Search results for: probability.

Authors: Jatinderkumar R. Saini, Apurva A. Desai

Abstract:

e-mail has become an important means of electronic communication but the viability of its usage is marred by Unsolicited Bulk e-mail (UBE) messages. UBE consists of many types like pornographic, virus infected and 'cry-for-help' messages as well as fake and fraudulent offers for jobs, winnings and medicines. UBE poses technical and socio-economic challenges to usage of e-mails. To meet this challenge and combat this menace, we need to understand UBE. Towards this end, the current paper presents a content-based textual analysis of more than 2700 body enhancement medicinal UBE. Technically, this is an application of Text Parsing and Tokenization for an un-structured textual document and we approach it using Bag Of Words (BOW) and Vector Space Document Model techniques. We have attempted to identify the most frequently occurring lexis in the UBE documents that advertise various products for body enhancement. The analysis of such top 100 lexis is also presented. We exhibit the relationship between occurrence of a word from the identified lexis-set in the given UBE and the probability that the given UBE will be the one advertising for fake medicinal product. To the best of our knowledge and survey of related literature, this is the first formal attempt for identification of most frequently occurring lexis in such UBE by its textual analysis. Finally, this is a sincere attempt to bring about alertness against and mitigate the threat of such luring but fake UBE.

Keywords: Body Enhancement, Lexis, Medicinal, Unsolicited Bulk e-mail (UBE), Vector Space Document Model, Viagra

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Authors: Maha Salah Abdullah Ismail, Mahmoud M. Alsagheir, Mohammed Salah Abd Allah

Abstract:

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is characterized by permeability pulmonary edema and refractory hypoxemia. Lung-protective ventilation is still the key of better outcome in ARDS. Prone position reduces the trans-pulmonary pressure gradient, recruiting collapsed regions of the lung without increasing airway pressure or hyperinflation. Prone ventilation showed improved oxygenation and improved outcomes in severe hypoxemic patients with ARDS. This study evaluates the effect of prone positioning on mechanically ventilated patients with ARDS. A quasi-experimental design was carried out at Critical Care Units, on 60 patients. Two tools were utilized to collect data; Socio demographic, medical and clinical outcomes data sheet. Results of the present study indicated that prone position improves oxygenation in patients with severe respiratory distress syndrome. The study recommended that use prone position in patients with severe ARDS, as early as possible and for long sessions. Also, replication of this study on larger probability sample at the different geographical location is highly recommended.

Keywords: Acute respiratory distress syndrome, Critical care, Mechanical ventilation and Prone position.

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Authors: Mokhtar Kouki Inès Rekik

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the assessment of the air pollution and morbidity relationship in Tunisia. Air pollution is measured by ozone air concentration and the morbidity is measured by the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days during the 2-week period prior to the interview. Socioeconomic data are also collected in order to adjust for any confounding covariates. Our sample is composed by 407 Tunisian respondents; 44.7% are women, the average age is 35.2, near 69% are living in a house built after 1980, and 27.8% have reported at least one day of respiratory-related restricted activity. The model consists on the regression of the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days on the air quality measure and the socioeconomic covariates. In order to correct for zero-inflation and heterogeneity, we estimate several models (Poisson, negative binomial, zero inflated Poisson, Poisson hurdle, negative binomial hurdle and finite mixture Poisson models). Bootstrapping and post-stratification techniques are used in order to correct for any sample bias. According to the Akaike information criteria, the hurdle negative binomial model has the greatest goodness of fit. The main result indicates that, after adjusting for socioeconomic data, the ozone concentration increases the probability of positive number of restricted activity days.

Keywords: Bootstrapping, hurdle negbin model, overdispersion, ozone concentration, respiratory-related restricted activity days.

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Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

Abstract:

For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: Differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization.

