Search results for: prediction error bias correction.

Authors: Arnaud Nougues

Abstract:

This paper describes a two-stage methodology derived from IMC (Internal Model Control) for tuning a PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controller for levels or other integrating processes in an industrial environment. Focus is ease of use and implementation speed which are critical for an industrial application. Tuning can be done with minimum effort and without the need of time-consuming open-loop step tests on the plant. The first stage of the method applies to levels only: the vessel residence time is calculated from equipment dimensions and used to derive a set of preliminary PI (Proportional-Integral) settings with IMC. The second stage, re-tuning in closed-loop, applies to levels as well as other integrating processes: a tuning correction mechanism has been developed based on a series of closed-loop simulations with model errors. The tuning correction is done from a simple closed-loop step test and application of a generic correlation between observed overshoot and integral time correction. A spin-off of the method is that an estimate of the vessel residence time (levels) or open-loop process gain (other integrating process) is obtained from the closed-loop data.

Keywords: closed-loop model identification, IMC-PID tuning method, integrating process control, on-line PID tuning adaptation

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Authors: Insah Bhurtah, P. Clarel Catherine, K. M. Sunjiv Soyjaudah

Abstract:

The decoding of Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC) codes is operated over a redundant structure known as the bipartite graph, meaning that the full set of bit nodes is not absolutely necessary for decoder convergence. In 2008, Soyjaudah and Catherine designed a recovery algorithm for LDPC codes based on this assumption and showed that the error-correcting performance of their codes outperformed conventional LDPC Codes. In this work, the use of the recovery algorithm is further explored to test the performance of LDPC codes while the number of iterations is progressively increased. For experiments conducted with small blocklengths of up to 800 bits and number of iterations of up to 2000, the results interestingly demonstrate that contrary to conventional wisdom, the error-correcting performance keeps increasing with increasing number of iterations.

Keywords: Error-correcting codes, information theory, low-density parity-check codes, sum-product algorithm.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Prior research has not effectively investigated how the profitability of Chinese branches affect FDIs in China [1, 2], so this study for the first time incorporates realistic earnings information to systematically investigate effects of innovation, imitation, and profit factors of FDI diffusions from Taiwan to China. Our nonlinear least square (NLS) model, which incorporates earnings factors, forms a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) in numerical simulation programs. The model parameters are obtained through a genetic algorithms (GA) technique and then optimized with the collected data for the best accuracy. Particularly, Taiwanese regulatory FDI restrictions are also considered in our modified model to meet the realistic conditions. To validate the model-s effectiveness, this investigation compares the prediction accuracy of modified model with the conventional diffusion model, which does not take account of the profitability factors. The results clearly demonstrate the internal influence to be positive, as early FDI adopters- consistent praises of FDI attract potential firms to make the same move. The former erects a behavior model for the latter to imitate their foreign investment decision. Particularly, the results of modified diffusion models show that the earnings from Chinese branches are positively related to the internal influence. In general, the imitating tendency of potential consumers is substantially hindered by the losses in the Chinese branches, and these firms would invest less into China. The FDI inflow extension depends on earnings of Chinese branches, and companies will adjust their FDI strategies based on the returns. Since this research has proved that earning is an influential factor on FDI dynamics, our revised model explicitly performs superior in prediction ability than conventional diffusion model.

Keywords: diffusion model, genetic algorithms, nonlinear leastsquares (NLS) model, prediction error.

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Authors: Seyed Ali Jafari, Mohammad Ghomi Avili, Emad Benhelal

Abstract:

In this study, a mathematical model was proposed and the accuracy of this model was assessed to predict the growth of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and rhamnolipid production under nitrogen limiting (sodium nitrate) fed-batch fermentation. All of the parameters used in this model were achieved individually without using any data from the literature. The overall growth kinetic of the strain was evaluated using a dual-parallel substrate Monod equation which was described by several batch experimental data. Fed-batch data under different glycerol (as the sole carbon source, C/N=10) concentrations and feed flow rates were used to describe the proposed fed-batch model and other parameters. In order to verify the accuracy of the proposed model several verification experiments were performed in a vast range of initial glycerol concentrations. While the results showed an acceptable prediction for rhamnolipid production (less than 10% error), in case of biomass prediction the errors were less than 23%. It was also found that the rhamnolipid production by P. aeruginosa was more sensitive at low glycerol concentrations. Based on the findings of this work, it was concluded that the proposed model could effectively be employed for rhamnolipid production by this strain under fed-batch fermentation on up to 80 g l- 1 glycerol.

