Search results for: Grade point average

Authors: Lívia B. Meirelles, Erika C. A. N. Chrisman, Flávia B. de Andrade, Lilian C. M. de Oliveira

Abstract:

True Boiling Point distillation (TBP) is one of the most common experimental techniques for the determination of petroleum properties. This curve provides information about the performance of petroleum in terms of its cuts. The experiment is performed in a few days. Techniques are used to determine the properties faster with a software that calculates the distillation curve when a little information about crude oil is known. In order to evaluate the accuracy of distillation curve prediction, eight points of the TBP curve and specific gravity curve (348 K and 523 K) were inserted into the HYSYS Oil Manager, and the extended curve was evaluated up to 748 K. The methods were able to predict the curve with the accuracy of 0.6%-9.2% error (Software X ASTM), 0.2%-5.1% error (Software X Spaltrohr).

Keywords: Distillation curve, petroleum distillation, simulation, true boiling point curve.

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Authors: H. Bhowmik, A. Faisal, Ahmed Al Yaarubi, Nabil Al Alawi

Abstract:

Experiments are conducted to analyze the steady-state and the power-on transient natural convection heat transfer from a horizontal cylinder mounted in a vertical up flow circular duct. The heat flux ranges from 177 W/m² to 2426 W/m² and the Rayleigh number ranges from 1×10⁴ to 4.35×10⁴. For natural air flow and constant heat flux condition, the effects of heat transfer around the cylinder under steady-state condition are investigated. The steady-state results compare favorably with that of the available data. The effects of transient heat transfer data on different angular position of the thermocouple (0^o, 90^o, 180^o) are also reported. It is observed that the transient heat transfer around the cylinder is strongly affected by the position of thermocouples. In the transient region, the rate of heat transfer obtained at 90^o and 180^o are higher than that of stagnation point (0^o). Finally, the dependence of the average Nusselt number on Rayleigh number for steady and transient natural convection heat transfer are analyzed, and a correlation equation is presented.

Keywords: Steady-state, transient, natural convection, Rayleigh number, Nusselt number, Fourier Number.

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Authors: H. Jusoh, N. Sapari, R.Z. Raja Azie

Abstract:

Iron in groundwater is one of the problems that render the water unsuitable for drinking. The concentration above 0.3 mg/L is common in groundwater. The conventional method of removal is by precipitation under oxic condition. In this study, iron removal under anaerobic conditions was examined by batch experiment as a main purpose. The process involved by purging of groundwater samples with H2S to form iron sulfide. Removal up to 83% for 1 mg/L iron solution was achieved. The removal efficiency dropped to 82% and 75% for the higher initial iron concentrations 3.55 and 5.01 mg/L, respectively. The average residual sulfide concentration in water after the process was 25*g/L. The Eh level during the process was -272 mV. The removal process was found to follow the first order reaction with average rate constant of 4.52 x 10-3. The half-life for the concentrations to reduce from initial values was 157 minutes.

Keywords: Anaerobic, chemical kinetics, hydrogen sulfide, iron, rate constant

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Authors: Balázs Héder, Róbert Singliar, János Bitó

Abstract:

The impact of rain attenuation on wireless communication signals is predominant because of the used high frequency (above 10 GHz). The knowledge of statistics of attenuation is very important for planning point-to-point microwave links operating in high frequency band. Describing the statistics of attenuation is possible for instance with fade duration or level crossing rate. In our examination we determine these statistics from one year measured data for a given microwave link, and we are going to make an attempt to transform the level crossing rate statistic to fade duration statistic.

Keywords: Rain attenuation measurement, fade duration, level crossing rate.