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Authors: Kathaleeya Chanda, Panupong Chanplin, Suppara Charoenpoom

Abstract:

This purposes of the development of creative instruction model through digital media are to: 1) enable learners to learn from instruction media application; 2) help learners implementing instruction media correctly and appropriately; and 3) facilitate learners to apply technology for searching information and practicing skills to implement technology creatively. The sample group consists of 130 cases of secondary students studying in Bo Kluea School, Bo Kluea Nuea Sub-district, Bo Kluea District, Nan Province. The probability sampling was selected through the simple random sampling and the statistics used in this research are percentage, mean, standard deviation and one group pretest – posttest design. The findings are summarized as follows: The congruence index of instruction media for occupation and technology subjects is appropriate. By comparing between learning achievements before implementing the instruction media and learning achievements after implementing the instruction media, it is found that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. For the learning achievements from instruction media implementation, pretest mean is 16.24 while posttest mean is 26.28. Besides, pretest and posttest results are compared and differences of mean are tested, the test results show that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. This can be interpreted that the learners achieve better learning progress.

Keywords: Teaching learning model, digital media, creative instruction model, facilitate learners.

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Authors: B. Thiagarajan, R. Bremananth

Abstract:

Tumor is an uncontrolled growth of tissues in any part of the body. Tumors are of different types and they have different characteristics and treatments. Brain tumor is inherently serious and life-threatening because of its character in the limited space of the intracranial cavity (space formed inside the skull). Locating the tumor within MR (magnetic resonance) image of brain is integral part of the treatment of brain tumor. This segmentation task requires classification of each voxel as either tumor or non-tumor, based on the description of the voxel under consideration. Many studies are going on in the medical field using Markov Random Fields (MRF) in segmentation of MR images. Even though the segmentation process is better, computing the probability and estimation of parameters is difficult. In order to overcome the aforementioned issues, Conditional Random Field (CRF) is used in this paper for segmentation, along with the modified artificial bee colony optimization and modified fuzzy possibility c-means (MFPCM) algorithm. This work is mainly focused to reduce the computational complexities, which are found in existing methods and aimed at getting higher accuracy. The efficiency of this work is evaluated using the parameters such as region non-uniformity, correlation and computation time. The experimental results are compared with the existing methods such as MRF with improved Genetic Algorithm (GA) and MRF-Artificial Bee Colony (MRF-ABC) algorithm.

Keywords: Conditional random field, Magnetic resonance, Markov random field, Modified artificial bee colony.

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Authors: Sunitha Ramanujam, Hany El Yamany, Miriam A. M. Capretz

Abstract:

Software reliability, defined as the probability of a software system or application functioning without failure or errors over a defined period of time, has been an important area of research for over three decades. Several research efforts aimed at developing models to improve reliability are currently underway. One of the most popular approaches to software reliability adopted by some of these research efforts involves the use of operational profiles to predict how software applications will be used. Operational profiles are a quantification of usage patterns for a software application. The research presented in this paper investigates an innovative multiagent framework for automatic creation and management of operational profiles for generic distributed systems after their release into the market. The architecture of the proposed Operational Profile MAS (Multi-Agent System) is presented along with detailed descriptions of the various models arrived at following the analysis and design phases of the proposed system. The operational profile in this paper is extended to comprise seven different profiles. Further, the criticality of operations is defined using a new composed metrics in order to organize the testing process as well as to decrease the time and cost involved in this process. A prototype implementation of the proposed MAS is included as proof-of-concept and the framework is considered as a step towards making distributed systems intelligent and self-managing.

Keywords: Software reliability, Software testing, Metrics, Distributed systems, Multi-agent systems

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Authors: Loai AbdAllah, Mahmoud Kaiyal

Abstract:

Missing values in real-world datasets are a common problem. Many algorithms were developed to deal with this problem, most of them replace the missing values with a fixed value that was computed based on the observed values. In our work, we used a distance function based on Bhattacharyya distance to measure the distance between objects with missing values. Bhattacharyya distance, which measures the similarity of two probability distributions. The proposed distance distinguishes between known and unknown values. Where the distance between two known values is the Mahalanobis distance. When, on the other hand, one of them is missing the distance is computed based on the distribution of the known values, for the coordinate that contains the missing value. This method was integrated with Wikaya, a digital health company developing a platform that helps to improve prevention of chronic diseases such as diabetes and cancer. In order for Wikaya’s recommendation system to work distance between users need to be measured. Since there are missing values in the collected data, there is a need to develop a distance function distances between incomplete users profiles. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed distance function in reflecting the actual similarity between different objects, when some of them contain missing values, we integrated it within the framework of k nearest neighbors (kNN) classifier, since its computation is based only on the similarity between objects. To validate this, we ran the algorithm over diabetes and breast cancer datasets, standard benchmark datasets from the UCI repository. Our experiments show that kNN classifier using our proposed distance function outperforms the kNN using other existing methods.

