Search results for: Intra prediction
811 Mining of Interesting Prediction Rules with Uniform Two-Level Genetic Algorithm
Authors: Bilal Alatas, Ahmet Arslan
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The main goal of data mining is to extract accurate, comprehensible and interesting knowledge from databases that may be considered as large search spaces. In this paper, a new, efficient type of Genetic Algorithm (GA) called uniform two-level GA is proposed as a search strategy to discover truly interesting, high-level prediction rules, a difficult problem and relatively little researched, rather than discovering classification knowledge as usual in the literatures. The proposed method uses the advantage of uniform population method and addresses the task of generalized rule induction that can be regarded as a generalization of the task of classification. Although the task of generalized rule induction requires a lot of computations, which is usually not satisfied with the normal algorithms, it was demonstrated that this method increased the performance of GAs and rapidly found interesting rules.
Keywords: Classification rule mining, data mining, genetic algorithms.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1587810 A Statistical Prediction of Likely Distress in Nigeria Banking Sector Using a Neural Network Approach
Authors: D. A. Farinde
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One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.
Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2690809 Forecasting Direct Normal Irradiation at Djibouti Using Artificial Neural Network
Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim
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In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1067808 A New Technique for Solar Activity Forecasting Using Recurrent Elman Networks
Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito
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In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.
Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1846807 A Comparison between Hybrid and Experimental Extended Polars for the Numerical Prediction of Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine Performance using Blade Element-Momentum Algorithm
Authors: Gabriele Bedon, Marco Raciti Castelli, Ernesto Benini
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A dynamic stall-corrected Blade Element-Momentum algorithm based on a hybrid polar is validated through the comparison with Sandia experimental measurements on a 5-m diameter wind turbine of Troposkien shape. Different dynamic stall models are evaluated. The numerical predictions obtained using the extended aerodynamic coefficients provided by both Sheldal and Klimas and Raciti Castelli et al. are compared to experimental data, determining the potential of the hybrid database for the numerical prediction of vertical-axis wind turbine performances.
Keywords: Darrieus wind turbine, Blade Element-Momentum Theory, extended airfoil database, hybrid database, Sandia 5-m wind turbine.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2547806 System Reliability by Prediction of Generator Output and Losses in a Competitive Energy Market
Authors: Perumal Nallagownden, Ravindra N. Mukerjee, Syafrudin Masri
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In a competitive energy market, system reliability should be maintained at all times. Power system operation being of online in nature, the energy balance requirements must be satisfied to ensure reliable operation the system. To achieve this, information regarding the expected status of the system, the scheduled transactions and the relevant inputs necessary to make either a transaction contract or a transmission contract operational, have to be made available in real time. The real time procedure proposed, facilitates this. This paper proposes a quadratic curve learning procedure, which enables a generator-s contribution to the retailer demand, power loss of transaction in a line at the retail end and its associated losses for an oncoming operating scenario to be predicted. Matlab program was used to test in on a 24-bus IEE Reliability Test System, and the results are found to be acceptable.Keywords: Deregulation, learning coefficients, reliability, prediction, competitive energy market.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1470805 Intelligent Heart Disease Prediction System Using CANFIS and Genetic Algorithm
Authors: Latha Parthiban, R. Subramanian
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Heart disease (HD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the modern society. Medical diagnosis is an important but complicated task that should be performed accurately and efficiently and its automation would be very useful. All doctors are unfortunately not equally skilled in every sub specialty and they are in many places a scarce resource. A system for automated medical diagnosis would enhance medical care and reduce costs. In this paper, a new approach based on coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) was presented for prediction of heart disease. The proposed CANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach which is then integrated with genetic algorithm to diagnose the presence of the disease. The performances of the CANFIS model were evaluated in terms of training performances and classification accuracies and the results showed that the proposed CANFIS model has great potential in predicting the heart disease.
