Search results for: Lévy method

Authors: Ryu Watanabe, Yutaka Miyake

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Reducing the risk of information leaks is one of the most important functions of identity management systems. To achieve this purpose, Dey et al. have already proposed an account management method for a federated login system using a blind signature scheme. In order to ensure account anonymity for the authentication provider, referred to as an IDP (identity provider), a blind signature scheme is utilized to generate an authentication token on an authentication service and the token is sent to an IDP. However, there is a problem with the proposed system. Malicious users can establish multiple accounts on an IDP by requesting such accounts. As a measure to solve this problem, in this paper, the authors propose an account checking method that is performed before account generation.

Keywords: identity management, blind signature, privacy protection

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Authors: Khaddouja Boujenfa, Nadia Essoussi, Mohamed Limam

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Multiple sequence alignment is a fundamental part in many bioinformatics applications such as phylogenetic analysis. Many alignment methods have been proposed. Each method gives a different result for the same data set, and consequently generates a different phylogenetic tree. Hence, the chosen alignment method affects the resulting tree. However in the literature, there is no evaluation of multiple alignment methods based on the comparison of their phylogenetic trees. This work evaluates the following eight aligners: ClustalX, T-Coffee, SAGA, MUSCLE, MAFFT, DIALIGN, ProbCons and Align-m, based on their phylogenetic trees (test trees) produced on a given data set. The Neighbor-Joining method is used to estimate trees. Three criteria, namely, the dNNI, the dRF and the Id_Tree are established to test the ability of different alignment methods to produce closer test tree compared to the reference one (true tree). Results show that the method which produces the most accurate alignment gives the nearest test tree to the reference tree. MUSCLE outperforms all aligners with respect to the three criteria and for all datasets, performing particularly better when sequence identities are within 10-20%. It is followed by T-Coffee at lower sequence identity (<10%), Align-m at 20-30% identity, and ClustalX and ProbCons at 30-50% identity. Also, it is noticed that when sequence identities are higher (>30%), trees scores of all methods become similar.

Keywords: Multiple alignment methods, phylogenetic trees, Neighbor-Joining method, Robinson-Foulds distance.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The decision to select an unmanned combat aircraft is complicated since several options and conflicting criteria must be considered at simultaneously. When making multiple criteria decision, it is important to consider the selected evaluation criteria, including priceability, payloadability, stealthability, speedability , and survivability. The fundamental goal of the study is to select the best unmanned combat aircraft by taking these evaluation criteria into account. The optimal aircraft was chosen using the fuzzy proximity measure method, which enables decision-makers to designate preferences as standard fuzzy set numbers during the multiple criteria decision-making process. To assess the applicability of the proposed approach, a numerical example is provided. Finally, by comparing determined unmanned combat aircraft, the proposed method produced a successful application, and the best aircraft was selected.

Keywords: standard fuzzy sets (SFS), unmanned combat aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM), proximity measure method (PMM)

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Authors: Desmond Adair, Kairat Ismailov, Martin Jaeger

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Modelling of Timoshenko beams on elastic foundations has been widely used in the analysis of buildings, geotechnical problems, and, railway and aerospace structures. For the elastic foundation, the most widely used models are one-parameter mechanical models or two-parameter models to include continuity and cohesion of typical foundations, with the two-parameter usually considered the better of the two. Knowledge of free vibration characteristics of beams on an elastic foundation is considered necessary for optimal design solutions in many engineering applications, and in this work, the efficient and accurate variational iteration method is developed and used to calculate natural frequencies of a Timoshenko beam on a two-parameter foundation. The variational iteration method is a technique capable of dealing with some linear and non-linear problems in an easy and efficient way. The calculations are compared with those using a finite-element method and other analytical solutions, and it is shown that the results are accurate and are obtained efficiently. It is found that the effect of the presence of the two-parameter foundation is to increase the beam’s natural frequencies and this is thought to be because of the shear-layer stiffness, which has an effect on the elastic stiffness. By setting the two-parameter model’s stiffness parameter to zero, it is possible to obtain a one-parameter foundation model, and so, comparison between the two foundation models is also made.

