Search results for: uncertain and correlated demand

Authors: Adel Nikfarjam, Hamed Tayebi, Sadoullah Ebrahimnejad

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This paper considers a two-echelon inventory system with a number of warehouses and a single retailer. The retailer replenishes its required items from warehouses, and assembles them into a single final product. We assume that each warehouse supplies only one kind of the raw material for the retailer. The demand process of the final product is assumed to be Poissson, and unsatisfied demand of the final product will be lost. The retailer applies one-for-one-period ordering policy which is also known as (1, T) ordering policy. In this policy the retailer orders to each warehouse a fixed quantity of each item at fixed time intervals, which the fixed quantity is equal to the utilization of the item in the final product. Since, this policy eliminates all demand uncertainties at the upstream echelon, the standard lot sizing model can be applied at all warehouses. In this paper, we calculate the total cost function of the inventory system. Then, based on this function, we present a procedure to obtain the optimal time interval between two consecutive order placements from retailer to the warehouses, and the optimal order quantities of warehouses (assuming that there are positive ordering costs at warehouses). Finally, we present some numerical examples, and conduct numerical sensitivity analysis for cost parameters.

Keywords: two-echelon supply chain, multi-vendor-single-buyer inventory system, lost sales, Poisson demand, one-for-one-period policy, lot sizing model

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Authors: Nayera E. Hassan, Sahar A. El-Masry, Rokia A. El Banna, Mones M. Abu Shady, Muhammad Al-Tohamy, Manal Mouhamed Ali, Mehrevan M. Abd El-Moniem, Mona Anwar

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Association between vitamin D, adiponectin and obesity is a matter of debate, as they play important role in linking obesity with different cardiometabolic risk factors. Objectives: Evaluation of the association between metabolic risk factors with both adiponectin and vitamin D levels and that between adiponectin and vitamin D among obese Egyptian children. Subjects and Methods: This case-control cross-sectional study consisted of 65 obese and 30 healthy children, aged 8-11 years. 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH) D) level, serum adiponectin, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) were measured. Results: The mean 25(OH) D levels in the obese and control groups were 29.9± 10.3 and 39.7 ± 12.7 ng/mL respectively (P < 0.001). The mean 25(OH) D and adiponectin levels in the obese were lower than that in the control group (P < 0.0001). 25(OH) D were inversely correlated with body mass index (BMI), triglyceride, total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), while adiponectin level were inversely correlated with systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and positively correlated with HDL-C. However, there is no relation between 25(OH) D and adiponectin levels among obese children and total sample. Conclusion: In spite of strong association between vitamin D and adiponectin levels with metabolic risk factors and obesity, there is no relation between 25(OH) D and adiponectin levels. In obese children, there are significant negative correlations between 25(OH) D with lipid profile, and between adiponectin levels with blood pressure. At certain adiponectin level, the relation between it and BMI disappears.

Keywords: 25-hydroxy vitamin D, adiponectin, lipid profile, blood pressure, children

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Authors: Arlan Zandro Brucal, John Lynham

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With the accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) increasingly becoming a concern, demand for coastal management and protection is expected to grow. Among the coastal management and protection methods, building seawalls are among the most controversial due to the negative externalities they impose on beachgoers and neighboring properties. This paper provides estimates of the external cost associated with building seawalls on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. Using hedonic pricing approach on real properties sold between 1980-2010 and aerial photographs of seawalls in 1995, the paper finds that (1) while seawalls do increase the value of protected properties, the share of armored properties appear to be negatively correlated with property sale prices, suggesting that the positive effect of seawalls tend to decline as more and more rely on this coastal management method; and (2) the value of beachfront properties tend to decline as they get approach seawalls. Results suggest that policymakers should devise a policy that would internalize the externalities associated with private-sector adaptation to climate change.

Keywords: private sector climate change adaptation, externalities, sea-level rise, hedonic pricing

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Authors: Arjun Paul, Adrijit Goswami

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In our present work, an economic order quantity inventory model with shortages is developed where holding cost is expressed as linearly increasing function of time and demand rate is a ramp type function of time. The items considered in the model are deteriorating in nature so that a small fraction of the items is depleted with the passage of time. In order to consider a more realistic situation, the deterioration rate is assumed to follow a continuous uniform distribution with the parameters involved being triangular fuzzy numbers. The inventory manager offers his customer a discount in case he is willing to backorder his demand when there is a stock-out. The optimum ordering policy and the optimum discount offered for each backorder are determined by minimizing the total cost in a replenishment interval. For better illustration of our proposed model in both the crisp and fuzzy sense and for providing richer insights, a numerical example is cited to exemplify the policy and to analyze the sensitivity of the model parameters.

