Search results for: Decision experts and Delphi technique.

Authors: A. Ghanbari Mardasi, N. Wu, C. Wu

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In this study, a spatial wavelet-based crack localization technique for a thick beam is presented. Wavelet scale in spatial wavelet transformation is optimized to enhance crack detection sensitivity. A windowing function is also employed to erase the edge effect of the wavelet transformation, which enables the method to detect and localize cracks near the beam/measurement boundaries. Theoretical model and vibration analysis considering the crack effect are first proposed and performed in MATLAB based on the Timoshenko beam model. Gabor wavelet family is applied to the beam vibration mode shapes derived from the theoretical beam model to magnify the crack effect so as to locate the crack. Relative wavelet coefficient is obtained for sensitivity analysis by comparing the coefficient values at different positions of the beam with the lowest value in the intact area of the beam. Afterward, the optimal wavelet scale corresponding to the highest relative wavelet coefficient at the crack position is obtained for each vibration mode, through numerical simulations. The same procedure is performed for cracks with different sizes and positions in order to find the optimal scale range for the Gabor wavelet family. Finally, Hanning window is applied to different vibration mode shapes in order to overcome the edge effect problem of wavelet transformation and its effect on the localization of crack close to the measurement boundaries. Comparison of the wavelet coefficients distribution of windowed and initial mode shapes demonstrates that window function eases the identification of the cracks close to the boundaries.

Keywords: Edge effect, scale optimization, small crack locating, spatial wavelet.

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Authors: Danielle Shackley, Yetunde Folajimi

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As more people turn to the internet seeking health related information, there is more risk of finding false, inaccurate, or dangerous information. Sentiment analysis is a natural language processing technique that assigns polarity scores of text, ranging from positive, neutral and negative. In this research, we evaluate the weight of a sentiment analysis feature added to fake health news classification models. The dataset consists of existing reliably labeled health article headlines that were supplemented with health information collected about COVID-19 from social media sources. We started with data preprocessing, tested out various vectorization methods such as Count and TFIDF vectorization. We implemented 3 Naive Bayes classifier models, including Bernoulli, Multinomial and Complement. To test the weight of the sentiment analysis feature on the dataset, we created benchmark Naive Bayes classification models without sentiment analysis, and those same models were reproduced and the feature was added. We evaluated using the precision and accuracy scores. The Bernoulli initial model performed with 90% precision and 75.2% accuracy, while the model supplemented with sentiment labels performed with 90.4% precision and stayed constant at 75.2% accuracy. Our results show that the addition of sentiment analysis did not improve model precision by a wide margin; while there was no evidence of improvement in accuracy, we had a 1.9% improvement margin of the precision score with the Complement model. Future expansion of this work could include replicating the experiment process, and substituting the Naive Bayes for a deep learning neural network model.

Keywords: Sentiment analysis, Naive Bayes model, natural language processing, topic analysis, fake health news classification model.

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Authors: B. O. Diyaolu

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The stadium transcends a field of play to cultural heritage of a club especially when there is security of life and property and a conducive environment with exciting media facilities, CCTV and adequate field of play. Football fans love watching their clubs’ matches especially when nothing discourages their presence in the stadium. This study investigated the influence of security on fans’ attendance during Nigeria Professional Football League matches. Descriptive survey research design was used and the population consists of all Nigeria Professional Football League fans. Simple random sampling technique was used to pick a state from the six geo-political zones. 600 respondents comprising male and female fans were sampled from the ten selected vendors’ stands in each selected state. A structured questionnaire on Security and Fan attendance scale (SFAS) was used. The instrument consists of two sections. Section A seeks information on demographic data of the respondents, while section B was used to elicit information on security and fans’ attendance. The modified instrument which consists of 20 items has a reliability coefficient of 0.73. The hypothesis was tested at 0.05 significance level. The completed questionnaire was collated, coded and analyzed using descriptive statistics of frequency counts and percentage and inferential statistics of chi-square (X²). Findings of this study revealed that adequate security significantly influences fan attendance during Nigeria Professional Football League matches. There is no sport that can develop if the facilities in use are inadequate. Improving the condition of the stadium in Nigeria is paramount to the development of the Nigeria Professional Football League. All stakeholders in the organization of the League must put into consideration the need to improve the standard of the stadium as it will help to increase the attendance of fans during matches. Only the standard ones should be used during matches.

Keywords: Adequate Security, fans attendance, football fans, football stadium, Nigeria Professional Football League.

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Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule.

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Authors: Sajith Sajeev

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The application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is widespread in engineering and industry, including aerospace, automotive, and energy. CFD simulations necessitate the use of intricate mathematical models and a substantial amount of computational power to accurately describe the behavior of fluids. The implementation of CFD projects can be difficult, and a well-structured approach to project management is required to assure the timely and cost-effective delivery of high-quality results. This paper's objective is to provide an overview of project management in CFD, including its problems, methodologies, and best practices. The study opens with a discussion of the difficulties connected with CFD project management, such as the complexity of the mathematical models, the need for extensive computational resources, and the difficulties associated with validating and verifying the results. In addition, the study examines the project management methodologies typically employed in CFD, such as the Traditional/Waterfall model, Agile and Scrum. Comparisons are made between the advantages and disadvantages of each technique, and suggestions are made for their effective implementation in CFD projects. The study concludes with a discussion of the best practices for project management in CFD, including the utilization of a well-defined project scope, a clear project plan, and effective teamwork. In addition, it highlights the significance of continuous process improvement and the utilization of metrics to monitor progress and discover improvement opportunities. This article is a resource for project managers, researchers, and practitioners in the field of CFD. It can aid in enhancing project outcomes, reducing risks, and enhancing the productivity of CFD projects. This paper provides a complete overview of project management in CFD and is a great resource for individuals who wish to implement efficient project management methods in CFD projects.

Keywords: Project management, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Traditional/Waterfall methodology, agile methodology, scrum methodology.

