Search results for: Time varying regression

Authors: Christian Doppler, Gernot Hirschl, Gerhard Zsiga

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Starting in 2020, an EU-wide CO2-limitation of 95 g/km is scheduled for the average of an OEMs passenger car fleet. Taking that into consideration additional improvement measures of the Diesel cycle are necessary in order to reduce fuel consumption and emissions while boosting, or at the least, keeping performance values at the same time. The present article deals with the possibilities of an optimized air/water charge air cooler, also called iCAC (indirect Charge Air Cooler) for a Diesel passenger car amongst extreme-boundary conditions. In this context, the precise objective was to show the impact of improved intercooling with reference to the engine working process (fuel consumption and NOx-emissions). Several extremeboundaries - e.g. varying ambient temperatures or mountainous routes - that will become very important in the near future regarding RDE (Real Driving emissions) were subject of the investigation. With the introduction of RDE in 2017 (EU6c measure), the controversial NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) will belong to the past and the OEMs will have to avoid harmful emissions in any conceivable real life situation. This is certainly going to lead to optimization-measurements at the powertrain, which again is going to make the implementation of iCACs, presently solely used for the premium class, more and more attractive for compact class cars. The investigations showed a benefit in FC between 1 and 3% for the iCAC in real world conditions.

Keywords: Air/Water-Charge Air Cooler, Co-Simulation, Diesel Working Process, EURO VI Fuel Consumption.

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Authors: Zohreh O. Akbari

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In this paper a deterministic polynomial-time algorithm is presented for the Clique problem. The case is considered as the problem of omitting the minimum number of vertices from the input graph so that none of the zeroes on the graph-s adjacency matrix (except the main diagonal entries) would remain on the adjacency matrix of the resulting subgraph. The existence of a deterministic polynomial-time algorithm for the Clique problem, as an NP-complete problem will prove the equality of P and NP complexity classes.

Keywords: Clique problem, Deterministic Polynomial-time Algorithm, Equality of P and NP Complexity Classes.

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Authors: Nyan Phyo Aung, Zaw Min Naing, Hla Myo Tun

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The paper presents a PD controller for the Networked Control Systems (NCS) with delay. The major challenges in this networked control system (NCS) are the delay of the data transmission throughout the communication network. The comparative performance analysis is carried out for different delays network medium. In this paper, simulation is carried out on Ac servo motor control system using CAN Bus as communication network medium. The True Time toolbox of MATLAB is used for simulation to analyze the effect of different delays.

Keywords: NCS, Time delay, CAN Bus, True time, MATLAB.

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Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.

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Authors: Sukrit Shankar, Chetana Shanta Patsa, Jaydev Sharma

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Fractional Fourier Transform is a generalization of the classical Fourier Transform which is often symbolized as the rotation in time- frequency plane. Similar to the product of time and frequency span which provides the Uncertainty Principle for the classical Fourier domain, there has not been till date an Uncertainty Principle for the Fractional Fourier domain for a generalized class of finite energy signals. Though the lower bound for the product of time and Fractional Fourier span is derived for the real signals, a tighter lower bound for a general class of signals is of practical importance, especially for the analysis of signals containing chirps. We hence formulate a mathematical derivation that gives the lower bound of time and Fractional Fourier span product. The relation proves to be utmost importance in taking the Fractional Fourier Transform with adaptive time and Fractional span resolutions for a varied class of complex signals.

Keywords: Fractional Fourier Transform, uncertainty principle, Fractional Fourier Span, amplitude, phase.

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Authors: Peng Zhang, Lihui Zheng, Xiangchun Wang, Xiaopan Kou

