Search results for: quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)
754 Development of a Complex Meteorological Support System for UAVs
Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi
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The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2744753 Quantitative and Fourier Transform Infrared Analysis of Saponins from Three Kenyan Ruellia Species: Ruellia prostrata, Ruellia lineari-bracteolata and Ruellia bignoniiflora
Authors: Christine O. Wangia, Jennifer A. Orwa, Francis W. Muregi, Patrick G. Kareru, Kipyegon Cheruiyot, Eric Guantai
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Ruellia (syn. Dipteracanthus) species are wild perennial creepers belonging to the Acanthaceae family. These species are reported to possess anti-inflammatory, analgesic, antioxidant, gastroprotective, anticancer, and immuno-stimulant properties. Phytochemical screening of both aqueous and methanolic extracts of Ruellia species revealed the presence of saponins. Saponins have been reported to possess anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, immuno-stimulant, antihepatotoxic, antibacterial, anticarcinogenic, and antiulcerogenic activities. The objective of this study was to quantify and analyze the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra of saponins in crude extracts of three Kenyan Ruellia species namely Ruellia prostrata (RPM), Ruellia lineari-bracteolata (RLB) and Ruellia bignoniiflora (RBK). Sequential organic extraction of the ground whole plant material was done using petroleum ether (PE), chloroform, ethyl acetate (EtOAc), and absolute methanol by cold maceration, while aqueous extraction was by hot maceration. The plant powders and extracts were mixed with spectroscopic grade KBr and compressed into a pellet. The infrared spectra were recorded using a Shimadzu FTIR spectrophotometer of 8000 series in the range of 3500 cm-1 - 500 cm-1. Quantitative determination of the saponins was done using standard procedures. Quantitative analysis of saponins showed that RPM had the highest quantity of crude saponins (2.05% ± 0.03), followed by RLB (1.4% ± 0.15) and RBK (1.25% ± 0.11), respectively. FTIR spectra revealed the spectral peaks characteristic for saponins in RPM, RLB, and RBK plant powders, aqueous and methanol extracts; O-H absorption (3265 - 3393 cm-1), C-H absorption ranging from 2851 to 2924 cm-1, C=C absorbance (1628 - 1655 cm-1), oligosaccharide linkage (C-O-C) absorption due to sapogenins (1036 - 1042 cm-1). The crude saponins from RPM, RLB and RBK showed similar peaks to their respective extracts. The presence of the saponins in extracts of RPM, RLB and RBK may be responsible for some of the biological activities reported in the Ruellia species.1Keywords: Ruellia bignoniiflora, Ruellia lineari-bracteolata, Ruellia prostrata, Saponins.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1175752 Increase of Organization in Complex Systems
Authors: Georgi Yordanov Georgiev, Michael Daly, Erin Gombos, Amrit Vinod, Gajinder Hoonjan
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Measures of complexity and entropy have not converged to a single quantitative description of levels of organization of complex systems. The need for such a measure is increasingly necessary in all disciplines studying complex systems. To address this problem, starting from the most fundamental principle in Physics, here a new measure for quantity of organization and rate of self-organization in complex systems based on the principle of least (stationary) action is applied to a model system - the central processing unit (CPU) of computers. The quantity of organization for several generations of CPUs shows a double exponential rate of change of organization with time. The exact functional dependence has a fine, S-shaped structure, revealing some of the mechanisms of self-organization. The principle of least action helps to explain the mechanism of increase of organization through quantity accumulation and constraint and curvature minimization with an attractor, the least average sum of actions of all elements and for all motions. This approach can help describe, quantify, measure, manage, design and predict future behavior of complex systems to achieve the highest rates of self organization to improve their quality. It can be applied to other complex systems from Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Ecology, Economics, Cities, network theory and others where complex systems are present.
