Search results for: macro-economic stabilization.

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle, Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecasting, Neuro-Fuzzy, Smoothing transition, Time-series

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Authors: Bozena Dohnalkova, Jakub Hodul, Rostislav Drochytka, Jana Kosikova

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This paper deals with a proposal of a new methodology for durability assessment of solidification product for its safe further use. The new methodology is based on a review of the current state of assessment of treated waste in Czech Republic and abroad. The aim of the paper is to propose an optimal evaluation methodology for verifying properties of solidification product to ensure its safe further use in building industry.

Keywords: Solidification/stabilization, durability, waste.

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Authors: Zhengnan Shi

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the problem of Popular Matching of strictly ordered preference lists. A Popular Matching is not guaranteed to exist in any network. We propose an IDbased, constant space, self-stabilizing algorithm that converges to a Maximum Popular Matching an optimum solution, if one exist. We show that the algorithm stabilizes in O(n5) moves under any scheduler (daemon).

Keywords: self-stabilization, popular matching, algorithm, distributed computing, fault tolerance

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Authors: Vincent Fromentin

Abstract:

This paper examines whether or not immigration has a positive influence on the duration of unemployment, in a macroeconomic perspective. We analyse also whether the degree of labor market integration can influence migration. The integration of immigrants into the labor market is a recurrence theme in the work on the economic consequences of immigration. However, to our knowledge, no researchers have studied the impact of immigration on unemployment duration, and vice versa. With two methodology of research (panel estimations (OLS and 2SLS) and panel cointegration techniques), we show that migration seems to influence positively the short-term unemployment and negatively long-term unemployment, for 14 OECD destination countries. In addition, immigration seems to be conditioned by the structural and institutional characteristics of the labour market.

Keywords: international migration, unemployment duration, OECD countries, panel data

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Authors: Nikolaos Sariannidis, Grigoris Giannarakis, Nikolaos Litinas, Nikos Kartalis

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This study investigates the relationship between 10 year bond value, Yen/U.S dollar exchange rate, non-farm payrolls (all employs) and crude oil to U.S. Dow Jones Sustainability Index. A GARCH model is used to test these relationships for the period January 1st 1999 to January 31st 2008 using monthly data. Results show that an increase of the 10 year bond and non farm payrolls (all employs) lead to an increase of the D.J.S.I returns. On the contrary the volatility of the Yen/U.S dollar exchange rates as well as the increase of crude oil returns has negative effects on the U.S D.J.S.I returns. This study aims at assisting investors to understand the influences certain macroeconomic indicators have on the companies- stock returns as reported by the D.J.S.I.

Keywords: Bond value, Corporate Social Responsibility, Crudeoil, D.J.S.I United States, Exchange rate, GARCH, Non-farmpayrolls.

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Authors: R. Mangiaracina, A. Perego, F. Campari

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Despite the fact that B2c eCommerce has become important in numerous economies, its adoption varies from country to country. This paper aims to identify the factors affecting (enabling or inhibiting) B2c eCommerce and to determine their quantitative impact on the diffusion of online sales across countries. A dynamic panel model analyzing the relationship between 13 factors (Macroeconomic, Demographic, Socio-Cultural, Infrastructural and Offer related) stemming from a complete literature analysis and the B2c eCommerce value in 45 countries over 9 years has been developed. Having a positive correlation coefficient, GDP, mobile penetration, Internet user penetration and credit card penetration resulted as enabling drivers of the B2c eCommerce value across countries, whereas, having a negative correlation coefficient,equal distribution of income and the development of traditional retailing network act as inhibiting factors.

Keywords: B2c eCommerce diffusion, influencing factors, dynamic panel model

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Authors: Wissam B. Fahed

Abstract:

Entrepreneurship has become an important and extensively researched concept in business studies. Research on foreign direct investment (FDI) has become widespread due to the growth of FDI and its importance in globalization. Most entrepreneurship studies examined the importance and influence of entrepreneurial orientation in a micro-level context. On the other hand, studies and research concerning FDI used statistical techniques to analyze the effect, determinants, and motives of FDI on a macroeconomic level, ignoring empirical studies on other noneconomic determinants. In order to bridge the gap between the theory and empirical evidence on FDI and the theory and research on entrepreneurship, this study examines the impact of entrepreneurship on inward foreign direct investment. The relationship between entrepreneurship and foreign direct investment is investigated through regression analysis of pooled time-series and cross-sectional data. The results suggest that entrepreneurship has a significant effect on FDI.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, foreign direct investment, globalization, economic freedom.

