Search results for: Microscopic simulation

Authors: Teerapun Saeheaw, Nivit Charoenchai, Wichai Chattinnawat

Abstract:

Simulation model is an easy way to build up models to represent real life scenarios, to identify bottlenecks and to enhance system performance. Using a valid simulation model may give several advantages in creating better manufacturing design in order to improve the system performances. This paper presents result of implementing a simulation model to design hard disk drive manufacturing process by applying line balancing to improve both productivity and quality of hard disk drive process. The line balance efficiency showed 86% decrease in work in process, output was increased by an average of 80%, average time in the system was decreased 86% and waiting time was decreased 90%.

Keywords: line balancing, arena, hard disk drive process, simulation, work in process (WIP)

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Authors: G. Papageorgiou, A. Hadjis

Abstract:

This paper examines the problem of strategic management in highly turbulent dynamic business environmental conditions. As shown the high complexity of the problem can be managed with the use of System Dynamics Models and Computer Simulation in obtaining insights, and thorough understanding of the interdependencies between the organizational structure and the business environmental elements, so that effective product –market strategies can be designed. Simulation reveals the underlying forces that hold together the structure of an organizational system in relation to its environment. Such knowledge will contribute to the avoidance of fundamental planning errors and enable appropriate proactive well focused action.

Keywords: Strategic Management, System Dynamics, Modelingand Simulation, Strategic Planning, Organizational Dynamics

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Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan

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Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.

Keywords: Border of the universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps.

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Authors: Reza Maddahian, Bijan Farhanieh, Simin Dokht Saemi

Abstract:

In this research the separation efficiency of deoiling hydrocyclone is evaluated using three-dimensional simulation of multiphase flow based on Eulerian-Eulerian finite volume method. The mixture approach of Reynolds Stress Model is also employed to capture the features of turbulent multiphase swirling flow. The obtained separation efficiency of Colman's design is compared with available experimental data and showed that the separation curve of deoiling hydrocyclones can be predicted using numerical simulation.

Keywords: Deoiling hydrocyclone, Eulerian-Eulerian Model, Numerical simulation, Separation efficiency, Reynolds Stress Model

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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Authors: Jameela Ali Alkrimi, Loay E. George, Azizah Suliman, Abdul Rahim Ahmad, Karim Al-Jashamy

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Red blood cells (RBCs) are among the most commonly and intensively studied type of blood cells in cell biology. Anemia is a lack of RBCs is characterized by its level compared to the normal hemoglobin level. In this study, a system based image processing methodology was developed to localize and extract RBCs from microscopic images. Also, the machine learning approach is adopted to classify the localized anemic RBCs images. Several textural and geometrical features are calculated for each extracted RBCs. The training set of features was analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA). With the proposed method, RBCs were isolated in 4.3secondsfrom an image containing 18 to 27 cells. The reasons behind using PCA are its low computation complexity and suitability to find the most discriminating features which can lead to accurate classification decisions. Our classifier algorithm yielded accuracy rates of 100%, 99.99%, and 96.50% for K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) algorithm, support vector machine (SVM), and neural network RBFNN, respectively. Classification was evaluated in highly sensitivity, specificity, and kappa statistical parameters. In conclusion, the classification results were obtained within short time period, and the results became better when PCA was used.

Keywords: Red blood cells, pre-processing image algorithms, classification algorithms, principal component analysis PCA, confusion matrix, kappa statistical parameters, ROC.

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Authors: Shigeyuki Haruyama , Didik Nurhadiyanto, Moch Agus Choiron, Ken Kaminishi

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The previous study of new metal gasket that contact width and contact stress an important design parameter for optimizing metal gasket performance. The optimum design based on an elastic and plastic contact stress was founded. However, the influence of flange surface roughness had not been investigated thoroughly. The flange has many kinds of surface roughness. In this study, we conducted a gasket model include a flange surface roughness effect. A finite element method was employed to develop simulation solution. A uniform quadratic mesh used for meshing the gasket material and a gradually quadrilateral mesh used for meshing the flange. The gasket model was simulated by using two simulation stages which is forming and tightening simulation. A simulation result shows that a smoother of surface roughness has higher slope for force per unit length. This mean a squeezed against between flange and gasket will be strong. The slope of force per unit length for gasket 400-MPa mode was higher than the gasket 0-MPa mode.

Keywords: Surface roughness, flange, metal gasket, leakage, simulation.

