Search results for: busy period.

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: E. Grochowska-Niedworok, K. Brukało, M. Kardas

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to analyze and evaluate the consumption of functional food by consumers by: age, sex, formal education level, place of residence and diagnosed diseases. The study employed an ad hoc questionnaire in a group of 300 inhabitants of Upper Silesia voivodship. Knowledge of functional food among the group covered in the study was far from satisfactory. The choice of functional food was of intuitive character. In addition, the group covered was more likely to choose pharmacotherapy instead of diet-related prevention then, which can be associated with presumption of too distant effects and a long period of treatment.

Keywords: Consumer choice, consumer knowledge, functional food, healthy lifestyle.

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Authors: M. Shuhaimi-Othman, Y. Nadzifah, A.K. Ahmad

Abstract:

Two freshwater fishes, Rasbora sumatrana (Cyprinidae) and Poecilia reticulata (guppy) (Poeciliidae) were exposed for a four-day period in the laboratory condition to a range of copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd) concentrations. Mortality was assessed and median lethal concentrations (LC50) were calculated. LC50 increased with decrease in mean exposure times for both metals. For R. sumatrana, LC50s for 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours for Cu were 54.2, 30.3, 18.9 and 5.6 μg/L and for Cd 1440.2, 459.3, 392.3 and 101.6 μg/L respectively. For P. reticulata, LC50s for 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours for Cu were 348.9, 145.4, 61.3 and 37.9 μg/L and for Cd 8205.6, 2827.1, 405.8 and 168.1 μg/L, respectively. Results indicated that the Cu was more toxic than Cd to both fishes (Cu>Cd) and R. sumatrana was more sensitive than P. reticulata to the metals.

Keywords: Acute, heavy metals, LT50, toxicity

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Authors: S. Anbu, N. Jaya

Abstract:

Nonlinearity is the inherent characteristics of all the industrial processes. The Classical control approach used for a generation often fails to show better results particularly for non-linear systems and in the systems, whose parameters changes over a period of time for a variety of reasons. Alternatively, adaptive control strategies provide very good performance. The Model Reference Adaptive Control based on Lyapunov stability analysis and classical PI control strategies are designed and evaluated for Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor, which shows appreciable dynamic nonlinear characteristics.

Keywords: Adaptive Control, CSTR, Lyapunov stability, MRAS, PID.

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Authors: Edward C. Smith III

Abstract:

Historical narration is an act that necessarily develops and deforms history. This “translation” is examined within the historical and political context of the 1930 Berlin film premiere of “All Quiet on the Western Front,” a film based on Erich Maria Remarque’s 1928 best-selling novel. Both the film and the novel appeared during an era in which life was conceived of as innately artistic. The emergence of this “aestheticization” of memory and history enabled conservative propaganda of the period to denounce all art that did not adhere conceptually to its political tenets, with “All Quiet” becoming yet another of its “victims.”

Keywords: Propaganda, Film, International Literature, Popular Culture.

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Authors: Pei-Hsing Huang, Wei-Ju Huang

Abstract:

Investment casting is commonly used in the production of metallic components with complex shapes, due to its high dimensional precision, good surface finish, and low cost. However, the process is cumbersome, and the period between trial casting and final production can be very long, thereby limiting business opportunities and competitiveness. In this study, we replaced conventional wax injection with stereolithography (SLA) 3D printing to speed up the trial process and reduce costs. We also used silicone molds to further reduce costs to avoid the high costs imposed by photosensitive resin.

Keywords: Investment casting, stereolithography, wax molding, 3D printing.

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Authors: S. Chauhan, T.P.K. Grewal, S.K. Aggarwal, V.K. Srivastava

Abstract:

Solution for the complete removal of carbon monoxide from the exhaust gases still poses a challenge to the researchers and this problem is still under development. Modeling for reduction of carbon monoxide is carried out using heterogeneous reaction using low cost non-noble metal based catalysts for the purpose of controlling emissions released to the atmosphere. A simple one-dimensional model was developed for the monolith using hopcalite catalyst. The converter is assumed to be an adiabatic monolith operating under warm-up conditions. The effect of inlet gas temperatures and catalyst loading on carbon monoxide reduction during cold start period in the converter is analysed.

Keywords: carbon monoxide, catalytic, modeling, monolith

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Authors: M. Saba, A. Iaaly, E. Carlier, N. Georges

Abstract:

This research focuses on assessing the ground water quality of Northern Lebanon affected by saline water intrusion. The chemical, physical and microbiological parameters were collected in various seasons spanning over the period of two years. Results were assessed using Geographic Information System (GIS) due to its visual capabilities in presenting the pollution extent in the studied region. Future projections of the excessive pumping were also simulated using GIS in order to assess the extent of the problem of saline intrusion in the near future.