Keywords: CANFIS, genetic algorithms, heart disease, membership function.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3970804 Statistical Assessment of Models for Determination of Soil – Water Characteristic Curves of Sand Soils
Authors: S. J. Matlan, M. Mukhlisin, M. R. Taha
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Characterization of the engineering behavior of unsaturated soil is dependent on the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), a graphical representation of the relationship between water content or degree of saturation and soil suction. A reasonable description of the SWCC is thus important for the accurate prediction of unsaturated soil parameters. The measurement procedures for determining the SWCC, however, are difficult, expensive, and timeconsuming. During the past few decades, researchers have laid a major focus on developing empirical equations for predicting the SWCC, with a large number of empirical models suggested. One of the most crucial questions is how precisely existing equations can represent the SWCC. As different models have different ranges of capability, it is essential to evaluate the precision of the SWCC models used for each particular soil type for better SWCC estimation. It is expected that better estimation of SWCC would be achieved via a thorough statistical analysis of its distribution within a particular soil class. With this in view, a statistical analysis was conducted in order to evaluate the reliability of the SWCC prediction models against laboratory measurement. Optimization techniques were used to obtain the best-fit of the model parameters in four forms of SWCC equation, using laboratory data for relatively coarse-textured (i.e., sandy) soil. The four most prominent SWCCs were evaluated and computed for each sample. The result shows that the Brooks and Corey model is the most consistent in describing the SWCC for sand soil type. The Brooks and Corey model prediction also exhibit compatibility with samples ranging from low to high soil water content in which subjected to the samples that evaluated in this study.
Keywords: Soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), statistical analysis, unsaturated soil.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2655803 Recursive Similarity Hashing of Fractal Geometry
Authors: Timothee G. Leleu
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A new technique of topological multi-scale analysis is introduced. By performing a clustering recursively to build a hierarchy, and analyzing the co-scale and intra-scale similarities, an Iterated Function System can be extracted from any data set. The study of fractals shows that this method is efficient to extract self-similarities, and can find elegant solutions the inverse problem of building fractals. The theoretical aspects and practical implementations are discussed, together with examples of analyses of simple fractals.Keywords: hierarchical clustering, multi-scale analysis, Similarity hashing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1850802 A Wall Law for Two-Phase Turbulent Boundary Layers
Authors: Dhahri Maher, Aouinet Hana
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The presence of bubbles in the boundary layer introduces corrections into the log law, which must be taken into account. In this work, a logarithmic wall law was presented for bubbly two phase flows. The wall law presented in this work was based on the postulation of additional turbulent viscosity associated with bubble wakes in the boundary layer. The presented wall law contained empirical constant accounting both for shear induced turbulence interaction and for non-linearity of bubble. This constant was deduced from experimental data. The wall friction prediction achieved with the wall law was compared to the experimental data, in the case of a turbulent boundary layer developing on a vertical flat plate in the presence of millimetric bubbles. A very good agreement between experimental and numerical wall friction prediction was verified. The agreement was especially noticeable for the low void fraction when bubble induced turbulence plays a significant role.Keywords: Bubbly flows, log law, boundary layer.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1115801 Prediction of Optimum Cutting Parameters to obtain Desired Surface in Finish Pass end Milling of Aluminium Alloy with Carbide Tool using Artificial Neural Network
Authors: Anjan Kumar Kakati, M. Chandrasekaran, Amitava Mandal, Amit Kumar Singh
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End milling process is one of the common metal cutting operations used for machining parts in manufacturing industry. It is usually performed at the final stage in manufacturing a product and surface roughness of the produced job plays an important role. In general, the surface roughness affects wear resistance, ductility, tensile, fatigue strength, etc., for machined parts and cannot be neglected in design. In the present work an experimental investigation of end milling of aluminium alloy with carbide tool is carried out and the effect of different cutting parameters on the response are studied with three-dimensional surface plots. An artificial neural network (ANN) is used to establish the relationship between the surface roughness and the input cutting parameters (i.e., spindle speed, feed, and depth of cut). The Matlab ANN toolbox works on feed forward back propagation algorithm is used for modeling purpose. 