Search results for: Bottom-up testing approach

Authors: Hui-Yu Huang, Shih-Hsu Chang

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a high capacity image hiding technology based on pixel prediction and the difference of modified histogram. This approach is used the pixel prediction and the difference of modified histogram to calculate the best embedding point. This approach can improve the predictive accuracy and increase the pixel difference to advance the hiding capacity. We also use the histogram modification to prevent the overflow and underflow. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method within the same average hiding capacity can still keep high quality of image and low distortion

Keywords: data hiding, predictor

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Authors: G. S. Dangayach

Abstract:

For any country the project management has been a vital part for its development. The highly competitive business world has created tremendous pressure on the project managers to achieve success. The pressure is derived from survival and profit building in business organizations which compels the project managers to pursue unethical practices. As a result unethical activities in business projects can be found easily where situations or issues arise due to dubious business practice, high corruption, or absolute violation of the law. The recent spur on Commonwealth games to be organized in New Delhi indicates towards the same. It has been seen that the project managers mainly focus on cost, time, and quality rather than social impact and long term effects of the project. Surprisingly the literature as well as the practitioner-s perspective also does not identify the role of ethics in project success. This paper identifies ethics as the fourth most important dimension in the project based organizations. The paper predicts that the approach of considering ethics will result in sustainability of the project. It will increase satisfaction and loyalty of the customers as well as create harmony, trust, brotherhood, values and morality among the team members. This paper is conceptual in nature as inadequate literature exists linking the project success with an ethical approach.

Keywords: Ethics, Loyalty, Morality, Project success

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Authors: Raid R. O. Al-Nima, S. S. Dlay, W. L. Woo

Abstract:

A relationship between face and signature biometrics is established in this paper. A new approach is developed to predict faces from signatures by using artificial intelligence. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network is used to generate face details from features extracted from signatures, here face is the physical biometric and signatures is the behavioural biometric. The new method establishes a relationship between the two biometrics and regenerates a visible face image from the signature features. Furthermore, the performance efficiencies of our new technique are demonstrated in terms of minimum error rates compared to published work.

Keywords: Behavioural biometric, Face biometric, Neural network, Physical biometric, Signature biometric.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents an interval-based multi-attribute decision making (MADM) approach in support of the decision process with imprecise information. The proposed decision methodology is based on the model of linear additive utility function but extends the problem formulation with the measure of composite utility variance. A sample study concerning with the evaluation of electric generation expansion strategies is provided showing how the imprecise data may affect the choice toward the best solution and how a set of alternatives, acceptable to the decision maker (DM), may be identified with certain confidence.

Keywords: Decision Making, Power Generation, ElectricUtilities, Resource Planning.

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Authors: Prof. Chokri SLIM

Abstract:

A Novel fuzzy neural network combining with support vector learning mechanism called support-vector-based fuzzy neural networks (SVBFNN) is proposed. The SVBFNN combine the capability of minimizing the empirical risk (training error) and expected risk (testing error) of support vector learning in high dimensional data spaces and the efficient human-like reasoning of FNN.

Keywords: Neural network, fuzzy inference, machine learning, fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, support vector regression.

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Authors: Christian Meinecke, Bernd Scholz-Reiter

Abstract:

The integrated problem of production and distribution scheduling is relevant in many industrial applications. Thus, many heuristics to solve this integrated problem have been developed in the last decade. Most of these heuristics use a sequential working principal or a single decomposition and integration approach to separate and solve subproblems. A heuristic using a multi step decomposition and integration approach is presented in this paper and evaluated in a case study. The result show significant improved results compared with sequential scheduling heuristics.

Keywords: Production and outbound distribution, integrated planning, heuristic, decomposition and integration.

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Authors: I. Kurashvili, G. Darsavelidze, G. Bokuchava, A. Sichinava, I. Tabatadze

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The impact of boron doping on the internal friction (IF) and shear modulus temperature spectra of Si_1-xGe_x(x≤0,02) monocrsytals has been investigated by reverse torsional pendulum oscillations characteristics testing. At room temperatures, microhardness and indentation modulus of the same specimens have been measured by dynamic ultra microhardness tester. It is shown that boron doping causes two kinds effect: At low boron concentration (~10¹⁵ cm^-3) significant strengthening is revealed, while at the high boron concentration (~10¹⁹ cm^-3) strengthening effect and activation characteristics of relaxation origin IF processes are reduced.