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Authors: Sylvain Chardon, Timotéo Payre, Hugo Grardel, Yann Quentel, Mathieu Thomachot, Gérald Aigouy, Frank Claeyssen

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With the increasing digitalization of society, access to data has become vital and strategic for individuals and nations. In this context, the number of satellite constellation projects is growing drastically worldwide and is a next-generation challenge of the New Space industry. So far, existing satellite constellations have been using radio frequencies (RF) for satellite-to-ground communications, inter-satellite communications, and feeder link communication. However, RF has several limitations, such as limited bandwidth and low protection level. To address these limitations, space optical communication will be the new trend, addressing both very high-speed and secured encrypted communication. Fast Steering Mirrors (FSM) are key components used in optical communication as well as space imagery and for a large field of functions such as Point Ahead Mechanisms (PAM), Raster Scanning, Beam Steering Mirrors (BSM), Fine Pointing Mechanisms (FPM) and Line of Sight stabilization (LOS). The main challenges of space FSM development for optical communication are to propose both a technology and a supply chain relevant for high quantities New Space approach, which requires secured connectivity for high-speed internet, Earth planet observation and monitoring, and mobility applications. CTEC proposes a mini-FSM technology offering a stroke of +/-6 mrad and a resonant frequency of 1700 Hz, with a mass of 50 g. This FSM mechanism is a good candidate for giant constellations and all applications on board NanoSats and CubeSats, featuring a very high level of miniaturization and optimized for New Space high quantities cost efficiency. The use of piezo actuators offers a high resonance frequency for optimal control, with almost zero power consumption in step and stay pointing, and with very high-reliability figures > 0,995 demonstrated over years of recurrent manufacturing for Optronics applications at CTEC.

Keywords: Fast steering mirror, feeder link, line of sight stabilization, optical communication, pointing ahead mechanism, raster scan.

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Authors: Omid Pourabdollah, Mohsen Misaghian

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Overtopping is known as one the most important reasons for the failure of earth dams. In some cases, it has resulted in heavy damages and losses. Therefore, enhancing the safety of earth dams against overtopping has received much attention in the past four decades. In this paper, at first, the overtopping phenomena and its destructive consequences will be introduced. Then, overtopping failure mechanism of embankments will be described. Finally, different types of protection systems for stabilization of earth dams against overtopping will be presented. These include timber cribs, riprap and gabions, reinforced earth, roller compacted concrete, and the precast concrete blocks.

Keywords: Embankment dam, overtopping, roller compacted concrete, wedge concrete block.

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Authors: Zhengnan Shi

Abstract:

In the self-stabilizing algorithmic paradigm, each node has a local view of the system, in a finite amount of time the system converges to a global state with desired property. In a graph G = (V, E), a subset S C V is a 2-packing if Vi c V: IN[i] n SI <1. In this paper, an ID-based, constant space, self-stabilizing algorithm that stabilizes to a maximal 2-packing in an arbitrary graph is proposed. It is shown that the algorithm stabilizes in 0(n3) moves under any scheduler (daemon). Specifically, it is shown that the algorithm stabilizes in linear time-steps under a synchronous daemon where every privileged node moves at each time-step.

Keywords: self-stabilization, 2-packing, distributed computing, fault tolerance, graph algorithms

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Authors: Pavla Ruzickova, Petr Teply

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There are many debates now regarding undervalued and overvalued currencies currently traded on the world financial market. This paper contributes to these debates from a theoretical point of view. We present the three most commonly used methods of estimating the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (REER): macroeconomic balance approach, external sustainability approach and equilibrium real effective exchange rate approach in the reduced form. Moreover, we discuss key concepts of the calculation of the real exchange rate (RER) based on applied explanatory variables: nominal exchange rates, terms of trade and tradable and non-tradable goods. Last but not least, we discuss the three main driving forces behind real exchange rates movements which include terms of trade, relative productivity growth and the interest rate differential.

Keywords: real exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange, terms of trade

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Authors: S. A. Gayvoronsky, T. A. Ezangina

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The robust control system objects with interval- undermined parameters is considers in this paper. Initial information about the system is its characteristic polynomial with interval coefficients. On the basis of coefficient estimations of quality indices and criterion of the maximum stability degree, the methods of synthesis of a robust regulator parametric is developed. The example of the robust stabilization system synthesis of the rope tension is given in this article.

