Search results for: schedule variance

Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

Abstract:

Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Khaled Al-Mansour, Nawaf Esmael, Abdulaziz Al-Zaid, Mohammed Al Ateeqi, Ali Al-Yousfi, Sayed Al-Zalzalah

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In this project we will create the new schedule of nurse according to the preference of them. We did our project in Mubarak Al Kabeer Hospital (in Kuwait). The project aims to optimize the schedule of nurses in Mubarak Al Kabeer Hospital. The schedule of the nurses was studied and understood well to do any modification for their schedule to make the nurses feel as much comfort as they are. First constraints were found to know what things we can change and what things we can’t, the hard constraints are the hospital and ministry policies where we can’t change anything about, and the soft constraints are things that make nurses more comfortable. Data were collected and nurses were interviewed to know what is more better for them. All these constraints and date have been formulated to mathematical equations. This report will first contain an introduction to the topic which includes details of the problem definition. It will also contain information regarding the optimization of a nurse schedule and its contents and importance; furthermore, the report will contain information about the data needed to solve the problem and how it was collected. The problem requires formulation and that is also to be shown. The methodology will be explained which will state what has already been done. We used the lingo software to find the best schedule for the nurse. The schedule has been made according to what the nurses prefer, and also took consideration of the hospital policy when we make the schedule.

Keywords: nurse schedule problem, Kuwait, hospital policy, optimization of schedules

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Authors: Angelina Anani, Ignacio Ortiz Flores, Haitao Li

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The use of underground mining methods have increased significantly over the past decades. This increase has also been spared on by several mines transitioning from surface to underground mining. However, determining the transition depth can be a challenging task, especially when coupled with production schedule optimization. Several researchers have simplified the problem by excluding operational features relevant to production schedule optimization. Our research objective is to investigate the extent to which operational features of transition mines accounted for affect the optimal production schedule. We also provide a framework for factors to consider in production schedule optimization for transition mines. An integrated mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed that maximizes the NPV as a function of production schedule and transition depth. A case study is performed to validate the model, with a comparative sensitivity analysis to obtain operational insights.

Keywords: underground mining, transition mines, mixed-integer linear programming, production schedule

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Authors: Shu-Hui Jan, Hui-Ping Tserng, Shih-Ping Ho

Abstract:

Construction project control attempts to obtain real-time as-built schedule information and to eliminate project delays by effectively enhancing dynamic schedule control and management. Suitable platforms for enhancing an as-built schedule visually during the construction phase are necessary and important for general contractors. As the application of building information modeling (BIM) becomes more common, schedule management integrated with the BIM approach becomes essential to enhance visual construction management implementation for the general contractor during the construction phase. To enhance visualization of the updated as-built schedule for the general contractor, this study presents a novel system called the Construction BIM-assisted Schedule Management (ConBIM-SM) system for general contractors in Taiwan. The primary purpose of this study is to develop a web ConBIM-SM system for the general contractor to enhance visual as-built schedule information sharing and efficiency in tracking construction as-built schedule. Finally, the ConBIM-SM system is applied to a case study of a commerce building project in Taiwan to verify its efficacy and demonstrate its effectiveness during the construction phase. The advantages of the ConBIM-SM system lie in improved project control and management efficiency for general contractors, and in providing BIM-assisted as-built schedule tracking and management, to access the most current as-built schedule information through a web browser. The case study results show that the ConBIM-SM system is an effective visual as-built schedule management platform integrated with the BIM approach for general contractors in a construction project.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), construction schedule management, as-built schedule management, BIM schedule updating mechanism

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Authors: John M. Ikome

Abstract:

In the process of manufacturing, a machine breakdown usually forces a modified flow shop out of the prescribed state, this strategy reschedules part of the initial schedule to match up with the pre-schedule at some point with the objective to create a schedule that is reliable with the other production planning decisions like material flow, production and suppliers by utilizing a critical decision-making concept. We propose a rescheduling strategy and a match-up point that will have a determination procedure through an advanced feedback control mechanism to increase both the schedule quality and stability. These approaches are compared with alternative re-scheduling methods under different experimental settings.

