Search results for: tree based model.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15695

Search results for: tree based model.

14945 Stability Bound of Ruin Probability in a Reduced Two-Dimensional Risk Model

Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

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14944 Comparative Study of Filter Characteristics as Statistical Vocal Correlates of Clinical Psychiatric State in Human

Authors: Thaweesak Yingthawornsuk, Chusak Thanawattano

Abstract:

Acoustical properties of speech have been shown to be related to mental states of speaker with symptoms: depression and remission. This paper describes way to address the issue of distinguishing depressed patients from remitted subjects based on measureable acoustics change of their spoken sound. The vocal-tract related frequency characteristics of speech samples from female remitted and depressed patients were analyzed via speech processing techniques and consequently, evaluated statistically by cross-validation with Support Vector Machine. Our results comparatively show the classifier's performance with effectively correct separation of 93% determined from testing with the subjectbased feature model and 88% from the frame-based model based on the same speech samples collected from hospital visiting interview sessions between patients and psychiatrists.

Keywords: Depression, SVM, Vocal Extract, Vocal Tract

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14943 Dynamic Shock Bank Liquidity Analysis

Authors: C. Recommandé, J.C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

Abstract:

Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, Liquidity Shock, Non-standard Intervention.

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14942 An Efficient Data Collection Approach for Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Hanieh Alipour, Alireza Nemaney Pour

Abstract:

One of the most important applications of wireless sensor networks is data collection. This paper proposes as efficient approach for data collection in wireless sensor networks by introducing Member Forward List. This list includes the nodes with highest priority for forwarding the data. When a node fails or dies, this list is used to select the next node with higher priority. The benefit of this node is that it prevents the algorithm from repeating when a node fails or dies. The results show that Member Forward List decreases power consumption and latency in wireless sensor networks.

Keywords: Data Collection, Wireless Sensor Network, SensorNode, Tree-Based

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14941 Design and Analysis of MEMS based Accelerometer for Automatic Detection of Railway Wheel Flat

Authors: Rajib Ul Alam Uzzal, Ion Stiharu, Waiz Ahmed

Abstract:

This paper presents the modeling of a MEMS based accelerometer in order to detect the presence of a wheel flat in the railway vehicle. A haversine wheel flat is assigned to one wheel of a 5 DOF pitch plane vehicle model, which is coupled to a 3 layer track model. Based on the simulated acceleration response obtained from the vehicle-track model, an accelerometer is designed that meets all the requirements to detect the presence of a wheel flat. The proposed accelerometer can survive in a dynamic shocking environment with acceleration up to ±150g. The parameters of the accelerometer are calculated in order to achieve the required specifications using lumped element approximation and the results are used for initial design layout. A finite element analysis code (COMSOL) is used to perform simulations of the accelerometer under various operating conditions and to determine the optimum configuration. The simulated results are found within about 2% of the calculated values, which indicates the validity of lumped element approach. The stability of the accelerometer is also determined in the desired range of operation including the condition under shock.

Keywords: MEMS accelerometer, Pitch plane vehicle, wheel flat.

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14940 Quantitative Estimation of Periodicities in Lyari River Flow Routing

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.

Keywords: Diagnostic checks, Lyari river, Model selection, Monthly waste flow, Periodicity, Periodic autoregressive model.

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14939 Qmulus – A Cloud Driven GPS Based Tracking System for Real-Time Traffic Routing

Authors: Niyati Parameswaran, Bharathi Muthu, Madiajagan Muthaiyan

Abstract:

This paper presents Qmulus- a Cloud Based GPS Model. Qmulus is designed to compute the best possible route which would lead the driver to the specified destination in the shortest time while taking into account real-time constraints. Intelligence incorporated to Qmulus-s design makes it capable of generating and assigning priorities to a list of optimal routes through customizable dynamic updates. The goal of this design is to minimize travel and cost overheads, maintain reliability and consistency, and implement scalability and flexibility. The model proposed focuses on reducing the bridge between a Client Application and a Cloud service so as to render seamless operations. Qmulus-s system model is closely integrated and its concept has the potential to be extended into several other integrated applications making it capable of adapting to different media and resources.

