continuous exercise; (3) no heat + rest-inserted exercise; and (4) no heat + continuous exercise. Heat treatment was applied for 15 mins prior to exercise. Continuous exercise groups performed knee flexion/extension at 0.5 Hz for 300 cycles without rest whereas rest-inserted exercise groups performed the same exercise but with 2 mins rest inserted every 60 cycles of continuous exercise. Changes in the rectus femoris and hamstring muscle activities were assessed at 0, 1, and 2 weeks of treatment by measuring the electromyography signals of isokinetic maximum voluntary contraction. Significant increases in both the rectus femoris and hamstring muscles were observed after 2 weeks of treatment only when both heat treatment and rest-inserted exercise were performed. These results suggest that combination of various treatment techniques, such as heat treatment and rest-inserted exercise, may expedite the recovery of muscle strength following immobilization.

Keywords: Electromyography, Heat Treatment, Muscle, Rest-Inserted Exercise.

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Authors: Rasheed A. Adebayo, Mehluli M. Moyo, Ignatius V. Nsahlai

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Ruminants are known to relish roughage for productivity but the effect of its quality on digesta load in rumen, omasum, abomasum and other distal organs of the digestive tract is yet unknown. Reticulorumen fill is a strong indicator for long-term control of intake in ruminants. As such, the measurement and prediction of digesta load in these compartments may be crucial to productivity in the ruminant industry. The current study aimed at determining the effect of (a) diet quality on digesta load in digestive organs of goats, and (b) period of meal termination on the reticulorumen fill and digesta load in other distal compartments of the digestive tract of goats. Goats were fed with urea-treated hay (UTH), urea-sprayed hay (USH) and non-treated hay (NTH). At the end of eight weeks of a feeding trial period, upon termination of a meal in the morning, afternoon or evening, all goats were slaughtered in random groups of three per day to measure reticulorumen fill and digesta loads in other distal compartments of the digestive tract. Both diet quality and period affected (P < 0.05) the measure of reticulorumen fill. However, reticulorumen fill in the evening was larger (P < 0.05) than afternoon, while afternoon was similar (P > 0.05) to morning. Also, diet quality affected (P < 0.05) the wet omasal digesta load, wet abomasum, dry abomasum and dry caecum digesta loads but did not affect (P > 0.05) both wet and dry digesta loads in other compartments of the digestive tract. Period of measurement did not affect (P > 0.05) the wet omasal digesta load, and both wet and dry digesta loads in other compartments of the digestive tract except wet abomasum digesta load (P < 0.05) and dry caecum digesta load (P < 0.05). Both wet and dry reticulorumen fill were correlated (P < 0.05) with omasum (r = 0.623) and (r = 0.723), respectively. In conclusion, reticulorumen fill of goats decreased by improving the roughage quality; and the period of meal termination and measurement of the fill is a key factor to the quantity of digesta load.

Keywords: Digesta, goats, meal termination, reticulorumen fill.

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Authors: Hasan Atak, Figen Çok

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Emerging Adulthood, the period during ages 18 to 25, is a new conceptualitation proposed by Arnett which is especially prevalent in the industrialized countries. Turkey is basically a developing country having a young population structure. Investigating the presence of such a life period in such a culture might be helpful in understanding educational and psychological needs of people who are in their twenties. With the aim of investigating Emerging Adulthood in Turkey, a well-known instrument (IDEA, 2003) was adapted to Turkish language and Turkish culture. The scale was administered to 296 participants between 15 and 34 ages and validity and reliability were conducted. Exploratory factor analysis revealed three subscales. Reliability coefficients of the scale (Cronbach a) was found as .69. Test-retest reliability coefficients was found for the scale as .81. Finally, “The IDEA" with 20 items was obtained to be used in the Turkish population. The instrument is ready to be administered among Turkish young people for the investigation of transition to adulthood, and whether such a emerging adulthood period really existed.

Keywords: Adaptation, Emerging Adulthood, Turkey, IDEA.