Keywords: scheduling, heuristics, branch, integrated

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Authors: Hyeon-Seung Kim, Young-Hwan Kim, Sang-Mi Park, Min-Seo Kim, Jong-Myeung Shin, Leen-Seok Kang

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The project budget at the planned stage might be changed by the insufficient government budget or the design change. There are many cases more especially in the case of a project performed for a long period of time. If the actual construction budget is insufficient comparing with the planned budget, the construction schedule should also be changed to match the changed budget. In that case, most project managers change the planned construction schedule by a heuristic approach without a reasonable consideration on the work priority. This study suggests an optimized methodology to modify the construction schedule according to the changed budget. The genetic algorithm was used to optimize the modified construction schedule within the changed budget. And a simulation system of construction cost histogram in accordance with the construction schedule was developed in the BIM (Building Information Modeling) environment.

Keywords: 5D, BIM, GA, cost optimization

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Authors: Jong Hoon Kim, Hyun-Soo Lee, Moonseo Park, Min Jeong, Inbeom Lee

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Pre-construction is essential in achieving the success of a construction project. Due to the early involvement of project participants in the construction phase, project managers are able to plan ahead and solve issues well in advance leading to the success of the project and the satisfaction of the client. This research utilizes quantitative data derived from construction management projects in order to identify the relationship between pre-construction, construction schedule, and client satisfaction. A total of 65 construction projects and 93 clients were investigated for this research in an attempt to identify (a) the relationship between pre-construction and schedule reduction, and (b) pre-construction and client loyalty. Based on the quantitative analysis, this research was able to establish a negative correlation based on 65 construction projects between pre-construction and project schedule existed. This finding represents that the more pre-construction is performed for a certain project, the overall construction schedule decreased. Then, to determine the relationship between pre-construction and client satisfaction, Net Promoter Score (NPS) of 93 clients from the 65 projects was utilized. Pre-construction and NPS was further analyzed and a positive correlation was found between the two. This infers that clients tend to be more satisfied with projects with higher ratio of pre-construction than those projects with less pre-construction.

Keywords: client loyalty, NPS, pre-construction, schedule reduction

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Mario Matković

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Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that range-based volatility estimator outperforms both mean-variance and lower semi-variance model.

Keywords: variance, lower semi-variance, range-based volatility, MPT

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Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao

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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.

Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis

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Authors: Juan M. Rodriguez-Diaz

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The precision of parameter estimators in the Gaussian linear model is traditionally accounted by the variance-covariance matrix of the asymptotic distribution. However, this measure can underestimate the true variance, specially for small samples. Traditionally, optimal design theory pays attention to this variance through its relationship with the model's information matrix. For this reason it seems convenient, at least in some cases, adapt the optimality criteria in order to get the best designs for the actual variance structure, otherwise the loss in efficiency of the designs obtained with the traditional approach may be very important.

Keywords: correlated observations, information matrix, optimality criteria, variance-covariance matrix

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Authors: Dong-Ho Kim, Su-Sang Lim, Sang-Won Han, Chang-Taek Hyun

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In the construction site, the cost and schedules are the most important management elements. Despite efforts to integrated management the cost and schedule, WBS classification is struggling to differ from each other. The cost and schedule can be integrated and can be managed due to the characteristic of the detail system in the case of Korea around the axis of pressure and official fixture system. In this research, the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) integrating the cost and schedules around in government office construction, WBS which can be used in common was presented in order to analyze the detail system of the public institution construction and improve. As to this method, the efficient administration of not only the link application of the cost and schedule but also construction project is expected.

Keywords: WBS, EVMS, integrated cost and schedule, Korea case

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Authors: Hyeon-Seung Kim, Bit-Na Cho, Tae-Woon Jeong, Soo-Young Yoon, Leen-Seok Kang

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Recently, a construction project has been large in the size and complicated in the site work. The web-cameras are used to manage the construction site of such a large construction project. They can be used for monitoring the construction schedule as compared to the actual work image of the planned work schedule. Specially, because the 4D CAD system that the construction appearance is continually simulated in a 3D CAD object by work schedule is widely applied to the construction project, the comparison system between the real image of actual work appearance by web-camera and the simulated image of planned work appearance by 3D CAD object can be an intelligent construction schedule management system (ICON). The delayed activities comparing with the planned schedule can be simulated by red color in the ICON as a virtual reality object. This study developed the ICON and it was verified in a real bridge construction project in Korea. To verify the developed system, a web-camera was installed and operated in a case project for a month. Because the angle and zooming of the web-camera can be operated by Internet, a project manager can easily monitor and assume the corrective action.

