Search results for: statistical sampling.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1663

Search results for: statistical sampling.

1363 A New Heuristic Statistical Methodology for Optimizing Queuing Networks Using Discreet Event Simulation

Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi

Abstract:

Most of the real queuing systems include special properties and constraints, which can not be analyzed directly by using the results of solved classical queuing models. Lack of Markov chains features, unexponential patterns and service constraints, are the mentioned conditions. This paper represents an applied general algorithm for analysis and optimizing the queuing systems. The algorithm stages are described through a real case study. It is consisted of an almost completed non-Markov system with limited number of customers and capacities as well as lots of common exception of real queuing networks. Simulation is used for optimizing this system. So introduced stages over the following article include primary modeling, determining queuing system kinds, index defining, statistical analysis and goodness of fit test, validation of model and optimizing methods of system with simulation.

Keywords: Estimation, queuing system, simulation model, probability distribution, non-Markov chain.

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1362 Hardness Variations as Affected by Bar Diameter of AISI 4140 Steel

Authors: Hamad K. Al-Khalid, Ayman M. Alaskari, Samy E. Oraby

Abstract:

Hardness of the widely used structural steel is of vital importance since it may help in the determination of many mechanical properties of a material under loading situations. In order to obtain reliable information for design, properties homogeneity should be validated. In the current study the hardness variation over the different diameters of the same AISI 4140 bar is investigated. Measurements were taken on the two faces of the stock at equally spaced eight sectors and fifteen layers. Statistical and graphical analysis are performed to asses the distribution of hardness measurements over the specified area. Hardness measurements showed some degree of dispersion with about ± 10% of its nominal value provided by manufacturer. Hardness value is found to have a slight decrease trend as the diameter is reduced. However, an opposite behavior is noticed regarding the sequence of the sector indicating a nonuniform distribution over the same area either on the same face or considering the corresponding sector on the other face (cross section) of the same material bar.

Keywords: Hardness; Hardness variation; AISI 4140 steel; Bardiameter; Statistical Analysis.

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1361 Observations about the Principal Components Analysis and Data Clustering Techniques in the Study of Medical Data

Authors: Cristina G. Dascâlu, Corina Dima Cozma, Elena Carmen Cotrutz

Abstract:

The medical data statistical analysis often requires the using of some special techniques, because of the particularities of these data. The principal components analysis and the data clustering are two statistical methods for data mining very useful in the medical field, the first one as a method to decrease the number of studied parameters, and the second one as a method to analyze the connections between diagnosis and the data about the patient-s condition. In this paper we investigate the implications obtained from a specific data analysis technique: the data clustering preceded by a selection of the most relevant parameters, made using the principal components analysis. Our assumption was that, using the principal components analysis before data clustering - in order to select and to classify only the most relevant parameters – the accuracy of clustering is improved, but the practical results showed the opposite fact: the clustering accuracy decreases, with a percentage approximately equal with the percentage of information loss reported by the principal components analysis.

Keywords: Data clustering, medical data, principal components analysis.

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1360 Investigating Real Ship Accidents with Descriptive Analysis in Turkey

Authors: İsmail Karaca, Ömer Söner

Abstract:

The use of advanced methods has been increasing day by day in the maritime sector, which is one of the sectors least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is aimed to minimize accidents, especially by using advanced methods in the investigation of marine accidents. This research aimed to conduct an exploratory statistical analysis of particular ship accidents in the Transport Safety Investigation Center of Turkey database. 46 ship accidents, which occurred between 2010-2018, have been selected from the database. In addition to the availability of a reliable and comprehensive database, taking advantage of the robust statistical models for investigation is critical to improving the safety of ships. Thus, descriptive analysis has been used in the research to identify causes and conditional factors related to different types of ship accidents. The research outcomes underline the fact that environmental factors and day and night ratio have great influence on ship safety.

Keywords: Descriptive analysis, maritime industry, maritime safety, marine accident analysis.