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Authors: Wei-Hsin Sun, Jr-Ming Miao, Chang-Hsien Tai, Chien-Chun Hung

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The development of biomimetic micro-aerial-vehicles (MAVs) with flapping wings is the future trend in military/domestic field. The successful flight of MAVs is strongly related to the understanding of unsteady aerodynamic performance of low Reynolds number airfoils under dynamic flapping motion. This study explored the effects of flapping frequency, stroke amplitude, and the inclined angle of stroke plane on lift force and thrust force of a bio-inspiration corrugated airfoil with 33 full factorial design of experiment and ANOVA analysis. Unsteady vorticity flows over a corrugated thin airfoil executing flapping motion are computed with time-dependent two-dimensional laminar incompressible Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the conformal hybrid mesh. The tested freestream Reynolds number based on the chord length of airfoil as characteristic length is fixed of 103. The dynamic mesh technique is applied to model the flapping motion of a corrugated airfoil. Instant vorticity contours over a complete flapping cycle clearly reveals the flow mechanisms for lift force generation are dynamic stall, rotational circulation, and wake capture. The thrust force is produced as the leading edge vortex shedding from the trailing edge of airfoil to form a reverse von Karman vortex. Results also indicated that the inclined angle is the most significant factor on both the lift force and thrust force. There are strong interactions between tested factors which mean an optimization study on parameters should be conducted in further runs.

Keywords: biomimetic, MAVs, aerodynamic, ANOVA analysis.

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Authors: Nida Rizvi, Deeksha Katyal, Varun Joshi

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River Hindon is an important river catering the demand of highly populated rural and industrial cluster of western Uttar Pradesh, India. Water quality of river Hindon is deteriorating at an alarming rate due to various industrial, municipal and agricultural activities. The present study aimed at identifying the pollution sources and quantifying the degree to which these sources are responsible for the deteriorating water quality of the river. Various water quality parameters, like pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, total hardness, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sulphate, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, and total alkalinity were assessed. Water quality data obtained from eight study sites for one year has been subjected to the two multivariate techniques, namely, principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Principal component analysis was applied with the aim to find out spatial variability and to identify the sources responsible for the water quality of the river. Three Varifactors were obtained after varimax rotation of initial principal components using principal component analysis. Cluster analysis was carried out to classify sampling stations of certain similarity, which grouped eight different sites into two clusters. The study reveals that the anthropogenic influence (municipal, industrial, waste water and agricultural runoff) was the major source of river water pollution. Thus, this study illustrates the utility of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and elucidation of multifaceted data sets, recognition of pollution sources/factors and understanding temporal/spatial variations in water quality for effective river water quality management.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, multivariate statistical technique, river Hindon, water Quality.

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Authors: Mohamed H. Khalifa, Fikry I. El-Shahawi, Nabil A. Mansour

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The cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis (Boisduval) is a major insect pest of vegetables and cotton crops in Egypt, and exhibits different levels of tolerance to certain insecticides. Chlorantraniliprole has been registered recently in Egypt for control this insect. The susceptibilities of three S. littoralis populations collected from El Behaira governorate, north Egypt to chlorantraniliprole were determined by leaf-dipping technique on 4^th instar larvae. Obvious variation of toxicity was observed among the laboratory susceptible, and three field populations with LC₅₀ values ranged between 1.53 µg/ml and 6.22 µg/ml. However, all the three field populations were less susceptible to chlorantraniliprole than a laboratory susceptible population. The most tolerant populations were sampled from El Delengat (ED) Province where S. littoralis had been frequently challenged by insecticides. Certain enzyme activity assays were carried out to be correlated with the mechanism of the observed field population tolerance. All field populations showed significantly enhanced activities of detoxification enzymes compared with the susceptible strain. The regression analysis between chlorantraniliprole toxicities and enzyme activities revealed that the highest correlation is between α-esterase or β-esterase (α-β-EST) activity and collected field strains susceptibility, otherwise this correlation is not significant (P > 0.05). Synergism assays showed the ED and susceptible strains could be synergized by known detoxification inhibitors such as piperonyl butoxide (PBO), triphenyl phosphate (TPP) and diethyl-maleate (DEM) at different levels (1.01-8.76-fold and 1.09-2.94 fold, respectively), TPP showed the maximum synergism in both strains. The results show that there is a correlation between the enzyme activity and tolerance, and carboxylic-esterase (Car-EST) is likely the main detoxification mechanism responsible for tolerance of S. littoralis to chlorantraniliprole.

Keywords: Chlorantraniliprole, detoxification enzymes, Egypt, Spodoptera littoralis.

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Authors: Anand B. Desamala, Ashok Kumar Dasamahapatra, Tapas K. Mandal

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In the present work, detailed analysis on flow characteristics of a pair of immiscible liquids through horizontal pipeline is simulated by using ANSYS FLUENT 6.2. Moderately viscous oil and water (viscosity ratio = 107, density ratio = 0.89 and interfacial tension = 0.024 N/m) have been taken as system fluids for the study. Volume of Fluid (VOF) method has been employed by assuming unsteady flow, immiscible liquid pair, constant liquid properties, and co-axial flow. Meshing has been done using GAMBIT. Quadrilateral mesh type has been chosen to account for the surface tension effect more accurately. From the grid independent study, we have selected 47037 number of mesh elements for the entire geometry. Simulation successfully predicts slug, stratified wavy, stratified mixed and annular flow, except dispersion of oil in water, and dispersion of water in oil. Simulation results are validated with horizontal literature data and good conformity is observed. Subsequently, we have simulated the hydrodynamics (viz., velocity profile, area average pressure across a cross section and volume fraction profile along the radius) of stratified wavy and annular flow at different phase velocities. The simulation results show that in the annular flow, total pressure of the mixture decreases with increase in oil velocity due to the fact that pipe cross section is completely wetted with water. Simulated oil volume fraction shows maximum at the centre in core annular flow, whereas, in stratified flow, maximum value appears at upper side of the pipeline. These results are in accord with the actual flow configuration. Our findings could be useful in designing pipeline for transportation of crude oil.

