Search results for: Load dependent transit time
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8198

Search results for: Load dependent transit time

3188 Approximation Algorithm for the Shortest Approximate Common Superstring Problem

Authors: A.S. Rebaï, M. Elloumi

Abstract:

The Shortest Approximate Common Superstring (SACS) problem is : Given a set of strings f={w1, w2, ... , wn}, where no wi is an approximate substring of wj, i ≠ j, find a shortest string Sa, such that, every string of f is an approximate substring of Sa. When the number of the strings n>2, the SACS problem becomes NP-complete. In this paper, we present a greedy approximation SACS algorithm. Our algorithm is a 1/2-approximation for the SACS problem. It is of complexity O(n2*(l2+log(n))) in computing time, where n is the number of the strings and l is the length of a string. Our SACS algorithm is based on computation of the Length of the Approximate Longest Overlap (LALO).

Keywords: Shortest approximate common superstring, approximation algorithms, strings overlaps, complexities.

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3187 IntelliCane: A Cane System for Individuals with Lower-Limb Mobility and Functional Impairments

Authors: Adrian Bostan, Nicolae Tapus, Adriana Tapus

Abstract:

The purpose of this research paper is to study and develop a system that is able to help identify problems and improve human rehabilitation after traumatic injuries. Traumatic injuries in human’s lower limbs can occur over a life time and can have serious side effects if they are not treated correctly. In this paper, we developed an intelligent cane (IntelliCane) so as to help individuals in their rehabilitation process and provide feedback to the users. The first stage of the paper involves an analysis of the existing systems on the market and what can be improved. The second stage presents the design of the system. The third part, which is still under development is the validation of the system in real world setups with people in need. This paper presents mainly stages one and two.

Keywords: IntelliCane, 3D printing, microprocessor, weight measurement, rehabilitation tool.

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3186 Sampling and Characterization of Fines Created during the Shredding of Non Hazardous Waste

Authors: Soukaina Oujana, Peggy Zwolinski

Abstract:

Fines are heterogeneous residues created during the shredding of non-hazardous waste. They are one of the most challenging issues faced by recyclers, because they are at the present time considered as non-sortable and non-reusable mixtures destined to landfill. However, fines contain a large amount of recoverable materials that could be recycled or reused for the production of solid recovered fuel. This research is conducted in relation to a project named ValoRABES. The aim is to characterize fines and establish a suitable sorting process in order to extract the materials contained in the mixture and define their suitable recovery paths. This paper will highlight the importance of a good sampling and will propose a sampling methodology for fines characterization. First results about the characterization will be also presented.

Keywords: Fines, non-hazardous waste, recovery, shredding residues, waste characterization, waste sampling.

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3185 Simultaneous Reaction-Separation in a Microchannel Reactor with the Aid of a Guideline Structure

Authors: Salah Aljbour, Hiroshi Yamada, Tomohiko Tagawa

Abstract:

A microchannel with two inlets and two outlets was tested as a potential reactor to carry out two-phase catalytic phase transfer reaction with phase separation at the exit of the microchannel. The catalytic phase transfer reaction between benzyl chloride and sodium sulfide was chosen as a model reaction. The effect of operational time on the conversion was studied. By utilizing a multiphase parallel flow inside the microchannel reactor with the aid of a guideline structure, the catalytic phase reaction followed by phase separation could be ensured. The organic phase could be separated completely from one exit and part of the aqueous phase was separated purely and could be reused with slightly affecting the catalytic phase transfer reaction.

Keywords: Green engineering, microchannel reactor, multiphase reaction, process intensification.

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3184 The Hardware Implementation of a Novel Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Zhenhuan Zhu, David Mulvaney, Vassilios Chouliaras

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel genetic algorithm, termed the Optimum Individual Monogenetic Algorithm (OIMGA) and describes its hardware implementation. As the monogenetic strategy retains only the optimum individual, the memory requirement is dramatically reduced and no crossover circuitry is needed, thereby ensuring the requisite silicon area is kept to a minimum. Consequently, depending on application requirements, OIMGA allows the investigation of solutions that warrant either larger GA populations or individuals of greater length. The results given in this paper demonstrate that both the performance of OIMGA and its convergence time are superior to those of existing hardware GA implementations. Local convergence is achieved in OIMGA by retaining elite individuals, while population diversity is ensured by continually searching for the best individuals in fresh regions of the search space.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, hardware-based machinelearning.

