Search results for: statistical models

Authors: Tai Yuan Yu, Pei-Jen Wang

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Oil-free turbomachinery is considered one of the critical technologies for future green power generation systems as rotor machinery systems. Oil-free technology allows clean, compact, and maintenance-free working, and gas foil bearings (GFBs) are important for the technology. Since the first applications in the auxiliary power units and air cycle machines in the 1970s, obvious improvement has been created to the computational models for dynamic rotor behavior. However, many technical issues are still poorly understood or remain unsolved, and some of those are thermal management and the pattern of how pressure will be distributed in bearing clearance. This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) fluid-structure interaction model of single pad foil bearings and three pad foil bearings to predict bearing working behavior that researchers could compare characteristics of those. The coupling analysis model involves dynamic working characteristics applied to all the gas film and mechanical structures. Therefore, the elastic deformation of foil structure and the hydrodynamic pressure of gas film can both be calculated by a finite element method program. As a result, the temperature distribution pattern could also be iteratively solved by coupling analysis. In conclusion, the working fluid state in a gas film of various pad forms of bearings working characteristic at constant rotational speed for both can be solved for comparisons with the experimental results.

Keywords: Fluid structure interaction multi-physics simulations, gas foil bearing, oil-free, transient thermohydrodynamic.

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Authors: Brian Considine, Aonghus McNabola, John Gallagher, Prashant Kumar

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Passive air pollution control devices known as aspiration efficiency reducers (AER) have been developed using aspiration efficiency (AE) concepts. Their purpose is to reduce the concentration of particulate matter (PM) drawn into a building air handling unit (AHU) through alterations in the inlet design improving energy consumption. In this paper an examination is conducted into the effect of installing a deflector system around an AER-AHU inlet for both a forward and rear-facing orientations relative to the wind. The results of the study found that these deflectors are an effective passive control method for reducing AE at various ambient wind speeds over a range of microparticles of varying diameter. The deflector system was found to induce a large wake zone at low ambient wind speeds for a rear-facing AER-AHU, resulting in significantly lower AE in comparison to without. As the wind speed increased, both contained a wake zone but have much lower concentration gradients with the deflectors. For the forward-facing models, the deflector system at low ambient wind speed was preferred at higher Stokes numbers but there was negligible difference as the Stokes number decreased. Similarly, there was no significant difference at higher wind speeds across the Stokes number range tested. The results demonstrate that a deflector system is a viable passive control method for the reduction of ventilation energy consumption.

Keywords: Aspiration efficiency, energy, particulate matter, ventilation.

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Authors: Raymond Xu, Ashley Hua, Andrew Wang, Yuru Lin

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During COVID-19, the depression rate has increased dramatically. Young adults are most vulnerable to the mental health effects of the pandemic. Lower-income families have a higher ratio to be diagnosed with depression than the general population, but less access to clinics. This research aims to achieve early depression detection at low cost, large scale, and high accuracy with an interdisciplinary approach by incorporating clinical practices defined by American Psychiatric Association (APA) as well as multimodal AI framework. The proposed approach detected the nine depression symptoms with Natural Language Processing sentiment analysis and a symptom-based Lexicon uniquely designed for young adults. The experiments were conducted on the multimedia survey results from adolescents and young adults and unbiased Twitter communications. The result was further aggregated with the facial emotional cues analyzed by the Convolutional Neural Network on the multimedia survey videos. Five experiments each conducted on 10k data entries reached consistent results with an average accuracy of 88.31%, higher than the existing natural language analysis models. This approach can reach 300+ million daily active Twitter users and is highly accessible by low-income populations to promote early depression detection to raise awareness in adolescents and young adults and reveal complementary cues to assist clinical depression diagnosis.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, depression detection, facial emotion recognition, natural language processing, mental disorder.

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Authors: M. Iommi, G. Losco

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Current building sector is focused on reduction of energy requirements, on renewable energy generation and on regeneration of existing urban areas. These targets need to be solved with a systemic approach, considering several aspects simultaneously such as climate conditions, lighting conditions, solar radiation, PV potential, etc. The solar access analysis is an already known method to analyze the solar potentials, but in current years, simulation tools have provided more effective opportunities to perform this type of analysis, in particular in the early design stage. Nowadays, the study of the solar access is related to the easiness of the use of simulation tools, in rapid and easy way, during the design process. This study presents a comparison of three simulation tools, from the point of view of the user, with the aim to highlight differences in the easy-to-use of these tools. Using a real urban context as case study, three tools; Ecotect, Townscope and Heliodon, are tested, performing models and simulations and examining the capabilities and output results of solar access analysis. The evaluation of the ease-to-use of these tools is based on some detected parameters and features, such as the types of simulation, requirements of input data, types of results, etc. As a result, a framework is provided in which features and capabilities of each tool are shown. This framework shows the differences among these tools about functions, features and capabilities. The aim of this study is to support users and to improve the integration of simulation tools for solar access with the design process.

Keywords: Solar access analysis, energy building design tools, urban planning, solar potential.