Keywords: fuzzy deterioration rate, price discount on backorder, ramp type demand, shortage, time varying holding cost

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Authors: Viktória Sugár, Attila Talamon, András Horkai, Michihiro Kita

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The dense urban fabric of the 7^th district of Budapest -known as the former Jewish Quarter-, contains mainly historical style, multi-story tenement houses with courtyards. The high population density and the unsatisfactory energetic state of the buildings result high energy consumption. As a preliminary survey of a complex rehabilitation plan, the authors aim to determine the energy demand of the area. The energy demand was calculated by analyzing the structure and the energy consumption of each building by using Geographic Information System (GIS) methods. The carbon dioxide emission was also calculated, to assess the potential of reducing the present state value by complex structural and energetic rehabilitation. As a main focus of the survey, an energy intensity map has been created about the area.

Keywords: CO₂, energy intensity map, geographic information system (GIS), Hungary, Jewish quarter, rehabilitation

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Authors: Abdelhammid Chibane

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This study summarizes state-of-the-art knowledge in the seismic response of vertically irregular building frames. Criteria defining vertical irregularity as per the current building codes have been discussed. A review of studies on the seismic behaviour of vertically irregular structures along with their findings has been presented. It is observed that building codes provide criteria to classify the vertically irregular structures and suggest dynamic analysis to arrive at design lateral forces. Most of the studies agree on the increase in drift demand in the tower portion of set-back structures and on the increase in seismic demand for buildings with discontinuous distributions in mass, stiffness, and strength. The largest seismic demand is found for the combined-stiffness-and-strength irregularity.

Keywords: mass irregularity, set-back structure, stiffness irregularity, strength irregularity, vertical irregularity

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Authors: Javad Jozaei, Rob G. Bell, Paula Blackett, Scott A. Stephens

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In the last few decades, Social Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) has been a favoured means in evaluating the susceptibility of social systems to drivers of change, including climate change and natural disasters. However, the application of SVA to inform responsive and practical strategies to deal with uncertain climate change impacts has always been challenging, and typically agencies resort back to conventional risk/vulnerability assessment. These challenges include complex nature of social vulnerability concepts which influence its applicability, complications in identifying and measuring social vulnerability determinants, the transitory social dynamics in a changing environment, and unpredictability of the scenarios of change that impacts the regime of vulnerability (including contention of when these impacts might emerge). Research suggests that the conventional quantitative approaches in SVA could not appropriately address these problems; hence, the outcomes could potentially be misleading and not fit for addressing the ongoing uncertain rise in risk. The second phase of New Zealand’s Resilience to Nature’s Challenges (RNC2) is developing a forward-looking vulnerability assessment framework and methodology that informs the decision-making and policy development in dealing with the changing coastal systems and accounts for complex dynamics of New Zealand’s coastal systems (including socio-economic, environmental and cultural). Also, RNC2 requires the new methodology to consider plausible drivers of incremental and unknowable changes, create mechanisms to enhance social and community resilience; and fits the New Zealand’s multi-layer governance system. This paper aims to analyse the conventional approaches and methodologies in SVA and offer recommendations for more responsive approaches that inform adaptive decision-making and policy development in practice. The research adopts a qualitative research design to examine different aspects of the conventional SVA processes, and the methods to achieve the research objectives include a systematic review of the literature and case study methods. We found that the conventional quantitative, reductionist and deterministic mindset in the SVA processes -with a focus the impacts of rapid stressors (i.e. tsunamis, floods)- show some deficiencies to account for complex dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), and the uncertain, long-term impacts of incremental drivers. The paper will focus on addressing the links between resilience and vulnerability; and suggests how resilience theory and its underpinning notions such as the adaptive cycle, panarchy, and system transformability could address these issues, therefore, influence the perception of vulnerability regime and its assessment processes. In this regard, it will be argued that how a shift of paradigm from ‘specific resilience’, which focuses on adaptive capacity associated with the notion of ‘bouncing back’, to ‘general resilience’, which accounts for system transformability, regime shift, ‘bouncing forward’, can deliver more effective strategies in an era characterised by ongoing change and deep uncertainty.