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3183 Aging Behaviour of 6061 Al-15 vol% SiC Composite in T4 and T6 Treatments

Authors: Melby Chacko, Jagannath Nayak

Abstract:

The aging behaviour of 6061 Al-15 vol% SiC composite was investigated using Rockwell B hardness measurement. The composite was solutionized at 350°C and quenched in water. The composite was aged at room temperature (T4 treatment) and also at 140°C, 160°C, 180°C and 200°C (T6 treatment). The natural and artificial aging behaviour of composite was studied using aging curves determined at different temperatures. The aging period for peak aging for different temperatures was identified. The time required for attaining peak aging decreased with increase in the aging temperature. The peak hardness was found to increase with increase with aging temperature and the highest peak hardness was observed at 180ºC. Beyond 180ºC the peak hardness was found to be decreasing.

Keywords: 6061 Al-SiC composite, Aging curve, Rockwell B hardness, T4, T6 treatments.

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3182 Determination of Cyclic Citrullinated Peptide Antibodies on Quartz Crystal Microbalance Based Nanosensors

Authors: Y. Saylan, F. Yılmaz, A. Denizli

Abstract:

In this study, we have focused our attention on combining of molecular imprinting into nanofilms and QCM nanosensor approaches and producing QCM nanosensor for anti- CCP, chosen as model protein, using anti-CCP imprinted nanofilms. The nonimprinted nanosensor was also prepared to evaluate the selectivity of the imprinted nanosensor. Anti-CCP imprinted QCM nanosensor was tested for real time detection of anti-CCP from aqueous solution. The kinetic and affinity studies were determined by using anti-CCP solutions with different concentrations. The responses related with mass shifts (%m) and frequency shifts (%f) were used to evaluate adsorption properties. To show the selectivity of the anti-CCP imprinted QCM nanosensor, competitive adsorption of anti-CCP and IgM was investigated. The results indicate that anti- CCP imprinted QCM nanosensor has higher adsorption capabilities for anti-CCP than for IgM, due to selective cavities in the polymer structure.

Keywords: Anti-CCP, molecular imprinting, QCM nanosensor, rheumatoid arthritis.

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3181 Development of Elasticity Modulus in Time for Concrete Containing Mineral Admixtures

Authors: K. Krizova, R. Hela, S. Keprdova

Abstract:

This paper introduces selected composition of conventional concretes and their resulting mechanical properties at different ages of concrete. With respect to utilization of mineral admixtures, fly ash and ground limestone agents were included in addition to pure Portland binder. The proposal of concrete composition remained constant in basic concrete components such as cement and representation of individual contents of aggregate fractions; weight dosing of admixtures and water dose were only modified. Water dose was chosen in order to achieve identical consistence by settlement for all proposals of concrete composition. Mechanical properties monitored include compression strength, static and dynamic modulus of concrete elasticity, at ages of 7, 28, 90, and 180 days.

Keywords: Cement, mineral admixtures, microstructure of concrete, mechanical properties.

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3180 Two and Three Layer Lamination of Nanofiber

Authors: Roman Knizek, Denisa Karhankova, Ludmila Fridrichova

Abstract:

For their exceptional properties nanofibers, respectively, nanofiber layers are achieving an increasingly wider range of uses. Nowadays nanofibers are used mainly in the field of air filtration where they are removing submicron particles, bacteria, and viruses. Their efficiency is not changed in time, and the power consumption is much lower than that of electrically charged filters. Nanofibers are primarily used for converting and storage of energy in both air and liquid filtration, in food and packaging, protecting the environment, but also in health care which is made possible by their newly discovered properties. However, a major problem of the nanofiber layer is practically zero abrasion resistance; it is, therefore, necessary to laminate the nanofiber layer with another suitable material. Unfortunately, lamination of nanofiber layers is a major problem since the nanofiber layer contains small pores through which it is very difficult for adhesion to pass through. Therefore, there is still only a small percentage of products with these unique fibers 5.