Keywords: CFD, Horizontal pipeline, Oil-water flow, VOF technique.

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Authors: Gaurav D. Sonawane, Vikas G. Sargade

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The present investigation is a study of the effect of advanced Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) coatings on cutting temperature residual stresses and surface roughness during Duplex Stainless Steel (DSS) 2205 turning. Austenite stabilizers like nickel, manganese, and molybdenum reduced the cost of DSS. Surface Integrity (SI) plays an important role in determining corrosion resistance and fatigue life. Resistance to various types of corrosion makes DSS suitable for applications with critical environments like Heat exchangers, Desalination plants, Seawater pipes and Marine components. However, lower thermal conductivity, poor chip control and non-uniform tool wear make DSS very difficult to machine. Cemented carbide tools (M grade) were used to turn DSS in a dry environment. AlTiN and AlTiCrN coatings were deposited using advanced PVD High Pulse Impulse Magnetron Sputtering (HiPIMS) technique. Experiments were conducted with cutting speed of 100 m/min, 140 m/min and 180 m/min. A constant feed and depth of cut of 0.18 mm/rev and 0.8 mm were used, respectively. AlTiCrN coated tools followed by AlTiN coated tools outperformed uncoated tools due to properties like lower thermal conductivity, higher adhesion strength and hardness. Residual stresses were found to be compressive for all the tools used for dry turning, increasing the fatigue life of the machined component. Higher cutting temperatures were observed for coated tools due to its lower thermal conductivity, which results in very less tool wear than uncoated tools. Surface roughness with uncoated tools was found to be three times higher than coated tools due to lower coefficient of friction of coating used.

Keywords: Cutting temperatures, DSS2205, dry turning, HiPIMS, surface integrity.

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Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

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Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: Lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters.

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Authors: Kasra Majbouri Yazdi, Adel Majbouri Yazdi, Saeid Khodayi, Jingyu Hou, Wanlei Zhou, Saeed Saedy

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Fake news and false information are big challenges of all types of media, especially social media. There is a lot of false information, fake likes, views and duplicated accounts as big social networks such as Facebook and Twitter admitted. Most information appearing on social media is doubtful and in some cases misleading. They need to be detected as soon as possible to avoid a negative impact on society. The dimensions of the fake news datasets are growing rapidly, so to obtain a better result of detecting false information with less computation time and complexity, the dimensions need to be reduced. One of the best techniques of reducing data size is using feature selection method. The aim of this technique is to choose a feature subset from the original set to improve the classification performance. In this paper, a feature selection method is proposed with the integration of K-means clustering and Support Vector Machine (SVM) approaches which work in four steps. First, the similarities between all features are calculated. Then, features are divided into several clusters. Next, the final feature set is selected from all clusters, and finally, fake news is classified based on the final feature subset using the SVM method. The proposed method was evaluated by comparing its performance with other state-of-the-art methods on several specific benchmark datasets and the outcome showed a better classification of false information for our work. The detection performance was improved in two aspects. On the one hand, the detection runtime process decreased, and on the other hand, the classification accuracy increased because of the elimination of redundant features and the reduction of datasets dimensions.

Keywords: Fake news detection, feature selection, support vector machine, K-means clustering, machine learning, social media.

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Authors: A. A. Zaidan, Anas Majeed, B. B. Zaidan

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Nowadays, the rapid development of multimedia and internet allows for wide distribution of digital media data. It becomes much easier to edit, modify and duplicate digital information Besides that, digital documents are also easy to copy and distribute, therefore it will be faced by many threatens. It-s a big security and privacy issue with the large flood of information and the development of the digital format, it become necessary to find appropriate protection because of the significance, accuracy and sensitivity of the information. Nowadays protection system classified with more specific as hiding information, encryption information, and combination between hiding and encryption to increase information security, the strength of the information hiding science is due to the non-existence of standard algorithms to be used in hiding secret messages. Also there is randomness in hiding methods such as combining several media (covers) with different methods to pass a secret message. In addition, there are no formal methods to be followed to discover the hidden data. For this reason, the task of this research becomes difficult. In this paper, a new system of information hiding is presented. The proposed system aim to hidden information (data file) in any execution file (EXE) and to detect the hidden file and we will see implementation of steganography system which embeds information in an execution file. (EXE) files have been investigated. The system tries to find a solution to the size of the cover file and making it undetectable by anti-virus software. The system includes two main functions; first is the hiding of the information in a Portable Executable File (EXE), through the execution of four process (specify the cover file, specify the information file, encryption of the information, and hiding the information) and the second function is the extraction of the hiding information through three process (specify the steno file, extract the information, and decryption of the information). The system has achieved the main goals, such as make the relation of the size of the cover file and the size of information independent and the result file does not make any conflict with anti-virus software.

Keywords: Cryptography, Steganography, Portable ExecutableFile.

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Authors: N. S. Pradeep, M. Balasingh Moses, V. Aarthi

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Any signal transmitted over a channel is corrupted by noise and interference. A host of channel coding techniques has been proposed to alleviate the effect of such noise and interference. Among these Turbo codes are recommended, because of increased capacity at higher transmission rates and superior performance over convolutional codes. The multimedia elements which are associated with ample amount of data are best protected by Turbo codes. Turbo decoder employs Maximum A-posteriori Probability (MAP) and Soft Output Viterbi Decoding (SOVA) algorithms. Conventional Turbo coded systems employ Equal Error Protection (EEP) in which the protection of all the data in an information message is uniform. Some applications involve Unequal Error Protection (UEP) in which the level of protection is higher for important information bits than that of other bits. In this work, enhancement to the traditional Log MAP decoding algorithm is being done by using optimized scaling factors for both the decoders. The error correcting performance in presence of UEP in Additive White Gaussian Noise channel (AWGN) and Rayleigh fading are analyzed for the transmission of image with Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) as source coding technique. This paper compares the performance of log MAP, Modified log MAP (MlogMAP) and Enhanced log MAP (ElogMAP) algorithms used for image transmission. The MlogMAP algorithm is found to be best for lower Eb/N0 values but for higher Eb/N0 ElogMAP performs better with optimized scaling factors. The performance comparison of AWGN with fading channel indicates the robustness of the proposed algorithm. According to the performance of three different message classes, class3 would be more protected than other two classes. From the performance analysis, it is observed that ElogMAP algorithm with UEP is best for transmission of an image compared to Log MAP and MlogMAP decoding algorithms.

