Search results for: decisions under uncertainty

Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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Authors: C. Sridawruang

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Young people today has sexual activities differing from those of earlier generations, in that teenagers are likely to have multiple partners, and are frequently in short-term relationships or with partners that are not well known to them. The proportion of teenage mothers in Thailand has increased. Young people were not specifically addressed during the overall very successful HIV-prevention campaigns. Because of this missed opportunity, they are still unaware of the risk of unsafe sexual behavior. Aims: To describe the reproductive health care services in perspectives of rural Thai teenagers Methods: This survey was one part of a mixed method approach taken using survey and focus groups with 439 teenagers aged 12-18 years in 5 villages, Udon Thani, Thailand. The standard questionnaire survey had been used for collecting data. The numeric data was checked and analyzed by using descriptive statistics. Results: Most teenager respondents stated that they do not know where sexual reproductive health services provided for them. Most teenagers felt difficult to access and talk with health staff about sexual related issues. They stated that discussing, or consulting with health providers might not be safe. Teenagers might lose opportunities to access and get advice from health care services. The mean knowledge score of contraception and condom reproductive was 6.34 from a total score 11. Most teenagers especially girls expressed a need for counseling services and reported a need for telephone services. Conclusions: The need of appropriate information focusing on sexual relationships and contraception should be designed to help young people make wise decisions and there should be set health care services for Thai teenagers to make sure that teenagers could access easily. Health care providers need to be trained to improve their knowledge, attitudes and skills in reproductive health care practices for Thai teenagers.

Keywords: Youth friendly health services, rural, Thai, teenagers.

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Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan

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Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.

Keywords: Border of the universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps.

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Authors: Mehmet Altınöz

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Organizational communication is an administrative function crucial especially for executives in the implementation of organizational and administrative functions. Executives spend a significant part of their time on communicative activities. Doing his or her daily routine, arranging meeting schedules, speaking on the telephone, reading or replying to business correspondence, or fulfilling the control functions within the organization, an executive typically engages in communication processes. Efficient communication is the principal device for the adequate implementation of administrative and organizational activities. For this purpose, management needs to specify the kind of communication system to be set up and the kind of communication devices to be used. Communication is vital for any organization. In conventional offices, communication takes place within the hierarchical pyramid called the organizational structure, and is known as formal or informal communication. Formal communication is the type that works in specified structures within the organizational rules and towards the organizational goals. Informal communication, on the other hand, is the unofficial type taking place among staff as face-to-face or telephone interaction. Communication in virtual as well as conventional offices is essential for obtaining the right information in administrative activities and decision-making. Virtual communication technologies increase the efficiency of communication especially in virtual teams. Group communication is strengthened through an inter-group central channel. Further, ease of information transmission makes it possible to reach the information at the source, allowing efficient and correct decisions. Virtual offices can present as a whole the elements of information which conventional offices produce in different environments. At present, virtual work has become a reality with its pros and cons, and will probably spread very rapidly in coming years, in line with the growth in information technologies.

Keywords: Organization, conventional office, virtual office, communication, communication model, communication functions, communication methods, vertical communication, linear communication, diagonal communication

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: Automatic calibration framework, approximate Bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform.

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Authors: M. A. Putera, N. Yasufuku, A. Alowaisy, R. Ishikura, J. G. Hussary, A. Rifa’i

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Indonesia’s government has planned a project for a high-speed railway connecting the capital cities, Jakarta and Surabaya, about 700 km. Based on that location, it has been planning construction above the lowland soil region. The lowland soil region comprises cohesive soil with high water content and high compressibility index, which in fact, led to a settlement problem. Among the variety of railway track structures, the adoption of the ballastless track was used effectively to reduce the settlement; it provided a lightweight structure and minimized workspace. Contradictorily, deploying this thin layer structure above the lowland area was compensated with several problems, such as lack of bearing capacity and deflection behavior during traffic loading. It is necessary to combine with ground improvement to assure a settlement behavior on the clayey soil. Reflecting on the assurance of strength increment and working period, those were convinced by adopting methods such as cement-treated soil as the substructure of railway track. Particularly, evaluating mechanical properties in the field has been well known by using the plate load test and cone penetration test. However, observing an increment of mechanical properties has uncertainty, especially for evaluating cement-treated soil on the substructure. The current quality control of cement-treated soils was established by laboratory tests. Moreover, using small strain devices measurement in the laboratory can predict more reliable results that are identical to field measurement tests. Aims of this research are to show an intercorrelation of confining pressure with the initial condition of the Young’s modulus (E0), Poisson ratio (υ0) and Shear modulus (G0) within small strain ranges. Furthermore, discrepancies between those parameters were also investigated. Experimental result confirmed the intercorrelation between cement content and confining pressure with a power function. In addition, higher cement ratios have discrepancies, conversely with low mixing ratios.

Keywords: Cement content, confining pressure, high-speed railway, small strain ranges.