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Galina Dubetska, Roksolana Povoroznyuk

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In recent years, the problem of hyperuricemia is getting a particular importance due to its increased incidence in the world population. The aim of this study was to determine uriс acid level in blood serum, incidence of hyperuricemia among women in postmenopausal period and their association with body mass index and some components of metabolic syndrome (triglyceride, cholesterol, systolic and diastolic pressure). We examined 412 women in postmenopausal period. They were divided in to the following groups: I group (BMI = 18,5-24,9), II group (BMI = 25,0-29,9), III group (BMI = 30,0-34,9), IV group (BMI > 35). We determined uric acid level among women during postmenopausal period depending on their body mass index. The higher level of uric acid was found in patients with the maximal body mass index (BMI > 35). In the I group it was 277,52 ± 8,40; in the II group – 286,81 ± 7,79; in the III group – 291,81 ± 7,56; in the IV group – 327,17 ± 12,17. Incidence of hyperuricemia among women in the I group was 10,2%, in the II group – 15,9%; in the III group – 21,2%, in the IV group – 34,2%. We found an interdependence between an uric acid level and BMI in the examined women (r = 0,21, p < 0,05). We determined that the highest level of triglyceride (F = 18,62, p < 0,05), cholesterol (F = 3,64, p < 0,05), atherogenic coefficient (F = 22,64, p < 0,05), systolic (F = 10,5, p < 0,05) and diastolic pressure (F = 4,30, p < 0,05) was among women with hyperuricemia. It was an interdependence between an uric acid level and triglyceride (r = 0,26, p < 0,05), atherogenic coefficient (r = 0,24, p < 0,05) among women in postmenopausal period.

Keywords: Hyperuricemia, uric acid, body mass index, metabolic syndrome, triglyceride, cholesterol, atherogenic coefficient, systolic and diastolic pressure, women.

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Authors: Shunyi Li, Zhifang He, Xiangui Xue

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An Ivlev-type predator-prey system and stage-structured for predator concerning impulsive control strategy is considered. The conditions for the locally asymptotically stable prey-eradication periodic solution is obtained, by using Floquet theorem and small amplitude perturbation skills——when the impulsive period is less than the critical value. Otherwise, the system is permanence. Numerical examples show that the system considered has more complicated dynamics, including high-order quasi-periodic and periodic oscillating, period-doubling and period-halving bifurcation, chaos and attractor crisis, etc. Finally, the biological implications of the results and the impulsive control strategy are discussed.

Keywords: Stage-structured predator-prey system, Impulsive, Permanence, Bifurcation, Chaos.

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Authors: Tien-Shun Chan, Yung-Chung Chang, Cheng-Yu Chu, Wen-Hui Chen, Yuan-Lin Chen, Shun-Chong Wang, Chang-Chun Wang

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98% of the energy needed in Taiwan has been imported. The prices of petroleum and electricity have been increasing. In addition, facility capacity, amount of electricity generation, amount of electricity consumption and number of Taiwan Power Company customers have continued to increase. For these reasons energy conservation has become an important topic. In the past linear regression was used to establish the power consumption models for chillers. In this study, grey prediction is used to evaluate the power consumption of a chiller so as to lower the total power consumption at peak-load (so that the relevant power providers do not need to keep on increasing their power generation capacity and facility capacity). In grey prediction, only several numerical values (at least four numerical values) are needed to establish the power consumption models for chillers. If PLR, the temperatures of supply chilled-water and return chilled-water, and the temperatures of supply cooling-water and return cooling-water are taken into consideration, quite accurate results (with the accuracy close to 99% for short-term predictions) may be obtained. Through such methods, we can predict whether the power consumption at peak-load will exceed the contract power capacity signed by the corresponding entity and Taiwan Power Company. If the power consumption at peak-load exceeds the power demand, the temperature of the supply chilled-water may be adjusted so as to reduce the PLR and hence lower the power consumption.

Keywords: Gery system theory, grey prediction, chller.

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Authors: A. T. Kamzanova, G. Matthews, A. M. Kustubayeva, S. M. Jakupov

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of a range of EEG indices to time-on-task effects and to a workload manipulation (cueing), during performance of a resource-limited vigilance task. Effects of task period and cueing on performance and subjective state response were consistent with previous vigilance studies and with resource theory. Two EEG indices – the Task Load Index (TLI) and global lower frequency (LF) alpha power – showed effects of task period and cueing similar to those seen with correct detections. Across four successive task periods, the TLI declined and LF alpha power increased. Cueing increased TLI and decreased LF alpha. Other indices – the Engagement Index (EI), frontal theta and upper frequency (UF) alpha failed to show these effects. However, EI and frontal theta were sensitive to interactive effects of task period and cueing, which may correspond to a stronger anxiety response to the uncued task.