Keywords: GIS, saline water, quality control, drinkable water quality standards, pumping.

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Authors: Alireza Azimi Sani

Abstract:

This paper discusses the design characteristics management accounting systems should have to be useful for strategic planning and control and provides brief introductions to strategic variance analysis, profit-linked performance measurement models and balanced scorecard. It shows two multi-period, multiproduct models are specified, can be related to Porter's strategy framework and cost and revenue drivers, and can be used to support strategic planning, control and cost management.

Keywords: Accounting, balanced scorecard, profit-linked, strategic management, variance analysis.

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Authors: G. E. Nadirova, B. Zh. Aktaulova

Abstract:

The main question of the research is - how did the Kazakhs manage to keep their religious thinking in the period of active propaganda of Soviet atheism, for seventy years of struggle against religion with the involvement of the scientific worldview as the primary means of proving the absence of the divine nature and materiality of the world?

Our hypothesis is that In case of Kazakhstan the conservative female religious consciousness seems to have been a factor that helped to preserve the “everyday” religiousness of Kazakhs, which was far from deep theological contents of Islam, but able to revive in a short time after the decennia of proclaimed atheism.

Keywords: Woman, Religious thinking, Kazakhstan, Soviet ideology, Rituals, Family.

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Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

Abstract:

In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: Corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period.

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Authors: Guanqun Shi, Xueqing Zhang

Abstract:

The frequent occurrence of failures in PPP projects which caused great loss has raised attention from the government as well as the concessionaire. PPPs are complex arrangements for its long operation period and multiple players. Many types of risks in PPP projects may cause the project fail. The insurance is an important tool to transfer the risks. Through a comparison and analysis of international government PPP guidelines and contracts as well as the case studies worldwide, we have identified eight main insurance principles, discussed thirteen insurance types in different stages. An overall procedure would be established to improve the practices in PPP projects.

Keywords: Public-private partnerships, insurance, contract, risk.

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Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

Abstract:

The causality between energy consumption and economic growth has been an important issue in the economic literature. This paper studies the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Mexico for the period of 1971-2011. In so doing, unit root and causality tests are applied. The results show that energy consumption and economic growth series are stationary and there is also a causality relationship running from economic growth to electricity consumption. Therefore, any energy conservation policy would have little or no impact at all on economic growth in México.

Keywords: Causality, economic growth, electricity consumption, Mexico.

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Authors: T. Ninouh, A. Rouili

Abstract:

The Romain paths or roads offer a very interesting archaeological material, because they allow us to understand the history of human settlement and are also factors that increase territorial identity. Roman roads are one of the hallmarks of the Roman empire, which extends to North Africa. The objective of this investigation is to attract the attention of researchers of the importance of Roman roads and paths, which are found in Algeria, according to the quality of the materials and techniques used in this period our history, and to encourage other decision makers to protect and enhance these routes because the current urbanization, intensive agricultural practices, or simply forgotten, decreases the sustainability of this important historical heritage.

Keywords: Romain paths, material Materials, Property, Valuation.

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Authors: Morteza Raei Dehaghi, Mojtaba Molaahmadi, Seyed Mohammad Mirhashemi

Abstract:

This study aimed to explore the relationship between energy consumption and value-added in Iran’s industry sector during the time period 1973-2011. Annual data related to energy consumption and value added in the industry sector were used. The results of the study revealed a positive relationship between energy consumption and value-added of the industry sector. Similarly, the results showed that there is one-way causality between energy consumption and value-added in the industry sector.

Keywords: Energy consumption, economic growth, industry sector.

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Authors: M. Ilyas, M. W. Siddiqi

Abstract:

This study employs auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration for long run and errorcorrection modeling (ECM) for short run analysis to examine the relationship between revenue gap and economic growth for Pakistan using annual time series data over the period 1980 to 2008. The short and long run results indicate that revenue gap is statistical significant and negatively effect economic growth. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 10.406 percent within a year.

Keywords: ARDL cointegration, Economic Growth, RevenueGap, Pakistan.