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Authors: Florin Pop

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Simulation is a very powerful method used for highperformance and high-quality design in distributed system, and now maybe the only one, considering the heterogeneity, complexity and cost of distributed systems. In Grid environments, foe example, it is hard and even impossible to perform scheduler performance evaluation in a repeatable and controllable manner as resources and users are distributed across multiple organizations with their own policies. In addition, Grid test-beds are limited and creating an adequately-sized test-bed is expensive and time consuming. Scalability, reliability and fault-tolerance become important requirements for distributed systems in order to support distributed computation. A distributed system with such characteristics is called dependable. Large environments, like Cloud, offer unique advantages, such as low cost, dependability and satisfy QoS for all users. Resource management in large environments address performant scheduling algorithm guided by QoS constrains. This paper presents the performance evaluation of scheduling heuristics guided by different optimization criteria. The algorithms for distributed scheduling are analyzed in order to satisfy users constrains considering in the same time independent capabilities of resources. This analysis acts like a profiling step for algorithm calibration. The performance evaluation is based on simulation. The simulator is MONARC, a powerful tool for large scale distributed systems simulation. The novelty of this paper consists in synthetic analysis results that offer guidelines for scheduler service configuration and sustain the empirical-based decision. The results could be used in decisions regarding optimizations to existing Grid DAG Scheduling and for selecting the proper algorithm for DAG scheduling in various actual situations.

Keywords: Scheduling, Simulation, Performance Evaluation, QoS, Distributed Systems, MONARC

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Authors: Kyoko Tominaga

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Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs), Social Enterprises and other actors play an important role in political decisions in governments at the international levels. Especially, such organizations’ and activists’ network in civil society is quite important to effect to the global politics. To solve the complex social problems in global era, diverse actors should corporate each other. Moreover, network of protesters is also contributes to diffuse tactics, information and other resources of social movements.

Based on the findings from the study of International Trade Fairs (ITFs), the author analyzes the network of activists in anti-globalism movement. This research focuses the transition of 54 activists’ whole network in the “protest event” against 2008 G8 summit in Japan. Their network is examined at the three periods: Before protest event phase, during protest event phase and after event phase. A mixed method is used in this study: the author shows the hypothesis from social network analysis and evaluates that with interview data analysis. This analysis gives the two results. Firstly, the more protesters participate to the various events during the protest event, the more they build the network. After that, active protesters keep their network as well. From interview data, we can understand that the active protesters can build their network and diffuse the information because they communicate with other participants and understand that diverse issues are related. This paper comes to same conclusion with previous researches: protest events activate the network among the political activists. However, some participants succeed to build their network, others do not. “Networked” activists are participated in the various events for short period of time and encourage the diffusion of information and tactics of social movements.

Keywords: Social Movement, Global Justice Movement, Tactics, Diffusion.

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Authors: U. Waqas, M. F. Ahmed, A. Mehmood, M. A. Rashid

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In geophysical exploration surveys, the quality of acquired data holds significant importance before executing the data processing and interpretation phases. In this study, 2D seismic reflection survey data of Fort Abbas area, Cholistan Desert, Pakistan was taken as test case in order to assess its quality on statistical bases by using normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Cronbach’s alpha test (α) and null hypothesis tests (t-test and F-test). The analysis challenged the quality of the acquired data and highlighted the significant errors in the acquired database. It is proven that the study area is plain, tectonically least affected and rich in oil and gas reserves. However, subsurface 3D modeling and contouring by using acquired database revealed high degrees of structural complexities and intense folding. The NRMSE had highest percentage of residuals between the estimated and predicted cases. The outcomes of hypothesis testing also proved the biasness and erraticness of the acquired database. Low estimated value of alpha (α) in Cronbach’s alpha test confirmed poor reliability of acquired database. A very low quality of acquired database needs excessive static correction or in some cases, reacquisition of data is also suggested which is most of the time not feasible on economic grounds. The outcomes of this study could be used to assess the quality of large databases and to further utilize as a guideline to establish database quality assessment models to make much more informed decisions in hydrocarbon exploration field.

Keywords: Data quality, null hypothesis, seismic lines, seismic reflection survey.

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Authors: Chan Eang Teng, Tang Mui Joo

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With the viral factor on social media, the sense of persuasion is generated by repetition and popularity. When users’ interest is captured, political awareness increases to spark political enthusiasm, but, the level of user’s political participation and political attitude of those active users is still questionable. An online survey on 250 youth and in-depth interview on two politicians are conducted to answer the main question in this paper. The result shows that Facebook significantly increases political awareness among youths. Social media may not be the major trigger to political activism among youths as most respondents opined that they would still vote without Facebook. Other factors could be political campaigning, political climate, age, peer pressure or others. Finding also shows that majority of respondents did not participate in online political debates or political groups. Many also wondered if the social media was the main power switch that triggers the political influx among young voters. The research finding is significant to understand how the new media, Facebook, has reshaped the political landscape in Malaysia, creating the Social Media Election that changed the rules of the political game. However, research finding does not support the ideal notion that the social media is the major trigger to youth’s political activism. This research outcome has exposed the flaws of the Social Media Election. It has revealed the less optimistic side of youth political activism. Unfortunately, results fall short of the idealistic belief that the social media have given rise to political activism among youths in the 13^th General Election in Malaysia. The research outcome also highlights an important lesson for the democratic discourse of Malaysia which is making informed and educated decisions takes more commitment, proactive and objective attitude.