Keywords: AWGN, BER, DCT, Fading, MAP, UEP.

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Authors: Raquib Ahsan, Md. Mahir Asif, Md. Zahidul Alam

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A huge portion of old masonry buildings in Bangladesh are vulnerable to earthquake. In most of the cases these buildings contain unreinforced masonry wall which are most likely to be subjected to earthquake damages. Due to deterioration of mortar joint and aging, shear resistance of these unreinforced masonry walls dwindle. So, retrofitting of these old buildings has become an important issue. Among many researched and experimented techniques, ferrocement retrofitting can be a low cost technique in context of the economic condition of Bangladesh. This study aims at investigating the behavior of ferrocement retrofitted unconfined URM walls under different types of cyclic loading. Four 725 mm × 725 mm masonry wall units were prepared with bricks jointed by stretcher bond with 12.5 mm mortar between two adjacent layers of bricks. To compare the effectiveness of ferrocement retrofitting a particular type wire mesh was used in this experiment which is 20 gauge woven wire mesh with 12.5 mm × 12.5 mm square opening. After retrofitting with ferrocement these wall units were tested by applying cyclic deformation along the diagonals of the specimens. Then a comparative study was performed between the retrofitted specimens and control specimens for both partially reversed cyclic load condition and cyclic compression load condition. The experiment results show that ultimate load carrying capacities of ferrocement retrofitted specimens are 35% and 27% greater than the control specimen under partially reversed cyclic loading and cyclic compression respectively. And before failure the deformations of ferrocement retrofitted specimens are 43% and 33% greater than the control specimen under reversed cyclic loading and cyclic compression respectively. Therefore, the test results show that the ultimate load carrying capacity and ductility of ferrocement retrofitted specimens have improved.

Keywords: Cyclic compression, ferrocement, masonry wall, partially reversed cyclic load, retrofitting.

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Authors: Olupemi E. Oludare

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This paper discusses the thematic structure of Yoruba popular music of Southwest Nigeria. It examines the use of themes and variations in early and contemporary Juju music. The work is an outcome of a research developed by the author in his doctoral studies at the University of Lagos, Nigeria, with the aim of analyzing the thematic and motivic developments in Yoruba popular genres. Observations, interviews, live recordings and CDs were used as methods for eliciting information. Field recordings and CDs of selected musical samples were also transcribed and notated. The research established the prevalent use of string of themes by Juju musicians as a compositional technique in moving from one musical section to another, as they communicate the verbal messages in their song. These themes consist of the popular ‘call and response’ form found in most African music, analogous to the western ‘subject and answer’ style of the fugue or sonata form, although without the tonic– dominant relations. Due to the short and repetitive form of African melodies and rhythms, a theme is restated as a variation, where its rhythmic and melodic motifs are stylistically developed and repeated, but still retaining its recognizable core musical structure. The findings of this study showed that Juju musicians generally often employ a thematic plan where new themes are used to arrange the songs into sections, and each theme is developed into variations in order to further expand the music, eliminate monotony, and create musical aesthetics, serving as hallmark of its musical identity. The study established the musical and extra-musical attributes of the genre, while recommending further research towards analyzing the various compositional techniques employed in African popular genres.

Keywords: Compositional techniques, Popular music, Theme and variation, Thematic development.

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Authors: M.H. Ahmad Fadzil, Esa Prakasa, Hurriyatul Fitriyah, Hermawan Nugroho, Azura Mohd Affandi, S.H. Hussein

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Psoriasis is a widespread skin disease affecting up to 2% population with plaque psoriasis accounting to about 80%. It can be identified as a red lesion and for the higher severity the lesion is usually covered with rough scale. Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) scoring is the gold standard method for measuring psoriasis severity. Scaliness is one of PASI parameter that needs to be quantified in PASI scoring. Surface roughness of lesion can be used as a scaliness feature, since existing scale on lesion surface makes the lesion rougher. The dermatologist usually assesses the severity through their tactile sense, therefore direct contact between doctor and patient is required. The problem is the doctor may not assess the lesion objectively. In this paper, a digital image analysis technique is developed to objectively determine the scaliness of the psoriasis lesion and provide the PASI scaliness score. Psoriasis lesion is modelled by a rough surface. The rough surface is created by superimposing a smooth average (curve) surface with a triangular waveform. For roughness determination, a polynomial surface fitting is used to estimate average surface followed by a subtraction between rough and average surface to give elevation surface (surface deviations). Roughness index is calculated by using average roughness equation to the height map matrix. The roughness algorithm has been tested to 444 lesion models. From roughness validation result, only 6 models can not be accepted (percentage error is greater than 10%). These errors occur due the scanned image quality. Roughness algorithm is validated for roughness measurement on abrasive papers at flat surface. The Pearson-s correlation coefficient of grade value (G) of abrasive paper and Ra is -0.9488, its shows there is a strong relation between G and Ra. The algorithm needs to be improved by surface filtering, especially to overcome a problem with noisy data.

Keywords: psoriasis, roughness algorithm, polynomial surfacefitting.