Keywords: brain activity, EEG, task engagement, vigilance task.

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Authors: M. Byzedi, B. Saghafian

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Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area, rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) <0.1, the percent of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation that explained 90.9% of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. Suitable multivariate regression models were evaluated for streamflow drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of regression models was 0.01. The results showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor with high correlation with deficit volume. Also, drought duration was not a suitable drought index for regional analysis.

Keywords: Iran, Streamflow drought, truncation level method, regional analysis.

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Authors: Iveta Řepková

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The aim of this paper is to estimate the efficiency of the Slovak commercial banks employing the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) window analysis approach during the period 2003-2012. The research is based on unbalanced panel data of the Slovak commercial banks. Undesirable output was included into analysis of banking efficiency. It was found that most efficient banks were Postovabanka, UniCredit Bank and Istrobanka in CCR model and the most efficient banks were Slovenskasporitelna, Istrobanka and UniCredit Bank in BCC model. On contrary, the lowest efficient banks were found Privatbanka and CitiBank. We found that the largest banks in the Slovak banking market were lower efficient than medium-size and small banks. Results of the paper is that during the period 2003-2008 the average efficiency was increasing and then during the period 2010-2011 the average efficiency decreased as a result of financial crisis.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, efficiency, Slovak banking sector, window analysis.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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A model is presented to find the optimal design of the mixed renewable warranty policy for non-repairable Weibull life products. The optimal design considers the conflict of interests between the customer and the manufacturer: the customer interests are longer full rebate coverage period and longer total warranty coverage period, the manufacturer interests are lower warranty cost and lower risk. The design factors are full rebate and total warranty coverage periods. Results showed that mixed policy is better than full rebate policy in terms of risk and total warranty coverage period in all of the three bathtub regions. In addition, results showed that linear policy is better than mixed policy in infant mortality and constant failure regions while the mixed policy is better than linear policy in ageing region of the model. Furthermore, the results showed that using burn-in period for infant mortality products reduces warranty cost and risk.

Keywords: Reliability, Mixed warranty policy, Optimization, Weibull Distribution.

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Authors: I. Oloyede

Abstract:

The COVID-19 dataset is obtained by extracting weather, longitude, latitude, ISO3666, cases and death of coronavirus patients across the globe. The data were extracted for a period of eight day choosing uniform time within the specified period. Then mapping of cases and deaths with reverence to continents were obtained. Bayesian Geostastical modelling was carried out on the dataset. The study found out that countries in the tropical region suffered less deaths/attacks compared to countries in the temperate region, this is due to high temperature in the tropical region.

Keywords: COVID-19, Bayesian, geostastical modelling, prior, posterior.

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Authors: Rupesh K. Gopal, Saroj K. Meher

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In this report we present a rule-based approach to detect anomalous telephone calls. The method described here uses subscriber usage CDR (call detail record) data sampled over two observation periods: study period and test period. The study period contains call records of customers- non-anomalous behaviour. Customers are first grouped according to their similar usage behaviour (like, average number of local calls per week, etc). For customers in each group, we develop a probabilistic model to describe their usage. Next, we use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. Then we determine thresholds by calculating acceptable change within a group. MLE is used on the data in the test period to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. These parameters are compared against thresholds. Any deviation beyond the threshold is used to raise an alarm. This method has the advantage of identifying local anomalies as compared to techniques which identify global anomalies. The method is tested for 90 days of study data and 10 days of test data of telecom customers. For medium to large deviations in the data in test window, the method is able to identify 90% of anomalous usage with less than 1% false alarm rate.

Keywords: Subscription fraud, fraud detection, anomalydetection, maximum likelihood estimation, rule based systems.

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Authors: M. Zaitoun, S. Cumming, A. Purcell

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This study aims to determine if audiologists' experience characteristics in ABR (Auditory Brainstem Response) reading is associated with their performance in interpreting ABR results. Fifteen ABR traces with varying degrees of hearing level were presented twice, making a total of 30. Audiologists were asked to determine the hearing threshold for each of the cases after completing a brief survey regarding their experience and training in ABR administration. Sixty-one audiologists completed all tasks. Correlations between audiologists’ performance measures and experience variables suggested significant associations (p < 0.05) between training period in ABR testing and audiologists’ performance in terms of both sensitivity and accuracy. In addition, the number of years conducting ABR testing correlated with specificity. No other correlations approached significance. While there are relatively few significant correlations between ABR performance and experience, accuracy in ABR reading is associated with audiologists’ length of experience and period of training. To improve audiologists’ performance in reading ABR results, an emphasis on the importance of training should be raised and standardized levels and period for audiologists training in ABR testing should also be set.