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Authors: Gysele Lima Ricci, Jose Miguel Rodriguez Anton

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Companies in the tourism sector need to achieve competitive advantages for their survival in the market. In this way, the models based on association, cooperation, complementarity, distribution, exchange and mutual assistance arise as a possibility of organizational development, taking as reference the concept of networks. Many companies seek to partner in local networks as clusters to act together and associate. The main objective of the present research is to identify the specificities of management and the practices of cooperation in the tourist destination of São Paulo - Brazil, and to propose a new management model with possible cluster of tourism. The empirical analysis was carried out in three phases. As a first phase, a research was made by the companies, associations and tourism organizations existing in São Paulo, analyzing the characteristics of their business. In the second phase, the management specificities and cooperation practice used in the tourist destination. And in the third phase, identifying the possible strengths and weaknesses that potential or potential tourist cluster could have, proposing the development of the management model of the same adapted to the needs of the companies, associations and organizations. As a main result, it has been identified that companies, associations and organizations could be looking for synergies with each other and collaborate through a Hiperred organizational structure, in which they share their knowledge, try to make the most of the collaboration and to benefit from three concepts: flexibility, learning and collaboration. Finally, it is concluded that, the proposed tourism cluster management model is viable for the development of tourism destinations because it makes it possible to strategically address agents which are responsible for public policies, as well as public and private companies and organizations in their strategies competitiveness and cooperation.

Keywords: Cluster, management model, networks, tourism sector.

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Authors: Ferhat Erdal, Osman Tunca, Serkan Tas, Serdar Carbas

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Web-expanded steel beams provide an easy and economical solution for the systems having longer structural members. The main goal of manufacturing these beams is to increase the moment of inertia and section modulus, which results in greater strength and rigidity. Until recently, there were two common types of open web-expanded beams: with hexagonal openings, also called castellated beams, and beams with circular openings referred to as cellular beams, until the generation of sinusoidal web-expanded beams. In the present research, the optimum design of a new generation beams, namely sinusoidal web-expanded beams, will be carried out and the design results will be compared with castellated and cellular beam solutions. Thanks to a reduced fabrication process and substantial material savings, the web-expanded beam with sinusoidal holes (Angelina™ Beam) meets the economic requirements of steel design problems while ensuring optimum safety. The objective of this research is to carry out non-linear finite element analysis (FEA) of the web-expanded beam with sinusoidal holes. The FE method has been used to predict their entire response to increasing values of external loading until they lose their load carrying capacity. FE model of each specimen that is utilized in the experimental studies is carried out. These models are used to simulate the experimental work to verify of test results and to investigate the non-linear behavior of failure modes such as web-post buckling, shear buckling and vierendeel bending of beams.

Keywords: Steel structures, web-expanded beams, Angelina™ beam, optimum design, failure modes, finite element analysis.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Anthropometric measurements are essential for obesity studies. Waist circumference (WC) is the most frequently used measure and along with hip circumference (HC), it is used in most equations derived for the evaluation of obese individuals. Morbid obesity (MO) is the most severe clinical form of obesity and such individuals may also exhibit some clinical findings leading to metabolic syndrome (MetS). Then, it becomes a requirement to discriminate MO children with MetS (MOMetS+) from MO children without MetS (MOMetS-). Almost all obesity indices can differentiate obese (OB) children from children with normal body mass index (N-BMI). However, not all of them are capable of making this distinction. The aim of this study was to find out the clinical availability of (waist circumference + hip circumference)/2 ((WC+HC)/2) for the differential diagnosis of MOMetS+ and MOMetS- and to compare the possible preponderance of it over some other anthropometric or fat-based obesity indices. 45 MOMetS+ and 45 MOMetS- children were included in the study. Participants have submitted informed consent forms. The study protocol was approved by the Non-interventional Clinical Studies Ethics Committee of Tekirdag Namik Kemal University. Anthropometric measurements were performed. BMI, waist-to-hip circumference (WHR), (WC+HC)/2, trunk-to-leg fat ratio (TLFR), trunk-to-appendicular fat ratio (TAFR), trunk fat+leg fat/2 ((trunk+leg fat)/2), diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index-2 (D2I) and fat mass index (FMI) were calculated for both groups. Study data were analyzed statistically and 0.05 for p value was accepted as the statistical significance degree. Statistically higher BMI, WC, (WC+HC)/2, (trunk+leg fat)/2 values were found in MOMetS+ children than MOMetS- children. No statistically significant difference was detected for WHR, TLFR, TAFR, D2I and FMI between two groups. The lack of difference between the groups in terms of FMI and D2I pointed out the fact that the recently developed fat-based index; (trunk+leg fat)/2 gives much more valuable information during the evaluation of MOMetS+ and MOMetS- children. Upon evaluation of the correlations, (WC+HC)/2 was strongly correlated with D2I and FMI in both MOMetS+ and MOMetS- groups. Neither D2I nor FMI was correlated with W/H. Strong correlations were calculated between (WC+HC)/2 and (trunk+leg fat)/2 in both MOMetS- (r = 0.961; p < 0.001) and MOMetS+ (r = 0.936; p < 0.001) groups. Partial correlations between (WC+HC)/2 and (trunk+leg fat)/2 after controlling the effect of basal metabolic rate were r = 0.726; p < 0.001 in MOMetS- group and r = 0.932; p < 0.001 in MOMetS+ group. The correlation in the latter group was higher than the first group. In conclusion, recently developed anthropometric obesity index (WC+HC)/2 and fat-based obesity index (trunk+leg fat)/2 were of preponderance over the previously introduced classical obesity indices such as WHR, D2I and FMI during the differential diagnosis of MOMetS+ and MOMetS- children.