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1359 Optimization of the Nutrient Supplients for Cellulase Production with the Basal Medium Palm Oil Mill Effluent

Authors: Rashid S S, Alam M Z, Karim M I A, Salleh, M H

Abstract:

A statistical optimization was studied to design a media composition to produce optimum cellulolytic enzyme where palm oil mill effluent (POME) as a basal medium and filamentous fungus, Trichoderma reesei RUT-C30 were used in the liquid state bioconversion(LSB). 2% (w/v) total suspended solid, TSS, of the POME supplemented with 1% (w/v) cellulose, 0.5%(w/v) peptone and 0.02% (v/v) Tween 80 was estimated to produce the optimum CMCase activity of 18.53 U/ml through the statistical analysis followed by the faced centered central composite design(FCCCD). The probability values of cellulose (<0.0011) and peptone (0.0021) indicated the significant effect on the production of cellulase with the determination coefficient (R2) of 0.995.

Keywords: Face centered central composite design (FCCCD), Liquid state bioconversion (LSB), Palm oil mill effluent, Trichoderma reesei RUT C-30.

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1358 ORank: An Ontology Based System for Ranking Documents

Authors: Mehrnoush Shamsfard, Azadeh Nematzadeh, Sarah Motiee

Abstract:

Increasing growth of information volume in the internet causes an increasing need to develop new (semi)automatic methods for retrieval of documents and ranking them according to their relevance to the user query. In this paper, after a brief review on ranking models, a new ontology based approach for ranking HTML documents is proposed and evaluated in various circumstances. Our approach is a combination of conceptual, statistical and linguistic methods. This combination reserves the precision of ranking without loosing the speed. Our approach exploits natural language processing techniques for extracting phrases and stemming words. Then an ontology based conceptual method will be used to annotate documents and expand the query. To expand a query the spread activation algorithm is improved so that the expansion can be done in various aspects. The annotated documents and the expanded query will be processed to compute the relevance degree exploiting statistical methods. The outstanding features of our approach are (1) combining conceptual, statistical and linguistic features of documents, (2) expanding the query with its related concepts before comparing to documents, (3) extracting and using both words and phrases to compute relevance degree, (4) improving the spread activation algorithm to do the expansion based on weighted combination of different conceptual relationships and (5) allowing variable document vector dimensions. A ranking system called ORank is developed to implement and test the proposed model. The test results will be included at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Document ranking, Ontology, Spread activation algorithm, Annotation.

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1357 The Impact of Environmental Dynamism on Strategic Outsourcing Success

Authors: Mohamad Ghozali Hassan, Abdul Aziz Othman, Mohd Azril Ismail

Abstract:

Adapting quickly to environmental dynamism is essential for an organization to develop outsourcing strategic and management in order to sustain competitive advantage. This research used the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLSSEM) tool to investigate the factors of environmental dynamism impact on the strategic outsourcing success among electrical and electronic manufacturing industries in outsourcing management. Statistical results confirm that the inclusion of customer demand, technological change, and competition level as a new combination concept of environmental dynamism, has positive effects on outsourcing success. Additionally, this research demonstrates the acceptability of PLS-SEM as a statistical analysis to furnish a better understanding of environmental dynamism in outsourcing management in Malaysia. A practical finding contributes to academics and practitioners in the field of outsourcing management.

Keywords: Environmental Dynamism, Customer Demand, Technological Change, Competition Level, Outsourcing Success.

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1356 Adverse Impacts of Poor Wastewater Management Practices on Water Quality in Gebeng Industrial Area, Pahang, Malaysia

Authors: I. M. Sujaul, M. A. Sobahan, A. A. Edriyana, F. M. Yahaya, R. M. Yunus

Abstract:

This study was carried out to investigate the adverse effect of industrial wastewater on surface water quality in Gebeng industrial estate, Pahang, Malaysia. Surface water was collected from six sampling stations. Physicochemical parameters were characterized based on in-situ and ex-situ analysis according to standard methods by American Public Health Association (APHA). Selected heavy metals were determined by using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP MS). The results revealed that the concentration of heavy metals such as Pb, Cu, Cd, Cr and Hg were high in samples. The results also showed that the value of Pb and Hg were higher in the wet season in comparison to dry season. According to Malaysia National Water Quality Standard (NWQS) and Water Quality Index (WQI) all the sampling station were categorized as class IV (highly polluted). The present study revealed that the adverse effects of careless disposal of wastes and directly discharge of effluents affected on surface water quality. Therefore, the authorities should implement the laws to ensure the proper practices of wastewater management for environmental sustainability around the study area.