Keywords: Dislocation, internal friction, microhardness, relaxation.

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Authors: Juan L. Castro, Maria I. NavarroVictor Lopez, Eduardo M. Eisman, Jose M. Zurita

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This paper describes the Multilingual Virtual Simulated Patient framework. It has been created to train the social skills and testing the knowledge of primary health care medical students. The framework generates conversational agents which perform in serveral languages as virtual simulated patients that help to improve the communication and diagnosis skills of the students complementing their training process.

Keywords: Medical training, conversational agents, patient modeling.

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Authors: Khaled Halimi, Hassina Seridi-Bouchelaghem

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to describe how learning analytics approaches based on social semantic web techniques can be applied to enhance the lifelong learning experiences in a connectivist perspective. For this reason, a prototype of a system called SoLearn (Social Learning Environment) that supports this approach. We observed and studied literature related to lifelong learning systems, social semantic web and ontologies, connectivism theory, learning analytics approaches and reviewed implemented systems based on these fields to extract and draw conclusions about necessary features for enhancing the lifelong learning process. The semantic analytics of learning can be used for viewing, studying and analysing the massive data generated by learners, which helps them to understand through recommendations, charts and figures their learning and behaviour, and to detect where they have weaknesses or limitations. This paper emphasises that implementing a learning analytics approach based on social semantic web representations can enhance the learning process. From one hand, the analysis process leverages the meaning expressed by semantics presented in the ontology (relationships between concepts). From the other hand, the analysis process exploits the discovery of new knowledge by means of inferring mechanism of the semantic web.

Keywords: Connectivism, data visualization, informal learning, learning analytics, semantic web, social web.

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Authors: Kyungroul Lee, Kwangjin Bae, Kangbin Yim

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This paper introduces a hardware solution to password exposure problem caused by direct accesses to the keyboard hardware interfaces through which a possible attacker is able to grab user-s password even where existing countermeasures are deployed. Several researches have proposed reasonable software based solutions to the problem for years. However, recently introduced hardware vulnerability problems have neutralized the software approaches and yet proposed any effective software solution to the vulnerability. Hardware approach in this paper is expected as the only solution to the vulnerability

Keywords: Keyboard sniff, password exposure, hardware vulnerability, privacy problem, insider security.

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Authors: Yujie Zhang

Abstract:

There are debates around the legitimacy of capital punishment, i.e., whether death could serve as a proper execution in our legal system or not. Different arguments have been raised. However, none of them seem able to provide a determined answer to the issue; this results in a lack of instruction in the legal practice. This article, therefore, devotes itself to the effort to find such an answer. It takes the perspective of rights, through interpreting the concept of right to life, which capital punishment appears to be in confliction with in the two traditional approaches, to reveal a possibly best account of the right and its conclusion on capital punishment. However, this effort is not a normative one which focuses on what ought to be. It means the article does not try to work out which argument we should choose and solve the hot debate on whether capital punishment should be allowed or not. It, again, does not propose which perspective we should take to approach this issue or generally which account of right must be better; rather, it is more a thought experiment. It attempts to raise a new perspective to approach the issue of the legitimacy of capital punishment. Both its perspective and conclusion therefore are tentative: what if we view this issue in a way we have never tried before, for example the different accounts of right to life? In this sense, the perspective could be defied, while the conclusion could be rejected. Other perspectives and conclusions are also possible. Notwithstanding, this tentative perspective and account of the right still could not be denied from serving as a potential approach, since it does have the ability to provide us with a determined attitude toward capital punishment that is hard to achieve through existing arguments.

Keywords: Capital punishment, right to life, theories of rights, the choice theory.

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Authors: Yi Feng, Jingwen Li, Lei Huang, Changping Liu

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In this paper we proposed a novel method to acquire the ROI (Region of interest) of unsupervised and touch-less palmprint captured from a web camera in real-time. We use Viola-Jones approach and skin model to get the target area in real time. Then an innovative course-to-fine approach to detect the key points on the hand is described. A new algorithm is used to find the candidate key points coarsely and quickly. In finely stage, we verify the hand key points with the shape context descriptor. To make the user much comfortable, it can process the hand image with different poses, even the hand is closed. Experiments show promising result by using the proposed method in various conditions.

Keywords: Palmprint recoginition, hand detection, touch-lesspalmprint, ROI localization.

