Search results for: Spot Price

Authors: Ernawati Mustafa Kamal, Hasnanywati Hassan, Atasya Osmadi

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The housing industry is crucial for sustainable development of every country. Housing is a basic need that can enhance the quality of life. Owning a house is therefore the main aim of individuals. However, affordability has become a critical issue towards homeownership. In recent years, housing price in the main cities has increased tremendously to unaffordable level. This paper investigates factors influencing the housing price from developer’s perspective and provides recommendation on strategies to tackle this issue. Online and face-to-face survey was conducted on housing developers operating in Penang, Malaysia. The results indicate that (1) location; (2) macroeconomics factor; (3) demographic factors; (4) land/zoning and; (5) industry factors are the main factors influencing the housing price. This paper contributes towards better understanding on developers’ view on how the housing price is determined and form a basis for government to help tackle the housing affordability issue.

Keywords: Factors influencing house price, housing affordability, housing developers, Malaysia.

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Authors: Rajendra Prasad Mahapatra, K. Vimal Kumar

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There are many automotive accidents due to blind spots and driver inattentiveness. Blind spot is the area that is invisible to the driver's viewpoint without head rotation. Several methods are available for assisting the drivers. Simplest methods are — rear mirrors and wide-angle lenses. But, these methods have a disadvantage of the requirement for human assistance. So, the accuracy of these devices depends on driver. Another approach called an automated approach that makes use of sensors such as sonar or radar. These sensors are used to gather range information. The range information will be processed and used for detecting the collision. The disadvantage of this system is — low angular resolution and limited sensing volumes. This paper is a panoramic sensor based automotive vehicle monitoring..

Keywords: Panoramic sensors, Blind spot, Convex lens, Computer Vision, Sonar.

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Authors: Roger L Goodwin

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The US Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) measures hundreds of items in the US economy. Many social programs and government benefits index to the CPIs. The purpose of this project is to modernize an existing process. This paper will show the development of a small, visual, software product that documents the Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) for longterm contracts. The existing workbook does not provide the flexibility to calculate EPAs where the base-month and the option-month are different. Nor does the workbook provide automated error checking. The small, visual, software product provides the additional flexibility and error checking. This paper presents the feedback to project.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index, Economic Price Adjustment, contracts, visualization tools, database, reports, forms, event procedures.

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Authors: Pradeep M., N. S. Mahesh, Raja Hussain

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Resistance spot welding (RSW) has been used widely to join sheet metals. It has been a challenge to get required weld quality in spot welding of dissimilar thickness materials. Weld parameters are not generally available in standards for thickness beyond 4mm. This paper presents the welding process design and parameter optimization of RSW used in joining of low carbon steel sheet of thickness 0.8 mm and metal strips of cross section 10 x 5mm for electrical motor applications. Taguchi quality design was adopted for weld current and time optimization using L9 orthogonal array. Optimum process parameters (current- 3.5kA and time- 10 cycles) were obtained from the Taguchi analysis and shear test results. Confirmation experiment result revealed that the weld quality was within acceptable interval. Further, numerical simulation of RSW process was carried out with selected weld parameters to quantify the temperature at faying surface and check for formation of appropriate nugget. The nugget geometry measured after peel test and predicted from numerical validation method were similar and in accordance with the standards.

Keywords: Resistance spot welding, dissimilar thickness, weld parameters, Taguchi method, numerical modeling.

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Authors: Limin Zhao, Xingfa Gu, C. Tao Yu

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one of the significant factors for improving the accuracy of Land Surface Temperature (LST) retrieval is the correct understanding of the directional anisotropy for thermal radiance. In this paper, the multiple scattering effect between heterogeneous non-isothermal surfaces is described rigorously according to the concept of configuration factor, based on which a directional thermal radiance model is built, and the directional radiant character for urban canopy is analyzed. The model is applied to a simple urban canopy with row structure to simulate the change of Directional Brightness Temperature (DBT). The results show that the DBT is aggrandized because of the multiple scattering effects, whereas the change range of DBT is smoothed. The temperature difference, spatial distribution, emissivity of the components can all lead to the change of DBT. The “hot spot" phenomenon occurs when the proportion of high temperature component in the vision field came to a head. On the other hand, the “cool spot" phenomena occur when low temperature proportion came to the head. The “spot" effect disappears only when the proportion of every component keeps invariability. The model built in this paper can be used for the study of directional effect on emissivity, the LST retrieval over urban areas and the adjacency effect of thermal remote sensing pixels.