Keywords: Missing values, distance metric, Bhattacharyya distance.

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: Generalized extreme values (GEV), likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution.

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Authors: Avadhoot Bhosale, Robin Davis P., Pradip Sarkar

Abstract:

The seismic performance of buildings with irregular distribution of mass, stiffness and strength along the height may be significantly different from that of regular buildings with masonry infill. Masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frames are very common structural forms used for multi-storey building construction. These structures are found to perform better in past earthquakes owing to additional strength, stiffness and energy dissipation in the infill walls. The seismic performance of a building depends on the variation of material, structural and geometrical properties. The sensitivity of these properties affects the seismic response of the building. The main objective of the sensitivity analysis is to found out the most sensitive parameter that affects the response of the building. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis by considering 5% and 95% probability value of random variable in the infills characteristics, trying to obtain a reasonable range of results representing a wide number of possible situations that can be met in practice by using pushover analysis. The results show that the strength-related variation values of concrete and masonry, with the exception of tensile strength of the concrete, have shown a significant effect on the structural performance and that this effect increases with the progress of damage condition for the concrete. The seismic risk assessments of the selected frames are expressed in terms of reliability index.

Keywords: Fragility curve, sensitivity analysis, reliability index, RC frames.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Linking social needs to social classes using different criteria may lead to social services misuse. The paper discusses using ML and Neural Networks (NNs) in linking public services in Scotland in the long term and advocates, this can result in a reduction of the services cost connecting resources needed in groups for similar services. The paper combines typical regression models with clustering and cross-correlation as complementary constituents to predict the demand. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack linked services such as those offered to the elderly or to low-income people in the longer term. The work is based on public data from 22 services offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and from the Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019 that are broken into 110 years series called factors and uses Linear Regression (LR), Autoregression (ARMA) and 3 types of back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks (BPNN) to link them under specific conditions. Relationships found were between smoking related healthcare provision, mental health-related health services, and epidemiological weight in Primary 1(Education) Body Mass Index (BMI) in children. Primary component analysis (PCA) found 11 significant factors while C-Means (CM) clustering gave 5 major factors clusters.

Keywords: Probability, cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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Authors: P. K. Singhal, R. Naresh, V. Sharma

Abstract:

This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, economic dispatch, unit commitment, wind power.

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Authors: P. K. Singhal, R. Naresh, V. Sharma

Abstract:

This paper presents the three optimization models, namely New Binary Artificial Bee Colony (NBABC) algorithm, NBABC with Local Search (NBABC-LS), and NBABC with Genetic Crossover (NBABC-GC) for solving the Wind-Thermal Unit Commitment (WTUC) problem. The uncertain nature of the wind power is incorporated using the Weibull probability density function, which is used to calculate the overestimation and underestimation costs associated with the wind power fluctuation. The NBABC algorithm utilizes a mechanism based on the dissimilarity measure between binary strings for generating the binary solutions in WTUC problem. In NBABC algorithm, an intelligent scout bee phase is proposed that replaces the abandoned solution with the global best solution. The local search operator exploits the neighboring region of the current solutions, whereas the integration of genetic crossover with the NBABC algorithm increases the diversity in the search space and thus avoids the problem of local trappings encountered with the NBABC algorithm. These models are then used to decide the units on/off status, whereas the lambda iteration method is used to dispatch the hourly load demand among the committed units. The effectiveness of the proposed models is validated on an IEEE 10-unit thermal system combined with a wind farm over the planning period of 24 hours.