Keywords: complexity, social vulnerability, resilience, transformation, uncertain risks

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Authors: Hala Hzam Al Otaibi

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Background: Obesity is more common among Saudi women compared to men, with 75–88% of adult women suffering from overweight or obesity and most of them married. Weight status and body appreciation are an important factor in maintaining or loss weight behaviors and for husbands satisfaction. Aims: To assess weight status, body appreciation and related factors, including age, level of education, occupation status husbands satisfaction in adult women. Methods: A cross-sectional study conducted among 326 married women, aged 18 to 60 years old in Eastern of Saudi Arabia. Data were collected by face to face interview, height and weight were measured to calculate body mass index (BMI). Body Appreciation Scale (BAS) and husbands satisfied were evaluated through questioning. Results: The majority of women has a university education, not employed and less than 40 years old (66.5%, 69.9%, 67.5%; respectively). Fifty-four percent of women overweight/obese and the rest were normal weight, BAS mean score was lower in younger women (>40 years) 7.39+2.20 and obese women (6.83+2.16) which is reflected lower body appreciation. Husbands' satisfaction regarding the weight status shows 47.6% of normal weight believed their husbands were dissatisfied with their weight and consider them as overweight/obese, 28.3% of overweight/obese thought their husbands satisfied with their weight and consider them as normal weight. Body appreciation correlated with age (r.139,p<0.05) and no correlation found for level of education and employed status. Husbands satisfaction strongly correlated with body appreciation (r.189,p<0.01) and weight status (r .570,p <0.01). Conclusion: Our findings indicate that women had a low body appreciation related to age, weight status and husbands' dissatisfaction. Future interventions aimed to weight reduction, it is important to consider husband satisfaction, as well as we need more assessment of weight satisfaction in younger women.

Keywords: body appreciation, husbands satisfaction, weight status, women

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Authors: Jiri Dufek

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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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Authors: Xiaohua Zou, Yongxin Su

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The reasonable operation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is of great significance in improving the security, stability, and economy of power system operation. However, the uncertainty of the operating environment, thermal comfort varies by users and rapid decision-making pose challenges for HVAC demand response optimization. In this regard, this paper proposes a reinforcement learning-based method for HVAC demand response optimization considering few-shot personalized thermal comfort (PTC). First, an HVAC DR optimization framework based on few-shot PTC model and DRL is designed, in which the output of few-shot PTC model is regarded as the input of DRL. Then, a few-shot PTC model that distinguishes between awake and asleep states is established, which has excellent engineering usability. Next, based on soft actor criticism, an HVAC DR optimization algorithm considering the user’s PTC is designed to deal with uncertainty and make decisions rapidly. Experiment results show that the proposed method can efficiently obtain use’s PTC temperature, reduce energy cost while ensuring user’s PTC, and achieve rapid decision-making under uncertainty.

Keywords: HVAC, few-shot personalized thermal comfort, deep reinforcement learning, demand response

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Authors: Zuwaira Abubakar

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Islam is the Divine religion which guides Man ways of leading a prosperous life in this life and the hereafter. This study was conducted in order to investigate the possible relationship between adherence to Islamic principles of success and academic performance of university students. Accordingly, a questionnaire based on Islamized principles of success (referred to as 'Islamic character quotient inventory (ICQi)') was correlated with CGPA (Cumulative Grade Point Averages) of 343 students of Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto. The empirical testing indicates that the total score on ICQi correlated positively and significantly with academic performance of the respondent. Students with either high or medium adherence have a significantly (P<0.01) higher CGPA than their counterparts with the low-adherence level. However, the result did not show a significant relationship between the CGPA of highly adherent individuals and that of those with medium adherence level. This may suggests that Islam is not for spiritual life only but also relevant and useful for our practical life.

