Search results for: earthquake prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1287

Search results for: earthquake prediction

927 Review and Comparison of Associative Classification Data Mining Approaches

Authors: Suzan Wedyan

Abstract:

Associative classification (AC) is a data mining approach that combines association rule and classification to build classification models (classifiers). AC has attracted a significant attention from several researchers mainly because it derives accurate classifiers that contain simple yet effective rules. In the last decade, a number of associative classification algorithms have been proposed such as Classification based Association (CBA), Classification based on Multiple Association Rules (CMAR), Class based Associative Classification (CACA), and Classification based on Predicted Association Rule (CPAR). This paper surveys major AC algorithms and compares the steps and methods performed in each algorithm including: rule learning, rule sorting, rule pruning, classifier building, and class prediction.

Keywords: Associative Classification, Classification, Data Mining, Learning, Rule Ranking, Rule Pruning, Prediction.

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926 Selecting Negative Examples for Protein-Protein Interaction

Authors: Mohammad Shoyaib, M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud, Oksam Chae

Abstract:

Proteomics is one of the largest areas of research for bioinformatics and medical science. An ambitious goal of proteomics is to elucidate the structure, interactions and functions of all proteins within cells and organisms. Predicting Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) is one of the crucial and decisive problems in current research. Genomic data offer a great opportunity and at the same time a lot of challenges for the identification of these interactions. Many methods have already been proposed in this regard. In case of in-silico identification, most of the methods require both positive and negative examples of protein interaction and the perfection of these examples are very much crucial for the final prediction accuracy. Positive examples are relatively easy to obtain from well known databases. But the generation of negative examples is not a trivial task. Current PPI identification methods generate negative examples based on some assumptions, which are likely to affect their prediction accuracy. Hence, if more reliable negative examples are used, the PPI prediction methods may achieve even more accuracy. Focusing on this issue, a graph based negative example generation method is proposed, which is simple and more accurate than the existing approaches. An interaction graph of the protein sequences is created. The basic assumption is that the longer the shortest path between two protein-sequences in the interaction graph, the less is the possibility of their interaction. A well established PPI detection algorithm is employed with our negative examples and in most cases it increases the accuracy more than 10% in comparison with the negative pair selection method in that paper.

Keywords: Interaction graph, Negative training data, Protein-Protein interaction, Support vector machine.

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925 Learning to Recommend with Negative Ratings Based on Factorization Machine

Authors: Caihong Sun, Xizi Zhang

Abstract:

Rating prediction is an important problem for recommender systems. The task is to predict the rating for an item that a user would give. Most of the existing algorithms for the task ignore the effect of negative ratings rated by users on items, but the negative ratings have a significant impact on users’ purchasing decisions in practice. In this paper, we present a rating prediction algorithm based on factorization machines that consider the effect of negative ratings inspired by Loss Aversion theory. The aim of this paper is to develop a concave and a convex negative disgust function to evaluate the negative ratings respectively. Experiments are conducted on MovieLens dataset. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods by comparing with other four the state-of-the-art approaches. The negative ratings showed much importance in the accuracy of ratings predictions.

Keywords: Factorization machines, feature engineering, negative ratings, recommendation systems.

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924 Prediction of Cutting Tool Life in Drilling of Reinforced Aluminum Alloy Composite Using a Fuzzy Method

Authors: Mohammed T. Hayajneh

Abstract:

Machining of Metal Matrix Composites (MMCs) is very significant process and has been a main problem that draws many researchers to investigate the characteristics of MMCs during different machining process. The poor machining properties of hard particles reinforced MMCs make drilling process a rather interesting task. Unlike drilling of conventional materials, many problems can be seriously encountered during drilling of MMCs, such as tool wear and cutting forces. Cutting tool wear is a very significant concern in industries. Cutting tool wear not only influences the quality of the drilled hole, but also affects the cutting tool life. Prediction the cutting tool life during drilling is essential for optimizing the cutting conditions. However, the relationship between tool life and cutting conditions, tool geometrical factors and workpiece material properties has not yet been established by any machining theory. In this research work, fuzzy subtractive clustering system has been used to model the cutting tool life in drilling of Al2O3 particle reinforced aluminum alloy composite to investigate of the effect of cutting conditions on cutting tool life. This investigation can help in controlling and optimizing of cutting conditions when the process parameters are adjusted. The built model for prediction the tool life is identified by using drill diameter, cutting speed, and cutting feed rate as input data. The validity of the model was confirmed by the examinations under various cutting conditions. Experimental results have shown the efficiency of the model to predict cutting tool life.