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Authors: Amir Hossein Ghaffari Nejad, Forouhar Ferdowsi, Reza Mashhadi

Abstract:

In the interest-free banking system of Iran, the savings of society are in the form of bank deposits, and banks using the Islamic contracts, allocate the resources to applicants for obtaining facilities and credit. In the meantime, the central bank, with the aim of introducing monetary policy, determines the maximum interest rate on bank deposits in terms of macroeconomic requirements. But in recent years, the country's economic constraints with the stagflation and the consequence of the institutional weaknesses of the financial market of Iran have resulted in massive disturbances in the balance sheet of the banking system, resulting in a period of mismatch maturity in the banks' assets and liabilities and the implementation of a Ponzi game. This issue caused determination of the interest rate in long-term bank deposit contracts to be associated with non-observance of the maximum rate set by the central bank. The result of this condition was in the allocation of new sources of equipment to meet past commitments towards the old depositors and, as a result, a significant part of the supply of equipment was leaked out of the facilitating cycle and credit crunch emerged. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors affecting the occurrence of non-confirmatory financial banking behavior using data from 19 public and private banks of Iran. For this purpose, the causes of this non-confirmatory behavior of banks have been investigated using the panel vector autoregression method (PVAR) for the period of 2007-2015. Granger's causality test results suggest that the return of parallel markets for bank deposits, non-performing loans and the high share of the ratio of facilities to banks' deposits are all a cause of the formation of non-confirmatory behavior. Also, according to the results of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, NPL and the ratio of facilities to deposits have the highest long-term effect and also have a high contribution to explaining the changes in banks' non-confirmatory behavior in determining the interest rate on deposits.

Keywords: Non-conformity behavior, Ponzi game, panel vector autoregression, nonperforming loans.

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Authors: Sui Yan Wong, Keat Ping Yeoh, Chi Wai Hui

Abstract:

In this study, supercritical steam is introduced to Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) in an attempt to further optimize energy recovery. Subcritical steam is commonly used in the CCPP, operating at maximum pressures around 150-160 bar. Supercritical steam is an alternative to increase heat recovery during vaporization period of water. The idea of improvement using supercritical steam is further examined with the use of exergy, pinch analysis and Aspen Plus simulation.

Keywords: Exergy, pinch, combined cycle power plant, CCPP, supercritical steam.

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Authors: Ellips Masehian, Davoud Sedighizadeh

Abstract:

This paper reviews the major contributions to the Motion Planning (MP) field throughout a 35-year period, from classic approaches to heuristic algorithms. Due to the NP-Hardness of the MP problem, heuristic methods have outperformed the classic approaches and have gained wide popularity. After surveying around 1400 papers in the field, the amount of existing works for each method is identified and classified. Especially, the history and applications of numerous heuristic methods in MP is investigated. The paper concludes with comparative tables and graphs demonstrating the frequency of each MP method's application, and so can be used as a guideline for MP researchers.

Keywords: Robot motion planning, Heuristic algorithms.

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Authors: Mirabbos Mirkamalov, Zavkiddin Mirtoshev

Abstract:

The M 1.6 class flare occurred on 6^th of September 2012. Our observations correspond to the active region NOAA 11560 with the heliographic coordinates N04W71. The event took place between 04:00 UT and 04:45 UT, and was close to the solar limb at the western region. The flare temperature correlates with flux peak, increases for a short period (between 04:08 UT and 04:12 UT), rises impulsively, attains a maximum value of about 17 MK at 04:12 UT and gradually decreases after peak value. Around the peak we observe significant emissions of X-ray sources. Flux profiles of the X-ray emission exhibit a progressively faster raise and decline as the higher energy channels are considered.

Keywords: Magnetic reconnection, solar atmosphere, solar flare, X-ray emission.

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang

Abstract:

This study examines whether the Taiwan’s public debt is sustainable utilizing an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. The empirical results show that Taiwan’s public debt appears as a nonlinear series and is stationary in regime 1 but not in regime 2. This result implies that while Taiwan’s public debt was mostly sustainable over the 1996 to 2013 period examined in the study, it may no longer be sustainable in the most recent two years as the public debt ratio has increased cumulatively to 3.618%.

Keywords: Nonlinearity, public debt, sustainability, threshold autoregressive model.

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Authors: Mara Magda Maftei

Abstract:

The article emphasizes the ideological commitment of the philosopher Emil Cioran. It presents firstly Cioran's works on the theme announced by the title, then the European context that determined the political option of Cioran and a brief analysis of his relationship with History during his French period. The anti- Semitism of Cioran was favored by his attachment to a few philosophers, but also by the European extremist and anti-Semitic context. The article seeks to demonstrate that the philosopher Cioran, known more for his pessimism and nihilism, maintained in time an obsessive relationship with History. His political philosophy is as important as his subjective philosophy, better known than the former.

Keywords: Cioran, French writings, History, Iron Guard

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Authors: Alina Badulescu, Mariana Vancea

Abstract:

The paper investigates the main issues concerning the activity of mergers and acquisitions in Romania in the period 2000- 2004. As in the first decade after the failure of the socialist economy the market of M&A was living its infancy based exclusively on privatization transactions, after 2000 the market entered in a stage of maturity. We are investigated both the registered evolutions in terms of number and value of transactions, and some sectoral issues, concerning the most important industries affected by the M&A process.