Keywords: Cloud Services, GPS, Real-Time Constraints, Shortest Path, System Management and Traffic Routing

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14938 Verification and Proposal of Information Processing Model Using EEG-Based Brain Activity Monitoring

Authors: Toshitaka Higashino, Naoki Wakamiya

Abstract:

Human beings perform a task by perceiving information from outside, recognizing them, and responding them. There have been various attempts to analyze and understand internal processes behind the reaction to a given stimulus by conducting psychological experiments and analysis from multiple perspectives. Among these, we focused on Model Human Processor (MHP). However, it was built based on psychological experiments and thus the relation with brain activity was unclear so far. To verify the validity of the MHP and propose our model from a viewpoint of neuroscience, EEG (Electroencephalography) measurements are performed during experiments in this study. More specifically, first, experiments were conducted where Latin alphabet characters were used as visual stimuli. In addition to response time, ERPs (event-related potentials) such as N100 and P300 were measured by using EEG. By comparing cycle time predicted by the MHP and latency of ERPs, it was found that N100, related to perception of stimuli, appeared at the end of the perceptual processor. Furthermore, by conducting an additional experiment, it was revealed that P300, related to decision making, appeared during the response decision process, not at the end. Second, by experiments using Japanese Hiragana characters, i.e. Japan's own phonetic symbols, those findings were confirmed. Finally, Japanese Kanji characters were used as more complicated visual stimuli. A Kanji character usually has several readings and several meanings. Despite the difference, a reading-related task and a meaning-related task exhibited similar results, meaning that they involved similar information processing processes of the brain. Based on those results, our model was proposed which reflects response time and ERP latency. It consists of three processors: the perception processor from an input of a stimulus to appearance of N100, the cognitive processor from N100 to P300, and the decision-action processor from P300 to response. Using our model, an application system which reflects brain activity can be established.

Keywords: Brain activity, EEG, information processing model, model human processor.

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14937 Cumulative Learning based on Dynamic Clustering of Hierarchical Production Rules(HPRs)

Authors: Kamal K.Bharadwaj, Rekha Kandwal

Abstract:

An important structuring mechanism for knowledge bases is building clusters based on the content of their knowledge objects. The objects are clustered based on the principle of maximizing the intraclass similarity and minimizing the interclass similarity. Clustering can also facilitate taxonomy formation, that is, the organization of observations into a hierarchy of classes that group similar events together. Hierarchical representation allows us to easily manage the complexity of knowledge, to view the knowledge at different levels of details, and to focus our attention on the interesting aspects only. One of such efficient and easy to understand systems is Hierarchical Production rule (HPRs) system. A HPR, a standard production rule augmented with generality and specificity information, is of the following form Decision If < condition> Generality Specificity . HPRs systems are capable of handling taxonomical structures inherent in the knowledge about the real world. In this paper, a set of related HPRs is called a cluster and is represented by a HPR-tree. This paper discusses an algorithm based on cumulative learning scenario for dynamic structuring of clusters. The proposed scheme incrementally incorporates new knowledge into the set of clusters from the previous episodes and also maintains summary of clusters as Synopsis to be used in the future episodes. Examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed scheme. The suggested incremental structuring of clusters would be useful in mining data streams.

Keywords: Cumulative learning, clustering, data mining, hierarchical production rules.

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14936 Skills Development: The Active Learning Model of a French Computer Science Institute

Authors: N. Paparisteidi, D. Rodamitou

Abstract:

This article focuses on the skills development and path planning of students studying computer science at EPITECH: French private institute of higher education. We examine students’ points of view and experience in a blended learning model based on a skills development curriculum. The study is based on the collection of four main categories of data: semi-participant observation, distribution of questionnaires, interviews, and analysis of internal school databases. The findings seem to indicate that a skills-based program on active learning enables students to develop their learning strategies as well as their personal skills and to actively engage in the creation of their career path and contribute to providing additional information to curricula planners and decision-makers about learning design in higher education.

Keywords: Active learning, blended learning, higher education, skills development.

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14935 Computing Transition Intensity Using Time-Homogeneous Markov Jump Process: Case of South African HIV/AIDS Disposition

Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, Epidemiological model, Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process, Transition Probability, Statistics South Africa.

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14934 Artificial Neural Network Modeling and Genetic Algorithm Based Optimization of Hydraulic Design Related to Seepage under Concrete Gravity Dams on Permeable Soils

Authors: Muqdad Al-Juboori, Bithin Datta

Abstract:

Hydraulic structures such as gravity dams are classified as essential structures, and have the vital role in providing strong and safe water resource management. Three major aspects must be considered to achieve an effective design of such a structure: 1) The building cost, 2) safety, and 3) accurate analysis of seepage characteristics. Due to the complexity and non-linearity relationships of the seepage process, many approximation theories have been developed; however, the application of these theories results in noticeable errors. The analytical solution, which includes the difficult conformal mapping procedure, could be applied for a simple and symmetrical problem only. Therefore, the objectives of this paper are to: 1) develop a surrogate model based on numerical simulated data using SEEPW software to approximately simulate seepage process related to a hydraulic structure, 2) develop and solve a linked simulation-optimization model based on the developed surrogate model to describe the seepage occurring under a concrete gravity dam, in order to obtain optimum and safe design at minimum cost. The result shows that the linked simulation-optimization model provides an efficient and optimum design of concrete gravity dams.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, concrete gravity dam, genetic algorithm, seepage analysis.