Keywords: 4D CAD, web-camera, ICON (intelligent construction schedule management system), 3D object image

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Authors: Claudia Munoz, Henry Laniado

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In this research, the impact of outbound and return flight schedule preferences on airline choice for international trips is quantified. Several studies have used airline choice data to identify preferences and trade-offs of different air carrier service attributes, such as travel time, fare and frequencies. However, estimation of the effect return flight schedules have on airline choice for an international round-trip flight has not yet been studied in detail. The multinomial logit model found shows that airfare, travel time, arrival preference schedule in the outward journey, departure preference in the return journey and the schedule combination of round-trip flights are significantly affecting passenger choice behavior in international round-trip flights. it results indicated that return flight schedule preference plays a substantial role in air carrier choice and has a similar effect to outbound flight schedule preference. Thus, this study provides an analytical tool designed to provide a better understanding of international round-trip flight demand determinants and support carrier decisions.

Keywords: flight schedule, airline choice, return flight, passenger choice behavior

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Authors: Hsin-Yun Lee

Abstract:

In this study, the pedestrian simulation VISWALK integration and application platform ant algorithms written program made to construct a renovation engineering schedule planning mode. The use of simulation analysis platform construction site when the user running the simulation, after calculating the user walks in the case of construction delays, the ant algorithm to find out the minimum delay time schedule plan, and add volume and unit area deactivated loss of business computing, and finally to the owners and users of two different positions cut considerations pick out the best schedule planning. To assess and validate its effectiveness, this study constructed the model imported floor of a shopping mall floor renovation engineering cases. Verify that the case can be found from the mode of the proposed project schedule planning program can effectively reduce the delay time and the user's walking mall loss of business, the impact of the operation on the renovation engineering facilities in the building to a minimum.

Keywords: pedestrian, renovation, schedule, simulation

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Authors: Hideki Yoshikawa, Masahiro Kaminaga, Arimitsu Shikoda, Toshinori Suzuki

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Round addition differential fault analysis (DFA) using operation bypassing for lightweight block ciphers with on-the-fly key schedule is presented. For 64-bit KLEIN and 64-bit LED, it is shown that only a pair of correct ciphertext and faulty ciphertext can derive the secret master key. For PRESENT, one correct ciphertext and two faulty ciphertexts are required to reconstruct the secret key.

Keywords: differential fault analysis (DFA), round addition, block cipher, on-the-fly key schedule

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Authors: John White

Abstract:

This study investigated the effects of practice schedules on learning and performance in golf putting, specifically focusing on the impact of increasing contextual interference (CI). University students (n=7) were randomly assigned to blocked, random, or increasing practice schedules. During acquisition, participants performed 135 putting trials using different weighted golf balls. The blocked group followed a specific sequence of ball weights, while the random group practiced with the balls in a random order. The increasing group started with a blocked schedule, transitioned to a serial schedule, and concluded with a random schedule. Retention and transfer tests were conducted 24 hours later. The results indicated that high levels of CI (random practice) were more beneficial for learning than low levels of CI (blocked practice). The increasing practice schedule, incorporating blocked, serial, and random practice, demonstrated advantages over traditional blocked and random schedules. Additionally, EEG was used to explore the neurophysiological effects of the increasing practice schedule.

Keywords: skill acquisition, motor control, learning, contextual interference

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Authors: Chatelier Charlene, Oyegoke Adekunle, Ajayi Saheed, Jeffries Andrew

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This study seeks to understand Schedule Risk Assessments as a priori for better performance whilst exploring the strategies employed to deliver complex projects like the New Polar research ship. This high-profile vessel was offered to Natural Environment Research Council and British Antarctic Survey (BAS) by Cammell Laird Shipbuilders. The Research Ship was designed to support science in extreme environments, with the expectancy to provide a wide range of specialist scientific facilities, instruments, and laboratories to conduct research over multiple disciplines. Aim: The focus is to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk on such a Major Project. Hypothesising that "effective management of schedule risk management" could be the most critical factor in determining whether the intended benefits mentioned are delivered within time and cost constraints. Objective 1: Firstly, the study seeks to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk in Major Projects. Objective 2: Secondly, it explores "effective management of schedule risk management" as the most critical factor determining the delivery of intended benefits. Methodology: This study takes a retrospective review of schedule risk management and how it influences project performance using a case study approach for the RRS (Royal Research Ship) Sir David Attenborough. Research Contribution: The outcomes of this study will contribute to a better understanding of project performance whilst building on its under-researched relationship to schedule risk management for complex projects. The outcomes of this paper will guide further research on project performance and enable the understanding of how risk-based estimates over time impact the overall risk management of the project.