Keywords: Artificial bee colony algorithm, economic dispatch, unit commitment, wind power.

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Authors: Wafa' S.Al-Sharafat, Reyadh Naoum

Abstract:

Society has grown to rely on Internet services, and the number of Internet users increases every day. As more and more users become connected to the network, the window of opportunity for malicious users to do their damage becomes very great and lucrative. The objective of this paper is to incorporate different techniques into classier system to detect and classify intrusion from normal network packet. Among several techniques, Steady State Genetic-based Machine Leaning Algorithm (SSGBML) will be used to detect intrusions. Where Steady State Genetic Algorithm (SSGA), Simple Genetic Algorithm (SGA), Modified Genetic Algorithm and Zeroth Level Classifier system are investigated in this research. SSGA is used as a discovery mechanism instead of SGA. SGA replaces all old rules with new produced rule preventing old good rules from participating in the next rule generation. Zeroth Level Classifier System is used to play the role of detector by matching incoming environment message with classifiers to determine whether the current message is normal or intrusion and receiving feedback from environment. Finally, in order to attain the best results, Modified SSGA will enhance our discovery engine by using Fuzzy Logic to optimize crossover and mutation probability. The experiments and evaluations of the proposed method were performed with the KDD 99 intrusion detection dataset.

Keywords: MSSGBML, Network Intrusion Detection, SGA, SSGA.

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Authors: Brahmjit Singh

Abstract:

Mobile IP has been developed to provide the continuous information network access to mobile users. In IP-based mobile networks, location management is an important component of mobility management. This management enables the system to track the location of mobile node between consecutive communications. It includes two important tasks- location update and call delivery. Location update is associated with signaling load. Frequent updates lead to degradation in the overall performance of the network and the underutilization of the resources. It is, therefore, required to devise the mechanism to minimize the update rate. Mobile IPv6 (MIPv6) and Hierarchical MIPv6 (HMIPv6) have been the potential candidates for deployments in mobile IP networks for mobility management. HMIPv6 through studies has been shown with better performance as compared to MIPv6. It reduces the signaling overhead traffic by making registration process local. In this paper, we present performance analysis of MIPv6 and HMIPv6 using an analytical model. Location update cost function is formulated based on fluid flow mobility model. The impact of cell residence time, cell residence probability and user-s mobility is investigated. Numerical results are obtained and presented in graphical form. It is shown that HMIPv6 outperforms MIPv6 for high mobility users only and for low mobility users; performance of both the schemes is almost equivalent to each other.

Keywords: Wireless networks, Mobile IP networks, Mobility management, performance analysis, Handover.

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Authors: Azhar Rauf, Sareer Badshah, Shah Khusro

Abstract:

This paper analyzes different techniques of the fine grained security of relational databases for the two variables-data accessibility and inference. Data accessibility measures the amount of data available to the users after applying a security technique on a table. Inference is the proportion of information leakage after suppressing a cell containing secret data. A row containing a secret cell which is suppressed can become a security threat if an intruder generates useful information from the related visible information of the same row. This paper measures data accessibility and inference associated with row, cell, and column level security techniques. Cell level security offers greatest data accessibility as it suppresses secret data only. But on the other hand, there is a high probability of inference in cell level security. Row and column level security techniques have least data accessibility and inference. This paper introduces cell plus innocent security technique that utilizes the cell level security method but suppresses some innocent data to dodge an intruder that a suppressed cell may not necessarily contain secret data. Four variations of the technique namely cell plus innocent 1/4, cell plus innocent 2/4, cell plus innocent 3/4, and cell plus innocent 4/4 respectively have been introduced to suppress innocent data equal to 1/4, 2/4, 3/4, and 4/4 percent of the true secret data inside the database. Results show that the new technique offers better control over data accessibility and inference as compared to the state-of-theart security techniques. This paper further discusses the combination of techniques together to be used. The paper shows that cell plus innocent 1/4, 2/4, and 3/4 techniques can be used as a replacement for the cell level security.