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Authors: Hye Lyeong Kim, Sang Yeong Choi

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This paper discusses a discrete event simulation model for the availability analysis of weapon systems. This model incorporates missions, operational tasks and system reliability structures to analyze the availability of a weapon system. The proposed simulation model consists of 5 modules: Simulation Engine, Maintenance Organizations, System, its Mission Profile and RBD which are based on missions and operational tasks. Simulation Engine executes three kinds of discrete events in chronological order. The events are mission events generated by Mission Profile, failure events generated by System, and maintenance events executed by Maintenance Organization. Finally, this paper shows the case study of a system's availability analysis and mission reliability using the simulation model.

Keywords: MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure), MTTR (Mean Time To Repair), Availability, Reliability, RBD (Reliability Block Diagram)

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Authors: S. Shubha, B. N. Meera

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Physics Education Research (PER) results have shown that students do not achieve the expected level of competency in understanding the concepts of different domains of Physics learning when taught by the traditional teaching methods, the concepts of Electricity and Magnetism (E&M) being one among them. Simulation being one of the valuable instructional tools renders an opportunity to visualize varied experiences with such concepts. Considering the electric force concept which requires extensive use of vector representations, we report here the outcome of the research results pertaining to the student understanding of this concept and the role of simulation in using vector representation. The simulation platform provides a positive impact on the use of vector representation. The first stage of this study involves eliciting and analyzing student responses to questions that probe their understanding of the concept of electrostatic force and this is followed by four stages of student interviews as they use the interactive simulations of electric force in one dimension. Student responses to the questions are recorded in real time using electronic pad. A validation test interview is conducted to evaluate students' understanding of the electric force concept after using interactive simulation. Results indicate lack of procedural knowledge of the vector representation. The study emphasizes the need for the choice of appropriate simulation and mode of induction for learning.

Keywords: Electric Force, Interactive, Representation, Simulation.

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Authors: Su-Yan Tang, Wei Zhang, Shan Mei, Yi-Fan Zhu

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Network-Centric Air Defense Missile Systems (NCADMS) represents the superior development of the air defense missile systems and has been regarded as one of the major research issues in military domain at present. Due to lack of knowledge and experience on NCADMS, modeling and simulation becomes an effective approach to perform operational analysis, compared with those equation based ones. However, the complex dynamic interactions among entities and flexible architectures of NCADMS put forward new requirements and challenges to the simulation framework and models. ABS (Agent-Based Simulations) explicitly addresses modeling behaviors of heterogeneous individuals. Agents have capability to sense and understand things, make decisions, and act on the environment. They can also cooperate with others dynamically to perform the tasks assigned to them. ABS proves an effective approach to explore the new operational characteristics emerging in NCADMS. In this paper, based on the analysis of network-centric architecture and new cooperative engagement strategies for NCADMS, an agent-based simulation framework by expanding the simulation framework in the so-called System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) was designed. The simulation framework specifies components, relationships and interactions between them, the structure and behavior rules of an agent in NCADMS. Based on scenario simulations, information and decision superiority and operational advantages in NCADMS were analyzed; meanwhile some suggestions were provided for its future development.

Keywords: air defense missile systems, network-centric, agent-based simulation, simulation framework, information superiority, decision superiority, operational advantages

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Authors: Mohammad H. Almomani, Rosmanjawati Abdul Rahman

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Statistical selection procedures are used to select the best simulated system from a finite set of alternatives. In this paper, we present a procedure that can be used to select the best system when the number of alternatives is large. The proposed procedure consists a combination between Ranking and Selection, and Ordinal Optimization procedures. In order to improve the performance of Ordinal Optimization, Optimal Computing Budget Allocation technique is used to determine the best simulation lengths for all simulation systems and to reduce the total computation time. We also argue the effect of increment in simulation samples for the combined procedure. The results of numerical illustration show clearly the effect of increment in simulation samples on the proposed combination of selection procedure.

Keywords: Indifference-Zone, Optimal Computing Budget Allocation, Ordinal Optimization, Ranking and Selection, Subset Selection.

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Authors: Behrouz Fathi-Vajargah, Sara Ghasemalipour

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This paper studies a random fuzzy queueing system that the interarrival times of customers arriving at the server and the service times are independent and identically distributed random fuzzy variables. We match the random fuzzy queueing system with the random fuzzy alternating renewal process and we do not use from α-pessimistic and α-optimistic values to estimate the average chance of the event ”random fuzzy queueing system is busy at time t”, we employ the fuzzy simulation method in practical applications. Some theorem is proved and finally we solve a numerical example with fuzzy simulation method.