Keywords: complexity, major projects, performance management, schedule risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Saba Riaz, Syed A. Hussain

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This paper is addressing the estimation method of the unknown population variance of the variable of interest. A new generalized class of estimators of the finite population variance has been suggested using the auxiliary information. To improve the precision of the proposed class, known population variance of the auxiliary variable has been used. Mathematical expressions for the biases and the asymptotic variances of the suggested class are derived under large sample approximation. Theoretical and numerical comparisons are made to investigate the performances of the proposed class of estimators. The empirical study reveals that the suggested class of estimators performs better than the usual estimator, classical ratio estimator, classical product estimator and classical linear regression estimator. It has also been found that the suggested class of estimators is also more efficient than some recently published estimators.

Keywords: study variable, auxiliary variable, finite population variance, bias, asymptotic variance, percent relative efficiency

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Authors: V. Rao, A. Bedford

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As the efficient performance of national grid becomes increasingly important to maintain the electrical network stability, the balance between the generation and the demand must be effectively maintained. To do this, any losses that occur in the power network must be reduced by compensating for it. In this paper, one of the main cause for the losses in the network is identified as the variance, which hinders the grid’s power carrying capacity. The reason for the variance in the grid is investigated and identified as the rise in the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) such as wind and solar power. The intermittent nature of these RES along with fluctuating demands gives rise to variance in the electrical network. The losses that occur during this process is estimated by analyzing the network’s power profiles. Whilst researchers have identified different ways to tackle this problem, little consideration is given to energy storage. This paper seeks to redress this by considering the role of energy storage systems as potential solutions to reduce variance in the network. The implementation of suitable energy storage systems based on different applications is presented in this paper as part of variance reduction method and thus contribute towards maintaining a stable and efficient grid operation.

Keywords: energy storage, electrical losses, national grid, renewable energy, variance

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Authors: Kanate Pantusavase, Jaramporn Hassamontr

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This research aims to develop an algorithm to generate a schedule of multiple cranes that will maximize load throughputs in anodizing operation. The algorithm proposed utilizes an enumerative strategy to search for constant time between successive loads and crane covering range over baths. The computer program developed is able to generate a near-optimal crane schedule within reasonable times, i.e. within 10 minutes. Its results are compared with existing solutions from an aluminum extrusion industry. The program can be used to generate crane schedules for mixed products, thus allowing mixed-model line balancing to improve overall cycle times.

Keywords: crane scheduling, anodizing operations, cycle time minimization

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Authors: J. Ikome, M. Ndeley

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When a machine breakdown forces a Modified Flow Shop (MFS) out of the prescribed state, the proposed strategy reschedules part of the initial schedule to match up with the preschedule at some point. The objective is to create a new schedule that is consistent with the other production planning decisions like material flow, tooling and purchasing by utilizing the time critical decision making concept. We propose a new rescheduling strategy and a match-up point determination procedure through a feedback mechanism to increase both the schedule quality and stability. The proposed approach is compared with alternative reactive scheduling methods under different experimental settings.

Keywords: advanced critical task methods modified flow shop (MFS), Manufacturing, experiment, determination

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Authors: Martha E. Ndeley

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Operation management is the key element within the manufacturing process. However, during this process, there are a number of unforeseen disruptions that causes the process to a standstill which are, machine breakdown, employees absenteeism, improper scheduling. When this happens, it forces the shop flow to a rescheduling process and these strategy reschedules only a limited part of the initial schedule to match up with the pre-schedule at some point with the objective to create a new schedule that is reliable which in the long run gets disrupted. In this work, we have developed feedback control system that minimizes any form of disruption before the impact becomes severe, the model was tested in a paper manufacturing industries and the results revealed that, if the disruption is minimized at the initial state, the impact becomes unnoticeable.