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Quantitative research on the main control factors of lost circulation has few considerations and single data source. Using Unmanned Intervention Algorithm to find the main control factors of lost circulation adopts all measurable parameters. The degree of lost circulation is characterized by the loss rate as the objective function. Geological, engineering and fluid data are used as layers, and 27 factors such as wellhead coordinates and Weight on Bit (WOB) used as dimensions. Data classification is implemented to determine function independent variables. The mathematical equation of loss rate and 27 influencing factors is established by multiple regression method, and the undetermined coefficient method is used to solve the undetermined coefficient of the equation. Only three factors in t-test are greater than the test value 40, and the F-test value is 96.557%, indicating that the correlation of the model is good. The funnel viscosity, final shear force and drilling time were selected as the main control factors by elimination method, contribution rate method and functional method. The calculated values of the two wells used for verification differ from the actual values by -3.036 m3/h and -2.374 m3/h, with errors of 7.21% and 6.35%. The influence of engineering factors on the loss rate is greater than that of funnel viscosity and final shear force, and the influence of the three factors is less than that of geological factors. The best combination of funnel viscosity, final shear force and drilling time is obtained through quantitative calculation. The minimum loss rate of lost circulation wells in Shunbei area is 10 m3/h. It can be seen that man-made main control factors can only slow down the leakage, but cannot fundamentally eliminate it. This is more in line with the characteristics of karst caves and fractures in Shunbei fault solution oil and gas reservoir.

Keywords: Drilling fluid, loss rate, main controlling factors, Unmanned Intervention Algorithm.

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Authors: Mohamed M. M. Elnasharty, Azhar M. Elwan

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Irradiation deposits energy through ionisation changing the bio-system’s net dipole, allowing the use of dielectric parameters and thermodynamic state functions related to these parameters as biophysical detectors to electrical inhomogeneity within the biosystem. This part is concerned with the effect of Moringa leaves extract, natural supplement, on the response of the biosystem to two different dose rates of irradiation. Having Hb molecule as a representative to the biosystem to be least invasive to the biosystem, dielectric measurements were used to extract the relaxation time of certain process found in the Hb spectrum within the indicated frequency window and the interrelated thermodynamic state functions were calculated from the deduced relaxation time. The results showed that relaxation time was decreased for both dose rates indicating a strong influence of Moringa on the response of biosystem and consequently Hb molecule. This influence was presented in the relaxation time and other parameters as well.

Keywords: Activation energy, DC conductivity, dielectric relaxation, enthalpy change, moringa leaves extract, relaxation time.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Health and Social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges, due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven approaches can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms that assist healthcare managers to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), and Logistic Regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared and Student’s test are used on data over a 39 years span for which data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are associated using probabilities and are parts of statistical hypotheses. These hypotheses, as their NULL part, assume that the target demand is statistically dependent on other services’ demands. This linking is checked using the data. In addition, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus, groups of services. Statistical tests confirmed ML coupling and made the prediction statistically meaningful and proved that a target service can be matched reliably to other services while ML showed that such marked relationships can also be linear ones. Zero padding was used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and for the entire span offering long-term data visualizations while limited years periods explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods of time or that they can change over time as opposed to behaviours across more years. The prediction performance of the associations were measured using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC) and Accuracy (ACC) as well as the statistical tests Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for the RF, CART, and LGR methods as well as the p-value from tests and Information Exchange (IE/MIE) measures are provided showing the relative performance of ML methods and of the statistical tests as well as the behaviour using different learning ratios. The impact of k-neighbours classification (k-NN), Cross-Correlation (CC) and C-Means (CM) first groupings was also studied over limited years and for the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC = 0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912 showing that ML methods can be confused by zero-padding or by data’s irregularities or by the outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing well RF and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only when a significance level (p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, low birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found  that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited duration, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed by using statistical hypotheses.

Keywords: Class, cohorts, data frames, grouping, prediction, probabilities, services.

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Authors: A. Soualem

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The design of multi stage deep drawing processes requires the evaluation of many process parameters such as the intermediate die geometry, the blank shape, the sheet thickness, the blank holder force, friction, lubrication etc..These process parameters have to be determined for the optimum forming conditions before the process design. In general sheet metal forming may involve stretching drawing or various combinations of these basic modes of deformation. It is important to determine the influence of the process variables in the design of sheet metal working process. Especially, the punch and die corner for deep drawing will affect the formability. At the same time the prediction of sheet metals springback after deep drawing is an important issue to solve for the control of manufacturing processes. Nowadays, the importance of this problem increases because of the use of steel sheeting with high stress and also aluminum alloys.

The aim of this paper is to give a better understanding of the springback and its effect in various sheet metals forming process such as expansion and restreint deep drawing in the cup drawing process, by varying radius die, lubricant for two commercially available materials e.g. galvanized steel and Aluminum sheet. To achieve these goals experiments were carried out and compared with other results. The original of our purpose consist on tests which are ensured by adapting a U-type stretching-bending device on a tensile testing machine, where we studied and quantified the variation of the springback.

