Search results for: Kalman filter prediction

Authors: Imene Atek, Abed M. Affoune, Hubert Girault, Pekka Peljo

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Due to the need for a rigorous mathematical model that can help to estimate kinetic properties for soluble-insoluble systems, through voltammetric experiments, a Nicholson Semi Analytical Approach was used in this work for modeling and prediction of theoretical linear sweep voltammetry responses for reversible, quasi reversible or irreversible electron transfer reactions. The redox system of interest is a one-step metal electrodeposition process. A rigorous analysis of simulated linear scan voltammetric responses following variation of dimensionless factors, the rate constant and charge transfer coefficients in a broad range was studied and presented in the form of the so called kinetic zones diagrams. These kinetic diagrams were divided into three kinetics zones. Interpreting these zones leads to empirical mathematical models which can allow the experimenter to determine electrodeposition reactions kinetics whatever the degree of reversibility. The validity of the obtained results was tested and an excellent experiment–theory agreement has been showed.

Keywords: Electrodeposition, kinetics diagrams, modeling, voltammetry.

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Authors: Christos Spandonidis, Stefanos Tsantilas, Elias Sedikos, Nektarios Galiatsatos, Fotios Giannopoulos, Panagiotis Papadopoulos, Nikolaos Demagos, Dimitrios Reppas, Christos Giordamlis

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In the present paper, a low cost, compact and modular Internet of Things (IoT) platform for air quality monitoring in urban areas is presented. This platform comprises of dedicated low cost, low power hardware and the associated embedded software that enable measurement of particles (PM2.5 and PM10), NO, CO, CO₂ and O₃ concentration in the air, along with relative temperature and humidity. This integrated platform acts as part of a greater air pollution data collecting wireless network that is able to monitor the air quality in various regions and neighborhoods of an urban area, by providing sensor measurements at a high rate that reaches up to one sample per second. It is therefore suitable for Big Data analysis applications such as air quality forecasts, weather forecasts and traffic prediction. The first real world test for the developed platform took place in Thessaloniki, Greece, where 16 devices were installed in various buildings in the city. In the near future, many more of these devices are going to be installed in the greater Thessaloniki area, giving a detailed air quality map of the city.

Keywords: Distributed sensor system, environmental monitoring, Internet of Things, IoT, Smart Cities.

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Authors: Takeshi Takeda

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The author conducted post-test analysis with the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code for an experiment using the ROSA/LSTF (rig of safety assessment/large-scale test facility) that simulated a 1% cold leg small-break loss-of-coolant accident under the failure of scram in a pressurized water reactor. The LSTF test assumed total failure of high-pressure injection system of emergency core cooling system. In the LSTF test, natural circulation contributed to maintain core cooling effect for a relatively long time until core uncovery occurred. The post-test analysis result confirmed inadequate prediction of the primary coolant distribution. The author created the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) for each component. The author investigated the influences of uncertain parameters determined by the PIRT on the cladding surface temperature at a certain time during core uncovery within the defined uncertain ranges.

Keywords: LSTF, LOCA, scram, RELAP5.

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Authors: Samir Khrais, Adel Mahammod Hassan , Amro Gazawi

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The aim of this research is to evaluate surface roughness and develop a multiple regression model for surface roughness as a function of cutting parameters during the turning of flame hardened medium carbon steel with TiN-Al2O3-TiCN coated inserts. An experimental plan of work and signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) were used to relate the influence of turning parameters to the workpiece surface finish utilizing Taguchi methodology. The effects of turning parameters were studied by using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method. Evaluated parameters were feed, cutting speed, and depth of cut. It was found that the most significant interaction among the considered turning parameters was between depth of cut and feed. The average surface roughness (Ra) resulted by TiN-Al2O3- TiCN coated inserts was about 2.44 μm and minimum value was 0.74 μm. In addition, the regression model was able to predict values for surface roughness in comparison with experimental values within reasonable limit.