Keywords: Social media, political participation, political activism, democracy, political communication.

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: Cascading hazards, multi-hazard, risk assessment, risk reduction.

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Authors: Shima Nikanjam, Badiossadat Hassanpour, Adi Irfan Che Ani

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The design process in architecture education is based upon the Learning-by-Doing method, which leads students to understand how to design by practicing rather than studying. First-year design studios, as starting educational stage, provide integrated knowledge and skills of design for newly jointed architecture students. Within the basic design studio environment, students are guided to transfer their abstract thoughts into visual concrete decisions under the supervision of design educators for the first time. Therefore, introductory design studios have predominant impacts on students’ operational thinking and designing. Architectural design thinking is quite different from students’ educational backgrounds and learning habits. This educational challenge at basic design studios creates a severe need to study the reality of design education at foundation year and define appropriate educational methods with convenient project types with the intention of enhancing architecture education quality. Material for this study has been gathered through long-term direct observation at a first year second semester design studio at the faculty of architecture at EMU (known as FARC 102), fall and spring academic semester 2014-15. Distribution of a questionnaire among case study students and interviews with third and fourth design studio students who passed through the same methods of education in the past 2 years and conducting interviews with instructors are other methodologies used in this research. The results of this study reveal a risk of a mismatch between the implemented teaching method, project type and scale in this particular level and students’ learning styles. Although the existence of such risk due to varieties in students’ profiles could be expected to some extent, recommendations can support educators to reach maximum compatibility.

Keywords: Architecture education, basic design studio, educational method, forms creation skill.

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Authors: S. A. A. Korori, H. Valipour K., S. Shabestani, A. shirvany, M. Matinizadeh

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Tehran, one of the heavily-populated capitals, is severely suffering from increasing air pollution. To show a documented trend of such pollutants during last years, plane tree species (Platanus orientalis) were suited to be studied as indicators, for the species have been planted throughout the city many years ago. Two areas (Saadatabad and Narmak districts) allotting different contents of crowed and highly-traffic routs but the same ecological characteristics were selected. Twelve sample individuals were cored twice perpendicularly in each area. Tree-rings of each core were measured by a binocular microscope and separated annually for the last 25 years. Two heavy metals including Cd and Pb accompanied by a mineral element (Ca) were analyzed using Hatch method. Treerings analysis of the two areas showed different groups in term of physiologically ability as the growths were plunged during the last 10 years in Saadatabad district and showed a slight decrease in the same period for another studying area. In direct contrast to decreasing growth trend in Saadatabad, all three mentioned elements increased sharply during last 25 years in the same area. When it came to Narmak district, the trend was completely different with Saadatabad. There were some fluctuations in absorbing trace elements like tree-rings widths were, yet calcium showed an upward trend all the last 25 years. The results of the study proved the possibility of using tree species of each region to monitor its air pollution trends of the past, hence to depict a pollution assessment of a populated city for last years and then to make appropriate decisions for the future as it is well-known what the trend is. On the other hand, risen values of calcium (as the stress-indicator element) accompanied by increased trace elements suggests non-sustainable state of the trees.

Keywords: Air pollution, Platanus orientalis, Tehran, Traceelements, Tree rings.

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Authors: G. S. Ayyappan, Srinivas Kota, Jaffer R. C. Sheriff, C. Prakash Chandra Joshua

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In the present scenario of energy crises, energy conservation in the electrical machines is very important in the industries. In order to conserve energy, one needs to monitor the performance of an induction motor on-site and in-situ. The instruments available for this purpose are very meager and very expensive. This paper deals with the design and development of induction motor performance analyser on-line, on-site, and in-situ. The system measures only few electrical input parameters like input voltage, line current, power factor, frequency, powers, and motor shaft speed. These measured data are coupled to name plate details and compute the operating efficiency of induction motor. This system employs the method of computing motor losses with the help of equivalent circuit parameters. The equivalent circuit parameters of the concerned motor are estimated using the developed algorithm at any load conditions and stored in the system memory. The developed instrument is a reliable, accurate, compact, rugged, and cost-effective one. This portable instrument could be used as a handy tool to study the performance of both slip ring and cage induction motors. During the analysis, the data can be stored in SD Memory card and one can perform various analyses like load vs. efficiency, torque vs. speed characteristics, etc. With the help of the developed instrument, one can operate the motor around its Best Operating Point (BOP). Continuous monitoring of the motor efficiency could lead to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of motors. LCA helps in taking decisions on motor replacement or retaining or refurbishment.

Keywords: Energy conservation, equivalent circuit parameters, induction motor efficiency, life cycle assessment, motor performance analysis.

