Search results for: Numerical probability modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4575

Search results for: Numerical probability modeling

1125 Application of GM (1, 1) Model Group Based on Recursive Solution in China's Energy Demand Forecasting

Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

Abstract:

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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1124 SimplexIS: Evaluating the Impact of e-Gov Simplification Measures in the Information System Architecure

Authors: Bruno Félix, André Vasconcelos, José Tribolet

Abstract:

Nowadays increasingly the population makes use of Information Technology (IT). As such, in recent year the Portuguese government increased its focus on using the IT for improving people-s life and began to develop a set of measures to enable the modernization of the Public Administration, and so reducing the gap between Public Administration and citizens.Thus the Portuguese Government launched the Simplex Program. However these SIMPLEX eGov measures, which have been implemented over the years, present a serious challenge: how to forecast its impact on existing Information Systems Architecture (ISA). Thus, this research is focus in addressing the problem of automating the evaluation of the actual impact of implementation an eGovSimplification and Modernization measures in the Information Systems Architecture. To realize the evaluation we proposes a Framework, which is supported by some key concepts as: Quality Factors, ISA modeling, Multicriteria Approach, Polarity Profile and Quality Metrics

Keywords: Information System Architecture, Evaluation, eGov Simplification measure, Multicriteria Evaluation

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1123 Speed Optimization Model for Reducing Fuel Consumption Based on Shipping Log Data

Authors: Ayudhia P. Gusti, Semin

Abstract:

It is known that total operating cost of a vessel is dominated by the cost of fuel consumption. How to reduce the fuel cost of ship so that the operational costs of fuel can be minimized is the question that arises. As the basis of these kinds of problem, sailing speed determination is an important factor to be considered by a shipping company. Optimal speed determination will give a significant influence on the route and berth schedule of ships, which also affect vessel operating costs. The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues about ship speed optimization. Sailing speed, displacement, sailing time, and specific fuel consumption were obtained from shipping log data to be further analyzed for modeling the speed optimization. The presented speed optimization model is expected to affect the fuel consumption and to reduce the cost of fuel consumption.

Keywords: Maritime transportation, reducing fuel, shipping log data, speed optimization.

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1122 Numerical Study of Vortex Formation inside a Stirred Tank

Authors: Divya Rajavathsavai, Akhilesh Khapre, Basudeb Munshi

Abstract:

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of stirred tank with the air-water interface are carried out in the presence of different types of the impeller and with or without baffles. A multiple reference frame (MRF) approach with the volume of fluid (VOF) method is used to capture the air-water interface. The RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) equations with k-ε turbulence model are solved to predict the flow behavior of water and air phase which are treated as a different phases. The predicted results have shown that the VOF method is able to capture the interface in the unbaffled tank. While, the VOF method is showing an unfeasible results in the baffled tank with high rotational impeller speed. For continuous stirred tank, the air-water interface is disturbed by the inflow and the level of water is also increased with time.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, stirred tank, airwater interface, multiple reference frame, volume of fluid, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations.

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1121 Face Recognition with PCA and KPCA using Elman Neural Network and SVM

Authors: Hossein Esbati, Jalil Shirazi

Abstract:

In this paper, in order to categorize ORL database face pictures, principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) methods by using Elman neural network and Support Vector Machine (SVM) categorization methods are used. Elman network as a recurrent neural network is proposed for modeling storage systems and also it is used for reviewing the effect of using PCA numbers on system categorization precision rate and database pictures categorization time. Categorization stages are conducted with various components numbers and the obtained results of both Elman neural network categorization and support vector machine are compared. In optimum manner 97.41% recognition accuracy is obtained.

Keywords: Face recognition, Principal Component Analysis, Kernel Principal Component Analysis, Neural network, Support Vector Machine.