Keywords: Hip circumference, metabolic syndrome, morbid obesity, waist circumference.

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Authors: A. Rong, P. B. Luh, R. Lahdelma

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High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar power and wind power into the energy system has caused temporal and spatial imbalance between electric power supply and demand for some countries and regions. This brings about the critical need for coordinating power production and power exchange for different regions. As compared with the power-only systems, the combined heat and power (CHP) systems can provide additional flexibility of utilizing RES by exploiting the interdependence of power and heat production in the CHP plant. In the CHP system, power production can be influenced by adjusting heat production level and electric power can be used to satisfy heat demand by electric boiler or heat pump in conjunction with heat storage, which is much cheaper than electric storage. This paper addresses multi-site CHP systems without considering RES, which lay foundation for handling penetration of RES. The problem under study is the unit commitment (UC) of the transmission-constrained multi-site CHP systems. We solve the problem by combining linear relaxation of ON/OFF states and sequential dynamic programming (DP) techniques, where relaxed states are used to reduce the dimension of the UC problem and DP for improving the solution quality. Numerical results for daily scheduling with realistic models and data show that DP-based algorithm is from a few to a few hundred times faster than CPLEX (standard commercial optimization software) with good solution accuracy (less than 1% relative gap from the optimal solution on the average).

Keywords: Dynamic programming, multi-site combined heat and power system, relaxed states, transmission-constrained generation unit commitment.

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Authors: Roberto Sabatini, Alessandro Gardi, Mark A. Richardson

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The availability of powerful eye-safe laser sources and the recent advancements in electro-optical and mechanical beam-steering components have allowed laser-based Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) to become a promising technology for obstacle warning and avoidance in a variety of manned and unmanned aircraft applications. LIDAR outstanding angular resolution and accuracy characteristics are coupled to its good detection performance in a wide range of incidence angles and weather conditions, providing an ideal obstacle avoidance solution, which is especially attractive in low-level flying platforms such as helicopters and small-to-medium size Unmanned Aircraft (UA). The Laser Obstacle Avoidance Marconi (LOAM) system is one of such systems, which was jointly developed and tested by SELEX-ES and the Italian Air Force Research and Flight Test Centre. The system was originally conceived for military rotorcraft platforms and, in this paper, we briefly review the previous work and discuss in more details some of the key development activities required for integration of LOAM on UA platforms. The main hardware and software design features of this LOAM variant are presented, including a brief description of the system interfaces and sensor characteristics, together with the system performance models and data processing algorithms for obstacle detection, classification and avoidance. In particular, the paper focuses on the algorithm proposed for optimal avoidance trajectory generation in UA applications.

Keywords: LIDAR, Low-Level Flight, Nap-of-the-Earth Flight, Near Infra-Red, Obstacle Avoidance, Obstacle Detection, Obstacle Warning System, Sense and Avoid, Trajectory Optimisation, Unmanned Aircraft.

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Authors: Anca-Diana Bibiri, Mihaela Mocanu, Adrian Turculeț

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In a language the inventory of greetings is dynamic with frequent input and output, although this is hardly noticed by the speakers. In this register, there are a number of constant, conservative elements that survive different language models (among them, the classic formulae: bună ziua! (good afternoon!), bună seara! (good evening!), noapte bună! (good night!), la revedere! (goodbye!) and a number of items that fail to pass the test of time, according to language use at a time (ciao!, pa!, bai!). The source of innovation depends both of internal factors (contraction, conversion, combination of classic formulae of greetings), and of external ones (borrowings and calques). Their use imposes their frequencies at once, namely the elimination of the use of others. This paper presents a sociolinguistic approach of contemporary Romanian greetings, based on prosodic surveys in two research projects: AMPRom, and SoRoEs. Romanian language presents a rich inventory of questions (especially partial interrogatives questions/WH-Q) which are used as greetings, alone or, more commonly accompanying a proper greeting. The representative of the typical formulae is Ce mai faci? (How are you?), which, unlike its English counterpart How do you do?, has not become a stereotype, but retains an obvious emotional impact, while serving as a mark of sociolinguistic group. The analyzed corpus consists of structures containing greetings recorded in the main Romanian cultural (urban) centers. From the methodological point of view, the acoustic analysis of the recorded data is performed using software tools (GoldWave, Praat), identifying intonation patterns related to three sociolinguistics variables: age, sex and level of education. The intonation patterns of the analyzed statements are at the interface between partial questions and typical greetings.

