Search results for: Transportation Network.

Authors: Wang Xu, Yao Yangyang, Lin Ying, Wang Zhenzhen

Abstract:

Intelligent Transportation System integrates various modern advanced technologies into the ground transportation system, and it will be the goal of urban transport system in the future because of its comprehensive effects. However, it also brings some problems, such as project performance assessment, fairness of benefiting groups, fund management, which are directly related to its operation and implementation. Wuhan has difficulties in organizing transportation because of its nature feature (river and lake), therefore, calling Service of Taxi plays an important role in transportation. This paper researches on calling Service of Taxi in Wuhan, based on quantitative and qualitative analysis. It analyzes its operations management systematically, including business model, finance, usage analysis and users evaluation. As for business model, it is that the government leads the operation at the initial stage, and the third part dominates the operation at the mature stage, which not only eases the pressure of the third part and benefits the spread of the calling service at the initial stage, but also alleviates financial pressure of government and improve the efficiency of the operation at the mature stage. As for finance, it draws that this service will bring heavy financial burden of equipments, but it will be alleviated in the future because of its spread. As for usage analysis, through data comparison, this service can bring some benefits for taxi drivers, and time and spatial distribution of usage have certain features. As for user evaluation, it analyzes using group and the reason why choosing it. At last, according to the analysis above, the paper puts forward the potentials, limitations, and future development strategies for it.

Keywords: Assessment, Calling service of taxi, Operations management, Strategies, Using groups.

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Authors: Su Hyung Jo, Ki Young Kim, Sang Ho Lee

Abstract:

Security management has changed from the management of security equipments and useful interface to manager. It analyzes the whole security conditions of network and preserves the network services from attacks. Secure router technology has security functions, such as intrusion detection, IPsec(IP Security) and access control, are applied to legacy router for secure networking. It controls an unauthorized router access and detects an illegal network intrusion. This paper relates to a security engine management of router based on a security policy, which is the definition of security function against a network intrusion. This paper explains the security policy and designs the structure of security engine management framework.

Keywords: Policy server, security engine, security management, security policy

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Authors: Himanshu Payal, Sachin Maheshwari, Pushpendra S. Bharti

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Electrical discharge machining (EDM), a non-conventional machining process, finds wide applications for shaping difficult-to-cut alloys. Process modeling of EDM is required to exploit the process to the fullest. Process modeling of EDM is a challenging task owing to involvement of so many electrical and non-electrical parameters. This work is an attempt to model the EDM process using artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments were carried out on die-sinking EDM taking Inconel 825 as work material. ANN modeling has been performed using experimental data. The prediction ability of trained network has been verified experimentally. Results indicate that ANN can predict the values of performance measures of EDM satisfactorily.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, EDM, metal removal rate, modeling, surface roughness.

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Authors: Fangfang Chen, Chunlu Wang, Zhihong Tian, Shuyuan Jin, Tianle Zhang

Abstract:

Attack graph is an integral part of modeling the overview of network security. System administrators use attack graphs to determine how vulnerable their systems are and to determine what security measures to deploy to defend their systems. Previous methods on AGG(attack graphs generation) are aiming at the whole network, which makes the process of AGG complex and non-scalable. In this paper, we propose a new approach which is simple and scalable to AGG by decomposing the whole network into atomic domains. Each atomic domain represents a host with a specific privilege. Then the process for AGG is achieved by communications among all the atomic domains. Our approach simplifies the process of design for the whole network, and can gives the attack graphs including each attack path for each host, and when the network changes we just carry on the operations of corresponding atomic domains which makes the process of AGG scalable.

Keywords: atomic domain, vulnerability, attack graphs, generation, computer security

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Authors: Zulkiflee M., Robiah Y., Nur Azman Abu, Shahrin S.