Keywords: Random fuzzy variables, Fuzzy simulation, Queueing system, Interarrival times.

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Authors: Syahanim Mohd Salleh, Zaihosnita Hood, Hairulliza Mohd Judi, Marini Abu Bakar

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CFlow is a flow chart software, it contains facilities to draw and evaluate a flow chart. A flow chart evaluation applies a simulation method to enable presentation of work flow in a flow chart solution. Flow chart simulation of CFlow is executed by manipulating the CFlow data file which is saved in a graphical vector format. These text-based data are organised by using a data classification technic based on a Library classification-scheme. This paper describes the file format for flow chart simulation software of CFlow.

Keywords: CFlow, flow chart, file format.

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Authors: Razieh Arian, Hadi Adibi-Asl

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This paper investigates an efficient combustion modeling for cycle simulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) studies. The term “efficient model” means that the models must generate desired simulation results while having fast simulation time. In other words, the efficient model is defined based on the application of the model. The objective of this study is to develop math-based models for control applications or shortly control-oriented models. This study compares different modeling approaches used to model the ICEs such as mean-value models, zero dimensional, quasi-dimensional, and multi-dimensional models for control applications. Mean-value models have been widely used for model-based control applications, but recently by developing advanced simulation tools (e.g. Maple/MapleSim) the higher order models (more complex) could be considered as control-oriented models. This paper presents the enhanced zero-dimensional cycle-by-cycle modeling and simulation of a spark ignition engine with a two-zone combustion model. The simulation results are cross-validated against the simulation results from GT-Power package and show a good agreement in terms of trends and values.

Keywords: Two-zone combustion, control-oriented model, wiebe function, internal combustion engine.

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Authors: Eugene Kindler

Abstract:

2007 is a jubilee year: in 1967, programming language SIMULA 67 was presented, which contained all aspects of what was later called object-oriented programming. The present paper contains a description of the development unto the objectoriented programming, the role of simulation in this development and other tools that appeared in SIMULA 67 and that are nowadays called super-object-oriented programming.

Keywords: Simulation, super-object-oriented programming, object-oriented programming, SIMULA.

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Authors: Peyman Naderi, Ali Farhadi, S. Mohammad Taghi Bathaee

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One of the best ways for achievement of conventional vehicle changing to hybrid case is trustworthy simulation result and using of driving realities. For this object, in this paper, at first sevendegree- of-freedom dynamical model of vehicle will be shown. Then by using of statically model of engine, gear box, clutch, differential, electrical machine and battery, the hybrid automobile modeling will be down and forward simulation of vehicle for pedals to wheels power transformation will be obtained. Then by design of a fuzzy controller and using the proper rule base, fuel economy and regenerative braking will be marked. Finally a series of MATLAB/SIMULINK simulation results will be proved the effectiveness of proposed structure.

Keywords: Hybrid, Driving, Fuzzy, Regeneration.

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu, M. Jamali

Abstract:

The paper deals with the simulation of the crude distillation process using the Unisim Design simulator. The necessity of simulating this process is argued both by considerations related to the design of the crude distillation column, but also by considerations related to the design of advanced control systems. In order to use the Unisim Design simulator to simulate the crude distillation process, the identification of the simulators used in Romania and an analysis of the PRO/II, HYSYS, and Aspen HYSYS simulators were carried out. Analysis of the simulators for the crude distillation process has allowed the authors to elaborate the conclusions of the success of the crude modelling. A first aspect developed by the authors is the implementation of specific problems of petroleum liquid-vapors equilibrium using Unisim Design simulator. The second major element of the article is the development of the methodology and the elaboration of the simulation program for the crude distillation process, using Unisim Design resources. The obtained results validate the proposed methodology and will allow dynamic simulation of the process.  

Keywords: Crude oil, distillation, simulation, Unisim Design, simulators.

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Authors: Tarek Elhasia, Bernd Noche, Lima Zhao

Abstract:

In recent years, sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) has been widely researched in academic domain. However, due to the traditional operational role and the complexity of supply chain management in the cement industry, a relatively small amount of research has been conducted on cement supply chain simulation integrated with sustainability criteria. This paper analyses the cement supply chain operations using the Push-Pull supply chain frameworks, the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology; and proposal integration approach, proposes three supply chain scenarios based on Make-To-Stock (MTS), Pack-To-Order (PTO) and Grind- To-Order (GTO) strategies. A Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) model of SSCM is constructed using Arena software to implement the three-target scenarios. We conclude with the simulation results that (GTO) is the optimal supply chain strategy that demonstrates the best economic, ecological and social performance in the cement industry.