Keywords: Fed-batch culture, glycerol, kinetic parameters, modelling, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, rhamnolipid.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction.

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Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

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In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.

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Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

Abstract:

Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: Customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, Artificial Neural Networks, ANN.

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Authors: T. Hussain, A. Iqbal, M. W. Siddiqi

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to examine the validity of Wagner-s law and relationship between economic growth, population and export for Pakistan. The ARDL Bounds cointegration and ECM are utilized for long and short run equilibrium for the period of 1972-2007. Population has considerable role in an economy and exports are the main source to raise the GDP. With the increase in GDP, the government expenditures may or may not increase. The empirical results indicate that the Wagner-s Law does hold, as economic growth is significantly and positively correlated with government expenditures. However, population and exports have also significant and positive impact on government expenditures both in short and long run. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 70.82 percent within a year.

Keywords: ARDL Cointegration, Growth, Pakistan, Wagner's law.

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Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil

Abstract:

A method is presented for obtaining the error probability for block codes. The method is based on the eigenvalueeigenvector properties of the code correlation matrix. It is found that under a unary transformation and for an additive white Gaussian noise environment, the performance evaluation of a block code becomes a one-dimensional problem in which only one eigenvalue and its corresponding eigenvector are needed in the computation. The obtained error rate results show remarkable agreement between simulations and analysis.

Keywords: bit error rate, block codes, code correlation matrix, eigenstructure, soft-decision decoding, weight vector.

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Authors: Liping Jing, Michael K. Ng, Tieyong Zeng

Abstract:

Microarray data profiles gene expression on a whole genome scale, therefore, it provides a good way to study associations between gene expression and occurrence or progression of cancer. More and more researchers realized that microarray data is helpful to predict cancer sample. However, the high dimension of gene expressions is much larger than the sample size, which makes this task very difficult. Therefore, how to identify the significant genes causing cancer becomes emergency and also a hot and hard research topic. Many feature selection algorithms have been proposed in the past focusing on improving cancer predictive accuracy at the expense of ignoring the correlations between the features. In this work, a novel framework (named by SGS) is presented for stable gene selection and efficient cancer prediction . The proposed framework first performs clustering algorithm to find the gene groups where genes in each group have higher correlation coefficient, and then selects the significant genes in each group with Bayesian Lasso and important gene groups with group Lasso, and finally builds prediction model based on the shrinkage gene space with efficient classification algorithm (such as, SVM, 1NN, Regression and etc.). Experiment results on real world data show that the proposed framework often outperforms the existing feature selection and prediction methods, say SAM, IG and Lasso-type prediction model.

Keywords: Gene Selection, Cancer Prediction, Lasso, Clustering, Classification.

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

Abstract:

Detection of incipient abnormal events is important to improve safety and reliability of machine operations and reduce losses caused by failures. Improper set-ups or aligning of parts often leads to severe problems in many machines. The construction of prediction models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform machine maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of machine measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict two faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes genetic algorithms (GA) based variable selection, and we evaluate the predictive performance of several prediction methods using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic principal component analysis (SPPCA) yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: Prediction, operation monitoring, on-line data, nonlinear statistical methods, empirical model.

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Authors: T Panigrahi, G Panda, Mulgrew

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new approach for the performance analysis of adaptive filter with error saturation nonlinearity in the presence of impulsive noise. The performance analysis of adaptive filters includes both transient analysis which shows that how fast a filter learns and the steady-state analysis gives how well a filter learns. The recursive expressions for mean-square deviation(MSD) and excess mean-square error(EMSE) are derived based on weighted energy conservation arguments which provide the transient behavior of the adaptive algorithm. The steady-state analysis for co-related input regressor data is analyzed, so this approach leads to a new performance results without restricting the input regression data to be white.