Abstract:

Malware is software which was invented and meant for doing harms on computers. Malware is becoming a significant threat in computer network nowadays. Malware attack is not just only involving financial lost but it can also cause fatal errors which may cost lives in some cases. As new Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) emerged, many people believe this protocol could solve most malware propagation issues due to its broader addressing scheme. As IPv6 is still new compares to native IPv4, some transition mechanisms have been introduced to promote smoother migration. Unfortunately, these transition mechanisms allow some malwares to propagate its attack from IPv4 to IPv6 network environment. In this paper, a proof of concept shall be presented in order to show that some existing IPv4 malware detection technique need to be improvised in order to detect malware attack in dual-stack network more efficiently. A testbed of dual-stack network environment has been deployed and some genuine malware have been released to observe their behaviors. The results between these different scenarios will be analyzed and discussed further in term of their behaviors and propagation methods. The results show that malware behave differently on IPv6 from the IPv4 network protocol on the dual-stack network environment. A new detection technique is called for in order to cater this problem in the near future.

Keywords: Dual-Stack, Malware, Worm, IPv6;IDS

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Authors: Narendra Singh Yadav, R.P.Yadav

Abstract:

Mobile ad hoc network is a collection of mobile nodes communicating through wireless channels without any existing network infrastructure or centralized administration. Because of the limited transmission range of wireless network interfaces, multiple "hops" may be needed to exchange data across the network. In order to facilitate communication within the network, a routing protocol is used to discover routes between nodes. The primary goal of such an ad hoc network routing protocol is correct and efficient route establishment between a pair of nodes so that messages may be delivered in a timely manner. Route construction should be done with a minimum of overhead and bandwidth consumption. This paper examines two routing protocols for mobile ad hoc networks– the Destination Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), the table- driven protocol and the Ad hoc On- Demand Distance Vector routing (AODV), an On –Demand protocol and evaluates both protocols based on packet delivery fraction, normalized routing load, average delay and throughput while varying number of nodes, speed and pause time.

Keywords: AODV, DSDV, MANET, relative performance

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Authors: Danielle Reichel, Antoine Druilhe, Tuan Dang

Abstract:

Traditional development of wireless sensor network mote is generally based on SoC1 platform. Such method of development faces three main drawbacks: lack of flexibility in terms of development due to low resource and rigid architecture of SoC; low capability of evolution and portability versus performance if specific micro-controller architecture features are used; and the rapid obsolescence of micro-controller comparing to the long lifetime of power plants or any industrial installations. To overcome these drawbacks, we have explored a new approach of development of wireless sensor network mote using a hybrid FPGA technology. The application of such approach is illustrated through the implementation of an innovative wireless sensor network protocol called OCARI.

Keywords: Hybrid FPGA, Embedded system, Mote, flexibility, durability, OCARI protocol, SoC, Wireless Sensor Network

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Authors: Tanapong Khomyat, Peerapong Uthansakul, Monthippa Uthansakul

Abstract:

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the Hybrid-MIMO Receiver Scheme (HMRS) in Cognitive Radio network (CR-network). We investigate the efficiency of the proposed scheme which the energy level and user number of primary user are varied according to the characteristic of CR-network. HMRS can allow users to transmit either Space-Time Block Code (STBC) or Spatial-Multiplexing (SM) streams simultaneously by using Successive Interference Cancellation (SIC) and Maximum Likelihood Detection (MLD). From simulation, the results indicate that the interference level effects to the performance of HMRS. Moreover, the exact closed-form capacity of the proposed scheme is derived and compared with STBC scheme.

Keywords: Hybrid-MIMO, Cognitive radio network (CRnetwork), Symbol Error Rate (SER), Successive interference cancellation (SIC), Maximum likelihood detection (MLD).

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Authors: Ahmed E. Hodaib, Samar F. Abdel Fattah

Abstract:

High-speed transportation is a growing concern. To develop high-speed rails and to increase high-speed efficiencies, the idea of Hyperloop was introduced. The challenge is to overcome the difficulties of managing friction and air-resistance which become substantial when vehicles approach high speeds. In this paper, we are presenting the methodologies of the capsule design which got a design concept innovation award at SpaceX competition in January, 2016. MATLAB scripts are written for the levitation and propulsion calculations and iterations. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to simulate the air flow around the capsule considering the effect of the axial-flow air compressor and the levitation cushion on the air flow. The design procedures of a single-sided linear induction motor are analyzed in detail and its geometric and magnetic parameters are determined. A structural design is introduced and Finite Element Method (FEM) is used to analyze the stresses in different parts. The configuration and the arrangement of the components are illustrated. Moreover, comments on manufacturing are made.

