Search results for: thermodynamic models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2643

Search results for: thermodynamic models

2583 Kinetic, Thermodynamic and Process Modeling of Synthesis of UV Curable Glyceryl and Neopentyl Glycol Acrylates

Authors: R. D. Kulkarni, Mayur Chaudhari, S. Mishra

Abstract:

Curing of paints by exposure to UV radiations is emerging as one of the best film forming technique as an alternative to traditional solvent borne oxidative and thermal curing coatings. The composition and chemistry of UV curable coatings and role of multifunctional and monofunctional monomers, oligomers, and photoinitiators have been discussed. The limitations imposed by thermodynamic equilibrium and tendency for acrylic double bond polymerizations during synthesis of multifunctional acrylates have been presented. Aim of present investigation was thus to explore the reaction variables associated with synthesis of multifunctional acrylates. Zirconium oxychloride was evaluated as catalyst against regular acid functional catalyst. The catalyzed synthesis of glyceryl acrylate and neopentyl glycol acrylate was conducted by variation of following reaction parameters: two different reactant molar ratios- 1:4 and 1:6; catalyst usage in % by moles on polyol- 2.5, 5.0 and 7.5 and two different reaction temperatures- 45 and 75 0C. The reaction was monitored by determination of acid value and hydroxy value at regular intervals, besides TLC, HPLC, and FTIR analysis of intermediates and products. On the basis of determination of reaction progress over 1-60 hrs, the esterification reaction was observed to follow 2nd order kinetics with rate constant varying from 1*10-4 to 7*10-4. The thermal and catalytic components of second order rate constant and energy of activation were also determined. Uses of these kinetic and thermodynamic parameters in design of reactor for manufacture of multifunctional acrylate ester have been presented. The synthesized multifunctional acrylates were used to formulate and apply UV curable clear coat followed by determination of curing characteristics and mechanical properties of cured film. The overall curing rates less than 05 min. were easily attained indicating economical viability of radiation curable system due to faster production schedules

Keywords: glyceryl acrylate, neopentyl glycol acrylate, kinetic modeling, zirconium oxychloride.

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2582 Zero Inflated Models for Overdispersed Count Data

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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2581 Minimization Entropic Applied to Rotary Dryers to Reduce the Energy Consumption

Authors: I. O. Nascimento, J. T. Manzi

Abstract:

The drying process is an important operation in the chemical industry and it is widely used in the food, grain industry and fertilizer industry. However, for demanding a considerable consumption of energy, such a process requires a deep energetic analysis in order to reduce operating costs. This paper deals with thermodynamic optimization applied to rotary dryers based on the entropy production minimization, aiming at to reduce the energy consumption. To do this, the mass, energy and entropy balance was used for developing a relationship that represents the rate of entropy production. The use of the Second Law of Thermodynamics is essential because it takes into account constraints of nature. Since the entropy production rate is minimized, optimals conditions of operations can be established and the process can obtain a substantial gain in energy saving. The minimization strategy had been led using classical methods such as Lagrange multipliers and implemented in the MATLAB platform. As expected, the preliminary results reveal a significant energy saving by the application of the optimal parameters found by the procedure of the entropy minimization It is important to say that this method has shown easy implementation and low cost.

Keywords: Drying, entropy minimization, modeling dryers, thermodynamic optimization.

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2580 Recent Trends in Supply Chain Delivery Models

Authors: Alfred L. Guiffrida

Abstract:

A review of the literature on supply chain delivery models which use delivery windows to measure delivery performance is presented. The review herein serves to meet the following objectives: (i) provide a synthesis of previously published literature on supply chain delivery performance models, (ii) provide in one paper a consolidation of research that can serve as a single source to keep researchers up to date with the research developments in supply chain delivery models, and (iii) identify gaps in the modeling of supply chain delivery performance which could stimulate new research agendas.

Keywords: Delivery performance, Delivery window, Supply chain delivery models, Supply chain performance.

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2579 Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Duplex Stainless steel for Anchor Bolt Application

Authors: Gil Hwan Na , Woo Young Jung , Tae Kwon Ha

Abstract:

Most buildings have been using anchor bolts commonly for installing outdoor advertising structures. Anchor bolts of common carbon steel are widely used and often installed indiscriminately by inadequate installation standards. In the area where strong winds frequently blow, falling accidents of outdoor advertising structures can occur and cause a serious disaster, which is very dangerous and to be prevented. In this regard, the development of high-performance anchor bolts is urgently required. In the present study, 25Cr-8Ni-1.5Si-1Mn-0.4C alloy was produced by traditional vacuum induction melting (VIM) for the application of anchor bolt. The alloy composition is revealed as a duplex microstructure from thermodynamic phase analysis by FactSage® and confirmed by metallographic experiment. Addition of Nitrogen to the alloy was found to reduce the ferritic phase domain and significantly increase the hardness and the tensile strength. Microstructure observation revealed mixed structure of austenite and ferrite with fine carbide distributed along the grain and phase boundaries.