Keywords: ABR, audiology, performance, training, experience.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

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Dengue virus is transmitted from person to person through the biting of infected Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4 are four serotypes of this virus. Infection with one of these four serotypes apparently produces permanent immunity to it, but only temporary cross immunity to the others. The length of time during incubation of dengue virus in human and mosquito are considered in this study. The dengue patients are classified into infected and infectious classes. The infectious human can transmit dengue virus to susceptible mosquitoes but infected human can not. The transmission model of this disease is formulated. The human population is divided into susceptible, infected, infectious and recovered classes. The mosquito population is separated into susceptible, infected and infectious classes. Only infectious mosquitoes can transmit dengue virus to the susceptible human. We analyze this model by using dynamical analysis method. The threshold condition is discussed to reduce the outbreak of this disease.

Keywords: Transmission model, intrinsic incubation period, extrinsic incubation period, basic reproductive number, equilibriumstates, local stability.

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas

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Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.

Keywords: Short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems.

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Authors: Bahareh Khezri, Richard D. Webster

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In Southeast Asia, during the dry season (August to October) forest fires in Indonesia emit pollutants into the atmosphere. For two years during this period, a total of 67 samples of 2.5 μm particulate matters were collected and analyzed for total mass and elemental composition with ICP - MS after microwave digestion. A study of 60 elements measured during these periods suggest that the concentration of most of elements, even those usually related to crustal source, are extremely high and unpredictable during the haze period. In By contrast, trace element concentration in non - haze months is more stable and covers a lower range. Other unexpected events and their effects on the findings are discussed.

Keywords: Haze, ICP - MS, Particulate Patter, Transboundary Air Pollution.

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Authors: Görkem Arslan Kılınç

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Due to the high construction, operation, and maintenance costs of tall buildings, quantification of the area in the plan layout which provides a financial return is an important design criterion. The area of the “core and the structural system elements” does not provide financial return but must exist in the plan layout. Some characteristic items of tall office buildings affect the size of these areas. From this point of view, 15 tall office buildings were systematically investigated. The typical office floor plans of these buildings were re-produced digitally. The area of the “core and the structural system elements” in each building and the characteristic items of each building were calculated. These characteristic items are the size of the long and short plan edge, plan length/width ratio, size of the core long and short edge, core length/width ratio, core area, slenderness, building height, number of floors, and floor height. These items were analyzed by correlation and regression analyses. Results of this paper put forward that; characteristic items which affect the area of "core and structural system elements" are plan long and short edge size, core short edge size, building height, and the number of floors. A one-unit increase in plan short side size increases the area of the "core and structural system elements" in the plan by 12,378 m2. An increase in core short edge size increases the area of the core and structural system elements in the plan by 25,650 m2. Subsequent studies can be conducted by expanding the sample of the study and considering the geographical location of the building.

Keywords: Core area, correlation analysis, floor area, regression analysis, space efficiency, tall office buildings.

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Authors: Tomislav Stambolic, Anton Causevski

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The deficit of power supply in Macedonia is almost 30% or reached up to 3000 GWh in a year. The existing thermal and hydro power plants are not enough to cover the power and energy, so the import increases every year. Therefore, in order to have more domestic energy supply, the new trends in renewable and energy efficiency should be implemented in power sector. The paper gives some perspectives for development of the power system in Macedonia, taking into account the growth of electricity demand and in the same time with implementation of renewable and energy efficiency. The development of power system is made for the period up to 2030 with the period of every 5 years.

Keywords: Energy, Power System, Renewable, Efficiency

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Authors: Kazeem A. Adebiyi

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Despite many success stories of manufacturing safety, many organizations are still reluctant, perceiving it as cost increasing and time consuming. The clear contributor may be due to the use of lagging indicators rather than leading indicator measures. The study therefore proposes a combinatorial model for determining the best safety strategy. A combination theory and cost benefit analysis was employed to develop a monetary saving / loss function in terms value of preventions and cost of prevention strategy. Documentations, interviews and structured questionnaire were employed to collect information on Before-And-After safety programme records from a Tobacco company between periods of 1993-2001(for pre-safety) and 2002-2008 (safety period) for the model application. Three combinatorial alternatives A, B, C were obtained resulting into 4, 6 and 4 strategies respectively with PPE and Training being predominant. A total of 728 accidents were recorded for a 9 year period of pre-safety programme and 163 accidents were recorded for 7 years period of safety programme. Six preventions activities (alternative B) yielded the best results. However, all the years of operation experienced except year 2004. The study provides a leading resources for planning successful safety programme

Keywords: Combination, Manufacturing Safety, Monetary Savings, Prevention Strategies.