Keywords: Composite, fuzzy, tool life, wear.

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923 A New History Based Method to Handle the Recurring Concept Shifts in Data Streams

Authors: Hossein Morshedlou, Ahmad Abdollahzade Barforoush

Abstract:

Recent developments in storage technology and networking architectures have made it possible for broad areas of applications to rely on data streams for quick response and accurate decision making. Data streams are generated from events of real world so existence of associations, which are among the occurrence of these events in real world, among concepts of data streams is logical. Extraction of these hidden associations can be useful for prediction of subsequent concepts in concept shifting data streams. In this paper we present a new method for learning association among concepts of data stream and prediction of what the next concept will be. Knowing the next concept, an informed update of data model will be possible. The results of conducted experiments show that the proposed method is proper for classification of concept shifting data streams.

Keywords: Data Stream, Classification, Concept Shift, History.

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922 An Investigation into the Application of Artificial Neural Networks to the Prediction of Injuries in Sport

Authors: J. McCullagh, T. Whitfort

Abstract:

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been used successfully in many scientific, industrial and business domains as a method for extracting knowledge from vast amounts of data. However the use of ANN techniques in the sporting domain has been limited. In professional sport, data is stored on many aspects of teams, games, training and players. Sporting organisations have begun to realise that there is a wealth of untapped knowledge contained in the data and there is great interest in techniques to utilise this data. This study will use player data from the elite Australian Football League (AFL) competition to train and test ANNs with the aim to predict the onset of injuries. The results demonstrate that an accuracy of 82.9% was achieved by the ANNs’ predictions across all examples with 94.5% of all injuries correctly predicted. These initial findings suggest that ANNs may have the potential to assist sporting clubs in the prediction of injuries.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, data, injuries, sport

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921 Grid-HPA: Predicting Resource Requirements of a Job in the Grid Computing Environment

Authors: M. Bohlouli, M. Analoui

Abstract:

For complete support of Quality of Service, it is better that environment itself predicts resource requirements of a job by using special methods in the Grid computing. The exact and correct prediction causes exact matching of required resources with available resources. After the execution of each job, the used resources will be saved in the active database named "History". At first some of the attributes will be exploit from the main job and according to a defined similarity algorithm the most similar executed job will be exploited from "History" using statistic terms such as linear regression or average, resource requirements will be predicted. The new idea in this research is based on active database and centralized history maintenance. Implementation and testing of the proposed architecture results in accuracy percentage of 96.68% to predict CPU usage of jobs and 91.29% of memory usage and 89.80% of the band width usage.

Keywords: Active Database, Grid Computing, ResourceRequirement Prediction, Scheduling,

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920 Feature Selection Approaches with Missing Values Handling for Data Mining - A Case Study of Heart Failure Dataset

Authors: N.Poolsawad, C.Kambhampati, J. G. F. Cleland

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigated the characteristic of a clinical dataseton the feature selection and classification measurements which deal with missing values problem.And also posed the appropriated techniques to achieve the aim of the activity; in this research aims to find features that have high effect to mortality and mortality time frame. We quantify the complexity of a clinical dataset. According to the complexity of the dataset, we proposed the data mining processto cope their complexity; missing values, high dimensionality, and the prediction problem by using the methods of missing value replacement, feature selection, and classification.The experimental results will extend to develop the prediction model for cardiology.

Keywords: feature selection, missing values, classification, clinical dataset, heart failure.

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919 The Role of User Participation on Social Sustainability: A Case Study on Four Residential Areas

Authors: Hasan Taştan, Ayşen Ciravoğlu

Abstract:

The rapid growth of the human population and the environmental degradation associated with increased consumption of resources raises concerns on sustainability. Social sustainability constitutes one of the three dimensions of sustainability together with environmental and economic dimensions. Even though there is not an agreement on what social sustainability consists of, it is a well known fact that it necessitates user participation. The fore, this study aims to observe and analyze the role of user participation on social sustainability. In this paper, the links between user participation and indicators of social sustainability have been searched. In order to achieve this, first of all a literature review on social sustainability has been done; accordingly, the information obtained from researches has been used in the evaluation of the projects conducted in the developing countries considering user participation. These examples are taken as role models with pros and cons for the development of the checklist for the evaluation of the case studies. Furthermore, a case study over the post earthquake residential settlements in Turkey have been conducted. The case study projects are selected considering different building scales (differing number of residential units), scale of the problem (post-earthquake settlements, rehabilitation of shanty dwellings) and the variety of users (differing socio-economic dimensions). Decisionmaking, design, building and usage processes of the selected projects and actors of these processes have been investigated in the context of social sustainability. The cases include: New Gourna Village by Hassan Fathy, Quinta Monroy dwelling units conducted in Chile by Alejandro Aravena and Beyköy and Beriköy projects in Turkey aiming to solve the problem of housing which have appeared after the earthquake happened in 1999 have been investigated. Results of the study possible links between social sustainability indicators and user participation and links between user participation and the peculiarities of place. Results are compared and discussed in order to find possible solutions to form social sustainability through user participation. Results show that social sustainability issues depend on communities' characteristics, socio-economic conditions and user profile but user participation has positive effects on some social sustainability indicators like user satisfaction, a sense of belonging and social stability.

Keywords: Housing projects, Residential areas, Social sustainability, User participation.

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918 School Emergency Drills Evaluation through E-PreS Monitoring System

Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, V. Avramea

Abstract:

Planning for natural disasters and emergencies is something every school or educational institution must consider, regardless of its size or location. Preparedness is the key to save lives if a disaster strikes. School disaster management mirrors individual and family disaster prevention, and wider community disaster prevention efforts. This paper presents the usage of E-PreS System as a helpful, managerial tool during the school earthquake drill, in order to support schools in developing effective disaster and emergency plans specific to their local needs. The project comes up with a holistic methodology using real-time evaluation involving different categories of actors, districts, steps and metrics. The main outcomes of E-PreS project are the development of E-PreS web platform that host the needed data of school emergency planning; the development of E-PreS System; the implementation of disaster drills using E-PreS System in educational premises and local schools; and the evaluation of E-PreS System. Taking into consideration that every disaster drill aims to test and valid school plan and procedures; clarify and train personnel in roles and responsibilities; improve interagency coordination; identify gaps in resources; improve individual performance; and identify opportunities for improvement, E-PreS Project was submitted and approved by the European Commission (EC).

Keywords: Disaster drills, earthquake preparedness, E-PreS system, school emergency plans.

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917 Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Water Turbidity

Authors: Chia-Ling Chang, Chung-Sheng Liao

Abstract:

The present study focuses on the discussion over the parameter of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Sensitivity analysis is applied to assess the effect of the parameters of ANN on the prediction of turbidity of raw water in the water treatment plant. The result shows that transfer function of hidden layer is a critical parameter of ANN. When the transfer function changes, the reliability of prediction of water turbidity is greatly different. Moreover, the estimated water turbidity is less sensitive to training times and learning velocity than the number of neurons in the hidden layer. Therefore, it is important to select an appropriate transfer function and suitable number of neurons in the hidden layer in the process of parameter training and validation.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), sensitivity analysis, turbidity.

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916 Performance Analysis of Artificial Neural Network with Decision Tree in Prediction of Diabetes Mellitus

Authors: J. K. Alhassan, B. Attah, S. Misra

Abstract:

Human beings have the ability to make logical decisions. Although human decision - making is often optimal, it is insufficient when huge amount of data is to be classified. Medical dataset is a vital ingredient used in predicting patient’s health condition. In other to have the best prediction, there calls for most suitable machine learning algorithms. This work compared the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Decision Tree Algorithms (DTA) as regards to some performance metrics using diabetes data. WEKA software was used for the implementation of the algorithms. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) were the two algorithms used for ANN, while RegTree and LADTree algorithms were the DTA models used. From the results obtained, DTA performed better than ANN. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of MLP is 0.3913 that of RBF is 0.3625, that of RepTree is 0.3174 and that of LADTree is 0.3206 respectively.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, classification, decision tree, diabetes mellitus.

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915 Combining the Deep Neural Network with the K-Means for Traffic Accident Prediction

Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

Abstract:

Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to prevent deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network. 

Keywords: Accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, K-mean, road safety.

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914 Prediction of Bath Temperature Using Neural Networks

Authors: H. Meradi, S. Bouhouche, M. Lahreche

Abstract:

In this work, we consider an application of neural networks in LD converter. Application of this approach assumes a reliable prediction of steel temperature and reduces a reblow ratio in steel work. It has been applied a conventional model to charge calculation, the obtained results by this technique are not always good, this is due to the process complexity. Difficulties are mainly generated by the noisy measurement and the process non linearities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have become a powerful tool for these complex applications. It is used a backpropagation algorithm to learn the neural nets. (ANNs) is used to predict the steel bath temperature in oxygen converter process for the end condition. This model has 11 inputs process variables and one output. The model was tested in steel work, the obtained results by neural approach are better than the conventional model.

