Search results for: stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks

Authors: Asar Khan, Peter D. Widdop, Andrew J. Day, Aliaster S. Wood, Steve, R. Mounce, John Machell

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This paper describes an automated event detection and location system for water distribution pipelines which is based upon low-cost sensor technology and signature analysis by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The development of a low cost failure sensor which measures the opacity or cloudiness of the local water flow has been designed, developed and validated, and an ANN based system is then described which uses time series data produced by sensors to construct an empirical model for time series prediction and classification of events. These two components have been installed, tested and verified in an experimental site in a UK water distribution system. Verification of the system has been achieved from a series of simulated burst trials which have provided real data sets. It is concluded that the system has potential in water distribution network management.

Keywords: Detection, leakage, neural networks, sensors, water distribution networks

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Authors: Fadl M. Ba-Alwi, Kamal K. Bharadwaj

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In this paper a novel algorithm is proposed that integrates the process of fuzzy hierarchy generation and rule discovery for automated discovery of Production Rules with Fuzzy Hierarchy (PRFH) in large databases.A concept of frequency matrix (Freq) introduced to summarize large database that helps in minimizing the number of database accesses, identification and removal of irrelevant attribute values and weak classes during the fuzzy hierarchy generation.Experimental results have established the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Data Mining, Degree of subsumption, Freq matrix, Fuzzy hierarchy.

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Authors: Hassan Naraghi

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In this paper, we define permutable and mutually permutable fuzzy subgroups of a group. Then we study their relation with permutable and mutually permutable subgroups of a group. Also we study some properties of fuzzy quasinormal subgroup. We define superfuzzy subset of a fuzzy subset and we study some properties of superfuzzy subset of a fuzzy subset.

Keywords: Permutable fuzzy subgroup, mutually permutable fuzzy subgroup, fuzzy quasinormal subgroup, superfuzzy subset.

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Authors: Shahabeddin Sotudian, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, I. B. Turksen

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Hepatitis is one of the most common and dangerous diseases that affects humankind, and exposes millions of people to serious health risks every year. Diagnosis of Hepatitis has always been a challenge for physicians. This paper presents an effective method for diagnosis of hepatitis based on interval Type-II fuzzy. This proposed system includes three steps: pre-processing (feature selection), Type-I and Type-II fuzzy classification, and system evaluation. KNN-FD feature selection is used as the preprocessing step in order to exclude irrelevant features and to improve classification performance and efficiency in generating the classification model. In the fuzzy classification step, an “indirect approach” is used for fuzzy system modeling by implementing the exponential compactness and separation index for determining the number of rules in the fuzzy clustering approach. Therefore, we first proposed a Type-I fuzzy system that had an accuracy of approximately 90.9%. In the proposed system, the process of diagnosis faces vagueness and uncertainty in the final decision. Thus, the imprecise knowledge was managed by using interval Type-II fuzzy logic. The results that were obtained show that interval Type-II fuzzy has the ability to diagnose hepatitis with an average accuracy of 93.94%. The classification accuracy obtained is the highest one reached thus far. The aforementioned rate of accuracy demonstrates that the Type-II fuzzy system has a better performance in comparison to Type-I and indicates a higher capability of Type-II fuzzy system for modeling uncertainty.

Keywords: Hepatitis disease, medical diagnosis, type-I fuzzy logic, type-II fuzzy logic, feature selection.

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Authors: Jacqueline R. T. Alipo-on, Francesca I. F. Escobar, Myles J. T. Tan, Hezerul Abdul Karim, Nouar AlDahoul

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Electrocardiogram (ECG) signal analysis and processing are crucial in the diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases which are considered as one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. However, the traditional rule-based analysis of large volumes of ECG data is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and prone to human errors. With the advancement of the programming paradigm, algorithms such as machine learning have been increasingly used to perform an analysis on the ECG signals. In this paper, various deep learning algorithms were adapted to classify five classes of heart beat types. The dataset used in this work is the synthetic MIT-Beth Israel Hospital (MIT-BIH) Arrhythmia dataset produced from generative adversarial networks (GANs). Various deep learning models such as ResNet-50 convolutional neural network (CNN), 1-D CNN, and long short-term memory (LSTM) were evaluated and compared. ResNet-50 was found to outperform other models in terms of recall and F1 score using a five-fold average score of 98.88% and 98.87%, respectively. 1-D CNN, on the other hand, was found to have the highest average precision of 98.93%.