Keywords: Timoshenko beam, variational iteration method, two-parameter elastic foundation model.

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Authors: Nai-Chieh Wei, I-Ming Chao, Chin-Jung Liuand, Hong Long Chen

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This paper combines the branch-and-bound method and the petri net to solve the two-sided assembly line balancing problem, thus facilitating effective branching and pruning of tasks. By integrating features of the petri net, such as reachability graph and incidence matrix, the propose method can support the branch-and-bound to effectively reduce poor branches with systematic graphs. Test results suggest that using petri net in the branching process can effectively guide the system trigger process, and thus, lead to consistent results.

 

Keywords: Branch-and-Bound Method, Petri Net, Two-Sided Assembly Line Balancing Problem.

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Authors: Nadine Ali Hassan, Ngoc Son Nguyen, Didier Marot, Fateh Bendahmane

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This paper aims at presenting a study of the effect of scalping methods on the mechanical properties of coarse soils by resorting to numerical simulations based on the discrete element method (DEM) and experimental triaxial tests. Two reconstitution methods are used, designated as scalping method and substitution method. Triaxial compression tests are first simulated on a granular materials with a grap graded particle size distribution by using the DEM. We study the effect of these reconstitution methods on the stress-strain behavior of coarse soils with different fine contents and with different ways to control the densities of the scalped and substituted materials. Experimental triaxial tests are performed on original mixtures of sands and gravels with different fine contents and on their corresponding scalped and substituted samples. Numerical results are qualitatively compared to experimental ones. Agreements and discrepancies between these results are also discussed.

Keywords: Coarse soils, scalping, substitution, discrete element method, triaxial test.

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Authors: Süha Yılmaz, Melih Turgut

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In this paper, a method to calculate Frenet Apparatus of the curves in five dimensional Euclidean space is presented.

Keywords: Classical Differential Geometry, Euclidean-5 space, Frenet Apparatus.

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Authors: Chang-Uk Kwak, Sun-Joong Kim, Seong-Bae Park, Sang-Jo Lee

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This paper proposes a method of learning topics for broadcasting contents. There are two kinds of texts related to broadcasting contents. One is a broadcasting script, which is a series of texts including directions and dialogues. The other is blogposts, which possesses relatively abstracted contents, stories, and diverse information of broadcasting contents. Although two texts range over similar broadcasting contents, words in blogposts and broadcasting script are different. When unseen words appear, it needs a method to reflect to existing topic. In this paper, we introduce a semantic vocabulary expansion method to reflect unseen words. We expand topics of the broadcasting script by incorporating the words in blogposts. Each word in blogposts is added to the most semantically correlated topics. We use word2vec to get the semantic correlation between words in blogposts and topics of scripts. The vocabularies of topics are updated and then posterior inference is performed to rearrange the topics. In experiments, we verified that the proposed method can discover more salient topics for broadcasting contents.

Keywords: Broadcasting script analysis, topic expansion, semantic correlation analysis, word2vec.

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Authors: Peifei Zhu, Zisheng Li, Yasuki Kakishita, Mayumi Suzuki, Tomoaki Chono

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Segmentation of left ventricle (LV) from cardiac ultrasound images provides a quantitative functional analysis of the heart to diagnose disease. Active Shape Model (ASM) is widely used for LV segmentation, but it suffers from the drawback that initialization of the shape model is not sufficiently close to the target, especially when dealing with abnormal shapes in disease. In this work, a two-step framework is improved to achieve a fast and efficient LV segmentation. First, a robust and efficient detection based on Hough forest localizes cardiac feature points. Such feature points are used to predict the initial fitting of the LV shape model. Second, ASM is applied to further fit the LV shape model to the cardiac ultrasound image. With the robust initialization, ASM is able to achieve more accurate segmentation. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on a dataset of 810 cardiac ultrasound images that are mostly abnormal shapes. This proposed method is compared with several combinations of ASM and existing initialization methods. Our experiment results demonstrate that accuracy of the proposed method for feature point detection for initialization was 40% higher than the existing methods. Moreover, the proposed method significantly reduces the number of necessary ASM fitting loops and thus speeds up the whole segmentation process. Therefore, the proposed method is able to achieve more accurate and efficient segmentation results and is applicable to unusual shapes of heart with cardiac diseases, such as left atrial enlargement.

