Search results for: Energy Prediction
3679 Challenges and Opportunities in Nuclear Energy: Promising Option in Turkey?
Authors: I. Mahariq, I. Arpacı
Abstract:
Dramatic growth in the population requires a parallel increase in the total installed capacity of electricity. Diversity, independency of resources and global warming call for installing renewable and nuclear energy plants. Several types of energy plants exist in Turkey; however, nuclear energy with its several attractive features is not utilized at all. This study presents the available energy resources in Turkey and reviews major challenges and opportunities in nuclear energy. At the end of this paper, some conclusions are stated.
Keywords: Nuclear, energy resources, challenges, opportunities, Turkey.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17343678 Computational Intelligence Hybrid Learning Approach to Time Series Forecasting
Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu
Abstract:
Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15463677 Energy Planning Analysis of an Agritourism Complex Based on Energy Demand Simulation: A Case Study of Wuxi Yangshan Agritourism Complex
Authors: Li Zhu, Binghua Wang, Yong Sun
Abstract:
China is experiencing the rural development process, with the agritourism complex becoming one of the significant modes. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the energy performance of agritourism complex. This study focuses on a typical case of the agritourism complex and simulates the energy consumption performance on condition of the regular energy system. It was found that HVAC took 90% of the whole energy demand range. In order to optimize the energy supply structure, the hierarchical analysis was carried out on the level of architecture with three main factors such as construction situation, building types and energy demand types. Finally, the energy planning suggestion of the agritourism complex was put forward and the relevant results were obtained.
Keywords: Agritourism complex, energy planning, energy demand simulation, hierarchical structure model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8763676 A Novel Prediction Method for Tag SNP Selection using Genetic Algorithm based on KNN
Authors: Li-Yeh Chuang, Yu-Jen Hou, Jr., Cheng-Hong Yang
Abstract:
Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) hold much promise as a basis for disease-gene association. However, research is limited by the cost of genotyping the tremendous number of SNPs. Therefore, it is important to identify a small subset of informative SNPs, the so-called tag SNPs. This subset consists of selected SNPs of the genotypes, and accurately represents the rest of the SNPs. Furthermore, an effective evaluation method is needed to evaluate prediction accuracy of a set of tag SNPs. In this paper, a genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to tag SNP problems, and the K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) serves as a prediction method of tag SNP selection. The experimental data used was taken from the HapMap project; it consists of genotype data rather than haplotype data. The proposed method consistently identified tag SNPs with considerably better prediction accuracy than methods from the literature. At the same time, the number of tag SNPs identified was smaller than the number of tag SNPs in the other methods. The run time of the proposed method was much shorter than the run time of the SVM/STSA method when the same accuracy was reached.
Keywords: Genetic Algorithm (GA), Genotype, Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), tag SNPs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17583675 Residual Life Prediction for a System Subject to Condition Monitoring and Two Failure Modes
Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.
Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20293674 The Cardiac Diagnostic Prediction Applied to a Designed Holter
Authors: Leonardo Juan Ramírez López, Javier Oswaldo Rodriguez Velasquez
Abstract:
We have designed a Holter that measures the heart´s activity for over 24 hours, implemented a prediction methodology, and generate alarms as well as indicators to patients and treating physicians. Various diagnostic advances have been developed in clinical cardiology thanks to Holter implementation; however, their interpretation has largely been conditioned to clinical analysis and measurements adjusted to diverse population characteristics, thus turning it into a subjective examination. This, however, requires vast population studies to be validated that, in turn, have not achieved the ultimate goal: mortality prediction. Given this context, our Insight Research Group developed a mathematical methodology that assesses cardiac dynamics through entropy and probability, creating a numerical and geometrical attractor which allows quantifying the normalcy of chronic and acute disease as well as the evolution between such states, and our Tigum Research Group developed a holter device with 12 channels and advanced computer software. This has been shown in different contexts with 100% sensitivity and specificity results.