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Authors: I. Ludviga, A. Kalvina

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This paper aims to link together the concepts of job satisfaction, work engagement, trust, job meaningfulness and loyalty to the organisation focusing on specific type of employment – academic jobs. The research investigates the relationships between job satisfaction, work engagement and loyalty as well as the impact of trust and job meaningfulness on the work engagement and loyalty. The survey was conducted in one of the largest Latvian higher education institutions and the sample was drawn from academic staff (n=326). Structured questionnaire with 44 reflective type questions was developed to measure the constructs. Data was analysed using SPSS and Smart-PLS software. Variance based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) technique was used to test the model and to predict the most important factors relevant to employee engagement and loyalty. The first order model included two endogenous constructs (loyalty and intention to stay and recommend to work in this organisation, and employee engagement), as well as six exogenous constructs (feeling of fair treatment and trust in management; career growth opportunities; compensation, pay and benefits; management; colleagues and teamwork; and finally job meaningfulness). Job satisfaction was developed as second order construct and both: first and second order models were designed for data analysis. It was found that academics are more engaged than satisfied with their work and main reason for that was found to be job meaningfulness, which is significant predictor for work engagement, but not for job satisfaction. Compensation is not significantly related to work engagement, but only to job satisfaction. Trust was not significantly related neither to engagement, nor to satisfaction, however, it appeared to be significant predictor of loyalty and intentions to stay with the University. Paper revealed academic jobs as specific kind of employment where employees can be more engaged than satisfied and highlighted the specific role of job meaningfulness in the University settings.

Keywords: Job satisfaction, job meaningfulness, higher education, work engagement.

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Authors: R. Malisa, E. Schwella, K. I. Theletsane

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Due to climate change, population growth and rapid urbanization, the demand for water in South Africa is inevitably surpassing supply. To address similar challenges globally, there has been a paradigm shift from conventional urban waste water management “government” to a “governance” paradigm. From the governance paradigm, Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) principle emerged. This principle emphasizes efficient urban waste water treatment and production of high-quality recyclable effluent. In so doing mimicking natural water systems, in their processes of recycling water efficiently, and averting depletion of natural water resources.  The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of shifting the current urban waste water management approach from a “government” paradigm towards “governance”. The study was conducted through Interactive Management soft systems research methodology which follows a qualitative research design. A case study methodology was employed, guided by realism research philosophy. Qualitative data gathered were analyzed through interpretative structural modelling using Concept Star for Professionals Decision-Making tools (CSPDM) version 3.64.  The constructed model deduced that the main drivers in shifting the Stellenbosch municipal urban waste water management towards IUWM “governance” principles are mainly social elements characterized by overambitious expectations of the public on municipal water service delivery, mis-interpretation of the constitution on access to adequate clean water and sanitation as a human right and perceptions on recycling water by different communities. Inadequate public participation also emerged as a strong driver. However, disruptive events such as draught may play a positive role in raising an awareness on the value of water, resulting in a shift on the perceptions on recycled water. Once the social elements are addressed, the alignment of governance and administration elements towards IUWM are achievable. Hence, the point of departure for the desired paradigm shift is the change of water service authorities and serviced communities’ perceptions and behaviors towards shifting urban waste water management approaches from “government” to “governance” paradigm.

Keywords: Integrated urban water management, urban water system, waste water governance, waste water treatment works.

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Authors: M. Inmaculada Alvarez-Fernández, Celestino González-Nicieza, M. Belén Prendes-Gero, Fernando López-Gayarre

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Among many factors affecting the stability of mining excavations, rock-bursts and tremors play a special role. These dynamic loads occur practically always and have different sources of generation. The most important of them is the commonly used mining technique, which disintegrates a certain area of the rock mass not only in the area of the planned mining, but also creates waves that significantly exceed this area affecting the structural elements. In this work it is analysed the consequences of dynamic loads over the structural elements in an underground room and pillar mine to avoid roof instabilities. With this end, dynamic loads were evaluated through in situ and laboratory tests and simulated with numerical modelling. Initially, the geotechnical characterization of all materials was carried out by mean of large-scale tests. Then, drill holes were done on the roof of the mine and were monitored to determine possible discontinuities in it. Three seismic stations and a triaxial accelerometer were employed to measure the vibrations from blasting tests, establish the dynamic behaviour of roof and pillars and develop the transmission laws. At last, computer simulations by FLAC3D software were done to check the effect of vibrations on the stability of the roofs. The study shows that in-situ tests have a greater reliability than laboratory samples because of eliminating the effect of heterogeneities, that the pillars work decreasing the amplitude of the vibration around them, and that the tensile strength of a beam and depending on its span is overcome with waves in phase and delayed. The obtained transmission law allows designing a blasting which guarantees safety and prevents the risk of future failures.

Keywords: Dynamic modelling, long term instability risks, room and pillar, seismic collapse.

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Authors: N. Pritchard

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Within architectural education, students arrive fore-armed with; their life-experience; knowledge gained from subject-based learning; their brains and more specifically their imaginations. The learning-by-doing that they embark on in studio-based/project-based learning calls for supervision that allows the student to proactively undertake research and experimentation with design solution possibilities. The degree to which this supervision includes direction is subject to debate and differing opinion. It can be argued that if the student is to learn-by-doing, then design decision making within the design process needs to be instigated and owned by the student so that they have the ability to personally reflect on and evaluate those decisions. Within this premise lies the problem that the student's endeavours can become unstructured and unfocused as they work their way into a new and complex activity. A resultant weakness can be that the design activity is compartmented and not holistic or comprehensive, and therefore, the student's reflections are consequently impoverished in terms of providing a positive, informative feedback loop. The construct proffered in this paper is that a supportive 'armature' or 'Heuristic-Framework' can be developed that facilitates a holistic approach and reflective learning. The normal explorations of architectural design comprise: Analysing the site and context, reviewing building precedents, assimilating the briefing information. However, the student can still be compromised by 'not knowing what they need to know'. The long-serving triad 'Firmness, Commodity and Delight' provides a broad-brush framework of considerations to explore and integrate into good design. If this were further atomised in subdivision formed from the disparate aspects of architectural design that need to be considered within the design process, then the student could sieve through the facts more methodically and reflectively in terms of considering their interrelationship conflict and alliances. The words facts and sieve hold the acronym of the aspects that form the Heuristic-Framework: Function, Aesthetics, Context, Tectonics, Spatial, Servicing, Infrastructure, Environmental, Value and Ecological issues. The Heuristic could be used as a Hermeneutic Model with each aspect of design being focused on and considered in abstraction and then considered in its relation to other aspect and the design proposal as a whole. Importantly, the heuristic could be used as a method for gathering information and enhancing the design brief. The more poetic, mysterious, intuitive, unconscious processes should still be able to occur for the student. The Heuristic-Framework should not be seen as comprehensive prescriptive formulaic or inhibiting to the wide exploration of possibilities and solutions within the architectural design process.

