Search results for: output response

Authors: H.Mohammadi Majd, M.Jalali Azizpour

Abstract:

In this paper back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN )with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm is employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. The input data for the artificial neural network are a set of parameters generated randomly (aspect ratio d/h, material properties, temperature and coefficient of friction). The output data are the coefficient of polynomial that fitted on barreling curves. Neural network was trained using barreling curves generated by finite element simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process

Keywords: Back-propagation artificial neural network(BPANN), prediction, upsetting

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Authors: Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has significantly improved the real GDP and reduced the government fiscal deficit. On the other hand, the removal of the fuel subsidy has increased most of the local commodity prices, especially energy commodities. The findings of the study could provide some imperative inputs for policy makers, especially to identify the right policy mechanism. This is especially ensures the subsidy savings from subsidy removal could be transferred back into the domestic economy in the form of infrastructure development, compensation and increases in others sector output contributions towards a sustainable economic growth.

Keywords: CGE, deficit, energy, reform, subsidy.

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Authors: Chiang-Ho Cheng, An-Shik Yang, Chih-Jer Lin, Chun-Ying Lee

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This paper aims to present the design, fabrication and test of a novel piezoelectric actuated, check-valves embedded micropump having the advantages of miniature size, light weight and low power consumption. This device is designed to pump gases and liquids with the capability of performing the self-priming and bubble-tolerant work mode by maximizing the stroke volume of the membrane as well as the compression ratio via minimization of the dead volume of the micropump chamber and channel. By experiment apparatus setup, we can get the real-time values of the flow rate of micropump, the displacement of the piezoelectric actuator and the deformation of the check valve, simultaneously. The micropump with check valve 0.4 mm in thickness obtained higher output performance under the sinusoidal waveform of 120 V_pp. The micropump achieved the maximum pumping rates of 42.2 ml/min and back pressure of 14.0 kPa at the corresponding frequency of 28 and 20 Hz. The presented micropump is able to pump gases with a pumping rate of 196 ml/min at operating frequencies of 280 Hz under the sinusoidal waveform of 120 V_pp.

Keywords: Actuator, Check-valve, Micropump, Piezoelectric.

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Authors: M. Mohamed, X. Zhang, K. Wu, M. Elfituri, A. Legnain

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Performance of millimeter-wave (mm-wave) multiband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MB-OFDM) ultrawideband (UWB) signal generation using frequency quadrupling technique and transmission over fiber is experimentally investigated. The frequency quadrupling is achived by using only one Mach- Zehnder modulator (MZM) that is biased at maximum transmission (MATB) point. At the output, a frequency quadrupling signal is obtained then sent to a second MZM. This MZM is used for MBOFDM UWB signal modulation. In this work, we demonstrate 30- GHz mm-wave wireless that carries three-bands OFDM UWB signals, and error vector magnitude (EVM) is used to analyze the transmission quality. It is found that our proposed technique leads to an improvement of 3.5 dB in EVM at 40% of local oscillator (LO) modulation with comparison to the technique using two cascaded MZMs biased at minimum transmission (MITB) point.

Keywords: Optical communication, Frequency up-conversion, Mach-Zehnder modulator, millimeter wave generation, radio over fiber

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Authors: Low Khong Teck, Hasan S. M. Al-Khaffaf, Abdullah Zawawi Talib, Tan Kian Lam

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In this paper, an extended study is performed on the effect of different factors on the quality of vector data based on a previous study. In the noise factor, one kind of noise that appears in document images namely Gaussian noise is studied while the previous study involved only salt-and-pepper noise. High and low levels of noise are studied. For the noise cleaning methods, algorithms that were not covered in the previous study are used namely Median filters and its variants. For the vectorization factor, one of the best available commercial raster to vector software namely VPstudio is used to convert raster images into vector format. The performance of line detection will be judged based on objective performance evaluation method. The output of the performance evaluation is then analyzed statistically to highlight the factors that affect vector quality.

Keywords: Performance Evaluation, Vectorization, Median Filter, Gaussian Noise.