Keywords: Error saturation nonlinearity, transient analysis, impulsive noise.

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Authors: K. Sreelakshmi, P. Ramakanthkumar

Abstract:

Predicting short term wind speed is essential in order to prevent systems in-action from the effects of strong winds. It also helps in using wind energy as an alternative source of energy, mainly for Electrical power generation. Wind speed prediction has applications in Military and civilian fields for air traffic control, rocket launch, ship navigation etc. The wind speed in near future depends on the values of other meteorological variables, such as atmospheric pressure, moisture content, humidity, rainfall etc. The values of these parameters are obtained from a nearest weather station and are used to train various forms of neural networks. The trained model of neural networks is validated using a similar set of data. The model is then used to predict the wind speed, using the same meteorological information. This paper reports an Artificial Neural Network model for short term wind speed prediction, which uses back propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Short term wind speed prediction, Neural networks, Back propagation.

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Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar, Khaled A. AL-Rumaih

Abstract:

This paper presents performance comparison of three estimation techniques used for peak load forecasting in power systems. The three optimum estimation techniques are, genetic algorithms (GA), least error squares (LS) and, least absolute value filtering (LAVF). The problem is formulated as an estimation problem. Different forecasting models are considered. Actual recorded data is used to perform the study. The performance of the above three optimal estimation techniques is examined. Advantages of each algorithms are reported and discussed.

Keywords: Forecasting, Least error squares, Least absolute Value, Genetic algorithms

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Authors: Kamran Turkoglu, Ugur Ozdemir, Melike Nikbay, Elbrous M. Jafarov

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In this paper, an automatic control system design based on Integral Squared Error (ISE) parameter optimization technique has been implemented on longitudinal flight dynamics of an UAV. It has been aimed to minimize the error function between the reference signal and the output of the plant. In the following parts, objective function has been defined with respect to error dynamics. An unconstrained optimization problem has been solved analytically by using necessary and sufficient conditions of optimality, optimum PID parameters have been obtained and implemented in control system dynamics.

Keywords: Optimum Design, KKT Conditions, UAV, Longitudinal Flight Dynamics, ISE Parameter Optimization.

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Authors: Dan Ohev Zion, Alon Cohen

Abstract:

In recent years, the presence of short-range millimeter-wave radar in civil application has increased significantly. Autonomous driving, security, 3D imaging and high data rate communication systems are a few examples. The next challenge is the integration inside small form-factor devices, such as smartphones (e.g. gesture recognition). The main challenge is implementation of a truly low-power, low-complexity high-resolution radar. The most popular approach is the Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) radar, with an analog multiplication front-end. In this paper, we present an approach for adaptive estimation and correction of impairments of such front-end, specifically implemented using the Six-Port Device (SPD) as the multiplier element. The proposed algorithm was simulated and implemented on a 60 GHz radar lab prototype.

Keywords: Radar, millimeter-wave, six-port, FMCW Radar, IQ mismatch.

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Authors: R. Ebrahimpour, M. Abbasnezhad Arabi, H. Babamiri Moghaddam

Abstract:

Combining classifiers is a useful method for solving complex problems in machine learning. The ECOC (Error Correcting Output Codes) method has been widely used for designing combining classifiers with an emphasis on the diversity of classifiers. In this paper, in contrast to the standard ECOC approach in which individual classifiers are chosen homogeneously, classifiers are selected according to the complexity of the corresponding binary problem. We use SATIMAGE database (containing 6 classes) for our experiments. The recognition error rate in our proposed method is %10.37 which indicates a considerable improvement in comparison with the conventional ECOC and stack generalization methods.

Keywords: Error correcting output code, combining classifiers, neural networks.