Keywords: academic, Islam, principles, success

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Authors: Mohammed Bashir Uddin

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Human trafficking remains as a persistent problem in many parts of the world. It is considered by many countries as an issue of a threat to national security. Border enforcement to prevent trafficking has been the main incentive, which eventually causes human insecurity for vulnerable people, especially for women. This research argues that focus needs to be placed on the political economy of trafficking, hence on the supply and demand sides of trafficking from a broader socio-economic perspective. Trafficking is a global phenomenon with its contemporary origins in the international capitalist market system. This research investigates particularly the supply-demand nexus on the backdrop of globalization and its impact on human security. It argues that the nexus varies across the countries, particularly the demand side. While prostitution has been the sole focus of the demand side in all countries in Asia, the paper argues that organ trade, bonded labor, cheap and exploitable labor through false recruitment (male trafficking) and adoption are some of the rising demands that explore new trends of trafficking, which could be better explained through international political economy (IPE). Following a qualitative research method, the paper argues that although demands vary in destination countries, they are the byproducts of IPE which have different socio-economic impacts both on trafficked individuals and the states.

Keywords: globalization, human security, human trafficking, political economy

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Authors: Ruwandika Perera

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Even though the Sri Lankan government provides a reasonable level of support for students at all levels of the school system, for example, free education, textbooks, school uniforms, subsidized public transportation, and school meals, low participation in learning among secondary students is an issue warranting investigation, particularly in low socio-economic districts. This study attempted to determine the levels of motivation and engagement amongst students in a number of schools in two low socio-economic districts of Sri Lanka. This study employed quantitative research design in an attempt to determine levels of motivation and engagement amongst Sri Lankan secondary school students. Motivation and Engagement Scale-Junior School (MES-JS) was administered among 100 Sinhala-medium and 100 Tamil-medium eighth-grade students (50 students from each gender). The mean age of the students was 12.8 years. Schools were represented by type 2 government schools located in Monaragala and Nuwara Eliya districts in Sri Lanka. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to measure the construct validity of the scale. Since this did not provide a robust solution, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was conducted. Four factors were identified; Failure Avoidance and Anxiety (FAA), Positive Motivation (PM), Uncertain Control (UC), and Positive Engagement (PE). An independent-samples t-test was conducted to compare PM, PE, FAA, and UC in gender and ethnic groups. There was no significant difference identified for PE, FAA, and UC scales based upon gender. These results indicate that for the participants in this study, there were no significant differences based on gender in the levels of failure avoidance and anxiety, uncertain control, and positive engagement in the school experience. But, the result for the PM scale was close to significant, indicating there may be differences based on gender for positive motivation. A significant difference exists for all scales based on ethnicity, with the mean result for the Tamil students being significantly higher than that for the Sinhala students. These results indicate those Sinhala-medium students’ levels of positive motivation and positive engagement in learning was lower than Tamil-medium students. Also, these results indicate those Tamil-medium students’ levels of failure avoidance, anxiety, and uncertain control was higher than Sinhala-medium students. It could be concluded that male students levels of PM were significantly lower than female students. Also, Sinhala-medium students’ levels of PM and PE was lower than Tamil-medium students, and Tamil-medium students levels of FAA and UC was significantly higher than Sinhala-medium students. Thus, there might be particular school-related conditions affecting this situation, which are related to early adolescents’ motivation and engagement in learning.

Keywords: early adolescents, engagement, low socio-economic districts, motivation

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Authors: Suleiman Hassan Otuoze, Dexter Vernon Lloyd Hunt, Ian Jefferson

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Urbanization has continued to widen the gap between demand and resources available to provide resilient and sustainable transport services in many fast-growing developing countries' cities. Transport demand management is a decision-based optimization concept for both benchmarking and ensuring efficient use of transport resources. This study assesses the service quality of infrastructure and mobility services in the Nigerian cities of Kano and Lagos through five dimensions of quality (i.e., Tangibility, Reliability, Responsibility, Safety Assurance and Empathy). The methodology adopts a hybrid AHP-SERVQUAL model applied on questionnaire surveys to gauge the quality of satisfaction and the views of experts in the field. The AHP results prioritize tangibility, which defines the state of transportation infrastructure and services in terms of satisfaction qualities and intervention decision weights in the two cities. The results recorded ‘unsatisfactory’ indices of quality of performance and satisfaction rating values of 48% and 49% for Kano and Lagos, respectively. The satisfaction indices are identified as indicators of low performances of transportation demand management (TDM) measures and the necessity to re-order priorities and take proactive steps towards infrastructure. The findings pilot a framework for comparative assessment of recognizable standards in transport services, best ethics of management and a necessity of quality infrastructure to guarantee both resilient and sustainable urban mobility.

