Search results for: Finite Mixture Models

Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Mujeeb Ur Rehman, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

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This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes, it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity, and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to effect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth

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Keywords: K-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares.

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Authors: Munazza A. Mirza, Khawar Khurshid

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Individuals are generally associated with different learning styles, which have been explored extensively in recent past. The learning styles refer to the potential of an individual by which s/he can easily comprehend and retain information. Among various learning style models, VARK is the most accepted model which categorizes the learners with respect to their sensory characteristics. Based on the number of preferred learning modes, the learners can be categorized as uni-modal, bi-modal, tri-modal, or quad/multi-modal. Although there is a prevalent belief in the learning styles, however, the model is not being frequently and effectively utilized in the higher education. This research describes the identification model to validate teacher’s didactic practice and student’s performance linkage with the learning styles. The identification model is recommended to check the effective application and evaluation of the various learning styles. The proposed model is a guideline to effectively implement learning styles inventory in order to ensure that it will validate performance linkage with learning styles. If performance is linked with learning styles, this may help eradicate the distrust on learning style theory. For this purpose, a comprehensive study was conducted to compare and understand how VARK inventory model is being used to identify learning preferences and their correlation with learner’s performance. A comparative analysis of the findings of these studies is presented to understand the learning styles of tertiary students in various disciplines. It is concluded with confidence that the learning styles of students cannot be associated with any specific discipline. Furthermore, there is not enough empirical proof to link performance with learning styles.

Keywords: Learning style, VARK, sensory preferences, identification model, didactic practices.

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Authors: Nazira Kakulia

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The analysis of transformation of institutional changes outlines two important characteristics. These are: the speed of the changes and their sequence. Successful transformation must be carried out in three different stages; On the first stage, macroeconomic stabilization must be achieved with the help of fiscal and monetary tools. Two-tier banking system should be established and the active functions of central bank should be replaced by the passive ones (reserve requirements and refinancing rate), together with the involvement growth of private sector. Fiscal policy by itself here means the creation of tax system which must replace previously existing direct state revenues; the share of subsidies in the state expenses must be reduced also. The second stage begins after reaching the macroeconomic stabilization at a time of change of formal institutes which must stimulate the private business. Corporate legislation creates a competitive environment at the market and the privatization of state companies takes place. Bankruptcy and contract law is created. he third stage is the most extended one, which means the formation of all state structures that is necessary for the further proper functioning of a market economy. These three stages about the cycle period of political and social transformation and the hierarchy of changes can also be grouped by the different methodology: on the first and the most short-term stage the transfer of power takes place. On the second stage institutions corresponding to new goal are created. The last phase of transformation is extended in time and it includes the infrastructural, socio-cultural and socio-structural changes. The main goal of this research is to explore and identify the features of such kind of models.

Keywords: Competitive, environment, fiscal policy, macro-economic stabilization.

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Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

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Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time.

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Authors: Indiramma M., K. R. Anandakumar

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Trust management and Reputation models are becoming integral part of Internet based applications such as CSCW, E-commerce and Grid Computing. Also the trust dimension is a significant social structure and key to social relations within a collaborative community. Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) is a difficult task in the context of distributed environment (information across different geographical locations) and multidisciplinary decisions are involved such as Virtual Organization (VO). To aid team decision making in VO, Decision Support System and social network analysis approaches are integrated. In such situations social learning helps an organization in terms of relationship, team formation, partner selection etc. In this paper we focus on trust learning. Trust learning is an important activity in terms of information exchange, negotiation, collaboration and trust assessment for cooperation among virtual team members. In this paper we have proposed a reinforcement learning which enhances the trust decision making capability of interacting agents during collaboration in problem solving activity. Trust computational model with learning that we present is adapted for best alternate selection of new project in the organization. We verify our model in a multi-agent simulation where the agents in the community learn to identify trustworthy members, inconsistent behavior and conflicting behavior of agents.

Keywords: Collaborative Decision making, Trust, Multi Agent System (MAS), Bayesian Network, Reinforcement Learning.