Keywords: Directional thermal radiance, multiple scattering, configuration factor, urban canopy, hot spot effect

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Authors: Ashiquer Rahman, Ummey Salma, Afrin Jannat

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Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study in relation between the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: price of the wellhead, domestic output, and Gross National Product (GNP) constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: Price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity.

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Authors: S. Homrossukon, W. Parinyasart

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This is an applied research to propose the method for price quotation for a contract electronics manufacturer. It has had a precise price quoting method but such method could not quickly provide a result as the customer required. This reduces the ability of company to compete in this kind of business. In this case, the cause of long time quotation process was analyzed. A lot of product features have been demanded by customer. By checking routine processes, it was found that high fraction of quoting time was used for production time estimating which has effected to the manufacturing or production cost. Then the historical data of products including types, number of components, assembling method, and their assembling time were used to analyze the key components affecting to production time. The price quoting model then was proposed. The implementation of proposed model was able to remarkably reduce quoting time with an acceptable required precision.

Keywords: Price quoting, Contract manufacturer, Stepwise technique, Best subset technique.

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Authors: S. Pathomsiri, P. Sukaboon

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The National Blood Center, Thai Red Cross Society is responsible for providing blood to hospitals all over the country. When any hospital needs blood, it will have to send the vehicle to pick up at the NBC. There are a lot of vehicles to pick up blood at the NBC every day. Each vehicle is usually empty for inbound trip and a little loaded for outbound. The NBC realized such waste or loss and there have been the third party offered to distribute blood and charge for fee. This paper proposes to apply the vehicle routing problem (VRP) for estimating the fair price. The idea is tested with the real data during seven-day period of 6 – 12 July 2010 to estimate the fair price for transporting blood in Bangkok Metropolitan Region.

Keywords: Blood Supply Chain, Vehicle Routing Problem, Heuristic, Saving Algorithm, Fair Price.

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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Authors: Jingxian An, Wei Yu

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The commercial value (retail price) of wine is mostly determined by the wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence. This paper reveals that wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence are favourably correlated, hence positively influencing the commercial value of Pinot noir wines. Oak influence is the most influential of these three sensory attributes on the price set by wine traders and estimated by experienced customers. In the meanwhile, this study gives winemakers with chemical instructions for raising total phenolics, which can improve wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence, all of which can increase a wine’s economic worth.

Keywords: Retail price, ageing potential, wine quality, oak influence.

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Authors: T. C. B. N. Assunção, J. L. Silvino, P. Resende

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The winding hot-spot temperature is one of the most critical parameters that affect the useful life of the power transformers. The winding hot-spot temperature can be calculated as function of the top-oil temperature that can estimated by using the ambient temperature and transformer loading measured data. This paper proposes the estimation of the top-oil temperature by using a method based on Least Squares Support Vector Machines approach. The estimated top-oil temperature is compared with measured data of a power transformer in operation. The results are also compared with methods based on the IEEE Standard C57.91-1995/2000 and Artificial Neural Networks. It is shown that the Least Squares Support Vector Machines approach presents better performance than the methods based in the IEEE Standard C57.91-1995/2000 and artificial neural networks.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Hot-spot Temperature, Least Squares Support Vector, Top-oil Temperature.