Keywords: transportation demand management, multi-criteria decision support, transport infrastructure, service quality, sustainable transport

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Authors: Zaid Jamal Saeed Almahmoud

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Smart Grid is the vision of the future power system that combines advanced monitoring and communication technologies to provide energy in a smart, efficient, and user-friendly manner. This proposal considers a demand response model in the Smart Grid based on utility maximization. Given a set of consumers with conflicting preferences in terms of consumption and a utility company that aims to minimize the peak demand and match demand to supply, we study the problem of aggregating these preferences while modelling the problem as a game. We also investigate whether an equilibrium can be reached to maximize the social benefit. Based on such equilibrium, we propose a dynamic pricing heuristic that computes the equilibrium and sets the prices accordingly. The developed approach was analysed theoretically and evaluated experimentally using real appliances data. The results show that our proposed approach achieves a substantial reduction in the overall energy consumption.

Keywords: heuristics, smart grid, aggregation, mechanism design, equilibrium

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Authors: Jehad Al Dallal

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Software engineers apply different measures to quantify the quality of software design. These measures consider artifacts developed at low or high level software design phases. The results are used to point to design weaknesses and to indicate design points that have to be restructured. Understanding the relationship among the quality measures and among the design quality aspects considered by these measures is important to interpreting the impact of a measure for a quality aspect on other potentially related aspects. In addition, exploring the relationship between quality measures helps to explain the impact of different quality measures on external quality aspects, such as reliability and maintainability. In this paper, we report a replication study that empirically explores the correlation between six well known and commonly applied design quality measures. These measures consider several quality aspects, including complexity, cohesion, coupling, and inheritance. The results indicate that inheritance measures are weakly correlated to other measures, whereas complexity, coupling, and cohesion measures are mostly strongly correlated.  

Keywords: quality attribute, quality measure, software design quality, Spearman correlation

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Authors: Salah Al-Din I. Badran, Samad Ahmadi, Dylan Menzies, Ismail Shahin

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This paper describes a new efficient blind source separation method; in this method we use a non-uniform filter bank and a new structure with different sub-bands. This method provides a reduced permutation and increased convergence speed comparing to the full-band algorithm. Recently, some structures have been suggested to deal with two problems: reducing permutation and increasing the speed of convergence of the adaptive algorithm for correlated input signals. The permutation problem is avoided with the use of adaptive filters of orders less than the full-band adaptive filter, which operate at a sampling rate lower than the sampling rate of the input signal. The decomposed signals by analysis bank filter are less correlated in each sub-band than the input signal at full-band, and can promote better rates of convergence.

Keywords: Blind source separation, estimates, full-band, mixtures, sub-band

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Authors: Krishna Prasad Sharma

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Nepal’s financial sector has become deeper and wider, and the number and types of financial intermediaries have grown rapidly over the past two decades. However, access to financial services remains limited for many people in many parts of rural Nepal. While financial institutions have been expanding rapidly in an urban area in recent years, the access to the rural poor is excessively inadequate due to financial illiteracy and limited numbers of financial institutions that confined only to the district headquarters. Based on the focus group discussion, semi-structured interview of key people and literature review, this paper aims to examine the supply of and demand for financial services in Nepal and the constraints to increasing access to them, and offers way forward for making the financial sector work for all of Nepal’s people, especially the rural poor. While Nepal’s government has tried to increase access to formal financial services for small businesses and low-income households through directed lending programs for small businesses and low-income households, created specialized wholesale and retail institutions, and lowered market entry requirements, formal financial services are declining, and financial intermediation is stagnating. Supply and demand indicators show that, despite government efforts, formal financial institutions do not serve the needs of most of the Nepalese population. While access to and use of formal financial services are limited, in general, the problem is acute for small businesses and low-income households. Indeed, both access and use are closely correlated with business loan size and household income. This study concludes that banks and microfinance institutions with the use of mobile phones can connect hundreds of millions of unbanked and low-income people, especially rural poor to financial services at low costs. While there are many challenges ahead in expanding the service to rural areas, the mobile financial services will be beneficial that makes payments faster and cheaper, more convenient and accessible to a greater number of senders and recipients in rural areas. In rural areas, clients will benefit from money transfer and other mobile and online services.