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Authors: Navneet Singh Deora, Aastha Deswal, H. N. Mishra

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Pasta is one of the most widely consumed food products around the world. Rapid determination of the moisture content in pasta will assist food processors to provide online quality control of pasta during large scale production. Rapid Fourier transform near-infrared method (FT-NIR) was developed for determining moisture content in pasta. A calibration set of 150 samples, a validation set of 30 samples and a prediction set of 25 samples of pasta were used. The diffuse reflection spectra of different types of pastas were measured by FT-NIR analyzer in the 4,000-12,000cm^-1 spectral range. Calibration and validation sets were designed for the conception and evaluation of the method adequacy in the range of moisture content 10 to 15 percent (w.b) of the pasta. The prediction models based on partial least squares (PLS) regression, were developed in the near-infrared. Conventional criteria such as the R², the root mean square errors of cross validation (RMSECV), root mean square errors of estimation (RMSEE) as well as the number of PLS factors were considered for the selection of three pre-processing (vector normalization, minimum-maximum normalization and multiplicative scatter correction) methods. Spectra of pasta sample were treated with different mathematic pre-treatments before being used to build models between the spectral information and moisture content. The moisture content in pasta predicted by FT-NIR methods had very good correlation with their values determined via traditional methods (R² = 0.983), which clearly indicated that FT-NIR methods could be used as an effective tool for rapid determination of moisture content in pasta. The best calibration model was developed with min-max normalization (MMN) spectral pre-processing (R² = 0.9775). The MMN pre-processing method was found most suitable and the maximum coefficient of determination (R²) value of 0.9875 was obtained for the calibration model developed.

Keywords: FT-NIR, Pasta, moisture determination.

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Authors: Shogo Kato, Daisuke Okamoto, Satoko Tsuru, Yoshinori Iizuka, Ryoko Shimono

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Healthcare safety has been perceived important. It is essential to prevent troubles in healthcare processes for healthcare safety. Trouble prevention is based on trouble prediction using accumulated knowledge on processes, troubles, and countermeasures. However, information on troubles has not been accumulated in hospitals in the appropriate structure, and it has not been utilized effectively to prevent troubles. In the previous study, however a detailed knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction was proposed, the knowledgebase for countermeasures was not involved. In this paper, we aim to propose the structure of the knowledgebase for countermeasures, in the knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction in healthcare process. We first design the structure of countermeasures and propose the knowledge representation form on countermeasures. Then, we evaluate the validity of the proposal, by applying it into an actual hospital.

Keywords: Trouble prevention, knowledge structure, structured knowledge, reusable knowledge.

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Authors: Seong-Ho Song, Ki-Seob Kim, Seop-Hyeong Park, Seon-Woo Lee

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In this paper, the data correction algorithm is suggested when the environmental air temperature varies. To correct the infrared data in this paper, the initial temperature or the initial infrared image data is used so that a target source system may not be necessary. The temperature data obtained from infrared detector show nonlinear property depending on the surface temperature. In order to handle this nonlinear property, Taylor series approach is adopted. It is shown that the proposed algorithm can reduce the influence of environmental temperature on the components in the board. The main advantage of this algorithm is to use only the initial temperature of the components on the board rather than using other reference device such as black body sources in order to get reference temperatures.

Keywords: Infrared camera, Temperature Data compensation, Environmental Ambient Temperature, Electric Component

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Authors: Shivakumar, G. S. Vijay, P. Srinivas Pai, B. R. Shrinivasa Rao

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In the present study, RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tex and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: Radial Basis Function networks, emissions, Performance parameters, Fuzzy c means.

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Authors: [email protected]

Abstract:

Breast cancer is one of the most common types in women. Early prediction of breast cancer helps physicians detect cancer in its early stages. Big cancer data need a very powerful tool to analyze and extract predictions. Machine learning and deep learning are two of the most efficient tools for predicting cancer based on textual data. In this study, we developed a fusion model of two machine learning and deep learning models. To obtain the final prediction, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), ensemble learning with hyper parameters optimization, and score-level fusion is used. Experiments are done on the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) dataset after balancing and grouping the class categories. Five different training scenarios are used, and the tests show that the designed fusion model improved the performance by 3.3% compared to the individual models.