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14933 Construct the Fur Input Mixed Model with Activity-Based Benefit Assessment Approach of Leather Industry

Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng

Abstract:

Leather industry is the most important traditional industry to provide the leather products in the world for thousand years. The fierce global competitive environment and common awareness of global carbon reduction make livestock supply quantities falling, salt and wet blue leather material reduces and the price skyrockets significantly. Exchange rate fluctuation led sales revenue decreasing which due to the differences of export exchanges and compresses the overall profitability of leather industry. This paper applies activity-based benefit assessment approach to build up fitness fur input mixed model, fur is Wet Blue, which concerned with four key factors: the output rate of wet blue, unit cost of wet blue, yield rate and grade level of Wet Blue to achieve the low cost strategy under given unit price of leather product condition of the company. The research findings indicate that applying this model may improve the input cost structure, decrease numbers of leather product inventories and to raise the competitive advantages of the enterprise in the future.

Keywords: Activity-Based Benefit Assessment Approach, Input mixed, Output Rate, Wet Blue.

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14932 A New Categorization of Image Quality Metrics Based On a Model of Human Quality Perception

Authors: Maria Grazia Albanesi, Riccardo Amadeo

Abstract:

This study presents a new model of the human image quality assessment process: the aim is to highlightthe foundations of the image quality metrics proposed in literature, by identifyingthe cognitive/physiological or mathematical principles of their development and the relation with the actual human quality assessment process. The model allows to createa novel categorization of objective and subjective image quality metrics. Our work includes an overview of the most used or effectiveobjective metrics in literature, and, for each of them, we underline its main characteristics, with reference to the rationale of the proposed model and categorization. From the results of this operation, we underline a problem that affects all the presented metrics: the fact that many aspects of human biasesare not taken in account at all. We then propose a possible methodology to address this issue.

Keywords: Eye-Tracking, image quality assessment metric, MOS, quality of user experience, visual perception.

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14931 Constructing a Fuzzy Net Present Value Method to Evaluating the BOT Sport Facilities

Authors: Huei-Fu Lu

Abstract:

This paper is to develop a fuzzy net present value (FNPV) method by taking vague cash flow and imprecise required rate of return into account for evaluating the value of the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) sport facilities. In order to clearly manifest a more realistic capital budgeting model based on the classical net present value (NPV) method, some uncertain financial elements in NPV formula will be fuzzified as triangular fuzzy numbers. Through the conscientious manipulation of fuzzy set theory, we will find that the proposed FNPV model is a more explicit extension of classical (crisp) model and could be more practicable for the financial managers to capture the essence of capital budgeting of sport facilities than non-fuzzy model.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets; Capital budgeting, Sport facility, Net present value (NPV), Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme

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14930 Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation Technique Based Design and Simulation of a Three-Phase Voltage Source Converter Systems

Authors: Farhan Beg

Abstract:

A Space Vector based Pulse Width Modulation control technique for the three-phase PWM converter is proposed in this paper. The proposed control scheme is based on a synchronous reference frame model. High performance and efficiency is obtained with regards to the DC bus voltage and the power factor considerations of the PWM rectifier thus leading to low losses. MATLAB/SIMULINK are used as a platform for the simulations and a SIMULINK model is presented in the paper. The results show that the proposed model demonstrates better performance and properties compared to the traditional SPWM method and the method improves the dynamic performance of the closed loop drastically. For the Space Vector based Pulse Width Modulation, Sine signal is the reference waveform and triangle waveform is the carrier waveform. When the value sine signal is large than triangle signal, the pulse will start produce to high. And then when the triangular signals higher than sine signal, the pulse will come to low. SPWM output will changed by changing the value of the modulation index and frequency used in this system to produce more pulse width. The more pulse width produced, the output voltage will have lower harmonics contents and the resolution increase.

Keywords: Power Factor, SVPWM, PWM rectifier, SPWM.

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14929 Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model

Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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14928 Statistical Properties and Performance of Ecological Indices Based On Relative Abundances

Authors: Gebriel M. Shamia

Abstract:

The Improved Generalized Diversity Index (IGDI) has been proposed as a tool that can be used to identify areas that have high conservation value and measure the ecological condition of an area. IGDI is based on the species relative abundances. This paper is concerned with particular attention is given to comparisons involving the MacArthur model of species abundances. The properties and performance of various species indices were assessed. Both IGDI and species richness increased with sampling area according to a power function. IGDI were also found to be acceptable ecological indicators of conditions and consistently outperformed coefficient of conservatism indices.

