Search results for: scenarios

Authors: Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz, Rodrigo C. Vergara, Vladimir López, Domingo Mery, Diego Cosmelli

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Our daily interaction with computational interfaces is plagued of situations in which we go from inexperienced users to experts through self-motivated exploration of the same task. In many of these interactions, we must learn to find our way through a sequence of decisions and actions before obtaining the desired result. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion so that a specific sequence of actions must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as they become experts in the use of such interfaces, do users adopt specific search and learning strategies? Moreover, if so, can we use this information to follow the process of expertise development and, eventually, predict future actions? This would be a critical step towards building truly adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Furthermore, it could provide a window into potential mechanisms underlying decision-making behavior in real world scenarios. Here we tackle this question using a simple game interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT) sequential decision-making task. Participants have to explore the interface and discover an underlying concept-icon mapping in order to complete the game. We develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based approach whereby a set of stereotyped, hierarchically related search behaviors act as hidden states. Using this model, we are able to track the decision-making process as participants explore, learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into such stereotyped strategies is sufficient to capture a host of exploratory and learning behaviors. Moreover, using the modular architecture of stereotyped strategies as a Mixture of Experts, we are able to simultaneously ask the experts about the user's most probable future actions. We show that for those participants that learn the task, it becomes possible to predict their next decision, above chance, approximately halfway through the game. Our long-term goal is, on the basis of a better understanding of real-world decision-making processes, to inform the construction of interfaces that can establish dynamic conversations with their users in order to facilitate the development of expertise.

Keywords: behavioral modeling, expertise acquisition, hidden markov models, sequential decision-making

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Authors: Raymond K. Jonkers

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The present study investigated approaches and techniques to enhance strategic management governance and decision making within the framework of a performance-based balanced scorecard. The review of best practices from strategic, program, process, and systems engineering management provided for a holistic approach toward effective outcome-based capability management. One technique, based on factorial experimental design methods, was used to develop an empirical model. This model predicted the degree of capability effectiveness and is dependent on controlled system input variables and their weightings. These variables represent business performance measures, captured within a strategic balanced scorecard. The weighting of these measures enhances the ability to quantify causal relationships within balanced scorecard strategy maps. The focus in this study was on the performance of tangible assets within the scorecard rather than the traditional approach of assessing performance of intangible assets such as knowledge and technology. Tangible assets are represented in this study as physical systems, which may be thought of as being aboard a ship or within a production facility. The measures assigned to these systems include project funding for upgrades against demand, system certifications achieved against those required, preventive maintenance to corrective maintenance ratios, and material support personnel capacity against that required for supporting respective systems. The resultant scorecard is viewed as complimentary to the traditional balanced scorecard for program and performance management. The benefits from these scorecards are realized through the quantified state of operational capabilities or outcomes. These capabilities are also weighted in terms of priority for each distinct system measure and aggregated and visualized in terms of overall state of capabilities achieved. This study proposes the use of interactive controls within the scorecard as a technique to enhance development of alternative solutions in decision making. These interactive controls include those for assigning capability priorities and for adjusting system performance measures, thus providing for what-if scenarios and options in strategic decision-making. In this holistic approach to capability management, several cross functional processes were highlighted as relevant amongst the different management disciplines. In terms of assessing an organization’s ability to adopt this approach, consideration was given to the P3M3 management maturity model.

Keywords: management, systems, performance, scorecard

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Authors: Stephanie Chen, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

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To describe and propagate the behavior of a system mathematical models are formulated. Parameter identification is used to adapt the coefficients of the underlying laws of science. For complex systems this approach can be incomplete and hence imprecise and moreover too slow to be computed efficiently. Therefore, these models might be not applicable for the numerical optimization of real systems, since these techniques require numerous evaluations of the models. Moreover not all quantities necessary for the identification might be available and hence the system must be adapted manually. Therefore, an approach is described that generates models that overcome the before mentioned limitations by not focusing on physical laws, but on measured (sensor) data of real systems. The approach is more general since it generates models for every system detached from the scientific background. Additionally, this approach can be used in a more general sense, since it is able to automatically identify correlations in the data. The method can be classified as a multivariate data regression analysis. In contrast to many other data regression methods this variant is also able to identify correlations of products of variables and not only of single variables. This enables a far more precise and better representation of causal correlations. The basis and the explanation of this method come from an analytical background: the series expansion. Another advantage of this technique is the possibility of real-time adaptation of the generated models during operation. Herewith system changes due to aging, wear or perturbations from the environment can be taken into account, which is indispensable for realistic scenarios. Since these data driven models can be evaluated very efficiently and with high precision, they can be used in mathematical optimization algorithms that minimize a cost function, e.g. time, energy consumption, operational costs or a mixture of them, subject to additional constraints. The proposed method has successfully been tested in several complex applications and with strong industrial requirements. The generated models were able to simulate the given systems with an error in precision less than one percent. Moreover the automatic identification of the correlations was able to discover so far unknown relationships. To summarize the above mentioned approach is able to efficiently compute high precise and real-time-adaptive data-based models in different fields of industry. Combined with an effective mathematical optimization algorithm like WORHP (We Optimize Really Huge Problems) several complex systems can now be represented by a high precision model to be optimized within the user wishes. The proposed methods will be illustrated with different examples.