Keywords: Anchor bolt, Duplex stainless steel, FactSage®, Hardness, Thermodynamic phase analysis.

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2578 Power MOSFET Models Including Quasi-Saturation Effect

Authors: Abdelghafour Galadi

Abstract:

In this paper, accurate power MOSFET models including quasi-saturation effect are presented. These models have no internal node voltages determined by the circuit simulator and use one JFET or one depletion mode MOSFET transistors controlled by an “effective” gate voltage taking into account the quasi-saturation effect. The proposed models achieve accurate simulation results with an average error percentage less than 9%, which is an improvement of 21 percentage points compared to the commonly used standard power MOSFET model. In addition, the models can be integrated in any available commercial circuit simulators by using their analytical equations. A description of the models will be provided along with the parameter extraction procedure.

Keywords: Power MOSFET, drift layer, quasi-saturation effect, SPICE model, circuit simulation.

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2577 Analyzing and Comparing the Hot-spot Thermal Models of HV/LV Prefabricated and Outdoor Oil-Immersed Power Transformers

Authors: Ali Mamizadeh, Ires Iskender

Abstract:

The most important parameter in transformers life expectancy is the hot-spot temperature level which accelerates the rate of aging of the insulation. The aim of this paper is to present thermal models for transformers loaded at prefabricated MV/LV transformer substations and outdoor situations. The hot-spot temperature of transformers is studied using their top-oil temperature rise models. The thermal models proposed for hot-spot and top-oil temperatures of different operating situations are compared. Since the thermal transfer is different for indoor and outdoor transformers considering their operating conditions, their hot-spot thermal models differ from each other. The proposed thermal models are verified by the results obtained from the experiments carried out on a typical 1600 kVA, 30 /0.4 kV, ONAN transformer for both indoor and outdoor situations.

Keywords: Hot-spot Temperature, Dynamic Thermal Model, MV/LV Prefabricated, Oil Immersed Transformers

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2576 Predictability of the Two Commonly Used Models to Represent the Thin-layer Re-wetting Characteristics of Barley

Authors: M. A. Basunia

Abstract:

Thirty three re-wetting tests were conducted at different combinations of temperatures (5.7- 46.30C) and relative humidites (48.2-88.6%) with barley. Two most commonly used thinlayer drying and rewetting models i.e. Page and Diffusion were compared for their ability to the fit the experimental re-wetting data based on the standard error of estimate (SEE) of the measured and simulated moisture contents. The comparison shows both the Page and Diffusion models fit the re-wetting experimental data of barley well. The average SEE values for the Page and Diffusion models were 0.176 % d.b. and 0.199 % d.b., respectively. The Page and Diffusion models were found to be most suitable equations, to describe the thin-layer re-wetting characteristics of barley over a typically five day re-wetting. These two models can be used for the simulation of deep-bed re-wetting of barley occurring during ventilated storage and deep bed drying.

Keywords: Thin-layer, barley, re-wetting parameters, temperature, relative humidity.

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2575 Comparison of Artificial Neural Network Architectures in the Task of Tourism Time Series Forecast

Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes

Abstract:

The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.

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2574 Quantum Modelling of AgHMoO4, CsHMoO4 and AgCsMoO4 Chemistry in the Field of Nuclear Power Plant Safety

Authors: Mohamad Saab, Sidi Souvi

Abstract:

In a major nuclear accident, the released fission products (FPs) and the structural materials are likely to influence the transport of iodine in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). So far, the thermodynamic data on cesium and silver species used to estimate the magnitude of FP release show some discrepancies, data are scarce and not reliable. For this reason, it is crucial to review the thermodynamic values related to cesium and silver materials. To this end, we have used state-of-the-art quantum chemical methods to compute the formation enthalpies and entropies of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄ in the gas phase. Different quantum chemical methods have been investigated (DFT and CCSD(T)) in order to predict the geometrical parameters and the energetics including the correlation energy. The geometries were optimized with TPSSh-5%HF method, followed by a single point calculation of the total electronic energies using the CCSD(T) wave function method. We thus propose with a final uncertainty of about 2 kJmol⁻¹ standard enthalpies of formation of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄.