Keywords: Gebeng, heavy metals, waste water, water quality index.

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1355 A Relationship Extraction Method from Literary Fiction Considering Korean Linguistic Features

Authors: Hee-Jeong Ahn, Kee-Won Kim, Seung-Hoon Kim

Abstract:

The knowledge of the relationship between characters can help readers to understand the overall story or plot of the literary fiction. In this paper, we present a method for extracting the specific relationship between characters from a Korean literary fiction. Generally, methods for extracting relationships between characters in text are statistical or computational methods based on the sentence distance between characters without considering Korean linguistic features. Furthermore, it is difficult to extract the relationship with direction from text, such as one-sided love, because they consider only the weight of relationship, without considering the direction of the relationship. Therefore, in order to identify specific relationships between characters, we propose a statistical method considering linguistic features, such as syntactic patterns and speech verbs in Korean. The result of our method is represented by a weighted directed graph of the relationship between the characters. Furthermore, we expect that proposed method could be applied to the relationship analysis between characters of other content like movie or TV drama.

Keywords: Data mining, Korean linguistic feature, literary fiction, relationship extraction.

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1354 Estimation of PM2.5 Emissions and Source Apportionment Using Receptor and Dispersion Models

Authors: Swetha Priya Darshini Thammadi, Sateesh Kumar Pisini, Sanjay Kumar Shukla

Abstract:

Source apportionment using Dispersion model depends primarily on the quality of Emission Inventory. In the present study, a CMB receptor model has been used to identify the sources of PM2.5, while the AERMOD dispersion model has been used to account for missing sources of PM2.5 in the Emission Inventory. A statistical approach has been developed to quantify the missing sources not considered in the Emission Inventory. The inventory of each grid was improved by adjusting emissions based on road lengths and deficit in measured and modelled concentrations. The results showed that in CMB analyses, fugitive sources - soil and road dust - contribute significantly to ambient PM2.5 pollution. As a result, AERMOD significantly underestimated the ambient air concentration at most locations. The revised Emission Inventory showed a significant improvement in AERMOD performance which is evident through statistical tests.

Keywords: CMB, GIS, AERMOD, PM2.5, fugitive, emission inventory.

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1353 A Stochastic Diffusion Process Based on the Two-Parameters Weibull Density Function

Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

Abstract:

Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: Diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion equation, trends functions, bi-parameters Weibull density function.

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1352 Statistical Models of Network Traffic

Authors: Barath Kumar, Oliver Niggemann, Juergen Jasperneite

Abstract:

Model-based approaches have been applied successfully to a wide range of tasks such as specification, simulation, testing, and diagnosis. But one bottleneck often prevents the introduction of these ideas: Manual modeling is a non-trivial, time-consuming task. Automatically deriving models by observing and analyzing running systems is one possible way to amend this bottleneck. To derive a model automatically, some a-priori knowledge about the model structure–i.e. about the system–must exist. Such a model formalism would be used as follows: (i) By observing the network traffic, a model of the long-term system behavior could be generated automatically, (ii) Test vectors can be generated from the model, (iii) While the system is running, the model could be used to diagnose non-normal system behavior. The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a model formalism called 'probabilistic regression automaton' suitable for the tasks mentioned above.

Keywords: Model-based approach, Probabilistic regression automata, Statistical models and Timed automata.

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1351 Influence of City Environment to the Regional Development in Baltic Countries

Authors: Ilze Stokmane

Abstract:

Economic processes underway in the country directly and indirectly affect the welfare of the people and the social environment, starting with job security and having a direct impact on the qualitative and safe living environment.

The paper describes existing situation and gives analysis of the regional development policy determination and implementation in the all three Baltic countries. According statistical indicators there are differences between implementation of the regional development activities between all Baltic countries and in regions of inside each country.