Keywords: Organization, self-organization, complex system, complexification, quantitative measure, principle of least action, principle of stationary action, attractor, progressive development, acceleration, stochastic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1627751 The Role of State in Combating Religious Extremism and Terrorism
Authors: Kadyrzhan Smagulov, Mukhtar Senggirbay, Sholpan Zhandossova, Lyaila Ivatova, Gulnar Nassimova
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terrorism and extremism are among the most dangerous and difficult to forecast the phenomena of our time, which are becoming more diverse forms and rampant. Terrorist attacks often produce mass casualties, involve the destruction of material and spiritual values, beyond the recovery times, sow hatred among nations, provoke war, mistrust and hatred between the social and national groups, which sometimes can not be overcome within a generation. Currently, the countries of Central Asia are a topical issue – the threat of terrorism and religious extremism, which grow not only in our area, but throughout the world. Of course, in each of the terrorist threat is assessed differently. In our country the problem of terrorism should not be acutely. Thus, after independence and sovereignty of Kazakhstan has chosen the path of democracy, progress and free economy. With the policy of the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev and well-organized political and economic reforms, there has been economic growth and rising living standards, socio-political stability, ensured civil peace and accord in society [1].Keywords: Kazakhstan, national security, religious extremism and terrorism, ethnic conflict
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2769750 Low Temperature Ethanol Gas Sensor based on SnO2/MWNTs Nanocomposite
Authors: O. Alizadeh Sahraei, A. Khodadadi, Y. Mortazavi, M. Vesali Naseh, S. Mosadegh
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A composite made of plasma functionalized multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) coated with SnO2 was synthesized by sonochemical precipitation method. Thick layer of this nanocomposite material was used as ethanol sensor at low temperatures. The composite sensitivity for ethanol has increased by a factor of 2 at room temperature and by a factor of 13 at 250°C in comparison to that of pure SnO2. SEM image of nanocomposite material showed MWNTs were embedded in SnO2 matrix and also a higher surface area was observed in the presence of functionalized MWNTs. Greatly improved sensitivity of the composite material to ethanol can be attributed to new gas accessing passes through MWNTs and higher specific surface area.Keywords: Carbon nanotube, Functionalized, Gas sensor, Low temperature, Nanocomposite, Tin oxide.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2323749 Energy Communities from Municipality Level to Province Level: A Comparison Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo
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Considering the energy crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes increasingly necessary to change energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy, not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption, but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energy communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next 10 years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.
Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 255748 Treatment of Olive Mill Wastewater by Electrocoagulation Processes and Water Resources Management
Authors: Walid K. M. Bani Salameh, Hesham Ahmad, Mohammad Al-Shannag
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In Jordan having deficit atmospheric precipitation, an increase in water demand occurs during summer months. Jordan can be regarded with a relatively high potential for wastewater recycling and reuse. The main purpose of this paper was to investigate the removal of total suspended solids (TSS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) for olive mill wastewater (OMW) by electrocoagulation (EC) process. In the combination of electrocoagulation by using coupled iron–aluminum electrodes, the optimum working pH was found to be around 6. Results indicated that the electrocoagulation process allowed removal of TSS and COD of about 82.5% and 47.5%, respectively at 45 mA/cm2 after 70 minutes by using coupled iron–aluminum electrodes. It was demonstrated that the maximum TSS and COD removals were obtained at some optimum experimental parameters for current density, pH, and reaction time.
Keywords: Olive Mill Wastewater, Electrode, Electrocoagulation (EC), TSS, COD.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2719747 Variable Responses of Leaf C, N and P to Climatic Factors in Different Regions and Growth Forms
Authors: Li Wu
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Plant ecological stoichiometry, which is one of the most important tools to connect the components among different levels of ecosystem, has obtained increasingly extensive concern, especially on its responses to the environmental gradients. Based on the published literatures and datasets, this article focused on reviewing the variable responses of plant foliar ecological stoichiometry to the climatic factors, such as temperature, water, elevated CO2, and found that foliar ecological stoichiometry responded dynamically to climatic variations among different regions and different growth forms. Then, research status and deficiency were summarized and the expectation on studying the relationships between plant C, N and P ecological stoichiometry and environmental variations which can provide a reference to understand how plants will respond to global change in the future was pointed out.
Keywords: Climatic variations, terrestrial plant, foliar ecological stoichiometry, temperature, precipitation, drought, elevated CO2.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 740746 Evaluation of Biofertilizer and Manure Effects on Quantitative Yield of Nigella sativa L.