Keywords: Medium carbon steel, Prediction, Surface roughness, Taguchi method

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Authors: Yudhajit Datta

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Behavioral aspects of experience such as will power are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous complexities involved. Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that will power of an individual affects the success achieved by them in life. It is also thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks in life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. This study is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network through a computational model. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. It is proposed that data pertaining to success of individuals be obtained from an experiment and the phenomenon of will be incorporated into the model, through data generated recursively using a relation between will and success characteristic to the model. An artificial neural network trained using part of the data, could subsequently be used to make predictions regarding data points in the rest of the model. The procedure would be tried for different models and the model where the networks predictions are found to be in greatest agreement with the data would be selected; and used for studying the relation between success and will.

Keywords: Will Power, Success, ANN, Time Series Prediction, Sliding Window, Computational Model, Behavioral Phenomena.

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Authors: R. Chanajaree, D. Luanwiset, K. Pongpratea

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Dye removal is an environmental concern because the textile industries have been increasing by world population and industrialization. Adsorption is the technique to find adsorbents to remove dyes from wastewater. This method is low-cost and effective for dye removal. This work tries to develop effective adsorbents using the computational approach because it will be able to predict the possibility of the adsorbents for specific dyes in terms of binding free energies. The computational approach is faster and cheaper than the experimental approach in case of finding the best adsorbents. All starting structures of dyes and adsorbents are optimized by quantum calculation. The complexes between dyes and adsorbents are generated by the docking method. The obtained binding free energies from docking are compared to binding free energies from the experimental data. The calculated energies can be ranked as same as the experimental results. In addition, this work also shows the possible orientation of the complexes. This work used two experimental groups of the complexes of the dyes and adsorbents. In the first group, there are chitosan (adsorbent) and two dyes (reactive red (RR) and direct sun yellow (DY)). In the second group, there are poly(1,2-epoxy-3-phenoxy) propane (PEPP), which is the adsorbent, and 2 dyes of bromocresol green (BCG) and alizarin yellow (AY).

Keywords: Dye removal, binding free energies, quantum calculation, docking.

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Authors: Jean François Chatelain, Imed Zaghbani, Joseph Monier

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The machining of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics has come to constitute a significant challenge for many fields of industry. The resulting surface finish of machined parts is of primary concern for several reasons, including contact quality and impact on the assembly. Therefore, the characterization and prediction of roughness based on machining parameters are crucial for costeffective operations. In this study, a PCD tool comprised of two straight flutes was used to trim 32-ply carbon fiber laminates in a bid to analyze the effects of the feed rate and the cutting speed on the surface roughness. The results show that while the speed has but a slight impact on the surface finish, the feed rate for its part affects it strongly. A detailed study was also conducted on the effect of fiber orientation on surface roughness, for quasi-isotropic laminates used in aerospace. The resulting roughness profiles for the four-ply orientation lay-up were compared, and it was found that fiber angle is a critical parameter relating to surface roughness. One of the four orientations studied led to very poor surface finishes, and characteristic roughness profiles were identified and found to only relate to the ply orientations of multilayer carbon fiber laminates.

Keywords: Roughness, Detouring, Composites, Aerospace

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

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An Artificial Neural Network based modeling technique has been used to study the influence of different combinations of meteorological parameters on evaporation from a reservoir. The data set used is taken from an earlier reported study. Several input combination were tried so as to find out the importance of different input parameters in predicting the evaporation. The prediction accuracy of Artificial Neural Network has also been compared with the accuracy of linear regression for predicting evaporation. The comparison demonstrated superior performance of Artificial Neural Network over linear regression approach. The findings of the study also revealed the requirement of all input parameters considered together, instead of individual parameters taken one at a time as reported in earlier studies, in predicting the evaporation. The highest correlation coefficient (0.960) along with lowest root mean square error (0.865) was obtained with the input combination of air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and mean relative humidity. A graph between the actual and predicted values of evaporation suggests that most of the values lie within a scatter of ±15% with all input parameters. The findings of this study suggest the usefulness of ANN technique in predicting the evaporation losses from reservoirs.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, evaporation losses, multiple linear regression, modeling.