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Authors: Larisa N. Pop, Irina M. Ban

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This paper aims to present the main instruments used in the economic literature for measuring the price risk, pointing out on the advantages brought by the conditional variance in this respect. The theoretical approach will be exemplified by elaborating an EGARCH model for the price returns of wheat, both on Romanian and on international market. To our knowledge, no previous empirical research, either on price risk measurement for the Romanian markets or studies that use the ARIMA-EGARCH methodology, have been conducted. After estimating the corresponding models, the paper will compare the estimated conditional variance on the two markets.

Keywords: conditional variance, GARCH models, price risk, volatility

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Authors: Loke Mun Sei

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Software testing has become a mandatory process in assuring the software product quality. Hence, test management is needed in order to manage the test activities conducted in the software test life cycle. This paper discusses on the challenges faced in the software test life cycle, and how the test processes and test activities, mainly on test cases creation, test execution, and test reporting is being managed and automated using several test automation tools, i.e. Jira, Robot Framework, and Jenkins.

Keywords: Test automation tools, test case, test execution, test reporting.

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Authors: Jorge Rodriguez-Guerra, Carlos Calleja, Aron Pujana, Iker Elorza, Ana Maria Macarulla

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Society demands more reliable manufacturing processes capable of producing high quality products in shorter production cycles. New control algorithms have been studied to satisfy this paradigm, in which Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) plays a significant role. It is suitable to detect, isolate and adapt a system when a harmful or faulty situation appears. In this paper, a general overview about FTC characteristics are exposed; highlighting the properties a system must ensure to be considered faultless. In addition, a research to identify which are the main FTC techniques and a classification based on their characteristics is presented in two main groups: Active Fault-Tolerant Controllers (AFTCs) and Passive Fault-Tolerant Controllers (PFTCs). AFTC encompasses the techniques capable of re-configuring the process control algorithm after the fault has been detected, while PFTC comprehends the algorithms robust enough to bypass the fault without further modifications. The mentioned re-configuration requires two stages, one focused on detection, isolation and identification of the fault source and the other one in charge of re-designing the control algorithm by two approaches: fault accommodation and control re-design. From the algorithms studied, one has been selected and applied to a case study based on an industrial hydraulic-press. The developed model has been embedded under a real-time validation platform, which allows testing the FTC algorithms and analyse how the system will respond when a fault arises in similar conditions as a machine will have on factory. One AFTC approach has been picked up as the methodology the system will follow in the fault recovery process. In a first instance, the fault will be detected, isolated and identified by means of a neural network. In a second instance, the control algorithm will be re-configured to overcome the fault and continue working without human interaction.

Keywords: Fault-tolerant control, electro-hydraulic actuator, fault detection and isolation, control re-design, real-time.

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Authors: Benhamouda Sara, Guezouli Larbi

Abstract:

Nowadays, the dissemination of information touches the distributed world, where selecting the relevant servers to a user request is an important problem in distributed information retrieval. During the last decade, several research studies on this issue have been launched to find optimal solutions and many approaches of collection selection have been proposed. In this paper, we propose a new collection selection approach that takes into consideration the number of documents in a collection that contains terms of the query and the weights of those terms in these documents. We tested our method and our studies show that this technique can compete with other state-of-the-art algorithms that we choose to test the performance of our approach.

Keywords: Distributed information retrieval, relevance, server selection, collection selection.

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Authors: Igbakura I. Luga, Alex A. Adikwu