Keywords: An interval polynomial, controller synthesis, analysis of quality factors, maximum degree of stability, robust degree of stability, robust oscillation, system accuracy.

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Authors: Maqbool Hussain Sial, Maaida Hussain Hashmi, Sofia Anwar

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The present research was focused to investigate the role of investment in the course of economic growth with reference to Pakistan. The study analyzed the role of the public and private investment and impact of the political and macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth of Pakistan by using the vector autoregressive approach (VAR). In long-run both public and private investment showed a positive impact on economic growth but the growth was largely driven by private investment as compared to public investment. Government consumption expenditure, economic uncertainty and political instability hampered the economic growth of Pakistan. In short-run the private investment positively influences the growth but there was negative and insignificant effect of the public investment and government consumption expenditure on the growth. There was a positive relationship found between economic uncertainty (proxy for inflation) and GDP in short run.

Keywords: Investment, Government Consumption, Growth, Co-integration, Pakistan.

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Authors: Petr Teply

Abstract:

While the form of crises may change, their essence remains the same (such as a cycle of abundant liquidity, rapid credit growth, and a low-inflation environment followed by an asset-price bubble). The current market turbulence began in mid-2000s when the US economy shifted to imbalanced both internal and external macroeconomic positions. We see two key causes of these problems – loose US monetary policy in early 2000s and US government guarantees issued on the securities by government-sponsored enterprises what was further fueled by financial innovations such as structured credit products. We have discovered both negative and positive lessons deriving from this crisis and divided the negative lessons into three groups: financial products and valuation, processes and business models, and strategic issues. Moreover, we address key risk management lessons and exit strategies derived from the current crisis and recommend policies that should help diminish the negative impact of future potential crises.

Keywords: exist strategy, global crisis, risk management, corporate governance

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Authors: L. Aparecida Bastos, J. Leige Lopes, J. Crepaldi, R. Monteiro da Silva

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The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of some social and economic indicators of Mercosur´s economies from 1980 to 2012, based on the statistics of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA). The objective is to observe if after the accession of these economies to Mercosur (the first accessions occurred in 1994) these indicators showed better performance, in order to demonstrate if economic integration contributed to improved trade, macroeconomic performance, and level of social and economic development of member countries. To this end, the methodologies used will be a literature review and descriptive statistics. The theoretical framework that guides the work are the theories of Integration: Classical Liberal, Marxist and structural-proactive. The results reveal that most social and economic indicators showed better performance in those economies that joined Mercosur after 1994. This work is the result of an investigation already completed.

Keywords: Economic integration, mercosur, social indicators, economic indicators.

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Authors: M. W. Siddiqi, M. Ilyas

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Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main essential with which an economy is managed and run. While planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial estimates and targets set to be achieved. This revenue-gap distorts the whole system and the economy disturbing all the major macroeconomic indicators. This study is aimed to find out short and long term impact of revenue gap on budget deficit, debt burden and economic growth on the economy of Pakistan. For this purpose the study uses autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and error correction mechanism on three different models for the period 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that revenue gap has a short and long run relationship with economic growth and budget deficit. However, revenue gap has no impact on debt burden.

Keywords: Revenue Gap, Economic Growth, Budget Deficit, Debt Burden

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Authors: Aare Kuusik, E. Loigu, O. Sokk, Argo Kuusik

Abstract:

This paper describes technological possibilities to enhance methane productionin the anaerobic stabilization of wastewater treatment plant excess sludge. This objective can be achieved by the addition of waste residues: crude glycerol from biodiesel production and residues from fishery. The addition ofglycerol in an amount by weight of 2 – 5% causes enhancement of methane production of about 250 – 400%. At the same time the percentage increase of total solids concentration in the outgoing sludge is ten or more times less. The containment of methane in biogas is higher in case of admixed substrate.

Keywords: Enhancement of methane production, fishery residues, waste glycerol

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Authors: I. Erins, J. Erina

Abstract:

The aim of the present article is to determine the impact of the external and internal factors of bank performance on the profitability indicators of the CEE countries banks in the period from 2006 to 2012. On the basis of research conducted abroad on bank and macroeconomic profitability indicators, in order to obtain research results, the authors evaluated return on average assets (ROAA) and return on average equity (ROAE) indicators of the CEE countries banks. The authors analyzed profitability indicators of banks using descriptive methods, SPSS data analysis methods, as well as data correlation and linear regression analysis. The authors concluded that most internal and external indicators of bank performance have no direct influence the profitability of the banks in the CEE countries. The only exceptions are credit risk and bank size, which affect one of the measures of bank profitability – return on average equity.