Keywords: High-speed transportation, Hyperloop, railways transportation, single-sided linear induction motor.

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Authors: Christian Endisch, Christoph Hackl, Dierk Schröder

Abstract:

This paper presents an exact pruning algorithm with adaptive pruning interval for general dynamic neural networks (GDNN). GDNNs are artificial neural networks with internal dynamics. All layers have feedback connections with time delays to the same and to all other layers. The structure of the plant is unknown, so the identification process is started with a larger network architecture than necessary. During parameter optimization with the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) algorithm irrelevant weights of the dynamic neural network are deleted in order to find a model for the plant as simple as possible. The weights to be pruned are found by direct evaluation of the training data within a sliding time window. The influence of pruning on the identification system depends on the network architecture at pruning time and the selected weight to be deleted. As the architecture of the model is changed drastically during the identification and pruning process, it is suggested to adapt the pruning interval online. Two system identification examples show the architecture selection ability of the proposed pruning approach.

Keywords: System identification, dynamic neural network, recurrentneural network, GDNN, optimization, Levenberg Marquardt, realtime recurrent learning, network pruning, quasi-online learning.

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Authors: Yongyoon Suh, Chulhyun Kim, Moon-soo Kim

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As increasing importance of symbiosis and cooperation among mobile communication industries, the mobile ecosystem has been especially highlighted in academia and practice. The structure of mobile ecosystem is quite complex and the ecological role of actors is important to understand that structure. In this respect, this study aims to explore structure of mobile ecosystem in the case of Korea using inter-industry network analysis. Then, the ecological roles in mobile ecosystem are identified using centrality measures as a result of network analysis: degree of centrality, closeness, and betweenness. The result shows that the manufacturing and service industries are separate. Also, the ecological roles of some actors are identified based on the characteristics of ecological terms: keystone, niche, and dominator. Based on the result of this paper, we expect that the policy makers can formulate the future of mobile industry and healthier mobile ecosystem can be constructed.

Keywords: Mobile ecosystem, structure, ecological roles, network analysis, network index.

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Authors: Seiichi Tamagawa, Takao Kawamura, Toshihiko Sasama, Kazunori Sugahara

Abstract:

Route bus system is one of fundamental transportation device for aged people and students, and has an important role in every province. However, passengers decrease year by year, therefore the authors have developed the system called "Bus-Net" as a web application to sustain the public transport. But there are two problems in Bus-Net. One is the user interface that does not consider the variety of the device, and the other is the path planning system that dose not correspond to the on-demand bus. Then, Bus-Net was improved to be able to utilize the variety of the device, and a new function corresponding to the on-demand bus was developed.

Keywords: Route Bus, Path Planning System, User Interface, Ondemandbus, Reservation system.

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Authors: Srikanth Pandurangi, Basheer Mohammed, Nezar Al Sayegh

Abstract:

In order to meet the increasing demand for housing care for Kuwaiti citizens, the government authorities in Kuwait are undertaking a series of projects in the form of new large cities, outside the current urban area. Al Mutlaa City located to the north-west of the Kuwait Metropolitan Area is one such project out of the 15 planned new cities. The city accommodates a wide variety of residential developments, employment opportunities, commercial, recreational, health care and institutional uses. This paper examines the application of comprehensive transportation demand modeling works undertaken in VISUM platform to understand the future intracity and intercity travel distribution patterns in Kuwait. The scope of models developed varied in levels of detail: strategic model update, sub-area models representing future demand of Al Mutlaa City, sub-area models built to estimate the demand in the residential neighborhoods of the city. This paper aims at offering model update framework that facilitates easy integration between sub-area models and strategic national models for unified traffic forecasts. This paper presents the transportation demand modeling results utilized in informing the planning of multi-modal transportation system for Al Mutlaa City. This paper also presents the household survey data collection efforts undertaken using GPS devices (first time in Kuwait) and notebook computer based digital survey forms for interviewing representative sample of citizens and residents. The survey results formed the basis of estimating trip generation rates and trip distribution coefficients used in the strategic base year model calibration and validation process.