Keywords: Entropy, mathematical, prediction, cardiac, holter, attractor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6873673 An Approach for the Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases
Authors: Nebi Gedik
Abstract:
Regardless of age or gender, cardiovascular illnesses are a serious health concern because of things like poor eating habits, stress, a sedentary lifestyle, hard work schedules, alcohol use, and weight. It tends to happen suddenly and has a high rate of recurrence. Machine learning models can be implemented to assist healthcare systems in the accurate detection and diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients. Improved heart failure prediction is one of the primary goals of researchers using the heart disease dataset. The purpose of this study is to identify the feature or features that offer the best classification prediction for CVD detection. The support vector machine classifier is used to compare each feature's performance. It has been determined which feature produces the best results.
Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, feature extraction, supervised learning, support vector machine.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1213672 Efficient Lossless Compression of Weather Radar Data
Authors: Wei-hua Ai, Wei Yan, Xiang Li
Abstract:
Data compression is used operationally to reduce bandwidth and storage requirements. An efficient method for achieving lossless weather radar data compression is presented. The characteristics of the data are taken into account and the optical linear prediction is used for the PPI images in the weather radar data in the proposed method. The next PPI image is identical to the current one and a dramatic reduction in source entropy is achieved by using the prediction algorithm. Some lossless compression methods are used to compress the predicted data. Experimental results show that for the weather radar data, the method proposed in this paper outperforms the other methods.
Keywords: Lossless compression, weather radar data, optical linear prediction, PPI image
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22363671 Dust Storm Prediction Using ANNs Technique (A Case Study: Zabol City)
Authors: Jamalizadeh, M.R., Moghaddamnia, A., Piri, J., Arbabi, V., Homayounifar, M., Shahryari, A.
Abstract:
Dust storms are one of the most costly and destructive events in many desert regions. They can cause massive damages both in natural environments and human lives. This paper is aimed at presenting a preliminary study on dust storms, as a major natural hazard in arid and semi-arid regions. As a case study, dust storm events occurred in Zabol city located in Sistan Region of Iran was analyzed to diagnose and predict dust storms. The identification and prediction of dust storm events could have significant impacts on damages reduction. Present models for this purpose are complicated and not appropriate for many areas with poor-data environments. The present study explores Gamma test for identifying inputs of ANNs model, for dust storm prediction. Results indicate that more attempts must be carried out concerning dust storms identification and segregate between various dust storm types.Keywords: Dust Storm, Gamma Test, Prediction, ANNs, Zabol.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21343670 Impact of Reflectors on Solar Energy Systems
Authors: J. Rizk, M. H. Nagrial
Abstract:
The paper aims to show that implementing different types of reflectors in solar energy systems, will dramatically improve energy production by means of concentrating and intensifying more sunlight onto a solar cell. The Solar Intensifier unit is designed to increase efficiency and performance of a set of solar panels. The unit was fabricated and tested. The experimental results show good improvement in the performance of the solar energy system.Keywords: Renewable Energy, Power optimization, Solar Energy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32433669 Towards Achieving Energy Efficiency in Kazakhstan
Authors: Aigerim Uyzbayeva, Valeriya Tyo, Nurlan Ibrayev
Abstract:
Kazakhstan is currently one of the dynamically developing states in its region. The stable growth in all sectors of the economy leads to a corresponding increase in energy consumption. Thus country consumes significant amount of energy due to the high level of industrialisation and the presence of energy-intensive manufacturing such as mining and metallurgy which in turn leads to low energy efficiency. With allowance for this the Government has set several priorities to adopt a transition of Republic of Kazakhstan to a “green economy”. This article provides an overview of Kazakhstan’s energy efficiency situation in for the period of 1991- 2014. First, the dynamics of production and consumption of conventional energy resources are given. Second, the potential of renewable energy sources is summarised followed by the description of GHG emissions trends in the country. Third, Kazakhstan’ national initiatives, policies and locally implemented projects in the field of energy efficiency are described.