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A comparison of resistance to quinolones was carried out on isolates of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coliO157:H7 from cattle and mecA and nuc genes harbouring Staphylococcus aureus from pigs. The isolates were separately tested in the first and current decades of the 21^st century. The objective was to demonstrate the dissemination of resistance to this frontline class of antibiotic by bacteria from food animals and bring to the limelight the spread of antibiotic resistance in Nigeria. A total of 10 isolates of the E. coli O157:H7 and 9 of mecA and nuc genes harbouring S. aureus were obtained following isolation, biochemical testing, and serological identification using the Remel Wellcolex E. coli O157:H7 test. Shiga toxin-production screening in the E. coli O157:H7 using the verotoxin E. coli reverse passive latex agglutination (VTEC-RPLA) test; and molecular identification of the mecA and nuc genes in S. aureus. Detection of the mecA and nuc genes were carried out using the protocol by the Danish Technical University (DTU) using the following primers mecA-1:5'-GGGATCATAGCGTCATTATTC-3', mecA-2: 5'-AACGATTGTGACACGATAGCC-3', nuc-1: 5'-TCAGCAAATGCATCACAAACAG-3', nuc-2: 5'-CGTAAATGCACTTGCTTCAGG-3' for the mecA and nuc genes, respectively. The nuc genes confirm the S. aureus isolates and the mecA genes as being methicillin-resistant and so pathogenic to man. The fluoroquinolones used in the antibiotic resistance testing were norfloxacin (10 µg) and ciprofloxacin (5 µg) in the E. coli O157:H7 isolates and ciprofloxacin (5 µg) in the S. aureus isolates. Susceptibility was tested using the disk diffusion method on Muller-Hinton agar. Fluoroquinolone resistance was not detected from isolates of E. coli O157:H7 from cattle. However, 44% (4/9) of the S. aureus were resistant to ciprofloxacin. Resistance of up to 44% in isolates of mecA and nuc genes harbouring S. aureus is a compelling evidence for the rapid spread of antibiotic resistance from bacteria in food animals from Nigeria. Ciprofloxacin is the drug of choice for the treatment of Typhoid fever, therefore widespread resistance to it in pathogenic bacteria is of great public health significance. The study concludes that antibiotic resistance in bacteria from food animals is on the increase in Nigeria. The National Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) agency in Nigeria should implement the World Health Organization (WHO) global action plan on antimicrobial resistance. A good starting point can be coordinating the WHO, Office of International Epizootics (OIE), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) tripartite draft antimicrobial resistance monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework in Nigeria.

Keywords: Fluoroquinolone, Nigeria, resistance, Staphylococcus aureus.

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Authors: Erhan Turgut, Salih Ergün, Abdülkadir Öz

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Terror is a modern war strategy which uses violence as a means of communication in order to achieve political objectives. In today’s security environment narrowing the propaganda field of terrorist organization is the primary goal for the security forces. In this sense, providing and maintaining public support is the most necessary ability for security units. Rather than enemy and threat-oriented approach, homeland security oriented approach is essential to ensure public support. In this study, terror assumed as a homeland security issue and assigning the law enforcement forces with military status is analyzed.

Keywords: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Military Status Law-enforcement.

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Authors: K. N. Penna, E. J. Hoffman, T. R. Carter

Abstract:

This paper suggests that cultural landscape management plans in an Indigenous context are more effective if designed by taking into consideration context-related social and cultural aspects, adopting people-centred and cultural-based approaches for instance. In relation to working in Indigenous and mining contexts, we draw upon and contribute to international policies on human rights that promote the development of management plans that are co-designed through genuine engagement processes. We suggest that the production of management plans that are built upon culturally relevant frameworks leads to more inclusive economic development, a greater sense of trust, and shared managerial responsibilities. In this paper, three issues related to Indigenous engagement and cultural landscape management plans will be addressed: (1) the need for effective communication channels between proponents and Traditional Owners (Australian original Aboriginal peoples who inhabited specific regions), (2) the use of a culturally sensitive approach to engage local representatives in the decision-making processes, and (3) how design of new management plans can help in establishing shared management.

Keywords: Culture-Centred Approach, Holons’ Hierarchy, Inclusive Economic Development, Indigenous Engagement.

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Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng

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Leather industry is the most important traditional industry to provide the leather products in the world for thousand years. The fierce global competitive environment and common awareness of global carbon reduction make livestock supply quantities falling, salt and wet blue leather material reduces and the price skyrockets significantly. Exchange rate fluctuation led sales revenue decreasing which due to the differences of export exchanges and compresses the overall profitability of leather industry. This paper applies activity-based benefit assessment approach to build up fitness fur input mixed model, fur is Wet Blue, which concerned with four key factors: the output rate of wet blue, unit cost of wet blue, yield rate and grade level of Wet Blue to achieve the low cost strategy under given unit price of leather product condition of the company. The research findings indicate that applying this model may improve the input cost structure, decrease numbers of leather product inventories and to raise the competitive advantages of the enterprise in the future.

Keywords: Activity-Based Benefit Assessment Approach, Input mixed, Output Rate, Wet Blue.