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Authors: T. Sanches, K. Bousson

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As part of the development of a 4D autopilot system for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), i.e. a time-dependent robust trajectory generation and control algorithm, this work addresses the problem of optimal path control based on the flight sensors data output that may be unreliable due to noise on data acquisition and/or transmission under certain circumstances. Although several filtering methods, such as the Kalman-Bucy filter or the Linear Quadratic Gaussian/Loop Transfer Recover Control (LQG/LTR), are available, the utter complexity of the control system, together with the robustness and reliability required of such a system on a UAV for airworthiness certifiable autonomous flight, required the development of a proper robust filter for a nonlinear system, as a way of further mitigate errors propagation to the control system and improve its ,performance. As such, a nonlinear algorithm based upon the LQG/LTR, is validated through computational simulation testing, is proposed on this paper.

Keywords: Autonomous flight, LQG/LTR, nonlinear state estimator, robust flight control and stability.

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Authors: Ashish Thakur, Radhey Shyam Anand

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This paper presents the region based segmentation method for ultrasound images using local statistics. In this segmentation approach the homogeneous regions depends on the image granularity features, where the interested structures with dimensions comparable to the speckle size are to be extracted. This method uses a look up table comprising of the local statistics of every pixel, which are consisting of the homogeneity and similarity bounds according to the kernel size. The shape and size of the growing regions depend on this look up table entries. The algorithms are implemented by using connected seeded region growing procedure where each pixel is taken as seed point. The region merging after the region growing also suppresses the high frequency artifacts. The updated merged regions produce the output in formed of segmented image. This algorithm produces the results that are less sensitive to the pixel location and it also allows a segmentation of the accurate homogeneous regions.

Keywords: Local statistics, region growing, segmentation, ultrasound images.

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Authors: Sulata Maharana, B Biswas, Adity Ganguly, Ashok Kumar

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In this paper, the requirement for Coke quality prediction, its role in Blast furnaces, and the model output is explained. By applying method of Artificial Neural Networking (ANN) using back propagation (BP) algorithm, prediction model has been developed to predict CSR. Important blast furnace functions such as permeability, heat exchanging, melting, and reducing capacity are mostly connected to coke quality. Coke quality is further dependent upon coal characterization and coke making process parameters. The ANN model developed is a useful tool for process experts to adjust the control parameters in case of coke quality deviations. The model also makes it possible to predict CSR for new coal blends which are yet to be used in Coke Plant. Input data to the model was structured into 3 modules, for tenure of past 2 years and the incremental models thus developed assists in identifying the group causing the deviation of CSR.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, backpropagation, CokeStrength after Reaction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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Authors: Guangpu Chen

Abstract:

When the failure function is monotone, some monotonic reliability methods are used to gratefully simplify and facilitate the reliability computations. However, these methods often work in a transformed iso-probabilistic space. To this end, a monotonic simulator or transformation is needed in order that the transformed failure function is still monotone. This note proves at first that the output distribution of failure function is invariant under the transformation. And then it presents some conditions under which the transformed function is still monotone in the newly obtained space. These concern the copulas and the dependence concepts. In many engineering applications, the Gaussian copulas are often used to approximate the real word copulas while the available information on the random variables is limited to the set of marginal distributions and the covariances. So this note catches an importance on the conditional monotonicity of the often used transformation from an independent random vector into a dependent random vector with Gaussian copulas.

Keywords: Monotonic, Rosenblatt, Nataf transformation, dependence concepts, completely positive matrices, Gaussiancopulas

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Authors: Leo Laine, Morgan Johansson