Keywords: adaptive modeling, automatic identification of correlations, data based modeling, optimization

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Authors: Elena Listo Ubeda, Miguel Marchamalo Sacristan

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The demand for water doubles every twenty years, at a rate which is twice as fast as the world´s population growth. Despite it´s great importance, water is one of the most degraded natural resources in the world, mainly because of the reduction of natural vegetation coverage, population growth, contamination and changes in the soil use which reduces its capacity to collect water. This situation is especially serious in Central America, as reflected in the Human Development reports. The objective of this project is to assist in the improvement of water production and quality in Central America. In order to do these two watersheds in Costa Rica were selected as experiments: that of the Virilla-Durazno River, located in the extreme north east of the central valley which has an Atlantic influence; and that of the Jabillo River, which flows directly into the Pacific. The Virilla river watershed is located over andisols, and that of the Jabillo River is over alfisols, and both are of great importance for water supply to the Greater Metropolitan Area and the future tourist resorts respectively, as well as for the production of agriculture, livestock and hydroelectricity. The hydrological reaction in different soil-cover complexes, varying from the secondary forest to natural vegetation and degraded pasture, was analyzed according to the evaluation of the properties of the soil, infiltration, soil compaction, as well as the effects of the soil cover complex on erosion, calculated by the C factor of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). A water balance was defined for each watershed, in which the volume of water that enters and leaves were estimated, as well as the evapotranspiration, runoff, and infiltration. Two future scenarios, representing the implementation of reforestation and deforestation plans, were proposed, and were analyzed for the effects of the soil cover complex on the water balance in each case. The results obtained show an increase of the ground water recharge in the humid forest areas, and an extension of the study of the dry areas is proposed since the ground water recharge here is diminishing. These results are of great significance for the planning, design of Payment Schemes for Environmental Services and the improvement of the existing water supply systems. In Central America spatial planning is a priority, as are the watersheds, in order to assess the water resource socially and economically, and securing its availability for the future.

Keywords: Costa Rica, infiltration, soil, water

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Authors: Fouzia Brihmat

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Economic planning models, which are used to build microgrids and distributed energy resources, are the current norm for expressing such confidence (DER). These models often decide both short-term DER dispatch and long-term DER investments. This research investigates the most cost-effective hybrid (photovoltaic-diesel) renewable energy system (HRES) based on Total Net Present Cost (TNPC) in an Algerian Saharan area, which has a high potential for solar irradiation and has a production capacity of 1GW/h. Lead-acid batteries have been around much longer and are easier to understand, but have limited storage capacity. Lithium-ion batteries last longer, are lighter, but generally more expensive. By combining the advantages of each chemistry, we produce cost-effective high-capacity battery banks that operate solely on AC coupling. The financial implications of this research describe the corrosion process that occurs at the interface between the active material and grid material of the positive plate of a lead-acid battery. The best cost study for the HRES is completed with the assistance of the HOMER Pro MATLAB Link. Additionally, during the course of the project's 20 years, the system is simulated for each time step. In this model, which takes into consideration decline in solar efficiency, changes in battery storage levels over time, and rises in fuel prices above the rate of inflation. The trade-off is that the model is more accurate, but it took longer to compute. As a consequence, the model is more precise, but the computation takes longer. We initially utilized the Optimizer to run the model without MultiYear in order to discover the best system architecture. The optimal system for the single-year scenario is the Danvest generator, which has 760 kW, 200 kWh of the necessary quantity of lead-acid storage, and a somewhat lower COE of $0.309/kWh. Different scenarios that account for fluctuations in the gasified biomass generator's production of electricity have been simulated, and various strategies to guarantee the balance between generation and consumption have been investigated. The technological optimization of the same system has been finished and is being reviewed in a recent paper study.