Keywords: GPS based household surveys, transportation infrastructure, origin-destination trip matrices, traffic forecasts, transportation demand modeling, travel behavior patterns.

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Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie

Abstract:

In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: Fault prediction, Neural network, GM (1.5), Genetic algorithm, GBPGA.

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Authors: M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

The population structure of the Tor tambroides was investigated with morphometric data (i.e. morphormetric measurement and truss measurement). A morphometric analysis was conducted to compare specimens from three waterfalls: Sunanta, Nan Chong Fa and Wang Muang waterfalls at Khao Nan National Park, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Southern Thailand. The results of stepwise discriminant analysis on seven morphometric variables and 21 truss variables per individual were the same as from a neural network. Fish from three waterfalls were separated into three groups based on their morphometric measurements. The morphometric data shows that the nerual network model performed better than the stepwise discriminant analysis.

Keywords: Morphometric, Tor tambroides, Stepwise Discriminant Analysis , Neural Network Analysis.

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Authors: Earleen Jane Fuentes, Regeene Melarese Lim, Franklin Benjamin Tapia, Alexis Pantola

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Mobile Ad-hoc Network (MANET) is an infrastructure-less network of mobile devices, also known as nodes. These nodes heavily rely on each other’s resources such as memory, computing power, and energy. Thus, some nodes may become selective in forwarding packets so as to conserve their resources. These nodes are called misleading nodes. Several reputation-based techniques (e.g. CORE, CONFIDANT, LARS, SORI, OCEAN) and acknowledgment-based techniques (e.g. TWOACK, S-TWOACK, EAACK) have been proposed to detect such nodes. These techniques do not appropriately punish misleading nodes. Hence, this paper addresses the limitations of these techniques using a system called MINDRA.

Keywords: Mobile ad-hoc network, selfish nodes, reputation-based techniques, acknowledgment-based techniques.

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Authors: Mangesh R. Phate, V. H. Tatwawadi

Abstract:

This paper is intended to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based model of material removal rate (MRR) in the turning of ferrous and nonferrous material in a Indian small-scale industry. MRR of the formulated model was proved with the testing data and artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed for the analysis and prediction of the relationship between inputs and output parameters during the turning of ferrous and nonferrous materials. The input parameters of this model are operator, work-piece, cutting process, cutting tool, machine and the environment.

The ANN model consists of a three layered feedforward back propagation neural network. The network is trained with pairs of independent/dependent datasets generated when machining ferrous and nonferrous material. A very good performance of the neural network, in terms of contract with experimental data, was achieved. The model may be used for the testing and forecast of the complex relationship between dependent and the independent parameters in turning operations.

Keywords: Field data based model, Artificial neural network, Simulation, Convectional Turning, Material removal rate.

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Authors: Garima Gupta, Daya Gupta

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Virtually all existing networked system management tools use a Manager/Agent paradigm. That is, distributed agents are deployed on managed devices to collect local information and report it back to some management unit. Even those that use standard protocols such as SNMP fall into this model. Using standard protocol has the advantage of interoperability among devices from different vendors. However, it may not be able to provide customized information that is of interest to satisfy specific management needs. In this dissertation work, different approaches are used to collect information regarding the devices attached to a Local Area Network. An SNMP aware application is being developed that will manage the discovery procedure and will be used as data collector.

Keywords: ICMP Scanner, Network Discovery, NetworkManagement, SNMP Scanner.

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Authors: Masaki Ito, Hideyuki Tokuda, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

Abstract:

With the advancement of wireless sensor network technology, its practical utilization is becoming an important challange. This paper overviews my past environmental monitoring project, and discusses the process of starting the monitoring by classifying it into four steps. The steps to start environmental monitoring can be complicated, but not well discussed by researchers of wireless sensor network technology. This paper demonstrates our activity and challenges in each of the four steps to ease the process, and argues future challenges to enable quick start of environmental monitoring.