Keywords: Deep drawing, Expansion, Restreint deep drawing, Springback.

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Authors: Hadi Gholizadeh, Ali Tajdin

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To have effective production planning, it is necessary to control the quality of processes. This paper aims at improving the performance of the disposable essentials process using statistical quality control and goal programming in a vague environment. That is expressed uncertainty because there is always a measurement error in the real world. Therefore, in this study, the conditions are examined in a vague environment that is a distance-based environment. The disposable essentials process in Kach Company was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for four factor responses including the average of disposable glasses’ weights, heights, crater diameters, and volumes. Goal programming was then utilized to find the combination of optimal factors setting in a vague environment which is measured to apply uncertainty of the initial information when some of the parameters of the models are vague; also, the fuzzy regression model is used to predict the responses of the four described factors. Optimization results show that the process capability index values for disposable glasses’ average of weights, heights, crater diameters and volumes were improved. Such increasing the quality of the products and reducing the waste, which will reduce the cost of the finished product, and ultimately will bring customer satisfaction, and this satisfaction, will mean increased sales.

Keywords: Goal programming, quality control, vague environment, disposable glasses’ optimization, fuzzy regression.

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Authors: M. Palanivel, R. Uthayakumar

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In this paper, Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) based model for non-instantaneous Weibull distribution deteriorating items with power demand pattern is presented. In this model, the holding cost per unit of the item per unit time is assumed to be an increasing linear function of time spent in storage. Here the retailer is allowed a trade-credit offer by the supplier to buy more items. Also in this model, shortages are allowed and partially backlogged. The backlogging rate is dependent on the waiting time for the next replenishment. This model aids in minimizing the total inventory cost by finding the optimal time interval and finding the optimal order quantity. The optimal solution of the model is illustrated with the help of numerical examples. Finally sensitivity analysis and graphical representations are given to demonstrate the model.

Keywords: Power demand pattern, Partial backlogging, Time dependent holding cost, Trade credit, Weibull deterioration.

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Authors: Dongliang Wang, Jun Han, Dianfu Ma, Xianqi Zhao

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Avionics software is safe-critical embedded software and its architecture is evolving from traditional federated architectures to Integrated Modular Avionics (IMA) to improve resource usability. ARINC 653 (Avionics Application Standard Software Interface) is a software specification for space and time partitioning in Safety-critical avionics Real-time operating systems. Arinc653 uses two-level scheduling strategies, but current modeling tools only apply to simple problems of Arinc653 two-level scheduling, which only contain time property. In avionics industry, we are always manually allocating tasks and calculating the timing table of a real-time system to ensure it-s running as we design. In this paper we represent an automatically generating strategy which applies to the two scheduling problems with dependent constraints in Arinc653 partition run-time environment. It provides the functionality of automatic generation from the task and partition models to scheduling policy through allocating the tasks to the partitions while following the constraints, and then we design a simulating mechanism to check whether our policy is schedulable or not

Keywords: Arinc653, scheduling, task allocation, simulation.

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Authors: Sony P. Aquino, Helen F. Gavino, Victorino T. Taylan, Teresito G. Aguinaldo

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A simple mobile engine-driven pneumatic paddy collector made of locally available materials using local manufacturing technology was designed, fabricated, and tested for collecting and bagging of paddy dried on concrete pavement. The pneumatic paddy collector had the following major components: radial flat bladed type centrifugal fan, power transmission system, bagging area, frame and the conveyance system. Results showed significant differences on the collecting capacity, noise level, and fuel consumption when rotational speed of the air mover shaft was varied. Other parameters such as collecting efficiency, air velocity, augmented cracked grain percentage, and germination rate were not significantly affected by varying rotational speed of the air mover shaft. The pneumatic paddy collector had a collecting efficiency of 99.33 % with a collecting capacity of 2685.00 kg/h at maximum rotational speed of centrifugal fan shaft of about 4200 rpm. The machine entailed an investment cost of P 62,829.25. The break-even weight of paddy was 510,606.75 kg/yr at a collecting cost of 0.11 P/kg of paddy. Utilizing the machine for 400 hours per year generated an income of P 23,887.73. The projected time needed to recover cost of the machine based on 2685 kg/h collecting capacity was 2.63 year.