Keywords: Energy efficiency in Kazakhstan, greenhouse gases, renewable energy, sustainable development.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 35273668 Prediction of Research Topics Using Ensemble of Best Predictors from Similar Dataset
Authors: Indra Budi, Rizal Fathoni Aji, Agus Widodo
Abstract:
Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.
Keywords: Combination, emerging topics, ensemble, forecasting, machine learning, prediction, research topics, similarity measure, time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21043667 Improving Air Temperature Prediction with Artificial Neural Networks
Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom
Abstract:
The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27033666 Potential of Energy Conservation of Daylight Linked Lighting System in India
Authors: Biswajit Biswas
Abstract:
Demand of energy is increasing faster than the generation. It leads shortage of power in all sectors of society. At peak hours this shortage is higher. Unless we utilize energy efficient technology, it is very difficult to minimize the shortage of energy. So energy efficiency program and energy conservation has an important role. Energy efficient technologies are cost intensive hence it is always not possible to implement in country like India. In the recent study, an educational building with operating hours from 10:00 a.m. to 05:00 p.m. has been selected to quantify the possibility of lighting energy conservation. As the operating hour is in daytime, integration of daylight with artificial lighting system will definitely reduce the lighting energy consumption. Moreover the initial investment has been given priority and hence the existing lighting installation was unaltered. An automatic controller has been designed which will be operated as a function of daylight through windows and the lighting system of the room will function accordingly. The result of the study of integrating daylight gave quite satisfactory for visual comfort as well as energy conservation.
Keywords: Lighting energy, energy efficiency, daylight, illumination, energy conservation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19383665 Pathway to Reduce Industrial Energy Intensity for Energy Conservation at Chinese Provincial Level
Authors: Shengman Zhao, Yang Yu, Shenghui Cui
Abstract:
Using logarithmic mean Divisia decomposition technique, this paper analyzes the change in industrial energy intensity of Fujian Province in China, based on data sets of added value and energy consumption for 35 selected industrial sub-sectors from 1999 to 2009. The change in industrial energy intensity is decomposed into intensity effect and structure effect. Results show that the industrial energy intensity of Fujian Province has achieved a reduction of 51% over the past ten years. The structural change, a shift in the mix of industrial sub-sectors, made overwhelming contribution to the reduction. The impact of energy efficiency’s improvement was relatively small. However, the aggregate industrial energy intensity was very sensitive to both the changes in energy intensity and in production share of energy-intensive sub-sectors, such as production and supply of electric power, steam and hot water. Pathway to reduce industrial energy intensity for energy conservation in Fujian Province is proposed in the end.
Keywords: Decomposition analysis, energy intensity, Fujian Province, industry.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13743664 Useful Lifetime Prediction of Rail Pads for High Speed Trains
Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park
Abstract:
Useful lifetime evaluation of railpads were very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of rail pads. In this study, we performed properties and accelerated heat aging tests of rail pads considering degradation factors and all environmental conditions including operation, and then derived a lifetime prediction equation according to changes in hardness, thickness, and static spring constants in the Arrhenius plot to establish how to estimate the aging of rail pads. With the useful lifetime prediction equation, the lifetime of e-clip pads was 2.5 years when the change in hardness was 10% at 25°C; and that of f-clip pads was 1.7 years. When the change in thickness was 10%, the lifetime of e-clip pads and f-clip pads is 2.6 years respectively. The results obtained in this study to estimate the useful lifetime of rail pads for high speed trains can be used for determining the maintenance and replacement schedule for rail pads.