Keywords: acoustic analysis, greetings, Romanian language, sociolinguistics

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Authors: L. Nekoozad, M. Salehi Barough, B. Salmasian

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Introduction: Some parameters should be considered to investigate the chronic effects of radiation absorption in radiation workers. Trace elements are parameters which small changes in them can cause significant effects on live systems. The role of trace element concentration in human health is significant. These elements play an important role in the developing and functioning of the immune system, cellular respiration, and oxidation processes. Considering the importance and necessity of this issue and few studies, measurements of concentration changes of these elements due to the absorbed dose are important. Purpose: This study aimed to determine the biological effects of occupational dose absorption on plasma and erythrocyte concentration of Zn and Cu in the radiology staff of Tehran Oil Hospital. Material and methods: In this analytical-comparative study, 72 people have entered. 36 people (18 males and 18 females) were selected as radiology staff in the diagnostic and therapeutic departments of Tehran Oil Hospital. And 36 people (18 males and 18 females) were selected as general section staff in the same hospital as a control group. Radiology and control groups’ age and sex were matched. 10 ml of venous blood was taken from all people.  An atomic absorption spectrometer was used to obtain zinc and copper plasma concentrations. Levine test was used to compare these results validity. Results: The mean concentrations of copper and zinc were measured as 0.951 and 0.754 mg/L in the plasma phase and 3.2  and 0.401 mg/L in the RBC phase for the radiology group.  Copper and zinc average concentrations, respectively 0.976 and 0.813 mg/L in the plasma phase and 2.906 and 0.476 mg/L in the RBC phase, were measured for the control group. These elements Concentrations in the plasma phase were significantly different from that of the control group, but the concentrations in the red blood cell phase did not show a significant difference compared to the control group. In comparison, a separate comparison between men and women in the experimental and control groups showed a significant difference in the values of the elements mentioned. With a significant increase in samples, a better justification than the available statistical results can be extracted. Conclusions: Within this study results, chronic occupational probabilistic absorption destructive effects (even within the permitted range) on blood trace element concentration have been confirmed.

Keywords: Chronic absorption, atomic absorption spectrometry, radiology staff, trace element concentration.

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Authors: Franklin Nantui Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

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Rice yields among agro-ecological zones are heterogeneous. Farmers, researchers and policy makers are making frantic efforts to bridge rice yield gaps between agro-ecological zones through the promotion of improved agricultural technologies (IATs). Farmers are also modifying these IATs and blending them with indigenous farming practices (IFPs) to form farmer innovation systems (FISs). Also, different metafrontier models have been used in estimating productivity performances and their drivers. This study used the two-step stochastic metafrontier model to estimate the productivity performances of rice farmers and their determining factors in GSZ, FSTZ and CSZ. The study used both primary and secondary data. Farmers in CSZ are the most technically efficient. Technical inefficiencies of farmers are negatively influenced by age, sex, household size, education years, extension visits, contract farming, access to improved seeds, access to irrigation, high rainfall amount, less lodging of rice, and well-coordinated and synergized adoption of technologies. Albeit farmers in CSZ are doing well in terms of rice yield, they still have the highest potential of increasing rice yield since they had the lowest TGR. It is recommended that government through the ministry of food and agriculture, development partners and individual private companies promote the adoption of IATs as well as educate farmers on how to coordinate and synergize the adoption of the whole package. Contract farming concept and agricultural extension intensification should be vigorously pursued to the latter.

Keywords: Efficiency, farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, two-step stochastic metafrontier approach.

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Authors: F. Stazi, C. Di Perna, C. Filiaci, A. Stazi

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Passive systems were born with the purpose of the greatest exploitation of solar energy in cold climates and high altitudes. They spread themselves until the 80-s all over the world without any attention to the specific climate and the summer behavior; this caused the deactivation of the systems due to a series of problems connected to the summer overheating, the complex management and the rising of the dust. Until today the European regulation limits only the winter consumptions without any attention to the summer behavior but, the recent European EN 15251 underlines the relevance of the indoor comfort, and the necessity of the analytic studies validation by monitoring case studies. In the porpose paper we demonstrate that the solar wall is an efficient system both from thermal comfort and energy saving point of view and it is the most suitable for our temperate climates because it can be used as a passive cooling sistem too. In particular the paper present an experimental and numerical analisys carried out on a case study with nine different solar passive systems in Ancona, Italy. We carried out a detailed study of the lodging provided by the solar wall by the monitoring and the evaluation of the indoor conditions. Analyzing the monitored data, on the base of recognized models of comfort (ISO, ASHRAE, Givoni-s BBCC), is emerged that the solar wall has an optimal behavior in the middle seasons. In winter phase this passive system gives more advantages in terms of energy consumptions than the other systems, because it gives greater heat gain and therefore smaller consumptions. In summer, when outside air temperature return in the mean seasonal value, the indoor comfort is optimal thanks to an efficient transversal ventilation activated from the same wall.

Keywords: Building envelope, energy saving, passive solarwall, thermal comfort.