Keywords: Machine learning, Deep learning, cancer prediction, breast cancer, LSTM, Score-Level Fusion.

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

Abstract:

This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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Authors: Parit Kanjanavirojkul, Kiatwarakorn Keeratishananond, Prapun Suksompong

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We study the performance of compressed beamforming weights feedback technique in generalized triangular decomposition (GTD) based MIMO system. GTD is a beamforming technique that enjoys QoS flexibility. The technique, however, will perform at its optimum only when the full knowledge of channel state information (CSI) is available at the transmitter. This would be impossible in the real system, where there are channel estimation error and limited feedback. We suggest a way to implement the quantized beamforming weights feedback, which can significantly reduce the feedback data, on GTD-based MIMO system and investigate the performance of the system. Interestingly, we found that compressed beamforming weights feedback does not degrade the BER performance of the system at low input power, while the channel estimation error and quantization do. For comparison, GTD is more sensitive to compression and quantization, while SVD is more sensitive to the channel estimation error. We also explore the performance of GTDbased MU-MIMO system, and find that the BER performance starts to degrade largely at around -20 dB channel estimation error.

Keywords: MIMO, MU-MIMO, GTD, Imperfect CSI.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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Authors: Chutimon Thitipornvanid, Siripun Sanguansintukul

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Choosing the right metadata is a critical, as good information (metadata) attached to an image will facilitate its visibility from a pile of other images. The image-s value is enhanced not only by the quality of attached metadata but also by the technique of the search. This study proposes a technique that is simple but efficient to predict a single human image from a website using the basic image data and the embedded metadata of the image-s content appearing on web pages. The result is very encouraging with the prediction accuracy of 95%. This technique may become a great assist to librarians, researchers and many others for automatically and efficiently identifying a set of human images out of a greater set of images.

Keywords: Metadata, Prediction, Multi-layer perceptron, Human facial image, Image mining.

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Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

Abstract:

A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled direct normal irradiance field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Resilient Propagation, Solar Radiation, Time Series Forecasting.

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Authors: Wenlong Liu, Yucheng Liu

Abstract:

This paper introduces the application of seismic wave method in earthquake prediction and early estimation. The advantages of the seismic wave method over the traditional earthquake prediction method are demonstrated. An example is presented in this study to show the accuracy and efficiency of using the seismic wave method in predicting a medium-sized earthquake swarm occurred in Wencheng, Zhejiang, China. By applying this method, correct predictions were made on the day after this earthquake swarm started and the day the maximum earthquake occurred, which provided scientific bases for governmental decision-making.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, earthquake swarm, seismicactivity method, seismic wave method, Wencheng earthquake

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Authors: Zainab Almukhtar, Adel Merabet

Abstract:

In this paper, a method for maximum power point tracking of a photovoltaic energy conversion system is presented. This method is based on using the difference between the power from the solar panel and an estimated power value to control the DC-DC converter of the photovoltaic system. The difference is continuously compared with a preset error permitted value. If the power difference is more than the error, the estimated power is multiplied by a factor and the operation is repeated until the difference is less or equal to the threshold error. The difference in power will be used to trigger a DC-DC boost converter in order to raise the voltage to where the maximum power point is achieved. The proposed method was experimentally verified through a PV energy conversion system driven by the OPAL-RT real time controller. The method was tested on varying radiation conditions and load requirements, and the Photovoltaic Panel was operated at its maximum power in different conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: Control system, power error, solar panel, MPPT.

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Authors: M. W. Siddiqi, M. Ilyas

Abstract:

Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main essential with which an economy is managed and run. While planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial estimates and targets set to be achieved. This revenue-gap distorts the whole system and the economy disturbing all the major macroeconomic indicators. This study is aimed to find out short and long term impact of revenue gap on budget deficit, debt burden and economic growth on the economy of Pakistan. For this purpose the study uses autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and error correction mechanism on three different models for the period 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that revenue gap has a short and long run relationship with economic growth and budget deficit. However, revenue gap has no impact on debt burden.

Keywords: Revenue Gap, Economic Growth, Budget Deficit, Debt Burden

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