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Authors: Gracia V. Navarro, Maria V. Gonzalez, Carlos G. Reed

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The eudaimonic perspective in philosophy and psychology suggests that a good life is closely related to developing oneself in order to contribute to the well-being and happiness of other people and of the world as a whole. Educational psychology can help to achieve this through the design and validation of educative models. Since 2004, the University of Concepcion and other Chilean universities apply an educative model to train socially responsible professionals, people that in the exercise of their profession contribute to generate equity for the development and assess the impacts of their decisions, opting for those that serve the common good. The main aim is to identify if a relationship exists between achieved learning, attitudes toward social responsibility, self-attribution of socially responsible behavior, value type, professional behavior observed and, participation in a specific model to train socially responsible (SR) professionals. The Achieved Learning and Attitudes Toward Social Responsibility Questionnaire, interview with employers and Values Questionnaire and Self-attribution of SR Behavior Questionnaire is applied to 394 students and graduates, divided into experimental and control groups (trained and not trained under the educative model), in order to identify the professional behavior of the graduates. The results show that students and graduates perceive cognitive, affective and behavioral learning, with significant differences in attitudes toward social responsibility and self-attribution of SR behavior, between experimental and control. There are also differences in employers' perceptions about the professional practice of those who were trained under the model and those who were not. It is concluded that the educative model has an impact on the learning of social responsibility and educates for a full life. It is also concluded that it is necessary to identify mediating variables of the model effect.

Keywords: Educative model, good life, professional social responsibility (SR), values.

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Authors: Teresita Castillo, Concepción Campo, Carlos Carrillo

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Attention, comprehension and solution of poverty can be worked considering a socioeconomic approach; but it also can be attended from a multidimensional perspective that allows considering other dimensions including psychological variables manifested in behaviors, thoughts and feelings concerning this phenomenon. Considering the importance of research regarding psychology and poverty, this paper presents results about psychosocial impacts of poverty on young people related to mental health issues and its relation to fatalism. These results are part of a bigger transcultural study done in collaboration with the Federal University of Ceará, in Brazil. Participants were 101 young men and women, between 12 and 29 years old, living in two emarginated suburbs in Mérida, Mexico, located in the southeastern zone of the country. Participants responded the Self Report Questionnaire (SRQ- 20), with 20 items dichotomous presence/absence that assess anxious and depressive issues and the Fatalism Scale, with 30 items Likert five-point spread over five factors. Results show that one third of participants mentioned to get easily frightened, feeling nervous, tense or worried as well as unhappy, difficulty on making decisions, and troubles in thinking clearly. About 20% mentioned to have headaches, to sleep badly, to cry more than usual and to feel tired all the time. Regarding Fatalism, results show there is a greater internal allocation and lower external attribution in young participants, but they have some symptoms regarding poor mental health. Discussion is in terms of possible explanations about the results and emphasizes the importance of holistic approaches for a better understanding of the psychosocial impacts of poverty on young people and strengthening the resilience to increase positive mental health in emarginated contexts, where Community Psychology could have an important duty in community health promotion.

Keywords: Fatalism, mental health, poverty, youth.

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Authors: Suguru Ochiai, Toru Yabuki, Yoshiki Yamaguchi, Yuetsu Kodama

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In this paper, we propose a Connect6 solver which adopts a hybrid approach based on a tree-search algorithm and image processing techniques. The solver must deal with the complicated computation and provide high performance in order to make real-time decisions. The proposed approach enables the solver to be implemented on a single Spartan-6 XC6SLX45 FPGA produced by XILINX without using any external devices. The compact implementation is achieved through image processing techniques to optimize a tree-search algorithm of the Connect6 game. The tree search is widely used in computer games and the optimal search brings the best move in every turn of a computer game. Thus, many tree-search algorithms such as Minimax algorithm and artificial intelligence approaches have been widely proposed in this field. However, there is one fundamental problem in this area; the computation time increases rapidly in response to the growth of the game tree. It means the larger the game tree is, the bigger the circuit size is because of their highly parallel computation characteristics. Here, this paper aims to reduce the size of a Connect6 game tree using image processing techniques and its position symmetric property. The proposed solver is composed of four computational modules: a two-dimensional checkmate strategy checker, a template matching module, a skilful-line predictor, and a next-move selector. These modules work well together in selecting next moves from some candidates and the total amount of their circuits is small. The details of the hardware design for an FPGA implementation are described and the performance of this design is also shown in this paper.