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1120 An MADM Framework toward Hierarchical Production Planning in Hybrid MTS/MTO Environments

Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new decision making structure to determine the appropriate product delivery strategy for different products in a manufacturing system among make-to-stock, make-toorder, and hybrid strategy. Given product delivery strategies for all products in the manufacturing system, the position of the Order Penetrating Point (OPP) can be located regarding the delivery strategies among which location of OPP in hybrid strategy is a cumbersome task. In this regard, we employ analytic network process, because there are varieties of interrelated driving factors involved in choosing the right location. Moreover, the proposed structure is augmented with fuzzy sets theory in order to cope with the uncertainty of judgments. Finally, applicability of the proposed structure is proven in practice through a real industrial case company. The numerical results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed decision making structure in order partitioning and OPP location.

Keywords: Hybrid make-to-stock/make-to-order, Multi-attribute decision making, Order partitioning, Order penetration point.

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1119 Simulation of Thin Film Relaxation by Buried Misfit Networks

Authors: A. Derardja

Abstract:

The present work is motivated by the idea that the layer deformation in anisotropic elasticity can be estimated from the theory of interfacial dislocations. In effect, this work which is an extension of a previous approach given by one of the authors determines the anisotropic displacement fields and the critical thickness due to a complex biperiodic network of MDs lying just below the free surface in view of the arrangement of dislocations. The elastic fields of such arrangements observed along interfaces play a crucial part in the improvement of the physical properties of epitaxial systems. New results are proposed in anisotropic elasticity for hexagonal networks of MDs which contain intrinsic and extrinsic stacking faults. We developed, using a previous approach based on the relative interfacial displacement and a Fourier series formulation of the displacement fields, the expressions of elastic fields when there is a possible dissociation of MDs. The numerical investigations in the case of the observed system Si/(111)Si with low twist angles show clearly the effect of the anisotropy and thickness when the misfit networks are dissociated.

Keywords: Angular misfit, dislocation networks, plane interfaces, stacking faults.

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1118 Fuzzy Sliding Mode Control of an MR Mount for Vibration Attenuation

Authors: Jinsiang Shaw, Ray Pan, Yin-Chieh Chang

Abstract:

In this paper, an magnetorheological (MR) mount with fuzzy sliding mode controller (FSMC) is studied for vibration suppression when the system is subject to base excitations. In recent years, magnetorheological fluids are becoming a popular material in the field of the semi-active control. However, the dynamic equation of an MR mount is highly nonlinear and it is difficult to identify. FSMC provides a simple method to achieve vibration attenuation of the nonlinear system with uncertain disturbances. This method is capable of handling the chattering problem of sliding mode control effectively and the fuzzy control rules are obtained by using the Lyapunov stability theory. The numerical simulations using one-dimension and two-dimension FSMC show effectiveness of the proposed controller for vibration suppression. Further, the well-known skyhook control scheme and an adaptive sliding mode controller are also included in the simulation for comparison with the proposed FSMC.

Keywords: adaptive sliding mode controller, fuzzy sliding modecontroller, magnetorheological mount, skyhook control.

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1117 Concept for a Multidisciplinary Design Process–An Application on High Lift Systems

Authors: P. Zamov, H. Spangenberg

Abstract:

Presents a concept for a multidisciplinary process supporting effective task transitions between different technical domains during the architectural design stage. A system configuration challenge is the multifunctional driven increased solution space. As a consequence, more iteration is needed to find a global optimum, i.e. a compromise between involved disciplines without negative impact on development time. Since state of the art standards like ISO 15288 and VDI 2206 do not provide a detailed methodology on multidisciplinary design process, higher uncertainties regarding final specifications arise. This leads to the need of more detailed and standardized concepts or processes which could mitigate risks. The performed work is based on analysis of multidisciplinary interaction, of modeling and simulation techniques. To demonstrate and prove the applicability of the presented concept, it is applied to the design of aircraft high lift systems, in the context of the engineering disciplines kinematics, actuation, monitoring, installation and structure design.

Keywords: Systems engineering, multidisciplinary, architectural design, high lift system.