Keywords: LD converter, bath temperature, neural networks.

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913 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast using MM5 and WRF models for Kelantan River Basin

Authors: Wardah, T., Kamil, A.A., Sahol Hamid, A.B., Maisarah, W.W.I

Abstract:

Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF. In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined. The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.

Keywords: MM5, Numerical weather prediction (NWP), quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), WRF

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912 Comparing Machine Learning Estimation of Fuel Consumption of Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

Abstract:

Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.

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911 Tool Wear and Surface Roughness Prediction using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in Turning Steel under Minimum Quantity Lubrication (MQL)

Authors: S. M. Ali, N. R. Dhar

Abstract:

Tool wear and surface roughness prediction plays a significant role in machining industry for proper planning and control of machining parameters and optimization of cutting conditions. This paper deals with developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model as a function of cutting parameters in turning steel under minimum quantity lubrication (MQL). A feed-forward backpropagation network with twenty five hidden neurons has been selected as the optimum network. The co-efficient of determination (R2) between model predictions and experimental values are 0.9915, 0.9906, 0.9761 and 0.9627 in terms of VB, VM, VS and Ra respectively. The results imply that the model can be used easily to forecast tool wear and surface roughness in response to cutting parameters.

Keywords: ANN, MQL, Surface Roughness, Tool Wear.

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910 Validation of the WAsP Model for a Terrain Surrounded by Mountainous Region

Authors: Mohammadamin Zanganeh, Vahid Khalajzadeh

Abstract:

The problems associated with wind predictions of WAsP model in complex terrain are already the target of several studies in the last decade. In this paper, the influence of surrounding orography on accuracy of wind data analysis of a train is investigated. For the case study, a site with complex surrounding orography is considered. This site is located in Manjil, one of the windiest cities of Iran. For having precise evaluation of wind regime in the site, one-year wind data measurements from two metrological masts are used. To validate the obtained results from WAsP, the cross prediction between each mast is performed. The analysis reveals that WAsP model can estimate the wind speed behavior accurately. In addition, results show that this software can be used for predicting the wind regime in flat sites with complex surrounding orography.

Keywords: Complex terrain, Meteorological mast, WAsPmodel, Wind prediction

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909 Prediction Heating Values of Lignocellulosics from Biomass Characteristics

Authors: Kaltima Phichai, Pornchanoke Pragrobpondee, Thaweesak Khumpart, Samorn Hirunpraditkoon

Abstract:

The paper provides biomasses characteristics by proximate analysis (volatile matter, fixed carbon and ash) and ultimate analysis (carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen and oxygen) for the prediction of the heating value equations. The heating value estimation of various biomasses can be used as an energy evaluation. Thirteen types of biomass were studied. Proximate analysis was investigated by mass loss method and infrared moisture analyzer. Ultimate analysis was analyzed by CHNO analyzer. The heating values varied from 15 to 22.4MJ kg-1. Correlations of the calculated heating value with proximate and ultimate analyses were undertaken using multiple regression analysis and summarized into three and two equations, respectively. Correlations based on proximate analysis illustrated that deviation of calculated heating values from experimental heating values was higher than the correlations based on ultimate analysis.

Keywords: Heating value equation, Proximate analysis, Ultimate analysis.

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908 Allometric Models for Biomass Estimation in Savanna Woodland Area, Niger State, Nigeria

Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

Abstract:

The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. F-test values for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: Allometriy, biomass, carbon stock, model, regression equation, woodland, inventory.

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907 Application Problems of Anchor Dowels in Reinforced Concrete Shear Wall and Frame Connections

Authors: Musa H. Arslan

Abstract:

Strengthening of the existing seismically deficient reinforced concrete (RC) buildings is an important issue in earthquake prone regions. Addition of RC shear wall as infill or external walls into the structural system has been a commonly preferred strengthening technique since the Big Erzincan Earthquake occurred in Turkey, 1992. The newly added rigid infill walls act primarily as shear walls and relieve the non-ductile existing frames from being subjected to large shear demands providing that new RC inner or external walls are adequately anchored to the existing weak RC frame. The performance of the RC shear walls-RC weak frame connections by steel anchor dowels depends on some parameters such as compressive strength of the existing RC frame concrete, diameter and embedment length of anchored rebar, type of rebar, yielding stress of bar, properties of used chemicals, position of the anchor bars in RC. In this study, application problems of the steel anchor dowels have been checked with some field studies such as tensile test. Two different RC buildings which will be strengthened were selected, and before strengthening, some tests have been performed in the existing RC buildings. According to the field observation and experimental studies, if the concrete compressive strength is lower than 10 MPa, the performance of the anchors is reduced by 70%.