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Authors: A. Kospach, A. Mladek, M. Waltenberger, F. Schilling

Abstract:

In this work, a coupled 1D/3D simulation approach for thermal protection and optimization of a trailer refrigeration power pack unit was developed. With the developed 1D/3D simulation approach thermal critical scenarios, such as summer, high-load scenarios are investigated. The 1D thermal model was built up consisting of the thermal network, which includes different point masses and associated heat transfers, the coolant and oil circuits, as well as the fan unit. The 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to model the air flow through the power pack unit considering convective heat transfer effects. In the 1D thermal model the temperatures of the individual point masses were calculated, which served as input variables for the 3D CFD model. For the calculation of the point mass temperatures in the 1D thermal model, the convective heat transfer rates from the 3D CFD model were required as input variables. These two variables (point mass temperatures and convective heat transfer rates) were the main couple variables for the coupled 1D/3D simulation model. The coupled 1D/3D model was validated with measurements under normal operating conditions. Coupled simulations for summer high-load case were than performed and compared with a reference case under normal operation conditions. Hot temperature regions and components could be identified. Due to the detailed information about the flow field, temperatures and heat fluxes, it was possible to directly derive improvement suggestions for the cooling design of the transport refrigeration power pack unit.

Keywords: Coupled thermal simulation, thermal analysis, transport refrigeration unit, 3D computational fluid dynamics, 1D thermal modelling, thermal management systems.

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Authors: A. Majeed, P. Ali

Abstract:

Before designing an electrical system, the estimation of load is necessary for unit sizing and demand-generation balancing. The system could be a stand-alone system for a village or grid connected or integrated renewable energy to grid connection, especially as there are non–electrified villages in developing countries. In the classical model, the energy demand was found by estimating the household appliances multiplied with the amount of their rating and the duration of their operation, but in this paper, information exists for electrified villages could be used to predict the demand, as villages almost have the same life style. This paper describes a method used to predict the average energy consumed in each two months for every consumer living in a village by Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The input data are collected using a regional survey for samples of consumers representing typical types of different living, household appliances and energy consumption by a list of information, and the output data are collected from administration office of Piramagrun for each corresponding consumer. The result of this study shows that the average demand for different consumers from four villages in different months throughout the year is approximately 12 kWh/day, this model estimates the average demand/day for every consumer with a mean absolute percent error of 11.8%, and MathWorks software package MATLAB version 7.6.0 that contains and facilitate Neural Network Toolbox was used.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, load estimation, regional survey, rural electrification.

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Authors: Somtop Keawchuer

Abstract:

The objective of this research was to study the factors related to the satisfaction of consumers who purchased a Toyota SUV Fortuner. This paper was a survey data which collected 400 samples from 65 car dealerships. The survey was conducted mainly in Bangkok, Thailand. The statistics utilized in this paper included percentage, mean, standard deviation and Pearson Product-Moment. The findings revealed that the majority of respondent were male with an undergraduate degree, married and live together. The average income of the respondents was between 20,001 - 30,000 baht. Most of them worked for private companies. Most of them had a family with the average of 4 members. The hypotheses testing revealed that the factors of marketing mix in terms of product (ability, gas mileage, and safety) were related to overall satisfaction at the medium level. However, the findings also revealed that the factors of marketing mix in terms of product (image), price, and promotion, and service center were related to the overall satisfaction at the low level.

Keywords: Car Consumers, Factors related, Overall Satisfaction.

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Authors: Xing Xiong, Byung-Jae Choi

Abstract:

It is important for an autonomous mobile robot to know where it is in any time in an indoor environment. In this paper, we design a relative self-localization algorithm. The algorithm compare the interest point in two images and compute the relative displacement and orientation to determent the posture. Firstly, we use the SURF algorithm to extract the interest points of the ceiling. Second, in order to reduce amount of calculation, a replacement SURF is used to extract orientation and description of the interest points. At last, according to the transformation of the interest points in two images, the relative self-localization of the mobile robot will be estimated greatly.

Keywords: Relative Self-Localization Posture, SURF, Natural Landmark, Interest Point.