Keywords: battery, corrosion, diesel, economic planning optimization, hybrid energy system, lead-acid battery, multi-year planning, microgrid, price forecast, PV, total net present cost

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Authors: S. Jamshidi, E. Feizi Ashtiani, M. Ardestani, A. Feizi Ashtiani

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Waste load allocation (WLA) strategies usually intend to find economical policies for water resource management. Water quality trading (WQT) is an approach that uses discharge permit market to reduce total environmental protection costs. This primarily requires assigning discharge limits known as total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). These are determined by monitoring organizations with respect to the receiving water quality and remediation capabilities. The purpose of this study is to compare two approaches of TMDL assignment for WQT policy in small catchment area of Haraz River, in north of Iran. At first, TMDLs are assigned uniformly for the whole point sources to keep the concentrations of BOD and dissolved oxygen (DO) at the standard level at checkpoint (terminus point). This was simply simulated and controlled by Qual2kw software. In the second scenario, TMDLs are assigned using multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) method in which the environmental violation at river basin and total treatment costs are minimized simultaneously. In both scenarios, the equity index and the WLA based on trading discharge permits (TDP) are calculated. The comparative results showed that using economically optimized TMDLs (2nd scenario) has slightly more cost savings rather than uniform TMDL approach (1st scenario). The former annually costs about 1 M$ while the latter is 1.15 M$. WQT can decrease these annual costs to 0.9 and 1.1 M$, respectively. In other word, these approaches may save 35 and 45% economically in comparison with command and control policy. It means that using multi objective decision support systems (DSS) may find more economical WLA, however its outcome is not necessarily significant in comparison with uniform TMDLs. This may be due to the similar impact factors of dischargers in small catchments. Conversely, using uniform TMDLs for WQT brings more equity that makes stakeholders not feel that much envious of difference between TMDL and WQT allocation. In addition, for this case, determination of TMDLs uniformly would be much easier for monitoring. Consequently, uniform TMDL for TDP market is recommended as a sustainable approach. However, economical TMDLs can be used for larger watersheds.

Keywords: waste load allocation (WLA), water quality trading (WQT), total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), Haraz River, multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), equity

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Authors: Kumar Shashvat, Amol P. Bhondekar

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In the midst of the five senses, odor is the most reminiscent and least understood. Odor testing has been mysterious and odor data fabled to most practitioners. The delinquent of recognition and classification of odor is important to achieve. The facility to smell and predict whether the artifact is of further use or it has become undesirable for consumption; the imitation of this problem hooked on a model is of consideration. The general industrial standard for this classification is color based anyhow; odor can be improved classifier than color based classification and if incorporated in machine will be awfully constructive. For cataloging of odor for peas, trees and cashews various discriminative approaches have been used Discriminative approaches offer good prognostic performance and have been widely used in many applications but are incapable to make effectual use of the unlabeled information. In such scenarios, generative approaches have better applicability, as they are able to knob glitches, such as in set-ups where variability in the series of possible input vectors is enormous. Generative models are integrated in machine learning for either modeling data directly or as a transitional step to form an indeterminate probability density function. The algorithms or models Linear Discriminant Analysis and Naive Bayes Classifier have been used for classification of the odor of cashews. Linear Discriminant Analysis is a method used in data classification, pattern recognition, and machine learning to discover a linear combination of features that typifies or divides two or more classes of objects or procedures. The Naive Bayes algorithm is a classification approach base on Bayes rule and a set of qualified independence theory. Naive Bayes classifiers are highly scalable, requiring a number of restraints linear in the number of variables (features/predictors) in a learning predicament. The main recompenses of using the generative models are generally a Generative Models make stronger assumptions about the data, specifically, about the distribution of predictors given the response variables. The Electronic instrument which is used for artificial odor sensing and classification is an electronic nose. This device is designed to imitate the anthropological sense of odor by providing an analysis of individual chemicals or chemical mixtures. The experimental results have been evaluated in the form of the performance measures i.e. are accuracy, precision and recall. The investigational results have proven that the overall performance of the Linear Discriminant Analysis was better in assessment to the Naive Bayes Classifier on cashew dataset.

Keywords: odor classification, generative models, naive bayes, linear discriminant analysis

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Authors: Noreen Pulte

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Prior to the 'Back to Sleep' Campaign in 1992, 1 of every 300 infants seen by Advanced Practice Providers had plagiocephaly. Insufficient attention is given to plagiocephaly and brachycephaly diagnoses in practice and pediatric education. In this talk, Nurse Practitioners and Pediatric Providers will be able to: (1) identify red flags associated with head shape abnormalities, (2) learn techniques they can teach parents to prevent head shape abnormalities, and (3) differentiate between plagiocephaly, brachycephaly, and craniosynostosis. The presenter is a Primary Care Pediatric Nurse Practitioner at Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago and the primary provider for its head shape abnormality clinics. She will help participants translate key information obtained from birth history, review of systems, and developmental history to understand risk factors for head shape abnormalities and progression of deformities. Synostotic and non-synostotic head shapes will be explained to help participants differentiate plagiocephaly and brachycephaly from synostotic head shapes. This knowledge is critical for the prompt referral of infants with craniosynostosis for surgical evaluation and correction. Rapid referral for craniosynostosis can possibly direct the patient to a minimally invasive surgical procedure versus a craniectomy. As for plagiocephaly and brachycephaly, this timely referral can also aid in a physical therapy referral if necessitated, which treats torticollis and aids in improving head shape. A well-timed referral to a head shape clinic can possibly eliminate the need for a helmet and/or minimize the time in a helmet. Practitioners will learn the importance of obtaining head measurements using calipers. The presenter will explain head calculations and how the calculations are interpreted to determine the severity of the head shape abnormalities. Severity defines the treatment plan. Participants will learn when to refer patients to a head shape abnormality clinic and techniques they should teach parents to perform while waiting for the referral appointment. The purpose, mechanics, and logistics of helmet therapy, including optimal time to initiate helmet therapy, recommended helmet wear-time, and tips for helmet therapy compliance, will be described. Case scenarios will be incorporated into the presenter's presentation to support learning. The salient points of the case studies will be explained and discussed. Practitioners will be able to immediately translate the knowledge and skills gained in this presentation into their clinical practice.