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Authors: Edison Muzenda, Corina M Mateescu

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Group contribution methods such as the UNIFAC are very useful to researchers and engineers involved in synthesis, feasibility studies, design and optimization of separation processes. They can be applied successfully to predict phase equilibrium and excess properties in the development of chemical and separation processes. The main focus of this work was to investigate the possibility of absorbing selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) using three selected UNIFAC group contribution methods. Absorption followed by subsequent stripping is the predominant available abatement technology of VOCs from flue gases prior to their release into the atmosphere. The original, modified and effective UNIFAC models were used in this work. The thirteen selected VOCs that have been considered in this research are: pentane, hexane, heptanes, trimethylamine, toluene, xylene, cyclohexane, butyl acetate, diethyl acetate, chloroform, acetone, ethyl methyl ketone and isobutyl methyl ketone. The computation was done for solute VOC concentration of 8.55x10-8 which is well in the infinite dilution region. The results obtained in this study compare very well with those published in literature obtained through both measurements and predictions. The phase equilibrium obtained in this study show that PDMS is a good absorbent for the removal of VOCs from contaminated air streams through physical absorption.

Keywords: Absorption, Computation, Feasibility studies, Infinite dilution, Volatile organic compounds

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Authors: K. Ö. Kartal, L. Maul, M. Hägele

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With the development of new technologies come additional opportunities for the founding of companies and new markets to be created. The barriers to entry are lowered and technology makes old business models obsolete. Incumbent companies have to be adaptable to this quickly changing environment. They have to start the process of digital maturation and they have to be able to adapt quickly to new and drastic changes that might arise. One of the biggest barriers for organizations in order to do so is their culture. This paper shows the core elements of a corporate culture that supports the process of digital maturation in incumbent organizations. Furthermore, it is explored how ideation and innovation can be used in a strategy in order to facilitate these core elements of culture that promote digital maturity. Focus areas are identified for the design of ideation strategies, with the aim to make the facilitation and incitation process more effective, short to long term. Therefore, one in-depth case study is conducted with data collection from interviews, observation, document review and surveys. The findings indicate that digital maturity is connected to cultural shift and 11 relevant elements of digital culture are identified which have to be considered. Based on these 11 core elements, five focus areas that need to be regarded in the design of a strategy that uses ideation and innovation to facilitate the cultural shift are identified. These are: Focus topics, rewards and communication, structure and frequency, regions and new online formats.

Keywords: Digital transformation, innovation management, ideation strategy, creativity culture, change.

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Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, A. Torma, L. T. Kóczy

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Recently, an increasing number of researchers have been focusing on working out realistic solutions to sustainability problems. As sustainability issues gain higher importance for organisations, the management of such decisions becomes critical. Knowledge representation is a fundamental issue of complex knowledge based systems. Many types of sustainability problems would benefit from models based on experts’ knowledge. Cognitive maps have been used for analyzing and aiding decision making. A cognitive map can be made of almost any system or problem. A fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) can successfully represent knowledge and human experience, introducing concepts to represent the essential elements and the cause and effect relationships among the concepts to model the behaviour of any system. Integrated waste management systems (IWMS) are complex systems that can be decomposed to non-related and related subsystems and elements, where many factors have to be taken into consideration that may be complementary, contradictory, and competitive; these factors influence each other and determine the overall decision process of the system. The goal of the present paper is to construct an efficient IWMS which considers various factors. The authors’ intention is to propose an expert based system design approach for implementing expert decision support in the area of IWMSs and introduces an appropriate methodology for the development and analysis of group FCM. A framework for such a methodology consisting of the development and application phases is presented.

Keywords: Factors, fuzzy cognitive map, group decision, integrated waste management system.