Keywords: Heartbeat classification, convolutional neural network, electrocardiogram signals, ECG signals, generative adversarial networks, long short-term memory, LSTM, ResNet-50.

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Authors: Hamza A. Ali, Waleed A. J. Rasheed

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The use of neural networks for recognition application is generally constrained by their inherent parameters inflexibility after the training phase. This means no adaptation is accommodated for input variations that have any influence on the network parameters. Attempts were made in this work to design a neural network that includes an additional mechanism that adjusts the threshold values according to the input pattern variations. The new approach is based on splitting the whole network into two subnets; main traditional net and a supportive net. The first deals with the required output of trained patterns with predefined settings, while the second tolerates output generation dynamically with tuning capability for any newly applied input. This tuning comes in the form of an adjustment to the threshold values. Two levels of supportive net were studied; one implements an extended additional layer with adjustable neuronal threshold setting mechanism, while the second implements an auxiliary net with traditional architecture performs dynamic adjustment to the threshold value of the main net that is constructed in dual-layer architecture. Experiment results and analysis of the proposed designs have given quite satisfactory conducts. The supportive layer approach achieved over 90% recognition rate, while the multiple network technique shows more effective and acceptable level of recognition. However, this is achieved at the price of network complexity and computation time. Recognition generalization may be also improved by accommodating capabilities involving all the innate structures in conjugation with Intelligence abilities with the needs of further advanced learning phases.

Keywords: Classification, Recognition, Neural Networks, Pattern Recognition, Generalization.

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Authors: Yong Li

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The paper is concerned with the existence of solution of nonlinear second order neutral stochastic differential inclusions with infinite delay in a Hilbert Space. Sufficient conditions for the existence are obtained by using a fixed point theorem for condensing maps.

Keywords: Mild solution, Convex multivalued map, Neutral stochastic differential inclusions.

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Authors: George E. Tsekouras, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Sotiris Kotsiantis, Christos Kalloniatis, Panagiotis Pintelas

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We develop a three-step fuzzy logic-based algorithm for clustering categorical attributes, and we apply it to analyze cultural data. In the first step the algorithm employs an entropy-based clustering scheme, which initializes the cluster centers. In the second step we apply the fuzzy c-modes algorithm to obtain a fuzzy partition of the data set, and the third step introduces a novel cluster validity index, which decides the final number of clusters.

Keywords: Categorical data, cultural data, fuzzy logic clustering, fuzzy c-modes, cluster validity index.

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Authors: Mert Bal, Hayri Sever, Oya Kalıpsız

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Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSSs) are sophisticated, intelligent systems that can provide inference due to lack of information and uncertainty. In such systems, to model the uncertainty various soft computing methods such as Bayesian networks, rough sets, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, inductive logic programming and genetic algorithms and hybrid methods that formed from the combination of the few mentioned methods are used. In this study, symptom-disease relationships are presented by a framework which is modeled with a formal concept analysis and theory, as diseases, objects and attributes of symptoms. After a concept lattice is formed, Bayes theorem can be used to determine the relationships between attributes and objects. A discernibility relation that forms the base of the rough sets can be applied to attribute data sets in order to reduce attributes and decrease the complexity of computation.

Keywords: Formal Concept Analysis, Rough Set Theory, Granular Computing, Medical Decision Support System.

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Authors: Thair Sh. Mahmoud, Tang Sai Hong, Mohammed H. Marhaban

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In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy based Fuzzy Subtractive Clustering Method (FSCM) and Self Tuning Fuzzy PD-like Controller (STFPDC) were used to solve non-linearity and trajectory problems of pitch AND yaw angles of Twin Rotor MIMO system (TRMS). The control objective is to make the beams of TRMS reach a desired position quickly and accurately. The proposed method could achieve control objectives with simpler controller. To simplify the complexity of STFPDC, ANFIS based FSCM was used to simplify the controller and improve the response. The proposed controllers could achieve satisfactory objectives under different input signals. Simulation results under MATLAB/Simulink® proved the improvement of response and superiority of simplified STFPDC on Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC).

Keywords: Fuzzy Subtractive Clustering Method, Neuro Fuzzy, Self Tuning Fuzzy Controller, and Twin Rotor MIMO System.