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Authors: F. Rahnamay Roodposhti, M. Falah Shams, H. Kordlouie

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The aim of the article is extending and developing econometrics and network structure based methods which are able to distinguish price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. The principal goal of the present study is to offer model for approximating price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. In order to do so by applying separation method a sample consisting of 397 companies accepted at Tehran stock exchange were selected and information related to their price and volume of trades during years 2001 until 2009 were collected and then through performing runs test, skewness test and duration correlative test the selected companies were divided into 2 sets of manipulated and non manipulated companies. In the next stage by investigating cumulative return process and volume of trades in manipulated companies, the date of starting price manipulation was specified and in this way the logit model, artificial neural network, multiple discriminant analysis and by using information related to size of company, clarity of information, ratio of P/E and liquidity of stock one year prior price manipulation; a model for forecasting price manipulation of stocks of companies present in Tehran stock exchange were designed. At the end the power of forecasting models were studied by using data of test set. Whereas the power of forecasting logit model for test set was 92.1%, for artificial neural network was 94.1% and multi audit analysis model was 90.2%; therefore all of the 3 aforesaid models has high power to forecast price manipulation and there is no considerable difference among forecasting power of these 3 models.

Keywords: Price Manipulation, Liquidity, Size of Company, Floating Stock, Information Clarity

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: Deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction.

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Authors: H. D. Ibrahim, H. C. Chinwenyi, A. H. Usman

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Valuing derivatives (options, futures, swaps, forwards, etc.) is one uneasy task in financial mathematics. The two ways this problem can be effectively resolved in finance is by the use of two methods (Martingales and Partial Differential Equations (PDEs)) to obtain their respective options price valuation formulas. This research paper examined two different stochastic financial models which are Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model and Black-Karasinski term structure model. Assuming their respective option price valuation formulas, we proved the analogous of the Martingales and PDEs options price valuation formulas for the two different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models. This was accomplished by using the applications of Girsanov theorem for defining an Equivalent Martingale Measure (EMM) and the Feynman-Kac theorem. The results obtained show the systematic proof for analogous of the two (Martingales and PDEs) options price valuation formulas beginning with the Martingales option price formula and arriving back at the Black-Scholes parabolic PDEs and vice versa.

Keywords: Option price valuation, Martingales, Partial Differential Equations, PDEs, Equivalent Martingale Measure, Girsanov Theorem, Feyman-Kac Theorem, European Put Option.

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Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Alfred V Gborie

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Rice, which is the staple food in Sierra Leone, is consumed on a daily basis. It is the most imperative food crop extensively grown by farmers across all ecologies in the country. Though much attention is now given to rice grain production through the small holder commercialization programme (SHCP), however, no attention has been given in investigating the limitations faced by rice producers. This paper will contribute to attempts to overcome the development challenges caused by food insecurity. The objective of this paper is thus, to analysis the relationship between rice production and the domestic retail price of rice. The study employed a log linear model in which, the quantity of rice produced is the dependent variable, quantity of rice imported, price of imported rice and price of domestic rice as explanatory variables. Findings showed that, locally produced rice is even more expensive than the imported rice per ton, and almost all the inhabitants in the capital city which hosts about 65% of the entire population of the country favor imported rice, as it is free from stones with other impurities. On the other hand, to control price and simultaneously increase rice production, the government should purchase the rice from the farmers and then sell to private retailers.

Keywords: Domestic price of rice, Econometric model, Rice production, Sierra Leone.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

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This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R² of 0.8428 and R² (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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Authors: Zeynep İltüzer Samur, Gül Tekin Temur

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Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.

Keywords: Option Pricing, Neural Network, S&P 100 Index, American/European options

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Authors: Aussadavut Dumrongsiri

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Westudy a dual-channel supply chain under decentralized setting in which manufacturer sells to retailer and to customers directly usingan online channel. A customer chooses the purchase-channel based on price and service quality. Also, to buy product from the retail store, the customer incurs a transportation cost influenced by the fluctuating gasoline cost. Both companies are under the revenue sharing contract. In this contract the retailer share a portion of the revenue to the manufacturer while the manufacturer will charge the lower wholesales price. The numerical result shows that the effects of gasoline costs, the revenue sharing ratio and the wholesale price play an important role in determining optimal prices. The result shows that when the gasoline price fluctuatesthe optimal on-line priceis relatively stable while the optimal retail price moves in the opposite direction of the gasoline prices.