Keywords: Nanofiber layer, nanomembrane, lamination, electrospinning.

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3179 Business Diversification Strategies in the Italian Energy Markets

Authors: F. Di Pillo, G. Capece, L. Cricelli, N. Levialdi

Abstract:

The liberalization and privatization processes have forced public utility companies to face new competitive challenges, implementing strategies to gain market share and, at the same time, keep the old customers. To this end, many companies have carried out mergers, acquisitions and conglomerations in order to diversify their business. This paper focuses on companies operating in the free energy market in Italy. In the last decade, this sector has undergone profound changes that have radically changed the competitive scenario and have led companies to implement diversification strategies of the business. Our work aims to evaluate the economic and financial performances obtained by energy companies, following the beginning of the liberalization process, verifying the possible relationship with the implemented diversification strategies.

Keywords: Business diversification strategies, M&A, the Italian energy market liberalization, economic and financial performances.

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3178 An Enhanced Artificial Neural Network for Air Temperature Prediction

Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.

Keywords: Time-series forecasting, weather modeling.

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3177 Position Awareness Mechanisms for Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Seyed Mostafa Torabi

Abstract:

A Wireless sensor network (WSN) consists of a set of battery-powered nodes, which collaborate to perform sensing tasks in a given environment. Each node in WSN should be capable to act for long periods of time with scrimpy or no external management. One requirement for this independent is: in the presence of adverse positions, the sensor nodes must be capable to configure themselves. Hence, the nodes for determine the existence of unusual events in their surroundings should make use of position awareness mechanisms. This work approaches the problem by considering the possible unusual events as diseases, thus making it possible to diagnose them through their symptoms, namely, their side effects. Considering these awareness mechanisms as a foundation for highlevel monitoring services, this paper also shows how these mechanisms are included in the primal plan of an intrusion detection system.

Keywords: Awareness Mechanism, Intrusion Detection, Independent, Wireless Sensor Network

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3176 An efficient Activity Network Reduction Algorithm based on the Label Correcting Tracing Algorithm

Authors: Weng Ming Chu

Abstract:

When faced with stochastic networks with an uncertain duration for their activities, the securing of network completion time becomes problematical, not only because of the non-identical pdf of duration for each node, but also because of the interdependence of network paths. As evidenced by Adlakha & Kulkarni [1], many methods and algorithms have been put forward in attempt to resolve this issue, but most have encountered this same large-size network problem. Therefore, in this research, we focus on network reduction through a Series/Parallel combined mechanism. Our suggested algorithm, named the Activity Network Reduction Algorithm (ANRA), can efficiently transfer a large-size network into an S/P Irreducible Network (SPIN). SPIN can enhance stochastic network analysis, as well as serve as the judgment of symmetry for the Graph Theory.

Keywords: Series/Parallel network, Stochastic network, Network reduction, Interdictive Graph, Complexity Index.

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3175 Aeroelastic Response for Pure Plunging Motion of a Typical Section Due to Sharp Edged Gust, Using Jones Approximation Aerodynamics

Authors: M. H. Kargarnovin, A. Mamandi

Abstract:

This paper presents investigation effects of a sharp edged gust on aeroelastic behavior and time-domain response of a typical section model using Jones approximate aerodynamics for pure plunging motion. Flutter analysis has been done by using p and p-k methods developed for presented finite-state aerodynamic model for a typical section model (airfoil). Introduction of gust analysis as a linear set of ordinary differential equations in a simplified procedure has been carried out by using transformation into an eigenvalue problem.

Keywords: Aeroelastic response, jones approximation, pure plunging motion, sharp edged gust.

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3174 Transient Analysis of a Single-Server Queue with Fixed-Size Batch Arrivals

Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil

Abstract:

The transient analysis of a queuing system with fixed-size batch Poisson arrivals and a single server with exponential service times is presented. The focus of the paper is on the use of the functions that arise in the analysis of the transient behaviour of the queuing system. These functions are shown to be a generalization of the modified Bessel functions of the first kind, with the batch size B as the generalizing parameter. Results for the case of single-packet arrivals are obtained first. The similarities between the two families of functions are then used to obtain results for the general case of batch arrival queue with a batch size larger than one.