Keywords: ASTEC, Accident Source Term Evaluation Code, quantum chemical methods, severe nuclear accident, thermochemical database.

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2573 Removal of Cibacron Brilliant Yellow 3G-P Dye from Aqueous Solutions Using Coffee Husks as Non-Conventional Low-Cost Sorbent

Authors: Ismail I. Fasfous, Nedal Abu Farha

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to establish the experimental conditions for removal of Cibacron Brilliant Yellow 3G-P dye (CBY) from aqueous solutions by sorption onto coffee husks as a low-cost sorbent. The effects of various experimental parameters (e.g. initial CBY dye concentration, sorbent mass, pH, temperature) were examined and the optimal experimental conditions were determined. The results indicated that the removal of the dye was pH dependent and at initial pH of 2, the dye was removed effectively. The CBY dye sorption data were fitted to Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin and Dubinin-Radushkevich equilibrium models. The maximum sorption capacity of CBY dye ions onto coffee husks increased from 24.04 to 35.04 mg g-1 when the temperature was increased from 293 to 313 K. The calculated sorption thermodynamic parameters including ΔG°, ΔH°, and ΔS° indicated that the CBY dye sorption onto coffee husks is a spontaneous, endothermic and mainly physical in nature.

Keywords: Coffee husks, equilibrium, reactive dyes, sorption.

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2572 Review of Models of Consumer Behaviour and Influence of Emotions in the Decision Making

Authors: Mikel Alonso López

Abstract:

In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been established for this study is chronological.

Keywords: Consumer behaviour, emotions, decision making, consumer psychology.

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2571 The Relationship between Fugacity and Stress Intensity Factor for Corrosive Environment in Presence of Hydrogen Embrittlement

Authors: A. R. Shahani, E. Mahdavi, M. Amidpour

Abstract:

Hydrogen diffusion is the main problem for corrosion fatigue in corrosive environment. In order to analyze the phenomenon, it is needed to understand their behaviors specially the hydrogen behavior during the diffusion. So, Hydrogen embrittlement and prediction its behavior as a main corrosive part of the fractions, needed to solve combinations of different equations mathematically. The main point to obtain the equation, having knowledge about the source of causing diffusion and running the atoms into materials, called driving force. This is produced by either gradient of electrical or chemical potential. In this work, we consider the gradient of chemical potential to obtain the property equation. In diffusion of atoms, some of them may be trapped but, it could be ignorable in some conditions. According to the phenomenon of hydrogen embrittlement, the thermodynamic and chemical properties of hydrogen are considered to justify and relate them to fracture mechanics. It is very important to get a stress intensity factor by using fugacity as a property of hydrogen or other gases. Although, the diffusive behavior and embrittlement event are common and the same for other gases but, for making it more clear, we describe it for hydrogen. This considering on the definite gas and describing it helps us to understand better the importance of this relation.

Keywords: Hydrogen embrittlement, Fracture mechanics, Thermodynamic, Stress intensity factor.

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2570 Innovative Methods of Improving Train Formation in Freight Transport

Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

Abstract:

The paper is focused on the operational model for transport the single wagon consignments on railway network by using two different models of train formation. The paper gives an overview of possibilities of improving the quality of transport services. Paper deals with two models used in problematic of train formatting - time continuously and time discrete. By applying these models in practice, the transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and expect increasing of transport performance. The models are also applicable into others transport networks. The models supplement a theoretical problem of train formation by new ways of looking to affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: Train formation, wagon flows, marshalling yard, railway technology.

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2569 Malt Bagasse Waste as Biosorbent for Malachite Green: An Ecofriendly Approach for Dye Removal from Aqueous Solution

Authors: H. C. O. Reis, A. S. Cossolin, B. A. P. Santos, K. C. Castro, G. M. Pereira, V. C. Silva, P. T. Sousa Jr, E. L. Dall’Oglio, L. G. Vasconcelos, E. B. Morais

Abstract:

In this study, malt bagasse, a low-cost waste biomass, was tested as a biosorbent to remove the cationic dye Malachite green (MG) from aqueous solution. Batch biosorption experiments were investigated as functions of different experimental parameters such as initial pH, salt (NaCl) concentration, contact time, temperature and initial dye concentration. Higher removal rates of MG were obtained at pH 8 and 10. The equilibrium and kinetic studies suggest that the biosorption follows Langmuir isotherm and the pseudo-second-order model. The maximum monolayer adsorption capacity was estimated at 117.65 mg/g (at 45 °C). According to Dubinin–Radushkevich (D-R) isotherm model, biosorption of MG onto malt bagasse occurs physically. The thermodynamic parameters such as Gibbs free energy, enthalpy and entropy indicated that the MG biosorption onto malt bagasse is spontaneous and endothermic. The results of the ionic strength effect indicated that the biosorption process under study had a strong tolerance under high salt concentrations. It can be concluded that malt bagasse waste has potential for application as biosorbent for removal of MG from aqueous solution.

