Search results for: Multivariate Data Analysis

Authors: Autjira Songan, Supattra Kanchanopast

Abstract:

The objectives of this research were to compare the success of SME registered in Nakorn Pathom Province divided in personal data also to study the relations between the innovation knowledge and capability and the success of SME registered in Nakorn Pathom Province and to study the relations between the work efficiency and the success of SME registered in Nakorn Pathom Province. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. Data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences.The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were male with the age between 25-34 years old, hold undergraduate degree, married and stay together. The average income of respondents was between 10,001-20,000 baht. It also found that in terms of innovation knowledge and capability, there were two variables had an influence on the amount of innovation knowledge and capability, innovation evaluation which were physical characteristic and innovation process.

Keywords: ccountants, Innovation, Knowledge, Work Efficiency.

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Authors: Mehdi Emadi, Masoud Rahgozar, Adel Ardalan, Alireza Kazerani, Mohammad Mahdi Ariyan

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The volume of XML data exchange is explosively increasing, and the need for efficient mechanisms of XML data management is vital. Many XML storage models have been proposed for storing XML DTD-independent documents in relational database systems. Benchmarking is the best way to highlight pros and cons of different approaches. In this study, we use a common benchmarking scheme, known as XMark to compare the most cited and newly proposed DTD-independent methods in terms of logical reads, physical I/O, CPU time and duration. We show the effect of Label Path, extracting values and storing in another table and type of join needed for each method's query answering.

Keywords: XML Data Management, XPath, DTD-IndependentXML Data

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Authors: Mehdi Emadi, Masoud Rahgozar, Adel Ardalan, Alireza Kazerani, Mohammad Mahdi Ariyan

Abstract:

The volume of XML data exchange is explosively increasing, and the need for efficient mechanisms of XML data management is vital. Many XML storage models have been proposed for storing XML DTD-independent documents in relational database systems. Benchmarking is the best way to highlight pros and cons of different approaches. In this study, we use a common benchmarking scheme, known as XMark to compare the most cited and newly proposed DTD-independent methods in terms of logical reads, physical I/O, CPU time and duration. We show the effect of Label Path, extracting values and storing in another table and type of join needed for each method-s query answering.

Keywords: XML Data Management, XPath, DTD-Independent XML Data.

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Authors: Sourabh Jain, Sukhvir Singh Jain, Gaurav V. Jain

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Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is the application of technology for developing a user–friendly transportation system for urban areas in developing countries. The goal of urban corridor management using ITS in road transport is to achieve improvements in mobility, safety, and the productivity of the transportation system within the available facilities through the integrated application of advanced monitoring, communications, computer, display, and control process technologies, both in the vehicle and on the road. This paper attempts to present the past studies regarding several ITS available that have been successfully deployed in urban corridors of India and abroad, and to know about the current scenario and the methodology considered for planning, design, and operation of Traffic Management Systems. This paper also presents the endeavor that was made to interpret and figure out the performance of the 27.4 Km long study corridor having eight intersections and four flyovers. The corridor consisting of 6 lanes as well as 8 lanes divided road network. Two categories of data were collected on February 2016 such as traffic data (traffic volume, spot speed, delay) and road characteristics data (no. of lanes, lane width, bus stops, mid-block sections, intersections, flyovers). The instruments used for collecting the data were video camera, radar gun, mobile GPS and stopwatch. From analysis, the performance interpretations incorporated were identification of peak hours and off peak hours, congestion and level of service (LOS) at mid blocks, delay followed by the plotting speed contours and recommending urban corridor management strategies. From the analysis, it is found that ITS based urban corridor management strategies will be useful to reduce congestion, fuel consumption and pollution so as to provide comfort and efficiency to the users. The paper presented urban corridor management strategies based on sensors incorporated in both vehicles and on the roads.

Keywords: Congestion, ITS Strategies, Mobility, Safety.

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Authors: M. Benbrahim, K. Benjelloun, A. Ibenbrahim, M. Kasmi, E. Ardil

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The automatic discrimination of seismic signals is an important practical goal for the earth-science observatories due to the large amount of information that they receive continuously. An essential discrimination task is to allocate the incoming signal to a group associated with the kind of physical phenomena producing it. In this paper, we present new techniques for seismic signals classification: local, regional and global discrimination. These techniques were tested on seismic signals from the data base of the National Geophysical Institute of the Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique (Morocco) by using the Moroccan software for seismic signals analysis.

Keywords: Seismic signals, local discrimination, regionaldiscrimination, global discrimination, Moroccan software for seismicsignals analysis.

