Search results for: Stock Price forecast

Authors: Fatemeh Mosalman Yazdi

Abstract:

One of the most important requirements for the operation and planning activities of an electrical utility is the prediction of load for the next hour to several days out, known as short term load forecasting. This paper presents the development of an artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting model. The model can forecast daily load profiles with a load time of one day for next 24 hours. In this method can divide days of year with using average temperature. Groups make according linearity rate of curve. Ultimate forecast for each group obtain with considering weekday and weekend. This paper investigates effects of temperature and humidity on consuming curve. For forecasting load curve of holidays at first forecast pick and valley and then the neural network forecast is re-shaped with the new data. The ANN-based load models are trained using hourly historical. Load data and daily historical max/min temperature and humidity data. The results of testing the system on data from Yazd utility are reported.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Holiday forecasting, pickand valley load forecasting, Short-term load-forecasting.

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Authors: S. Homrossukon, W. Parinyasart

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This is an applied research to propose the method for price quotation for a contract electronics manufacturer. It has had a precise price quoting method but such method could not quickly provide a result as the customer required. This reduces the ability of company to compete in this kind of business. In this case, the cause of long time quotation process was analyzed. A lot of product features have been demanded by customer. By checking routine processes, it was found that high fraction of quoting time was used for production time estimating which has effected to the manufacturing or production cost. Then the historical data of products including types, number of components, assembling method, and their assembling time were used to analyze the key components affecting to production time. The price quoting model then was proposed. The implementation of proposed model was able to remarkably reduce quoting time with an acceptable required precision.

Keywords: Price quoting, Contract manufacturer, Stepwise technique, Best subset technique.

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Authors: S. Pathomsiri, P. Sukaboon

Abstract:

The National Blood Center, Thai Red Cross Society is responsible for providing blood to hospitals all over the country. When any hospital needs blood, it will have to send the vehicle to pick up at the NBC. There are a lot of vehicles to pick up blood at the NBC every day. Each vehicle is usually empty for inbound trip and a little loaded for outbound. The NBC realized such waste or loss and there have been the third party offered to distribute blood and charge for fee. This paper proposes to apply the vehicle routing problem (VRP) for estimating the fair price. The idea is tested with the real data during seven-day period of 6 – 12 July 2010 to estimate the fair price for transporting blood in Bangkok Metropolitan Region.

Keywords: Blood Supply Chain, Vehicle Routing Problem, Heuristic, Saving Algorithm, Fair Price.

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Authors: Jui P. Hung, Hsia C. Chang, Yuan L. Lai

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Introduction applicability of high-speed cutting stock problem (CSP) is presented in this paper. Due to the orders continued coming in from various on-line ways for a professional cutting company, to stay competitive, such a business has to focus on sustained production at high levels. In others words, operators have to keep the machine running to stay ahead of the pack. Therefore, the continuous stock cutting problem with setup is proposed to minimize the cutting time and pattern changing time to meet the on-line given demand. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to solve the problem directly by using cutting patterns directly. A major advantage of the proposed method in series on-line production is that the system can adjust the cutting plan according to the floating orders. Examples with multiple items are demonstrated. The results show considerable efficiency and reliability in high-speed cutting of CSP.

Keywords: Cutting stock, Optimization, Heuristics

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Authors: Jingxian An, Wei Yu

Abstract:

The commercial value (retail price) of wine is mostly determined by the wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence. This paper reveals that wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence are favourably correlated, hence positively influencing the commercial value of Pinot noir wines. Oak influence is the most influential of these three sensory attributes on the price set by wine traders and estimated by experienced customers. In the meanwhile, this study gives winemakers with chemical instructions for raising total phenolics, which can improve wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence, all of which can increase a wine’s economic worth.

Keywords: Retail price, ageing potential, wine quality, oak influence.

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.