Keywords: Mergers and acquisitions, Romania, 2000-2010 decade.

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Authors: Ali Salehipour

Abstract:

After presenting the theory of calendar function of Iran-s cross-vaults especially “Niasar" cross-vault in recent years, there has been lots of doubts and uncertainty about this theory by astrologists and archaeologists. According to this theory “Niasar cross-vault and other cross-vaults of Iran has calendar function and are constructed in a way that sunrise and sunset can be seen from one of its openings in the beginning and middle of each season of year". But, mentioning historical documentaries we conclude here that the theory of calendar function of Iran-s cross-vaults does not have any strong basis and individual cross-vaults had only religious function in Iran.

Keywords: cross-vault, fire temple, Calendar function, Sassanid period

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Authors: Ali M. Jawarneh, Ahmad S. AL-Shyyab

Abstract:

The purpose of this work is to present the potential of solar energy in Zarqa region. The solar radiation along year 2009 was obtained from Pyranometer which measures the global radiation over horizontal surfaces. Solar data in several different forms, over period of 5 minutes, hour-by-hour, daily and monthly data radiation have been presented. Briefly, the yearly global solar radiation in Zarqa is 7297.5 MJ/m2 (2027 kWh/m²) and the average annual solar radiation per day is 20 MJ/m2 (5.5 Kwh/m2). More specifically, the average annual solar radiation per day is 12.9 MJ/m2 (3.57 Kwh/m2) in winter and 25 MJ/m2 (7 Kwh/m2) in summer.

Keywords: Solar Energy, Pyranometer, Zarqa Region

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Authors: Matěj Kuc

Abstract:

This paper compares different types of profitability measures of cooperative banks from two developed regions: the European Union and the United States of America together with Canada. We created balanced dataset of more than 200 cooperative banks covering 2011-2016 period. We made series of tests and run Random Effects estimation on panel data. We found that American and Canadian cooperatives are more profitable in terms of return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). There is no significant difference in net interest margin (NIM). Our results show that the North American cooperative banks accommodated better to the current market environment.

Keywords: Cooperative banking, panel data, profitability measures, random effects.

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Authors: M. Douak, Z. Aouachria

Abstract:

The aim of our study is to project an optimized wind turbine of Darrieus type. This type of wind turbine is characterized by a low starting torque in comparison with the Savonius rotor allowing them to operate for a period greater than wind speed. This led us to reconsider the Darrieus rotor to optimize a design which will increase its starting torque. The study of a system of monitoring and control of the angle of attack of blade profile, which allows an auto start to wind speeds as low as possible is presented for the straight blade of Darrieus turbine. The study continues to extend to other configurations namely those of parabolic type.

Keywords: Darrieus turbine, pitch angle, self-stating, wind energy.

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Authors: Mohsen Ebrahimi

Abstract:

In this paper, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is introduced and its advantages over ordinary steam injection is demonstrated. A simple simulation model is built and three scenarios of natural production, ordinary steam injection, and SAGD are compared in terms of their cumulative oil production and cumulative oil steam ratio. The results show that SAGD can significantly enhance oil production in quite a short period of time. However, since the distance between injection and production wells is short, the oil to steam ratio decreases gradually through time.

Keywords: Thermal recovery, Steam injection, SAGD, Enhanced oil recovery

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Authors: Dávid Csercsik, Péter Kádár

Abstract:

In the case of the proposed method, the problem is parallelized by considering multiple possible mode of operation profiles, which determine the range in which the generators operate in each period. For each of these profiles, the optimization is carried out independently, and the best resulting dispatch is chosen. For each such profile, the resulting problem is a quadratic programming (QP) problem with a potentially negative definite Q quadratic term, and constraints depending on the actual operation profile. In this paper we analyze the performance of available MATLAB optimization methods and solvers for the corresponding QP.

Keywords: Economic dispatch, optimization, quadratic programming, MATLAB.

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Authors: T. Pavic Kramaric, M. Kitic

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to analyze the market structure as well as the degree of concentration in insurance markets in new EU member states. The analysis was conducted using several most commonly used concentration indicators such as concentration ratio, Herfindahl-Hirschman index and entropy index. These indicators were calculated for the 2000-2010 period on the basis of total gross written premium as the most relevant indicator of market power in insurance markets. The results of the analysis showed that in all observed countries the level of concentration decreased, though with significantly different intensity. Yet, in some countries, the level of concentration remains very high.

Keywords: insurance market, concentration, new EU member states

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