Keywords: Color removal, kinetic and isotherm studies, thermodynamic parameters, FTIR.

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2568 Data Annotation Models and Annotation Query Language

Authors: Neerja Bhatnagar, Benjoe A. Juliano, Renee S. Renner

Abstract:

This paper presents data annotation models at five levels of granularity (database, relation, column, tuple, and cell) of relational data to address the problem of unsuitability of most relational databases to express annotations. These models do not require any structural and schematic changes to the underlying database. These models are also flexible, extensible, customizable, database-neutral, and platform-independent. This paper also presents an SQL-like query language, named Annotation Query Language (AnQL), to query annotation documents. AnQL is simple to understand and exploits the already-existent wide knowledge and skill set of SQL.

Keywords: annotation query language, data annotations, data annotation models, semantic data annotations

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2567 Improve Safety Performance of Un-Signalized Intersections in Oman

Authors: Siham G. Farag

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T-intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: Accidents Prediction Models (APMs), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman.

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2566 Energy Efficiency Analysis of Discharge Modes of an Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage System

Authors: Shane D. Inder, Mehrdad Khamooshi

Abstract:

Efficient energy storage is a crucial factor in facilitating the uptake of renewable energy resources. Among the many options available for energy storage systems required to balance imbalanced supply and demand cycles, compressed air energy storage (CAES) is a proven technology in grid-scale applications. This paper reviews the current state of micro scale CAES technology and describes a micro-scale advanced adiabatic CAES (A-CAES) system, where heat generated during compression is stored for use in the discharge phase. It will also describe a thermodynamic model, developed in EES (Engineering Equation Solver) to evaluate the performance and critical parameters of the discharge phase of the proposed system. Three configurations are explained including: single turbine without preheater, two turbines with preheaters, and three turbines with preheaters. It is shown that the micro-scale A-CAES is highly dependent upon key parameters including; regulator pressure, air pressure and volume, thermal energy storage temperature and flow rate and the number of turbines. It was found that a micro-scale AA-CAES, when optimized with an appropriate configuration, could deliver energy input to output efficiency of up to 70%.

Keywords: CAES, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, expansion phase, micro generation, thermodynamic.

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2565 Deterioration Assessment Models for Water Pipelines

Authors: L. Parvizsedghy, I. Gkountis, A. Senouci, T. Zayed, M. Alsharqawi, H. El Chanati, M. El-Abbasy, F. Mosleh

Abstract:

The aging and deterioration of water pipelines in cities worldwide result in more frequent water main breaks, water service disruptions, and flooding damage. Therefore, there is an urgent need for undertaking proper maintenance procedures to avoid breaks and disastrous failures. However, due to budget limitations, the maintenance of water pipeline networks needs to be prioritized through efficient deterioration assessment models. Previous studies focused on the development of structural or physical deterioration assessment models, which require expensive inspection data. But, this paper aims at developing deterioration assessment models for water pipelines using statistical techniques. Several deterioration models were developed based on pipeline size, material type, and soil type using linear regression analysis. The categorical nature of some variables affecting pipeline deterioration was considered through developing several categorical models. The developed models were validated with an average validity percentage greater than 95%. Moreover, sensitivity analysis was carried out against different classifications and it displayed higher importance of age of pipes compared to other factors. The developed models will be helpful for the water municipalities and asset managers to assess the condition of their pipes and prioritize them for maintenance and inspection purposes.

Keywords: Water pipelines, deterioration assessment models, regression analysis.

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2564 Phase Equilibrium of Volatile Organic Compounds in Polymeric Solvents Using Group Contribution Methods

Authors: E. Muzenda

Abstract:

Group contribution methods such as the UNIFAC are of major interest to researchers and engineers involved synthesis, feasibility studies, design and optimization of separation processes as well as other applications of industrial use. Reliable knowledge of the phase equilibrium behavior is crucial for the prediction of the fate of the chemical in the environment and other applications. The objective of this study was to predict the solubility of selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in glycol polymers and biodiesel. Measurements can be expensive and time consuming, hence the need for thermodynamic models. The results obtained in this study for the infinite dilution activity coefficients compare very well those published in literature obtained through measurements. It is suggested that in preliminary design or feasibility studies of absorption systems for the abatement of volatile organic compounds, prediction procedures should be implemented while accurate fluid phase equilibrium data should be obtained from experiment.