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Authors: S. Suyadi

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Sexual behavior and semen charactertistics were evaluated in young male Boer goats in tropical condition during time period of September to November 2009. The animal was let to have adaptation for five months after importation from Australian climate. A total of 20 bucks were observed for sexual behavior and ability of semen production. Out of this number, 4 faild to libido and 3 produced poor semen. The remaing 13 animals were divided into three groups according to the ages (11-13, 15-16 and 18-25 months). Sexual behavior consisting response time to female teaser, ejaculation time, fixing strenght to female and erection status were normaly observer in 13 bucks, and there was no significant difference between age groups. Semen characteristics from 13 bucks were in normal quality in the volume, sperm mass motility, individual motility, percentage of live- and abnormal sperm. We concluded that is possible to collect semen of Boer goats during the period of September to November under tropical condition. Collection during other time period should be analyzed.

Keywords: sexsual behavior, semen characteristics, Boer goats, tropical condition.

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Authors: Amaraja Taur, Pankaj Doshi, Hak Koon Yeoh

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The dripping modes for a Newtonian liquid of viscosity µ emanating from an inclined nozzle at flow rate Q is investigated experimentally. As the liquid flow rate Q increases, starting with period-1 with satellite drops, the system transitions to period-1 dripping without satellite, then to limit cycle before showing chaotic responses. Phase diagrams showing the changes in the transitions between the different dripping modes for different nozzle inclination angle q is constructed in the dimensionless (Q, µ) space.

Keywords: Dripping, inclined nozzle, phase diagram.

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Authors: D. Bheenick, M. Young, M. Elmussareh, A. Ali

Abstract:

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had unprecedented effects on the healthcare system in the UK. The pandemic has impacted every service within secondary care, including urology. Our objective is to determine how COVID-19 has influenced acute urology admissions in a busy district general hospital in the UK. To conduct the study, retrospective data of patients presenting acutely to the urology department were collected between January 13 to March 22, 2020 (pre-lockdown period) and March 23 to May 31, 2020 (lockdown period). The nature of referrals, types of admission encountered, and management required in accordance with the new set of protocols established during the lockdown period were analysed and compared to the same data prior to UK lockdown. Included in the study were 1092 patients. The results show that an overall reduction of 32.5% was seen in the total number of admissions. A marked decrease was seen in non-urological pathology as compared to other categories. Urolithiasis showed the highest proportional increase. Treatment varied proportionately to the diagnosis, with conservative management accounting for the most likely treatment during lockdown. However, the proportion of patients requiring interventions during the lockdown period increased overall. No comparative differences were observed during the two periods in terms of source of referral, length of stay and patient age. The results of the study concluded that the admission rate showed a decrease, with no significant difference in the nature and timing of presentation. Our department was able to continue providing effective management to patients presenting acutely during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Keywords: COVID-19, lockdown, admissions, urology

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Authors: U. Datta

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: Co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection.

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Authors: R. Reka, R. S. D. Wahidabanu

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to propose a novel technique to guarantee Quality of Service (QoS) in a highly dynamic environment. The MANET changes its topology dynamically as the nodes are moved frequently. This will cause link failure between mobile nodes. MANET cannot ensure reliability without delay. The relay node is selected based on achieving QoS in previous transmission. It considers one more factor Connection Existence Period (CEP) to ensure reliability. CEP is to find out the period during that connection exists between the nodes. The node with highest CEP becomes a next relay node. The relay node is selected dynamically to avoid frequent failure. The bandwidth of each link changed dynamically based on service rate and request rate. This paper proposes Active bandwidth setting up algorithm to guarantee the QoS. The series of results obtained by using the Network Simulator (NS-2) demonstrate the viability of our proposed techniques.

Keywords: Bandwidth, Connection Existence Period (CEP), Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET), Quality of Service (QoS), Relay node.

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