Keywords: Hough forest, active shape model, segmentation, cardiac left ventricle.

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.

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Authors: H. Yousefnia, S. Zolghadri, A. Golabi Dezfuli

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Abstract—[Tris (1,10-phenanthroline) lanthanum(III)] trithiocyanate is a new compound that has shown high ability for stopping the synthesis of DNA and also acting as a photosensitizer. Nowadays, the radiation dose assessment resource (RADAR) method is known as the most common method for absorbed dose calculation. 177Lu was produced by (n, gamma) reaction in a research reactor. 177Lu-PL3 was prepared in the optimized condition. The radiochemical yield was checked by ITLC method. The biodistribution of the complex was investigated by intravenously injection to wild-type rats via their tail veins. In this study, the absorbed dose of 177Lu-PL3 to human organs was estimated by RADAR method. 177Lu was prepared with a specific activity of 2.6-3 GBq.mg-1 and radionuclide purity of 99.98 %. Final preparation of the radiolabelled complex showed high radiochemical purity of > 99%. The results show that liver and spleen have received the highest absorbed dose of 1.051 and 0.441 mSv/MBq, respectively. The absorbed dose values for these two dose-limiting tissues suggest more biological studies special in tumor-bearing animals.

Keywords: Internal dosimetry, Lutetium-177, radar.

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Authors: Mahmoud R. Shaghaghian

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Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are direct searching methods which require little information from design space. This characteristic beside robustness of these algorithms makes them to be very popular in recent decades. On the other hand, while this method is employed, there is no guarantee to achieve optimum results. This obliged designer to run such algorithms more than one time to achieve more reliable results. There are many attempts to modify the algorithms to make them more efficient. In this paper, by application of fractal dimension (particularly, Box Counting Method), the complexity of design space are established for determination of mutation and crossover probabilities (Pm and Pc). This methodology is followed by a numerical example for more clarification. It is concluded that this modification will improve efficiency of GAs and make them to bring about more reliable results especially for design space with higher fractal dimensions.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Fractal Dimension, BoxCounting Method, Weierstrass-Mandelbrot function.

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Authors: M. R. Haboğlu, A. Kurşun, Ş. Aksoy, H. Aykul, N. B. Bektaş

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Athermal elastic stress analysis of steel fiber reinforced aluminum laminated composite plate is investigated. Four sides of the composite plate are clamped and subjected to a uniform temperature load. The analysis is performed both analytically and numerically. Laminated composite is manufactured via hot pressing method. The investigation of the effects of the orientation angle is provided. Different orientation angles are used such as [0°/90°]s, [30°/-30°]s, [45°/-45°]s, and [60/-60]s. The analytical solution is obtained via classical laminated composite theory and the numerical solution is obtained by applying finite element method via ANSYS.

Keywords: Laminated Composites, Thermo Elastic Stress, Finite Element Method.

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Authors: Imen Mejri, Ahmed Mahmoudi, Mohamed A. Abbassi, Ahmed Omri

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Thermal radiation plays a very important role in the heat transfer combination through the various components of the SOFC fuel cell operating at high temperatures. Lattice Boltzmann method is used for treating conduction-radiation heat transfer in the electrolyte. The thermal radiation heat transfer is coupled to the overall energy conservation equations through the divergence of the local radiative flux. The equation of energy in one dimension is numerically resolved by using the Lattice Boltzmann method. A computing program (FORTRAN) is developed locally for this purpose in order to obtain fields of temperature in every element of the cell. The parameters investigated are: functioning temperature, cell voltages and electrolyte thickness. The results show that the radiation effect increases with increasing the electrolyte thickness, also increases with increasing the functioning temperature and decreases with the increase of the voltage of the cell.