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Authors: A. Golmohammadi, B. Jahandideh

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One of the determinants of a firm-s prosperity is the customers- perceived service quality and satisfaction. While service quality is wide in scope, and consists of various dimensions, there may be differences in the relative importance of these dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction of service quality. Identifying the relative rank of different dimensions of service quality is very important in that it can help managers to find out which service dimensions have a greater effect on customers- overall satisfaction. Such an insight will consequently lead to more effective resource allocation which will finally end in higher levels of customer satisfaction. This issue – despite its criticality- has not received enough attention so far. Therefore, using a sample of 240 bank customers in Iran, an artificial neural network is developed to address this gap in the literature. As customers- evaluation of service quality is a subjective process, artificial neural networks –as a brain metaphor- may appear to have a potentiality to model such a complicated process. Proposing a neural network which is able to predict the customers- overall satisfaction of service quality with a promising level of accuracy is the first contribution of this study. In addition, prioritizing the service quality dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction –by using sensitivity analysis of neural network- is the second important finding of this paper.

Keywords: service quality, customer satisfaction, relative importance, artificial neural network.

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Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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Authors: Liew Siaw Yee, Tahir Ahmad

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In this paper, the Fuzzy Autocatalytic Set (FACS) is composed into Omega Algebra by embedding the membership value of fuzzy edge connectivity using the property of transitive affinity. Then, the Omega Algebra of FACS is a transformation semigroup which is a special class of semigroup is shown.

Keywords: Fuzzy autocatalytic set, omega algebra, semigroup, transformation semigroup.

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Authors: Abdelhamid Louliej, Younes Jabrane

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Satellites are becoming indispensable assets to fifth-generation (5G) new radio architecture, complementing wireless and terrestrial communication links. The combination of satellites and 5G architecture allows consumers to access all next-generation services anytime, anywhere, including scenarios, like traveling to remote areas (without coverage). Nevertheless, this solution faces several challenges, such as a significant propagation delay, Doppler frequency shift, and high Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR), causing signal distortion due to the non-linear saturation of the High-Power Amplifier (HPA). To compensate for HPA non-linearity in 5G satellite transmission, an efficient pre-distorter scheme using Neural Networks (NN) is proposed. To assess the proposed NN pre-distorter, two types of HPA were investigated: Travelling Wave Tube Amplifier (TWTA) and Solid-State Power Amplifier (SSPA). The results show that the NN pre-distorter design presents an Error Vector Magnitude (EVM) improvement by 95.26%. Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE) and Adjacent Channel Power Ratio (ACPR) were reduced by -43,66 dB and 24.56 dBm, respectively. Moreover, the system suffers no degradation of the Bit Error Rate (BER) for TWTA and SSPA amplifiers.

Keywords: Satellites, 5G, Neural Networks, High-Power Amplifier, Travelling Wave Tube Amplifier, Solid-State Power Amplifier, EVM, NMSE, ACPR.

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Authors: Jamel Khedri, Mohamed Chaabane, Mansour Souissi, Driss Mehdi

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This paper deals with the synthesis of fuzzy controller applied to a permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM) with a guaranteed H∞ performance. To design this fuzzy controller, nonlinear model of the PMSM is approximated by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model (T-S fuzzy model), then the so-called parallel distributed compensation (PDC) is employed. Next, we derive the property of the H∞ norm. The latter is cast in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMI-s) while minimizing the H∞ norm of the transfer function between the disturbance and the error ( ) ev T . The experimental and simulations results were conducted on a permanent magnet synchronous machine to illustrate the effects of the fuzzy modelling and the controller design via the PDC.

Keywords: Feedback controller, Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI), PMSM, H∞ performance.

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Authors: R. Hosseingholizadeh

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This article presents a method for elections between the members of a group that is founded by fuzzy logic. Linguistic variables are objects for decision on election cards and deduction is based on t-norms and s-norms. In this election-s method election cards are questionnaire. The questionnaires are comprised of some questions with some choices. The choices are words from natural language. Presented method is accompanied by center of gravity (COG) defuzzification added up to a computer program by MATLAB. Finally the method is illustrated by solving two examples; choose a head for a research group-s members and a representative for students.

Keywords: fuzzy election, fuzzy electoral card, fuzzy inference, questionnaire.