Keywords: Connect6, pattern matching, game-tree reduction, hardware direct computation

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Authors: Tommaso Adamo, Gianpaolo Ghiani, Antonio D. Grieco, Emanuela Guerriero

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Batch production plants provide a wide range of scheduling problems. In pharmaceutical industries a batch process is usually described by a recipe, consisting of an ordering of tasks to produce the desired product. In this research work we focused on pharmaceutical production processes requiring the culture of a microorganism population (i.e. bacteria, yeasts or antibiotics). Several sources of uncertainty may influence the yield of the culture processes, including (i) low performance and quality of the cultured microorganism population or (ii) microbial contamination. For these reasons, robustness is a valuable property for the considered application context. In particular, a robust schedule will not collapse immediately when a cell of microorganisms has to be thrown away due to a microbial contamination. Indeed, a robust schedule should change locally in small proportions and the overall performance measure (i.e. makespan, lateness) should change a little if at all. In this research work we formulated a constraint programming optimization (COP) model for the robust planning of antibiotics production. We developed a discrete-time model with a multi-criteria objective, ordering the different criteria and performing a lexicographic optimization. A feasible solution of the proposed COP model is a schedule of a given set of tasks onto available resources. The schedule has to satisfy tasks precedence constraints, resource capacity constraints and time constraints. In particular time constraints model tasks duedates and resource availability time windows constraints. To improve the schedule robustness, we modeled the concept of (a, b) super-solutions, where (a, b) are input parameters of the COP model. An (a, b) super-solution is one in which if a variables (i.e. the completion times of a culture tasks) lose their values (i.e. cultures are contaminated), the solution can be repaired by assigning these variables values with a new values (i.e. the completion times of a backup culture tasks) and at most b other variables (i.e. delaying the completion of at most b other tasks). The efficiency and applicability of the proposed model is demonstrated by solving instances taken from a real-life pharmaceutical company. Computational results showed that the determined super-solutions are near-optimal.

Keywords: Constraint programming, super-solutions, robust scheduling, batch process, pharmaceutical industries.

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Authors: Hammad T. Janjuhah, Josep Sanjuan, Mohamed K. Salah

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Biological and chemical activities in carbonates are responsible for the complexity of the pore system. Primary porosity is generally of natural origin while secondary porosity is subject to chemical reactivity through diagenetic processes. To understand the integrated part of hydrocarbon exploration, it is necessary to understand the carbonate pore system. However, the current porosity classification scheme is limited to adequately predict the petrophysical properties of different reservoirs having various origins and depositional environments. Rock classification provides a descriptive method for explaining the lithofacies but makes no significant contribution to the application of porosity and permeability (poro-perm) correlation. The Central Luconia carbonate system (Malaysia) represents a good example of pore complexity (in terms of nature and origin) mainly related to diagenetic processes which have altered the original reservoir. For quantitative analysis, 32 high-resolution images of each thin section were taken using transmitted light microscopy. The quantification of grains, matrix, cement, and macroporosity (pore types) was achieved using a petrographic analysis of thin sections and FESEM images. The point counting technique was used to estimate the amount of macroporosity from thin section, which was then subtracted from the total porosity to derive the microporosity. The quantitative observation of thin sections revealed that the mouldic porosity (macroporosity) is the dominant porosity type present, whereas the microporosity seems to correspond to a sum of 40 to 50% of the total porosity. It has been proven that these Miocene carbonates contain a significant amount of microporosity, which significantly complicates the estimation and production of hydrocarbons. Neglecting its impact can increase uncertainty about estimating hydrocarbon reserves. Due to the diversity of geological parameters, the application of existing porosity classifications does not allow a better understanding of the poro-perm relationship. However, the classification can be improved by including the pore types and pore structures where they can be divided into macro- and microporosity. Such studies of microporosity identification/classification represent now a major concern in limestone reservoirs around the world.

Keywords: Carbonate reservoirs, microporosity, overview of porosity classification, reservoir characterization.

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Authors: Yi-Chun Kuo, Jo-Chieh Lin

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The objective of a supply chain strategy is to reduce waste and increase efficiency to attain cost benefits, and to guarantee supply chain flexibility when facing the ever-changing market environment in order to meet customer requirements. Strategy implementation aims to fulfill common goals and attain benefits by integrating upstream and downstream enterprises, sharing information, conducting common planning, and taking part in decision making, so as to enhance the overall performance of the supply chain. With the rise of outsourcing and globalization, the increasing dependence on suppliers and customers and the rapid development of information technology, the complexity and uncertainty of the supply chain have intensified, and supply chain vulnerability has surged, resulting in adverse effects on supply chain performance. Thus, this study aims to use supply chain vulnerability as a moderating variable and apply structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the relationships among supply chain strategy, supply chain integration, and supply chain performance, as well as the moderating effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance. The data investigation of this study was questionnaires which were collected from the management level of enterprises in Taiwan and China, 149 questionnaires were received. The result of confirmatory factor analysis shows that the path coefficients of supply chain strategy on supply chain integration and supply chain performance are positive (0.497, t= 4.914; 0.748, t= 5.919), having a significantly positive effect. Supply chain integration is also significantly positively correlated to supply chain performance (0.192, t = 2.273). The moderating effects of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain strategy and supply chain integration to supply chain performance are significant (7.407; 4.687). In Taiwan, 97.73% of enterprises are small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) focusing on receiving original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) orders. In order to meet the needs of customers and to respond to market changes, these enterprises especially focus on supply chain flexibility and their integration with the upstream and downstream enterprises. According to the observation of this research, the effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance is significant, and so enterprises need to attach great importance to the management of supply chain risk and conduct risk analysis on their suppliers in order to formulate response strategies when facing emergency situations. At the same time, risk management is incorporated into the supply chain so as to reduce the effect of supply chain vulnerability on the overall supply chain performance.