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Authors: Abubakar Idris, Nabade Abdullahi Muhammad

Abstract:

The work presents a development of EN338 strength classes for Strombosia pustulata, Pterygotama crocarpa, Nauclea diderrichii and Entandrophragma cyclindricum Nigerian timber species. The specimens for experimental measurements were obtained from the timber-shed at the famous Panteka market in Kaduna in the northern part of Nigeria. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the physical and mechanical properties of the selected timber species in accordance with EN 13183-1 and ASTM D193. The mechanical properties were determined using three point bending test. The generated properties were used to obtain the characteristic values of the material properties in accordance with EN384. The selected timber species were then classified according to EN 338. Strombosia pustulata, Pterygotama crocarpa, Nauclea diderrichii and Entandrophragma cyclindricum were assigned to strength classes D40, C14, D40 and D24 respectively. Other properties such as tensile and compressive strengths parallel and perpendicular to grains, shear strength as well as shear modulus were obtained in accordance with EN 338. 

Keywords: Mechanical properties, Nigerian timber, strength classes, three-point bending test.

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Authors: Andr´as R¨ovid, Takeshi Hashimoto

Abstract:

The paper focuses on the problem of the point correspondence matching in stereo images. The proposed matching algorithm is based on the combination of simpler methods such as normalized sum of squared differences (NSSD) and a more complex phase correlation based approach, by considering the noise and other factors, as well. The speed of NSSD and the preciseness of the phase correlation together yield an efficient approach to find the best candidate point with sub-pixel accuracy in stereo image pairs. The task of the NSSD in this case is to approach the candidate pixel roughly. Afterwards the location of the candidate is refined by an enhanced phase correlation based method which in contrast to the NSSD has to run only once for each selected pixel.

Keywords: Stereo matching, Sub-pixel accuracy, phase correlation, SVD, NSSD.

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Authors: Anuar Ishak

Abstract:

The mixed convection stagnation point flow toward a vertical plate is investigated. The external flow impinges normal to the heated plate and the surface temperature is assumed to vary linearly with the distance from the stagnation point. The governing partial differential equations are transformed into a set of ordinary differential equations, which are then solved numerically using MATLAB routine boundary value problem solver bvp4c. Numerical results show that dual solutions are possible for a certain range of the mixed convection parameter. A stability analysis is performed to determine which solution is linearly stable and physically realizable.

Keywords: Dual solutions, heat transfer, mixed convection, stability analysis.

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Authors: Chuanyun Gu

Abstract:

By using fixed point theorems for a class of generalized concave and convex operators, the positive solution of nonlinear fractional differential equation with integral boundary conditions is studied, where n ≥ 3 is an integer, μ is a parameter and 0 ≤ μ < α. Its existence and uniqueness is proved, and an iterative scheme is constructed to approximate it. Finally, two examples are given to illustrate our results.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, positive solution, existence and uniqueness, fixed point theorem, generalized concave and convex operator, integral boundary conditions.

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Authors: Chao Wang, Zuxue Xia, Wenhai Xia, Rui Wang, Jiayuan Hu, Rui Cheng

Abstract:

Aiming at the application of indoor personnel positioning under smog conditions, this paper proposes a 3D positioning method based on the IWR1443 millimeter wave radar sensor. The problem that millimeter-wave radar cannot effectively form contours in 3D point cloud imaging is solved. The results show that the method can effectively achieve indoor positioning and scene construction, and the maximum positioning error of the system is 0.130 m.

Keywords: indoor positioning, millimeter wave radar, IWR1443 sensor, point cloud imaging

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Authors: Routsukol Sunalai

Abstract:

This research purpose is to study and compare the administration of Buddhist monks at northeastern Thailand. The samples used in the study are the priest in the Northeast by simple random sampling for 190 sampling. The tools used in this study is questioner were created in the 40 question items. The statistics used for data analysis were percentage, average, and standard deviation. The research found that the human resources management for the Buddhist monks as a whole is moderate. But it was found that the highest average is the policy followed by the management information. The Buddhist monks aged less than 25 years old with the overall difference was not significant. The priests who are less than 10 years in the monk experience and the priest has long held in the position for 10 years are not different in the significant level.