Keywords: Mobile engine-driven pneumatic paddy collector, collecting capacity and efficiency, simple cost analysis.

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Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

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The objective of this research was to study the influence of marketing mix on customers purchasing behavior. A total of 397 respondents were collected from customers who were the patronages of the Chatuchak Plaza market. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. Data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were male with the age between 25-34 years old, hold undergraduate degree, married and stay together. The average income of respondents was between 10,001-20,000 baht. In terms of occupation, the majority worked for private companies. The research analysis disclosed that there were three variables of marketing mix which included price (X2), place (X3), and product (X1) which had an influence on the frequency of customer purchasing. These three variables can predict a purchase about 30 percent of the time by using the equation; Y1 = 6.851 + .921(X2) + .949(X3) + .591(X1). It also found that in terms of marketing mixed, there were two variables had an influence on the amount of customer purchasing which were physical characteristic (X6), and the process (X7). These two variables are 17 percent predictive of a purchasing by using the equation: Y2 = 2276.88 + 2980.97(X6) + 2188.09(X7).

Keywords: Influences, Marketing Mixed, Purchasing Behavior.

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Authors: Fajaruddin Mustakim, Motohiro Fujita

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This paper present the study carried out of accident analysis, black spot study and to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected at rural roadway, Federal Route 50 (F050) Malaysia. The road accident trends and black spot ranking were established on the F050. The development of the accident prediction model will concentrate in Parit Raja area from KM 19 to KM 23. Multiple non-linear regression method was used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variable. The dependent variable was modeled as the number of crashes namely accident point weighting, however accident point weighting have rarely been account in the road accident prediction Models. The result show that, the existing number of major access points, without traffic light, rise in speed, increasing number of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), growing number of motorcycle and motorcar and reducing the time gap are the potential contributors of increment accident rates on multiple rural roadway.

Keywords: Accident Trends, Black Spot Study, Accident Prediction Model

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Authors: Alexander Kaplunovsky, Vladimir Khailenko, Alexander Bolshoy, Shara Atambayeva, AnatoliyIvashchenko

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Eukaryotic protein-coding genes are interrupted by spliceosomal introns, which are removed from the RNA transcripts before translation into a protein. The exon-intron structures of different eukaryotic species are quite different from each other, and the evolution of such structures raises many questions. We try to address some of these questions using statistical analysis of whole genomes. We go through all the protein-coding genes in a genome and study correlations between the net length of all the exons in a gene, the number of the exons, and the average length of an exon. We also take average values of these features for each chromosome and study correlations between those averages on the chromosomal level. Our data show universal features of exon-intron structures common to animals, plants, and protists (specifically, Arabidopsis thaliana, Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila melanogaster, Cryptococcus neoformans, Homo sapiens, Mus musculus, Oryza sativa, and Plasmodium falciparum). We have verified linear correlation between the number of exons in a gene and the length of a protein coded by the gene, while the protein length increases in proportion to the number of exons. On the other hand, the average length of an exon always decreases with the number of exons. Finally, chromosome clustering based on average chromosome properties and parameters of linear regression between the number of exons in a gene and the net length of those exons demonstrates that these average chromosome properties are genome-specific features.

Keywords: Comparative genomics, exon-intron structure, eukaryotic clustering, linear regression.

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Authors: N. Manavizadeh , M. Rabbani , H. Sotudian , F. Jolai

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Mixed Model Production is the practice of assembling several distinct and different models of a product on the same assembly line without changeovers and then sequencing those models in a way that smoothes the demand for upstream components. In this paper, we consider an objective function which minimizes total stoppage time and total idle time and it is presented sequence dependent set up time. Many studies have been done on the mixed model assembly lines. But in this paper we specifically focused on reducing the idle times. This is possible through various help policies. For improving the solutions, some cases developed and about 40 tests problem was considered. We use scatter search for optimization and for showing the efficiency of our algorithm, experimental results shows behavior of method. Scatter search and help policies can produce high quality answers, so it has been used in this paper.