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To meet the civilizations future needs for safe living and low environmental footprint, the engineers designing the complex systems of tomorrow will need efficient ways to model and optimize these systems for their intended purpose. For example, a civil defence shelter and its subsystem components needs to withstand, e.g. airblast and ground shock from decided design level explosion which detonates with a certain distance from the structure. In addition, the complex civil defence shelter needs to have functioning air filter systems to protect from toxic gases and provide clean air, clean water, heat, and electricity needs to also be available through shock and vibration safe fixtures and connections. Similar complex building systems can be found in any concentrated living or office area. In this paper, the authors use a multidomain modelling language called Modelica to model a concrete wall as a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system with elastoplastic properties with the implemented option of plastic hardening. The elastoplastic model was developed and implemented in the open source tool OpenModelica. The simulation model was tested on the case with a transient equivalent reflected pressure time history representing an airblast from 100 kg TNT detonating 15 meters from the wall. The concrete wall is approximately regarded as a concrete strip of 1.0 m width. This load represents a realistic threat on any building in a city like area. The OpenModelica model results were compared with an Excel implementation of a SDOF model with an elastic-plastic spring using simple fixed timestep central difference solver. The structural displacement results agreed very well with each other when it comes to plastic displacement magnitude, elastic oscillation displacement, and response times.

Keywords: Airblast from explosives, elastoplastic spring model, Modelica modelling language, SDOF, structural response of concrete structure.

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Authors: Hironori Kakuta, Kajiro Watanabe, Yosuke Kurihara

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Water leakage is a serious problem in the maintenance of a waterworks facility. Monitoring the water flow rate is one way to locate leakage. However, conventional flowmeters such as the wet-type flowmeter and the clamp-on type ultrasonic flowmeter require additional construction for their installation and are therefore quite expensive. This paper proposes a novel estimation system for the flow rate in a water pipeline, which employs a vibration sensor. This assembly can be attached to any water pipeline without the need for additional high-cost construction. The vibration sensor is designed based on a condenser microphone. This sensor detects vibration caused by water flowing through a pipeline. It is possible to estimate the water flow rate by measuring the amplitude of the output signal from the vibration sensor. We confirmed the validity of the proposed sensing system experimentally.

Keywords: Condenser microphone, Flow rate estimation, Piping vibration, Water pipe.

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Authors: James Dunia, Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

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Photovoltaic (PV) energy is one of the most important energy resources since it is clean, pollution free, and endless. Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) is used in photovoltaic (PV) systems to maximize the photovoltaic output power, irrespective the variations of temperature and radiation conditions. This paper presents a comparison between Ćuk and SEPIC converter in maximum power point tracking (MPPT) of photovoltaic (PV) system. In the paper, advantages and disadvantages of both converters are described. Incremental conductance control method has been used as maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithm. The two converters and MPPT algorithm were modelled using MATLAB/Simulink software for simulation. Simulation results show that both Ćuk and SEPIC converters can track the maximum power point with some minor variations. 

Keywords: Ćuk Converter, Incremental Conductance, Maximum Power Point Tracking, PV Module, SEPIC Converter.

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Authors: Nina Danišová, Roman Ružarovský, Karol Velíšek

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In this paper is described a new conception of the Cartesian robot for automated assembly and also disassembly process. The advantage of this conception is the utilization the Cartesian assembly robot with its all peripheral automated devices for assembly of the assembled product. The assembly product in the end of the lifecycle can be disassembled with the same Cartesian disassembly robot with the use of the same peripheral automated devices and equipment. It is a new approach to problematic solving and development of the automated assembly systems with respect to lifecycle management of the assembly product and also assembly system with Cartesian robot. It is also important to develop the methodical process for design of automated assembly and disassembly system with Cartesian robot. Assembly and disassembly system use the same Cartesian robot input and output devices, assembly and disassembly units in one workplace with different application. Result of design methodology is the verification and proposition of real automated assembly and disassembly workplace with Cartesian robot for known verified model of assembled actuator.

Keywords: Cartesian robot, design methodology, assembly, disassembly, pneumatic

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Authors: Radhika Ambatipudi, Hari Babu Kotte, Dr. Kent Bertilsson

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In this paper, multilayered coreless printed circuit board (PCB) step-down power transformers for DC-DC converter applications have been designed, manufactured and evaluated. A set of two different circular spiral step-down transformers were fabricated in the four layered PCB. These transformers have been modelled with the assistance of high frequency equivalent circuit and characterized with both sinusoidal and square wave excitation. This paper provides the comparative results of these two different transformers in terms of their resistances, self, leakage, mutual inductances, coupling coefficient and also their energy efficiencies. The operating regions for optimal performance of these transformers for power transfer applications are determined. These transformers were tested for the output power levels of about 30 Watts within the input voltage range of 12-50 Vrms. The energy efficiency for these step down transformers is observed to be in the range of 90%-97% in MHz frequency region.