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Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry, Nikos Mastorakis

Abstract:

Fast forecasting of stock market prices is very important for strategic planning. In this paper, a new approach for fast forecasting of stock market prices is presented. Such algorithm uses new high speed time delay neural networks (HSTDNNs). The operation of these networks relies on performing cross correlation in the frequency domain between the input data and the input weights of neural networks. It is proved mathematically and practically that the number of computation steps required for the presented HSTDNNs is less than that needed by traditional time delay neural networks (TTDNNs). Simulation results using MATLAB confirm the theoretical computations.

Keywords: Fast Forecasting, Stock Market Prices, Time Delay NeuralNetworks, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain.

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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Authors: H. Zarei, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, M. Karbasian

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A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock portfolio. In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno- Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems, fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return and the other for risk. In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules, treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user. The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of 2003-2006 selected for data gathering.

Keywords: Stock Portfolio Selection, Fuzzy Rule-Base ExpertSystems, Financial Decision Support Systems, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis.

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

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The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: Deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction.

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Authors: H. D. Ibrahim, H. C. Chinwenyi, A. H. Usman

Abstract:

Valuing derivatives (options, futures, swaps, forwards, etc.) is one uneasy task in financial mathematics. The two ways this problem can be effectively resolved in finance is by the use of two methods (Martingales and Partial Differential Equations (PDEs)) to obtain their respective options price valuation formulas. This research paper examined two different stochastic financial models which are Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model and Black-Karasinski term structure model. Assuming their respective option price valuation formulas, we proved the analogous of the Martingales and PDEs options price valuation formulas for the two different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models. This was accomplished by using the applications of Girsanov theorem for defining an Equivalent Martingale Measure (EMM) and the Feynman-Kac theorem. The results obtained show the systematic proof for analogous of the two (Martingales and PDEs) options price valuation formulas beginning with the Martingales option price formula and arriving back at the Black-Scholes parabolic PDEs and vice versa.

Keywords: Option price valuation, Martingales, Partial Differential Equations, PDEs, Equivalent Martingale Measure, Girsanov Theorem, Feyman-Kac Theorem, European Put Option.

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Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Alfred V Gborie

Abstract:

Rice, which is the staple food in Sierra Leone, is consumed on a daily basis. It is the most imperative food crop extensively grown by farmers across all ecologies in the country. Though much attention is now given to rice grain production through the small holder commercialization programme (SHCP), however, no attention has been given in investigating the limitations faced by rice producers. This paper will contribute to attempts to overcome the development challenges caused by food insecurity. The objective of this paper is thus, to analysis the relationship between rice production and the domestic retail price of rice. The study employed a log linear model in which, the quantity of rice produced is the dependent variable, quantity of rice imported, price of imported rice and price of domestic rice as explanatory variables. Findings showed that, locally produced rice is even more expensive than the imported rice per ton, and almost all the inhabitants in the capital city which hosts about 65% of the entire population of the country favor imported rice, as it is free from stones with other impurities. On the other hand, to control price and simultaneously increase rice production, the government should purchase the rice from the farmers and then sell to private retailers.

Keywords: Domestic price of rice, Econometric model, Rice production, Sierra Leone.

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Authors: Myungsook Klassen

Abstract:

Training neural networks to capture an intrinsic property of a large volume of high dimensional data is a difficult task, as the training process is computationally expensive. Input attributes should be carefully selected to keep the dimensionality of input vectors relatively small. Technical indexes commonly used for stock market prediction using neural networks are investigated to determine its effectiveness as inputs. The feed forward neural network of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied to perform one step ahead forecasting of NASDAQ and Dow stock prices.

Keywords: Stock Market Prediction, Neural Networks, Levenberg-Marquadt Algorithm, Technical Indexes

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Authors: Lina Al-Qatawneh, Abdallah Abdallah, Salam Zalloum

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In managing healthcare logistics, cost is not the only factor to be considered. The level of items- criticality used in patient care services plays an important role as well. A stock-out incident of a high critical item could threaten a patient's life. In this paper, the DMAIC (Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control) methodology is used to drive improvement projects based on customer driven critical to quality characteristics at a Jordanian hospital. This paper shows how the application of Six Sigma improves the performance of the case hospital logistics system by reducing the number of stock-out incidents.