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Authors: Miguel A. Gómez , Enrique Hilario , Francisco J. Alvarez , Elena Gastiasoro , Antonia Alvarez, Juan L. Larrabe

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Total liquid ventilation can support gas exchange in animal models of lung injury. Clinical application awaits further technical improvements and performance verification. Our aim was to develop a liquid ventilator, able to deliver accurate tidal volumes, and a computerized system for measuring lung mechanics. The computer-assisted, piston-driven respirator controlled ventilatory parameters that were displayed and modified on a real-time basis. Pressure and temperature transducers along with a lineal displacement controller provided the necessary signals to calculate lung mechanics. Ten newborn lambs (<6 days old) with respiratory failure induced by lung lavage, were monitored using the system. Electromechanical, hydraulic and data acquisition/analysis components of the ventilator were developed and tested in animals with respiratory failure. All pulmonary signals were collected synchronized in time, displayed in real-time, and archived on digital media. The total mean error (due to transducers, A/D conversion, amplifiers, etc.) was less than 5% compared to calibrated signals. Improvements in gas exchange and lung mechanics were observed during liquid ventilation, without impairment of cardiovascular profiles. The total liquid ventilator maintained accurate control of tidal volumes and the sequencing of inspiration/expiration. The computerized system demonstrated its ability to monitor in vivo lung mechanics, providing valuable data for early decision-making.

Keywords: immature lamb, perfluorocarbon, pressure-limited, total liquid ventilation, ventilator; volume-controlled

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Authors: Yongsheng Guo, Xiaoxian Zhu, Mandella Osei-Assibey Bonsu

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This study explores the effects of national culture on consumer behaviour by identifying the characteristics of Chinese consumers’ decision making in Europe. It offers a better understanding of how cultural factors affect consumers’ behaviour, and how consumers make decisions in other nations with different culture. It adopted a grounded theory approach and conducted 24 in-depth interviews. Grounded theory models are developed to link the causal conditions, process, and consequences. Results reveal that some cultural factors including conservatism, emotionality, acquaintance community, long-term orientation and principles affect Chinese consumers when making purchase decisions in Europe. Most Chinese consumers plan and prepare their expenditure and stay in Europe as cultural learners, and purchase durable products or assets as investment, and share their experiences within a community. This study identified potential problems such as political and social environment, complex procedures, and restrictions. This study found that external factors influence internal factors and then internal characters determine consumer behaviour. This study proposes that cultural traits developed in convergence evolution through social selection and Chinese consumers persist most characters but adapt some perceptions and actions overtime in other countries. This study suggests that cultural marketing could be adopted by companies to reflect consumers’ preferences. Agencies, shops, and the authorities could take actions to reduce the complexity and restrictions.

Keywords: National culture, consumer behaviour, cultural marketing, decision making.

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Authors: Jiří F. Urbánek, David Král

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Small and Middle Enterprises (SME) have a specific mission, characteristics, and behavior in global business competitive environments. They must respect policy, rules, requirements and standards in all their inherent and outer processes of supply - customer chains and networks. Paper aims and purposes are to introduce computational assistance, which enables us the using of prevailing operation system MS Office (SmartArt...) for mathematical models, using DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) method. It is providing for SMS´s global environment the capability and profit to achieve its commitment regarding the effectiveness of the quality management system in customer requirements meeting and also the continual improvement of the organization’s and SME´s processes overall performance and efficiency, as well as its societal security via continual planning improvement. DYVELOP model´s maps - the Blazons are able mathematically - graphically express the relationships among entities, actors, and processes, including the discovering and modeling of the cycling cases and their phases. The blazons need live PowerPoint presentation for better comprehension of this paper mission – added value analysis. The crisis management of SMEs is obliged to use the cycles for successful coping of crisis situations.  Several times cycling of these cases is a necessary condition for the encompassment of the both the emergency event and the mitigation of organization´s damages. Uninterrupted and continuous cycling process is a good indicator and controlling actor of SME continuity and its sustainable development advanced possibilities.

Keywords: Blazons, computational assistance, DYVELOP method, small and middle enterprises.

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Authors: Daniel Murrant, Andrew Quinn, Lee Chapman

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A growing population has led to increasing global water and energy demand. This demand, combined with the effects of climate change and an increasing need to maintain and protect the natural environment, represents a potentially severe threat to many national infrastructure systems. This has resulted in a considerable quantity of published material on the interdependencies that exist between the supply of water and the thermal generation of electricity, often known as the water-energy nexus. Focusing specifically on the UK, there is a growing concern that the future availability of water may at times constrain thermal electricity generation, and therefore hinder the UK in meeting its increasing demand for a secure, and affordable supply of low carbon electricity. To provide further information on the threat the water-energy nexus may pose to the UK’s energy system, this paper models the regional water demand of UK thermal electricity generation in 2030 and 2050. It uses the strategically important Energy Systems Modelling Environment model developed by the Energy Technologies Institute. Unlike previous research, this paper was able to use abstraction and consumption factors specific to UK power stations. It finds that by 2050 the South East, Yorkshire and Humber, the West Midlands and North West regions are those with the greatest freshwater demand and therefore most likely to suffer from a lack of resource. However, it finds that by 2050 it is the East, South West and East Midlands regions with the greatest total water (fresh, estuarine and seawater) demand and the most likely to be constrained by environmental standards.

Keywords: Water-energy nexus, water resources, abstraction, climate change, power station cooling.