Keywords: Volatile organic compounds, Prediction, Phaseequilibrium, Environmental, Infinite dilution.

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2563 Application of Lattice Boltzmann Methods in Heat and Moisture Transfer in Frozen Soil

Authors: Wenyu Song, Bingxi Li, Zhongbin Fu, Bo Zhang

Abstract:

Although water only takes a little percentage in the total mass of soil, it indeed plays an important role to the strength of structure. Moisture transfer can be carried out by many different mechanisms which may involve heat and mass transfer, thermodynamic phase change, and the interplay of various forces such as viscous, buoyancy, and capillary forces. The continuum models are not well suited for describing those phenomena in which the connectivity of the pore space or the fracture network, or that of a fluid phase, plays a major role. However, Lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs) are especially well suited to simulate flows around complex geometries. Lattice Boltzmann methods were initially invented for solving fluid flows. Recently, fluid with multicomponent and phase change is also included in the equations. By comparing the numerical result with experimental result, the Lattice Boltzmann methods with phase change will be optimized.

Keywords: Frozen soil, Lattice Boltzmann method, Phase change, Test rig.

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2562 A Comparison of the Nonparametric Regression Models using Smoothing Spline and Kernel Regression

Authors: Dursun Aydin

Abstract:

This paper study about using of nonparametric models for Gross National Product data in Turkey and Stanford heart transplant data. It is discussed two nonparametric techniques called smoothing spline and kernel regression. The main goal is to compare the techniques used for prediction of the nonparametric regression models. According to the results of numerical studies, it is concluded that smoothing spline regression estimators are better than those of the kernel regression.

Keywords: Kernel regression, Nonparametric models, Prediction, Smoothing spline.

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2561 Bank Business Models and The Changes in CEE Countries

Authors: I. Erins, J. Erina

Abstract:

The aim of this article is to assess the existing business models used by the banks operating in the CEE countries in the time period from 2006 till 2011. In order to obtain research results, the authors performed qualitative analysis of the scientific literature on bank business models, which have been grouped into clusters that consist of such components as: 1) capital and reserves; 2) assets; 3) deposits, and 4) loans. In their turn, bank business models have been developed based on the types of core activities of the banks, and have been divided into four groups: Wholesale, Investment, Retail and Universal Banks. Descriptive statistics have been used to analyse the models, determining mean, minimal and maximal values of constituent cluster components, as well as standard deviation. The analysis of the data is based on such bank variable indices as Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE).

Keywords: Banks, Business model, CEE, ROA, ROE.

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2560 A Comparative Analysis of E-Government Quality Models

Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

Abstract:

Many quality models have been used to measure egovernment portals quality. However, the absence of an international consensus for e-government portals quality models results in many differences in terms of quality attributes and measures. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the existing e-government quality models proposed in literature (those that are based on ISO standards and those that are not) in order to propose guidelines to build a good and useful e-government portals quality model. Our findings show that, there is no e-government portal quality model based on the new international standard ISO 25010. Besides that, the quality models are not based on a best practice model to allow agencies to both; measure e-government portals quality and identify missing best practices for those portals.

Keywords: E-government, portal, best practices, quality model, ISO, standard, ISO 25010, ISO 9126.

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2559 A Comparative Analysis of Artificial Neural Network and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model on Modeling and Forecasting Exchange Rate

Authors: Mogari I. Rapoo, Diteboho Xaba

Abstract:

This paper examines the forecasting performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with the published exchange rate obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB). ARIMA is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting for the past decades. ARIMA and ANN models are often compared and literature revealed mixed results in terms of forecasting performance. The study used the MSE and MAE to measure the forecasting performance of the models. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of ARIMA model over ANN model. The findings further resolve and clarify the contradiction reported in literature over the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models.

Keywords: ARIMA, artificial neural networks models, error metrics, exchange rates.