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Authors: N. J. Imu, N. Rabbani, Md E. Hossain

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Achieving national climate goals requires transforming the energy system and increasing the use of renewable energy in Bangladesh as renewable energy offers an environmentally friendly energy supply. In view of this, Bangladesh has set a goal of 100% renewable power generation by 2050. Among all the renewable energy, solar is the most effective and popular source of renewable energy in Bangladesh. In order to build up on-grid and off-grid solar systems to increase energy transformation, monocrystalline type (highly efficient) solar module, and the polycrystalline type (low-efficient) solar module are commonly used. Due to their low price and availability, polycrystalline-type solar modules dominated the local market in the past years. However, in recent times the use of monocrystalline types modules has increased considerably owing to the significant decrease in price difference that existed between these two modules. Despite the deployment of both mono- and poly-crystalline modules in the market, the proliferation of low-quality solar panels are dominating the market resulting in reduced generation of solar electricity than expected. This situation is further aggravated by insufficient information regarding the effect of solar irradiation on solar module performance in relation to the quality of the materials used for the production of the module. This research aims to evaluate the efficiency of monocrystalline and polycrystalline solar modules that are available in Bangladesh by considering seasonal variations. Both types of solar modules have been tested for three different capacities 45W, 60W, and 100W in Dhaka regions to evaluate their power generation capability under Standard Test Conditions (STC). Module testing data were recorded twelve months in a full year from January to December. Data for solar irradiation were collected using HT304N while HT I-V400 multifunction instrument was used for testing voltage and current of photovoltaic (PV) systems and complete power quality analyzer. Results obtained in this study indicated differences between the efficiencies of polycrystalline and monocrystalline solar modules under the country’s solar irradiation. The average efficiencies of 45W, 60W, and 100W monocrystalline solar panels were recorded as 11.73%, 13.41%, and 15.37% respectively while for polycrystalline panels were 8.66%, 9.37%, and 12.34%. Monocrystalline solar panels, which offer greater working output than polycrystalline ones, are also represented by the Pearson Correlation value. The output of polycrystalline solar panels fluctuated highly with the changes in irradiation and temperature whereas monocrystalline panels were much stable.

Keywords: Solar energy, solar irradiation, efficiency, polycrystalline solar module, monocrystalline solar module, SPSS analysis.

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Authors: Joseph C. Chen

Abstract:

Machine vision system provides automatic inspection to reduce manufacturing costs considerably. However, only a few principles have been found to optimize machine vision system and help it function more accurately in industrial practice. Mostly, there were complicated and impractical design techniques to improve the accuracy of machine vision system. This paper discusses implementing the Six Sigma Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control (DMAIC) approach to optimize the setup parameters of machine vision system when it is used as a direct measurement technique. This research follows a case study showing how Six Sigma DMAIC methodology has been put into use.

Keywords: DMAIC, machine vision system, process capability, Taguchi parameter design.

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Authors: E. Asadollahi-Yazdi, J. Gardan, P. Lafon

Abstract:

Nowadays, manufactures are encountered with production of different version of products due to quality, cost and time constraints. On the other hand, Additive Manufacturing (AM) as a production method based on CAD model disrupts the design and manufacturing cycle with new parameters. To consider these issues, the researchers utilized Design For Manufacturing (DFM) approach for AM but until now there is no integrated approach for design and manufacturing of product through the AM. So, this paper aims to provide a general methodology for managing the different production issues, as well as, support the interoperability with AM process and different Product Life Cycle Management tools. The problem is that the models of System Engineering which is used for managing complex systems cannot support the product evolution and its impact on the product life cycle. Therefore, it seems necessary to provide a general methodology for managing the product’s diversities which is created by using AM. This methodology must consider manufacture and assembly during product design as early as possible in the design stage. The latest approach of DFM, as a methodology to analyze the system comprehensively, integrates manufacturing constraints in the numerical model in upstream. So, DFM for AM is used to import the characteristics of AM into the design and manufacturing process of a hybrid product to manage the criteria coming from AM. Also, the research presents an integrated design method in order to take into account the knowledge of layers manufacturing technologies. For this purpose, the interface model based on the skin and skeleton concepts is provided, the usage and manufacturing skins are used to show the functional surface of the product. Also, the material flow and link between the skins are demonstrated by usage and manufacturing skeletons. Therefore, this integrated approach is a helpful methodology for designer and manufacturer in different decisions like material and process selection as well as, evaluation of product manufacturability.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, 3D printing, design for manufacturing, integrated design, interoperability.