Keywords: mixed model assembly lines, Scatter search, help policies, idle time, Stoppage time

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Authors: S. Golmohammadi, M. Noorian Bidgoli

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Tunneling progress is a key parameter in the blasting method of tunneling. Taking measures to enhance tunneling advance can limit the progress distance without a supporting system, subsequently reducing or eliminating the risk of damage. This paper focuses on modeling tunneling progress using three main groups of parameters (tunneling geometry, blasting pattern, and rock mass specifications) based on the Rock Engineering Systems (RES) methodology. In the proposed models, four main effective parameters on tunneling progress are considered as inputs (RMR, Q-system, Specific charge of blasting, Area), with progress as the output. Data from 86 blasts conducted at the tailrace tunnel in the Azad Dam, western Iran, were used to evaluate the progress value for each blast. The results indicated that, for the 86 blasts, the progress of the estimated model aligns mostly with the measured progress. This paper presents a method for building the interaction matrix (statistical base) of the RES model. Additionally, a comparison was made between the results of the new RES-based model and a Multi-Linear Regression (MLR) analysis model. In the RES-based model, the effective parameters are RMR (35.62%), Q (28.6%), q (specific charge of blasting) (20.35%), and A (15.42%), respectively, whereas for MLR analysis, the main parameters are RMR, Q (system), q, and A. These findings confirm the superior performance of the RES-based model over the other proposed models.

Keywords: Rock Engineering Systems, tunneling progress, Multi Linear Regression, Specific charge of blasting.

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Authors: Biao Qin, Jin Huang, Jiaojiao Ren, Wei Kang

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This paper deals with the problem of passivity analysis for stochastic neural networks with leakage, discrete and distributed delays. By using delay partitioning technique, free weighting matrix method and stochastic analysis technique, several sufficient conditions for the passivity of the addressed neural networks are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), in which both the time-delay and its time derivative can be fully considered. A numerical example is given to show the usefulness and effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: Passivity, Stochastic neural networks, Multiple time delays, Linear matrix inequalities (LMIs).

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Authors: M.Saleem Khan, Khaled Benkrid

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This paper presents a time control liquids mixing system in the tanks as an application of fuzzy time control discrete model. The system is designed for a wide range of industrial applications. The simulation design of control system has three inputs: volume, viscosity, and selection of product, along with the three external control adjustments for the system calibration or to take over the control of the system autonomously in local or distributed environment. There are four controlling elements: rotatory motor, grinding motor, heating and cooling units, and valves selection, each with time frame limit. The system consists of three controlled variables measurement through its sensing mechanism for feed back control. This design also facilitates the liquids mixing system to grind certain materials in tanks and mix with fluids under required temperature controlled environment to achieve certain viscous level. Design of: fuzzifier, inference engine, rule base, deffuzifiers, and discrete event control system, is discussed. Time control fuzzy rules are formulated, applied and tested using MATLAB simulation for the system.

Keywords: Fuzzy time control, industrial application and timecontrol systems, adjustment of Fuzzy system, liquids mixing system, design of fuzzy time control DEV system.

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Authors: A. M. Tahsini

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Computational study of two dimensional supersonic reacting hydrogen-air flows is performed to investigate the nitrogen effects on ignition delay time for premixed and diffusion flames. Chemical reaction is treated using detail kinetics and the advection upstream splitting method is used to calculate the numerical inviscid fluxes. The results show that just in stoichiometric condition for both premixed and diffusion flames, there is monotone dependency of the ignition delay time to the nitrogen addition. In other situations, the optimal condition from ignition viewpoint should be found using numerical investigations.

Keywords: Diffusion flame, Ignition delay time, Mixing layer, Numerical simulation, Premixed flame, Supersonic flow.

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Authors: Yuki Kondo, Takanori Nagano, Yuki Takeda, Young-Bok Choi, Hiromi Okada

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Optical burst switching(OBS) is considered as one of preferable network technologies for the next generation Internet. The Internet has two traffic classes, i.e. real-time bursts and reliable bursts. It is an important subject for OBS to achieve cooperated operation of real-time bursts and reliable bursts. In this paper, we proposes a new effective traffic control method named Separate TB+LB (Token Bucket + Leaky Bucket : TB+LB) method. The proposed method presents a new Token Bucket scheme for real-time bursts called as RBO-TB (Real-time Bursts Oriented Token Bucket). The method also applies the LB method to reliable bursts for obtaining better performance. This paper verifies the effectiveness of the Separate TB+LB method through the performance evaluation.

Keywords: leaky bucket, OBS, traffic control, token bucket.