Authors: Mohammad Reza Haj Seyed Hadi, Fereshteh Ghanepasand, Mohammad Taghi Darzi
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The main objective of this study was to determine the effects of Nitrogen fixing bacteria and manure application on the seed yield and yield components in black cumin (Nigella sativa L.). The experiment was carried out at the RAN Research Station in Firouzkouh in 2012. A 4×4 factorial experiment, arranged in a randomized complete blocks designed with three replications. Nitrogen fixing bacteria at 4 levels (control, Azotobacter, Azospirillum and Azotobacter + Azospirillum) and manure application at 4 levels (0, 2.5, 5 and 7.5 ton ha-1) were used at this investigation. The present results have shown that the highest height, 1000 seeds weight, seed number per follicle, follicle yield, seed yield and harvest index were obtained after using Azotobacter and Azospirillum, simultaneously. Manure application only effects on follicle yield and by 5ton manure ha-1 the highest follicle yield obtained. Results of this investigation showed that the maximum seed yield obtained when Aotobacter+Azospirillum inoculated with black cumin seeds and 5 ton manure ha-1 applied. According to the results of this investigation the integrated management of Azotobacter and Azospirillum with manure application is the best treatment for achieving the maximum quantitative charactersitics of Black cumin.Keywords: Azotobacter, azospirillum, black cumin, yield, yield components.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2396745 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting
Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi
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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2704744 Virtual Reality for Mutual Understanding in Landscape Planning
Authors: Ball J., Capanni N., Watt S.
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This paper argues that fostering mutual understanding in landscape planning is as much about the planners educating stakeholder groups as the stakeholders educating the planners. In other words it is an epistemological agreement as to the meaning and nature of place, especially where an effort is made to go beyond the quantitative aspects, which can be achieved by the phenomenological experience of the Virtual Reality (VR) environment. This education needs to be a bi-directional process in which distance can be both temporal as well as spatial separation of participants, that there needs to be a common framework of understanding in which neither 'side' is disadvantaged during the process of information exchange and it follows that a medium such as VR offers an effective way of overcoming some of the shortcomings of traditional media by taking advantage of continuing technological advances in Information, Technology and Communications (ITC). In this paper we make particular reference to this as an extension to Geographical Information Systems (GIS). VR as a two-way communication tool offers considerable potential particularly in the area of Public Participation GIS (PPGIS). Information rich virtual environments that can operate over broadband networks are now possible and thus allow for the representation of large amounts of qualitative and quantitative information 'side-by-side'. Therefore, with broadband access becoming standard for households and enterprises alike, distributed virtual reality environments have great potential to contribute to enabling stakeholder participation and mutual learning within the planning context.
Keywords: 3D, communication, geographical information systems, planning, public participation, virtual reality, visualisation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2026743 On the Catalytic Combustion Behaviors of CH4 in a MCFC Power Generation System
Authors: Man Young Kim
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Catalytic combustion is generally accepted as an environmentally preferred alternative for the generation of heat and power from fossil fuels mainly due to its advantages related to the stable combustion under very lean conditions with low emissions of NOx, CO, and UHC at temperatures lower than those occurred in conventional flame combustion. Despite these advantages, the commercial application of catalytic combustion has been delayed because of complicated reaction processes and the difficulty in developing appropriate catalysts with the required stability and durability. To develop the catalytic combustors, detailed studies on the combustion characteristics of catalytic combustion should be conducted. To the end, in current research, quantitative studies on the combustion characteristics of the catalytic combustors, with a Pd-based catalyst for MCFC power generation systems, relying on numerical simulations have been conducted. In addition, data from experimental studies of variations in outlet temperatures and fuel conversion, taken after operating conditions have been used to validate the present numerical approach. After introducing the governing equations for mass, momentum, and energy equations as well as a description of catalytic combustion kinetics, the effects of the excess air ratio, space velocity, and inlet gas temperature on the catalytic combustion characteristics are extensively investigated. Quantitative comparisons are also conducted with previous experimental data. Finally, some concluding remarks are presented.