Keywords: Supply chain integration, supply chain performance, supply chain vulnerability, structural equation modeling.

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Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

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The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, digital twin, Generalised Additive Model, Power Consumption Model.

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Authors: S. Homrossukon, A. Anurathapunt

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This is an application research presenting the improvement of production quality using the six sigma solutions and the analyses of benefit-cost ratio. The case of interest is the production of tile-concrete. Such production has faced with the problem of high nonconforming products from an inappropriate surface coating and had low process capability based on the strength property of tile. Surface coating and tile strength are the most critical to quality of this product. The improvements followed five stages of six sigma solutions. After the improvement, the production yield was improved to 80% as target required and the defective products from coating process was remarkably reduced from 29.40% to 4.09%. The process capability based on the strength quality was increased from 0.87 to 1.08 as customer oriented. The improvement was able to save the materials loss for 3.24 millions baht or 0.11 million dollars. The benefits from the improvement were analyzed from (1) the reduction of the numbers of non conforming tile using its factory price for surface coating improvement and (2) the materials saved from the increment of process capability. The benefit-cost ratio of overall improvement was high as 7.03. It was non valuable investment in define, measure, analyses and the initial of improve stages after that it kept increasing. This was due to there were no benefits in define, measure, and analyze stages of six sigma since these three stages mainly determine the cause of problem and its effects rather than improve the process. The benefit-cost ratio starts existing in the improve stage and go on. Within each stage, the individual benefitcost ratio was much higher than the accumulative one as there was an accumulation of cost since the first stage of six sigma. The consideration of the benefit-cost ratio during the improvement project helps make decisions for cost saving of similar activities during the improvement and for new project. In conclusion, the determination of benefit-cost ratio behavior through out six sigma implementation period provides the useful data for managing quality improvement for the optimal effectiveness. This is the additional outcome from the regular proceeding of six sigma.

Keywords: Six Sigma Solutions, Process Improvement, QualityManagement, Benefit Cost Ratio

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Authors: Alan Luo, Hunter N. B. Moseley

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Many macromolecular structure entries in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) have a range of regional (localized) quality issues, be it derived from X-ray crystallography, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, or other experimental approaches. However, most PDB entries are judged by global quality metrics like R-factor, R-free, and resolution for X-ray crystallography or backbone phi-psi distribution statistics and average restraint violations for NMR. Regional quality is often ignored when PDB entries are re-used for a variety of structurally based analyses. The binding of ligands, especially ligands involved in energy metabolism, is of particular interest in many structurally focused protein studies. Using a regional quality metric that provides chemically interpretable information from electron density maps, a significant number of outliers in regional structural quality was detected across X-ray crystallographic PDB entries for proteins bound to biochemically critical ligands. In this study, a series of analyses was performed to evaluate both specific and general potential factors that could promote these outliers. In particular, these potential factors were the minimum distance to a metal ion, the minimum distance to a crystal contact, and the isotropic atomic b-factor. To evaluate these potential factors, Fisher’s exact tests were performed, using regional quality criteria of outlier (top 1%, 2.5%, 5%, or 10%) versus non-outlier compared to a potential factor metric above versus below a certain outlier cutoff. The results revealed a consistent general effect from region-specific normalized b-factors but no specific effect from metal ion contact distances and only a very weak effect from crystal contact distance as compared to the b-factor results. These findings indicate that no single specific potential factor explains a majority of the outlier ligand-bound regions, implying that human error is likely as important as these other factors. Thus, all factors, including human error, should be considered when regions of low structural quality are detected. Also, the downstream re-use of protein structures for studying ligand-bound conformations should screen the regional quality of the binding sites. Doing so prevents misinterpretation due to the presence of structural uncertainty or flaws in regions of interest.

Keywords: Biomacromolecular structure, coenzyme, electron density discrepancy analysis, X-ray crystallography.

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Authors: Aini Hussain, M A Hannan, Azah Mohamed, Hilmi Sanusi, Burhanuddin Yeop Majlis

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Airbag deployment has been known to be responsible for huge death, incidental injuries and broken bones due to low crash severity and wrong deployment decisions. Therefore, the authorities and industries have been looking for more innovative and intelligent products to be realized for future enhancements in the vehicle safety systems (VSSs). Although the VSSs technologies have advanced considerably, they still face challenges such as how to avoid unnecessary and untimely airbag deployments that can be hazardous and fatal. Currently, most of the existing airbag systems deploy without regard to occupant size and position. As such, this paper will focus on the occupant and crash sensing performances due to frontal collisions for the new breed of so called smart airbag systems. It intends to provide a thorough discussion relating to the occupancy detection, occupant size classification, occupant off-position detection to determine safe distance zone for airbag deployment, crash-severity analysis and airbag decision algorithms via a computer modeling. The proposed system model consists of three main modules namely, occupant sensing, crash severity analysis and decision fusion. The occupant sensing system module utilizes the weight sensor to determine occupancy, classify the occupant size, and determine occupant off-position condition to compute safe distance for airbag deployment. The crash severity analysis module is used to generate relevant information pertinent to airbag deployment decision. Outputs from these two modules are fused to the decision module for correct and efficient airbag deployment action. Computer modeling work is carried out using Simulink, Stateflow, SimMechanics and Virtual Reality toolboxes.