Keywords: Atomistic, hermeneutic, holistic, approach architectural design studio education.

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Authors: Laura Elena De León Prado, Dora Alicia Cortés Hernández, Javier Sánchez

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Among the different cancer treatments that are currently used, hyperthermia has a promising potential due to the multiple benefits that are obtained by this technique. In general terms, hyperthermia is a method that takes advantage of the sensitivity of cancer cells to heat, in order to damage or destroy them. Within the different ways of supplying heat to cancer cells and achieve their destruction or damage, the use of magnetic nanoparticles has attracted attention due to the capability of these particles to generate heat under the influence of an external magnetic field. In addition, these nanoparticles have a high surface area and sizes similar or even lower than biological entities, which allow their approaching and interaction with a specific region of interest. The most used magnetic nanoparticles for hyperthermia treatment are those based on iron oxides, mainly magnetite and maghemite, due to their biocompatibility, good magnetic properties and chemical stability. However, in order to fulfill more efficiently the requirements that demand the treatment of magnetic hyperthermia, there have been investigations using ferrites that incorporate different metallic ions, such as Mg, Mn, Co, Ca, Ni, Cu, Li, Gd, etc., in their structure. This paper reports the synthesis of nanosized Mg_xMn_1-xFe₂O₄ (x = 0.3 and 0.4) ferrites by sol-gel method and their evaluation in terms of heating capability and in vitro hemolysis to determine the potential use of these nanoparticles as thermoseeds for the treatment of cancer by magnetic hyperthermia. It was possible to obtain ferrites with nanometric sizes, a single crystalline phase with an inverse spinel structure and a behavior near to that of superparamagnetic materials. Additionally, at concentrations of 10 mg of magnetic material per mL of water, it was possible to reach a temperature of approximately 45°C, which is within the range of temperatures used for the treatment of hyperthermia. The results of the in vitro hemolysis assay showed that, at the concentrations tested, these nanoparticles are non-hemolytic, as their percentage of hemolysis is close to zero. Therefore, these materials can be used as thermoseeds for the treatment of cancer by magnetic hyperthermia.

Keywords: Ferrites, heating capability, hemolysis, nanoparticles, sol-gel.

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Authors: Vinod B. Suryawanshi, Ajit D. Kelkar

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Composite materials, due to their unique properties such as high strength to weight ratio, corrosion resistance, and impact resistance have huge potential as structural materials in automotive, construction and transportation applications. However, these properties often come at higher cost owing to complex design methods, difficult manufacturing processes and raw material cost. Traditionally, tapered laminated composite structures are manufactured using autoclave manufacturing process by ply drop off technique. Autoclave manufacturing though very powerful suffers from high capital investment and higher energy consumption. As per the current trends in composite manufacturing, Out of Autoclave (OoA) processes are looked as emerging technologies for manufacturing the structural composite components for aerospace and defense applications. However, there is a need for improvement among these processes to make them reliable and consistent. In this paper, feasibility of using out of autoclave process to manufacture the variable thickness cantilever beam is discussed. The minimum weight design for the composite beam is obtained using constant stress beam concept by tailoring the thickness of the beam. Ply drop off techniques was used to fabricate the variable thickness beam from glass/epoxy prepregs. Experiments were conducted to measure bending stresses along the span of the cantilever beam at different intervals by applying the concentrated load at the free end. Experimental results showed that the stresses in the bean at different intervals were constant. This proves the ability of OoA process to manufacture the constant stress beam. Finite element model for the constant stress beam was developed using commercial finite element simulation software. It was observed that the simulation results agreed very well with the experimental results and thus validated design and manufacturing approach used.

Keywords: Beams, Composites, Constant Stress, Structures.

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Authors: Obaid AlOtaibi, Salman Hussain

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Wind energy is associated with many geographical factors including wind speed, climate change, surface topography, environmental impacts, and several economic factors, most notably the advancement of wind technology and energy prices. It is the fastest-growing and least economically expensive method for generating electricity. Wind energy generation is directly related to the characteristics of spatial wind. Therefore, the feasibility study for the wind energy conversion system is based on the value of the energy obtained relative to the initial investment and the cost of operation and maintenance. In Kuwait, wind energy is an appropriate choice as a source of energy generation. It can be used in groundwater extraction in agricultural areas such as Al-Abdali in the north and Al-Wafra in the south, or in fresh and brackish groundwater fields or remote and isolated locations such as border areas and projects away from conventional power electricity services, to take advantage of alternative energy, reduce pollutants, and reduce energy production costs. The study covers the State of Kuwait with an exception of metropolitan area. Climatic data were attained through the readings of eight distributed monitoring stations affiliated with Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR). The data were used to assess the daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual available wind energy accessible for utilization. The researchers applied the Suitability Model to analyze the study by using the ArcGIS program. It is a model of spatial analysis that compares more than one location based on grading weights to choose the most suitable one. The study criteria are: the average annual wind speed, land use, topography of land, distance from the main road networks, urban areas. According to the previous criteria, the four proposed locations to establish wind farm projects are selected based on the weights of the degree of suitability (excellent, good, average, and poor). The percentage of areas that represents the most suitable locations with an excellent rank (4) is 8% of Kuwait’s area. It is relatively distributed as follows: Al-Shqaya, Al-Dabdeba, Al-Salmi (5.22%), Al-Abdali (1.22%), Umm al-Hayman (0.70%), North Wafra and Al-Shaqeeq (0.86%). The study recommends to decision-makers to consider the proposed location (No.1), (Al-Shqaya, Al-Dabdaba, and Al-Salmi) as the most suitable location for future development of wind farms in Kuwait, this location is economically feasible.