Keywords: Buddhist monks, human resources management, Northeastern Thailand, hotel industry, the administration of Buddhist monks.

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Authors: Hejun Guo, Shenghua Liu

Abstract:

Five palm oil ether monoesters utilized as novel biodiesels were synthesized and structurally identified in the paper. The investigation was made on the effect of ether species on physicochemical properties of the palm oil ether monoesters. The results showed that density, kinematic viscosity, smoke point, and solidifying point increase linearly with their –CH2 group number in certain relationships. Cetane number is enhanced whereas heat value decreases linearly with –CH2 group number. In addition, the influencing regularities of the volumetric content of the palm oil ether monoesters on the fuel properties were also studied when the ether monoesters are used as diesel fuel additives.

Keywords: Biodiesel, palm oil ether monoester, ether species, physicochemical property.

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Authors: Apirak Sombat, Teerapol Saleewong, Poom Kumam, Parin Chaipunya, Wiyada Kumam, Anantachai Padcharoen, Yeol Je Cho, Thana Sutthibutpong

Abstract:

This research is aimed to study a two-step iteration process defined over a finite family of σ-asymptotically quasi-nonexpansive nonself-mappings. The strong convergence is guaranteed under the framework of Banach spaces with some additional structural properties including strict and uniform convexity, reflexivity, and smoothness assumptions. With similar projection technique for nonself-mapping in Hilbert spaces, we hereby use the generalized projection to construct a point within the corresponding domain. Moreover, we have to introduce the use of duality mapping and its inverse to overcome the unavailability of duality representation that is exploit by Hilbert space theorists. We then apply our results for σ-asymptotically quasi-nonexpansive nonself-mappings to solve for ideal efficiency of vector optimization problems composed of finitely many objective functions. We also showed that the obtained solution from our process is the closest to the origin. Moreover, we also give an illustrative numerical example to support our results.

Keywords: σ-asymptotically quasi-nonexpansive nonselfmapping, strong convergence, fixed point, uniformly convex and uniformly smooth Banach space.

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Authors: Erol Seke, Kemal Özkan

Abstract:

Linear approximation of point spread function (PSF) is a new method for determining subpixel translations between images. The problem with the actual algorithm is the inability of determining translations larger than 1 pixel. In this paper a multiresolution technique is proposed to deal with the problem. Its performance is evaluated by comparison with two other well known registration method. In the proposed technique the images are downsampled in order to have a wider view. Progressively decreasing the downsampling rate up to the initial resolution and using linear approximation technique at each step, the algorithm is able to determine translations of several pixels in subpixel levels.

Keywords: Point Spread Function, Subpixel translation, Superresolution, Multiresolution approach.

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Authors: Farzaneh Ahmadzadeh

Abstract:

Quality control charts are very effective in detecting out of control signals but when a control chart signals an out of control condition of the process mean, searching for a special cause in the vicinity of the signal time would not always lead to prompt identification of the source(s) of the out of control condition as the change point in the process parameter(s) is usually different from the signal time. It is very important to manufacturer to determine at what point and which parameters in the past caused the signal. Early warning of process change would expedite the search for the special causes and enhance quality at lower cost. In this paper the quality variables under investigation are assumed to follow a multivariate normal distribution with known means and variance-covariance matrix and the process means after one step change remain at the new level until the special cause is being identified and removed, also it is supposed that only one variable could be changed at the same time. This research applies artificial neural network (ANN) to identify the time the change occurred and the parameter which caused the change or shift. The performance of the approach was assessed through a computer simulation experiment. The results show that neural network performs effectively and equally well for the whole shift magnitude which has been considered.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, change point estimation, monte carlo simulation, multivariate exponentially weighted movingaverage

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Authors: A. Taqaddas

Abstract:

Purpose: Planning and dosimetry of different VMAT algorithms (SmartArc, Ergo++, Autobeam) is compared with IMRT for Head and Neck Cancer patients. Modelling was performed to rule out the causes of discrepancies between planned and delivered dose. Methods: Five HNC patients previously treated with IMRT were re-planned with SmartArc (SA), Ergo++ and Autobeam. Plans were compared with each other and against IMRT and evaluated using DVHs for PTVs and OARs, delivery time, monitor units (MU) and dosimetric accuracy. Modelling of control point (CP) spacing, Leaf-end Separation and MLC/Aperture shape was performed to rule out causes of discrepancies between planned and delivered doses. Additionally estimated arc delivery times, overall plan generation times and effect of CP spacing and number of arcs on plan generation times were recorded. Results: Single arc SmartArc plans (SA4d) were generally better than IMRT and double arc plans (SA2Arcs) in terms of homogeneity and target coverage. Double arc plans seemed to have a positive role in achieving improved Conformity Index (CI) and better sparing of some Organs at Risk (OARs) compared to Step and Shoot IMRT (ss-IMRT) and SA4d. Overall Ergo++ plans achieved best CI for both PTVs. Dosimetric validation of all VMAT plans without modelling was found to be lower than ss-IMRT. Total MUs required for delivery were on average 19%, 30%, 10.6% and 6.5% lower than ss-IMRT for SA4d, SA2d (Single arc with 2⁰ Gantry Spacing), SA2Arcs and Autobeam plans respectively. Autobeam was most efficient in terms of actual treatment delivery times whereas Ergo++ plans took longest to deliver. Conclusion: Overall SA single arc plans on average achieved best target coverage and homogeneity for both PTVs. SA2Arc plans showed improved CI and some OARs sparing. Very good dosimetric results were achieved with modelling. Ergo++ plans achieved best CI. Autobeam resulted in fastest treatment delivery times.

Keywords: Dosimetry, Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy, Optimization Algorithms, Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy.

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Authors: K. Raghuwaiya, B. Sharma, J. Vanualailai

Abstract:

This paper presents a set of artificial potential field functions that improves upon, in general, the motion planning and posture control, with theoretically guaranteed point and posture stabilities, convergence and collision avoidance properties of the general3-trailer system in a priori known environment. We basically design and inject two new concepts; ghost walls and the distance optimization technique (DOT) to strengthen point and posture stabilities, in the sense of Lyapunov, of our dynamical model. This new combination of techniques emerges as a convenient mechanism for obtaining feasible orientations at the target positions with an overall reduction in the complexity of the navigation laws. Simulations are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the controls laws.

Keywords: Artificial potential fields, 3-trailer systems, motion planning, posture.

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Authors: Jae Moon Lee

Abstract:

In general, algorithms to find continuous k-nearest neighbors have been researched on the location based services, monitoring periodically the moving objects such as vehicles and mobile phone. Those researches assume the environment that the number of query points is much less than that of moving objects and the query points are not moved but fixed. In gaming environments, this problem is when computing the next movement considering the neighbors such as flocking, crowd and robot simulations. In this case, every moving object becomes a query point so that the number of query point is same to that of moving objects and the query points are also moving. In this paper, we analyze the performance of the existing algorithms focused on location based services how they operate under gaming environments.

Keywords: Flocking behavior, heterogeneous agents, similarity, simulation.

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Badrashiny, Abdelghani Bellaachia

Abstract:

This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system consists of two main components; features selection and classifier ensemble components. The features selection component divides the features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which models different set of features from SEER through the features selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002). It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and 81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.

Keywords: Classifier ensemble, breast cancer survivability, data mining, SEER.