Keywords: Catalytic combustion, Methane, BOP, MCFC power generation system, Inlet temperature, Excess air ratio, Space velocity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2161742 The Effect of Ageing Treatment of Aluminum Alloys for Fuselage Structure-Light Aircraft
Authors: Shwe Wut Hmon Aye, Kay Thi Lwin, Waing Waing Kay Khine Oo
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As the material used for fuselage structure must possess low density, high strength to weight ratio, the selection of appropriate materials for fuselage structure is one of the most important tasks. Aluminum metal itself is soft and low in strength. It can be made stronger by giving proper combination of suitable alloy addition, mechanical treatment and thermal treatment. The usual thermal treatment given to aluminum alloys is called age-hardening or precipitation hardening. In this paper, the studies are carried out on 7075 aluminum alloy which is how to improve strength level for fuselage structure. The marked effect of the strength on the ternary alloy is clearly demonstrated at several ageing times and temperatures. It is concluded that aluminum-zinc-magnesium alloy can get the highest strength level in natural ageing.Keywords: Aluminum alloy, ageing, heat treatment, strength.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2312741 Quantitative Genetics Researches on Milk Protein Systems of Romanian Grey Steppe Breed
Authors: V. Maciuc, Şt. Creangă, I. Gîlcă, V. Ujică
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The paper makes part from a complex research project on Romanian Grey Steppe, a unique breed in terms of biological and cultural-historical importance, on the verge of extinction and which has been included in a preservation programme of genetic resources from Romania. The study of genetic polymorphism of protean fractions, especially kappa-casein, and the genotype relations of these lactoproteins with some quantitative and qualitative features of milk yield represents a current theme and a novelty for this breed. In the estimation of the genetic parameters we used R.E.M.L. (Restricted Maximum Likelihood) method. The main lactoprotein from milk, kappa - casein (K-cz), characterized in the specialized literature as a feature having a high degree of hereditary transmission, behaves as such in the nucleus under study, a value also confirmed by the heritability coefficient (h2 = 0.57 %). We must mention the medium values for milk and fat quantity (h2=0.26, 0.29 %) and the fat and protein percentage from milk having a high hereditary influence h2 = 0.71 - 0.63 %. Correlations between kappa-casein and the milk quantity are negative and strong. Between kappa-casein and other qualitative features of milk (fat content 0.58-0.67 % and protein content 0.77- 0.87%), there are positive and very strong correlations. At the same time, between kappa-casein and β casein (β-cz), β lactoglobulin (β- lg) respectively, correlations are positive having high values (0.37 – 0.45 %), indicating the same causes and determining factors for the two groups of features.Keywords: breed, genetic preservation, lactoproteins, Romanian Grey Steppe
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1703740 Economic Loss due to Ganoderma Disease in Oil Palm
Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho
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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.
Keywords: Ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3216739 Identification of Microbial Community in an Anaerobic Reactor Treating Brewery Wastewater
Authors: Abimbola M. Enitan, John O. Odiyo, Feroz M. Swalaha
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The study of microbial ecology and their function in anaerobic digestion processes are essential to control the biological processes. This is to know the symbiotic relationship between the microorganisms that are involved in the conversion of complex organic matter in the industrial wastewater to simple molecules. In this study, diversity and quantity of bacterial community in the granular sludge taken from the different compartments of a full-scale upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor treating brewery wastewater was investigated using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR). The phylogenetic analysis showed three major eubacteria phyla that belong to Proteobacteria, Firmicutes and Chloroflexi in the full-scale UASB reactor, with different groups populating different compartment. The result of qPCR assay showed high amount of eubacteria with increase in concentration along the reactor’s compartment. This study extends our understanding on the diverse, topological distribution and shifts in concentration of microbial communities in the different compartments of a full-scale UASB reactor treating brewery wastewater. The colonization and the trophic interactions among these microbial populations in reducing and transforming complex organic matter within the UASB reactors were established.