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Authors: Dimitrios Zarpalas, Anastasios Zafeiropoulos, Petros Daras, Nicos Maglaveras

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Segmentation techniques based on Active Contour Models have been strongly benefited from the use of prior information during their evolution. Shape prior information is captured from a training set and is introduced in the optimization procedure to restrict the evolution into allowable shapes. In this way, the evolution converges onto regions even with weak boundaries. Although significant effort has been devoted on different ways of capturing and analyzing prior information, very little thought has been devoted on the way of combining image information with prior information. This paper focuses on a more natural way of incorporating the prior information in the level set framework. For proof of concept the method is applied on hippocampus segmentation in T1-MR images. Hippocampus segmentation is a very challenging task, due to the multivariate surrounding region and the missing boundary with the neighboring amygdala, whose intensities are identical. The proposed method, mimics the human segmentation way and thus shows enhancements in the segmentation accuracy.

Keywords: Medical imaging & processing, Brain MRI segmentation, hippocampus segmentation, hippocampus-amygdala missingboundary, weak boundary segmentation, region based segmentation, prior information, local weighting scheme in level sets, spatialdistribution of labels, gradient distribution on boundary.

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Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

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Environmental performance of the U.S. States is investigated for the period of 1990 – 2007 using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). The SFA accounts for both efficiency measure and stochastic noise affecting a frontier. The frontier is formed using indicators of GDP, energy consumption, population, and CO2 emissions. For comparability, all indicators are expressed as ratios to total. Statistical information of the Energy Information Agency of the United States is used. Obtained results reveal the bell - shaped dynamics of environmental efficiency scores. The average efficiency scores rise from 97.6% in 1990 to 99.6% in 1999, and then fall to 98.4% in 2007. The main factor is insufficient decrease in the rate of growth of CO2 emissions with regards to the growth of GDP, population and energy consumption. Data for 2008 following the research period allow for an assumption that the environmental performance of the U.S. States has improved in the last years.

Keywords: Stochastic frontier analysis, environmental performance, interstate comparisons.

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: Decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques.

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Authors: Jianwei Wu

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Based on the one-bit-matching principle and by turning the de-mixing matrix into an orthogonal matrix via certain normalization, Ma et al proposed a one-bit-matching learning algorithm on the Stiefel manifold for independent component analysis [8]. But this algorithm is not adaptive. In this paper, an algorithm which can extract kurtosis and its sign of each independent source component directly from observation data is firstly introduced.With the algorithm , the one-bit-matching learning algorithm is revised, so that it can make the blind separation on the Stiefel manifold implemented completely in the adaptive mode in the framework of natural gradient.

Keywords: Independent component analysis, kurtosis, Stiefel manifold, super-gaussians or sub-gaussians.

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Authors: S. Balaji, M. Rajaram

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The method of introducing the proxy interpretation for sending and receiving requests increase the capability of the server and our approach UDIV (User-Data Identity Security) to solve the data and user authentication without extending size of the data makes better than hybrid IDS (Intrusion Detection System). And at the same time all the security stages we have framed have to pass through less through that minimize the response time of the request. Even though an anomaly detected, before rejecting it the proxy extracts its identity to prevent it to enter into system. In case of false anomalies, the request will be reshaped and transformed into legitimate request for further response. Finally we are holding the normal and abnormal requests in two different queues with own priorities.

Keywords: IDS, Data & User authentication, UDIS.

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Authors: Amandeep Kaur, Satwinder Singh, Dr. K. S. Kahlon

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The impact of OO design on software quality characteristics such as defect density and rework by mean of experimental validation. Encapsulation, inheritance, polymorphism, reusability, Data hiding and message-passing are the major attribute of an Object Oriented system. In order to evaluate the quality of an Object oriented system the above said attributes can act as indicators. The metrics are the well known quantifiable approach to express any attribute. Hence, in this paper we tried to formulate a framework of metrics representing the attributes of object oriented system. Empirical Data is collected from three different projects based on object oriented paradigms to calculate the metrics.

Keywords: Object Oriented, Software metrics, Methods, Attributes, cohesion, coupling, Inheritance.

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Authors: Nagi Mekhiel

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Many applications use vector operations by applying single instruction to multiple data that map to different locations in conventional memory. Transferring data from memory is limited by access latency and bandwidth affecting the performance gain of vector processing. We present a memory system that makes all of its content available to processors in time so that processors need not to access the memory, we force each location to be available to all processors at a specific time. The data move in different orbits to become available to other processors in higher orbits at different time. We use this memory to apply parallel vector operations to data streams at first orbit level. Data processed in the first level move to upper orbit one data element at a time, allowing a processor in that orbit to apply another vector operation to deal with serial code limitations inherited in all parallel applications and interleaved it with lower level vector operations.