Keywords: Cement industry, simulation, supply chain management (SCM), sustainability.

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Authors: Meisam Moghadasi, Hassan Ali Ozgoli, Foad Farhani

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In this research, firstly, a commercial gas sweetening unit with methyl-di-ethanol-amine (MDEA) solution is simulated and comprised in an integrated model in accordance with Aspen HYSYS software. For evaluation purposes, in the second step, the results of the simulation are compared with operating data gathered from South Pars Gas Complex (SPGC). According to the simulation results, the considerable energy potential contributed to the pressure difference between absorber and regenerator columns causes this energy driving force to be applied in power recovery turbine (PRT). In the last step, the amount of waste hydraulic energy is calculated, and its recovery methods are investigated.

Keywords: Gas sweetening unit, simulation, MDEA, power recovery turbine, waste-to-energy.

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Authors: Anita, Sari Septiani Tangke, Rusdina Bte Ladju, Nasrum Massi

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New diagnostic tools are urgently needed to interrupt the transmission of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. The microscopic-observation drug-susceptibility (MODS) assay is a rapid, accurate and simple liquid culture method to detect multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). MODS were evaluated to determine a lower and same concentration of isoniazid and rifampin for detection of MDR-TB. Direct drug-susceptibility testing was performed with the use of the MODS assay. Drug-sensitive control strains were tested daily. The drug concentrations that used for both isoniazid and rifampin were at the same concentration: 0.16, 0.08 and 0.04μg per milliliter. We tested 56 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates and the control strains M. tuberculosis H37RV. All concentration showed same result. Of 53 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates, 14 were MDR-TB, 38 were susceptible with isoniazid and rifampin, 1 was resistant with isoniazid only. Drug-susceptibility testing was performed with the use of the proportion method using Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) system as reference. The result of MODS assay using lower concentration was significance (P<0.001) compare with the reference methods.

A lower and same concentration of isoniazid and rifampin can be used to detect MDR-TB. Operational cost and application can be more efficient and easier in resource-limited environments. However, additional studies evaluating the MODS using lower and same concentration of isoniazid and rifampin must be conducted with a larger number of clinical isolates.

Keywords: Isoniazid, MODS assay, MDR-TB, Rifampin.

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Authors: C. B. Masera, M. Imprialou, L. Budd, C. Morton

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Even though signalised intersections are necessary for urban road traffic management, they can act as bottlenecks and disrupt traffic operations. Interrupted traffic flow causes congestion, delays, stop-and-go conditions (i.e. excessive acceleration/deceleration) and longer journey times. Vehicle and infrastructure connectivity offers the potential to provide improved new services with additional functions of assisting drivers. This paper focuses on one of the applications of vehicle-to-infrastructure communication namely Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA). To assess the effectiveness of GLOSA in the urban road network, an integrated microscopic traffic simulation framework is built into VISSIM software. Vehicle movements and vehicle-infrastructure communications are simulated through the interface of External Driver Model. A control algorithm is developed for recommending an optimal speed that is continuously updated in every time step for all vehicles approaching a signal-controlled point. This algorithm allows vehicles to pass a traffic signal without stopping or to minimise stopping times at a red phase. This study is performed with all connected vehicles at 100% penetration rate. Conventional vehicles are also simulated in the same network as a reference. A straight road segment composed of two opposite directions with two traffic lights per lane is studied. The simulation is implemented under 150 vehicles per hour and 200 per hour traffic volume conditions to identify how different traffic densities influence the benefits of GLOSA. The results indicate that traffic flow is improved by the application of GLOSA. According to this study, vehicles passed through the traffic lights more smoothly, and waiting times were reduced by up to 28 seconds. Average delays decreased for the entire network by 86.46% and 83.84% under traffic densities of 150 vehicles per hour per lane and 200 vehicles per hour per lane, respectively.

Keywords: Connected vehicles, GLOSA, intelligent transportation systems, infrastructure-to-vehicle communication.

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Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Yongho Chung, Sang C. Park

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Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: Performance Forecasting, Simulation, Virtual Manned Assembly Line.