3-12-1 network structure having minimum average prediction error found as best network architecture for predicting surface roughness value. The network predicts surface roughness for unseen data and found that the result/prediction is better. For desired surface finish of the component to be produced there are many different combination of cutting parameters are available. The optimum cutting parameter for obtaining desired surface finish, to maximize tool life is predicted. The methodology is demonstrated, number of problems are solved and algorithm is coded in Matlab®.Keywords: End milling, Surface roughness, Neural networks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2154800 An Artificial Neural Network Model for Earthquake Prediction and Relations between Environmental Parameters and Earthquakes
Authors: S. Niksarlioglu, F. Kulahci
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Earthquakes are natural phenomena that occur with influence of a lot of parameters such as seismic activity, changing in the ground waters' motion, changing in the water-s temperature, etc. On the other hand, the radon gas concentrations in soil vary as nonlinear generally with earthquakes. Continuous measurement of the soil radon gas is very important for determination of characteristic of the seismic activity. The radon gas changes as continuous with strain occurring within the Earth-s surface during an earthquake and effects from the physical and the chemical processes such as soil structure, soil permeability, soil temperature, the barometric pressure, etc. Therefore, at the modeling researches are notsufficient to knowthe concentration ofradon gas. In this research, we determined relationships between radon emissions based on the environmental parameters and earthquakes occurring along the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), Turkiye and predicted magnitudes of some earthquakes with the artificial neural network (ANN) model.
Keywords: Earthquake, Modeling, Prediction, Radon.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3001799 Forecasting Stock Indexes Using Bayesian Additive Regression Tree
Authors: Darren Zou
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Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.
Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 719798 Eukaryotic Gene Prediction by an Investigation of Nonlinear Dynamical Modeling Techniques on EIIP Coded Sequences
Authors: Mai S. Mabrouk, Nahed H. Solouma, Abou-Bakr M. Youssef, Yasser M. Kadah
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Many digital signal processing, techniques have been used to automatically distinguish protein coding regions (exons) from non-coding regions (introns) in DNA sequences. In this work, we have characterized these sequences according to their nonlinear dynamical features such as moment invariants, correlation dimension, and largest Lyapunov exponent estimates. We have applied our model to a number of real sequences encoded into a time series using EIIP sequence indicators. In order to discriminate between coding and non coding DNA regions, the phase space trajectory was first reconstructed for coding and non-coding regions. Nonlinear dynamical features are extracted from those regions and used to investigate a difference between them. Our results indicate that the nonlinear dynamical characteristics have yielded significant differences between coding (CR) and non-coding regions (NCR) in DNA sequences. Finally, the classifier is tested on real genes where coding and non-coding regions are well known.
Keywords: Gene prediction, nonlinear dynamics, correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1808797 Time Series Modelling and Prediction of River Runoff: Case Study of Karkheh River, Iran
Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh
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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R2) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.
Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 792796 Reliability Analysis of Underground Pipelines Using Subset Simulation
Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li
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An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.
Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3539795 Computational Study and Wear Prediction of Steam Turbine Blade with Titanium-Nitride Coating Deposited by Physical Vapor Deposition Method
Authors: Karuna Tuchinda, Sasithon Bland
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This work investigates the wear of a steam turbine blade coated with titanium nitride (TiN), and compares to the wear of uncoated blades. The coating is deposited on by physical vapor deposition (PVD) method. The working conditions of the blade were simulated and surface temperature and pressure values as well as flow velocity and flow direction were obtained. This data was used in the finite element wear model developed here in order to predict the wear of the blade. The wear mechanisms considered are erosive wear due to particle impingement and fluid jet, and fatigue wear due to repeated impingement of particles and fluid jet. Results show that the life of the TiN-coated blade is approximately 1.76 times longer than the life of the uncoated one.