Keywords: Environmental Monitoring, Wireless Sensor Network, Field Experiment and Research Challenges.

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Authors: N. Bhalaji, A. R. Sivaramkrishnan, Sinchan Banerjee, V. Sundar, A. Shanmugam

Abstract:

Nodes in mobile Ad Hoc Network (MANET) do not rely on a central infrastructure but relay packets originated by other nodes. Mobile ad hoc networks can work properly only if the participating nodes collaborate in routing and forwarding. For individual nodes it might be advantageous not to collaborate, though. In this conceptual paper we propose a new approach based on relationship among the nodes which makes them to cooperate in an Adhoc environment. The trust unit is used to calculate the trust values of each node in the network. The calculated trust values are being used by the relationship estimator to determine the relationship status of nodes. The proposed enhanced protocol was compared with the standard DSR protocol and the results are analyzed using the network simulator-2.

Keywords: Reliable Routing, DSR, Grudger, Adhoc network.

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Authors: S. Anna Durai, E. Anna Saro

Abstract:

Image Compression using Artificial Neural Networks is a topic where research is being carried out in various directions towards achieving a generalized and economical network. Feedforward Networks using Back propagation Algorithm adopting the method of steepest descent for error minimization is popular and widely adopted and is directly applied to image compression. Various research works are directed towards achieving quick convergence of the network without loss of quality of the restored image. In general the images used for compression are of different types like dark image, high intensity image etc. When these images are compressed using Back-propagation Network, it takes longer time to converge. The reason for this is, the given image may contain a number of distinct gray levels with narrow difference with their neighborhood pixels. If the gray levels of the pixels in an image and their neighbors are mapped in such a way that the difference in the gray levels of the neighbors with the pixel is minimum, then compression ratio as well as the convergence of the network can be improved. To achieve this, a Cumulative distribution function is estimated for the image and it is used to map the image pixels. When the mapped image pixels are used, the Back-propagation Neural Network yields high compression ratio as well as it converges quickly.

Keywords: Back-propagation Neural Network, Cumulative Distribution Function, Correlation, Convergence.

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Authors: E. Praynlin, P. Latha

Abstract:

Software Effort Estimation is the process of estimating the effort required to develop software. By estimating the effort, the cost and schedule required to estimate the software can be determined. Accurate Estimate helps the developer to allocate the resource accordingly in order to avoid cost overrun and schedule overrun. Several methods are available in order to estimate the effort among which soft computing based method plays a prominent role. Software cost estimation deals with lot of uncertainty among all soft computing methods neural network is good in handling uncertainty. In this paper Radial Basis Function Network is compared with the back propagation network and the results are validated using six data sets and it is found that RBFN is best suitable to estimate the effort. The Results are validated using two tests the error test and the statistical test.

Keywords: Software cost estimation, Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN), Back propagation function network, Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE).

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Authors: H.Mohammadi Majd, M.Jalali Azizpour , Foad Saadi

Abstract:

In this paper back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) is employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. The input data for the artificial neural network are a set of parameters generated randomly (aspect ratio d/h, material properties, temperature and coefficient of friction). The output data are the coefficient of polynomial that fitted on barreling curves. Neural network was trained using barreling curves generated by finite element simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process

Keywords: Back-propagation artificial neural network(BPANN), prediction, upsetting

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Authors: E. Ahvar, M. Fathy

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Ad hoc networks are characterized by multihop wireless connectivity, frequently changing network topology and the need for efficient dynamic routing protocols. We compare the performance of three routing protocols for mobile ad hoc networks: Dynamic Source Routing (DSR), Ad Hoc On-Demand Distance Vector Routing (AODV), location-aided routing (LAR1).Our evaluation is based on energy consumption in mobile ad hoc networks. The performance differentials are analyzed using varying network load, mobility, and network size. We simulate protocols with GLOMOSIM simulator. Based on the observations, we make recommendations about when the performance of either protocol can be best.

Keywords: Ad hoc Network, energy consumption, Glomosim, routing protocols.