Keywords: Crash severity analysis, occupant size classification, smart airbag, vehicle safety system.

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Authors: T. Chaiechi, N. Stoeckl

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Scarcity of resources for biodiversity conservation gives rise to the need of strategic investment with priorities given to the cost of conservation. While the literature provides abundant methodological options for biodiversity conservation; estimating true cost of conservation remains abstract and simplistic, without recognising dynamic nature of the cost. Some recent works demonstrate the prominence of economic theory to inform biodiversity decisions, particularly on the costs and benefits of biodiversity however, the integration of the concept of true cost into biodiversity actions and planning are very slow to come by, and specially on a farm level. Conservation planning studies often use area as a proxy for costs neglecting different land values as well as protected areas. These literature consider only heterogeneous benefits while land costs are considered homogenous. Analysis with the assumption of cost homogeneity results in biased estimation; since not only it doesn’t address the true total cost of biodiversity actions and plans, but also it fails to screen out lands that are more (or less) expensive and/or difficult (or more suitable) for biodiversity conservation purposes, hindering validity and comparability of the results. Economies of scope” is one of the other most neglected aspects in conservation literature. The concept of economies of scope introduces the existence of cost complementarities within a multiple output production system and it suggests a lower cost during the concurrent production of multiple outputs by a given farm. If there are, indeed, economies of scope then simplistic representation of costs will tend to overestimate the true cost of conservation leading to suboptimal outcomes. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to provide first road review of the various theoretical ways in which economies of scope are likely to occur of how they might occur in conservation. Consequently, the paper addresses gaps that have to be filled in future analysis.

Keywords: Cost, biodiversity conservation, Multi-output production systems, Empirical techniques.

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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The geological environment where the groundwater is collected represents the most important element that affects the behaviour of groundwater aquifer. As groundwater is a worldwide vital resource, it requires knowing the parameters that affect this source accurately so that the conceptualized mathematical models would be acceptable to the broadest ranges. Therefore, groundwater models have recently become an effective and efficient tool to investigate groundwater aquifer behaviours. Groundwater aquifer may contain aquitards, aquicludes, or interfaces within its geological formations. Aquitards and aquicludes have geological formations that forced the modellers to include those formations within the conceptualized groundwater models, while interfaces are commonly neglected from the conceptualization process because the modellers believe that the interface has no effect on aquifer behaviour. The current research highlights the impact of an interface existing in a real unconfined groundwater aquifer called Dibdibba, located in Al-Najaf City, Iraq where it has a river called the Euphrates River that passes through the eastern part of this city. Dibdibba groundwater aquifer consists of two types of soil layers separated by an interface soil layer. A groundwater model is built for Al-Najaf City to explore the impact of this interface. Calibration process is done using PEST 'Parameter ESTimation' approach and the best Dibdibba groundwater model is obtained. When the soil interface is conceptualized, results show that the groundwater tables are significantly affected by that interface through appearing dry areas of 56.24 km² and 6.16 km² in the upper and lower layers of the aquifer, respectively. The Euphrates River will also leak water into the groundwater aquifer of 7359 m³/day. While these results are changed when the soil interface is neglected where the dry area became 0.16 km², the Euphrates River leakage became 6334 m³/day. In addition, the conceptualized models (with and without interface) reveal different responses for the change in the recharge rates applied on the aquifer through the uncertainty analysis test. The aquifer of Dibdibba in Al-Najaf City shows a slight deficit in the amount of water supplied by the current pumping scheme and also notices that the Euphrates River suffers from stresses applied to the aquifer. Ultimately, this study shows a crucial need to represent the interface soil layer in model conceptualization to be the intended and future predicted behaviours more reliable for consideration purposes.

Keywords: Al-Najaf City, groundwater aquifer behaviour, groundwater modelling, interface soil layer, Visual MODFLOW.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, the comparison of composite programming and compromise programming for the aircraft selection problem is discussed using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The decision making process requires the prior definition and fulfillment of certain factors, especially when it comes to complex areas such as aircraft selection problems. The proposed technique gives more efficient results by extending the composite programming and compromise programming, which are widely used in modeling multiple criteria decisions. The proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting aircraft problems.A selection of aircraft was made based on the proposed approach developed in the field of multiple criteria decision making. The model presented is solved by using the following methods: composite programming, and compromise programming. The importance values of the weight coefficients of the criteria are calculated using the mean weight method. The evaluation and ranking of aircraft are carried out using the composite programming and compromise programming methods. In order to determine the stability of the model and the ability to apply the developed composite programming and compromise programming approach, the paper analyzes its sensitivity, which involves changing the value of the coefficient λ and q in the first part. The second part of the sensitivity analysis relates to the application of different multiple criteria decision making methods, composite programming and compromise programming. In addition, in the third part of the sensitivity analysis, the Spearman correlation coefficient of the ranks obtained was calculated which confirms the applicability of all the proposed approaches.