Keywords: Criticality level, Healthcare, Logistics, and Six Sigma.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R² of 0.8428 and R² (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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Authors: Aussadavut Dumrongsiri

Abstract:

Westudy a dual-channel supply chain under decentralized setting in which manufacturer sells to retailer and to customers directly usingan online channel. A customer chooses the purchase-channel based on price and service quality. Also, to buy product from the retail store, the customer incurs a transportation cost influenced by the fluctuating gasoline cost. Both companies are under the revenue sharing contract. In this contract the retailer share a portion of the revenue to the manufacturer while the manufacturer will charge the lower wholesales price. The numerical result shows that the effects of gasoline costs, the revenue sharing ratio and the wholesale price play an important role in determining optimal prices. The result shows that when the gasoline price fluctuatesthe optimal on-line priceis relatively stable while the optimal retail price moves in the opposite direction of the gasoline prices.

Keywords: direct-channel, e-business, pricing model, dualchannel supply chain, gasoline cost, revenue sharing

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Authors: Hsuan-Ku Liu

Abstract:

In this paper, the American exchange option (AEO) valuation problem is modelled as a free boundary problem. The critical stock price for an AEO is satisfied an integral equation implicitly. When the remaining time is large enough, an asymptotic formula is provided for pricing an AEO. The numerical results reveal that our asymptotic pricing formula is robust and accurate for the long-term AEO.

Keywords: Integral equation, asymptotic solution, free boundary problem, American exchange option.

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Authors: Mohammad Irfan

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.

Keywords: Indian shariah indices, macroeconomic variables, co-integration, Granger causality, Vector error correction model.

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

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With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: Energy-efficient buildings, Hierarchical model predictive control, Microgrid power flow optimization, Price-optimal building climate control.

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Authors: H. L. Yim, S. H. Lee, S. K. Yoo, J. J. Kim

Abstract:

This study proposes a materials procurement contracts model to which the zero-cost collar option is applied for heading price fluctuation risks in construction.The material contract model based on the collar option that consists of the call option striking zone of the construction company(the buyer) following the materials price increase andthe put option striking zone of the material vendor(the supplier) following a materials price decrease. This study first determined the call option strike price Xc of the construction company by a simple approach: it uses the predicted profit at the project starting point and then determines the strike price of put option Xp that has an identical option value, which completes the zero-cost material contract.The analysis results indicate that the cost saving of the construction company increased as Xc decreased. This was because the critical level of the steel materials price increasewas set at a low level. However, as Xc decreased, Xpof a put option that had an identical option value gradually increased. Cost saving increased as Xc decreased. However, as Xp gradually increased, the risk of loss from a construction company increased as the steel materials price decreased. Meanwhile, cost saving did not occur for the construction company, because of volatility. This result originated in the zero-cost features of the two-way contract of the collar option. In the case of the regular one-way option, the transaction cost had to be subtracted from the cost saving. The transaction cost originated from an option value that fluctuated with the volatility. That is, the cost saving of the one-way option was affected by the volatility. Meanwhile, even though the collar option with zero transaction cost cut the connection between volatility and cost saving, there was a risk of exercising the put option.

Keywords: Construction materials, Supply chain management, Procurement, Payment, Collar option

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Authors: Liang-Chien Lee, Chih-Hsiang Chang, Ying-Shu Tseng

Abstract:

Comparing with prior studies mainly focused on the effect of a certain event (it may be the initial announcement of bad news or the repeated announcements of identical bad news) on stock price, the aim of this study is to explore how investors react to subsequent bad news with identical content. Empirical results show that as a result of behavioral pitfalls, investors underreact to the initial announcement of the bad news (i.e., unknown bad news) and overreact to the repeated announcements of the identical bad news (i.e., known bad news).

Keywords: Subsequent bad news, Behavioral finance, Investors’ misreaction, Behavioral pitfalls.

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Authors: M. Stoklasa, H. Starzyczna, K. Matusinska

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This article deals with the perceived quality of regional products in the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic. Research was focused on finding out what do consumers perceive as a quality product and what characteristics make a quality product. The data were obtained by questionnaire survey andanalysed by IBM SPSS. From the thousands of respondents the representative sample of 719 for MS region was created based on demographic factors of gender, age, education and income. The research analysis disclosed that consumers in MS region are still price oriented and that the preference of quality over price does not depend on regional brand knowledge.