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Authors: M. Mohagheghian, A. M. Ghaedi, A. Vafaei

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An artificial neural network (ANN) model is presented for the prediction of kinematic viscosity of binary mixtures of poly (ethylene glycol) (PEG) in water as a function of temperature, number-average molecular weight and mass fraction. Kinematic viscosities data of aqueous solutions for PEG (0.55419×10-6 – 9.875×10-6 m2/s) were obtained from the literature for a wide range of temperatures (277.15 - 338.15 K), number-average molecular weight (200 -10000), and mass fraction (0.0 – 1.0). A three layer feed-forward artificial neural network was employed. This model predicts the kinematic viscosity with a mean square error (MSE) of 0.281 and the coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.983. The results show that the kinematic viscosity of binary mixture of PEG in water could be successfully predicted using an artificial neural network model.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, kinematic viscosity, poly ethylene glycol (PEG)

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Authors: Jong-Moon Chung, Hyung-Weon Cho, Ki-Yong Jin, Min-Hee Cho

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In this paper, we present an analytical framework for the evaluation of the uplink performance of multihop cellular networks based on dynamic time division duplex (TDD). New wireless broadband protocols, such as WiMAX, WiBro, and 3G-LTE apply TDD, and mobile communication protocols under standardization (e.g., IEEE802.16j) are investigating mobile multihop relay (MMR) as a future technology. In this paper a novel MMR TDD scheme is presented, where the dynamic range of the frame is shared to traffic resources of asymmetric nature and multihop relaying. The mobile communication channel interference model comprises of inner and co-channel interference (CCI). The performance analysis focuses on the uplink due to the fact that the effects of dynamic resource allocation show significant performance degradation only in the uplink compared to time division multiple access (TDMA) schemes due to CCI [1-3], where the downlink results to be the same or better.The analysis was based on the signal to interference power ratio (SIR) outage probability of dynamic TDD (D-TDD) and TDMA systems,which are the most widespread mobile communication multi-user control techniques. This paper presents the uplink SIR outage probability with multihop results and shows that the dynamic TDD scheme applying MMR can provide a performance improvement compared to single hop applications if executed properly.

Keywords: Co-Channel Interference, Dynamic TDD, MobileMultihop Reply, Cellular Network, Time Division Multiple Access.

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Authors: Mojtaba Aghamiri Esfahani, Mohammad Karkon, Seyed Majid Hosseini Nezhad, Reza Hosseini-Ara

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In this study, the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of a plate on free vibration response is investigated. For this purpose, the elastic modulus of the plate is modeled as stochastic variable with normal distribution. Moreover, the distance autocorrelation function is used for stochastic field. Then, by applying the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic finite element relations are extracted. Finally, with a numerical test, the effect of uncertainty in the elastic modulus on free vibration response of a plate is studied. The results show that the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of the plate cannot play an important role on the free vibration response.

Keywords: Stochastic finite elements, plate bending, free vibration, Monte Carlo, Neumann expansion method.

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Authors: N. Kaewpraek, W. Assawinchaichote

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This paper considers an H_∞ TS fuzzy state-derivative feedback controller for a class of nonlinear dynamical systems. A Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model is used to approximate a class of nonlinear dynamical systems. Then, based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we design an H_∞ TS fuzzy state-derivative feedback control law which guarantees L₂-gain of the mapping from the exogenous input noise to the regulated output to be less or equal to a prescribed value. We derive a sufficient condition such that the system with the fuzzy controller is asymptotically stable and H_∞ performance is satisfied. Finally, we provide and simulate a numerical example is provided to illustrate the stability and the effectiveness of the proposed controller.

Keywords: H∞ fuzzy control, LMI, Takagi-Sugano (TS) fuzzy model, nonlinear dynamic systems, state-derivative feedback.

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Authors: Gayadhar Panda, Sidhartha Panda, C. Ardil

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The main objective of Automatic Generation Control (AGC) is to balance the total system generation against system load losses so that the desired frequency and power interchange with neighboring systems is maintained. Any mismatch between generation and demand causes the system frequency to deviate from its nominal value. Thus high frequency deviation may lead to system collapse. This necessitates a very fast and accurate controller to maintain the nominal system frequency. This paper deals with a novel approach of artificial intelligence (AI) technique called Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy (HNF) approach for an (AGC). The advantage of this controller is that it can handle the non-linearities at the same time it is faster than other conventional controllers. The effectiveness of the proposed controller in increasing the damping of local and inter area modes of oscillation is demonstrated in a two area interconnected power system. The result shows that intelligent controller is having improved dynamic response and at the same time faster than conventional controller.