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Authors: Somchai Supattarakul, Anya Khanthavit

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This study aims at providing empirical evidence on a comparison of two equity valuation models: (1) the dividend discount model (DDM) and (2) the residual income model (RIM), in estimating equity values of Thai firms during 1995-2004. Results suggest that DDM and RIM underestimate equity values of Thai firms and that RIM outperforms DDM in predicting cross-sectional stock prices. Results on regression of cross-sectional stock prices on the decomposed DDM and RIM equity values indicate that book value of equity provides the greatest incremental explanatory power, relative to other components in DDM and RIM terminal values, suggesting that book value distortions resulting from accounting procedures and choices are less severe than forecast and measurement errors in discount rates and growth rates. We also document that the incremental explanatory power of book value of equity during 1998-2004, representing the information environment under Thai Accounting Standards reformed after the 1997 economic crisis to conform to International Accounting Standards, is significantly greater than that during 1995-1996, representing the information environment under the pre-reformed Thai Accounting Standards. This implies that the book value distortions are less severe under the 1997 Reformed Thai Accounting Standards than the pre-reformed Thai Accounting Standards.

Keywords: Dividend Discount Model, Equity Valuation Model, Residual Income Model, Thai Stock Market

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Authors: Helen S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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In many countries, the construction industry relies heavily on outsourcing models in executing their projects and expanding their businesses to fit in the diverse market. Such extensive integration of subcontractors is becoming an influential factor in contractor’s cash flow management. Accordingly, subcontractors’ financial terms are important phenomena and pivotal components for the well-being of the contractor’s cash flow. The aim of this research is to study the contractor’s cash flow with respect to the owner and subcontractor’s payment management plans, considering variable advance payment, payment frequency, and lag and retention policies. The model is developed to provide contractors with a decision support tool that can assist in selecting the optimum subcontracting plan to minimize the contractor’s financing limits and optimize the profit values. The model is built using Microsoft Excel VBA coding, and the genetic algorithm is utilized as the optimization tool. Three objective functions are investigated, which are minimizing the highest negative overdraft value, minimizing the net present worth of overdraft, and maximizing the project net profit. The model is validated on a full-scale project which includes both self-performed and subcontracted work packages. The results show potential outputs in optimizing the contractor’s negative cash flow values and, in the meantime, assisting contractors in selecting suitable subcontractors to achieve the objective function.

Keywords: Cash flow optimization, payment plan, procurement management, subcontracting plan.

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Authors: Carolin Lutz, Jörg Matthes, Patrick Waibel, Ulrich Precht, Krassimir Garbev, Günter Beuchle, Uwe Schweike, Peter Stemmermann, Hubert B. Keller

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Online measurement of the product quality is a challenging task in cement production, especially in the production of Celitement, a novel environmentally friendly hydraulic binder. The mineralogy and chemical composition of clinker in ordinary Portland cement production is measured by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF), where only crystalline constituents can be detected. But only a small part of the Celitement components can be measured via XRD, because most constituents have an amorphous structure. This paper describes the development of algorithms suitable for an on-line monitoring of the final processing step of Celitement based on NIR-data. For calibration intermediate products were dried at different temperatures and ground for variable durations. The products were analyzed using XRD and thermogravimetric analyses together with NIR-spectroscopy to investigate the dependency between the drying and the milling processes on one and the NIR-signal on the other side. As a result, different characteristic parameters have been defined. A short overview of the Celitement process and the challenging tasks of the online measurement and evaluation of the product quality will be presented. Subsequently, methods for systematic development of near-infrared calibration models and the determination of the final calibration model will be introduced. The application of the model on experimental data illustrates that NIR-spectroscopy allows for a quick and sufficiently exact determination of crucial process parameters.

Keywords: Calibration model, celitement, cementitious material, NIR spectroscopy.

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Authors: A. S. Adesuyi, Z. Munch

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This study investigates the use of a time-series of MODIS NDVI data to identify agricultural land cover change on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend. Following an ISODATA classification of the MODIS imagery to selectively mask areas not agriculture or semi-natural, NDVI signatures were created to identify areas cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data for 2010. The NDVI signature curve and training samples were used to create a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9 using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 including ISODATA classification and Model 2 not. These two models were then used to classify all data for the study area for 2010, producing land cover maps with classification accuracies of 77% and 80% for Model 1 and 2 respectively. Model 2 was subsequently used to create land cover classification and change detection maps for all other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices. Over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. Forty one percent of the catchment comprised of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyards largely remained constant with only one percent conversion to vineyard from other land cover classes.

Keywords: Change detection, Land cover, NDVI, time-series.