Keywords: Regional brands, quality products, characteristics of quality, quality over price.

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction.

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Authors: Stefaan Pauwels, Koen Inghelbrecht, Dries Heyman, Pieter Marius

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Literature reveals that many investors rely on technical trading rules when making investment decisions. If stock markets are efficient, one cannot achieve superior results by using these trading rules. However, if market inefficiencies are present, profitable opportunities may arise. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of technical trading rules in 34 emerging stock markets. The performance of the rules is evaluated by utilizing White-s Reality Check and the Superior Predictive Ability test of Hansen, along with an adjustment for transaction costs. These tests are able to evaluate whether the best model performs better than a buy-and-hold benchmark. Further, they provide an answer to data snooping problems, which is essential to obtain unbiased outcomes. Based on our results we conclude that technical trading rules are not able to outperform a naïve buy-and-hold benchmark on a consistent basis. However, we do find significant trading rule profits in 4 of the 34 investigated markets. We also present evidence that technical analysis is more profitable in crisis situations. Nevertheless, this result is relatively weak.

Keywords: technical trading rules, Reality Check, Superior Predictive Ability, emerging stock markets, data snooping

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Authors: Somphoom Sawaengkun

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was primarily assessing how important economic factors namely: The Thai export price of white rice, the exchange rate, and the world rice consumption affect the overall Thai white rice export, using historical data during the period 1989-2013 from the Thai Rice Exporters Association, and Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. The co-integration method, regression analysis, and error correction model were applied to investigate the econometric model. The findings indicated that in the long-run, the world rice consumption, the exchange rate, and the Thai export price of white rice were the important factors affecting the export quantity of Thai white rice respectively, as indicated by their significant coefficients. Meanwhile, the rice export price was an important factor affecting the export quantity of Thai white rice in the short-run. This information is useful in the business, export opportunities, price competitiveness, and policymaker in Thailand.

Keywords: Economic Factors, Rice Export, White Rice.

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Authors: Costin Badica, Maria Ganzha, Maciej Gawinecki, Pawel Kobzdej, Marcin Paprzycki

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Recently, we have presented an initial implementation of a model agent-based e-commerce system, which utilized a simple price negotiation mechanism–English Auction. In this note we discuss how a Dutch Auction involving multiple units of a product can be included in our system. We present UML diagrams of agents involved in price negotiations and briefly discuss rule-based mechanism exemplifying Dutch Auction.

Keywords: e-commerce, rule-based price negotiation mechanism, Dutch Auction, agent system.

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.

Keywords: Condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand.

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Authors: Zahra Ghadampour, Gholamreza Rakhshandehroo

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A concern that researchers usually face in different applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is determination of the size of effective domain in time series. In this paper, trial and error method was used on groundwater depth time series to determine the size of effective domain in the series in an observation well in Union County, New Jersey, U.S. different domains of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 120 preceding day were examined and the 80 days was considered as effective length of the domain. Data sets in different domains were fed to a Feed Forward Back Propagation ANN with one hidden layer and the groundwater depths were forecasted. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the correlation factor (R2) of estimated and observed groundwater depths for all domains were determined. In general, groundwater depth forecast improved, as evidenced by lower RMSEs and higher R2s, when the domain length increased from 20 to 120. However, 80 days was selected as the effective domain because the improvement was less than 1% beyond that. Forecasted ground water depths utilizing measured daily data (set #1) and data averaged over the effective domain (set #2) were compared. It was postulated that more accurate nature of measured daily data was the reason for a better forecast with lower RMSE (0.1027 m compared to 0.255 m) in set #1. However, the size of input data in this set was 80 times the size of input data in set #2; a factor that may increase the computational effort unpredictably. It was concluded that 80 daily data may be successfully utilized to lower the size of input data sets considerably, while maintaining the effective information in the data set.

Keywords: Neural networks, groundwater depth, forecast.

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