Keywords: Fine Grained Security, Data Accessibility, Inference, Row, Cell, Column Level Security.

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Authors: Jiqing Han, Rongchun Gao

Abstract:

One major source of performance decline in speaker recognition system is channel mismatch between training and testing. This paper focuses on improving channel robustness of speaker recognition system in two aspects of channel compensation technique and channel robust features. The system is text-independent speaker identification system based on two-stage recognition. In the aspect of channel compensation technique, this paper applies MAP (Maximum A Posterior Probability) channel compensation technique, which was used in speech recognition, to speaker recognition system. In the aspect of channel robust features, this paper introduces pitch-dependent features and pitch-dependent speaker model for the second stage recognition. Based on the first stage recognition to testing speech using GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model), the system uses GMM scores to decide if it needs to be recognized again. If it needs to, the system selects a few speakers from all of the speakers who participate in the first stage recognition for the second stage recognition. For each selected speaker, the system obtains 3 pitch-dependent results from his pitch-dependent speaker model, and then uses ANN (Artificial Neural Network) to unite the 3 pitch-dependent results and 1 GMM score for getting a fused result. The system makes the second stage recognition based on these fused results. The experiments show that the correct rate of two-stage recognition system based on MAP channel compensation technique and pitch-dependent features is 41.7% better than the baseline system for closed-set test.

Keywords: Channel Compensation, Channel Robustness, MAP, Speaker Identification

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Authors: Ali Jahanfar, Brajesh Dubey, Bahram Gharabaghi, Saber Bayat Movahed

Abstract:

Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Keywords: Landfill failure, waste flow, Voellmy rheology, friction coefficient, waste compaction and type.

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Authors: F. Mehran

Abstract:

With the rapid popularization of internet services, it is apparent that the next generation terrestrial communication systems must be capable of supporting various applications like voice, video, and data. This paper presents the performance evaluation of turbo- coded mobile terrestrial communication systems, which are capable of providing high quality services for delay sensitive (voice or video) and delay tolerant (text transmission) multimedia applications in urban and suburban areas. Different types of multimedia information require different service qualities, which are generally expressed in terms of a maximum acceptable bit-error-rate (BER) and maximum tolerable latency. The breakthrough discovery of turbo codes allows us to significantly reduce the probability of bit errors with feasible latency. In a turbo-coded system, a trade-off between latency and BER results from the choice of convolutional component codes, interleaver type and size, decoding algorithm, and the number of decoding iterations. This trade-off can be exploited for multimedia applications by using optimal and suboptimal performance parameter amalgamations to achieve different service qualities. The results are therefore proposing an adaptive framework for turbo-coded wireless multimedia communications which incorporate a set of performance parameters that achieve an appropriate set of service qualities, depending on the application's requirements.

Keywords: Mobile communications, Turbo codes, wireless multimedia communication systems.

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Authors: Nadheer A. Shalash, Abu Zaharin Bin Ahmad

Abstract:

Technological developments in industrial innovations have currently been related to interconnected system assistance and distribution networks. This important in order to enable an electrical load to continue receive power in the event of disconnection of load from the main power grid. This paper represents a method for reliability assessment of interconnected power systems based. The multi-agent system consists of four agents. The first agent was the generator agent to using as connected the generator to the grid depending on the state of the reserve margin and the load demand. The second was a load agent is that located at the load. Meanwhile, the third is so-called "the reverse margin agent" that to limit the reserve margin between 0 - 25% depend on the load and the unit size generator. In the end, calculation reliability Agent can be calculate expected energy not supplied (EENS), loss of load expectation (LOLE) and the effecting of tie line capacity to determine the risk levels Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) can use to evaluated the reliability indices by using the developed JADE package. The results estimated of the reliability interconnection power systems presented in this paper. The overall reliability of power system can be improved. Thus, the market becomes more concentrated against demand increasing and the generation units were operating in relation to reliability indices. 

Keywords: Reliability indices, Load expectation, Reserve margin, Daily load, Probability, Multi-agent system.