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Authors: A. Zanaz, S. Yotte, F. Fouchal, A. Chateauneuf

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This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode corresponds to the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this consideration, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the voussoirs modulus variation is proposed. The most probable failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each variability level as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of variability, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increases with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young’s modulus of the segments is proven, taking it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: Masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault.

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Authors: Jiangyong Liu, Xiangxiang Xu, Bote Luo, Xiaoxue Luo, Jiang Zhu, Lingzhi Yi

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To address the problems of non-linearity and high randomness of the original power load sequence causing the degradation of power load forecasting accuracy, a short-term load forecasting method is proposed. The method is based on the least square support vector machine (LSSVM) optimized by an improved sparrow search algorithm combined with the variational mode decomposition proposed in this paper. The application of the variational mode decomposition technique decomposes the raw power load data into a series of intrinsic mode functions components, which can reduce the complexity and instability of the raw data while overcoming modal confounding; the proposed improved sparrow search algorithm can solve the problem of difficult selection of learning parameters in the LSSVM. Finally, through comparison experiments, the results show that the method can effectively improve prediction accuracy.

Keywords: Load forecasting, variational mode decomposition, improved sparrow search algorithm, least square support vector machine.

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Authors: Manish Pal, Rumi Sutradhar

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Pavement surface unevenness plays a pivotal role on roughness index of road which affects on riding comfort ability. Comfort ability refers to the degree of protection offered to vehicle occupants from uneven elements in the road surface. So, it is preferable to have a lower roughness index value for a better riding quality of road users. Roughness is generally defined as an expression of irregularities in the pavement surface which can be measured using different equipments like MERLIN, Bump integrator, Profilometer etc. Among them Bump Integrator is quite simple and less time consuming in case of long road sections. A case study is conducted on low volume roads in West District in Tripura to determine roughness index (RI) using Bump Integrator at the standard speed of 32 km/h. But it becomes too tough to maintain the requisite standard speed throughout the road section. The speed of Bump Integrator (BI) has to lower or higher in some distinctive situations. So, it becomes necessary to convert these roughness index values of other speeds to the standard speed of 32 km/h. This paper highlights on that roughness index conversional model. Using SPSS (Statistical Package of Social Sciences) software a generalized equation is derived among the RI value at standard speed of 32 km/h and RI value at other speed conditions.

Keywords: Bump Integrator, Pavement Distresses, Roughness Index, SPSS.

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Authors: Ratchasak Suvannatsiri

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The objectives of the research are to find the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil and to predict the impact on community members who live nearby the excavation pits in the area of Amphur Pak Thor, Ratchaburi Province in the western area of Thailand. The research was conducted by collecting soil samples from four excavation pits for basic engineering properties, testing and collecting questionnaire data from 120 community members who live nearby the excavation pits, and applying statistical analysis. The results found that the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil can be classified into silt soil type which is cohesionless as the loess or collapsible soil which is not suitable to be used for a pavement structure for commuting highway because it could lead to structural and functional failure in the long run. In terms of opinion from community members toward the impact, the highest impact was on the dust from excavation activities. The prediction from the logistic regression in terms of impact on community members was at 84.32 which can be adapted and applied onto other areas with the same context as a guideline for risk prevention and risk communication since it could impact the infrastructures and also impact the health of community members.

Keywords: Lateritic soil, excavation pits, engineering properties, impact on community members

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Authors: P. Weerachanchai, C. Tangsathitkulchai, M. Tangsathitkulchai

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Attempt was made to improve certain characteristics of bio-oil derived from palm kernel pyrolysis by blending it with diesel fuel and alcohols. Two types of alcohol, ethanol or butanol, was used as cosolvent to stabilize the phase of ternary systems. Phase behaviors and basic fuel properties of palm kernel bio-oildiesel- alcohol systems were investigated in this study. Alcohol types showed a significant influence on the phase characteristics with palm kernel bio-oil-diesel-butanol system giving larger soluble area than that of palm kernel bio-oil-diesel-ethanol system. For fuel properties, blended fuels showed superior properties including lower values of density (~860 kg/m3 at 25°C), viscosity (~4.12 mm2/s at 40°C), carbon residue (1.02-2.53 wt%), ash (0.018-0.034 wt%) and pour point (<-25 to -7 °C), increased pH (~ 6.4) and giving reasonable heating values of 32.5-41.2 MJ/kg. To enable the prediction of some properties of fuel mixtures, the measured fuel properties including heating value, density, ash content and pH were fitted by Kay-s mixing rule, whereas the viscosities of blended fuels at different temperatures were correlated by the modified Grunberg-Nissan equation and Andrade equation.