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Authors: Rabih Ghostine, Craig Kapfer, Viswanathan Kannan, Ibrahim Hoteit

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Urban flooding resulting from a sudden release of water due to dam-break or excessive rainfall is a serious threatening environment hazard, which causes loss of human life and large economic losses. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision, and rescue plans. This work reports on the numerical modelling of flash flood propagation in urban areas after an excessive rainfall event or dam-break. A two-dimensional (2D) depth-averaged shallow water model is used with a refined unstructured grid of triangles for representing the urban area topography. The 2D shallow water equations are solved using a second-order well-balanced discontinuous Galerkin scheme. Theoretical test case and three flood events are described to demonstrate the potential benefits of the scheme: (i) wetting and drying in a parabolic basin (ii) flash flood over a physical model of the urbanized Toce River valley in Italy; (iii) wave propagation on the Reyran river valley in consequence of the Malpasset dam-break in 1959 (France); and (iv) dam-break flood in October 1982 at the town of Sumacarcel (Spain). The capability of the scheme is also verified against alternative models. Computational results compare well with recorded data and show that the scheme is at least as efficient as comparable second-order finite volume schemes, with notable efficiency speedup due to parallelization.

Keywords: Flood modeling, dam-break, shallow water equations, Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, MUSCL scheme.

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Authors: Kutubuddin Ansari, Malay Mukul, Sridevi Jade

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We used high-precision Global Positioning System (GPS) to geodetically constrain the motion of stations in the Darjiling-Sikkim Himalayan (DSH) wedge and examine the deformation at the Indian-Tibetan plate boundary using IGS (International GPS Service) fiducial stations. High-precision GPS based displacement and velocity field was measured in the DSH between 1997 and 2009. To obtain additional insight north of the Indo-Tibetan border and in the Darjiling-Sikkim-Tibet (DaSiT) wedge, published velocities from four stations J037, XIGA, J029 and YADO were also included in the analysis. India-fixed velocities or the back-slip was computed relative to the pole of rotation of the Indian Plate (Latitude 52.97 ± 0.22º, Longitude - 0.30 ± 3.76º, and Angular Velocity 0.500 ± 0.008º/ Myr) in the DaSiT wedge. Dislocation modelling was carried out with the back-slip to model the best possible solution of a finite rectangular dislocation or the causative fault based on dislocation theory that produced the observed back-slip using a forward modelling approach. To find the best possible solution, three different models were attempted. First, slip along a single thrust fault, then two thrust faults and in finally, three thrust faults were modelled to simulate the back-slip in the DaSiT wedge. The three-fault case bests the measured displacements and is taken as the best possible solution.

Keywords: Global Positioning System, Darjiling-Sikkim Himalaya, Dislocation modelling.

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Authors: Dolores Hidalgo, Jesús M. Martín-Marroquín, Francisco Corona

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Municipal waste consist of a variety of items that are everyday discarded by the population. They are usually collected by municipalities and include waste generated by households, commercial activities (local shops) and public buildings. The composition of municipal waste varies greatly from place to place, being mostly related to levels and patterns of consumption, rates of urbanization, lifestyles, and local or national waste management practices. Each year, a huge amount of resources is consumed in the EU, and according to that, also a huge amount of waste is produced. The environmental problems derived from the management and processing of these waste streams are well known, and include impacts on land, water and air. The situation in remote areas is even worst. Difficult access when climatic conditions are adverse, remoteness of centralized municipal treatment systems or dispersion of the population, are all factors that make remote areas a real municipal waste treatment challenge. Furthermore, the scope of the problem increases significantly because the total lack of awareness of the existing risks in this area together with the poor implementation of advanced culture on waste minimization and recycling responsibly. The aim of this work is to analyze the existing situation in remote areas in reference to the production of municipal waste and evaluate the efficiency of different management alternatives. Ideas for improving waste management in remote areas include, for example: the implementation of self-management systems for the organic fraction; establish door-to-door collection models; promote small-scale treatment facilities or adjust the rates of waste generation thereof.

Keywords: Door to door collection, islands, isolated areas, municipal waste, remote areas, rural communities.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Pediatric overweight and obesity need attention because they may cause morbid obesity, which may develop metabolic syndrome (MetS). Criteria used for the definition of adult MetS cannot be applied for pediatric MetS. Dynamic physiological changes that occur during childhood and adolescence require the evaluation of each parameter based upon age intervals. The aim of this study is to investigate the distribution of blood pressure (BP) values within diverse pediatric age intervals and the possible use and clinical utility of a recently introduced Diagnostic Obesity Notation Model Assessment Tension (DONMA tense) Index derived from systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) [SBP+DBP/200]. Such a formula may enable a more integrative picture for the assessment of pediatric obesity and MetS due to the use of both SBP and DBP. 554 children, whose ages were between 6-16 years participated in the study; the study population was divided into two groups based upon their ages. The first group comprises 280 cases aged 6-10 years (72-120 months), while those aged 10-16 years (121-192 months) constituted the second group. The values of SBP, DBP and the formula (SBP+DBP/200) covering both were evaluated. Each group was divided into seven subgroups with varying degrees of obesity and MetS criteria. Two clinical definitions of MetS have been described. These groups were MetS3 (children with three major components), and MetS2 (children with two major components). The other groups were morbid obese (MO), obese (OB), overweight (OW), normal (N) and underweight (UW). The children were included into the groups according to the age- and sex-based body mass index (BMI) percentile values tabulated by WHO. Data were evaluated by SPSS version 16 with p < 0.05 as the statistical significance degree. Tension index was evaluated in the groups above and below 10 years of age. This index differed significantly between N and MetS as well as OW and MetS groups (p = 0.001) above 120 months. However, below 120 months, significant differences existed between MetS3 and MetS2 (p = 0.003) as well as MetS3 and MO (p = 0.001). In comparison with the SBP and DBP values, tension index values have enabled more clear-cut separation between the groups. It has been detected that the tension index was capable of discriminating MetS3 from MetS2 in the group, which was composed of children aged 6-10 years. This was not possible in the older group of children. This index was more informative for the first group. This study also confirmed that 130 mm Hg and 85 mm Hg cut-off points for SBP and DBP, respectively, are too high for serving as MetS criteria in children because the mean value for tension index was calculated as 1.00 among MetS children. This finding has shown that much lower cut-off points must be set for SBP and DBP for the diagnosis of pediatric MetS, especially for children under-10 years of age. This index may be recommended to discriminate MO, MetS2 and MetS3 among the 6-10 years of age group, whose MetS diagnosis is problematic.