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Chronologic age (CA) of individuals is closely related to obesity and generally affects the magnitude of obesity parameters. On the other hand, close association between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and metabolic age (MA) is also a matter of concern. It is suggested that MA higher than CA is the indicator of the need to improve the metabolic rate. In this study, the aim was to assess some commonly used obesity parameters, such as obesity degree, visceral adiposity, BMR, BMR-to-weight ratio, in several groups with varying differences between MA and CA values. The study comprises adults, whose ages vary between 18 and 79 years. Four groups were constituted. Group 1, 2, 3 and 4 were composed of 55, 33, 76 and 47 adults, respectively. The individuals exhibiting -1, 0 and +1 for their MA-CA values were involved in Group 1, which was considered as the control group. Those, whose MA-CA values varying between -5 and -10 participated in Group 2. Those, whose MAs above their real ages were divided into two groups [Group 3 (MA-CA; from +5 to + 10) and Group 4 (MA-CA; from +11 to + 12)]. Body mass index (BMI) values were calculated. TANITA body composition monitor using bioelectrical impedance analysis technology was used to obtain values for obesity degree, visceral adiposity, BMR and BMR-to-weight ratio. The compiled data were evaluated statistically using a statistical package program; SPSS. Mean ± SD values were determined. Correlation analyses were performed. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. The increase in BMR was positively correlated with obesity degree. MAs and CAs of the groups were 39.9 ± 16.8 vs 39.9 ± 16.7 years for Group 1, 45.0 ± 15.3 vs 51.4 ± 15.7 years for Group 2, 47.2 ± 12.7 vs 40.0 ± 12.7 years for Group 3, and 53.6 ± 14.8 vs 42 ± 14.8 years for Group 4. BMI values of the groups were 24.3 ± 3.6 kg/m², 23.2 ± 1.7 kg/m², 30.3 ± 3.8 kg/m², and 40.1 ± 5.1 kg/m² for Group 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Values obtained for BMR were 1599 ± 328 kcal in Group 1, 1463 ± 198 kcal in Group 2, 1652 ± 350 kcal in Group 3, and 1890 ± 360 kcal in Group 4. A correlation was observed between BMR and MA-CA values in Group 1. No correlation was detected in other groups. On the other hand, statistically significant correlations between MA-CA values and obesity degree, BMI as well as BMR/weight were found in Group 3 and in Group 4. It was concluded that upon consideration of these findings in terms of MA-CA values, BMR-to-weight ratio was found to be much more useful indicator of the severe increase in obesity development than BMR. Also, the lack of associations between MA and BMR as well as BMR-to-weight ratio emphasize the importance of consideration of MA-CA values rather than MA.

Keywords: Basal metabolic rate, chronologic age, metabolic age, obesity degree.

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Authors: Te Wen Tu, Sen Yung Lee

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An alternative approach is proposed to develop the analytic solution for one dimensional heat conduction with one mixed type boundary condition and general time-dependent heat transfer coefficient. In this study, the physic meaning of the solution procedure is revealed. It is shown that the shifting function takes the physic meaning of the reciprocal of Biot function in the initial time. Numerical results show the accuracy of this study. Comparing with those given in the existing literature, the difference is less than 0.3%.

Keywords: Analytic solution, heat transfer coefficient, shifting function method, time-dependent boundary condition.

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Authors: Jetsada Arnin, Yodchanan Wongsawat

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One of the most important causes of accidents is driver fatigue. To reduce the accidental rate, the driver needs a quick nap when feeling sleepy. Hence, searching for the minimum time period of nap is a very challenging problem. The purpose of this paper is twofold, i.e. to investigate the possible fastest time period for nap and its relationship with stage 2 sleep, and to develop an automatic stage 2 sleep detection and alarm device. The experiment for this investigation is designed with 21 subjects. It yields the result that waking up the subjects after getting into stage 2 sleep for 3-5 minutes can efficiently reduce the sleepiness. Furthermore, the automatic stage 2 sleep detection and alarm device yields the real-time detection accuracy of approximately 85% which is comparable with the commercial sleep lab system.