Keywords: batch arrivals, generalized Bessel functions, queuetransient analysis, time-varying probabilities.

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3173 Some Aspects Regarding I. R. Absorbing Materials Based On Thin Alumina Films for Solar-Thermal Energy Conversion, Using X-Ray Diffraction Technique

Authors: Sorina Adriana Mitrea, Silvia Maria Hodorogea, Anca Duta, Luminita Isac, Elena Purghel, Mihaela Voinea

Abstract:

Solar energy is the most “available", ecological and clean energy. This energy can be used in active or passive mode. The active mode implies the transformation of solar energy into a useful energy. The solar energy can be transformed into thermal energy, using solar collectors. In these collectors, the active and the most important element is the absorber, material which performs the absorption of solar radiation and, in at the same time, limits its reflection. The paper presents some aspects regarding the IR absorbing material – a type of cermets, used as absorber in the solar collectors, by X Ray Diffraction Technique (XRD) characterization.

Keywords: Alumina films, solar energy, X-ray diffraction.

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3172 CFD Simulations of a Co-current Spray Dryer

Authors: Saad Nahi Saleh

Abstract:

This paper presents the prediction of air flow, humidity and temperature patterns in a co-current pilot plant spray dryer fitted with a pressure nozzle using a three dimensional model. The modelling was done with a Computational Fluid Dynamic package (Fluent 6.3), in which the gas phase is modelled as continuum using the Euler approach and the droplet/ particle phase is modelled by the Discrete Phase model (Lagrange approach).Good agreement was obtained with published experimental data where the CFD simulation correctly predicts a fast downward central flowing core and slow recirculation zones near the walls. In this work, the effects of the air flow pattern on droplets trajectories, residence time distribution of droplets and deposition of the droplets on the wall also were investigated where atomizing of maltodextrin solution was used.

Keywords: Spray, CFD, multiphase, drying, droplet, particle.

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3171 Conceptual Design of an Aircraft with Maglev Landing System

Authors: Nishanth Murugan, Mohammed Niyasdeen Nejaamtheen, S. Sounder Rajan

Abstract:

The accelerated growth in aircraft industries desire effectual schemes, programs, innovative designs of advanced systems to accomplishing the augmenting need for home-free air transportation. In this paper, a contemporary conceptual design of an airplane has been proposed without landing gear systems in order to reducing accidents, time consumption, and to eliminating drawbacks by using superconducting levitation phenomenon. This invention of an airplane with superconductive material coating, on the solar plexus region assist to reduce weight by approximately 4% of the total takeoff weight, and cost effective. Moreover, we conjectured that superconductor landing system reduces ground friction, mission fuel, total drag, take-off and landing distance.

Keywords: Aircraft landing system, Magnetic levitation, Superconductors, Take-off and landing.

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3170 Influence of Adaptation Gain and Reference Model Parameters on System Performance for Model Reference Adaptive Control

Authors: Jan Erik Stellet

Abstract:

This article presents a detailed analysis and comparative performance evaluation of model reference adaptive control systems. In contrast to classical control theory, adaptive control methods allow to deal with time-variant processes. Inspired by the works [1] and [2], two methods based on the MIT rule and Lyapunov rule are applied to a linear first order system. The system is simulated and it is investigated how changes to the adaptation gain affect the system performance. Furthermore, variations in the reference model parameters, that is changing the desired closed-loop behaviour are examinded.

Keywords: Adaptive control systems, Adaptation gain, MIT rule, Lyapunov rule, Model reference adaptive control.

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3169 Preparation of Heterogeneous Ferrite Catalysts and Their Application for Fenton-Like Oxidation of Radioactive Organic Wastewater

Authors: Hsien T. Hsieh, Chao R. Chen, Li C. Chuang, Chin C. Shen

Abstract:

Fenton oxidation technology is the general strategy for the treatment of organic compounds-contained wastewater. However, a considerable amount of ferric sludge was produced during the Fenton process as secondary wastes, which were needed to be further removed from the effluent and treated. In this study, heterogeneous catalysts based on ferrite oxide (Cu-Fe-Ce-O) were synthesized and characterized, and their application for Fenton-like oxidation of simulated and actual radioactive organic wastewater was investigated. The results of TOC decomposition efficiency around 54% ~ 99% were obtained when the catalyst loading, H2O2 loading, pH, temperature, and reaction time were controlled. In this case, no secondary wastes formed and the given catalysts were able to be separated by magnetic devices and reused again.