It is analyzed more detail differences between regions in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia according possibility to evaluate success of development processes in regions of the Baltic countries. The descriptive analyze of documents, statistical indicators at national level and regional level were used in the research.

Keywords: Baltic countries, city environment, regional development, urban areas.

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1350 Studying the Causes and Affecting Factors of Motorcycle Accidents A Case Study on the Road Accidents in Zanjan Province (IRAN) - 2007

Authors: A. Beheshti, S. Salkhordeh, H. Amini

Abstract:

Based on statistics released by Islamic Republic of Iran Police (IRIP), from among the total 9555 motorcycle accidents that happened in 2007, 857 riders died and 11219 one got injured. If we also consider the death toll and injuries of other vehicles' accidents resulted from traffic violation by motorcycle riders, then paying attention to the motorcycle accidents seems to be very necessary. Therefore, in this study we tried to investigate the traits and issues related to production, application, and training, along with causes of motorcycle accidents from 4 perspectives of road, human, environment and vehicle and also based on statistical and geographical analysis of accident-sheets prepared by Iran Road Patrol Department (IRPD). Unfamiliarity of riders with regulations and techniques of motorcycling, disuse of safety equipments, inefficiency of roads and design of junctions for safe trafficking of motorcycles and finally the lack of sufficient control of responsible organizations are among the major causes which lead to these accidents.

Keywords: Motorcycle, Motorcycle riders, Road accidents, Statistical analysis of accidents.

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1349 Text Summarization for Oil and Gas News Article

Authors: L. H. Chong, Y. Y. Chen

Abstract:

Information is increasing in volumes; companies are overloaded with information that they may lose track in getting the intended information. It is a time consuming task to scan through each of the lengthy document. A shorter version of the document which contains only the gist information is more favourable for most information seekers. Therefore, in this paper, we implement a text summarization system to produce a summary that contains gist information of oil and gas news articles. The summarization is intended to provide important information for oil and gas companies to monitor their competitor-s behaviour in enhancing them in formulating business strategies. The system integrated statistical approach with three underlying concepts: keyword occurrences, title of the news article and location of the sentence. The generated summaries were compared with human generated summaries from an oil and gas company. Precision and recall ratio are used to evaluate the accuracy of the generated summary. Based on the experimental results, the system is able to produce an effective summary with the average recall value of 83% at the compression rate of 25%.

Keywords: Information retrieval, text summarization, statistical approach.

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1348 Comparison of Neural Network and Logistic Regression Methods to Predict Xerostomia after Radiotherapy

Authors: Hui-Min Ting, Tsair-Fwu Lee, Ming-Yuan Cho, Pei-Ju Chao, Chun-Ming Chang, Long-Chang Chen, Fu-Min Fang

Abstract:

To evaluate the ability to predict xerostomia after radiotherapy, we constructed and compared neural network and logistic regression models. In this study, 61 patients who completed a questionnaire about their quality of life (QoL) before and after a full course of radiation therapy were included. Based on this questionnaire, some statistical data about the condition of the patients’ salivary glands were obtained, and these subjects were included as the inputs of the neural network and logistic regression models in order to predict the probability of xerostomia. Seven variables were then selected from the statistical data according to Cramer’s V and point-biserial correlation values and were trained by each model to obtain the respective outputs which were 0.88 and 0.89 for AUC, 9.20 and 7.65 for SSE, and 13.7% and 19.0% for MAPE, respectively. These parameters demonstrate that both neural network and logistic regression methods are effective for predicting conditions of parotid glands.

Keywords: NPC, ANN, logistic regression, xerostomia.