Keywords: financial inclusion, financial enabling environment, microfinance, branchless banking, rural poor

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Authors: Ge Sun, Monika Trzpis, Robbert J. de Haas, Paul M. A. Broens

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Introduction: Dynamic magnetic resonance defecography is frequently used to assess defecation disorders. We aimed to investigate the usefulness of dynamic magnetic resonance defecography for assessing the severity of defecation disorder. Methods: We included patients retrospectively from our tertiary referral hospital who had undergone dynamic magnetic resonance defecography, anorectal manometry, and anal electrical sensitivity tests to assess defecation disorders between 2014 and 2020. The primary outcome was the association between the dynamic magnetic resonance defecography variables and the severity of defecation disorders. We assessed the severity of fecal incontinence and constipation with the Wexner incontinence and Agachan constipation scores. Results: Out of the 32 patients included, 24 completed the defecation questionnaire. During defecation, the M line length at magnetic resonance correlated with the Agachan score (r = 0.45, p = 0.03) and was associated with anal sphincter pressure (r=0.39, p=0.03) just before defecation. During rest and squeezing, the H line length at imaging correlated with the Wexner incontinence score (r=0.49, p=0.01 and r=0.69, p< 0.001, respectively). H line length also correlated positively with the anal electrical sensation threshold during squeezing (r=0.50, p=0.004) and during rest (r= 0.42, p=0.02). Conclusions: The M and H line lengths at dynamic magnetic resonance defecography can be used to assess the severity of constipation and fecal incontinence respectively and reflect anatomic changes of the pelvic floor. However, as these anatomic changes are generally late-stage and irreversible, anal manometry seems a better diagnostic approach to assess early and potentially reversible changes in patients with defecation disorders.

Keywords: defecation disorders, dynamic magnetic resonance defecography, anorectal manometry, anal electrical sensitivity tests, H line, M line

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Authors: Nhi Phuoc Thuc Le

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Cross-cultural adaptability —one’s readiness to interact with people who are different from oneself or to adapt to living in another culture— is essential to the well-being and experience of international students. This research was set out to find the correlation between certain personality traits of international students and their likelihood to adapt to the U.S., the host culture. The study used Qualtrics, an online survey, to investigate the relationships between international students’ social self-efficacy, ego-resiliency, cultural intelligence, Big Five personality traits and cross-cultural adaptability (sociocultural and psychological adaptability). The data were analysed with the software SPSS. The findings of this quantitative study show that high scores in ego-resiliency, social self-efficacy, cultural intelligence and personality traits (including extraversion, agreeableness, intellect and conscientiousness) are correlated with better cross-cultural adaptation. Meanwhile, the Big-Five trait neuroticism is correlated with lower cross-cultural adaptability. Such insight is suggested to help international students be better prepared for an immersion into the US culture.

Keywords: Big Five, cross-cultural adaptability, cultural intelligence, ego-resiliency, international students, personality, self-efficacy

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Authors: K.Ishii, T. Furuichi, A. Fujiyama, S. Hariya

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Rice straw pellets are a promising fuel as a renewable energy source. Financial analysis is needed to make a utilization system using rise straw pellets financially feasible, considering all regional conditions including stakeholders related to the collection and storage, production, transportation and heat utilization. We conducted the financial analysis of feasibility for a heat utilization system using rice straw pellets which has been developed for the first time in Nanporo, Hokkaido, Japan. Especially, we attempted to clarify the effect of factors required for the system to be financial feasibility, such as the heating energy demand and collection and storage method of rice straw. The financial feasibility was found to improve when increasing the heating energy demand and collecting wheat straw in August separately from collection of rice straw in November because the costs of storing rice straw and producing pellets were reduced. However, the system remained financially unfeasible. This study proposed a contractor program funded by a subsidy from Nanporo local government where a contracted company, instead of farmers, collects and transports rice straw in order to ensure the financial feasibility of the system, contributing to job creation in the region.

Keywords: rice straw, pellets, heating energy demand, collection, storage

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Authors: Manish Khanra, Shashank Prabhu