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Authors: Akram A. Mustafa

Abstract:

In this paper an approaches for increasing the effectiveness of error detection in computer network channels with Pulse-Amplitude Modulation (PAM) has been proposed. Proposed approaches are based on consideration of special feature of errors, which are appearances in line with PAM. The first approach consists of CRC modification specifically for line with PAM. The second approach is base of weighted checksums using. The way for checksum components coding has been developed. It has been shown that proposed checksum modification ensure superior digital data control transformation reliability for channels with PAM in compare to CRC.

Keywords: Pulse-Amplitude Modulation, checksum, transmission, discrete.

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Authors: S. Woothipatanapan, S. Prakobkit

Abstract:

This paper presents a model for analysis the induced voltage of transmission lines (energized) acting on neighboring distribution lines (de-energized). From environmental restrictions, 22 kV distribution lines need to be installed under 115 kV transmission lines. With the installation of the two parallel circuits like this, they make the induced voltage which can cause harm to operators. This work was performed with the ATP-EMTP modeling to analyze such phenomenon before field testing. Simulation results are used to find solutions to prevent danger to operators who are on the pole.

Keywords: Transmission system, distribution system, induced voltage, off-line operation.

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Authors: M. Pourahmadi

Abstract:

The performance of time-reversal MUSIC algorithm will be dramatically degrades in presence of strong noise and multiple scattering (i.e. when scatterers are close to each other). This is due to error in determining the number of scatterers. The present paper provides a new approach to alleviate such a problem using an information theoretic criterion referred as minimum description length (MDL). The merits of the novel approach are confirmed by the numerical examples. The results indicate the time-reversal MUSIC yields accurate estimate of the target locations with considerable noise and multiple scattering in the received signals.

Keywords: Microwave imaging, Time reversal, MUSIC algorithm, Minimum Description Length (MDL).

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Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

Abstract:

This paper presents a method of economic factorial analysis of the CO₂ emissions based on the extension of the Divisia index to interconnected factors. This approach, contrary to the Kaya identity, considers three main factors of the CO₂ emissions: gross domestic product, energy consumption, and population - as equally important, and allows for accounting of all of them simultaneously. The three factors are included into analysis together with their carbon intensities that allows for obtaining a comprehensive picture of the change in the CO₂ emissions. A computer program in R-language that is available for free download serves automation of the calculations. A case study of the U.S. carbon dioxide emissions is used as an example. 

Keywords: CO2 emissions, Economic analysis, Factorial analysis, Divisia index, Interconnected factors.

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Authors: Safa Adi

Abstract:

This paper will consider the problem of sequential mining patterns embedded in a database by handling the time constraints as defined in the GSP algorithm (level wise algorithms). We will compare two previous approaches GTC and PSP, that resumes the general principles of GSP. Furthermore this paper will discuss PG-hybrid algorithm, that using PSP and GTC. The results show that PSP and GTC are more efficient than GSP. On the other hand, the GTC algorithm performs better than PSP. The PG-hybrid algorithm use PSP algorithm for the two first passes on the database, and GTC approach for the following scans. Experiments show that the hybrid approach is very efficient for short, frequent sequences.

Keywords: Database, GTC algorithm, PSP algorithm, sequential patterns, time constraints.

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Authors: G. Tanapornraweekit, W. Kulsirikasem

Abstract:

This paper presents the simulation of fragmentation warhead using a hydrocode, Autodyn. The goal of this research is to determine the lethal range of such a warhead. This study investigates the lethal range of warheads with and without steel balls as preformed fragments. The results from the FE simulation, i.e. initial velocities and ejected spray angles of fragments, are further processed using an analytical approach so as to determine a fragment hit density and probability of kill of a modelled warhead. In order to simulate a plenty of preformed fragments inside a warhead, the model requires expensive computation resources. Therefore, this study attempts to model the problem in an alternative approach by considering an equivalent mass of preformed fragments to the mass of warhead casing. This approach yields approximately 7% and 20% difference of fragment velocities from the analytical results for one and two layers of preformed fragments, respectively. The lethal ranges of the simulated warheads are 42.6 m and 56.5 m for warheads with one and two layers of preformed fragments, respectively, compared to 13.85 m for a warhead without preformed fragment. These lethal ranges are based on the requirement of fragment hit density. The lethal ranges which are based on the probability of kill are 27.5 m, 61 m and 70 m for warheads with no preformed fragment, one and two layers of preformed fragments, respectively.

Keywords: Lethal Range, Natural Fragment, Preformed Fragment, Warhead.

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

Abstract:

The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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