Keywords: Anchor dowel, concrete, damage, reinforced concrete, shear wall, frame.

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906 Training During Emergency Response to Build Resiliency in Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene

Authors: Lee Boudreau, Ash Kumar Khaitu, Laura A. S. MacDonald

Abstract:

In April 2015, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal, killing, injuring, and displacing thousands of people. The earthquake also damaged water and sanitation service networks, leading to a high risk of diarrheal disease and the associated negative health impacts. In response to the disaster, the Environment and Public Health Organization (ENPHO), a Kathmandu-based non-governmental organization, worked with the Centre for Affordable Water and Sanitation Technology (CAWST), a Canadian education, training and consulting organization, to develop two training programs to educate volunteers on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) needs. The first training program was intended for acute response, with the second focusing on longer term recovery. A key focus was to equip the volunteers with the knowledge and skills to formulate useful WASH advice in the unanticipated circumstances they would encounter when working in affected areas. Within the first two weeks of the disaster, a two-day acute response training was developed, which focused on enabling volunteers to educate those affected by the disaster about local WASH issues, their link to health, and their increased importance immediately following emergency situations. Between March and October 2015, a total of 19 training events took place, with over 470 volunteers trained. The trained volunteers distributed hygiene kits and liquid chlorine for household water treatment. They also facilitated health messaging and WASH awareness activities in affected communities. A three-day recovery phase training was also developed and has been delivered to volunteers in Nepal since October 2015. This training focused on WASH issues during the recovery and reconstruction phases. The interventions and recommendations in the recovery phase training focus on long-term WASH solutions, and so form a link between emergency relief strategies and long-term development goals. ENPHO has trained 226 volunteers during the recovery phase, with training ongoing as of April 2016. In the aftermath of the earthquake, ENPHO found that its existing pool of volunteers were more than willing to help those in their communities who were more in need. By training these and new volunteers, ENPHO was able to reach many more communities in the immediate aftermath of the disaster; together they reached 11 of the 14 earthquake-affected districts. The collaboration between ENPHO and CAWST in developing the training materials was a highly collaborative and iterative process, which enabled the training materials to be developed within a short response time. By training volunteers on basic WASH topics during both the immediate response and the recovery phase, ENPHO and CAWST have been able to link immediate emergency relief to long-term developmental goals. While the recovery phase training continues in Nepal, CAWST is planning to decontextualize the training used in both phases so that it can be applied to other emergency situations in the future. The training materials will become part of the open content materials available on CAWST’s WASH Resources website.

Keywords: Water and sanitation, emergency response, education and training, building resilience.

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905 Comparison of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of System Marginal Price of Greek Energy Market

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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904 Performance Prediction Methodology of Slow Aging Assets

Authors: M. Ben Slimene, M.-S. Ouali

Abstract:

Asset management of urban infrastructures faces a multitude of challenges that need to be overcome to obtain a reliable measurement of performances. Predicting the performance of slowly aging systems is one of those challenges, which helps the asset manager to investigate specific failure modes and to undertake the appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to avoid catastrophic failures as well as to optimize the maintenance costs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the deterioration of slowly degrading assets based on an operating history. It consists of extracting degradation profiles by grouping together assets that exhibit similar degradation sequences using an unsupervised classification technique derived from artificial intelligence. The obtained clusters are used to build the performance prediction models. This methodology is applied to a sample of a stormwater drainage culvert dataset.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, clustering, culvert, regression model, slow degradation.

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903 Improving Protein-Protein Interaction Prediction by Using Encoding Strategies and Random Indices

Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

Abstract:

A New features are extracted and compared to improve the prediction of protein-protein interactions. The basic idea is to select and use the best set of features from the Tensor matrices that are produced by the frequency vectors of the protein sequences. Three set of features are compared, the first set is based on the indices that are the most common in the interacting proteins, the second set is based on the indices that tend to be common in the interacting and non-interacting proteins, and the third set is constructed by using random indices. Moreover, three encoding strategies are compared; that are based on the amino asides polarity, structure, and chemical properties. The experimental results indicate that the highest accuracy can be obtained by using random indices with chemical properties encoding strategy and support vector machine.