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Authors: Hatim Laalej, Salvador Sumohano-Verdeja, Thomas McLeay

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Monitoring of tool wear in milling operations is essential for achieving the desired dimensional accuracy and surface finish of a machined workpiece. Although there are numerous statistical models and artificial intelligence techniques available for monitoring the wear of cutting tools, these techniques cannot pin point which cutting edge of the tool, or which insert in the case of indexable tooling, is worn or broken. Currently, the task of monitoring the wear on the tool cutting edges is carried out by the operator who performs a manual inspection, causing undesirable stoppages of machine tools and consequently resulting in costs incurred from lost productivity. The present study is concerned with the development of a flute tracking system to segment signals related to each physical flute of a cutter with three flutes used in an end milling operation. The purpose of the system is to monitor the cutting condition for individual flutes separately in order to determine their progressive wear rates and to predict imminent tool failure. The results of this study clearly show that signals associated with each flute can be effectively segmented using the proposed flute tracking system. Furthermore, the results illustrate that by segmenting the sensor signal by flutes it is possible to investigate the wear in each physical cutting edge of the cutting tool. These findings are significant in that they facilitate the online condition monitoring of a cutting tool for each specific flute without the need for operators/engineers to perform manual inspections of the tool.

Keywords: Tool condition monitoring, tool wear prediction, milling operation, flute tracking.

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Authors: Seksan Chunothaisawat, Pongchanun Luangpaiboon

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There are two common types of operational research techniques, optimisation and metaheuristic methods. The latter may be defined as a sequential process that intelligently performs the exploration and exploitation adopted by natural intelligence and strong inspiration to form several iterative searches. An aim is to effectively determine near optimal solutions in a solution space. In this work, a type of metaheuristics called Ant Colonies Optimisation, ACO, inspired by a foraging behaviour of ants was adapted to find optimal solutions of eight non-linear continuous mathematical models. Under a consideration of a solution space in a specified region on each model, sub-solutions may contain global or multiple local optimum. Moreover, the algorithm has several common parameters; number of ants, moves, and iterations, which act as the algorithm-s driver. A series of computational experiments for initialising parameters were conducted through methods of Rigid Simplex, RS, and Modified Simplex, MSM. Experimental results were analysed in terms of the best so far solutions, mean and standard deviation. Finally, they stated a recommendation of proper level settings of ACO parameters for all eight functions. These parameter settings can be applied as a guideline for future uses of ACO. This is to promote an ease of use of ACO in real industrial processes. It was found that the results obtained from MSM were pretty similar to those gained from RS. However, if these results with noise standard deviations of 1 and 3 are compared, MSM will reach optimal solutions more efficiently than RS, in terms of speed of convergence.

Keywords: Ant colony optimisation, metaheuristics, modified simplex, non-linear, rigid simplex.

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Authors: M. M. Rahman, Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, K. Kadirgama M. M. Noor, Rosli A. Bakar

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This paper deals optimized model to investigate the effects of peak current, pulse on time and pulse off time in EDM performance on material removal rate of titanium alloy utilizing copper tungsten as electrode and positive polarity of the electrode. The experiments are carried out on Ti6Al4V. Experiments were conducted by varying the peak current, pulse on time and pulse off time. A mathematical model is developed to correlate the influences of these variables and material removal rate of workpiece. Design of experiments (DOE) method and response surface methodology (RSM) techniques are implemented. The validity test of the fit and adequacy of the proposed models has been carried out through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The obtained results evidence that as the material removal rate increases as peak current and pulse on time increases. The effect of pulse off time on MRR changes with peak ampere. The optimum machining conditions in favor of material removal rate are verified and compared. The optimum machining conditions in favor of material removal rate are estimated and verified with proposed optimized results. It is observed that the developed model is within the limits of the agreeable error (about 4%) when compared to experimental results. This result leads to desirable material removal rate and economical industrial machining to optimize the input parameters.

Keywords: Ti-6Al-4V, material removal rate, copper tungsten, positive polarity, RSM.