Keywords: Stage 2 sleep, nap, sleep detection, real-time, EEG

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Authors: Todsaporn Fuangrod, Daryl J. O'Connor, Boyd MC McCurdy, Peter B. Greer

Abstract:

An electronic portal image device (EPID) has become a method of patient-specific IMRT dose verification for radiotherapy. Research studies have focused on pre and post-treatment verification, however, there are currently no interventional procedures using EPID dosimetry that measure the dose in real time as a mechanism to ensure that overdoses do not occur and underdoses are detected as soon as is practically possible. As a result, an EPID-based real time dose verification system for dynamic IMRT was developed and was implemented with MATLAB/Simulink. The EPID image acquisition was set to continuous acquisition mode at 1.4 images per second. The system defined the time constraint gap, or execution gap at the image acquisition time, so that every calculation must be completed before the next image capture is completed. In addition, the <=-evaluation method was used for dose comparison, with two types of comparison processes; individual image and cumulative dose comparison monitored. The outputs of the system are the <=-map, the percent of <=<1, and mean-<= versus time, all in real time. Two strategies were used to test the system, including an error detection test and a clinical data test. The system can monitor the actual dose delivery compared with the treatment plan data or previous treatment dose delivery that means a radiation therapist is able to switch off the machine when the error is detected.

Keywords: real-time dose verification, EPID dosimetry, simulation, dynamic IMRT

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Authors: Hemani Kaushal, V.K.Jain, Subrat Kar

Abstract:

The performance of ground to deep space optical communication systems is degraded by distortion of the beam as it propagates through the turbulent atmosphere. Turbulence causes fluctuations in the intensity of the received signal which ultimately affects the acquisition time required to acquire and locate the spaceborne target using narrow laser beam. In this paper, performance of free-space optical (FSO) communication system in atmospheric turbulence has been analyzed in terms of acquisition time for coherent and non-coherent modulation schemes. Numerical results presented in graphical and tabular forms show that the acquisition time increases with the increase in turbulence level. This is true for both schemes. The BPSK has lowest acquisition time among all schemes. In non-coherent schemes, M-PPM performs better than the other schemes. With the increase in M, acquisition time becomes lower, but at the cost of increase in system complexity.

Keywords: Atmospheric Turbulence, Acquisition Time, BinaryPhase Shift Keying (BPSK), Free-Space Optical (FSO)Communication System, M-ary Pulse Position Modulation (M-PPM), Coherent/Non-coherent Modulation Schemes.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Rampal Singh, S. Balasundaram

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the application of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm for single layered feedforward neural networks to non-linear chaotic time series problems. In this algorithm the input weights and the hidden layer bias are randomly chosen. The ELM formulation leads to solving a system of linear equations in terms of the unknown weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer. The solution of this general system of linear equations will be obtained using Moore-Penrose generalized pseudo inverse. For the study of the application of the method we consider the time series generated by the Mackey Glass delay differential equation with different time delays, Santa Fe A and UCR heart beat rate ECG time series. For the choice of sigmoid, sin and hardlim activation functions the optimal values for the memory order and the number of hidden neurons which give the best prediction performance in terms of root mean square error are determined. It is observed that the results obtained are in close agreement with the exact solution of the problems considered which clearly shows that ELM is a very promising alternative method for time series prediction.

Keywords: Chaotic time series, Extreme learning machine, Generalization performance.

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Authors: Bohsiu Wu

Abstract:

Among serious crimes, child homicide is a rather rare event. However, the killing of children stirs up a special type of emotion in society that pales other criminal acts. This study examines the relevancy of three possible community-level explanations for child homicide: social deprivation, female empowerment, and social isolation. The social deprivation hypothesis posits that child homicide results from lack of resources in communities. The female empowerment hypothesis argues that a higher female status translates into a higher level of capability to prevent child homicide. Finally, the social isolation hypothesis regards child homicide as a result of lack of social connectivity. Child homicide data, aggregated by US postal ZIP codes in California from 1990 to 1999, were analyzed with a negative binomial regression. The results of the negative binomial analysis demonstrate that social deprivation is the most salient and consistent predictor among all other factors in explaining child homicide victimization at the ZIP-code level. Both social isolation and female labor force participation are weak predictors of child homicide victimization across communities. Further, results from the negative binomial regression show that it is the communities with a higher, not lower, degree of female labor force participation that are associated with a higher count of child homicide. It is possible that poor communities with a higher level of female employment have a lesser capacity to provide the necessary care and protection for the children. Policies aiming at reducing social deprivation and strengthening female empowerment possess the potential to reduce child homicide in the community.

Keywords: Child homicide, deprivation, empowerment, isolation.

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