Keywords: Physical vapour deposition, steam turbine blade, titanium-based coating, wear prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3140794 Prediction the Deformation in Upsetting Process by Neural Network and Finite Element
Authors: H.Mohammadi Majd, M.Jalali Azizpour , Foad Saadi
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In this paper back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) is employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. The input data for the artificial neural network are a set of parameters generated randomly (aspect ratio d/h, material properties, temperature and coefficient of friction). The output data are the coefficient of polynomial that fitted on barreling curves. Neural network was trained using barreling curves generated by finite element simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting processKeywords: Back-propagation artificial neural network(BPANN), prediction, upsetting
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1540793 A Quantitative Analysis of GSM Air Interface Based on Radiating Columns and Prediction Model
Authors: K. M. Doraiswamy, Lakshminarayana Merugu, B. C. Jinaga
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This paper explains the cause of nonlinearity in floor attenuation hither to left unexplained. The performance degradation occurring in air interface for GSM signals is quantitatively analysed using the concept of Radiating Columns of buildings. The signal levels were measured using Wireless Network Optimising Drive Test Tool (E6474A of Agilent Technologies). The measurements were taken in reflected signal environment under usual fading conditions on actual GSM signals radiated from base stations. A mathematical model is derived from the measurements to predict the GSM signal levels in different floors. It was applied on three buildings and found that the predicted signal levels deviated from the measured levels with in +/- 2 dB for all floors. It is more accurate than the prediction models based on Floor Attenuation Factor. It can be used for planning proper indoor coverage in multi storey buildings.Keywords: GSM air interface, nonlinear attenuation, multistory building, radiating columns, ground conduction and floor attenuation factor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1563792 A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Evaluation of Real-Time Disaster Relief Demand and Network Condition
Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi
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Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.
Keywords: Disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1921791 Prediction of Kinematic Viscosity of Binary Mixture of Poly (Ethylene Glycol) in Water using Artificial Neural Networks
Authors: M. Mohagheghian, A. M. Ghaedi, A. Vafaei
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An artificial neural network (ANN) model is presented for the prediction of kinematic viscosity of binary mixtures of poly (ethylene glycol) (PEG) in water as a function of temperature, number-average molecular weight and mass fraction. Kinematic viscosities data of aqueous solutions for PEG (0.55419×10-6 – 9.875×10-6 m2/s) were obtained from the literature for a wide range of temperatures (277.15 - 338.15 K), number-average molecular weight (200 -10000), and mass fraction (0.0 – 1.0). A three layer feed-forward artificial neural network was employed. This model predicts the kinematic viscosity with a mean square error (MSE) of 0.281 and the coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.983. The results show that the kinematic viscosity of binary mixture of PEG in water could be successfully predicted using an artificial neural network model.Keywords: Artificial neural network, kinematic viscosity, poly ethylene glycol (PEG)
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2520790 Mapping the Digital Landscape: An Analysis of Party Differences between Conventional and Digital Policy Positions
Authors: Daniel Schwarz, Jan Fivaz, Alessia Neuroni
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Although digitization is a buzzword in almost every election campaign, the political parties leave voters largely in the dark about their specific positions on digital issues. In the run-up to the 2019 elections in Switzerland, the ‘Digitization Monitor’ project (DMP) was launched in order to change this situation. Within the framework of the DMP, all 4,736 candidates were surveyed about their digital policy positions and values. The DMP is designed as a digital policy supplement to the existing ‘smartvote’ voting advice application. This enabled a direct comparison of the digital policy attitudes according to the DMP with the topics of the ‘smartvote’ questionnaire which are comprehensive in content but mainly related to conventional policy areas. This paper’s main research goal is to analyze and visualize possible differences between conventional and digital policy areas in terms of response patterns between and within political parties. The analysis is based on dimensionality reduction methods (multidimensional scaling and principal component analysis) for the visualization of inter-party differences, and on standard deviation as a measure of variation for the evaluation of intra-party unity. The results reveal that digital issues show a lower degree of inter-party polarization compared to conventional policy areas. Thus, the parties have more common ground in issues on digitization than in conventional policy areas. In contrast, the study reveals a mixed picture regarding intra-party unity. Homogeneous parties show a lower degree of unity in digitization issues whereas parties with heterogeneous positions in conventional areas have more united positions in digital areas. All things considered, the findings are encouraging as less polarized conditions apply to the debate on digital development compared to conventional politics. For the future, it would be desirable if in further countries similar projects to the DMP could emerge to broaden the basis for conclusions.