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Authors: A. Bajit, M. Nahid, A. Tamtaoui, E. H. Bouyakhf

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a Perceptually Optimized Embedded ZeroTree Image Coder (POEZIC) that introduces a perceptual weighting to wavelet transform coefficients prior to control SPIHT encoding algorithm in order to reach a targeted bit rate with a perceptual quality improvement with respect to the coding quality obtained using the SPIHT algorithm only. The paper also, introduces a new objective quality metric based on a Psychovisual model that integrates the properties of the HVS that plays an important role in our POEZIC quality assessment. Our POEZIC coder is based on a vision model that incorporates various masking effects of human visual system HVS perception. Thus, our coder weights the wavelet coefficients based on that model and attempts to increase the perceptual quality for a given bit rate and observation distance. The perceptual weights for all wavelet subbands are computed based on 1) luminance masking and Contrast masking, 2) the contrast sensitivity function CSF to achieve the perceptual decomposition weighting, 3) the Wavelet Error Sensitivity WES used to reduce the perceptual quantization errors. The new perceptually optimized codec has the same complexity as the original SPIHT techniques. However, the experiments results show that our coder demonstrates very good performance in terms of quality measurement.

Keywords: DWT, linear-phase 9/7 filter, 9/7 Wavelets Error Sensitivity WES, CSF implementation approaches, JND Just Noticeable Difference, Luminance masking, Contrast masking, standard SPIHT, Objective Quality Measure, Probability Score PS.

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Authors: Ilham Benali, Nasser Hajji, Nawfal Acha

Abstract:

Given the fact that the pharmaceutical industry is a commonly studied sector in the context of innovation, the majority of innovation research is devoted to the developed markets known by high research and development (R&D) assets and intensive innovation. In contrast, in developing countries where R&D assets are very low, there is relatively little research to mention in the area of pharmaceutical sector innovation, characterized mainly by two principal elements which are the presence of foreign-owned firms and licensed manufacturing agreements between local firms and multinationals. With the scarcity of research in this field, this paper attempts to study the effect of these two elements on the firms’ innovation tendencies. Other traditional factors that influence innovation, which are the age and the size of the firm, the R&D activities and the market structure, revealed in the literature review, will be included in the study in order to try to make this work more exhaustive. The study starts by examining innovation tendency in pharmaceutical firms located in developing countries before analyzing the effect of foreign-owned firms and licensed manufacturing agreements between local firms and multinationals on technological, organizational and marketing innovation. Based on the related work and on the theoretical framework developed, there is a probability that foreign-owned firms and licensed manufacturing agreements between local firms and multinationals have a negative influence on technological innovation. The opposite effect is possible in the case of organizational and marketing innovation.

Keywords: Developing countries, foreign owned firms, innovation, licensed manufacturing agreements, pharmaceutical industry.

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Authors: Sotirios N. Raptis

Abstract:

The paper links social needs to social classes by the creation of cohorts of public services matched as causes to other ones as effects using cause-effect (CE) models. It then compares these associations using CE and typical regression methods (LR, ARMA). The paper discusses such public service groupings offered in Scotland in the long term to estimate the risk of multiple causes or effects that can ultimately reduce the healthcare cost by linking the next services to the likely causes of them. The same generic goal can be achieved using LR or ARMA and differences are discussed. The work uses Health and Social Care (H&Sc) public services data from 11 service packs offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland that boil down to 110 single-attribute year series, called ’factors’. The study took place at Macmillan Cancer Support, UK and Abertay University, Dundee, from 2020 to 2023. The paper discusses CE relationships as a main method and compares sample findings with Linear Regression (LR), ARMA, to see how the services are linked. Relationships found were between smoking-related healthcare provision, mental-health-related services, and epidemiological weight in Primary-1-Education Body-Mass-Index (BMI) in children as CE models. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack CE-linked services in plans such as those for the elderly, low-income people, in the long term. The linkage of services was confirmed allowing more accurate resource planning.