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Authors: Hebberly Ahatlan

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The process of digitizing energy systems involves transforming traditional energy infrastructure into interconnected, data-driven systems that enhance efficiency, sustainability, and responsiveness. As smart grids become increasingly integral to the efficient distribution and management of electricity from both fossil and renewable energy sources, the energy industry faces strategic challenges associated with digitalization and interoperability — particularly in the context of modern energy business models, such as virtual power plants (VPPs). The critical challenge in modern smart grids is to seamlessly integrate diverse technologies and systems, including virtualization, grid computing and service-oriented architecture (SOA), across the entire energy ecosystem. Achieving this requires addressing issues like semantic interoperability, Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) convergence, and digital asset scalability, all while ensuring security and risk management. This paper proposes a four-layer digitalization framework to tackle these challenges, encompassing persistent data protection, trusted key management, secure messaging, and authentication of IoT resources. Data assets generated through this framework enable AI systems to derive insights for improving smart grid operations, security, and revenue generation. Furthermore, this paper also proposes a Trusted Energy Interoperability Alliance as a universal guiding standard in the development of this digitalization framework to support more dynamic and interoperable energy markets.

Keywords: Digitalization, IT/OT convergence, semantic interoperability, TEIA alliance, VPP.

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Francisco Pereira, José Leandro Néris, Matheus Rippel, Luciane Salvi

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The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.

Keywords: Climate change, hydrological potential, precipitation, mitigation.

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Authors: Nikhil Kewal Krishna Mehta

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In the past researchers have questioned the effectiveness of ethics training in higher education. Also, there are observations that support the view that ethical behaviour (range of actions)/ethical decision making models used in the past make use of vignettes to explain ethical behaviour. The understanding remains in the perspective that these vignettes play a limited role in determining individual intentions and not actions. Some authors have also agreed that there are possibilities of differences in one’s intentions and actions. This paper makes an attempt to fill those gaps by evaluating real actions rather than intentions. In a way this study suggests the use of an experiential methodology to explore Berlo’s model of communication as an action along with orchestration of various principles. To this endeavor, an attempt was made to use conversational analysis in the pursuance of evaluating ethical decision making behaviour among students and middle level managers. The process was repeated six times with the set of an average of 15 participants. Similarities have been observed in the behaviour of students and middle level managers that calls for understanding that both the groups of individuals have no cognizance of their actual actions. The deliberations derived out of conversation were taken a step forward for meta-ethical evaluations to portray a clear picture of ethical behaviour among participants. This study provides insights for understanding demonstrated unconscious human behaviour which may fortuitously be termed both ethical and unethical.

Keywords: Berlo’s action model of communication, Conversational Analysis, Ethical behaviour, Ethical decision making, experiential learning, Intentions and Actions.

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Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Muhammad Mansoor

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Increasing demands of contemporary applications for high strength and lightweight materials prompted the development of metal-matrix composites (MMCs). After the discovery of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in 1991 (revealing an excellent set of mechanical properties) became one of the most promising strengthening materials for MMC applications. Additionally, the relatively low density of the nanotubes imparted high specific strengths, making them perfect strengthening material to reinforce MMCs. In the present study, aluminum-multiwalled carbon nanotubes (Al-MWCNTs) composite was prepared in an air induction furnace. The dispersion of the nanotubes in molten aluminum was assisted by inherent string action of induction heating at 790°C. During the fabrication process, multifunctional fluxes were used to avoid oxidation of the nanotubes and molten aluminum. Subsequently, the melt was cast in to a copper mold and cold rolled to 0.5 mm thickness. During metallographic examination using a scanning electron microscope, it was observed that the nanotubes were effectively dispersed in the matrix. The mechanical properties of the composite were significantly increased as compared to pure aluminum specimen i.e. the yield strength from 65 to 115 MPa, the tensile strength from 82 to 125 MPa and hardness from 27 to 30 HV for pure aluminum and Al-CNTs composite, respectively. To recognize the associated strengthening mechanisms in the nanocomposites, three foremost strengthening models i.e. shear lag model, Orowan looping and Hall-Petch have been critically analyzed; experimental data were found to be closely satisfying the shear lag model.

Keywords: Carbon nanotubes, induction melting, nanocomposite, strengthening mechanism.