Keywords: composite programming, compromise programming, additive weighted model, multiplicative weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, aircraft selection

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Authors: Mohammad Aminnia, Mahmood Hosseini

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Environmental and functional conditions, sometimes, necessitate the architectural plan of the building to be asymmetric, and this result in an asymmetric structure. In such cases finding an optimal pattern for locating the components of lateral load bearing system, including shear walls, in the building’s plan is desired. In case of shear wall in addition to the location the shape of the wall cross-section is also an effective factor. Various types of shear walls and their proper layout might come effective in better stiffness distribution and more appropriate seismic response of the building. Several studies have been conducted in the context of analysis and design of shear walls; however, few studies have been performed on making decisions for the location and form of shear walls in multistory buildings, especially those with irregular plan. In this study, an attempt has been made to obtain the most reliable seismic behavior of multi-story reinforced concrete vertically chamfered buildings by using more appropriate shear walls form and arrangement in 7-, 10-, 12-, and 15-stoy buildings. The considered forms and arrangements include common rectangular walls and L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan, located as the core or in the outer frames of the building structure. Comparison of seismic behaviors of the buildings, including maximum roof displacement and particularly formation of plastic hinges and their distribution in the buildings’ structures, have been done based on the results of a series of nonlinear time history analyses, by using a set of selected earthquake records. Results show that shear walls with U-shaped cross-section, placed as the building central core, and also walls with Z-shaped cross-section, placed at the corners give the building more reliable seismic behavior.

Keywords: Vertically chamfered buildings, non-linear time history analyses, L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan walls.

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Authors: Mark Joseph Quinto, Roan Beronilla, Guiller Damian, Eliza Camaso, Ronaldo Alberto

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Forest inventories are essential to assess the composition, structure and distribution of forest vegetation that can be used as baseline information for management decisions. Classical forest inventory is labor intensive and time-consuming and sometimes even dangerous. The use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) in forest inventory would improve and overcome these restrictions. This study was conducted to determine the possibility of using LiDAR derived data in extracting high accuracy forest biophysical parameters and as a non-destructive method for forest status analysis of San Manual, Pangasinan. Forest resources extraction was carried out using LAS tools, GIS, Envi and .bat scripts with the available LiDAR data. The process includes the generation of derivatives such as Digital Terrain Model (DTM), Canopy Height Model (CHM) and Canopy Cover Model (CCM) in .bat scripts followed by the generation of 17 composite bands to be used in the extraction of forest classification covers using ENVI 4.8 and GIS software. The Diameter in Breast Height (DBH), Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and Carbon Stock (CS) were estimated for each classified forest cover and Tree Count Extraction was carried out using GIS. Subsequently, field validation was conducted for accuracy assessment. Results showed that the forest of San Manuel has 73% Forest Cover, which is relatively much higher as compared to the 10% canopy cover requirement. On the extracted canopy height, 80% of the tree’s height ranges from 12 m to 17 m. CS of the three forest covers based on the AGB were: 20819.59 kg/20x20 m for closed broadleaf, 8609.82 kg/20x20 m for broadleaf plantation and 15545.57 kg/20x20m for open broadleaf. Average tree counts for the tree forest plantation was 413 trees/ha. As such, the forest of San Manuel has high percent forest cover and high CS.

Keywords: Carbon stock, forest inventory, LiDAR, tree count.

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Authors: S. Lemoussu, J. C. Chaudemar, R. A. Vingerhoeds

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The aeronautics sector is currently living an unprecedented growth largely due to innovative projects. In several cases, such innovative developments are being carried out by Small and Medium sized-Enterprises (SMEs). For instance, in Europe, a handful of SMEs are leading projects like airships, large civil drones, or flying cars. These SMEs have all limited resources, must make strategic decisions, take considerable financial risks and in the same time must take into account the constraints of safety, cost, time and performance as any commercial organization in this industry. Moreover, today, no international regulations fully exist for the development and certification of this kind of projects. The absence of such a precise and sufficiently detailed regulatory framework requires a very close contact with regulatory instances. But, SMEs do not always have sufficient resources and internal knowledge to handle this complexity and to discuss these issues. This poses additional challenges for those SMEs that have system integration responsibilities and that must provide all the necessary means of compliance to demonstrate their ability to design, produce, and operate airships with the expected level of safety and reliability. The final objective of our research is thus to provide a methodological framework supporting SMEs in their development taking into account recent innovation and institutional rules of the sector. We aim to provide a contribution to the problematic by developing a specific Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach. Airspace regulation, aeronautics standards and international norms on systems engineering are taken on board to be formalized in a set of models. This paper presents the on-going research project combining Systems Engineering and Project Management process modeling and taking into account the metamodeling problematic.

Keywords: Aeronautics, certification, process modeling, project management, SME, systems engineering.

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