Keywords: Bacteria, brewery wastewater, real-time quantitative PCR, UASB reactor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1082738 Forecasting Electricity Spot Price with Generalized Long Memory Modeling: Wavelet and Neural Network
Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem
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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 984737 Qualitative and Quantitative Characterization of Generated Waste in Nouri Petrochemical Complex, Assaluyeh, Iran
Authors: L. Heidari, M. Jalili Ghazizade
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In recent years, different petrochemical complexes have been established to produce aromatic compounds. Among them, Nouri Petrochemical Complex (NPC) is the largest producer of aromatic raw materials in the world, and is located in south of Iran. Environmental concerns have been raised in this region due to generation of different types of solid waste generated in the process of aromatics production, and subsequently, industrial waste characterization has been thoroughly considered. The aim of this study is qualitative and quantitative characterization of industrial waste generated in the aromatics production process and determination of the best method for industrial waste management. For this purpose, all generated industrial waste during the production process was determined using a checklist. Four main industrial wastes were identified as follows: spent industrial soil, spent catalyst, spent molecular sieves and spent N-formyl morpholine (NFM) solvent. The amount of heavy metals and organic compounds in these wastes were further measured in order to identify the nature and toxicity of such a dangerous compound. Then industrial wastes were classified based on lab analysis results as well as using different international lists of hazardous waste identification such as EPA, UNEP and Basel Convention. Finally, the best method of waste disposal is selected based on environmental, economic and technical aspects.
Keywords: Spent industrial soil, spent molecular sieve, spent normal ¬formyl -morpholine solvent.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 839736 Towards a Broader Understanding of Journal Impact: Measuring Relationships between Journal Characteristics and Scholarly Impact
Authors: X. Gu, K. L. Blackmore
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The impact factor was introduced to measure the quality of journals. Various impact measures exist from multiple bibliographic databases. In this research, we aim to provide a broader understanding of the relationship between scholarly impact and other characteristics of academic journals. Data used for this research were collected from Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory (Ulrichs), Cabell’s (Cabells), and SCImago Journal & Country Rank (SJR) from 1999 to 2015. A master journal dataset was consolidated via Journal Title and ISSN. We adopted a two-step analysis process to study the quantitative relationships between scholarly impact and other journal characteristics. Firstly, we conducted a correlation analysis over the data attributes, with results indicating that there are no correlations between any of the identified journal characteristics. Secondly, we examined the quantitative relationship between scholarly impact and other characteristics using quartile analysis. The results show interesting patterns, including some expected and others less anticipated. Results show that higher quartile journals publish more in both frequency and quantity, and charge more for subscription cost. Top quartile journals also have the lowest acceptance rates. Non-English journals are more likely to be categorized in lower quartiles, which are more likely to stop publishing than higher quartiles. Future work is suggested, which includes analysis of the relationship between scholars and their publications, based on the quartile ranking of journals in which they publish.
Keywords: Academic journal, acceptance rate, impact factor, journal characteristics.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 973735 Hazard Identification and Sensitivity of Potential Resource of Emergency Water Supply
Authors: A. Bumbová, M. Čáslavský, F. Božek, J. Dvořák, E. Bakoš
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The paper presents the case study of hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply as part of the application of methodology classifying the resources of drinking water for emergency supply of population. The case study has been carried out on a selected resource of emergency water supply in one region of the Czech Republic. The hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply is based on a unique procedure and developed general registers of selected types of hazards and sensitivities. The registers have been developed with the help of the “Fault Tree Analysis” method in combination with the “What if method”. The identified hazards for the assessed resource include hailstorms and torrential rains, drought, soil erosion, accidents of farm machinery, and agricultural production. The developed registers of hazards and vulnerabilities and a semi-quantitative assessment of hazards for individual parts of hydrological structure and technological elements of presented drilled wells are the basis for a semi-quantitative risk assessment of potential resource of emergency supply of population and the subsequent classification of such resource within the system of crisis planning.