Keywords: SOFC, lattice Boltzmann method, conduction, radiation, planar medium.

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefitting companies. Usability is also the best factor that balances both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk consist risk factors that could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans for reducing potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: Usability, Usability Risk, Risk Management, Risk Mitigation, Delphi Method.

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Authors: E. Assareh, M.A. Behrang, M. Ghalambaz, A.R. Noghrehabadi, A. Ghanbarzadeh

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In this paper, a new approach is introduced to solve Blasius equation using parameter identification of a nonlinear function which is used as approximation function. Bees Algorithm (BA) is applied in order to find the adjustable parameters of approximation function regarding minimizing a fitness function including these parameters (i.e. adjustable parameters). These parameters are determined how the approximation function has to satisfy the boundary conditions. In order to demonstrate the presented method, the obtained results are compared with another numerical method. Present method can be easily extended to solve a wide range of problems.

Keywords: Bees Algorithm (BA); Approximate Solutions; Blasius Differential Equation.

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Authors: M. Reza Bagerzadeh Karimi, M. Mahdi Bagerzadeh Karimi

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In the present paper, active control system is used in different heights of the building and the most effective part was studied where the active control system is applied. The mathematical model of the building is established in MATLAB and in order to active control the system FLC method was used. Three different locations of the building are chosen to apply active control system, namely at the lowest story, the middle height of the building, and at the highest point of the building with TMD system. The equation of motion was written for high rise building and it was solved by statespace method. Also passive control was used with Tuned Mass Damper (TMD) at the top floor of the building to show the robustness of FLC method when compared with passive control system.

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC), Tuned Mass Damper(TMD), Active control, passive control

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Authors: Ali Zifan, Panos Liatsis, Panagiotis Kantartzis, Manolis Gavaises, Nicos Karcanias, Demosthenes Katritsis

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We present a new method for the fully automatic 3D reconstruction of the coronary artery centerlines, using two X-ray angiogram projection images from a single rotating monoplane acquisition system. During the first stage, the input images are smoothed using curve evolution techniques. Next, a simple yet efficient multiscale method, based on the information of the Hessian matrix, for the enhancement of the vascular structure is introduced. Hysteresis thresholding using different image quantiles, is used to threshold the arteries. This stage is followed by a thinning procedure to extract the centerlines. The resulting skeleton image is then pruned using morphological and pattern recognition techniques to remove non-vessel like structures. Finally, edge-based stereo correspondence is solved using a parallel evolutionary optimization method based on f symbiosis. The detected 2D centerlines combined with disparity map information allow the reconstruction of the 3D vessel centerlines. The proposed method has been evaluated on patient data sets for evaluation purposes.

Keywords: Vessel enhancement, centerline extraction, symbiotic reconstruction.

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Authors: Cheng-Hong Yang, Tsung-Mu Shih, Li-Yeh Chuang

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Serial Analysis of Gene Expression is a powerful quantification technique for generating cell or tissue gene expression data. The profile of the gene expression of cell or tissue in several different states is difficult for biologists to analyze because of the large number of genes typically involved. However, feature selection in machine learning can successfully reduce this problem. The method allows reducing the features (genes) in specific SAGE data, and determines only relevant genes. In this study, we used a genetic algorithm to implement feature selection, and evaluate the classification accuracy of the selected features with the K-nearest neighbor method. In order to validate the proposed method, we used two SAGE data sets for testing. The results of this study conclusively prove that the number of features of the original SAGE data set can be significantly reduced and higher classification accuracy can be achieved.

Keywords: Serial Analysis of Gene Expression, Feature selection, Genetic Algorithm, K-nearest neighbor method.