Keywords: Automatic Generation Control (AGC), Dynamic Model, Two-area Power System, Fuzzy Logic Controller, Neural Network, Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy(HNF).

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Authors: H.Mohammadi Majd, M.Jalali Azizpour

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In this paper back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN )with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm is employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. The input data for the artificial neural network are a set of parameters generated randomly (aspect ratio d/h, material properties, temperature and coefficient of friction). The output data are the coefficient of polynomial that fitted on barreling curves. Neural network was trained using barreling curves generated by finite element simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process

Keywords: Back-propagation artificial neural network(BPANN), prediction, upsetting

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Authors: E. Sobhani-Tehrani, K. Khorasani, N. Meskin

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This paper presents a novel integrated hybrid approach for fault diagnosis (FD) of nonlinear systems. Unlike most FD techniques, the proposed solution simultaneously accomplishes fault detection, isolation, and identification (FDII) within a unified diagnostic module. At the core of this solution is a bank of adaptive neural parameter estimators (NPE) associated with a set of singleparameter fault models. The NPEs continuously estimate unknown fault parameters (FP) that are indicators of faults in the system. Two NPE structures including series-parallel and parallel are developed with their exclusive set of desirable attributes. The parallel scheme is extremely robust to measurement noise and possesses a simpler, yet more solid, fault isolation logic. On the contrary, the series-parallel scheme displays short FD delays and is robust to closed-loop system transients due to changes in control commands. Finally, a fault tolerant observer (FTO) is designed to extend the capability of the NPEs to systems with partial-state measurement.

Keywords: Hybrid fault diagnosis, Dynamic neural networks, Nonlinear systems.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

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Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

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Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.

Keywords: Doppler shift, filtered Poisson process, generalized Clark’s model, non-isotropic scattering, partially developed scattering, Rician distribution.

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Authors: S. Mahmoodzadeh, J. Shahrabi, M. Pariazar, M. S. Zaeri

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In this article, by using fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS technique we propose a new method for project selection problem. After reviewing four common methods of comparing alternatives investment (net present value, rate of return, benefit cost analysis and payback period) we use them as criteria in AHP tree. In this methodology by utilizing improved Analytical Hierarchy Process by Fuzzy set theory, first we try to calculate weight of each criterion. Then by implementing TOPSIS algorithm, assessment of projects has been done. Obtained results have been tested in a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy AHP, Project Selection, TOPSIS Technique.

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Authors: Balimu Mwiya, Mundia Muya, Chabota Kaliba, Peter Mukalula

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Factors affecting construction unit cost vary depending on a country’s political, economic, social and technological inclinations. Factors affecting construction costs have been studied from various perspectives. Analysis of cost factors requires an appreciation of a country’s practices. Identified cost factors provide an indication of a country’s construction economic strata. The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential factors that affect unit cost estimation and their breakdown using artificial neural networks. Twenty five (25) identified cost factors in road construction were subjected to a questionnaire survey and employing SPSS factor analysis the factors were reduced to eight. The 8 factors were analysed using neural network (NN) to determine the proportionate breakdown of the cost factors in a given construction unit rate. NN predicted that political environment accounted 44% of the unit rate followed by contractor capacity at 22% and financial delays, project feasibility and overhead & profit each at 11%. Project location, material availability and corruption perception index had minimal impact on the unit cost from the training data provided. Quantified cost factors can be incorporated in unit cost estimation models (UCEM) to produce more accurate estimates. This can create improvements in the cost estimation of infrastructure projects and establish a benchmark standard to assist the process of alignment of work practises and training of new staff, permitting the on-going development of best practises in cost estimation to become more effective.

Keywords: Construction cost factors, neural networks, roadworks, Zambian Construction Industry.

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Authors: M.R. Mustafa, M.H. Isa, R.B. Rezaur

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Prediction of highly non linear behavior of suspended sediment flow in rivers has prime importance in the field of water resources engineering. In this study the predictive performance of two Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) namely, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) Network and the Multi Layer Feed Forward (MLFF) Network have been compared. Time series data of daily suspended sediment discharge and water discharge at Pari River was used for training and testing the networks. A number of statistical parameters i.e. root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of efficiency (CE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used for performance evaluation of the models. Both the models produced satisfactory results and showed a good agreement between the predicted and observed data. The RBF network model provided slightly better results than the MLFF network model in predicting suspended sediment discharge.

Keywords: ANN, discharge, modeling, prediction, suspendedsediment,

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