Keywords: Statistical ecology, MacArthur model, Functional Diversity.

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14927 Biodiesel from Coconut Oil: A Renewable Alternative Fuel for Diesel Engine

Authors: Md A. Hossain, Shabab M. Chowdhury, Yamin Rekhu, Khandakar S. Faraz, Monzur Ul Islam

Abstract:

With the growth of modern civilization and industrialization in worldwide, the demand for energy is increasing day by day. Majority of the world-s energy needs are met through fossil fuels and natural gas. As a result the amount of fossil fuels is on diminishing from year to year. Since the fossil fuel is nonrenewable, so fuel price is gouging as a consequence of spiraling demand and diminishing supply. At present the power generation of our country is mainly depends on imported fossil fuels. To reduce the dependency on imported fuel, the use of renewable sources has become more popular. In Bangladesh coconut is widely growing tree. Especially in the southern part of the country a large area will be found where coconut tree is considered as natural asset. So, our endeavor was to use the coconut oil as a renewable and alternative fuel. This article shows the prospect of coconut oil as a renewable and alternative fuel of diesel fuel. Since diesel engine has a versatile uses including small electricity generation, an experimental set up is then made to study the performance of a small diesel engine using different blends of bio diesel converted from coconut oil. It is found that bio diesel has slightly different properties than diesel. With biodiesel the engine is capable of running without difficulty. Different blends of bio diesel (i.e. B80, B60, and B 50 etc.) have been used to avoid complicated modification of the engine or the fuel supply system. Finally, a comparison of engine performance for different blends of biodiesel has been carried out to determine the optimum blend for different operating conditions.

Keywords: Biodiesel, Bio-fuel, Renewable Energy, Transesterification

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14926 Challenges and Opportunities of Cloud-Based E-Learning Systems

Authors: Kashif Laeeq, Zubair A. Shaikh

Abstract:

The paradigm of education is drastically changing from conventional to e-learning model. Due to ease of learning with various other benefits, several educational institutions are adopting the e-learning models. Some institutions are still willing to transform their educational system on to e-learning, but due to limited resources, they are still compromising on the old traditional system. The cloud computing could be one of the best solutions to overcome this problem by providing hardware, software, and infrastructure resources with cost efficient manner. The adoption of cloud computing in education will bring revolution in this paradigm. This paper introduces various positive features of e-learning and presents a way how cloud computing technology can be provisioned e-learning model. This paper also investigates the numerous challenges and opportunities that would be observed in cloud computing adoption in e-learning domain. The concept and knowledge present in this paper may create a new direction of research in the domain of cloud-based e-learning.

Keywords: Cloud-based e-learning, e-learning, cloud computing application, smart learning.

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14925 AGENTMAP: A Conceptual Meta-Model of Interacting Simulations

Authors: Thomas M. Prinz Wilhelm R. Rossak, Kai Gebhardt

Abstract:

A straightforward and intuitive combination of single simulations into an aggregated master-simulation is not trivial. There are lots of problems, which trigger-specific difficulties during the modeling and execution of such a simulation. In this paper we identify these problems and aim to solve them by mapping the task to the field of multi agent systems. The solution is a new meta-model named AGENTMAP, which is able to mitigate most of the problems and to support intuitive modeling at the same time. This meta-model will be introduced and explained on basis of an example from the e-commerce domain.

Keywords: Multi Agent System, Agent-based Simulation, Distributed Systems, Meta-models.

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14924 Performing Diagnosis in Building with Partially Valid Heterogeneous Tests

Authors: Houda Najeh, Mahendra Pratap Singh, Stéphane Ploix, Antoine Caucheteux, Karim Chabir, Mohamed Naceur Abdelkrim

Abstract:

Building system is highly vulnerable to different kinds of faults and human misbehaviors. Energy efficiency and user comfort are directly targeted due to abnormalities in building operation. The available fault diagnosis tools and methodologies particularly rely on rules or pure model-based approaches. It is assumed that model or rule-based test could be applied to any situation without taking into account actual testing contexts. Contextual tests with validity domain could reduce a lot of the design of detection tests. The main objective of this paper is to consider fault validity when validate the test model considering the non-modeled events such as occupancy, weather conditions, door and window openings and the integration of the knowledge of the expert on the state of the system. The concept of heterogeneous tests is combined with test validity to generate fault diagnoses. A combination of rules, range and model-based tests known as heterogeneous tests are proposed to reduce the modeling complexity. Calculation of logical diagnoses coming from artificial intelligence provides a global explanation consistent with the test result. An application example shows the efficiency of the proposed technique: an office setting at Grenoble Institute of Technology.