Keywords: Coreless Step down Transformer, DC-DC Converterapplications, High frequency transformer, MHz operating frequency, Multilayered PCB transformers, Power Transfer Applications.

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Authors: Yeon-kug Moon, Kang-Yoon Lee, Yun-Jae Won, Seung-Ok Lim

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This paper describes a low-voltage and low-power channel selection analog front end with continuous-time low pass filters and highly linear programmable gain amplifier (PGA). The filters were realized as balanced Gm-C biquadratic filters to achieve a low current consumption. High linearity and a constant wide bandwidth are achieved by using a new transconductance (Gm) cell. The PGA has a voltage gain varying from 0 to 65dB, while maintaining a constant bandwidth. A filter tuning circuit that requires an accurate time base but no external components is presented. With a 1-Vrms differential input and output, the filter achieves -85dB THD and a 78dB signal-to-noise ratio. Both the filter and PGA were implemented in a 0.18um 1P6M n-well CMOS process. They consume 3.2mW from a 1.8V power supply and occupy an area of 0.19mm2.

Keywords: component ; Channel selection filters, DC offset, programmable gain amplifier, tuning circuit

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Authors: S. Pullteap

Abstract:

In this paper, a fiber based Fabry-Perot interferometer is proposed and demonstrated for a non-contact displacement measurement. A piece of micro-prism which attached to the mechanical vibrator is served as the target reflector. Interference signal is generated from the superposition between the sensing beam and the reference beam within the sensing arm of the fiber sensor. This signal is then converted to the displacement value by using a developed program written in visual Cµ programming with a resolution of λ/8. A classical function generator is operated for controlling the vibrator. By fixing an excitation frequency of 100 Hz and varying the excitation amplitude range of 0.1 – 3 Volts, the output displacements measured by the fiber sensor are obtained from 1.55 μm to 30.225 μm. A reference displacement sensor with a sensitivity of ~0.4 μm is also employed for comparing the displacement errors between both sensors. We found that over the entire displacement range, a maximum and average measurement error are obtained of 0.977% and 0.44% respectively.

Keywords: Non-contact displacement measurement, extrinsicfiber based Fabry-Perot interferometer, interference signal, zerocrossingfringe counting technique.

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Authors: M. P. Nanda Kumar, K. Dheeraj

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The design of a feedback controller, so as to minimize a given performance criterion, for a general non-linear dynamical system is difficult; if not impossible. But for a large class of non-linear dynamical systems, the open loop control that minimizes a performance criterion can be obtained using calculus of variations and Pontryagin’s minimum principle. In this paper, the open loop optimal trajectories, that minimizes a given performance measure, is used to train the neural network whose inputs are state variables of non-linear dynamical systems and the open loop optimal control as the desired output. This trained neural network is used as the feedback controller. In other words, attempts are made here to solve the “inverse optimal control problem” by using the state and control trajectories that are optimal in an open loop sense.

Keywords: Inverse Optimal Control, Radial basis function neural network, Controller Design.

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Authors: P. Pistelok

Abstract:

The article presents the concept of an electromagnetic circuit generator with permanent magnets mounted on the surface rotor core designed for single phase work. Computation field-circuit model was shown. The spectrum of time course of voltages in the idle work was presented. The cross section with graphically presentation of magnetic induction in particular parts of electromagnetic circuits was presented. Distribution of magnetic induction at the rated load point for each phase was shown. The time course of voltages and currents for each phases for rated power were displayed. An analysis of laboratory results and measurement of load characteristics of the generator was discussed. The work deals with three electromagnetic circuits of generators with permanent magnet where output voltage characteristics versus rated power were expressed.

Keywords: Permanent magnet generator, permanent magnets, vibration, course of torque, single phase work, asymmetrical three phase work.