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Authors: Su-Yan Tang, Wei Zhang, Shan Mei, Yi-Fan Zhu

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Network-Centric Air Defense Missile Systems (NCADMS) represents the superior development of the air defense missile systems and has been regarded as one of the major research issues in military domain at present. Due to lack of knowledge and experience on NCADMS, modeling and simulation becomes an effective approach to perform operational analysis, compared with those equation based ones. However, the complex dynamic interactions among entities and flexible architectures of NCADMS put forward new requirements and challenges to the simulation framework and models. ABS (Agent-Based Simulations) explicitly addresses modeling behaviors of heterogeneous individuals. Agents have capability to sense and understand things, make decisions, and act on the environment. They can also cooperate with others dynamically to perform the tasks assigned to them. ABS proves an effective approach to explore the new operational characteristics emerging in NCADMS. In this paper, based on the analysis of network-centric architecture and new cooperative engagement strategies for NCADMS, an agent-based simulation framework by expanding the simulation framework in the so-called System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) was designed. The simulation framework specifies components, relationships and interactions between them, the structure and behavior rules of an agent in NCADMS. Based on scenario simulations, information and decision superiority and operational advantages in NCADMS were analyzed; meanwhile some suggestions were provided for its future development.

Keywords: air defense missile systems, network-centric, agent-based simulation, simulation framework, information superiority, decision superiority, operational advantages

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Authors: E.Sasikumar, T.Viruthagiri

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Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation (SSF) of sugarcane bagasse by cellulase and Pachysolen tannophilus MTCC *1077 were investigated in the present study. Important process variables for ethanol production form pretreated bagasse were optimized using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) based on central composite design (CCD) experiments. A 23 five level CCD experiments with central and axial points was used to develop a statistical model for the optimization of process variables such as incubation temperature (25–45°) X1, pH (5.0–7.0) X2 and fermentation time (24–120 h) X3. Data obtained from RSM on ethanol production were subjected to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and analyzed using a second order polynomial equation and contour plots were used to study the interactions among three relevant variables of the fermentation process. The fermentation experiments were carried out using an online monitored modular fermenter 2L capacity. The processing parameters setup for reaching a maximum response for ethanol production was obtained when applying the optimum values for temperature (32°C), pH (5.6) and fermentation time (110 h). Maximum ethanol concentration (3.36 g/l) was obtained from 50 g/l pretreated sugarcane bagasse at the optimized process conditions in aerobic batch fermentation. Kinetic models such as Monod, Modified Logistic model, Modified Logistic incorporated Leudeking – Piret model and Modified Logistic incorporated Modified Leudeking – Piret model have been evaluated and the constants were predicted.

Keywords: Sugarcane bagasse, ethanol, optimization, Pachysolen tannophilus.

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Authors: Etienne Provencal, David L. St-Pierre

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A facility exploiting only electronic gambling machines (EGMs) opened in 2007 in Quebec City, Canada under the name of Salons de Jeux du Québec (SdjQ). This facility is one of the first worldwide to rely on that business model. This paper models the performance of such EGMs. The interest from a managerial point of view is to identify the variables that can be controlled or influenced so that a comprehensive model can help improve the overall performance of the business. The EGM individual performance model contains eight different variables under study (Game Title, Progressive jackpot, Bonus Round, Minimum Coin-in, Maximum Coin-in, Denomination, Slant Top and Position). Using data from Quebec City’s SdjQ, a linear regression analysis explains 90.80% of the EGM performance. Moreover, results show a behavior slightly different than that of a casino. The addition of GameTitle as a factor to predict the EGM performance is one of the main contributions of this paper. The choice of the game (GameTitle) is very important. Games having better position do not have significantly better performance than games located elsewhere on the gaming floor. Progressive jackpots have a positive and significant effect on the individual performance of EGMs. The impact of BonusRound on the dependent variable is significant but negative. The effect of Denomination is significant but weakly negative. As expected, the Language of an EGMS does not impact its individual performance. This paper highlights some possible improvements by indicating which features are performing well. Recommendations are given to increase the performance of the EGMs performance.