Keywords: Rail pads, accelerated test, Arrhenius plot, useful lifetime prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27863663 Drainage Prediction for Dam using Fuzzy Support Vector Regression
Authors: S. Wiriyarattanakun, A. Ruengsiriwatanakun, S. Noimanee
Abstract:
The drainage Estimating is an important factor in dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a suitable method in drainage estimating.Keywords: Drainage Estimation, Prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12523662 Ground Heat Exchanger Modeling Developed for Energy Flows of an Incompressible Fluid
Authors: Paul Christodoulides, Georgios Florides, Panayiotis Pouloupatis, Vassilios Messaritis, Lazaros Lazari
Abstract:
Ground-source heat pumps achieve higher efficiencies than conventional air-source heat pumps because they exchange heat with the ground that is cooler in summer and hotter in winter than the air environment. Earth heat exchangers are essential parts of the ground-source heat pumps and the accurate prediction of their performance is of fundamental importance. This paper presents the development and validation of a numerical model through an incompressible fluid flow, for the simulation of energy and temperature changes in and around a U-tube borehole heat exchanger. The FlexPDE software is used to solve the resulting simultaneous equations that model the heat exchanger. The validated model (through a comparison with experimental data) is then used to extract conclusions on how various parameters like the U-tube diameter, the variation of the ground thermal conductivity and specific heat and the borehole filling material affect the temperature of the fluid.Keywords: U-tube borehole, energy flow, incompressible fluid, numerical model
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19893661 A Growing Natural Gas Approach for Evaluating Quality of Software Modules
Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Sandeep Khimta, Kiranpreet Kaur
Abstract:
The prediction of Software quality during development life cycle of software project helps the development organization to make efficient use of available resource to produce the product of highest quality. “Whether a module is faulty or not" approach can be used to predict quality of a software module. There are numbers of software quality prediction models described in the literature based upon genetic algorithms, artificial neural network and other data mining algorithms. One of the promising aspects for quality prediction is based on clustering techniques. Most quality prediction models that are based on clustering techniques make use of K-means, Mixture-of-Guassians, Self-Organizing Map, Neural Gas and fuzzy K-means algorithm for prediction. In all these techniques a predefined structure is required that is number of neurons or clusters should be known before we start clustering process. But in case of Growing Neural Gas there is no need of predetermining the quantity of neurons and the topology of the structure to be used and it starts with a minimal neurons structure that is incremented during training until it reaches a maximum number user defined limits for clusters. Hence, in this work we have used Growing Neural Gas as underlying cluster algorithm that produces the initial set of labeled cluster from training data set and thereafter this set of clusters is used to predict the quality of test data set of software modules. The best testing results shows 80% accuracy in evaluating the quality of software modules. Hence, the proposed technique can be used by programmers in evaluating the quality of modules during software development.
Keywords: Growing Neural Gas, data clustering, fault prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18493660 Investigating the Invalidity of the Law of Energy Conservation Based on Waves Interference Phenomenon Inside a Ringed Waveguide
Authors: M. Yusefzad
Abstract:
Law of energy conservation is one of the fundamental laws of physics. Energy is conserved, and the total amount of energy is constant. It can be transferred from one object to another and changed from one state to another. However, in the case of wave interference, this law faces important contradictions. Based on the presented mathematical relationship in this paper, it seems that validity of this law depends on the path of energy wave, like light, in which it is located. In this paper, by using some fundamental concepts in physics like the constancy of the electromagnetic wave speed in a specific media and wave theory of light, it will be shown that law of energy conservation is not valid in every condition and in some circumstances, it is possible to increase energy of a system with a determined amount of energy without any input.
Keywords: Power, law of energy conservation, electromagnetic wave, interference, Maxwell’s equations.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10313659 Deadline Missing Prediction for Mobile Robots through the Use of Historical Data
Authors: Edwaldo R. B. Monteiro, Patricia D. M. Plentz, Edson R. De Pieri
Abstract:
Mobile robotics is gaining an increasingly important role in modern society. Several potentially dangerous or laborious tasks for human are assigned to mobile robots, which are increasingly capable. Many of these tasks need to be performed within a specified period, i.e, meet a deadline. Missing the deadline can result in financial and/or material losses. Mechanisms for predicting the missing of deadlines are fundamental because corrective actions can be taken to avoid or minimize the losses resulting from missing the deadline. In this work we propose a simple but reliable deadline missing prediction mechanism for mobile robots through the use of historical data and we use the Pioneer 3-DX robot for experiments and simulations, one of the most popular robots in academia.