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Authors: Y. Aldali, F. Ahwide

Abstract:

This paper investigates the application of large scale (LS-PV) two-axis tracking photovoltaic power plant in Al-Jagbob, Libya. A 50MW PV-grid connected (two-axis tracking) power plant design in Al-Jagbob, Libya has been carried out presently. A hetero-junction with intrinsic thin layer (HIT) type PV module has been selected and modeled. A Microsoft Excel-VBA program has been constructed to compute slope radiation, dew-point, sky temperature, and then cell temperature, maximum power output and module efficiency for this system, for tracking system. The results for energy production show that the total energy output is 128.5 GWh/year. The average module efficiency is 16.6%. The electricity generation capacity factor (CF) and solar capacity factor (SCF) were found to be 29.3% and 70.4% respectively. A 50MW two axis tracking power plant with a total energy output of 128.5 GWh/year would reduce CO₂ pollution by 85,581 tonnes of each year. The payback time for the proposed LS-PV photovoltaic power plant was found to be 4 years.

Keywords: Large PV power plant, solar energy, environmental impact, Dual-axis tracking system.

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Authors: Avinash Chandra, R. P. Chhabra

Abstract:

Natural convection heat transfer from a heated horizontal semi-circular cylinder (flat surface upward) has been investigated for the following ranges of conditions; Grashof number, and Prandtl number. The governing partial differential equations (continuity, Navier-Stokes and energy equations) have been solved numerically using a finite volume formulation. In addition, the role of the type of the thermal boundary condition imposed at cylinder surface, namely, constant wall temperature (CWT) and constant heat flux (CHF) are explored. Natural convection heat transfer from a heated horizontal semi-circular cylinder (flat surface upward) has been investigated for the following ranges of conditions; Grashof number, and Prandtl number, . The governing partial differential equations (continuity, Navier-Stokes and energy equations) have been solved numerically using a finite volume formulation. In addition, the role of the type of the thermal boundary condition imposed at cylinder surface, namely, constant wall temperature (CWT) and constant heat flux (CHF) are explored. The resulting flow and temperature fields are visualized in terms of the streamline and isotherm patterns in the proximity of the cylinder. The flow remains attached to the cylinder surface over the range of conditions spanned here except that for and ; at these conditions, a separated flow region is observed when the condition of the constant wall temperature is prescribed on the surface of the cylinder. The heat transfer characteristics are analyzed in terms of the local and average Nusselt numbers. The maximum value of the local Nusselt number always occurs at the corner points whereas it is found to be minimum at the rear stagnation point on the flat surface. Overall, the average Nusselt number increases with Grashof number and/ or Prandtl number in accordance with the scaling considerations. The numerical results are used to develop simple correlations as functions of Grashof and Prandtl number thereby enabling the interpolation of the present numerical results for the intermediate values of the Prandtl or Grashof numbers for both thermal boundary conditions.

Keywords: Constant heat flux, Constant surface temperature, Grashof number, natural convection, Prandtl number, Semi-circular cylinder

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Authors: Osea Zebua, Norikazu Ikoma, Hiroshi Maeda

Abstract:

Estimation of voltage stability based on optimal filtering method is presented. PV curve is used as a tool for voltage stability analysis. Dynamic voltage stability estimation is done by using particle filter method. Optimum value (nose point) of PV curve can be estimated by estimating parameter of PV curve equation optimal value represents critical voltage and condition at specified point of measurement. Voltage stability is then estimated by analyzing loading margin condition c stimating equation. This maximum loading ecified dynamically.

Keywords: normalized PV curve, optimal filtering method particle filter, voltage stability.

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Authors: J. J. Peña, J. Morales, J. García-Ravelo, L. Arcos-Díaz

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The Point canonical transformation method is applied for solving the Schrödinger equation with position-dependent mass. This class of problem has been solved for continuous mass distributions. In this work, a staggered mass distribution for the case of a free particle in an infinite square well potential has been proposed. The continuity conditions as well as normalization for the wave function are also considered. The proposal can be used for dealing with other kind of staggered mass distributions in the Schrödinger equation with different quantum potentials.

Keywords: Free particle, point canonical transformation method, position-dependent mass, staggered mass distribution.