Keywords: Bio-oil, fuel blend, fuel properties, phase behaviour.

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Authors: L. K. Singh, Riktesh Srivastava

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How to effectively allocate system resource to process the Client request by Gateway servers is a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose an improved scheme for autonomous performance of Gateway servers under highly dynamic traffic loads. We devise a methodology to calculate Queue Length and Waiting Time utilizing Gateway Server information to reduce response time variance in presence of bursty traffic. The most widespread contemplation is performance, because Gateway Servers must offer cost-effective and high-availability services in the elongated period, thus they have to be scaled to meet the expected load. Performance measurements can be the base for performance modeling and prediction. With the help of performance models, the performance metrics (like buffer estimation, waiting time) can be determined at the development process. This paper describes the possible queue models those can be applied in the estimation of queue length to estimate the final value of the memory size. Both simulation and experimental studies using synthesized workloads and analysis of real-world Gateway Servers demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system.

Keywords: M/M/1, M/G/1, G/M/1, G/G/1, Gateway Servers, Buffer Estimation, Waiting Time, Queuing Process.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh river, log pearson type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares.

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Authors: K. Jahani, J. Razavi

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Nowadays, to decrease the number of downtimes in the industries such as metal mining, petroleum and chemical industries, predictive maintenance is crucial. In order to have efficient predictive maintenance, knowing the performance of critical equipment of production line such as pumps and hydro-cyclones under variable operating parameters, selecting best indicators of this equipment health situations, best locations for instrumentation, and also measuring of these indicators are very important. In this paper, computer aided engineering (CAE) tools are implemented to study some important elements of copper process line, namely slurry pumps and cyclone to predict the performance of these components under different working conditions. These modeling and simulations can be used in predicting, for example, the damage tolerance of the main shaft of the slurry pump or wear rate and location of cyclone wall or pump case and impeller. Also, the simulations can suggest best-measuring parameters, measuring intervals, and their locations.

Keywords: Computer aided engineering, predictive maintenance, fault detection, mining process line, slurry pump, hydrocyclone.

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Authors: Mostafa Jafarian Abyaneh, Khashayar Jafari, Vahab Toufigh

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The cost of experiments on different types of concrete has raised the demand for prediction of their behavior with numerical analysis. In this research, an advanced numerical model has been presented to predict the complete elastic-plastic behavior of polymer concrete (PC), high-strength concrete (HSC), high performance concrete (HPC) along with different steel fiber contents under uniaxial compression. The accuracy of the numerical response was satisfactory as compared to other conventional simple models such as Mohr-Coulomb and Drucker-Prager. In order to predict the complete elastic-plastic behavior of specimens including softening behavior, disturbed state concept (DSC) was implemented by nonlinear finite element analysis (NFEA) and hierarchical single surface (HISS) failure criterion, which is a failure surface without any singularity.

Keywords: Disturbed state concept, hierarchical single surface, failure criterion, high performance concrete, high-strength concrete, nonlinear finite element analysis, polymer concrete, steel fibers, uniaxial compression test.