Keywords: EGM, linear regression, model prediction, slot operations.

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

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The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: Climate change, solar radiation, energy utilization.

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Authors: S. Zith Dey Babu, S. Kour, S. Verma, C. Verma, V. Pathania, A. Agrawal, V. Chaudhary, A. Manoj Puthur, R. Goyal, A. Pal, T. Danti Dey, A. Kumar, K. Wadhwa, O. Ved

Abstract:

Background: Skin cancer is now is the buzzing button in the field of medical science. The cyst's pandemic is drastically calibrating the body and well-being of the global village. Methods: The extracted image of the skin tumor cannot be used in one way for diagnosis. The stored image contains anarchies like the center. This approach will locate the forepart of an extracted appearance of skin. Partitioning image models has been presented to sort out the disturbance in the picture. Results: After completing partitioning, feature extraction has been formed by using genetic algorithm and finally, classification can be performed between the trained and test data to evaluate a large scale of an image that helps the doctors for the right prediction. To bring the improvisation of the existing system, we have set our objectives with an analysis. The efficiency of the natural selection process and the enriching histogram is essential in that respect. To reduce the false-positive rate or output, GA is performed with its accuracy. Conclusions: The objective of this task is to bring improvisation of effectiveness. GA is accomplishing its task with perfection to bring down the invalid-positive rate or outcome. The paper's mergeable portion conflicts with the composition of deep learning and medical image processing, which provides superior accuracy. Proportional types of handling create the reusability without any errors.

Keywords: Computer-aided system, detection, image segmentation, morphology.

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Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

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Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include the cost of infrastructure, personnel, and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion, and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. This research aims to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using Machine Learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons, like overspeeding, etc., in the United States. These factors range from meteorological elements such as weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity, to human-made structures, like road structure components such as Bumps, Roundabouts, No Exit, Turning Loops, Give Away, etc. The probabilities are categorized into ten distinct classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes in all states collected by the US government. The probability of the crash was determined by employing Multinomial Expected Value, and a classification label was assigned accordingly. We applied three classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-depth insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: Road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning.

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Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

Abstract:

The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: Data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation.

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Authors: Emin Z. Mahmud

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This paper presents the observations from a series of shaking-table tests done on a 1:1 scaled confined masonry wall model, with opening for a door – specimens CMDuS (confined masonry wall with opening for a door before strengthening) and CMDS (confined masonry wall with opening for a door after strengthening). Frequency and stiffness changes before and after GFRP (Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic) wall strengthening are analyzed. Definition of dynamic properties of the models was the first step of the experimental testing, which enabled acquiring important information about the achieved stiffness (natural frequencies) of the model. The natural frequency was defined in the Y direction of the model by applying resonant frequency search tests. It is important to mention that both specimens CMDuS and CMDS are subjected to the same effects. The tests are realized in the laboratory of the Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS), Skopje. The specimens were examined separately on the shaking table, with uniaxial, in-plane excitation. After testing, samples were strengthened with GFRP and re-tested. The initial frequency of the undamaged model CMDuS is 13.55 Hz, while at the end of the testing, the frequency decreased to 6.38 Hz. This emphasizes the reduction of the initial stiffness of the model due to damage, especially in the masonry and tie-beam to tie-column connection. After strengthening of the damaged wall, the natural frequency increases to 10.89 Hz. This highlights the beneficial effect of the strengthening. After completion of dynamic testing at CMDS, the natural frequency is reduced to 6.66 Hz.

Keywords: Behavior of masonry structures, Eurocode, fundamental frequency, masonry, shaking table test, strengthening.