Keywords: disruption, machine, absenteeism, scheduling

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Authors: Sangwon Han, Chengquan Jin

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Time-cost trade-off (TCTO) is one of the most significant part of construction project management. Despite the significance, current TCTO analysis, based on the Critical Path Method, does not consider resource constraint, and accordingly sometimes generates an impractical and/or infeasible schedule planning in terms of resource availability. Therefore, resource constraint needs to be considered when doing TCTO analysis. In this research, genetic algorithms (GA) based optimization model is created in order to find the optimal schedule. This model is utilized to compare four distinct scenarios (i.e., 1) initial CPM, 2) TCTO without considering resource constraint, 3) resource allocation after TCTO, and 4) TCTO with considering resource constraint) in terms of duration, cost, and resource utilization. The comparison results identify that ‘TCTO with considering resource constraint’ generates the optimal schedule with the respect of duration, cost, and resource. This verifies the need for consideration of resource constraint when doing TCTO analysis. It is expected that the proposed model will produce more feasible and optimal schedule.

Keywords: time-cost trade-off, genetic algorithms, critical path, resource availability

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Authors: Medya Fathi

Abstract:

When public transportation projects were delivered through design-bid-build and later design-build, governments found a serious issue: inadequate funding. With population growth, governments began to develop new arrangements in which the private sectors were involved to cut the financial burden. This arrangement, known as Public-Private Partnership (PPP), has its own risks; however, performance outputs can motivate or discourage its use. On top of such output's list are time and budget, which can be affected by the type of project delivery methods. Project completion within or ahead of schedule as well as within or under budget is among any owner’s objectives. With a higher application of PPP in the highway industry in the US and insufficient PPP research, the current study addresses the schedule and cost performance of PPP highway projects and determines which one outperforms the other. To meet this objective, after collecting performance data of all PPP projects, schedule growth and cost growth are calculated, and finally, statistical analysis is conducted to evaluate the PPP performance. The results and conclusions will be provided. This study can assist practitioners in applying PPP for transportation projects by showing its ability to save time and/or cost.

Keywords: cost, delivery method, highway, public-private partnership, schedule, transportation

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Authors: Kwan Hee Han

Abstract:

External environment of enterprise is rapidly changing majorly by global competition, cost reduction pressures, and new technology. In these situations, production scheduling function plays a critical role to meet customer requirements and to attain the goal of operational efficiency. It deals with short-term decision making in the production process of the whole supply chain. The major task of production scheduling is to seek a balance between customer orders and limited resources. In manufacturing companies, this task is so difficult because it should efficiently utilize resource capacity under the careful consideration of many interacting constraints. At present, many computerized software solutions have been utilized in many enterprises to generate a realistic production schedule to overcome the complexity of schedule generation. However, most production scheduling systems do not provide sufficient information about the validity of the generated schedule except limited statistics. Process mining only recently emerged as a sub-discipline of both data mining and business process management. Process mining techniques enable the useful analysis of a wide variety of processes such as process discovery, conformance checking, and bottleneck analysis. In this study, the performance of generated production schedule is evaluated by mining event log data of production scheduling software system by using the process mining techniques since every software system generates event logs for the further use such as security investigation, auditing and error bugging. An application of process mining approach is proposed for the validation of the goodness of production schedule generated by scheduling software systems in this study. By using process mining techniques, major evaluation criteria such as utilization of workstation, existence of bottleneck workstations, critical process route patterns, and work load balance of each machine over time are measured, and finally, the goodness of production schedule is evaluated. By using the proposed process mining approach for evaluating the performance of generated production schedule, the quality of production schedule of manufacturing enterprises can be improved.

Keywords: data mining, event log, process mining, production scheduling

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Authors: Akhmad F. K. Khitam, Yi Tai, Hsin-Yun Lee

Abstract:

In the modern research of construction management, the goals of scheduling are not only to finish the project within the limited duration, but also to improve the impact of people and environment. Especially for the impact to the pedestrian and vehicles, the considerable social cost should be estimated in the total performance of a construction project. However, the site environment has many differences between projects. These interactions affect the requirement and goal of scheduling. It is difficult for schedule planners to quantify these interactions. Therefore, this study use 3D dynamic simulation technology to plan the schedule of the construction engineering projects that affect the current space users (i.e., the pedestrians and vehicles). The proposed model can help the project manager find out the optimal schedule to minimize the inconvenience brought to the space users. Besides, a roadwork project and a building renovation project were analyzed for the practical situation of engineering and operations. Then this study integrates the proper optimization algorithms and computer technology to establish a decision support model. The proposed model can generate a near-optimal schedule solution for project planners.