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Authors: Tetsuki Taniguchi, Yoshio Karasawa

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This paper describes a node pair selection scheme in relay-aided multiple source multiple destination communication system based on stable marriage problem. A general case is assumed in which all of source, relay and destination nodes are equipped with multiantenna and carry out multistream transmission. Based on several metrics introduced from inter-node channel condition, the preference order is determined about all source-relay and relay-destination relations, and then the node pairs are determined using Gale-Shapley algorithm. The computer simulations show that the effectiveness of node pair selection is larger in multihop communication. Some additional aspects which are different from relay-less case are also investigated.

Keywords: Relay, multiple input multiple output (MIMO), multiuser, amplify and forward, stable marriage problem, Gale-Shapley algorithm.

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Authors: Xiaoquan Ding, Jianmin Hao, Changwen Liu

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to a delayed periodic predatorprey system with non-monotonic numerical response on time scales. With the help of a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory, we establish easily verifiable criteria for the existence of multiple periodic solutions. As corollaries, some applications are listed. In particular, our results improve and generalize some known ones.

Keywords: Predator-prey system, periodic solution, time scale, delay, coincidence degree.

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Authors: K. Diwakar, K. Aanandha Saravanan, C. Senthilpari

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Higher order ΔΣ Modulator (DSM) is basically an unstable system. The approximate conditions for stability cannot be used for the design of a DSM for industrial applications where risk is involved. The existing second order, single stage, single bit, unity feedback gain , discrete DSM cannot be used for the normalized full range (-1 to +1) of an input signal since the DSM becomes unstable when the input signal is above ±0.55. The stability is also not guaranteed for input signals of amplitude less than ±0.55. In the present paper, the above mentioned second order DSM is modified with input signal dependent forward path gain. The proposed DSM is suitable for industrial applications where one needs the digital representation of the analog input signal, during each sampling period. The proposed DSM can operate almost for the full range of input signals (-0.95 to +0.95) without causing instability, assuming that the second integrator output should not exceed the circuit supply voltage, ±15 Volts.

Keywords: DSM, stability, SNR, state variables.

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Authors: A. Peniak, J. Makarovič, P. Rafajdus, P. Dúbravka

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The purpose of this work is to optimize a Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) for an automotive application, specifically for a fully electric car. A new optimization approach is proposed. This unique approach transforms automotive customer requirements into an optimization problem, based on sound knowledge of a SRM theory. The approach combines an analytical and a finite element analysis of the motor to quantify static nonlinear and dynamic performance parameters, as phase currents and motor torque maps, an output power and power losses in order to find the optimal motor as close to the reality as possible, within reasonable time. The new approach yields the optimal motor which is competitive with other types of already proposed motors for automotive applications. This distinctive approach can also be used to optimize other types of electrical motors, when parts specifically related to the SRM are adjusted accordingly.

Keywords: Automotive, drive system, electric car, finite element method, hybrid car, optimization, switched reluctance motor.

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Authors: B. Nasri, M. Bensaada

Abstract:

We present a simulation and realization of a battery charge regulator (BCR) in microsatellite earth observation. The tests were performed on battery pack 12volt, capacity 24Ah and the solar array open circuit voltage of 100 volt and optimum power of about 250 watt. The battery charge is made by solar module. The principle is to adapt the output voltage of the solar module to the battery by using the technique of pulse width modulation (PWM). Among the different techniques of charge battery, we opted for the technique of the controller ON/OFF is a standard technique and simple, it-s easy to be board executed validation will be made by simulation "Proteus Isis Professional software ". The circuit and the program of this prototype are based on the PIC16F877 microcontroller, a serial interface connecting a PC is also realized, to view and save data and graphics in real time, for visualization of data and graphs we develop an interface tool “visual basic.net (VB)--.

Keywords: Battery Charge Regulator, Batteries, Buck converter, Power System, Power Conditioning, Power Distribution, Solar arrays.