Keywords: direct-channel, e-business, pricing model, dualchannel supply chain, gasoline cost, revenue sharing

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Authors: Yousef S. Al-Othman

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The growth and expansion of the industrial facilities comes proportional to the market increasing demand of products and services. Furthermore, raw material producers such as oil companies usually undergo massive revamping projects to maintain a synchronized supply. These revamping projects are usually delivered through challenging construction projects held and associated with daily site risks related to the construction process. Henceforth, a case study related to these risks and corresponding on-spot corrective measurements has been made on a certain number of construction project contractors at Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) to derive the benefits and overall effectiveness of the on-spot corrective measurements during the construction phase of a project, and how would the same help in avoiding major incidents, ensuring a smooth, cost effective and on time delivery of the project. Findings of this case study shall have an added value to the overall risk management process by minimizing the daily site risks that may affect the project lead time, resulting in an undisturbed on-site construction process.

Keywords: Oil and gas, risk management, construction projects, project lead time.

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Authors: H. L. Yim, S. H. Lee, S. K. Yoo, J. J. Kim

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This study proposes a materials procurement contracts model to which the zero-cost collar option is applied for heading price fluctuation risks in construction.The material contract model based on the collar option that consists of the call option striking zone of the construction company(the buyer) following the materials price increase andthe put option striking zone of the material vendor(the supplier) following a materials price decrease. This study first determined the call option strike price Xc of the construction company by a simple approach: it uses the predicted profit at the project starting point and then determines the strike price of put option Xp that has an identical option value, which completes the zero-cost material contract.The analysis results indicate that the cost saving of the construction company increased as Xc decreased. This was because the critical level of the steel materials price increasewas set at a low level. However, as Xc decreased, Xpof a put option that had an identical option value gradually increased. Cost saving increased as Xc decreased. However, as Xp gradually increased, the risk of loss from a construction company increased as the steel materials price decreased. Meanwhile, cost saving did not occur for the construction company, because of volatility. This result originated in the zero-cost features of the two-way contract of the collar option. In the case of the regular one-way option, the transaction cost had to be subtracted from the cost saving. The transaction cost originated from an option value that fluctuated with the volatility. That is, the cost saving of the one-way option was affected by the volatility. Meanwhile, even though the collar option with zero transaction cost cut the connection between volatility and cost saving, there was a risk of exercising the put option.

Keywords: Construction materials, Supply chain management, Procurement, Payment, Collar option

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Authors: Essam A. Al-Bahkali, Mahir H. Es-saheb, Jonny Herwan

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In this study the elastic-plastic stress distribution in weld-bonded joint, fabricated from austenitic stainless steel (AISI 304) sheet of 1.00 mm thickness and Epoxy adhesive Araldite 2011, subjected to axial loading is investigated. This is needed to improve design procedures and welding codes, and saving efforts in the cumbersome experiments and analysis. Therefore, a complete 3-D finite element modelling and analysis of spot welded, bonded and weld-bonded joints under axial loading conditions is carried out. A comprehensive systematic experimental program is conducted to determine many properties and quantities, of the base metals and the adhesive, needed for FE modelling, such like the elastic – plastic properties, modulus of elasticity, fracture limit, the nugget and heat affected zones (HAZ) properties, etc. Consequently, the finite element models developed, for each case, are used to evaluate stresses distributions across the entire joint, in both the elastic and plastic regions. The stress distribution curves are obtained, particularly in the elastic regions and found to be consistent and in excellent agreement with the published data. Furthermore, the stresses distributions are obtained in the weld-bonded joint and display the best results with almost uniform smooth distribution compared to spot and bonded cases. The stress concentration peaks at the edges of the weld-bonded region, are almost eliminated resulting in achieving the strongest joint of all processes.

Keywords: Spot Welded, Weld-Bonded, Load-Displacement curve, Stress distribution

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Authors: Fajaruddin Mustakim, Motohiro Fujita

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This paper present the study carried out of accident analysis, black spot study and to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected at rural roadway, Federal Route 50 (F050) Malaysia. The road accident trends and black spot ranking were established on the F050. The development of the accident prediction model will concentrate in Parit Raja area from KM 19 to KM 23. Multiple non-linear regression method was used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variable. The dependent variable was modeled as the number of crashes namely accident point weighting, however accident point weighting have rarely been account in the road accident prediction Models. The result show that, the existing number of major access points, without traffic light, rise in speed, increasing number of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), growing number of motorcycle and motorcar and reducing the time gap are the potential contributors of increment accident rates on multiple rural roadway.