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1347 The Tourist Satisfaction on Brand Identity Design of Creative Agriculture Community Enterprise, Bang Khonthi District, Samut Songkhram Province

Authors: Panupong Chanplin, Kathaleeya Chanda., Wilailuk Mepracha

Abstract:

The aims of this research were twofold: 1) to brand identity design of Creative Agriculture Community Enterprise, Bang Khonthi District, Samut Songkhram Province and 2) to study the level of tourist satisfaction towards brand identity design of Creative Agriculture Community Enterprise, Bang Khonthi District, Samut Songkhram Province. tourist satisfaction was measured using six criteria: clear brand positioning, likeable brand personality, memorable logo, attractive color palette, professional typography and on-brand supporting graphics. The researcher utilized a probability sampling method via simple random sampling. The sample consisted of 30 tourists in the Creative Agriculture Community Enterprise. Statistics utilized for data analysis were percentage, mean, and standard deviation. The results suggest that tourist had high levels of satisfaction towards all six criteria of the brand identity design that was designed to target them. This study proposes that specifically brand identity designed of Creative Agriculture Community Enterprise could also be implemented with other real media already available on the market.

Keywords: Satisfaction, brand identity, logo, creative agriculture community enterprise.

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1346 A Preliminary Study on the Suitability of Data Driven Approach for Continuous Water Level Modeling

Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

Abstract:

Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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1345 Determining the Gender of Korean Names for Pronoun Generation

Authors: Seong-Bae Park, Hee-Geun Yoon

Abstract:

It is an important task in Korean-English machine translation to classify the gender of names correctly. When a sentence is composed of two or more clauses and only one subject is given as a proper noun, it is important to find the gender of the proper noun for correct translation of the sentence. This is because a singular pronoun has a gender in English while it does not in Korean. Thus, in Korean-English machine translation, the gender of a proper noun should be determined. More generally, this task can be expanded into the classification of the general Korean names. This paper proposes a statistical method for this problem. By considering a name as just a sequence of syllables, it is possible to get a statistics for each name from a collection of names. An evaluation of the proposed method yields the improvement in accuracy over the simple looking-up of the collection. While the accuracy of the looking-up method is 64.11%, that of the proposed method is 81.49%. This implies that the proposed method is more plausible for the gender classification of the Korean names.

Keywords: machine translation, natural language processing, gender of proper nouns, statistical method

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1344 Studying the Trend of Drought in Fars Province (Iran) using SPI Method

Authors: A. Gandomkar, R. Dehghani

Abstract:

Drought is natural and climate phenomenon and in fact server as a part of climate in an area and also it has significant environmental, social ,and economic consequences .drought differs from the other natural disasters from this viewpoint that it s a creeping phenomenon meaning that it progresses little and its difficult to determine the time of its onset and termination .most of the drought definitions are on based on precipitation shortage and consequently ,the shortage of water some of the activities related to the water such as agriculture In this research ,drought condition in Fars province was evacuated using SPI method within a 37 year – statistical –period(1974-2010)and maps related to the drought were prepared for each of the statistical period years. According to the results obtained from this research, the years 1974, 1976, 1975, 1982 with SPI (-1.03, 0.39, -1.05, -1.49) respectively, were the doughiest years and 1996,1997,2000 with SPI (2.49, 1.49, 1.46, 1.04) respectively, the most humid within the studying time series and the rest are in more normal conditions in the term of drought.

Keywords: Fars Province, Drought, SPI Method, Time Series

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1343 Metrology-Inspired Methods to Assess the Biases of Artificial Intelligence Systems

Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

Abstract:

With the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, inter-laboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, bias impact assessment, bias measurement.

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1342 Consumption Pattern and Dietary Practices of Pregnant Women in Odeda Local Government Area of Ogun State

Authors: Ademuyiwa, M. O., Sanni, S. A.

Abstract:

The importance of maternal nutritional practices during pregnancy cannot be overemphasized. This paper assessed the consumption pattern and dietary practices of 50 pregnant women selected using purposive sampling technique from three health care centres (Primary Health Care Centre, Obantoko; Primary Health Care Centre Alabata; and the General Hospital, Odeda) in Odeda Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Structured questionnaire was used to elicit information on socioeconomic status, consumption pattern and dietary practices. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS, 17). The results indicated that about 58% of the pregnant women were below the age of 30 while 42% were ages 28-40 years. Only 16% had tertiary education while (38%) had secondary education, 52% earn income through petty trading. On food intake, 52% got their energy source from rice on a daily basis, followed by pap (38%) and eko (34%). For protein intake, 36% consumed bean cake on a daily basis while 66% consumed moinmoin 2-3 times a week. Orange (48%) and Green Leafy vegetable (40%) accounted for the mostly consumed fruit and vegetable on daily basis. In terms of animal origin, fish (76%), meat (58%) and eggs (30%) were consumed daily, while chicken and snail were consumed occasionally by 54% and 42%, respectively. Forty-six percent (46%) of the pregnant women eat more than three times daily; while 60% of the women eat outside their homes with 42% respondents eat out lunch and only two percent least eaten out dinner. It is important to increase in awareness campaign to sensitize the pregnant women on the importance of good nutrition especially fruits, vegetables and dairy products. 

Keywords: Consumption Pattern, Dietary Practices, Pregnant, Women, Nigeria.

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1341 Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model

Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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1340 Statistical Modeling of Mobile Fading Channels Based on Triply Stochastic Filtered Marked Poisson Point Processes

Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.

Keywords: Doppler shift, filtered Poisson process, generalized Clark’s model, non-isotropic scattering, partially developed scattering, Rician distribution.

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1339 Autonomous Robots- Visual Perception in Underground Terrains Using Statistical Region Merging

Authors: Omowunmi E. Isafiade, Isaac O. Osunmakinde, Antoine B. Bagula

Abstract:

Robots- visual perception is a field that is gaining increasing attention from researchers. This is partly due to emerging trends in the commercial availability of 3D scanning systems or devices that produce a high information accuracy level for a variety of applications. In the history of mining, the mortality rate of mine workers has been alarming and robots exhibit a great deal of potentials to tackle safety issues in mines. However, an effective vision system is crucial to safe autonomous navigation in underground terrains. This work investigates robots- perception in underground terrains (mines and tunnels) using statistical region merging (SRM) model. SRM reconstructs the main structural components of an imagery by a simple but effective statistical analysis. An investigation is conducted on different regions of the mine, such as the shaft, stope and gallery, using publicly available mine frames, with a stream of locally captured mine images. An investigation is also conducted on a stream of underground tunnel image frames, using the XBOX Kinect 3D sensors. The Kinect sensors produce streams of red, green and blue (RGB) and depth images of 640 x 480 resolution at 30 frames per second. Integrating the depth information to drivability gives a strong cue to the analysis, which detects 3D results augmenting drivable and non-drivable regions in 2D. The results of the 2D and 3D experiment with different terrains, mines and tunnels, together with the qualitative and quantitative evaluation, reveal that a good drivable region can be detected in dynamic underground terrains.

Keywords: Drivable Region Detection, Kinect Sensor, Robots' Perception, SRM, Underground Terrains.

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1338 A Cost Optimization Model for the Construction of Bored Piles

Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

Adequate management, control, and optimization of cost is an essential element for a successful construction project. A multiple linear regression optimization model was formulated to address the problem of costs associated with pile construction operations. A total of 32 PVC-reinforced concrete piles with diameter of 300 mm, 5.4 m long, were studied during the construction. The soil upon which the piles were installed was mostly silty sand, and completely submerged in water at Bonny, Nigeria. The piles are friction piles installed by boring method, using a piling auger. The volumes of soil removed, the weight of reinforcement cage installed, and volumes of fresh concrete poured into the PVC void were determined. The cost of constructing each pile based on the calculated quantities was determined. A model was derived and subjected to statistical tests using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The model turned out to be adequate, fit, and have a high predictive accuracy with an R2 value of 0.833.

Keywords: Cost optimization modelling, multiple linear models, pile construction, regression models.