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Authors: Mahamed G.H. Omran, Andries P Engelbrecht, Ayed Salman

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An end-member selection method for spectral unmixing that is based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is developed in this paper. The algorithm uses the K-means clustering algorithm and a method of dynamic selection of end-members subsets to find the appropriate set of end-members for a given set of multispectral images. The proposed algorithm has been successfully applied to test image sets from various platforms such as LANDSAT 5 MSS and NOAA's AVHRR. The experimental results of the proposed algorithm are encouraging. The influence of different values of the algorithm control parameters on performance is studied. Furthermore, the performance of different versions of PSO is also investigated.

Keywords: End-members selection, multispectral satellite imagery, particle swarm optimization, spectral unmixing.

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Authors: Vincent F. Yu, Ha Thi Xuan Chi

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Nejad and Mashinchi (2011) proposed a revision for ranking fuzzy numbers based on the areas of the left and the right sides of a fuzzy number. However, this method still has some shortcomings such as lack of discriminative power to rank similar fuzzy numbers and no guarantee the consistency between the ranking of fuzzy numbers and the ranking of their images. To overcome these drawbacks, we propose an epsilon-deviation degree method based on the left area and the right area of a fuzzy number, and the concept of the centroid point. The main advantage of the new approach is the development of an innovative index value which can be used to consistently evaluate and rank fuzzy numbers. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency and superiority of the proposed method.

Keywords: Ranking fuzzy numbers, Centroid, Deviation degree.

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Authors: Amin Almasi

Abstract:

Analysis of reciprocating equipment piston rod leads to nonlinear elastic-plastic deformation analysis of rod with initial imperfection under axial dynamic load. In this paper a new and effective model and analytical formulations are presented to evaluate dynamic deformation and elastic-plastic stresses of reciprocating machine piston rod. This new method has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, elastic-plastic deformation and dynamic effects. Proposed method can be used for evaluation of piston rod performance for various reciprocating machines under different operation situations. Rod load curves and maximum allowable rod load are calculated with presented method for a refinery type reciprocating compressor. Useful recommendations and guidelines for rod load, rod load reversal and rod drop monitoring are also addressed.

Keywords: Deformation, Reciprocating Equipment, Rod.

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Authors: Ahmed Zaafouri, Mounir Sayadi, Farhat Fnaiech

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In this paper, we present a method for edge segmentation of satellite images based on 2-D Phase Congruency (PC) model. The proposed approach is composed by two steps: The contextual non linear smoothing algorithm (CNLS) is used to smooth the input images. Then, the 2D stretched Gabor filter (S-G filter) based on proposed angular variation is developed in order to avoid the multiple responses in the previous work. An assessment of our proposed method performance is provided in terms of accuracy of satellite image edge segmentation. The proposed method is compared with others known approaches.

Keywords: Edge segmentation, Phase congruency model, Satellite images, Stretched Gabor filter

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Authors: Jinwooung Kim, Jae-Hwan Jung, Seong-Jun Kim, Sung-Ah Kim

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Because the building envelope has a significant impact on the operation and maintenance stage of the building, designing the facade considering the performance can improve the performance of the building and lower the maintenance cost of the building. In general, however, optimizing two or more performance factors confronts the limits of time and computational tools. The optimization phase typically repeats infinitely until a series of processes that generate alternatives and analyze the generated alternatives achieve the desired performance. In particular, as complex geometry or precision increases, computational resources and time are prohibitive to find the required performance, so an optimization methodology is needed to deal with this. Instead of directly analyzing all the alternatives in the optimization process, applying experimental techniques (heuristic method) learned through experimentation and experience can reduce resource waste. This study proposes and verifies a method to optimize the double envelope of a building composed of a perforated panel using machine learning to the design geometry and quantitative performance. The proposed method is to achieve the required performance with fewer resources by supplementing the existing method which cannot calculate the complex shape of the perforated panel.