Keywords: Memory organization, parallel processors, serial code, vector processing.

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Authors: S. Masteika, A.V. Rutkauskas, A. Tamosaitis

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The paper investigates downtrend algorithm and trading strategy based on chart pattern recognition and technical analysis in futures market. The proposed chart formation is a pattern with the lowest low in the middle and one higher low on each side. The contribution of this paper lies in the reinforcement of statements about the profitability of momentum trend trading strategies. Practical benefit of the research is a trading algorithm in falling markets and back-test analysis in futures markets. When based on daily data, the algorithm has generated positive results, especially when the market had downtrend period. Downtrend algorithm can be applied as a hedge strategy against possible sudden market crashes. The proposed strategy can be interesting for futures traders, hedge funds or scientific researchers performing technical or algorithmic market analysis based on momentum trend trading.

Keywords: trading algorithm, chart pattern, downtrend trading, futures market, hedging

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Authors: Jerzy Nogiec, Kelley Trombly-Freytag, Shangping Ren

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The promises of component-based technology can only be fully realized when the system contains in its design a necessary level of separation of concerns. The authors propose to focus on the concerns that emerge throughout the life cycle of the system and use them as an architectural foundation for the design of a component-based framework. The proposed model comprises a set of superimposed views of the system describing its functional and non-functional concerns. This approach is illustrated by the design of a specific framework for data analysis and data acquisition and supplemented with experiences from using the systems developed with this framework at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory.

Keywords: Distributed system, component-based technology, separation of concerns, software development, supervisory and control, QoS

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Authors: J. McCullagh, T. Whitfort

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Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been used successfully in many scientific, industrial and business domains as a method for extracting knowledge from vast amounts of data. However the use of ANN techniques in the sporting domain has been limited. In professional sport, data is stored on many aspects of teams, games, training and players. Sporting organisations have begun to realise that there is a wealth of untapped knowledge contained in the data and there is great interest in techniques to utilise this data. This study will use player data from the elite Australian Football League (AFL) competition to train and test ANNs with the aim to predict the onset of injuries. The results demonstrate that an accuracy of 82.9% was achieved by the ANNs’ predictions across all examples with 94.5% of all injuries correctly predicted. These initial findings suggest that ANNs may have the potential to assist sporting clubs in the prediction of injuries.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, data, injuries, sport

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Authors: Alireza Fereidooni, Kamran Behdinan, Zouheir Fawaz

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The integral form of equations of motion of composite beams subjected to varying time loads are discretized using a developed finite element model. The model consists of a straight five node twenty-two degrees of freedom beam element. The stability analysis of the beams is studied by solving the matrix form characteristic equations of the system. The principle of virtual work and the first order shear deformation theory are employed to analyze the beams with large deformation and small strains. The regions of dynamic instability of the beam are determined by solving the obtained Mathieu form of differential equations. The effects of nonconservative loads, shear stiffness, and damping parameters on stability and response of the beams are examined. Several numerical calculations are presented to compare the results with data reported by other researchers.

Keywords: Finite element beam model, Composite Beams, stability analysis

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Authors: H. Bouhamed, A. Rebai, T. Lecroq, M. Jaoua

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The objective of our work is to develop a new approach for discovering knowledge from a large mass of data, the result of applying this approach will be an expert system that will serve as diagnostic tools of a phenomenon related to a huge information system. We first recall the general problem of learning Bayesian network structure from data and suggest a solution for optimizing the complexity by using organizational and optimization methods of data. Afterward we proposed a new heuristic of learning a Multi-Entities Bayesian Networks structures. We have applied our approach to biological facts concerning hereditary complex illnesses where the literatures in biology identify the responsible variables for those diseases. Finally we conclude on the limits arched by this work.

Keywords: Data-organization, data-optimization, automatic knowledge discovery, Multi-Entities Bayesian networks, score merging.

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Authors: Dhinu Johnson, Gurdip Singh

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Sensor network applications are often data centric and involve collecting data from a set of sensor nodes to be delivered to various consumers. Typically, nodes in a sensor network are resource-constrained, and hence the algorithms operating in these networks must be efficient. There may be several algorithms available implementing the same service, and efficient considerations may require a sensor application to choose the best suited algorithm. In this paper, we present a systematic evaluation of a set of algorithms implementing the data gathering service. We propose a modular infrastructure for implementing such algorithms in TOSSIM with separate configurable modules for various tasks such as interest propagation, data propagation, aggregation, and path maintenance. By appropriately configuring these modules, we propose a number of data gathering algorithms, each of which incorporates a different set of heuristics for optimizing performance. We have performed comprehensive experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of these heuristics, and we present results from our experimentation efforts.