Keywords: Deadline missing, historical data, mobile robots, prediction mechanism.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17913658 Bayes Net Classifiers for Prediction of Renal Graft Status and Survival Period
Authors: Jiakai Li, Gursel Serpen, Steven Selman, Matt Franchetti, Mike Riesen, Cynthia Schneider
Abstract:
This paper presents the development of a Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status and survival period in renal transplantation using the patient profile information prior to the transplantation. The objective was to explore feasibility of developing a decision making tool for identifying the most suitable recipient among the candidate pool members. The dataset was compiled from the University of Toledo Medical Center Hospital patients as reported to the United Network Organ Sharing, and had 1228 patient records for the period covering 1987 through 2009. The Bayes net classifiers were developed using the Weka machine learning software workbench. Two separate classifiers were induced from the data set, one to predict the status of the graft as either failed or living, and a second classifier to predict the graft survival period. The classifier for graft status prediction performed very well with a prediction accuracy of 97.8% and true positive values of 0.967 and 0.988 for the living and failed classes, respectively. The second classifier to predict the graft survival period yielded a prediction accuracy of 68.2% and a true positive rate of 0.85 for the class representing those instances with kidneys failing during the first year following transplantation. Simulation results indicated that it is feasible to develop a successful Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status, but not the graft survival period, using the information in UNOS database.Keywords: Bayesian network classifier, renal transplantation, graft survival period, United Network for Organ Sharing
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20953657 Research on Regional Energy Saving Potential Based on Nonparametric Radial Adjustment and Slack Adjustment
Authors: Donglan Zha, Ning Ding
Abstract:
Taking the provincial capital, labor and energy as inputs, regional GDP as output from 1995 to 2007, the paper quantifies the vertical and lateral energy saving potential by introducing the radial adjustment and slack adjustment of DEA. The results show that by the vertical, the achievement of energy saving in 2007 is better than their respective historical performances. By horizontal, in 2007 it can be found that Tianjin, Liaoning, Shanghai and Yunnan do better in energy saving than other provinces. In national wide, the higher of energy efficiency, the larger of per capita GDP and the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy, the more open to the outside, the lower the energy saving potential demonstrates, while the energy endowment has negative effect on energy saving potential.Keywords: radial adjustment; slack adjustment; regional disparity; energy saving potential
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13233656 Neural Network Based Approach of Software Maintenance Prediction for Laboratory Information System
Authors: Vuk M. Popovic, Dunja D. Popovic
Abstract:
Software maintenance phase is started once a software project has been developed and delivered. After that, any modification to it corresponds to maintenance. Software maintenance involves modifications to keep a software project usable in a changed or a changing environment, to correct discovered faults, and modifications, and to improve performance or maintainability. Software maintenance and management of software maintenance are recognized as two most important and most expensive processes in a life of a software product. This research is basing the prediction of maintenance, on risks and time evaluation, and using them as data sets for working with neural networks. The aim of this paper is to provide support to project maintenance managers. They will be able to pass the issues planned for the next software-service-patch to the experts, for risk and working time evaluation, and afterward to put all data to neural networks in order to get software maintenance prediction. This process will lead to the more accurate prediction of the working hours needed for the software-service-patch, which will eventually lead to better planning of budget for the software maintenance projects.
Keywords: Laboratory information system, maintenance engineering, neural networks, software maintenance, software maintenance costs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11133655 Scenario Analysis of Indonesia's Energy Security by using a System-Dynamics Approach
Authors: Yudha Prambudia, Masaru Nakano
Abstract:
Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.