Keywords: Building envelope, machine learning, perforated metal, multi-factor optimization, façade.

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Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Makino Kyoko, Shigeru Matsumoto

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This paper proposes a method that predicts attractive evaluation objects. In the learning phase, the method inductively acquires trend rules from complex sequential data. The data is composed of two types of data. One is numerical sequential data. Each evaluation object has respective numerical sequential data. The other is text sequential data. Each evaluation object is described in texts. The trend rules represent changes of numerical values related to evaluation objects. In the prediction phase, the method applies new text sequential data to the trend rules and evaluates which evaluation objects are attractive. This paper verifies the effect of the proposed method by using stock price sequences and news headline sequences. In these sequences, each stock brand corresponds to an evaluation object. This paper discusses validity of predicted attractive evaluation objects, the process time of each phase, and the possibility of application tasks.

Keywords: Trend rule, frequent pattern, numerical sequential data, text sequential data, evaluation object.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper discusses the use of the composite programming method to identify the optimum electric passenger automobile in multiple criteria decision making. With the composite programming approach, a set of alternatives are compared using an optimality measure that gauges how far apart they are from the optimum solution. In this paper, some key factors (range, battery, engine, maximum speed, acceleration) that customers should consider while purchasing an electric passenger car for daily use are discussed. A numerical illustration is provided to demonstrate the validity and applicability of the proximity measure approach

Keywords: electric passenger car selection, multiple criteria decision making, proximity measure method, composite programming, entropic weight method

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Authors: Carla E. O. de Moraes, Gladson O. Antunes, Mauro A. Rincon

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The aim of this paper is to study the internal stabilization of the Bernoulli-Euler equation numerically. For this, we consider a square plate subjected to a feedback/damping force distributed only in a subdomain. An algorithm for obtaining an approximate solution to this problem was proposed and implemented. The numerical method used was the Finite Difference Method. Numerical simulations were performed and showed the behavior of the solution, confirming the theoretical results that have already been proved in the literature. In addition, we studied the validation of the numerical scheme proposed, followed by an analysis of the numerical error; and we conducted a study on the decay of the energy associated.

Keywords: Bernoulli-Euler Plate Equation, Numerical Simulations, Stability, Energy Decay, Finite Difference Method.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Using the aid of Hausdorff distance function and Minkowski distance function, this study proposes a novel method for selecting combat aircraft for Air Force. In order to do this, the proximity measure method was developed with determinate fuzzy degrees based on the relationship between attributes and combat aircraft alternatives. The combat aircraft selection attributes were identified as payloadability, maneuverability, speedability, stealthability, and survivability. Determinate fuzzy data from the combat aircraft attributes was then aggregated using the determinate fuzzy weighted arithmetic average operator. For the selection of combat aircraft, correlation analysis of the ranking order patterns of options was also examined. A numerical example from military aviation is used to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Combat aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, fuzzy sets, determinate fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy sets, proximity measure method, Hausdorff distance function, Minkowski distance function, PMM, MCDM

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Authors: Manjunath Aradhya V N, Hemantha Kumar G, Shivakumara P

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Document image processing has become an increasingly important technology in the automation of office documentation tasks. During document scanning, skew is inevitably introduced into the incoming document image. Since the algorithm for layout analysis and character recognition are generally very sensitive to the page skew. Hence, skew detection and correction in document images are the critical steps before layout analysis. In this paper, a novel skew detection method is presented for binary document images. The method considered the some selected characters of the text which may be subjected to thinning and Hough transform to estimate skew angle accurately. Several experiments have been conducted on various types of documents such as documents containing English Documents, Journals, Text-Book, Different Languages and Document with different fonts, Documents with different resolutions, to reveal the robustness of the proposed method. The experimental results revealed that the proposed method is accurate compared to the results of well-known existing methods.

Keywords: Optical Character Recognition, Skew angle, Thinning, Hough transform, Document processing

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

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The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: Concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix.

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