Keywords: Data Centric Protocols, Shortest Paths, Sensor networks, Message passing systems.

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Authors: A.M. Fahim, A. M. Salem, F. A. Torkey, M. A. Ramadan

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Clustering algorithms are attractive for the task of class identification in spatial databases. However, the application to large spatial databases rises the following requirements for clustering algorithms: minimal requirements of domain knowledge to determine the input parameters, discovery of clusters with arbitrary shape and good efficiency on large databases. The well-known clustering algorithms offer no solution to the combination of these requirements. In this paper, a density based clustering algorithm (DCBRD) is presented, relying on a knowledge acquired from the data by dividing the data space into overlapped regions. The proposed algorithm discovers arbitrary shaped clusters, requires no input parameters and uses the same definitions of DBSCAN algorithm. We performed an experimental evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of it, and compared this results with that of DBSCAN. The results of our experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is significantly efficient in discovering clusters of arbitrary shape and size.

Keywords: Clustering Algorithms, Arbitrary Shape of clusters, cluster Analysis.

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Authors: Isao Taguchi, Yasuo Sugai

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This paper proposes an efficient learning method for the layered neural networks based on the selection of training data and input characteristics of an output layer unit. Comparing to recent neural networks; pulse neural networks, quantum neuro computation, etc, the multilayer network is widely used due to its simple structure. When learning objects are complicated, the problems, such as unsuccessful learning or a significant time required in learning, remain unsolved. Focusing on the input data during the learning stage, we undertook an experiment to identify the data that makes large errors and interferes with the learning process. Our method devides the learning process into several stages. In general, input characteristics to an output layer unit show oscillation during learning process for complicated problems. The multi-stage learning method proposes by the authors for the function approximation problems of classifying learning data in a phased manner, focusing on their learnabilities prior to learning in the multi layered neural network, and demonstrates validity of the multi-stage learning method. Specifically, this paper verifies by computer experiments that both of learning accuracy and learning time are improved of the BP method as a learning rule of the multi-stage learning method. In learning, oscillatory phenomena of a learning curve serve an important role in learning performance. The authors also discuss the occurrence mechanisms of oscillatory phenomena in learning. Furthermore, the authors discuss the reasons that errors of some data remain large value even after learning, observing behaviors during learning.

Keywords: data selection, function approximation problem, multistage leaning, neural network, voluntary oscillation.

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Authors: Shams-Ul-Islam, Waqas Sarwar Abbasi, Hamid Rahman

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Numerical investigation of flow around a square cylinder are presented using the multi-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann methods at different Reynolds numbers. A detail analysis are given in terms of time-trace analysis of drag and lift coefficients, power spectra analysis of lift coefficient, vorticity contours visualizations, streamlines and phase diagrams. A number of physical quantities mean drag coefficient, drag coefficient, Strouhal number and root-mean-square values of drag and lift coefficients are calculated and compared with the well resolved experimental data and numerical results available in open literature. The Reynolds numbers affected the physical quantities.

Keywords: Code validation, Force statistics, Multi-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann method, Reynolds numbers, Square cylinder.

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Authors: U. Kairov, T. Karpenyuk, E. Ramanculov, A. Zinovyev

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The most common result of analysis of highthroughput data in molecular biology represents a global list of genes, ranked accordingly to a certain score. The score can be a measure of differential expression. Recent work proposed a new method for selecting a number of genes in a ranked gene list from microarray gene expression data such that this set forms the Optimally Functionally Enriched Network (OFTEN), formed by known physical interactions between genes or their products. Here we present calculation results of relative connectivity of genes from META-OFTEN network and tentative biological interpretation of the most reproducible signal. The relative connectivity and inbetweenness values of genes from META-OFTEN network were estimated.

Keywords: Microarray, META-OFTEN, gene network.

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Authors: Kamal Ali Albashiri, Khaled Ahmed Kadouh

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A generic and extendible Multi-Agent Data Mining (MADM) framework, MADMF (the Multi-Agent Data Mining Framework) is described. The central feature of the framework is that it avoids the use of agreed meta-language formats by supporting a framework of wrappers. The advantage offered is that the framework is easily extendible, so that further data agents and mining agents can simply be added to the framework. A demonstration MADMF framework is currently available. The paper includes details of the MADMF architecture and the wrapper principle incorporated into it. A full description and evaluation of the framework-s operation is provided by considering two MADM scenarios.

Keywords: Multi-Agent Data Mining (MADM), Frequent Itemsets, Meta ARM, Association Rule Mining, Classifier generator.