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1116 Development of a Project Selection Method on Information System Using ANP and Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Ingu Kim, Shangmun Shin, Yongsun Choi, Nguyen Manh Thang, Edwin R. Ramos, Won-Joo Hwang

Abstract:

Project selection problems on management information system (MIS) are often considered a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) for a solving method. These problems contain two aspects, such as interdependencies among criteria and candidate projects and qualitative and quantitative factors of projects. However, most existing methods reported in literature consider these aspects separately even though these two aspects are simultaneously incorporated. For this reason, we proposed a hybrid method using analytic network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in order to represent both aspects. We then propose a goal programming model to conduct an optimization for the project selection problems interpreted by a hybrid concept. Finally, a numerical example is conducted as verification purposes.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process (ANP), Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Fuzzy Logic, Information System Project Selection, Goal Programming.

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1115 Study of Bored Pile Retaining Wall Using Physical Modeling

Authors: Amin Eslami, Jafar Bolouri Bazaz

Abstract:

Excavation and retaining walls are of challenging issues in civil engineering. In this study, the behavior of one important type of supporting systems called Contiguous Bored Pile (CBP) retaining wall is investigated using a physical model. Besides, a comparison is made between two modes of free end piles (soft bed) and fixed end piles (stiff bed). Also a back calculation of effective length (the real free length of pile) is done by measuring lateral deflection of piles in different stages of excavation in both aforementioned cases. Based on observed results, for the fixed end mode, the effective length to free length ratio (Leff/L0) is equal to unity in initial stages of excavation and less than 1 in its final stages in a decreasing manner. While this ratio for free end mode, remains constant during all stages of excavation and is always less than unity.

Keywords: Contiguous Bored Pile Wall, Effective Length, Fixed End, Free End, Free Length.

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1114 Modeling Football Penalty Shootouts: How Improving Individual Performance Affects Team Performance and the Fairness of the ABAB Sequence

Authors: Pablo Enrique Sartor Del Giudice

Abstract:

Penalty shootouts often decide the outcome of important soccer matches. Although usually referred to as ”lotteries”, there is evidence that some national teams and clubs consistently perform better than others. The outcomes are therefore not explained just by mere luck, and therefore there are ways to improve the average performance of players, naturally at the expense of some sort of effort. In this article we study the payoff of player performance improvements in terms of the performance of the team as a whole. To do so we develop an analytical model with static individual performances, as well as Monte Carlo models that take into account the known influence of partial score and round number on individual performances. We find that within a range of usual values, the team performance improves above 70% faster than individual performances do. Using these models, we also estimate that the new ABBA penalty shootout ordering under test reduces almost all the known bias in favor of the first-shooting team under the current ABAB system.

Keywords: Football, penalty shootouts, Montecarlo simulation, ABBA.

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1113 Consensus of Multi-Agent Systems under the Special Consensus Protocols

Authors: Konghe Xie

Abstract:

Two consensus problems are considered in this paper. One is the consensus of linear multi-agent systems with weakly connected directed communication topology. The other is the consensus of nonlinear multi-agent systems with strongly connected directed communication topology. For the first problem, a simplified consensus protocol is designed: Each child agent can only communicate with one of its neighbors. That is, the real communication topology is a directed spanning tree of the original communication topology and without any cycles. Then, the necessary and sufficient condition is put forward to the multi-agent systems can be reached consensus. It is worth noting that the given conditions do not need any eigenvalue of the corresponding Laplacian matrix of the original directed communication network. For the second problem, the feedback gain is designed in the nonlinear consensus protocol. Then, the sufficient condition is proposed such that the systems can be achieved consensus. Besides, the consensus interval is introduced and analyzed to solve the consensus problem. Finally, two numerical simulations are included to verify the theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Consensus, multi-agent systems, directed spanning tree, the Laplacian matrix.