Keywords: Comparison of political issue dimensions, digital awareness of candidates, digital policy space, party positions on digital issues.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 625789 Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Support Vector Machine
Authors: Sorayya Malek, Mogeeb Mosleh, Sharifah M. Syed
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In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique was applied to predict the dichotomized value of Dissolved oxygen (DO) from two freshwater lakes namely Chini and Bera Lake (Malaysia). Data sample contained 11 parameters for water quality features from year 2005 until 2009. All data parameters were used to predicate the dissolved oxygen concentration which was dichotomized into 3 different levels (High, Medium, and Low). The input parameters were ranked, and forward selection method was applied to determine the optimum parameters that yield the lowest errors, and highest accuracy. Initial results showed that pH, Water Temperature, and Conductivity are the most important parameters that significantly affect the predication of DO. Then, SVM model was applied using the Anova kernel with those parameters yielded 74% accuracy rate. We concluded that using SVM models to predicate the DO is feasible, and using dichotomized value of DO yields higher prediction accuracy than using precise DO value.
Keywords: Dissolved oxygen, Water quality, predication DO, Support Vector Machine.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2207788 Prediction of Load Capacity of Reinforced Concrete Corbels Strengthened with CFRP Sheets
Authors: Azad A. Mohammed, Gulan B. Hassan
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Analytical procedure was carried out in this paper to calculate the ultimate load capacity of reinforced concrete corbels strengthened or repaired externally with CFRP sheets. Strut and tie method and shear friction method proposed earlier for analyzing reinforced concrete corbels were modified to incorporate the effect of external CFRP sheets bonded to the corbel. The points of weakness of any method that lead to an inaccuracy, especially when overestimating test results were checked and discussed. Comparison of prediction with the test data indicates that the ratio of test / calculated ultimate load is 0.82 and 1.17 using strut and tie method and shear friction method, respectively. If the limits of maximum shear stress is followed, the calculated ultimate load capacity using shear friction method was found to underestimates test data considerably.Keywords: Corbel, Strengthening, Strut and Tie Model, Shear Friction
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2744787 Comparison between Associative Classification and Decision Tree for HCV Treatment Response Prediction
Authors: Enas M. F. El Houby, Marwa S. Hassan
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Combined therapy using Interferon and Ribavirin is the standard treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis C. However, the number of responders to this treatment is low, whereas its cost and side effects are high. Therefore, there is a clear need to predict patient’s response to the treatment based on clinical information to protect the patients from the bad drawbacks, Intolerable side effects and waste of money. Different machine learning techniques have been developed to fulfill this purpose. From these techniques are Associative Classification (AC) and Decision Tree (DT). The aim of this research is to compare the performance of these two techniques in the prediction of virological response to the standard treatment of HCV from clinical information. 200 patients treated with Interferon and Ribavirin; were analyzed using AC and DT. 150 cases had been used to train the classifiers and 50 cases had been used to test the classifiers. The experiment results showed that the two techniques had given acceptable results however the best accuracy for the AC reached 92% whereas for DT reached 80%.