Keywords: Accident Trends, Black Spot Study, Accident Prediction Model

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Authors: Norasiah Muhammad, Yupiter HP Manurung

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This paper investigates the development of weld zone in Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) which focuses on weld nugget and Heat Affected Zone (HAZ). The effects of four factors namely weld current, weld time, electrode force and hold time were studied using a general 24 factorial design augmented by five centre points. The results of the analysis showed that all selected factors except hold time exhibit significant effect on weld nugget radius and HAZ size. Optimization of the welding parameters (weld current, weld time and electrode force) to normalize weld nugget and to minimize HAZ size was then conducted using Central Composite Design (CCD) in Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and the optimum parameters were determined. A regression model for radius of weld nugget and HAZ size was developed and its adequacy was evaluated. The experimental results obtained under optimum operating conditions were then compared with the predicted values and were found to agree satisfactorily with each other

Keywords: Factorial design, Optimization, Resistance Spot Welding (RSW), Response Surface Methodology (RSM).

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Authors: M. Stoklasa, H. Starzyczna, K. Matusinska

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This article deals with the perceived quality of regional products in the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic. Research was focused on finding out what do consumers perceive as a quality product and what characteristics make a quality product. The data were obtained by questionnaire survey andanalysed by IBM SPSS. From the thousands of respondents the representative sample of 719 for MS region was created based on demographic factors of gender, age, education and income. The research analysis disclosed that consumers in MS region are still price oriented and that the preference of quality over price does not depend on regional brand knowledge.

Keywords: Regional brands, quality products, characteristics of quality, quality over price.

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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Authors: Somphoom Sawaengkun

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The purpose of this study was primarily assessing how important economic factors namely: The Thai export price of white rice, the exchange rate, and the world rice consumption affect the overall Thai white rice export, using historical data during the period 1989-2013 from the Thai Rice Exporters Association, and Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. The co-integration method, regression analysis, and error correction model were applied to investigate the econometric model. The findings indicated that in the long-run, the world rice consumption, the exchange rate, and the Thai export price of white rice were the important factors affecting the export quantity of Thai white rice respectively, as indicated by their significant coefficients. Meanwhile, the rice export price was an important factor affecting the export quantity of Thai white rice in the short-run. This information is useful in the business, export opportunities, price competitiveness, and policymaker in Thailand.

Keywords: Economic Factors, Rice Export, White Rice.

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Authors: Costin Badica, Maria Ganzha, Maciej Gawinecki, Pawel Kobzdej, Marcin Paprzycki

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Recently, we have presented an initial implementation of a model agent-based e-commerce system, which utilized a simple price negotiation mechanism–English Auction. In this note we discuss how a Dutch Auction involving multiple units of a product can be included in our system. We present UML diagrams of agents involved in price negotiations and briefly discuss rule-based mechanism exemplifying Dutch Auction.

Keywords: e-commerce, rule-based price negotiation mechanism, Dutch Auction, agent system.

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Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta, Amey Kambli

Abstract:

Perishable goods constitute a large portion of retailer inventory and lose value with time due to deterioration and/or obsolescence. Retailers dealing with such goods required considering the factors of short shelf life and the dependency of sales on inventory displayed in determining optimal procurement policy. Many retailers follow the practice of using two bins - primary bin sales fresh items at a list price and secondary bin sales unsold items at a discount price transferred from primary bin on attaining certain age. In this paper, mathematical models are developed for primary bin and for secondary bin that maximizes profit with decision variables of order quantities, optimal review period and optimal selling price at secondary bin. The demand rates in two bins are assumed to be deterministic and dependent on displayed inventory level, price and age but independent of each other. The validity of the model is shown by solving an example and the sensitivity analysis of the model is also reported.

Keywords: Retail Inventory, Perishable Products, Two Bin, Profitable Sales.

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