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1112 Numerical Analysis and Sensitivity Study of Non-Premixed Combustion Using LES

Authors: J. Dumrongsak, A. M. Savill

Abstract:

Non-premixed turbulent combustion Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been carried out in a simplified methanefuelled coaxial jet combustor employing Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of LES in modelling non-premixed combustion using a commercial software, FLUENT, and investigate the effects of the grid density and chemistry models employed on the accuracy of the simulation results. A comparison has also been made between LES and Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) predictions. For LES grid sensitivity test, 2.3 and 6.2 million cell grids are employed with the equilibrium model. The chemistry model sensitivity analysis is achieved by comparing the simulation results from the equilibrium chemistry and steady flamelet models. The predictions of the mixture fraction, axial velocity, species mass fraction and temperature by LES are in good agreement with the experimental data. The LES results are similar for the two chemistry models but influenced considerably by the grid resolution in the inner flame and near-wall regions.

Keywords: Coaxial jet, reacting LES, non-premixed combustion, turbulent flow.

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1111 Globally Convergent Edge-preserving Reconstruction with Contour-line Smoothing

Authors: Marc C. Robini, Pierre-Jean Viverge, Yuemin Zhu, Jianhua Luo

Abstract:

The standard approach to image reconstruction is to stabilize the problem by including an edge-preserving roughness penalty in addition to faithfulness to the data. However, this methodology produces noisy object boundaries and creates a staircase effect. The existing attempts to favor the formation of smooth contour lines take the edge field explicitly into account; they either are computationally expensive or produce disappointing results. In this paper, we propose to incorporate the smoothness of the edge field in an implicit way by means of an additional penalty term defined in the wavelet domain. We also derive an efficient half-quadratic algorithm to solve the resulting optimization problem, including the case when the data fidelity term is non-quadratic and the cost function is nonconvex. Numerical experiments show that our technique preserves edge sharpness while smoothing contour lines; it produces visually pleasing reconstructions which are quantitatively better than those obtained without wavelet-domain constraints.

Keywords:

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1110 Effect of Different Diesel Fuels on Formation of the Cavitation Phenomena

Authors: Mohammadreza Nezamirad, Sepideh Amirahmadian, Nasim Sabetpour, Azadeh Yazdi, Amirmasoud Hamedi

Abstract:

Cavitation inside a diesel injector nozzle is investigated numerically in this study. The Reynolds Stress Navier Stokes set of equations (RANS) are utilized to investigate flow behavior inside the nozzle numerically. Moreover, K-ε turbulent model is found to be a better approach comparing to K-ω turbulent model. The Winklhofer rectangular shape nozzle is also simulated in order to verify the current numerical scheme, and with the mass flow rate approach, the current solution is verified. Afterward, a six-hole real size nozzle was simulated and it was found that among the different fuels used in this study with the same condition, diesel fuel provides the largest length of cavitation. Also, it was found that at the same boundary condition, rapeseed methyl ester (RME) fuel leads to the highest value of discharge coefficient and mass flow rate.

Keywords: cavitation, diesel fuel, CFD, real size nozzle, discharge coefficient

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1109 Effects of Thread Dimensions of Functionally Graded Dental Implants on Stress Distribution

Authors: Kaman M. O., Celik N.

Abstract:

In this study, stress distributions on dental implants made of functionally graded biomaterials (FGBM) are investigated numerically. The implant body is considered to be subjected to axial compression loads. Numerical problem is assumed to be 2D, and ANSYS commercial software is used for the analysis. The cross section of the implant thread varies as varying the height (H) and the width (t) of the thread. According to thread dimensions of implant and material properties of FGBM, equivalent stress distribution on the implant is determined and presented with contour plots along with the maximum equivalent stress values. As a result, with increasing material gradient parameter (n), the equivalent stress decreases, but the minimum stress distribution increases. Maximum stress values decrease with decreasing implant radius (r). Maximum von Mises stresses increases with decreasing H when t is constant. On the other hand, the stress values are not affected by variation of t in the case of H = constant.