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1337 A New Performance Characterization of Transient Analysis Method

Authors: José Peralta, Gabriela Peretti, Eduardo Romero, Carlos Marqués

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new performance characterization for the test strategy intended for second order filters denominated Transient Analysis Method (TRAM). We evaluate the ability of the addressed test strategy for detecting deviation faults under simultaneous statistical fluctuation of the non-faulty parameters. For this purpose, we use Monte Carlo simulations and a fault model that considers as faulty only one component of the filter under test while the others components adopt random values (within their tolerance band) obtained from their statistical distributions. The new data reported here show (for the filters under study) the presence of hard-to-test components and relatively low fault coverage values for small deviation faults. These results suggest that the fault coverage value obtained using only nominal values for the non-faulty components (the traditional evaluation of TRAM) seem to be a poor predictor of the test performance.

Keywords: testing, fault analysis, analog filter test, parametric faults detection.

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1336 Fault Detection of Drinking Water Treatment Process Using PCA and Hotelling's T2 Chart

Authors: Joval P George, Dr. Zheng Chen, Philip Shaw

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Hotelling-s T2 Chart, using data collected from a drinking water treatment process. PCA is applied primarily for the dimensional reduction of the collected data. The Hotelling-s T2 control chart was used for the fault detection of the process. The data was taken from a United Utilities Multistage Water Treatment Works downloaded from an Integrated Program Management (IPM) dashboard system. The analysis of the results show that Multivariate Statistical Process Control (MSPC) techniques such as PCA, and control charts such as Hotelling-s T2, can be effectively applied for the early fault detection of continuous multivariable processes such as Drinking Water Treatment. The software package SIMCA-P was used to develop the MSPC models and Hotelling-s T2 Chart from the collected data.

Keywords: Principal component analysis, hotelling's t2 chart, multivariate statistical process control, drinking water treatment.

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1335 A Usability Testing Approach to Evaluate User-Interfaces in Business Administration

Authors: Salaheddin Odeh, Ibrahim O. Adwan

Abstract:

This interdisciplinary study is an investigation to evaluate user-interfaces in business administration. The study is going to be implemented on two computerized business administration systems with two distinctive user-interfaces, so that differences between the two systems can be determined. Both systems, a commercial and a prototype developed for the purpose of this study, deal with ordering of supplies, tendering procedures, issuing purchase orders, controlling the movement of the stocks against their actual balances on the shelves and editing them on their tabulations. In the second suggested system, modern computer graphics and multimedia issues were taken into consideration to cover the drawbacks of the first system. To highlight differences between the two investigated systems regarding some chosen standard quality criteria, the study employs various statistical techniques and methods to evaluate the users- interaction with both systems. The study variables are divided into two divisions: independent representing the interfaces of the two systems, and dependent embracing efficiency, effectiveness, satisfaction, error rate etc.

Keywords: Evaluation and usability testing, software prototyping, statistical methods, user-interface design.

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1334 Space Telemetry Anomaly Detection Based on Statistical PCA Algorithm

Authors: B. Nassar, W. Hussein, M. Mokhtar

Abstract:

The critical concern of satellite operations is to ensure the health and safety of satellites. The worst case in this perspective is probably the loss of a mission, but the more common interruption of satellite functionality can result in compromised mission objectives. All the data acquiring from the spacecraft are known as Telemetry (TM), which contains the wealth information related to the health of all its subsystems. Each single item of information is contained in a telemetry parameter, which represents a time-variant property (i.e. a status or a measurement) to be checked. As a consequence, there is a continuous improvement of TM monitoring systems to reduce the time required to respond to changes in a satellite's state of health. A fast conception of the current state of the satellite is thus very important to respond to occurring failures. Statistical multivariate latent techniques are one of the vital learning tools that are used to tackle the problem above coherently. Information extraction from such rich data sources using advanced statistical methodologies is a challenging task due to the massive volume of data. To solve this problem, in this paper, we present a proposed unsupervised learning algorithm based on Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique. The algorithm is particularly applied on an actual remote sensing spacecraft. Data from the Attitude Determination and Control System (ADCS) was acquired under two operation conditions: normal and faulty states. The models were built and tested under these conditions, and the results show that the algorithm could successfully differentiate between these operations conditions. Furthermore, the algorithm provides competent information in prediction as well as adding more insight and physical interpretation to the ADCS operation.

Keywords: Space telemetry monitoring, multivariate analysis, PCA algorithm, space operations.

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