Keywords: Blood pressure, children, index, metabolic syndrome, obesity.

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Authors: Idris A. Elfeituri

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This paper studies the effect of ambient conditions on the performance of a 285 MW gas turbine unit using the exergy concept. Based on the available exergy balance models developed, a computer program has been constructed to investigate the performance of the power plant under varying ambient temperature and relative humidity conditions. The variations of ambient temperature range from zero to 50 ºC and the relative humidity ranges from zero to 100%, while the unit load kept constant at 100% of the design load. The exergy destruction ratio and exergy efficiency are determined for each component and for the entire plant. The results show a moderate increase in the total exergy destruction ratio of the plant from 62.05% to 65.20%, while the overall exergy efficiency decrease from 38.2% to 34.8% as the ambient temperature increases from zero to 50 ºC at all relative humidity values. Furthermore, an increase of 1 ºC in ambient temperature leads to 0.063% increase in the total exergy destruction ratio and 0.07% decrease in the overall exergy efficiency. The relative humidity has a remarkable influence at higher ambient temperature values on the exergy destruction ratio of combustion chamber and on exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas but almost no effect on the total exergy destruction ratio and overall exergy efficiency. At 50 ºC ambient temperature, the exergy destruction ratio of the combustion chamber increases from 30% to 52% while the exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas decreases from 28% to 8% as the relative humidity increases from zero to 100%. In addition, exergy analysis reveals that the combustion chamber and exhaust gas are the main source of irreversibility in the gas turbine unit. It is also identified that the exergy efficiency and exergy destruction ratio are considerably dependent on the variations in the ambient air temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the incorporation of the existing gas turbine plant with inlet air cooling and humidifier technologies should be considered seriously.

Keywords: Destruction, exergy, gas turbine, irreversibility, performance.

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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Authors: Theerawat Songyot, Tham Manjing, Bunyarit Uyyanonvara, Chanjira Sinthanayothin

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Corner detection and optical flow are common techniques for feature-based video stabilization. However, these algorithms are computationally expensive and should be performed at a reasonable rate. This paper presents an algorithm for discarding irrelevant feature points and maintaining them for future use so as to improve the computational cost. The algorithm starts by initializing a maintained set. The feature points in the maintained set are examined against its accuracy for modeling. Corner detection is required only when the feature points are insufficiently accurate for future modeling. Then, optical flows are computed from the maintained feature points toward the consecutive frame. After that, a motion model is estimated based on the simplified affine motion model and least square method, with outliers belonging to moving objects presented. Studentized residuals are used to eliminate such outliers. The model estimation and elimination processes repeat until no more outliers are identified. Finally, the entire algorithm repeats along the video sequence with the points remaining from the previous iteration used as the maintained set. As a practical application, an efficient video stabilization can be achieved by exploiting the computed motion models. Our study shows that the number of times corner detection needs to perform is greatly reduced, thus significantly improving the computational cost. Moreover, optical flow vectors are computed for only the maintained feature points, not for outliers, thus also reducing the computational cost. In addition, the feature points after reduction can sufficiently be used for background objects tracking as demonstrated in the simple video stabilizer based on our proposed algorithm.

Keywords: background object tracking, feature point reduction, low cost tracking, video stabilization.

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Authors: Miyako Oulevey, Kaori Tsutsui, David Lavallee, Naohiko Kohtake

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The Japan Sports Agency has made efforts to unify several career support programs for Olympic athletes prior to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. One of the programs, the Japan Olympic Committee Career Academy (JCA) was established in 2008 for Olympic athletes at their retirement. Research focusing on the service content of sport career support programs can help athletes experience a more positive transition. This study was designed to investigate the service content of the JCA program in relation to athletes’ career transition needs, including any differences of the reasons for retirement between Summer/Winter and Male/Female Olympic athletes, and to suggest the directions of how to unify the career support programs in Japan after hosting the Olympic Games using sport career transition models. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed the JCA director who started and managed the program since its inception, and a total of 15 conceptual categories were generated by the analysis. Four conceptual categories were in the result of “JCA situation”, 4 conceptual categories were in the result of “Athletes using JCA”, and 7 conceptual categories were in the result of “JCA current difficulties”. Through the analysis it was revealed that: the JCA had occupational supports for both current and retired Olympic athletes; other supports such as psychological support were unclear due to the lack of psychological professionals in JCA and the difficulties collaborating with other sports organizations; and there are differences in tendencies of visiting JCA, financial situations, and career choices depending on Summer/Winter and Male/Female athletes.