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The decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors is currently high on the agenda in the EU and its member states, as these sectors have substantial shares in overall GHG emissions while it is facing serious challenges to decarbonize. In particular, the aviation sector accounts for 2.8% of global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. These emissions are anticipated to grow dramatically unless immediate mitigating efforts are implemented. Hydrogen and its derivatives based on renewable electricity can have a key role in the transition towards CO₂-neutral flights. The substantial shares of energy carriers in the form of drop-in fuel, direct combustion and Hydrogen-to-Electric are promising in most scenarios towards 2050. For creating appropriate policies to ramp up the production and utilisation of hydrogen commodities in the German aviation sector, a detailed analysis of the spatial distribution of supply-demand sites is essential. The objective of this research work is to assess the demand for hydrogen-based alternative fuels in the German aviation sector to achieve the perceived goal of the ‘Net Zero’ scenario by 2050. Here, the analysis of the technological pathways for the production and utilisation of these fuels in various aircraft options is conducted for reaching mitigation targets. Our method is based on data-driven bottom-up assessment, considering production and demand sites and their spatial distribution. The resulting energy demand and its spatial distribution with consideration of technology diffusion lead to a possible transition pathway of the aviation sector to meet short-term and long-term mitigation targets. Additionally, to achieve mitigation targets in this sector, costs and policy aspects are discussed, which would support decision-makers from airline industries, policymakers and the producers of energy commodities.

Keywords: the aviation sector, hard-to-abate sectors, hydrogen demand, alternative fuels, technological pathways, data-driven approach

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Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

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Authors: Anne Gesare Timu, Megan Sheahan, Andrew Gache Mude, Rupsha Banerjee

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Women headed households are among the most vulnerable to negative climatic shocks and are often left poorer as a result. Credit provision has been recognized as one way of alleviating rural poverty and developing poor rural households’ resilience to shocks. Much has been documented about credit demand in small-holder agriculture settings in Kenya. However, little is known about demand for credit among pastoral women. This paper analyzes the determinants of demand for credit in the pastoral regions of Marsabit District of Northern Kenya. Using a five wave balanced panel data set of 820 households, a double hurdle model is employed to analyze if shocks, financial literacy and risk aversion affect credit demand among female and male headed households differently. The results show that borrowing goods on credit and monetary credit from informal market segments are the most common sources of credit in the study area. The impact of livestock loss and financial literacy on the decision to borrow and how much to borrow vary with gender. While the paper suggests that provision of credit is particularly valuable in the aftermath of a negative shock and more so for female-headed households, it also explores alternatives to the provision of credit where credit access is a constraint. It recommends further understanding of systems and institutions which could enhance access to credit, and particularly during times of stress, to enable households in the study area in particular and Northern Kenya in general to invest, engage in meaningful development and growth, and be resilient to persistent shocks.

Keywords: female headed households, pastoralism, rural financing, double hurdle model

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Authors: Yingxiao Ye, Christopher Doehring, Angelos Georghiou, Hugh Robinson, Phebe Vayanos

Abstract:

Human development is a threat to biodiversity, and conservation organizations (COs) are purchasing land to protect areas for biodiversity preservation. However, COs have limited budgets and thus face hard prioritization decisions that are confounded by uncertainty in future human land use. This research proposes a data-driven sequential planning model to help COs choose land parcels that minimize the uncertain human impact on biodiversity. The proposed model is robust to uncertain development, and the sequential decision-making process is adaptive, allowing land purchase decisions to adapt to human land use as it unfolds. The cellular automata model is leveraged to simulate land use development based on climate data, land characteristics, and development threat index from NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center. This simulation is used to model uncertainty in the problem. This research leverages state-of-the-art techniques in the robust optimization literature to propose a computationally tractable reformulation of the model, which can be solved routinely by off-the-shelf solvers like Gurobi or CPLEX. Numerical results based on real data from the Jaguar in Central and South America show that the proposed method reduces conservation loss by 19.46% on average compared to standard approaches such as MARXAN used in practice for biodiversity conservation. Our method may better help guide the decision process in land acquisition and thereby allow conservation organizations to maximize the impact of limited resources.

Keywords: data-driven robust optimization, biodiversity conservation, uncertainty simulation, adaptive sequential planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Valeda Dent

Abstract:

This study explores reading and library factors related to secondary school student academic outcomes in rural areas in Uganda. This mixed methods study utilized quantitative data collected as part of a more extensive project to explore six student factors in relation to students’ school, library, and home environments. The Kitengesa Community Library in Uganda (www.kitengesalibrary.org) served as the site for this study. The factors explored for this study include reading frequency, library use frequency, library access, overall grade average (OGA), and presence and type of reading materials in the home. Results indicated that both reading frequency and certain types of reading materials read for recreational purposes are correlated with higher OGA. Reading frequency was positively correlated with student OGA for all students.