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Authors: Yao-Tien Wang, Hsiang-Fu Yu, Dung Chen Chiou

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In wireless and mobile communications, this progress provides opportunities for introducing new standards and improving existing services. Supporting multimedia traffic with wireless networks quality of service (QoS). In this paper, a grey-fuzzy controller for radio resource management (GF-RRM) is presented to maximize the number of the served calls and QoS provision in wireless networks. In a wireless network, the call arrival rate, the call duration and the communication overhead between the base stations and the control center are vague and uncertain. In this paper, we develop a method to predict the cell load and to solve the RRM problem based on the GF-RRM, and support the present facility has been built on the application-level of the wireless networks. The GF-RRM exhibits the better adaptability, fault-tolerant capability and performance than other algorithms. Through simulations, we evaluate the blocking rate, update overhead, and channel acquisition delay time of the proposed method. The results demonstrate our algorithm has the lower blocking rate, less updated overhead, and shorter channel acquisition delay.

Keywords: radio resource management, grey prediction, fuzzylogic control, wireless networks, quality of service.

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Authors: Lei Zhang, Wen-jun Ruan, Hao Wang, Peng-xin Wang

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The source of the jet noise is generated by rocket exhaust plume during rocket engine testing. A domain decomposition approach is applied to the jet noise prediction in this paper. The aerodynamic noise coupling is based on the splitting into acoustic sources generation and sound propagation in separate physical domains. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is used to simulate the supersonic jet flow. Based on the simulation results of the flow-fields, the jet noise distribution of the sound pressure level is obtained by applying the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) acoustics equation and Fourier transform. The calculation results show that the complex structures of expansion waves, compression waves and the turbulent boundary layer could occur due to the strong interaction between the gas jet and the ambient air. In addition, the jet core region, the shock cell and the sound pressure level of the gas jet increase with the nozzle size increasing. Importantly, the numerical simulation results of the far-field sound are in good agreement with the experimental measurements in directivity.

Keywords: Supersonic gas jet, Large Eddy Simulation(LES), acoustic noise, Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) equations, nozzle size.

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Authors: Reena Murali, David Peter S.

Abstract:

The small interfering RNA (siRNA) alters the regulatory role of mRNA during gene expression by translational inhibition. Recent studies show that upregulation of mRNA because serious diseases like cancer. So designing effective siRNA with good knockdown effects plays an important role in gene silencing. Various siRNA design tools had been developed earlier. In this work, we are trying to analyze the existing good scoring second generation siRNA predicting tools and to optimize the efficiency of siRNA prediction by designing a computational model using Artificial Neural Network and whole stacking energy (%G), which may help in gene silencing and drug design in cancer therapy. Our model is trained and tested against a large data set of siRNA sequences. Validation of our results is done by finding correlation coefficient of experimental versus observed inhibition efficacy of siRNA. We achieved a correlation coefficient of 0.727 in our previous computational model and we could improve the correlation coefficient up to 0.753 when the threshold of whole tacking energy is greater than or equal to -32.5 kcal/mol.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Double Stranded RNA, RNA Interference, Short Interfering RNA.

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Authors: K.Ting, K. T. Chen, Y. L. Su, C. J. Chang

Abstract:

In medical therapy, laser has been widely used to conduct cosmetic, tumor and other treatments. During the process of laser irradiation, there may be thermal damage caused by excessive laser exposure. Thus, the establishment of a complete thermal analysis model is clinically helpful to physicians in reference data. In this study, porcine liver in place of tissue was subjected to laser irradiation to set up the experimental data considering the explored impact on surface thermal field and thermal damage region under different conditions of power, laser irradiation time, and distance between laser and porcine liver. In the experimental process, the surface temperature distribution of the porcine lever was measured by the infrared thermal imager. In the part of simulation, the bio heat transfer Pennes-s equation was solved by software SYSWELD applying in welding process. The double ellipsoid function as a laser source term is firstly considered in the prediction for surface thermal field and internal tissue damage. The simulation results are compared with the experimental data to validate the mathematical model established here in.

Keywords: laser infrared thermal imager, bio-heat transfer, double ellipsoid function.