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Authors: Zdenek Kolka, Otakar Wilfert, Viera Biolkova

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The paper deals with an analysis of visibility records collected from 210 European airports to obtain a realistic estimation of the availability of Free Space Optical (FSO) data links. Commercially available optical links usually operate in the 850nm waveband. Thus the influence of the atmosphere on the optical beam and on the visible light is similar. Long-term visibility records represent an invaluable source of data for the estimation of the quality of service of FSO links. The model used characterizes both the statistical properties of fade depths and the statistical properties of individual fade durations. Results are presented for Italy, France, and Germany.

Keywords: Computer networks, free-space optical links, meteorology, quality of service.

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Authors: Heeyeul Kwon, Yongtae Park

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Despite the highly touted benefits, emerging technologies have unleashed pervasive concerns regarding unintended and unforeseen social impacts. Thus, those wishing to create safe and socially acceptable products need to identify such side effects and mitigate them prior to the market proliferation. Various methodologies in the field of technology assessment (TA), namely Delphi, impact assessment, and scenario planning, have been widely incorporated in such a circumstance. However, literatures face a major limitation in terms of sole reliance on participatory workshop activities. They unfortunately missed out the availability of a massive untapped data source of futuristic information flooding through the Internet. This research thus seeks to gain insights into utilization of futuristic data, future-oriented documents from the Internet, as a supplementary method to generate social impact scenarios whilst capturing perspectives of experts from a wide variety of disciplines. To this end, network analysis is conducted based on the social keywords extracted from the futuristic documents by text mining, which is then used as a guide to produce a comprehensive set of detailed scenarios. Our proposed approach facilitates harmonized depictions of possible hazardous consequences of emerging technologies and thereby makes decision makers more aware of, and responsive to, broad qualitative uncertainties.

Keywords: Emerging technologies, futuristic data, scenario, text mining.

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Authors: J. Bouchard, B. Prosperi, G. Bavre, M. Daudé, E. Jeandupeux

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Young patients suffering from Cerebral Palsy are facing difficult choices concerning heavy surgeries. Diagnosis settled by surgeons can be complex and on the other hand decision for patient about getting or not such a surgery involves important reflection effort. Proposed software combining prediction for surgeries and post surgery kinematic values, and from 3D model representing the patient is an innovative tool helpful for both patients and medicine professionals. Beginning with analysis and classification of kinematics values from Data Base extracted from gait analysis in 3 separated clusters, it is possible to determine close similarity between patients. Prediction surgery best adapted to improve a patient gait is then determined by operating a suitable preconditioned neural network. Finally, patient 3D modeling based on kinematic values analysis, is animated thanks to post surgery kinematic vectors characterizing the closest patient selected from patients clustering.

Keywords: Cerebral Palsy, Clustering, Crouch Gait, 3-D Modeling.

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

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This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: Asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index.

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Authors: Nevena Stolba, A Min Tjoa

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Evidence-based medicine is a new direction in modern healthcare. Its task is to prevent, diagnose and medicate diseases using medical evidence. Medical data about a large patient population is analyzed to perform healthcare management and medical research. In order to obtain the best evidence for a given disease, external clinical expertise as well as internal clinical experience must be available to the healthcare practitioners at right time and in the right manner. External evidence-based knowledge can not be applied directly to the patient without adjusting it to the patient-s health condition. We propose a data warehouse based approach as a suitable solution for the integration of external evidence-based data sources into the existing clinical information system and data mining techniques for finding appropriate therapy for a given patient and a given disease. Through integration of data warehousing, OLAP and data mining techniques in the healthcare area, an easy to use decision support platform, which supports decision making process of care givers and clinical managers, is built. We present three case studies, which show, that a clinical data warehouse that facilitates evidence-based medicine is a reliable, powerful and user-friendly platform for strategic decision making, which has a great relevance for the practice and acceptance of evidence-based medicine.

Keywords: data mining, data warehousing, decision-support systems, evidence-based medicine.

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Authors: Chaw Su Mon

Abstract:

Abstract— The paper presents a preliminary study on modeling and estimation of basic wind speed ( extreme wind gusts ) for the consideration of vulnerability and design of building in Ayeyarwady Region. The establishment of appropriate design wind speeds is a critical step towards the calculation of design wind loads for structures. In this paper the extreme value analysis of this prediction work is based on the anemometer data (1970-2009) maintained by the department of meteorology and hydrology of Pathein. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are used to derive formulas for estimating 3-second gusts from recorded data (10-minute sustained mean wind speeds).

Keywords: Basic Wind Speed, Building, Gusts, Statistical and probabilistic approaches

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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