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Authors: Naveen Beri, S. Maheshwari, C. Sharma, Anil Kumar

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In this paper an attempt has been made to correlate the usefulness of electrodes made through powder metallurgy (PM) in comparison with conventional copper electrode during electric discharge machining. Experimental results are presented on electric discharge machining of AISI D2 steel in kerosene with copper tungsten (30% Cu and 70% W) tool electrode made through powder metallurgy (PM) technique and Cu electrode. An L18 (21 37) orthogonal array of Taguchi methodology was used to identify the effect of process input factors (viz. current, duty cycle and flushing pressure) on the output factors {viz. material removal rate (MRR) and surface roughness (SR)}. It was found that CuW electrode (made through PM) gives high surface finish where as the Cu electrode is better for higher material removal rate.

Keywords: Electrical discharge machining (EDM), Powder Metallurgy (PM), Taguchi method, Material Removal Rate (MRR), Surface Roughness (SR).

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Authors: Changqiao Wu, Guoqing Ding, Xin Chen

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In this paper, ways of modeling dynamic measurement systems are discussed. Specially, for linear system with single-input single-output, it could be modeled with shallow neural network. Then, gradient based optimization algorithms are used for searching the proper coefficients. Besides, method with normal equation and second order gradient descent are proposed to accelerate the modeling process, and ways of better gradient estimation are discussed. It shows that the mathematical essence of the learning objective is maximum likelihood with noises under Gaussian distribution. For conventional gradient descent, the mini-batch learning and gradient with momentum contribute to faster convergence and enhance model ability. Lastly, experimental results proved the effectiveness of second order gradient descent algorithm, and indicated that optimization with normal equation was the most suitable for linear dynamic models.

Keywords: Dynamic system modeling, neural network, normal equation, second order gradient descent.

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Authors: Hung-Wei Wu, Yung-Wei Chen, Yu-Fu Chen, Cheng-Yuan Hung

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This paper presents a new ultra-wideband (UWB) bandpass filter (BPF) with sharp roll-off and dual-notched bands. The filter consists of a triangle ring multi-mode resonator (MMR) with the stub-loaded resonator (SLR) for controlling the two transmission zeros at 2.8 / 11 GHz, the embedded open-circuited stub and the asymmetric tight coupled input/output (I/O) lines for introducing the dual notched bands at 5.2 / 6.8 GHz. The attenuation slope in the lower and higher passband edges of the proposed filter show 160- and 153-dB/GHz, respectively. This study mainly provides a simple method to design a UWB bandpass filter with high passband selectivity and dual-notched bands for satisfying the Federal Communications Commission (FCC-defined) indoor UWB specification

Keywords: steeply slopes transition band, bandpass filter, ultra-wideband (UWB), triangle-ring, multi-mode resonator, stub-loaded resonator.

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Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry

Abstract:

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has many different important applications especially in pattern detection such as face detection / recognition. Therefore, for real time applications, the response time is required to be as small as possible. In this paper, new implementation of PCA for fast face detection is presented. Such new implementation is designed based on cross correlation in the frequency domain between the input image and eigenvectors (weights). Simulation results show that the proposed implementation of PCA is faster than conventional one.

Keywords: Fast Face Detection, PCA, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain

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Authors: Mohammad Syuhaimi Ab-Rahman, Boon Chuan Ng, Norshilawati Mohamad Ibrahim, Sahbudin Shaari

Abstract:

This paper describes the development of a 16-ports optical code division multiple access (OCDMA) encoder prototype based on Arrayed Waveguide Grating (AWG) and optical switches. It is potentially to provide a high security for data transmission due to all data will be transmitted in binary code form. The output signals from AWG are coded with a binary code that given to an optical switch before it signal modulate with the carrier and transmitted to the receiver. The 16-ports encoder used 16 double pole double throw (DPDT) toggle switches to control the polarization of voltage source from +5 V to -5 V for 16 optical switches. When +5 V is given, the optical switch will give code '1' and vice versa. The experimental results showed the insertion loss, crosstalk, uniformity, and optical signal-noise-ratio (OSNR) for the developed prototype are <12 dB, 9.77 dB, <1.63dB, and ≥20dB.

Keywords: AWG, encoder, OCDMA, optical switch.

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: S. Bouharati, F. Allag, M. Belmahdi, M. Bounechada

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In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.

Keywords: Climate changes, dry soil, Phytopathogenicity, Predictive model, Fuzzy logic.

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