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Authors: Jia-Jang Wu

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This paper presents the scaling laws that provide the criteria of geometry and dynamic similitude between the full-size rotor-shaft system and its scale model, and can be used to predict the torsional vibration characteristics of the full-size rotor-shaft system by manipulating the corresponding data of its scale model. The scaling factors, which play fundamental roles in predicting the geometry and dynamic relationships between the full-size rotor-shaft system and its scale model, for torsional free vibration problems between scale and full-size rotor-shaft systems are firstly obtained from the equation of motion of torsional free vibration. Then, the scaling factor of external force (i.e., torque) required for the torsional forced vibration problems is determined based on the Newton’s second law. Numerical results show that the torsional free and forced vibration characteristics of a full-size rotor-shaft system can be accurately predicted from those of its scale models by using the foregoing scaling factors. For this reason, it is believed that the presented approach will be significant for investigating the relevant phenomenon in the scale model tests.

Keywords: Torsional vibration, full-size model, scale model, scaling laws.

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Authors: Jui P. Hung, Yuan L. Lai, Hui T. You

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Chatter vibration has been a troublesome problem for a machine tool toward the high precision and high speed machining. Essentially, the machining performance is determined by the dynamic characteristics of the machine tool structure and dynamics of cutting process, which can further be identified in terms of the stability lobe diagram. Therefore, realization on the machine tool dynamic behavior can help to enhance the cutting stability. To assess the dynamic characteristics and machining stability of a vertical milling system under the influence of a linear guide, this study developed a finite element model integrated the modeling of linear components with the implementation of contact stiffness at the rolling interface. Both the finite element simulations and experimental measurements reveal that the linear guide with different preload greatly affects the vibration behavior and milling stability of the vertical column spindle head system, which also clearly indicate that the predictions of the machining stability agree well with the cutting tests. It is believed that the proposed model can be successfully applied to evaluate the dynamics performance of machine tool systems of various configurations.

Keywords: Machining stability, Vertical milling machine, Linearguide, Contact stiffness.

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Authors: Ljubomir Nikolic, Larisa Trichtchenko

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The connection between solar activity and adverse phenomena in the Earth’s environment that can affect space and ground based technologies has spurred interest in Space Weather (SW) research. A great effort has been put on the development of suitable models that can provide advanced forecast of SW events. With the progress in computational technology, it is becoming possible to develop operational large scale physics based models which can incorporate the most important physical processes and domains of the Sun-Earth system. In order to enhance our SW prediction capabilities we are developing advanced numerical tools. With operational requirements in mind, our goal is to develop a modular simulation framework of propagation of the disturbances from the Sun through interplanetary space to the Earth. Here, we report and discuss on the development of coronal field and solar wind components for a large scale MHD code. The model for these components is based on a potential field source surface model and an empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge solar wind relation. 

Keywords: Space weather, numerical modeling, coronal field, solar wind.

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Authors: Azlina Binti Abu Bakar, Fahmi Zaidi Bin Abdul Razak, Wan Salihin Wong Abdullah

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Psychographic is a psychological study of values, attitudes, interests and it is used mostly in prediction, opinion research and social research. This study predicts the influence of performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence and facilitating condition on e-government acceptance among Malaysian citizens. The survey responses of 543 e-government users have been validated and analyzed by means of covariance-based Structural Equation Modeling. The findings indicate that e-government acceptance among Malaysian citizens are mainly influenced by performance expectancy (β = 0.66, t = 11.53, p < 0.01) and social influence (β = 0.20, t = 4.23, p < 0.01). Surprisingly, there is no significant effect of facilitating condition and effort expectancy on e-government continuance intention (β = 0.01, t = 0.27, p > 0.05; β = -0.01, t = -0.40, p > 0.05). This study offers government and vendors a frame of reference to analyze citizen’s situation before initiating new innovations. In case of Malaysian e-government technology, adoption strategies should be built around fostering level of citizens’ technological expectation and social influence on e-government usage.

Keywords: Continuance intention, Malaysian citizens, media psychology, structural equation modeling.