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Authors: A.L. Seetharam, B.L. Udaya Simha

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The Bangalore City is facing the acute problem of pollution in the atmosphere due to the heavy increase in the traffic and developmental activities in recent years. The present study is an attempt in the direction to assess trend of the ambient air quality status of three stations, viz., AMCO Batteries Factory, Mysore Road, GRAPHITE INDIA FACTORY, KHB Industrial Area, Whitefield and Ananda Rao Circle, Gandhinagar with respect to some of the major criteria pollutants such as Total Suspended particular matter (SPM), Oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and Oxides of sulphur (SO2). The sites are representative of various kinds of growths viz., commercial, residential and industrial, prevailing in Bangalore, which are contributing to air pollution. The concentration of Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) at all locations showed a falling trend due to use of refined petrol and diesel in the recent years. The concentration of Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) showed an increasing trend but was within the permissible limits. The concentration of the Suspended particular matter (SPM) showed the mixed trend. The correlation between model and observed values is found to vary from 0.4 to 0.7 for SO2, 0.45 to 0.65 for NOx and 0.4 to 0.6 for SPM. About 80% of data is observed to fall within the error band of ±50%. Forecast test for the best fit models showed the same trend as actual values in most of the cases. However, the deviation observed in few cases could be attributed to change in quality of petro products, increase in the volume of traffic, introduction of LPG as fuel in many types of automobiles, poor condition of roads, prevailing meteorological conditions, etc.

Keywords: Bangalore, urban air pollution, time series analysis.

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Authors: Basyir Yaman, Fades Br. Gultom

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The picture and pattern of Islamic education in the Prophet's period in Mecca and Medina is the history of the past that we need to bring back. The Basic Education Institute called Kuttab. Kuttab or Maktab comes from the word kataba which means to write. The popular Kuttab in the Prophet’s period aims to resolve the illiteracy in the Arab community. In Indonesia, this Institution has 25 branches; one of them is located in Semarang (i.e. Kuttab Al-Fatih). Kuttab Al-Fatih as a non-formal institution of Islamic education is reserved for children aged 5-12 years. The independently designed curriculum is a distinctive feature that distinguishes between Kuttab Al-Fatih curriculum and the formal institutional curriculum in Indonesia. The curriculum includes the faith and the Qur’an. Kuttab Al-Fatih has been licensed as a Community Activity Learning Center under the direct supervision and guidance of the National Education Department. Here, we focus to describe the implementation of curriculum Kuttab Al-Fatih Semarang (i.e. faith and al-Qur’an). After that, we determine the relevance between the implementation of the Kuttab Al-Fatih education system with the formal education system in Indonesia. This research uses literature review and field research qualitative methods. We obtained the data from the head of Kuttab Al-Fatih Semarang, vice curriculum, faith coordinator, al-Qur’an coordinator, as well as the guardians of learners and the learners. The result of this research is the relevance of education system in Kuttab Al-Fatih Semarang about education system in Indonesia. Kuttab Al-Fatih Semarang emphasizes character building through a curriculum designed in such a way and combines thematic learning models in modules.

Keywords: Islamic education system, implementation of curriculum, Kuttab Al-Fatih semarang, formal education system in Indonesia.

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Authors: D. Koren, V. Kilar

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The modern energy-efficient houses are often founded on a thermal insulation (TI) layer placed under the building’s RC foundation slab.The purpose of the paper is to identify the potential problems of the buildings founded on TI layer from the seismic point of view. The two main goals of the study were to assess the seismic behavior of such buildings, and to search for the critical structural parameters affecting the response of the superstructure as well as of the extruded polystyrene (XPS) layer. As a test building a multi-storeyed RC frame structure with and without the XPS layer under the foundation slab has been investigated utilizing nonlinear dynamic (time-history) and static (pushover) analyses. The structural response has been investigated with reference to the following performance parameters: i) Building’s lateral roof displacements, ii) Edge compressive and shear strains of the XPS, iii) Horizontal accelerations of the superstructure, iv) Plastic hinge patterns of the superstructure, v) Part of the foundation in compression, and vi) Deformations of the underlying soil and vertical displacements of the foundation slab (i.e. identifying the potential uplift). The results have shown that in the case of higher and stiff structures lying on firm soil the use of XPS under the foundation slab might induce amplified structural peak responses compared to the building models without XPS under the foundation slab. The analysis has revealed that the superstructure as well as the XPS response is substantially affected by the stiffness of the foundation slab.

Keywords: Extruded polystyrene (XPS), foundation on thermal insulation, energy-efficient buildings, nonlinear seismic analysis, seismic response, soil–structure interaction.

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