Keywords: protein-protein interactions, random indices, encoding strategies, support vector machine.

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902 Prediction of Oxygen Transfer and Gas Hold-Up in Pneumatic Bioreactors Containing Viscous Newtonian Fluids

Authors: Caroline E. Mendes, Alberto C. Badino

Abstract:

Pneumatic reactors have been widely employed in various sectors of the chemical industry, especially where are required high heat and mass transfer rates. This study aimed to obtain correlations that allow the prediction of gas hold-up (Ԑ) and volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (kLa), and compare these values, for three models of pneumatic reactors on two scales utilizing Newtonian fluids. Values of kLa ​​were obtained using the dynamic pressure-step method, while e was used for a new proposed measure. Comparing the three models of reactors studied, it was observed that the mass transfer was superior to draft-tube airlift, reaching e of 0.173 and kLa of 0.00904s-1. All correlations showed good fit to the experimental data (R2≥94%), and comparisons with correlations from the literature demonstrate the need for further similar studies due to shortage of data available, mainly for airlift reactors and high viscosity fluids.

Keywords: Bubble column, internal loop airlift, gas hold-up, kLa.

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901 Effects of Sea Water Level Fluctuations on Seismic Response of Jacket Type Offshore Platforms

Authors: M. Rad, M. Dolatshahi Pirooz, M. Esmayili

Abstract:

To understand the seismic behavior of the offshore structures, the dynamic interaction of the water-structure-soil should be assessed. In this regard the role of the water dynamic properties in magnifying or reducing of the effects of earthquake induced motions on offshore structures haven't been investigated in precise manner in available literature. In this paper the sea water level fluctuations effects on the seismic behavior of a sample of offshore structures has been investigated by emphasizing on the water-structure interaction phenomenon. For this purpose a two dimensional finite element model of offshore structures as well as surrounded water has been developed using ANSYS software. The effect of soil interaction with embedded pile foundation has been imposed by using a series of nonlinear springs in horizontal and vertical directions in soil-piles contact points. In the model, the earthquake induced motions have been applied on springs and consequently the motions propagated upward to the structure and surrounded water. As a result of numerical study, the horizontal deformations of the offshore deck as well as internal force and buckling coefficient in structural elements have been recorded and controlled with and without water presence. In part of study a parametric study has been accomplished on sea water level fluctuations and effect of this parameter has been studied on the aforementioned numerical results.

Keywords: Fluid-Structure Interaction, Jacket, Sea Water Level, Seismic Loading.

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900 Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Elliptical Basis Function Network and Markov Chain

Authors: Yi Yu, Lin Ma, Yong Sun, Yuantong Gu

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

Keywords: Elliptical Basis Function Network, Markov Chain, Missing Covariates, Remaining Useful Life

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899 A K-Means Based Clustering Approach for Finding Faulty Modules in Open Source Software Systems

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Jagdeep Singh, Vikas Gupta, Mandeep Kaur, Sonia Manhas, Ramandeep Sidhu

Abstract:

Prediction of fault-prone modules provides one way to support software quality engineering. Clustering is used to determine the intrinsic grouping in a set of unlabeled data. Among various clustering techniques available in literature K-Means clustering approach is most widely being used. This paper introduces K-Means based Clustering approach for software finding the fault proneness of the Object-Oriented systems. The contribution of this paper is that it has used Metric values of JEdit open source software for generation of the rules for the categorization of software modules in the categories of Faulty and non faulty modules and thereafter empirically validation is performed. The results are measured in terms of accuracy of prediction, probability of Detection and Probability of False Alarms.

Keywords: K-Means, Software Fault, Classification, ObjectOriented Metrics.

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898 Probabilistic Crash Prediction and Prevention of Vehicle Crash

Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

Abstract:

Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include the cost of infrastructure, personnel, and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion, and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. This research aims to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using Machine Learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons, like overspeeding, etc., in the United States. These factors range from meteorological elements such as weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity, to human-made structures, like road structure components such as Bumps, Roundabouts, No Exit, Turning Loops, Give Away, etc. The probabilities are categorized into ten distinct classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes in all states collected by the US government. The probability of the crash was determined by employing Multinomial Expected Value, and a classification label was assigned accordingly. We applied three classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-depth insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: Road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning.

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