Keywords: Functionally graded biomaterials, dental implant finite element method.

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1108 Numerical Simulation for the Formability Prediction of the Laser Welded Blanks (TWB)

Authors: Hossein Mamusi, Abolfazl Masoumi, Ramezanali Mahdavinezhad

Abstract:

Tailor-welded Blanks (TWBs) are tailor made for different complex component designs by welding multiple metal sheets with different thicknesses, shapes, coatings or strengths prior to forming. In this study the Hemispherical Die Stretching (HDS) test (out-of-plane stretching) of TWBs were simulated via ABAQUS/Explicit to obtain the Forming Limit Diagrams (FLDs) of Stainless steel (AISI 304) laser welded blanks with different thicknesses. Two criteria were used to detect the start of necking to determine the FLD for TWBs and parent sheet metals. These two criteria are the second derivatives of the major and thickness strains that are given from the strain history of simulation. In the other word, in these criteria necking starts when the second derivative of thickness or major strain reaches its maximum. With having the time of onset necking, one can measure the major and minor strains at the critical area and determine the forming limit curve.

Keywords: TWB, Forming Limit Diagram, Necking criteria, ABAQUS/Explicit

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1107 Lean Impact Analysis Assessment Models: Development of a Lean Measurement Structural Model

Authors: Catherine Maware, Olufemi Adetunji

Abstract:

The paper is aimed at developing a model to measure the impact of Lean manufacturing deployment on organizational performance. The model will help industry practitioners to assess the impact of implementing Lean constructs on organizational performance. It will also harmonize the measurement models of Lean performance with the house of Lean that seems to have become the industry standard. The sheer number of measurement models for impact assessment of Lean implementation makes it difficult for new adopters to select an appropriate assessment model or deployment methodology. A literature review is conducted to classify the Lean performance model. Pareto analysis is used to select the Lean constructs for the development of the model. The model is further formalized through the use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in defining the underlying latent structure of a Lean system. An impact assessment measurement model developed can be used to measure Lean performance and can be adopted by different industries.

Keywords: Impact measurement model, lean bundles, lean manufacturing, organizational performance.

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1106 Effect of Prefabricated Vertical Drain System Properties on Embankment Behavior

Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, Ali Namaei

Abstract:

This study presents the effect of prefabricated vertical drain system properties on embankment behavior by calculating the settlement, lateral displacement and induced excess pore pressure by numerical method. In order to investigate this behavior, three different prefabricated vertical drains have been simulated under an embankment. The finite element software PLAXIS has been carried out for analyzing the displacements and excess pore pressures. The results showed that the consolidation time and induced excess pore pressure are highly depended to the discharge capacity of the prefabricated vertical drain. The increase in the discharge capacity leads to decrease the consolidation process and the induced excess pore pressure. Moreover, it was seen that the vertical drains spacing does not have any significant effect on the consolidation time. However, the increase in the drains spacing would decrease the system stiffness.

Keywords: Vertical drain, prefabricated, consolidation, embankment.

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1105 Performance and Emission Prediction in a Biodiesel Engine Fuelled with Honge Methyl Ester Using RBF Neural Networks

Authors: Shivakumar, G. S. Vijay, P. Srinivas Pai, B. R. Shrinivasa Rao

Abstract:

In the present study, RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tex and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: Radial Basis Function networks, emissions, Performance parameters, Fuzzy c means.

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1104 Sustainability Model for Rural Telecenter Using Business Intelligence Technique

Authors: Razak Rahmat, Azizah Ahmad, Rafidah Razak, Roshidi Din, Azizi Abas

Abstract:

Telecenter is a place where communities can access computers, the Internet, and other digital technologies to enable them to gather information, create, learn, and communicate with others. However, previous studies found that sustainability issues related to economic, political and institutional, social and technology is one of the major problem faced by the telecenter. Based on that problem this research is planning to design a possible solution on rural telecenters sustainability with the support of business intelligence (BI). The empirical study will be conducted through qualitative and quantitative method including interviews and observations with a range of stakeholders including ministry officers, telecenters managers and operators. Result from the data collection will be analyzed using causal modeling approach of SEM SmartPLS for the validity. The expected finding from this research is the Business Intelligent Requirement Model as a guild for sustainability of the rural telecenters.