Keywords: Banks, CEE countries, Profitability ROAA, ROAE.

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Authors: C. S. Bianca Sabrina, N. Egidio Raimundo, L. Alexandre Baratella, C. H. João Paulo

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This paper aims to present a study, with the theoretical concepts and applications of the Quadcopter, using the MATLAB simulator. In order to use this tool, the study of the stability of the drone through a Proportional - Integral - Derivative (PID) controller will be presented. After the stability study, some tests are done on the simulator and its results will be presented. From the mathematical model, it is possible to find the Newton-Euler angles, so that it is possible to stabilize the quadcopter in a certain position in the air, starting from the ground. In order to understand the impact of the controllers gain values on the stabilization of the Euler-Newton angles, three conditions will be tested with different controller gain values.

Keywords: Controllers, drones, quadcopter, stability.

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Authors: Salim Ibrir

Abstract:

Sufficient linear matrix inequalities (LMI) conditions for regularization of discrete-time singular systems are given. Then a new class of regularizing stabilizing controllers is discussed. The proposed controllers are the sum of predictive and memoryless state feedbacks. The predictive controller aims to regularizing the singular system while the memoryless state feedback is designed to stabilize the resulting regularized system. A systematic procedure is given to calculate the controller gains through linear matrix inequalities.

Keywords: Singular systems, Discrete-time systems, Regularization, LMIs

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Authors: A. Faro, D. Giordano, F. Maiorana

Abstract:

Data mining uses a variety of techniques each of which is useful for some particular task. It is important to have a deep understanding of each technique and be able to perform sophisticated analysis. In this article we describe a tool built to simulate a variation of the Kohonen network to perform unsupervised clustering and support the entire data mining process up to results visualization. A graphical representation helps the user to find out a strategy to optmize classification by adding, moving or delete a neuron in order to change the number of classes. The tool is also able to automatically suggest a strategy for number of classes optimization.The tool is used to classify macroeconomic data that report the most developed countries? import and export. It is possible to classify the countries based on their economic behaviour and use an ad hoc tool to characterize the commercial behaviour of a country in a selected class from the analysis of positive and negative features that contribute to classes formation.

Keywords: Unsupervised classification, Kohonen networks, macroeconomics, Visual data mining, cluster interpretation.

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Authors: Aleksandre Ergeshidze

Abstract:

The exchange rate is a pivotal pricing instrument that simultaneously impacts various components of the economy. Depreciation of nominal exchange rate is export promoting, which might be a desired export-led growth policy, and particularly critical to closing-down the widening current account imbalance. However, negative effects resulting from high dollarization and high share of imported intermediate inputs can outweigh positive effect. The aim of this research is to quantify impact of change in nominal exchange rate and test contractionary depreciation hypothesis on Georgian economy using structural and Bayesian vector autoregression. According to the acquired results, appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to decrease inflation, monetary policy rate, interest rate on domestic currency loans and economic growth in the medium run; however, impact on economic growth in the short run is statistically not significant.

Keywords: Bayesian vector autoregression, contractionary depreciation, dollarization, nominal exchange rate, structural vector autoregression.

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Authors: H. Ifassiouen, M. Guisser, H.Medromi

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This paper presents an investigation into the design of a flight control system, using a robust sliding mode control structure, designed using the exact feedback linearization procedure of the dynamic of a small-size autonomous helicopter in hover. The robustness of the controller in the context of stabilization and trajectory tracking with respect to small body forces and air resistance on the main and tail rotor, is analytically proved using Lyapunov approach. Some simulation results are presented to illustrate the performance and robustness of such controller in the presence of small body forces and air resistance.

Keywords: Robust control, sliding mode, stability, Lyapunovapproach.

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Authors: Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has significantly improved the real GDP and reduced the government fiscal deficit. On the other hand, the removal of the fuel subsidy has increased most of the local commodity prices, especially energy commodities. The findings of the study could provide some imperative inputs for policy makers, especially to identify the right policy mechanism. This is especially ensures the subsidy savings from subsidy removal could be transferred back into the domestic economy in the form of infrastructure development, compensation and increases in others sector output contributions towards a sustainable economic growth.