Keywords: rural village libraries, secondary school students, reading, academic achievement

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

Abstract:

World-wide spread of coronavirus grows the concern about planning for the excess demand of hospital services in response to COVID-19 pandemic. The surge in the hospital services demand beyond the current capacity leads to shortage of ICU beds and ventilators in some parts of US. In this study, we forecast the required number of hospital beds and possible shortage of beds in US during COVID-19 pandemic to be used in the planning and hospitalization of new cases. In this paper, we used a data on COVID-19 deaths and patients’ hospitalization besides the data on hospital capacities and utilization in US from publicly available sources and national government websites. we used a novel ensemble modelling of deep learning networks, based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to predict the shortage in hospital beds. The results showed that our proposed approach can predict the excess hospital beds demand very well and this can be helpful in developing strategies and plans to mitigate this gap.

Keywords: COVID-19, deep learning, ensembled models, hospital capacity planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Maria Anjelica P. Ancheta, Roberto S. Soriano, Erickson L. Llaguno

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a significant relationship between socio-economic class and household water supply demand, through determining or verifying the factors governing water use consumption patterns of households from a sampling from different socio-economic classes in Metro Manila, the national capital region of the Philippines. This study is also an opportunity to augment the lack of local academic literature due to the very few publications on urban household water demand after 1999. In over 600 Metro Manila households, a rapid survey was conducted on their average monthly water consumption and habits on household water usage. The questions in the rapid survey were based on an extensive review of literature on urban household water demand. Sample households were divided into socio-economic classes A-B and C-D. Cluster analysis, dummy coding and outlier tests were done to prepare the data for regression analysis. Subsequently, backward stepwise regression analysis was used in order to determine different statistical models to describe the determinants of water consumption. The key finding of this study is that the socio-economic class of a household in Metro Manila is a significant factor in water consumption. A-B households consume more water in contrast to C-D families based on the mean average water consumption for A-B and C-D households are 36.75 m3 and 18.92 m3, respectively. The most significant proxy factors of socio-economic class that were related to household water consumption were examined in order to suggest improvements in policy formulation and household water demand management.

Keywords: household water uses, socio-economic classes, urban planning, urban water demand management

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Mykhailo Moskalets, Pablo Burset, Benjamin Roussel, Christian Flindt

Abstract:

The single-particle injection from the Andreev level and how such injection is simulated using a voltage pulse are discussed. Recently, high-speed quantum-coherent electron sources injecting one- to few-particle excitations into the Fermi sea have been experimentally realized. The main obstacle to using these excitations as flying qubits for quantum-information processing purposes is decoherence due to the long-range Coulomb interaction. An obvious way to get around this difficulty is to employ electrically neutral excitations. Here it is discussed how such excitations can be generated on-demand using the same injection principles as in existing electron sources. Namely, with the help of a voltage pulse of a certain shape applied to the Fermi sea or using a driven quantum dot with superconducting correlations. The advantage of the latter approach is the possibility of varying the electron-hole content in the excitation and the possibility of creating a charge-neutral but spin-dipole excitation.

Keywords: Andreev level, on-demand, single-electron, spin-dipole

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: M. Wajahat, M. Shoaib, A. Waheed

Abstract:

As a result of increase in world energy demand as well as the demand for heating, refrigeration and air conditioning, energy engineers are now more inclined towards the renewable energy especially solar based thermal driven refrigeration and air conditioning systems. This research is emphasized on solar assisted adsorption refrigeration system to provide comfort conditions for a building in Islamabad. The adsorption chiller can be driven by low grade heat at low temperature range (50 -80 °C) which is lower than that required for generator in absorption refrigeration system which may be furnished with the help of common flat plate solar collectors (FPC). The aim is to offset the total energy required for building’s heating and cooling demand by using FPC’s thus reducing dependency on primary energy source hence saving energy. TRNSYS is a dynamic modeling and simulation tool which can be utilized to simulate the working of a complete solar based adsorption chiller to meet the desired cooling and heating demand during summer and winter seasons, respectively. Modeling and detailed parametric analysis of the whole system is to be carried out to determine the optimal system configuration keeping in view various design constraints. Main focus of the study is on solar thermal loop of the adsorption chiller to reduce the contribution from the auxiliary devices.

Keywords: flat plate collector, energy saving, solar assisted adsorption chiller, TRNSYS

Procedia PDF Downloads 617