Keywords: Rural ICT Telecenter (RICTT), Business Intelligence, Sustainability, Requirement Analysis Modal.

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1103 Robust H∞ Filter Design for Uncertain Fuzzy Descriptor Systems: LMI-Based Design

Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

Abstract:

This paper examines the problem of designing a robust H∞ filter for a class of uncertain fuzzy descriptor systems described by a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems to have an H∞ performance are derived. To alleviate the ill-conditioning resulting from the interaction of slow and fast dynamic modes, solutions to the problem are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities which are independent of the singular perturbation ε, when ε is sufficiently small. The proposed approach does not involve the separation of states into slow and fast ones and it can be applied not only to standard, but also to nonstandard uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the design developed in this paper.

Keywords: H∞ control, Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs), Descriptor systems.

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1102 CFD Flow and Heat Transfer Simulation for Empty and Packed Fixed Bed Reactor in Catalytic Cracking of Naphtha

Authors: D. Salari, A. Niaei, P. Chitsaz Yazdi, M. Derakhshani, S. R. Nabavi

Abstract:

This work aims to test the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to fixed bed catalytic cracking reactors. Studies of CFD with a fixed bed design commonly use a regular packing with N=2 to define bed geometry. CFD allows us to obtain a more accurate view of the fluid flow and heat transfer mechanisms present in fixed bed equipment. Naphtha was used as feedstock and the reactor length was 80cm. It is divided in three sections that catalyst bed packed in the middle section of the reactor. The reaction scheme was involved one primary reaction and 24 secondary reactions. Because of high CPU times in these simulations, parallel processing have been used. In this study the coke formation process in fixed bed and empty tube reactor was simulated and coke in these reactors are compared. In addition, the effect of steam ratio and feed flow rate on coke formation was investigated.

Keywords: Coke Formation, CFD Simulation, Fixed Bed, Catalyitic Cracking.

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1101 Landfill Design for Reclamation of Şırnak Coal Mine Dumps: Shalefill Stability and Risk Assessment

Authors: Yıldırım I. Tosun, Halim Cevizci, Hakan Ceylan

Abstract:

By GEO5 FEM program with four rockfill slope modeling and stability analysis was performed for S1, S2, S3 and S4 slopes where landslides of the shalefills were limited. Effective angle of internal friction (φ'°) 17°-22.5°, the effective cohesion (c') from 0.5 to 1.8 kPa, saturated unit weight 1.78-2.43 g/cm3, natural unit weight 1.9-2.35 g/cm3, dry unit weight 1.97-2.40 g/cm3, the permeability coefficient of 1x10-4 - 6.5x10-4 cm/s. In cross-sections of the slope, GEO 5 FEM program possible critical surface tension was examined. Rockfill dump design was made to prevent sliding slopes. Bulk material designated geotechnical properties using also GEO5 programs FEM and stability program via a safety factor determined and calculated according to the values S3 and S4 No. slopes are stable S1 and S2 No. slopes were close to stable state that has been found to be risk. GEO5 programs with limestone rock fill dump through FEM program was found to exhibit stability.

Keywords: Slope stability, GEO5, rockfills, rock stability.