Keywords: CGE, deficit, energy, reform, subsidy.

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Authors: Zhazgul Kelgenbaeva, Emil Omurzak, Saadat Sulaimankulova, Tsutomu Mashimo

Abstract:

Spherical shaped magnetite (Fe3O4) and Au@Fe3O4 nanoparticles were successfully synthesized from Fe electrodes immersed in water with CTAB surfactant and HAuCl4 solution using simple method-pulsed plasma in liquid, without the use of dopants or special conditions for stabilization. Vibrating sample magnetometer indicated ferromagnetic behavior of particles at room temperature with coercivity and saturation magnetization of (Hc=105 Oe, Ms=6.83 emu/g) for Fe3O4 and (Hc=175, Ms=3.56emu/g) for Au@Fe3O4 nanoparticles. Structure and morphology of nanoparticles were characterized by X-ray Diffraction analysis and HR-TEM measurements. The cytotoxicity of nanoparticles was indicated using a XTT assay to be very low (cell viability: 98-89% with Fe3O4 and 99-91% for Au@Fe3O4 NPs).

Keywords: Magnetite, Gold coated magnetite, Nanoparticles, Pulsed Plasma in Liquid, Cytotoxicity.

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Authors: M. Almeshal, M. O. Tokhi, K. M. Goher

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A novel design of two-wheeled robotic vehicle with moving payload is presented in this paper. A mathematical model describing the vehicle dynamics is derived and simulated in Matlab Simulink environment. Two control strategies were developed to stabilise the vehicle in the upright position. A robust Proportional- Integral-Derivative (PID) control strategy has been implemented and initially tested to measure the system performance, while the second control strategy is to use a hybrid fuzzy logic controller (FLC). The results are given on a comparative basis for the system performance in terms of disturbance rejection, control algorithms robustness as well as the control effort in terms of input torque.

Keywords: double inverted pendulum, modelling, robust control, simulation,

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Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

Abstract:

While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: Balance, Business Survey, Confidence Indicators, Industrial Production, Forecasting.

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Authors: Naohiro Ban, Hiromitsu Ogawa, Manato Ono, Yoshihisa Ishida

Abstract:

This paper describes an expanded system for a servo system design by using the Loop Shaping Design Procedure (LSDP). LSDP is one of the H∞ design procedure. By conducting Loop Shaping with a compensator and robust stabilization to satisfy the index function, we get the feedback controller that makes the control system stable. In this paper, we propose an expanded system for a servo system design and apply to the DC motor. The proposed method performs well in the DC motor positioning control. It has no steady-state error in the disturbance response and it has robust stability.

Keywords: Loop Shaping Design Procedure (LSDP), servosystem, DC motor.

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Authors: Ehigiamusoe, Uyi Kizito

Abstract:

The paper examines the impact of money market on economic growth in Nigeria using data for the period 1980-2012. Econometrics techniques such as Ordinary Least Squares Method, Johanson’s Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model were used to examine both the long-run and short-run relationship. Evidence from the study suggest that though a long-run relationship exists between money market and economic growth, but the present state of the Nigerian money market is significantly and negatively related to economic growth. The link between the money market and the real sector of the economy remains very weak. This implies that the market is not yet developed enough to produce the needed growth that will propel the Nigerian economy because of several challenges. It was therefore recommended that government should create the appropriate macroeconomic policies, legal framework and sustain the present reforms with a view to developing the market so as to promote productive activities, investments, and ultimately economic growth.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Investments, Money Market, Money Market Challenges, Money Market Instruments.

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Authors: S. Houssaini, L. Bahi

Abstract:

The motorway segment between Tangier and Oued R’mel has experienced, since the beginning of building works, significant instability and landslides linked to a number of geological, hydrogeological and geothermic factors affecting the different formations. The landslides observed are not fully understood, despite many studies conducted on this segment. This study aims at producing new methods to better explain the phenomena behind the landslides, taking into account the geotechnical and geothermic contexts. This analysis builds up on previous studies and geotechnical data collected in the field. The final body of data collected shall be processed through the Plaxis software for a better and customizable view of the landslide problems in the area, which will help tofind solutions and stabilize land in the area.

Keywords: Landslides, modeling, risk, stabilization.

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