Keywords: Career support programs, causes of career termination, Olympic athlete, Olympic committee.

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Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

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The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: Functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity.

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.

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Authors: T. C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

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Active vibration control is an important problem in structures. The objective of active vibration control is to reduce the vibrations of a system by automatic modification of the system-s structural response. In this paper, the modeling and design of a fast output sampling feedback controller for a smart flexible beam system embedded with shear sensors and actuators for SISO system using Timoshenko beam theory is proposed. FEM theory, Timoshenko beam theory and the state space techniques are used to model the aluminum cantilever beam. For the SISO case, the beam is divided into 5 finite elements and the control actuator is placed at finite element position 1, whereas the sensor is varied from position 2 to 5, i.e., from the nearby fixed end to the free end. Controllers are designed using FOS method and the performance of the designed FOS controller is evaluated for vibration control for 4 SISO models of the same plant. The effect of placing the sensor at different locations on the beam is observed and the performance of the controller is evaluated for vibration control. Some of the limitations of the Euler-Bernoulli theory such as the neglection of shear and axial displacement are being considered here, thus giving rise to an accurate beam model. Embedded shear sensors and actuators have been considered in this paper instead of the surface mounted sensors and actuators for vibration suppression because of lot of advantages. In controlling the vibration modes, the first three dominant modes of vibration of the system are considered.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Fast output sampling feedback control, Finite Element Method, State space model, SISO, Vibration control, LMI

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Authors: Ismail Bile Hassan, Masrah Azrifah Azmi Murad

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This study discovers a novel framework of individual level technology adoption known as I-P (Individual- Privacy) towards health information application in Smart National Identity Card. Many countries introduced smart national identity card (SNIC) with various applications such as health information application embedded inside it. However, the degree to which citizens accept and use some of the embedded applications in smart national identity remains unknown to many governments and application providers as well. Moreover, the factors of trust, perceived risk, Privacy concern and perceived credibility need to be incorporated into more comprehensive models such as extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology known as UTAUT2. UTAUT2 is a mainly widespread and leading theory up to now. This research identifies factors affecting the citizens’ behavioural intention to use health information application embedded in SNIC and extends better understanding on the relevant factors that the government and the application providers would need to consider in predicting citizens’ new technology acceptance in the future. We propose a conceptual framework by combining the UTAUT2 and Privacy Calculus Model constructs and also adding perceived credibility as a new variable. The proposed framework may provide assistance to any government planning, decision, and policy makers involving e-government projects. Empirical study may be conducted in the future to provide proof and empirically validate this I-P framework.

Keywords: Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model, UTAUT2 model, Smart National Identity Card (SNIC), Health information application, Privacy Calculus Model (PCM).

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Authors: Reiko Yamamoto

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This paper reports on a joint research project in which a researcher in applied linguistics and elementary school teachers in Japan explored new ways to realize emotional synchrony in a classroom in childhood education. The primary purpose of this project was to develop a cross-curriculum of the first language (L1) and second language (L2) based on the concept of plurilingualism. This concept is common in Europe, and can-do statements are used in forming the standard of linguistic proficiency in any language; these are attributed to the action-oriented approach in the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages (CEFR). CEFR has a basic tenet of language education: improving communicative competence. Can-do statements are classified into five categories based on the tenet: reading, writing, listening, speaking/ interaction, and speaking/ speech. The first approach of this research was to specify the linguistic proficiency of the children, who are still developing their L1. Elementary school teachers brainstormed and specified the linguistic proficiency of the children as the competency needed to synchronize with others – teachers or peers – physically and mentally. The teachers formed original can-do statements in language proficiency on the basis of the idea that emotional synchrony leads to understanding others in communication. The research objectives are to determine the effect of language education based on the newly developed curriculum and can-do statements. The participants of the experiment were 72 third-graders in Uji Elementary School, Japan. For the experiment, 17 items were developed from the can-do statements formed by the teachers and divided into the same five categories as those of CEFR. A can-do checklist consisting of the items was created. The experiment consisted of three steps: first, the students evaluated themselves using the can-do checklist at the beginning of the school year. Second, one year of instruction was given to the students in Japanese and English classes (six periods a week). Third, the students evaluated themselves using the same can-do checklist at the end of the school year. The results of statistical analysis showed an enhancement of linguistic proficiency of the students. The average results of the post-check exceeded that of the pre-check in 12 out of the 17 items. Moreover, significant differences were shown in four items, three of which belonged to the same category: speaking/ interaction. It is concluded that children can get to understand others’ minds through physical and emotional synchrony. In particular, emotional synchrony is what teachers should aim at in childhood education.

Keywords: Elementary school education, emotional synchrony, language proficiency, sympathy with others.

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