Keywords: Fenton, oxidation, heterogeneous catalyst, wastewater.

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3168 Numerical Modeling and Computer Simulation of Ground Movement above Underground Mine

Authors: A. Nuric, S. Nuric, L. Kricak, I. Lapandic, R. Husagic

Abstract:

This paper describes topic of computer simulation with regard to the ground movement above an underground mine. Simulation made with software package ADINA for nonlinear elastic-plastic analysis with finite elements method. The one of representative profiles from Mine 'Stara Jama' in Zenica has been investigated. A collection and selection of both geo-mechanical data and geometric parameters of the mine was necessary for performing these simulations. Results of estimation have been compared with measured values (vertical displacement of surface), and then simulation performed with assumed dynamic and dimensions of excavation, over a period of time. Results are presented with bitmaps and charts.

Keywords: Computer, finite element method, mine, nonlinear analysis, numerical modeling, simulation, subsidence.

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3167 Virtual Gesture Screen System Based on 3D Visual Information and Multi-Layer Perceptron

Authors: Yang-Keun Ahn, Min-Wook Kim, Young-Choong Park, Kwang-Soon Choi, Woo-Chool Park, Hae-Moon Seo, Kwang-Mo Jung

Abstract:

Active research is underway on virtual touch screens that complement the physical limitations of conventional touch screens. This paper discusses a virtual touch screen that uses a multi-layer perceptron to recognize and control three-dimensional (3D) depth information from a time of flight (TOF) camera. This system extracts an object-s area from the image input and compares it with the trajectory of the object, which is learned in advance, to recognize gestures. The system enables the maneuvering of content in virtual space by utilizing human actions.

Keywords: Gesture Recognition, Depth Sensor, Virtual Touch Screen

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3166 Evolutionary Feature Selection for Text Documents using the SVM

Authors: Daniel I. Morariu, Lucian N. Vintan, Volker Tresp

Abstract:

Text categorization is the problem of classifying text documents into a set of predefined classes. After a preprocessing step, the documents are typically represented as large sparse vectors. When training classifiers on large collections of documents, both the time and memory restrictions can be quite prohibitive. This justifies the application of feature selection methods to reduce the dimensionality of the document-representation vector. In this paper, we present three feature selection methods: Information Gain, Support Vector Machine feature selection called (SVM_FS) and Genetic Algorithm with SVM (called GA_SVM). We show that the best results were obtained with GA_SVM method for a relatively small dimension of the feature vector.

Keywords: Feature Selection, Learning with Kernels, Support Vector Machine, Genetic Algorithm, and Classification.

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3165 Nanofibrous Ion Exchangers

Authors: Jaromír Marek, Jakub Wiener, Yan Wang

Abstract:

The main goal of this study was to find simple and industrially applicable production of ion exchangers based on nanofibrous polystyrene matrix and characterization of prepared material. Starting polystyrene nanofibers were sulfonated and crosslinked under appropriate conditions at the same time by sulfuric acid. Strongly acidic cation exchanger was obtained in such a way. The polymer matrix was made from polystyrene nanofibers prepared by NanospiderTM technology.

Various types postpolymerization reactions and other methods of crosslinking were studied. Greatly different behavior between nano- and microsize materials was observed. The final nanofibrous material was characterized and compared to common granular ion exchangers and available microfibrous ion exchangers. The sorption properties of nanofibrous ion exchangers were compared with the granular ion exchangers. For nanofibrous ion exchangers of comparable ion exchange capacity was observed considerably faster adsorption kinetics.

Keywords: Electrospinning, ion exchangers, nanofibers, polystyrene.