Keywords: Kuwait, renewable energy, spatial analysis, wind energy.

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Authors: O. I. H. Dimitry, N. A. Mansour, A. L. G. Saad

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Natural sodium montmorillonite (NaMMT), Cloisite Na⁺ and two organophilic montmorillonites (OMMTs), Cloisites 20A and 15A were used. Polycaprolactone (PCL)/MMT composites containing 1, 3, 5, and 10 wt% of Cloisite Na⁺ and PCL/OMMT nanocomposites containing 5 and 10 wt% of Cloisites 20A and 15A were prepared via solution intercalation technique to study the influence of organic modifier loading on particle dispersion of PCL/ NaMMT composites. Thermal stabilities of the obtained composites were characterized by thermal analysis using the thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) which showed that in the presence of nitrogen flow the incorporation of 5 and 10 wt% of filler brings some decrease in PCL thermal stability in the sequence: Cloisite Na+>Cloisite 15A > Cloisite 20A, while in the presence of air flow these fillers scarcely influenced the thermoxidative stability of PCL by slightly accelerating the process. The interaction between PCL and silicate layers was studied by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy which confirmed moderate interactions between nanometric silicate layers and PCL segments. The electrical conductivity (σ) which describes the ionic mobility of the systems was studied as a function of temperature and showed that σ of PCL was enhanced on increasing the modifier loading at filler content of 5 wt%, especially at higher temperatures in the sequence: Cloisite Na⁺<Cloisite 20A<Cloisite 15A, and was then decreased to some extent with a further increase to 10 wt%. The activation energy E_σ obtained from the dependency of σ on temperature using Arrhenius equation was found to be lowest for the nanocomposite containing 5 wt% of Cloisite 15A. The dispersed behavior of clay in PCL matrix was evaluated by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analyses which revealed partial intercalated structures in PCL/NaMMT composites and semi-intercalated/semi-exfoliated structures in PCL/OMMT nanocomposites containing 5 wt% of Cloisite 20A or Cloisite 15A.

Keywords: Polycaprolactone, organoclay, nanocomposite, montmorillonite, electrical conductivity, activation energy, exfoliation, intercalation.

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Authors: E. J. Cilliers

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It is the living conditions in the cities that determine the future of our livelihood. “To change life, we must first change space"- Henri Lefebvre. Sustainable development is a utopian aspiration for South African cities (especially the case study of the Gauteng City Region), which are currently characterized by unplanned growth and increasing urban sprawl. While the reasons for poor environmental quality and living conditions are undoubtedly diverse and complex, having political, economical and social dimensions, it is argued that the prevailing approach to layout planning in South Africa is part of the problem. This article seeks a solution to the problem of sustainability, from a spatial planning perspective. The spatial planning tool, the urban development boundary, is introduced as the concept that will ensure empty talk being translated into a sustainable vision. The urban development boundary is a spatial planning tool that can be used and implemented to direct urban growth towards a more sustainable form. The urban development boundary aims to ensure planned urban areas, in contrast to the current unplanned areas characterized by urban sprawl and insufficient infrastructure. However, the success of the urban development boundary concept is subject to effective implementation measures, as well as adequate and efficient management. The concept of sustainable development can function as a driving force underlying societal change and transformation, but the interface between spatial planning and environmental management needs to be established (as this is the core aspects underlying sustainable development), and authorities needs to understand and implement this interface consecutively. This interface can, however, realize in terms of the objectives of the planning tool – the urban development boundary. The case study, the Gauteng City Region, is depicted as a site of economic growth and innovation, but there is a lack of good urban and regional governance, impacting on the design (layout) and function of urban areas and land use, as current authorities make uninformed decisions in terms of development applications, leading to unsustainable urban forms and unsustainable nodes. Place and space concepts are thus critical matters applicable to planning of the Gauteng City Region. The urban development boundary are thus explored as a planning tool to guide decision-making, and create a sustainable urban form, leading to better environmental and living conditions, and continuous sustainability.

Keywords: Urban planning, sustainable urban form, urbandevelopment boundary, planning tool.

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Authors: Yousef Swesi, Asia Elmeshergi, Abdelati Elalem, Walid Alfoghy

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This paper involves a study of the heavy metal pollution of the soils around one of cement plants in Libya called Suk-Alkhameas and surrounding urban areas caused by cement kiln dust (CKD) emitted. Samples of soil was collected from sites at four directions around the cement factory at distances 250m, 1000m, and 3000m from the factory and at (0-10)cm deep in the soil. These samples are analyzed for Fe (iii), Zn(ii), and Pb (ii) as major pollutants. These values are compared with soils at 25 Km distances from the factory as a reference or control samples. The results show that the concentration of Fe ions in the surface soil was within the acceptable range of 1000ppm. However, for Zn and Pb ions the concentrations at the east and north sides of the factory were found six fold higher than the benchmark level. This high value was attributed to the wind which blows usually from south to north and from west to east. This work includes an investigation of the adsorption isotherms and adsorption efficiency of CKD as adsorbent of heavy metal ions (Fe (iii), Zn(ii), and Pb(ii)) from the polluted soils of Suk-Alkameas city. The investigation was conducted in batch and fixed bed column flow technique. The adsorption efficiency of the studied heavy metals ions removals onto CKD depends on the pH of the solution. The optimum pH values are found to be in the ranges of 8-10 and decreases at lower pH values. The removal efficiency of these heavy metals ions ranged from 93% for Pb, 94% for Zn, and 98% for Fe ions for 10 g.l^-1 adsorbent concentration. The maximum removal efficiency of these ions was achieved at 50-60 minutes contact times at which equilibrium is reached. Fixed bed column experimental measurements are also made to evaluate CKD as an adsorbent for the heavy metals. Results obtained are with good agreement with Langmuir and Drachsal assumption of multilayer formation on the adsorbent surface.