Keywords: Probability, regression, cause-effect cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

Abstract:

Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include the cost of infrastructure, personnel, and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion, and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. This research aims to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using Machine Learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons, like overspeeding, etc., in the United States. These factors range from meteorological elements such as weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity, to human-made structures, like road structure components such as Bumps, Roundabouts, No Exit, Turning Loops, Give Away, etc. The probabilities are categorized into ten distinct classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes in all states collected by the US government. The probability of the crash was determined by employing Multinomial Expected Value, and a classification label was assigned accordingly. We applied three classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-depth insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: Road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning.

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Authors: Takeshi Takeda

Abstract:

An experiment utilizing the ROSA/LSTF (rig of safety assessment/large-scale test facility) simulated a 1.9% vessel upper head small-break loss-of-coolant accident with an accident management (AM) measure under the total failure of high-pressure injection system of emergency core cooling system in a pressurized water reactor. Steam generator (SG) secondary-side depressurization on the AM measure was started by fully opening relief valves in both SGs when the maximum core exit temperature rose to 623 K. A large increase took place in the cladding surface temperature of simulated fuel rods on account of a late and slow response of core exit thermocouples during core boil-off. The author analyzed the LSTF test by reference to the matrix of an integral effect test for the validation of a thermal-hydraulic system code. Problems remained in predicting the primary coolant distribution and the core exit temperature with the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code. The uncertainty analysis results of the RELAP5 code confirmed that the sample size with respect to the order statistics influences the value of peak cladding temperature with a 95% probability at a 95% confidence level, and the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient.

Keywords: LSTF, LOCA, uncertainty analysis, RELAP5.

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Authors: Bahaa Khalil, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, André St-Hilaire

Abstract:

The world economic crises and budget constraints have caused authorities, especially those in developing countries, to rationalize water quality monitoring activities. Rationalization consists of reducing the number of monitoring sites, the number of samples, and/or the number of water quality variables measured. The reduction in water quality variables is usually based on correlation. If two variables exhibit high correlation, it is an indication that some of the information produced may be redundant. Consequently, one variable can be discontinued, and the other continues to be measured. Later, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique is employed to reconstitute information about discontinued variable by using the continuously measured one as an explanatory variable. In this paper, two record extension techniques are employed to reconstitute information about discontinued water quality variables, the OLS and the Line of Organic Correlation (LOC). An empirical experiment is conducted using water quality records from the Nile Delta water quality monitoring network in Egypt. The record extension techniques are compared for their ability to predict different statistical parameters of the discontinued variables. Results show that the OLS is better at estimating individual water quality records. However, results indicate an underestimation of the variance in the extended records. The LOC technique is superior in preserving characteristics of the entire distribution and avoids underestimation of the variance. It is concluded from this study that the OLS can be used for the substitution of missing values, while LOC is preferable for inferring statements about the probability distribution.

Keywords: Record extension, record augmentation, monitoringnetworks, water quality indicators.

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Authors: Hye-Young Shin, Chan Kee Park

Abstract:

Background: To compare the thinning patterns of the ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) and peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) as measured using Cirrus high-definition optical coherence tomography (HD-OCT) in patients with visual field (VF) defects that respect the vertical meridian. Methods: Twenty eyes of eleven patients with VF defects that respect the vertical meridian were enrolled retrospectively. The thicknesses of the macular GCIPL and pRNFL were measured using Cirrus HD-OCT. The 5% and 1% thinning area index (TAI) was calculated as the proportion of abnormally thin sectors at the 5% and 1% probability level within the area corresponding to the affected VF. The 5% and 1% TAI were compared between the GCIPL and pRNFL measurements. Results: The color-coded GCIPL deviation map showed a characteristic vertical thinning pattern of the GCIPL, which is also seen in the VF of patients with brain lesions. The 5% and 1% TAI were significantly higher in the GCIPL measurements than in the pRNFL measurements (all P < 0.01). Conclusions: Macular GCIPL analysis clearly visualized a characteristic topographic pattern of retinal ganglion cell (RGC) loss in patients with VF defects that respect the vertical meridian, unlike pRNFL measurements. Macular GCIPL measurements provide more valuable information than pRNFL measurements for detecting the loss of RGCs in patients with retrograde degeneration of the optic nerve fibers.