Keywords: Associative Classification, Data mining, Decision tree, HCV, interferon.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1883786 Numerical Analysis of Laminar to Turbulent Transition on the DU91-W2-250 Airfoil
Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, G. Grandi, E. Benini
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This paper presents a study of laminar to turbulent transition on a profile specifically designed for wind turbine blades, the DU91-W2-250, which belongs to a class of wind turbine dedicated airfoils, developed by Delft University of Technology. A comparison between the experimental behavior of the airfoil studied at Delft wind tunnel and the numerical predictions of the commercial CFD solver ANSYS FLUENT® has been performed. The prediction capabilities of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model and of the γ-θ Transitional model have been tested. A sensitivity analysis of the numerical results to the spatial domain discretization has also been performed using four different computational grids, which have been created using the mesher GAMBIT®. The comparison between experimental measurements and CFD results have allowed to determine the importance of the numerical prediction of the laminar to turbulent transition, in order not to overestimate airfoil friction drag due to a fully turbulent-regime flow computation.
Keywords: CFD, wind turbine, DU91-W2-250, laminar to turbulent transition.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3058785 Modified Hybrid Genetic Algorithm-Based Artificial Neural Network Application on Wall Shear Stress Prediction
Authors: Zohreh Sheikh Khozani, Wan Hanna Melini Wan Mohtar, Mojtaba Porhemmat
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Prediction of wall shear stress in a rectangular channel, with non-homogeneous roughness distribution, was studied. Estimation of shear stress is an important subject in hydraulic engineering, since it affects the flow structure directly. In this study, the Genetic Algorithm Artificial (GAA) neural network is introduced as a hybrid methodology of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and modified Genetic Algorithm (GA) combination. This GAA method was employed to predict the wall shear stress. Various input combinations and transfer functions were considered to find the most appropriate GAA model. The results show that the proposed GAA method could predict the wall shear stress of open channels with high accuracy, by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.064 in the test dataset. Thus, using GAA provides an accurate and practical simple-to-use equation.
Keywords: Artificial neural network, genetic algorithm, genetic programming, rectangular channel, shear stress.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 655784 A Preliminary Study on the Suitability of Data Driven Approach for Continuous Water Level Modeling
Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao
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Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1279783 Application of Post-Stack and Pre-Stack Seismic Inversion for Prediction of Hydrocarbon Reservoirs in a Persian Gulf Gas Field
Authors: Nastaran Moosavi, Mohammad Mokhtari
Abstract:
Seismic inversion is a technique which has been in use for years and its main goal is to estimate and to model physical characteristics of rocks and fluids. Generally, it is a combination of seismic and well-log data. Seismic inversion can be carried out through different methods; we have conducted and compared post-stack and pre- stack seismic inversion methods on real data in one of the fields in the Persian Gulf. Pre-stack seismic inversion can transform seismic data to rock physics such as P-impedance, S-impedance and density. While post- stack seismic inversion can just estimate P-impedance. Then these parameters can be used in reservoir identification. Based on the results of inverting seismic data, a gas reservoir was detected in one of Hydrocarbon oil fields in south of Iran (Persian Gulf). By comparing post stack and pre-stack seismic inversion it can be concluded that the pre-stack seismic inversion provides a more reliable and detailed information for identification and prediction of hydrocarbon reservoirs.Keywords: Density, P-impedance, S-impedance, post-stack seismic inversion, pre-stack seismic inversion.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2212782 A Predictive Rehabilitation Software for Cerebral Palsy Patients
Authors: J. Bouchard, B. Prosperi, G. Bavre, M. Daudé, E. Jeandupeux
Abstract:
Young patients suffering from Cerebral Palsy are facing difficult choices concerning heavy surgeries. Diagnosis settled by surgeons can be complex and on the other hand decision for patient about getting or not such a surgery involves important reflection effort. Proposed software combining prediction for surgeries and post surgery kinematic values, and from 3D model representing the patient is an innovative tool helpful for both patients and medicine professionals. Beginning with analysis and classification of kinematics values from Data Base extracted from gait analysis in 3 separated clusters, it is possible to determine close similarity between patients. Prediction surgery best adapted to improve a patient gait is then determined by operating a suitable preconditioned neural network. Finally, patient 3D modeling based on kinematic values analysis, is animated thanks to post surgery kinematic vectors characterizing the closest patient selected from patients clustering.
Keywords: Cerebral Palsy, Clustering, Crouch Gait, 3-D Modeling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1992