Keywords: Adsorption, Cement Kiln dust (CKD & CAC), Isotherms, Zn and Pb ions.

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Authors: Eva Tvrdá, Boris Botman, Marek Halenár, Tomáš Slanina, Norbert Lukáč

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In vitro storage and processing of animal semen represents a risk factor to spermatozoa vitality, potentially leading to reduced fertility. A variety of substances isolated from natural sources may exhibit protective or antioxidant properties on the spermatozoon, thus extending the lifespan of stored ejaculates. This study compared the ability of different concentrations of the Salvia officinalis extract on the motility, mitochondrial activity, viability and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production by bovine spermatozoa during different time periods (0, 2, 6 and 24 h) of in vitro culture. Spermatozoa motility was assessed using the Computer-assisted sperm analysis (CASA) system. Cell viability was examined using the metabolic activity MTT assay, the eosin-nigrosin staining technique was used to evaluate the sperm viability and ROS generation was quantified using luminometry. The CASA analysis revealed that the motility in the experimental groups supplemented with 0.5-2 µg/mL Salvia extract was significantly lower in comparison with the control (P<0.05; Time 24 h). At the same time, a long-term exposure of spermatozoa to concentrations ranging between 0.05 µg/mL and 2 µg/mL had a negative impact on the mitochondrial metabolism (P<0.05; Time 24 h). The viability staining revealed that 0.001-1 µg/mL Salvia extract had no effects on bovine male gametes, however 2 µg/mL Salvia had a persisting negative effect on spermatozoa (P<0.05). Furthermore 0.05-2 µg/mL Salvia exhibited an immediate ROS-promoting effect on the sperm culture (P>0.05; Time 0 h and 2 h), which remained significant throughout the entire in vitro culture (P<0.05; Time 24 h). Our results point out to the necessity to examine specific effects the biomolecules present in Salvia officinalis may have individually or collectively on the in vitro sperm vitality and oxidative profile.

Keywords: Bulls, CASA, MTT test, reactive oxygen species, sage, Salvia officinalis, spermatozoa.

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Authors: Salma H. Abu Hafsa, A. Mendonca, B. Brehm-Stecher, A. A. Hassan, S. A. Ibrahim

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Enterococci are important inhabitants of the animal intestine and are widely used in probiotic products. A probiotic strain is expected to possess several desirable properties in order to exert beneficial effects. Therefore, the objective of this study was to isolate, characterize and identify Enterococcus sp. from chicken cecal and fecal samples to determine potential probiotic properties. Enterococci were isolated from chicken ceca and feces of thirty three clinically healthy chickens from a local farm. In vitro studies were performed to assess antibacterial activity of the isolated LAB (using agar well diffusion and cell free supernatant broth technique against Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis), survival in acidic conditions, resistance to bile salts, and their survival during simulated gastric juice conditions at pH 2.5. Isolates were identified by biochemical carbohydrate fermentation patterns using an API 50 CHL kit and API ZYM kits and by sequenced 16S rDNA. An isolate belonging to E. faecium species exhibited inhibitory effect against S. enteritidis. This isolate producing a clear zone as large as 10.30 mm or greater and was able to grow in the coculture medium and at the same time, inhibited the growth S. enteritidis. In addition, E. faecium exhibited significant resistance under highly acidic conditions at pH 2.5 for 8 h and survived well in bile salt at 0.2% for 24 h and showing ability to survive in the presence of simulated gastric juice at pH 2.5. Based on these results, E. faecium isolate fulfills some of the criteria to be considered as a probiotic strain and therefore, could be used as a feed additive with good potential for controlling S. Enteritidis in chickens. However, in vivo studies are needed to determine the safety of the strain.

Keywords: Acid tolerance, antimicrobial activity, Enterococcus faecium, probiotic.

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Authors: Melis Inalpulat, Levent Genc

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In the present study, an attempt was made to state the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transformation over three decades around the urban regions of Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale provincial centers (PCs) in Turkey. Landsat imageries acquired in 1984, 1999 and 2014 were used to determine the LULC change. Images were classified using the supervised classification technique and five main LULC classes were considered including forest (F), agricultural land (A), residential area (urban) - bare soil (R-B), water surface (W), and other (O). Change detection analyses were conducted for 1984-1999 and 1999-2014, and the results were evaluated. Conversions of LULC types to R-B class were investigated. In addition, population changes (1985-2014) were assessed depending on census data, the relations between population and the urban areas were stated, and future populations and urban area needs were forecasted for 2030. The results of LULC analysis indicated that urban areas, which are covered under R-B class, were expanded in all PCs. During 1984-1999 R-B class within Balıkesir, Bursa and Çanakkale PCs were found to have increased by 7.1%, 8.4%, and 2.9%, respectively. The trend continued in the 1999-2014 term and the increment percentages reached to 15.7%, 15.5%, and 10.2% at the end of 30-year period (1984-2014). Furthermore, since A class in all provinces was found to be the principal contributor for the R-B class, urban sprawl lead to the loss of agricultural lands. Moreover, the areas of R-B classes were highly correlated with population within all PCs (R²>0.992). Depending on this situation, both future populations and R-B class areas were forecasted. The estimated values of increase in the R-B class areas for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale PCs were 1,586 ha, 7,999 ha and 854 ha, respectively. Due to this fact, the forecasted values for 2,030 are 7,838 ha, 27,866, and 2,486 ha for Balıkesir, Bursa, and Çanakkale, and thus, 7.7%, 8.2%, and 9.7% more R-B class areas are expected to locate in PCs in respect to the same order.

Keywords: Landsat, LULC change, population, urban sprawl.

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