Keywords: Brain lesion, Macular ganglion cell-Inner plexiform layer, Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography.

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Authors: Kanthida Kusonmano, Michael Netzer, Bernhard Pfeifer, Christian Baumgartner, Klaus R. Liedl, Armin Graber

Abstract:

Availability of high dimensional biological datasets such as from gene expression, proteomic, and metabolic experiments can be leveraged for the diagnosis and prognosis of diseases. Many classification methods in this area have been studied to predict disease states and separate between predefined classes such as patients with a special disease versus healthy controls. However, most of the existing research only focuses on a specific dataset. There is a lack of generic comparison between classifiers, which might provide a guideline for biologists or bioinformaticians to select the proper algorithm for new datasets. In this study, we compare the performance of popular classifiers, which are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression, k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, and Random Forest based on mock datasets. We mimic common biological scenarios simulating various proportions of real discriminating biomarkers and different effect sizes thereof. The result shows that SVM performs quite stable and reaches a higher AUC compared to other methods. This may be explained due to the ability of SVM to minimize the probability of error. Moreover, Decision Tree with its good applicability for diagnosis and prognosis shows good performance in our experimental setup. Logistic Regression and Random Forest, however, strongly depend on the ratio of discriminators and perform better when having a higher number of discriminators.

Keywords: Classification, High dimensional data, Machine learning

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Authors: Zaineb Ben Messaoud, Dorra Gargouri, Saida Zribi, Ahmed Ben Hamida

Abstract:

This paper presents a formant-tracking linear prediction (FTLP) model for speech processing in noise. The main focus of this work is the detection of formant trajectory based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM), for improved formant estimation in noise. The approach proposed in this paper provides a systematic framework for modelling and utilization of a time- sequence of peaks which satisfies continuity constraints on parameter; the within peaks are modelled by the LP parameters. The formant tracking LP model estimation is composed of three stages: (1) a pre-cleaning multi-band spectral subtraction stage to reduce the effect of residue noise on formants (2) estimation stage where an initial estimate of the LP model of speech for each frame is obtained (3) a formant classification using probability models of formants and Viterbi-decoders. The evaluation results for the estimation of the formant tracking LP model tested in Gaussian white noise background, demonstrate that the proposed combination of the initial noise reduction stage with formant tracking and LPC variable order analysis, results in a significant reduction in errors and distortions. The performance was evaluated with noisy natual vowels extracted from international french and English vocabulary speech signals at SNR value of 10dB. In each case, the estimated formants are compared to reference formants.

Keywords: Formants Estimation, HMM, Multi Band Spectral Subtraction, Variable order LPC coding, White Gauusien Noise.

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Authors: Ajab G. Majidi, Bilal Bingölbali, Adem Akpınar

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the amount of energy (economic wave energy potential) that can be obtained from the existing wave energy converters in the high wave energy potential region of the Black Sea in terms of wave energy potential and their performance at different depths in the region. The data needed for this purpose were obtained using the calibrated nested layered SWAN wave modeling program version 41.01AB, which was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) winds from 1979 to 2009. The wave dataset at a time interval of 2 hours was accumulated for a sub-grid domain for around Karaburun beach in Arnavutkoy, a district of Istanbul city. The annual sea state characteristic matrices for the five different depths along with a vertical line to the coastline were calculated for 31 years. According to the power matrices of different wave energy converter systems and characteristic matrices for each possible installation depth, the probability distribution tables of the specified mean wave period or wave energy period and significant wave height were calculated. Then, by using the relationship between these distribution tables, according to the present wave climate, the energy that the wave energy converter systems at each depth can produce was determined. Thus, the economically feasible potential of the relevant coastal zone was revealed, and the effect of different depths on energy converter systems is presented. The Oceantic at 50, 75 and 100 m depths and Oyster at 5 and 25 m depths presents the best performance. In the 31-year long period 1998 the most and 1989 is the least dynamic year.

Keywords: Annual power production, Black Sea, efficiency, power production performance, wave energy converter.

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