Keywords: Heterogeneous tests, validity, building system, sensor grids, sensor fault, diagnosis, fault detection and isolation.

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14923 Replicating Brain’s Resting State Functional Connectivity Network Using a Multi-Factor Hub-Based Model

Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

Abstract:

The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: Functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity.

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14922 Normalizing Logarithms of Realized Volatility in an ARFIMA Model

Authors: G. L. C. Yap

Abstract:

Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Long-memory, Gaussian process, Whittle estimator, normalization, volatility, value-at-risk.

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14921 A Comparison of Grey Model and Fuzzy Predictive Model for Time Series

Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

Abstract:

The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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14920 Assessment of Landslide Volume for Alishan Highway Based On Database of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

Authors: Yun-Yao Chi, Ya-Fen Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, a study of slope failures along the Alishan Highway is carried out. An innovative empirical model is developed based on 15-year records of rainfall-induced slope failures. The statistical models are intended for assessing the volume of landslide for slope failure along the Alishan Highway in the future. The rainfall data considered in the proposed models include the effective cumulative rainfall and the critical rainfall intensity. The effective cumulative rainfall is defined at the point when the curve of cumulative rainfall goes from steep to flat. Then, the rainfall thresholds of landslide are established for assessing the volume of landslide and issuing warning and/or closure for the Alishan Highway during a future extreme rainfall. Slope failures during Typhoon Saola in 2012 demonstrate that the new empirical model is effective and applicable to other cases with similar rainfall conditions.

Keywords: Slope failure, landslide, volume, model, rainfall thresholds.

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14919 Development of Risk Assessment and Occupational Safety Management Model for Building Construction Projects

Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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14918 Meta Random Forests

Authors: Praveen Boinee, Alessandro De Angelis, Gian Luca Foresti

Abstract:

Leo Breimans Random Forests (RF) is a recent development in tree based classifiers and quickly proven to be one of the most important algorithms in the machine learning literature. It has shown robust and improved results of classifications on standard data sets. Ensemble learning algorithms such as AdaBoost and Bagging have been in active research and shown improvements in classification results for several benchmarking data sets with mainly decision trees as their base classifiers. In this paper we experiment to apply these Meta learning techniques to the random forests. We experiment the working of the ensembles of random forests on the standard data sets available in UCI data sets. We compare the original random forest algorithm with their ensemble counterparts and discuss the results.

Keywords: Random Forests [RF], ensembles, UCI.

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14917 Designing a Model for Preparing Reports on the Automatic Earned Value Management Progress by the Integration of Primavera P6, SQL Database, and Power BI: A Case Study of a Six-Storey Concrete Building in Mashhad, Iran

Authors: Hamed Zolfaghari, Mojtaba Kord

Abstract:

Project planners and controllers are frequently faced with the challenge of inadequate software for the preparation of automatic project progress reports based on actual project information updates. They usually make dashboards in Microsoft Excel, which is local and not applicable online. Another shortcoming is that Microsoft project does not store the data in database, so the data cannot automatically be imported from Microsoft Project into Microsoft Excel. This study aimed to propose a model for the preparation of reports on automatic online project progress based on actual project information updates by the integration of Primavera P6, SQL database, and Power BI (Business Intelligence) for a construction project. The designed model could be applicable to project planners and controller agents by enabling them to prepare project reports automatically and immediately after updating the project schedule using actual information. To develop the model, the data were entered into P6, and the information was stored on the SQL database. The proposed model could prepare a wide range of reports, such as earned value management, Human Resource (HR) reports, and financial, physical, and risk reports automatically on the Power BI application. Furthermore, the reports could be published and shared online.

Keywords: Primavera P6, SQL, Power BI, Earned Value Management, Integration Management.

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14916 Application of the Neural Network to the Synthesis of Multibeam Antennas Arrays

Authors: Ridha Ghayoula, Mbarek Traii, Ali Gharsallah

Abstract:

In this paper, we intend to study the synthesis of the multibeam arrays. The synthesis implementation-s method for this type of arrays permits to approach the appropriated radiance-s diagram. The used approach is based on neural network that are capable to model the multibeam arrays, consider predetermined general criteria-s, and finally it permits to predict the appropriated diagram from the neural model. Our main contribution in this paper is the extension of a synthesis model of these multibeam arrays.

Keywords: Multibeam, modelling, neural networks, synthesis, antennas.

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