Keywords: Hazard identification, register of hazards, sensitivity identification, register of sensitivity, emergency water supply, state of crisis, resource of emergency water supply, ground water.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1815734 Model Development for Allocation of Raw Material in Timber Processing Industry in Indonesia
Authors: Muh. Hisjam, Nancy Oktyajati, Wakhid A. Jauhari, Wahyudi Sutopo
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This research is intended to develop a raw material allocation model in timber processing industry in Perum Perhutani Unit I, Central Java, Indonesia. The model can be used to determine the quantity of allocation of timber between chain in the supply chain to select supplier considering factors that are log price and the distance. In determining the quantity of allocation of timber between chains in the supply chain, the model considers the optimal inventory in each chain. Whilst the optimal inventory is determined based on demand forecast, the capacity and safety stock. Problem solving allocation is conducted by developing linear programming model that aims to minimize the total cost of the purchase, transportation cost and storage costs at each chain. The results of numerical examples show that the proposed model can generate savings of the purchase cost of 20.84% and select suppliers with mileage closer.
Keywords: Allocation model, linear programming, purchase costs, storage costs, suppliers, transportation costs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1474733 Historical and Future Rainfall Variations in Bangladesh
Authors: M. M. Hossain, M. Z. Hasan, M. Alauddin, S. Akhter
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Climate change has become a major concern across the world as the intensity along with quantity of the rainfall, mean surface temperature and other climatic parameters have been changed not only in Bangladesh but also in the entire globe. Bangladesh has already experienced many natural hazards. Among them changing of rainfall pattern, erratic and heavy rainfalls are very common. But changes of rainfall pattern and its amount is still in question to some extent. This study aimed to unfold how the historical rainfalls varied over time and how would be their future trends. In this context, historical rainfall data (1975-2014) were collected from Bangladesh Metrological Department (BMD) and then a time series model was developed using Box-Jenkins algorithm in IBM SPSS to forecast the future rainfall. From the historical data analysis, this study revealed that the amount of rainfall decreased over the time and shifted to the post monsoons. Forecasted rainfall shows that the pre-monsoon and early monsoon will get drier in future whereas late monsoon and post monsoon will show huge fluctuations in rainfall magnitudes with temporal variations which means Bangladesh will get comparatively drier seasons in future which may be a serious problem for the country as it depends on agriculture.
Keywords: Monsoon, Pre-monsoon, rainfall, pattern, variations, IBM-SPSS.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1326732 Clustering Based Formulation for Short Term Load Forecasting
Authors: Ajay Shekhar Pandey, D. Singh, S. K. Sinha
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A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.
Keywords: Load forecasting, clustering, fuzzy inference.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1610731 Assessment-Assisted and Relationship-Based Financial Advising: Using an Empirical Assessment to Understand Personal Investor Risk Tolerance in Professional Advising Relationships
Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen
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A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.
Keywords: Behavior based advising, behavioral finance, financial advising, financial advisor tools, financial risk tolerance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 943730 Review of the Model-Based Supply Chain Management Research in the Construction Industry
Authors: Aspasia Koutsokosta, Stefanos Katsavounis
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This paper reviews the model-based qualitative and quantitative Operations Management research in the context of Construction Supply Chain Management (CSCM). Construction industry has been traditionally blamed for low productivity, cost and time overruns, waste, high fragmentation and adversarial relationships. The construction industry has been slower than other industries to employ the Supply Chain Management (SCM) concept and develop models that support the decision-making and planning. However the last decade there is a distinct shift from a project-based to a supply-based approach of construction management. CSCM comes up as a new promising management tool of construction operations and improves the performance of construction projects in terms of cost, time and quality. Modeling the Construction Supply Chain (CSC) offers the means to reap the benefits of SCM, make informed decisions and gain competitive advantage. Different modeling approaches and methodologies have been applied in the multi-disciplinary and heterogeneous research field of CSCM. The literature review reveals that a considerable percentage of the CSC modeling research accommodates conceptual or process models which present general management frameworks and do not relate to acknowledged soft Operations Research methods. We particularly focus on the model-based quantitative research and categorize the CSCM models depending on their scope, objectives, modeling approach, solution methods and software used. Although over the last few years there has been clearly an increase of research papers on quantitative CSC models, we