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Authors: Oliver Mărunţălu, Gheorghe Lăzăroiu, Elena Elisabeta Manea, Dana Andreya Bondrea, Lăcrămioara Diana Robescu

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This paper presents the results obtained by numerical simulation using the software ANSYS CFX-CFD for the air pollutants dispersion in the atmosphere coming from the evacuation of combustion gases resulting from the fuel combustion in an electric thermal power plant. The model uses the Navier-Stokes equation to simulate the dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere. It is considered as important factors in elaboration of simulation the atmospheric conditions (pressure, temperature, wind speed, wind direction), the exhaust velocity of the combustion gases, chimney height and the obstacles (buildings). Using the air quality monitoring stations it is measured the concentrations of main pollutants (SO2, NOx and PM). The pollutants were monitored over a period of 3 months, after that the average concentration are calculated, which is used by the software. The concentrations are: 8.915 μg/m3 (NOx), 9.587 μg/m3 (SO2) and 42 μg/m3 (PM). A comparison of test data with simulation results demonstrated that CFX was able to describe the dispersion of the pollutant as well the concentration of this pollutants in the atmosphere.

Keywords: Air pollutants, computational fluid dynamics, dispersion, simulation.

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Authors: L. Grinis, V. Haslavsky

Abstract:

Stuck-pipe in drilling operations is one of the most pressing and expensive problems in the oil industry. This paper describes a computational simulation and an experimental study of the hydrodynamic vibrator, which may be used for liquidation of stuck-pipe problems during well drilling. The work principle of the vibrator is based upon the known phenomena of Vortex Street of Karman and the resulting generation of vibrations. We will discuss the computational simulation and experimental investigations of vibrations in this device. The frequency of the vibration parameters has been measured as a function of the wide range Reynolds Number. The validity of the computational simulation and of the assumptions on which it is based has been proved experimentally. The computational simulation of the vibrator work and its effectiveness was carried out using FLUENT software. The research showed high degree of congruence with the results of the laboratory tests and allowed to determine the effect of the granular material features upon the pipe vibration in the well. This study demonstrates the potential of using the hydrodynamic vibrator in a well drilling system.

Keywords: Drilling, stuck-pipe, vibration, vortex shedding.

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Authors: J. A. López, C.I. López, J.E. Olguín, C. Camargo, J. M. López

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The institutions seek to improve their performance and quality of service, so that their patients are satisfied. This research project aims, conduct a time study program in the area of gynecological surgery, to determine the current level of capacity and optimize the programming time in order to adequately respond to demand. The system is analyzed by waiting lines and uses the simulation using ARENA to evaluate proposals for improvement and optimization programming time each of the surgeries.

Keywords: Time study, waiting lines, reducing time, simulation.

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Authors: Ying Shang, Chencheng Wang

Abstract:

The wind field is the main driving factor for the spread of forest fires. For the simulation results of forest fire spread to be more accurate, it is necessary to obtain more detailed wind field data. Therefore, this paper studied the mountainous fine wind field simulation method coupled with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) to realize the numerical simulation of the wind field in a mountainous area with a scale of 30 m and a small measurement error. Local topographical changes have an important impact on the wind field. Based on the Rothermel fire spread model, a forest fire in Idaho in the western United States was simulated. The historical data proved that the simulation results had a good accuracy. They showed that the fire spread rate will decrease rapidly with time and then reach a steady state. After reaching a steady state, the fire spread growth area will not only be affected by the slope, but will also show a significant quadratic linear positive correlation with the wind speed change.

Keywords: Wind field, numerical simulation, forest fire spread, fire behavior model, complex terrain.

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Shabnam Ladan, M. S. Abrishamian

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In this paper we have developed a FDTD simulation code which can treat wave propagation of a monopole antenna in a metallic case which covers with PML, and performed a series of three dimensional FDTD simulations of electromagnetic wave propagation in this space .We also provide a measurement set up in antenna lab and fortunately the simulations and measurements show good agreement. According to simulation and measurement results, we confirmed that the computer program which had been written in FORTRAN, works correctly.

Keywords: FDTD, EMC, monopole antenna.

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Authors: Hisashi Kojima, Masatora Daito

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We investigate an asymmetric connections model with a dynamic network formation process, using an agent based simulation. We permit heterogeneity of agents- value. Valuable persons seem to have many links on real social networks. We focus on this point of view, and examine whether valuable agents change the structures of the terminal networks. Simulation reveals that valuable agents diversify the terminal networks. We can not find evidence that valuable agents increase the possibility that star networks survive the dynamic process. We find that valuable agents disperse the degrees of agents in each terminal network on an average.

Keywords: network formation, agent based simulation, connections model.

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