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2558 A Comparative Study of PV Models in Matlab/Simulink

Authors: Mohammad Seifi, Azura Bt. Che Soh, Noor Izzrib. Abd. Wahab, Mohd Khair B. Hassan

Abstract:

Solar energy has a major role in renewable energy resources. Solar Cell as a basement of solar system has attracted lots of research. To conduct a study about solar energy system, an authenticated model is required. Diode base PV models are widely used by researchers. These models are classified based on the number of diodes used in them. Single and two-diode models are well studied. Single-diode models may have two, three or four elements. In this study, these solar cell models are examined and the simulation results are compared to each other. All PV models are re-designed in the Matlab/Simulink software and they examined by certain test conditions and parameters. This paper provides comparative studies of these models and it tries to compare the simulation results with manufacturer-s data sheet to investigate model validity and accuracy. The results show a four- element single-diode model is accurate and has moderate complexity in contrast to the two-diode model with higher complexity and accuracy

Keywords: Fill Factor (FF), Matlab/Simulink, Maximum PowerPoint (MPP), Maximum Power Point Tracker (MPPT), Photo Voltaic(PV), Solar cell, Standard Test Condition (STC).

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2557 System Identification Based on Stepwise Regression for Dynamic Market Representation

Authors: Alexander Efremov

Abstract:

A system for market identification (SMI) is presented. The resulting representations are multivariable dynamic demand models. The market specifics are analyzed. Appropriate models and identification techniques are chosen. Multivariate static and dynamic models are used to represent the market behavior. The steps of the first stage of SMI, named data preprocessing, are mentioned. Next, the second stage, which is the model estimation, is considered in more details. Stepwise linear regression (SWR) is used to determine the significant cross-effects and the orders of the model polynomials. The estimates of the model parameters are obtained by a numerically stable estimator. Real market data is used to analyze SMI performance. The main conclusion is related to the applicability of multivariate dynamic models for representation of market systems.

Keywords: market identification, dynamic models, stepwise regression.

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2556 Virtual Reality Models used on the Visualization of Construction Activities in Civil Engineering Education

Authors: Alcínia Z. Sampaio, Pedro G. Henriques

Abstract:

Three-dimensional geometric models have been used to present architectural and engineering works, showing their final configuration. When the clarification of a detail or the constitution of a construction step in needed, these models are not appropriate. They do not allow the observation of the construction progress of a building. Models that could present dynamically changes of the building geometry are a good support to the elaboration of projects. Techniques of geometric modeling and virtual reality were used to obtain models that could visually simulate the construction activity. The applications explain the construction work of a cavity wall and a bridge. These models allow the visualization of the physical progression of the work following a planned construction sequence, the observation of details of the form of every component of the works and support the study of the type and method of operation of the equipment applied in the construction. These models presented distinct advantage as educational aids in first-degree courses in Civil Engineering. The use of Virtual Reality techniques in the development of educational applications brings new perspectives to the teaching of subjects related to the field of civil construction.

Keywords: Education, Engineering, virtual reality, visualsimulation.

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2555 Comparison of Deep Convolutional Neural Networks Models for Plant Disease Identification

Authors: Megha Gupta, Nupur Prakash

Abstract:

Identification of plant diseases has been performed using machine learning and deep learning models on the datasets containing images of healthy and diseased plant leaves. The current study carries out an evaluation of some of the deep learning models based on convolutional neural network architectures for identification of plant diseases. For this purpose, the publicly available New Plant Diseases Dataset, an augmented version of PlantVillage dataset, available on Kaggle platform, containing 87,900 images has been used. The dataset contained images of 26 diseases of 14 different plants and images of 12 healthy plants. The CNN models selected for the study presented in this paper are AlexNet, ZFNet, VGGNet (four models), GoogLeNet, and ResNet (three models). The selected models are trained using PyTorch, an open-source machine learning library, on Google Colaboratory. A comparative study has been carried out to analyze the high degree of accuracy achieved using these models. The highest test accuracy and F1-score of 99.59% and 0.996, respectively, were achieved by using GoogLeNet with Mini-batch momentum based gradient descent learning algorithm.

Keywords: comparative analysis, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, plant disease identification

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2554 Management of Cultural Heritage: Bologna Gates

Authors: A. Ippolito, C. Bartolomei

Abstract:

A growing demand is felt today for realistic 3D models enabling the cognition and popularization of historical-artistic heritage. Evaluation and preservation of Cultural Heritage is inextricably connected with the innovative processes of gaining, managing, and using knowledge. The development and perfecting of techniques for acquiring and elaborating photorealistic 3D models, made them pivotal elements for popularizing information of objects on the scale of architectonic structures.

Keywords: Cultural heritage, databases, non-contact survey, 2D- 3D models.

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