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Authors: Myint Myint Yi, Khin Sandar Linn, Marlar Kyaw

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This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast (STLF) in the electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB. The load data are treated as time series data. They are decomposed into several wavelet coefficient series using the wavelet transform technique known as Non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT). The reason for using this technique is the belief in the possibility of extracting hidden patterns from the time series data. The wavelet coefficient series are used to train the neural networks (NNs) and used as the inputs to the NNs for electricity load prediction. The Scale Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm is used as the learning algorithm for the NNs. To get the final forecast data, the outputs from the NNs are recombined using the same wavelet technique. The model was evaluated with the electricity load data of Electronic Engineering Department in Mandalay Technological University in Myanmar. The simulation results showed that the model was capable of producing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in STLF.

Keywords: Neural network, Load forecast, Time series, wavelettransform.

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Authors: Sina Fadaie, Seyed Abolhassan Naeini

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Coastal embankments play an important role in coastal structures by reducing the effect of the wave forces and controlling the movement of sediments. Many coastal areas are underlain by weak and compressible soils. Estimation of during construction settlement of coastal embankments is highly important in design and safety control of embankments and appurtenant structures. Accordingly, selecting and establishing of an appropriate model with a reasonable level of complication is one of the challenges for engineers. Although there are advanced models in the literature regarding design of embankments, there is not enough information on the prediction of their associated settlement, particularly in coastal areas having considerable soft soils. Marine engineering study in Iran is important due to the existence of two important coastal areas located in the northern and southern parts of the country. In the present study, the validity of Terzaghi’s consolidation theory has been investigated. In addition, the settlement of these coastal embankments during construction is predicted by using special methods in PLAXIS software by the help of appropriate boundary conditions and soil layers. The results indicate that, for the existing soil condition at the site, some parameters are important to be considered in analysis. Consequently, a model is introduced to estimate the settlement of the embankments in such geotechnical conditions.

Keywords: Consolidation, coastal embankments, settlement, numerical methods, finite elements method.

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Authors: A. Kablan

Abstract:

The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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Authors: Fares Laouacheria, Said Kechida, Moncef Chabi

Abstract:

The objective of the study was based on the hydrological routing modelling for the continuous monitoring of the hydrological situation in the Moudjar river catchment, especially during floods with Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-HMS). The HEC-GeoHMS was used to transform data from geographic information system (GIS) to HEC-HMS for delineating and modelling the catchment river in order to estimate the runoff volume, which is used as inputs to the hydrological routing model. Two hydrological routing models were used, namely Muskingum and Muskingum routing models, for conducting this study. In this study, a comparison between the parameters of the Muskingum and Muskingum-Cunge routing models in HEC-HMS was used for modelling flood routing in the Moudjar river catchment and determining the relationship between these parameters and the physical characteristics of the river. The results indicate that the effects of input parameters such as the weighting factor "X" and travel time "K" on the output results are more significant, where the Muskingum routing model was more sensitive to input parameters than the Muskingum-Cunge routing model. This study can contribute to understand and improve the knowledge of the mechanisms of river floods, especially in ungauged river catchments.

Keywords: HEC-HMS, hydrological modelling, Muskingum routing model, Muskingum-Cunge routing model.

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Authors: Suresh Shirgave, Prakash Kulkarni, José Borges

Abstract:

The continuous growth in the size of the World Wide Web has resulted in intricate Web sites, demanding enhanced user skills and more sophisticated tools to help the Web user to find the desired information. In order to make Web more user friendly, it is necessary to provide personalized services and recommendations to the Web user. For discovering interesting and frequent navigation patterns from Web server logs many Web usage mining techniques have been applied. The recommendation accuracy of usage based techniques can be improved by integrating Web site content and site structure in the personalization process.

Herein, we propose semantically enriched Web Usage Mining method for Personalization (SWUMP), an extension to solely usage based technique. This approach is a combination of the fields of Web Usage Mining and Semantic Web. In the proposed method, we envisage enriching the undirected graph derived from usage data with rich semantic information extracted from the Web pages and the Web site structure. The experimental results show that the SWUMP generates accurate recommendations and is able to achieve 10-20% better accuracy than the solely usage based model. The SWUMP addresses the new item problem inherent to solely usage based techniques.

Keywords: Prediction, Recommendation, Semantic Web Usage Mining, Web Usage Mining.

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