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Authors: Bhim Kumar Dahal

Abstract:

Transportation network development in the developing country is in rapid pace. The majority of the network belongs to railway and expressway which passes through diverse topography, landform and geological conditions despite the avoidance principle during route selection. Construction of such networks demand many low to high embankment which required improvement in the foundation soil. This paper is mainly focused on the various advanced ground improvement techniques used to improve the soft soil, modelling approach and its predictability for embankments construction. The ground improvement techniques can be broadly classified in to three groups i.e. densification group, drainage and consolidation group and reinforcement group which are discussed with some case studies.  Various methods were used in modelling of the embankments from simple 1-dimensional to complex 3-dimensional model using variety of constitutive models. However, the reliability of the predictions is not found systematically improved with the level of sophistication.  And sometimes the predictions are deviated more than 60% to the monitored value besides using same level of erudition. This deviation is found mainly due to the selection of constitutive model, assumptions made during different stages, deviation in the selection of model parameters and simplification during physical modelling of the ground condition. This deviation can be reduced by using optimization process, optimization tools and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters which will guide to select the appropriate model parameters.

Keywords: Embankment, ground improvement, modelling, model prediction.

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Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Zhaohui Wen

Abstract:

In this paper, a tri–neuron network model with time delay is investigated. By using the Bendixson-s criterion for high– dimensional ordinary differential equations and global Hopf bifurcation theory for functional differential equations, sufficient conditions for existence of periodic solutions when the time delay is sufficiently large are established.

Keywords: Delay, global Hopf bifurcation, neural network, periodicsolutions.

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Authors: Tal Ben-Zvi, Donald N. Lombardi

Abstract:

This study uses a simulation to establish a realistic environment for laboratory research on Accountable Care Organizations. We study network attributes in order to gain insights regarding healthcare providers- conduct and performance. Our findings indicate how network structure creates significant differences in organizational performance. We demonstrate how healthcare providers positioning themselves at the central, pivotal point of the network while maintaining their alliances with their partners produce better outcomes.

Keywords: Social Networks, Decision-Making, Accountable Care Organizations, Performance

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Authors: M. R. Martinez-Torres, S. L. Toral, M. Olmedilla

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Typically, virtual communities exhibit the well-known phenomenon of participation inequality, which means that only a small percentage of users is responsible of the majority of contributions. However, the sustainability of the community requires that the group of active users must be continuously nurtured with new users that gain expertise through a participation process. This paper analyzes the time evolution of Open Source Software (OSS) communities, considering users that join/abandon the community over time and several topological properties of the network when modeled as a social network. More specifically, the paper analyzes the role of those users rejoining the community and their influence in the global characteristics of the network.

Keywords: Open source communities, social network analysis, time series, virtual communities.

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Authors: Alireza Ansariyar, Safieh Laaly

Abstract:

Over the last decades, the vehicle industry has shown increased interest in integrating autonomous, connected, and electrical technologies in vehicle design with the primary hope of improving mobility and road safety while reducing transportation’s environmental impact. Using the State of Maryland (M.D.) in the United States as a pilot study, this research investigates Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) fuel consumption and air pollutants including Carbon Monoxide (CO), Particulate Matter (PM), and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and utilizes meaningful linear regression models to predict CAV’s environmental effects. Maryland transportation network was simulated in VISUM software, and data on a set of variables were collected through a comprehensive survey. The number of pollutants and fuel consumption were obtained for the time interval 2010 to 2021 from the macro simulation. Eventually, four linear regression models were proposed to predict the amount of C.O., NOx, PM pollutants, and fuel consumption in the future. The results highlighted that CAVs’ pollutants and fuel consumption have a significant correlation with the income, age, and race of the CAV customers. Furthermore, the reliability of four statistical models was compared with the reliability of macro simulation model outputs in the year 2030. The error of three pollutants and fuel consumption was obtained at less than 9% by statistical models in SPSS. This study is expected to assist researchers and policymakers with planning decisions to reduce CAV environmental impacts in M.D.

Keywords: Connected and autonomous vehicles, statistical model, environmental effects, pollutants and fuel consumption, VISUM, linear regression models.

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Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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