Keywords: scheduling, simulation, optimization, pedestrian and vehicle behavior

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Authors: Amira M. Attia, Karim H. Youssef, Nabil H. Abbasy

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Energy consumption schedule (ECS) technique shifts usage of loads from on peak hours and redistributes them throughout the day according to residents’ operating time preferences. This technique is used as form of indirect control from utility to improve the load curve and hence its load factor and reduce customer’s total electric bill as well. Similarly, load shifting technique achieves ECS purposes but as direct control form applied from utility. In this paper, ECS is simulated twice as optimal constrained mathematical formula, solved by using CVX program in MATLAB^® R2013b. First, it is utilized for single residential building with ten apartments to determine max allowable energy consumption per hour for each residential apartment. Then, it is used for single apartment with number of shiftable domestic devices, where operating schedule is deduced using previous simulation output results as constraints. The paper ends by giving differences between ECS technique and load shifting technique via literature and simulation. Based on results assessment, it will be shown whether using ECS or load shifting is more beneficial to both customer and utility.

Keywords: energy consumption schedule, load shifting, comparison, demand side mangement

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Authors: T. Kizza, M. Muyinda

Abstract:

Irrigation schedules are normally given in terms of frequency (irrigation days). Specific timings within a given day are not usually included. This study examined the effect of irrigation timing for a two-day irrigation schedule of a surface drip-irrigated tomato field on yield. It was carried out for three dry seasons; July-Sept 2016, Jan-April 2017 and Jan-March 2018, at MuZARDI research station. Four irrigation treatments; T1 morning (8.00hrs), T2 noon (12:00hrs), T3 evening (17:00hr) and T4, a combination of morning and evening, were evaluated. The irrigation duration was one hour for T1-T3 and split into 30 minutes for T4. First season results indicated noon watering as having the best yield over other treatments at 51.59t/ha followed closely by morning watering at 50.6t/ha. Plants watered at noon had the highest number of fruits at 19/plant with an average weight of 94g/fruit. Plants watered in the morning had fruits with the highest average weight at 111.2g/fruit but they were the lowest number at 16 fruits/plant. The three-season data indicated the highest yield at 45.9t/ha for morning watering, followed by noon watering at 44.3t/ha and the least yield was for evening watering at 40.9t/ha. Watering tomatoes in the morning will give optimum yields for a two-day irrigation schedule.

Keywords: drip irrigation, irrigation schedule, irrigation timing, tomato yield

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In construction projects, predicting project performance metrics accurately is essential for effective management and successful delivery. However, conventional methods often depend on fixed baseline plans, disregarding the evolving nature of project progress and external influences. To address this issue, we introduce a distinct approach based on machine learning to forecast key performance indicators, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category within an urban road reconstruction project. Our proposed model leverages time series forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance by analyzing historical data and project progress. Additionally, the model incorporates external factors, including weather patterns and resource availability, as features to improve forecast accuracy. By harnessing the predictive capabilities of machine learning, our performance forecasting model enables project managers to proactively identify potential deviations from the baseline plan and take timely corrective measures. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we conduct a case study on an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's predictions with actual project performance data. The outcomes of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry by providing a data-driven solution for enhancing project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, schedule variance, earned value management

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Authors: Rihab Belguith, Fathi Abid

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The paper develops a system-based approach to investigate the dynamic adjustment of debt structure and investment policies of the Dow-Jones index. This approach enables the assessment of relations among sales, debt, and investment opportunities by considering the simultaneous effect of the market environmental change and future growth opportunities. We integrate the firm-specific sales variance to capture the industries' conditions in the model. Empirical results were obtained through a panel data set of firms with different sectors. The analysis support that environmental change does not affect equally the different industry since operating leverage differs among industries and so the sensitivity to sales variance. Including adjusted-specific variance, we find that there is no monotonic relation between leverage, sales, and investment. The firm may choose a low debt level in response to high sales variance but high leverage to attenuate the negative relation between sales variance and the current level of investment. We further find that while the overall effect of debt maturity on leverage is unaffected by the level of growth opportunities, the shorter the maturity of debt is, the smaller the direct effect of sales variance on investment.

Keywords: dynamic panel, investment, leverage decision, sales uncertainty

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