identify that the relevant literature is very fragmented with limited applications of simulation, mathematical programming and simulation-based optimization. Most applications are project-specific or study only parts of the supply system. Thus, some complex interdependencies within construction are neglected and the implementation of the integrated supply chain management is hindered. We conclude this paper by giving future research directions and emphasizing the need to develop optimization models for integrated CSCM. We stress that CSC modeling needs a multi-dimensional, system-wide and long-term perspective. Finally, prior applications of SCM to other industries have to be taken into account in order to model CSCs, but not without translating the generic concepts to the context of construction industry.Keywords: Construction supply chain management, modeling, operations research, optimization and simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2816729 Classification of Soil Aptness to Establish of Panicum virgatum in Mississippi using Sensitivity Analysis and GIS
Authors: Eduardo F. Arias, William Cooke III, Zhaofei Fan, William Kingery
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During the last decade Panicum virgatum, known as Switchgrass, has been broadly studied because of its remarkable attributes as a substitute pasture and as a functional biofuel source. The objective of this investigation was to establish soil suitability for Switchgrass in the State of Mississippi. A linear weighted additive model was developed to forecast soil suitability. Multicriteria analysis and Sensitivity analysis were utilized to adjust and optimize the model. The model was fit using seven years of field data associated with soils characteristics collected from Natural Resources Conservation System - United States Department of Agriculture (NRCS-USDA). The best model was selected by correlating calculated biomass yield with each model's soils-based output for Switchgrass suitability. Coefficient of determination (r2) was the decisive factor used to establish the 'best' soil suitability model. Coefficients associated with the 'best' model were implemented within a Geographic Information System (GIS) to create a map of relative soil suitability for Switchgrass in Mississippi. A Geodatabase associated with soil parameters was built and is available for future Geographic Information System use.Keywords: Aptness, GIS, sensitivity analysis, switchgrass, soil.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1525728 Dynamic Self-Scheduling of Pumped-Storage Power Plant in Energy and Ancillary Service Markets Using Sliding Window Technique
Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, Radhika. S,
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In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.
Keywords: Ancillary services, BPSO, Power System Economics (Electricity markets), Self-Scheduling, Sliding Window Technique.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2560727 Study the Effect of Ultrasonic Irradiation and Surfactant/Fe ions Weight Ratio on Morphology and Particle Size of Magnetite Nanoparticles Synthesised by co-precipitation for Medical Application
Authors: S.Saloomeh Azimipour Meibod, Peyman Pourafshary, Hamid Reza Madaah Hosseini
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A biocompatible ferrofluid have been prepared by coprecipitation of FeCl2.4H2O and FeCl3.6H2O under ultrasonic irradiation and with NaOH as alkaline agent. Cystein was also used as capping agent in the solution. Magnetic properties of the produced ferrofluid were then determined by VSM test and magnetite nanoparticles were characterized by XRD and TEM techniques. The effect of surfactant to Fe ion weight ratio was also studied during this project by using two different amount of Dextran. Results showed the presence of a biocompatible superparamagnetic ferrofluid including magnetite nanoparticles with particle size ranging under 20 nm. The increase in the surfactant content results in the narrowing of the size distribution and reduction of the particle size and more solution stability.Keywords: Biocompatibility, Ferrofluid, Nanoparticle, Sizedistribution, Ultrasonic irradiation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1803726 Model-free Prediction based on Tracking Theory and Newton Form of Polynomial
Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du
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The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1769725 Some Characteristics and Identification of Fungi Contaminated by Alkomos Cement Factory
Authors: Abdulmajeed Bashir Mlitan, Ethan Hack
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Soil samples were collected from and around Alkomos cement factory, Alkomos town, Libya. Soil physiochemical properties were determined. In addition, olive leaves were scanned for their fungal content. This work can conclude that the results obtained for the examined physiochemical characteristics of soil in the area studied prove that cement dust from the Alkomos cement factory in Libya has had a significant impact on the soil. The affected soil properties are pH and total calcium content. These characteristics were found to be higher than those in similar soils from the same area. The increment of soil pH in the same area may be a result of precipitation of cement dust over the years. Different responses were found in each season and each site. For instance, the dominance of fungi of soil and leaves was lowest at 100 m from the factory and the evenness and diversity increased at this site compared to the control area and 250 m from the factory.Keywords: Pollution, Soil Microbial, Alkomos, Libya.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1317