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Authors: K. Benamrane, T. Abdelkrim, T. Benslimane, Aeh. Benkhelifa, B. Bezza

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparison between two Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) algorithms applied to a three-level Neutral Point Clamped (NPC) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). The first algorithm applied is the triangular-sinusoidal strategy; the second is the Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) strategy. In the first part, we present a topology of three-level NCP VSI. After that, we develop the two PWM strategies to control this converter. At the end the experimental results are presented.

Keywords: Multilevel inverter, Space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM), triangular-sinusoidal strategy.

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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The aim of the paper is to analyze the characteristics of winter fog in terms of its trend and spatial-temporal variability over Indo-Gangetic plains. The study reveals that during last four and half decades (1971-2015), an alarming increasing trend in fog frequency has been observed during the winter months of December and January over the study area. The frequency of fog has increased by 118.4% during the peak winter months of December and January. It has also been observed that on an average central part of IGP has 66.29% fog days followed by west IGP with 41.94% fog days. Further, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition and Mann-Kendall variation analysis are used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of winter fog. The findings have significant implications for the further research of fog over IGP and formulate robust strategies to adapt the fog variability and mitigate its effects. The decision by Delhi Government to implement odd-even scheme to restrict the use of private vehicles in order to reduce pollution and improve quality of air may result in increasing the alarming increasing trend of fog over Delhi and its surrounding areas regions of IGP.

Keywords: Fog, climatology, spatial variability, temporal variability, empirical orthogonal function, visibility, Mann-Kendall test, variation point.

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Authors: Eman. K. Ramadan, Abdelgawad. S. El-Tahawy

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of calving season on the production and economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. Our study was performed at dairy production farms in the Alexandria, Behera, and Kafr El-Sheikh provinces of Egypt from summer 2010 to winter 2013. The randomly selected dairy farms had herds consisting of Baladi, Holstein-Friesian, or cross-bred (Baladi × Holstein-Friesian) cows. The data were collected from production records and responses to a structured questionnaire. The average total return differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the different cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average total return was highest for the Holstein- Friesian cows that calved in the winter (29106.42 EGP/cow/year), and it was lowest for Baladi cows that calved in the summer (12489.79 EGP/cow/year). Differences in total returns between the cows that calved in the winter or summer or between the foreign and native breeds, as well as variations in calf prices, might have contributed to the differences in milk yield. The average net profit per cow differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average net profit values for the Baladi cows that calved in the winter or summer were 2413 and 2994.96 EGP/cow/year, respectively, and those for the Holstein- Friesian cows were 10744.17 and 7860.56 EGP/cow/year, respectively, whereas those for the cross-bred cows were 10174.86 and 7571.33 EGP/cow/year, respectively. The variations in net profit might have resulted from variation in the availability or price of feed materials, milk prices, or sales volumes. Our results show that the breed and calving season of dairy cows significantly affected the economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. The cows that calved in the winter produced more milk than those that calved in the summer, which may have been the result of seasonal influences, such as temperature, humidity, management practices, and the type of feed or green fodder available.

Keywords:

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Hossein Sadati

Abstract:

In fields such as neuroscience and especially in cognition modeling of mental processes, uncertainty processing in temporal zone of signal is vital. In this paper, Bayesian online inferences in estimation of change-points location in signal are constructed. This method separated the observed signal into independent series and studies the change and variation of the regime of data locally with related statistical characteristics. We give conditions on simulations of the method when the data characteristics of signals vary, and provide empirical evidence to show the performance of method. It is verified that correlation between series around the change point location and its characteristics such as Signal to Noise Ratios and mean value of signal has important factor on fluctuating in finding proper location of change point. And one of the main contributions of this study is related to representing of these influences of signal statistical characteristics for finding abrupt variation in signal. There are two different structures for simulations which in first case one abrupt change in temporal section of signal is considered with variable position and secondly multiple variations are considered. Finally, influence of statistical characteristic for changing the location of change point is explained in details in simulation results with different artificial signals.

Keywords: Time series, fluctuation in statistical characteristics, optimal learning.

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