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1100 Time Series Forecasting Using a Hybrid RBF Neural Network and AR Model Based On Binomial Smoothing

Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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1099 Coupled Electromagnetic and Thermal Field Modeling of a Laboratory Busbar System

Authors: Tatyana R. Radeva, Ivan S. Yatchev, Dimitar N. Karastoyanov, Nikolay I. Stoimenov, Stanislav D. Gyoshev

Abstract:

The paper presents coupled electromagnetic and thermal field analysis of busbar system (of rectangular cross-section geometry) submitted to short circuit conditions. The laboratory model was validated against both analytical solution and experimental observations. The considered problem required the computation of the detailed distribution of the power losses and the heat transfer modes. In this electromagnetic and thermal analysis, different definitions of electric busbar heating were considered and compared. The busbar system is a three phase one and consists of aluminum, painted aluminum and copper busbar. The solution to the coupled field problem is obtained using the finite element method and the QuickField™ program. Experiments have been carried out using two different approaches and compared with computed results.

Keywords: Busbar system, coupled problems, finite element method, short-circuit currents.

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1098 Diagnostic Investigation of Aircraft Performance at Different Winglet Cant Angles

Authors: Dinesh M., Kenny Mark V., Dharni Vasudhevan Venkatesan, Santhosh Kumar B., Sree Radesh R., V. R. Sanal Kumar

Abstract:

Comprehensive numerical studies have been carried out to examine the best aerodynamic performance of subsonic aircraft at different winglet cant angles using a validated 3D k-ω SST model. In the parametric analytical studies NACA series of airfoils are selected. Basic design of the winglet is selected from the literature and flow features of the entire wing including the winglet tip effects have been examined with different cant angles varying from 150 to 600 at different angles of attack up to 140. We have observed, among the cases considered in this study that a case, with 150 cant angle the aerodynamics performance of the subsonic aircraft during takeoff was found better up to an angle of attack of 2.80 and further its performance got diminished at higher angles of attack. Analyses further revealed that increasing the winglet cant angle from 150 to 600 at higher angles of attack could negate the performance deterioration and additionally it could enhance the peak CL/CD on the order of 3.5%. The investigated concept of variable-cant-angle winglets appears to be a promising alternative for improving the aerodynamic efficiency of aircraft.

Keywords: Aerodynamic efficiency, Cant-angle, Drag reduction, Flexible Winglets.

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1097 Relationships among Tourists’ Needs for Uniqueness, Perceived Authenticity and Behavioral Intentions

Authors: Deniz Karagöz Yüncü

Abstract:

This study tested a structural model which investigates the relationships among tourists’ need for uniqueness, perceived authenticity (object-based authenticity and existential authenticity) and behavioral intentions to consume cultural and heritage destinations. The sample of the study comprised of 281 participants in a cultural heritage site, in Cappadocia, Turkey. The data were provided via face to face interviews in two months (September and October) which considered the high season. Structural equation modeling was employed to test the causal relationships among the hypotheses. Findings revealed tourists’ creative choice had an influence on object-based authenticity and existential authenticity. Tourists’ avoidance had an influence on object-based authenticity. The study concluded that two dimensions, namely, the object based authenticity and existential authenticity had significant impact on behavioral intentions.

Keywords: Needs for uniqueness, object-based authenticity, existential authenticity, behavioral intentions.

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1096 FZP Design Considering Spherical Wave Incidence

Authors: Sergio Pérez-López, Daniel Tarrazó-Serrano, José M. Fuster, Pilar Candelas, Constanza Rubio

Abstract:

Fresnel Zone Plates (FZPs) are widely used in many areas, such as optics, microwaves or acoustics. On the design of FZPs, plane wave incidence is typically considered, but that is not usually the case in ultrasounds, especially in applications where a piston emitter is placed at a certain distance from the lens. In these cases, having control of the focal distance is very important, and with the usual Fresnel equation a focal displacement from the theoretical distance is observed due to the plane wave supposition. In this work, a comparison between FZP with plane wave incidence design and FZP with point source design in the case of piston emitter is presented. Influence of the main parameters of the piston in the final focalization profile has been studied. Numerical models and experimental results are shown, and they prove that when spherical wave incidence is considered for the piston case, it is possible to have a fine control of the focal distance in comparison with the classical design method.

Keywords: Focusing, Fresnel zone plate, ultrasound, spherical wave incidence, piston emitter.

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