Keywords: Energy security, modeling, simulation, system dynamics.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21093654 Optimized Preprocessing for Accurate and Efficient Bioassay Prediction with Machine Learning Algorithms
Authors: Jeff Clarine, Chang-Shyh Peng, Daisy Sang
Abstract:
Bioassay is the measurement of the potency of a chemical substance by its effect on a living animal or plant tissue. Bioassay data and chemical structures from pharmacokinetic and drug metabolism screening are mined from and housed in multiple databases. Bioassay prediction is calculated accordingly to determine further advancement. This paper proposes a four-step preprocessing of datasets for improving the bioassay predictions. The first step is instance selection in which dataset is categorized into training, testing, and validation sets. The second step is discretization that partitions the data in consideration of accuracy vs. precision. The third step is normalization where data are normalized between 0 and 1 for subsequent machine learning processing. The fourth step is feature selection where key chemical properties and attributes are generated. The streamlined results are then analyzed for the prediction of effectiveness by various machine learning algorithms including Pipeline Pilot, R, Weka, and Excel. Experiments and evaluations reveal the effectiveness of various combination of preprocessing steps and machine learning algorithms in more consistent and accurate prediction.
Keywords: Bioassay, machine learning, preprocessing, virtual screen.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9683653 A Type-2 Fuzzy Model for Link Prediction in Social Network
Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi
Abstract:
Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.Keywords: Social Network, link prediction, granular computing, Type-2 fuzzy sets.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15593652 A Study on Prediction of Cavitation for Centrifugal Pump
Authors: Myung Jin Kim, Hyun Bae Jin, Wui Jun Chung
Abstract:
In this study, to accurately predict cavitation of a centrifugal pump, numerical analysis was compared with experimental results modeled on a small industrial centrifugal pump. In this study, numerical analysis was compared with experimental results modeled on a small industrial centrifugal pump for reliable prediction on cavitation of a centrifugal pump. To improve validity of the numerical analysis, transient analysis was conducted on the calculated domain of full-type geometry, such as an experimental apparatus. The numerical analysis from the results was considered to be a reliable prediction of cavitaion.Keywords: Centrifugal Pump, Cavitation, NPSH, CFD.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 42053651 Energy Management Techniques in Mobile Robots
Authors: G. Gurguze, I. Turkoglu
Abstract:
Today, the developing features of technological tools with limited energy resources have made it necessary to use energy efficiently. Energy management techniques have emerged for this purpose. As with every field, energy management is vital for robots that are being used in many areas from industry to daily life and that are thought to take up more spaces in the future. Particularly, effective power management in autonomous and multi robots, which are getting more complicated and increasing day by day, will improve the performance and success. In this study, robot management algorithms, usage of renewable and hybrid energy sources, robot motion patterns, robot designs, sharing strategies of workloads in multiple robots, road and mission planning algorithms are discussed for efficient use of energy resources by mobile robots. These techniques have been evaluated in terms of efficient use of existing energy resources and energy management in robots.
Keywords: Energy management, mobile robot, robot administration, robot management, robot planning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15363650 Energy Efficiency Analysis of Crossover Technologies in Industrial Applications
Authors: W. Schellong
Abstract:
Industry accounts for one-third of global final energy demand. Crossover technologies (e.g. motors, pumps, process heat, and air conditioning) play an important role in improving energy efficiency. These technologies are used in many applications independent of the production branch. Especially electrical power is used by drives, pumps, compressors, and lightning. The paper demonstrates the algorithm of the energy analysis by some selected case studies for typical industrial processes. The energy analysis represents an essential part of energy management systems (EMS). Generally, process control system (PCS) can support EMS. They provide information about the production process, and they organize the maintenance actions. Combining these tools into an integrated process allows the development of an energy critical equipment strategy. Thus, asset and energy management can use the same common data to improve the energy efficiency.
Keywords: Crossover technologies, data management, energy analysis, energy efficiency, process control.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 943