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3164 An Accurate Computation of Block Hybrid Method for Solving Stiff Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: A. M. Sagir

Abstract:

In this paper, self-starting block hybrid method of order (5,5,5,5)T is proposed for the solution of the special second order ordinary differential equations with associated initial or boundary conditions. The continuous hybrid formulations enable us to differentiate and evaluate at some grids and off – grid points to obtain four discrete schemes, which were used in block form for parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. The computational burden and computer time wastage involved in the usual reduction of second order problem into system of first order equations are avoided by this approach. Furthermore, a stability analysis and efficiency of the block method are tested on stiff ordinary differential equations, and the results obtained compared favorably with the exact solution.

Keywords: Block Method, Hybrid, Linear Multistep Method, Self – starting, Special Second Order.

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3163 Public Key Cryptosystem based on Number Theoretic Transforms

Authors: C. Porkodi, R. Arumuganathan

Abstract:

In this paper a Public Key Cryptosystem is proposed using the number theoretic transforms (NTT) over a ring of integer modulo a composite number. The key agreement is similar to ElGamal public key algorithm. The security of the system is based on solution of multivariate linear congruence equations and discrete logarithm problem. In the proposed cryptosystem only fixed numbers of multiplications are carried out (constant complexity) and hence the encryption and decryption can be done easily. At the same time, it is very difficult to attack the cryptosystem, since the cipher text is a sequence of integers which are interrelated. The system provides authentication also. Using Mathematica version 5.0 the proposed algorithm is justified with a numerical example.

Keywords: Cryptography, decryption, discrete logarithm problem encryption, Integer Factorization problem, Key agreement, Number Theoretic Transform.

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3162 Feature Selection Methods for an Improved SVM Classifier

Authors: Daniel Morariu, Lucian N. Vintan, Volker Tresp

Abstract:

Text categorization is the problem of classifying text documents into a set of predefined classes. After a preprocessing step, the documents are typically represented as large sparse vectors. When training classifiers on large collections of documents, both the time and memory restrictions can be quite prohibitive. This justifies the application of feature selection methods to reduce the dimensionality of the document-representation vector. In this paper, three feature selection methods are evaluated: Random Selection, Information Gain (IG) and Support Vector Machine feature selection (called SVM_FS). We show that the best results were obtained with SVM_FS method for a relatively small dimension of the feature vector. Also we present a novel method to better correlate SVM kernel-s parameters (Polynomial or Gaussian kernel).

Keywords: Feature Selection, Learning with Kernels, SupportVector Machine, and Classification.

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3161 Selection of Rayleigh Damping Coefficients for Seismic Response Analysis of Soil Layers

Authors: Huai-Feng Wang, Meng-Lin Lou, Ru-Lin Zhang

Abstract:

One good analysis method in seismic response analysis is direct time integration, which widely adopts Rayleigh damping. An approach is presented for selection of Rayleigh damping coefficients to be used in seismic analyses to produce a response that is consistent with Modal damping response. In the presented approach, the expression of the error of peak response, acquired through complete quadratic combination method, and Rayleigh damping coefficients was set up and then the coefficients were produced by minimizing the error. Two finite element modes of soil layers, excited by 28 seismic waves, were used to demonstrate the feasibility and validity.

Keywords: Rayleigh damping, modal damping, damping coefficients, seismic response analysis.

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3160 A Frame Work for Query Results Refinement in Multimedia Databases

Authors: Humaira Liaquat, Nadeem Iftikhar, Shaukat Ali, Zohaib Zafar Iqbal

Abstract:

In the current age, retrieval of relevant information from massive amount of data is a challenging job. Over the years, precise and relevant retrieval of information has attained high significance. There is a growing need in the market to build systems, which can retrieve multimedia information that precisely meets the user's current needs. In this paper, we have introduced a framework for refining query results before showing it to the user, using ambient intelligence, user profile, group profile, user location, time, day, user device type and extracted features. A prototypic tool was also developed to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Context aware retrieval, Information retrieval, Ambient Intelligence, Multimedia databases, User and group profile.

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3159 Quantitative Estimation of Periodicities in Lyari River Flow Routing

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.

Keywords: Diagnostic checks, Lyari river, Model selection, Monthly waste flow, Periodicity, Periodic autoregressive model.

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