Keywords: plagiocephaly, brachycephaly, craniosynostosis, red flags

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Authors: Nicolaas Unland, John Webb

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The acidification and mobilisation of metals during the oxidation of acid sulfate soils exposed during lake bed drying is an increasingly common phenomenon under climate scenarios with reduced rainfall. In order to assess the risk of generating high concentrations of acidity and dissolved metals, chromium suite analysis are fundamental, but sometimes limited in characterising the potential risks they pose. This study combines such fundamental test work, along with incubation tests and 1D modelling to investigate the risks associated with the drying of Third Reedy Lake in South East Australia. Core samples were collected from a variable depth of 0.5 m below the lake bed, at 19 locations across the lake’s footprint, using a boat platform. Samples were subjected to a chromium suite of analysis, including titratable actual acidity, chromium reducible sulfur and acid neutralising capacity. Concentrations of reduced sulfur up to 0.08 %S and net acidities up to 0.15 %S indicate that acid sulfate soils have formed on the lake bed during permanent inundation over the last century. A further sub-set of samples were prepared in 7 columns and subject to accelerated heating, drying and wetting over a period of 64 days in laboratory. Results from the incubation trial indicate that while pyrite oxidation proceeded, minimal change to soil pH or the acidity of leachate occurred, suggesting that the internal buffering capacity of lake bed sediments was sufficient to neutralise a large proportion of the acidity produced. A 1D mass balance model was developed to assess potential changes in lake water quality during drying based on the results of chromium suite and incubation tests. Results from the above test work and modelling suggest that acid sulfate soils pose a moderate to low risk to the Third Reedy Lake system. Further, the risks can be effectively managed during the initial stages of lake drying via flushing with available mildly alkaline water. The study finds that while test work such as chromium suite analysis are fundamental in characterizing acid sulfate soil environments, they can the overestimate risks associated with the soils. Subsequent incubation test work may more accurately characterise such soils and lead to better-informed management strategies.

Keywords: acid sulfate soil, incubation, management, model, risk

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Authors: O. E. Akinyemi, P. O. Alege, O. O. Ajayi, L. A. Amaghionyediwe, A. A. Ogundipe

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Nigeria as an oil-producing developing country in Africa is one of the many countries that had been subsidizing consumption of fossil fuel. Despite the numerous advantage of this policy ranging from increased energy access, fostering economic and industrial development, protecting the poor households from oil price shocks, political considerations, among others; they have been found to impose economic cost, wasteful, inefficient, create price distortions discourage investment in the energy sector and contribute to environmental pollution. These negative consequences coupled with the fact that the policy had not been very successful at achieving some of its stated objectives, led to a number of organisations and countries such as the Group of 7 (G7), World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency (IEA), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), among others call for global effort towards reforming fossil fuel subsidies. This call became necessary in view of seeking ways to harmonise certain existing policies which may by design hamper current effort at tackling environmental concerns such as climate change. This is in addition to driving a green growth strategy and low carbon development in achieving sustainable development. The energy sector is identified to play a vital role. This study thus investigates the prospects of using fuel subsidy reform as a viable tool in driving an economy that de-emphasizes carbon growth in Nigeria. The method used is the Johansen and Engle-Granger two-step Co-integration procedure in order to investigate the existence or otherwise of a long-run equilibrium relationship for the period 1971 to 2011. Its theoretical framework is rooted in the Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) hypothesis. In developing three case scenarios (case of subsidy payment, no subsidy payment and effective subsidy), findings from the study supported evidence of a long run sustainable equilibrium model. Also, estimation results reflected that the first and the second scenario do not significantly influence the indicator of environmental quality. The implication of this is that in reforming fuel subsidy to drive environmental quality for an economy like Nigeria, strong and effective regulatory framework (measure that was interacted with fuel subsidy to yield effective subsidy) is essential.

Keywords: environmental quality, fuel subsidy, green growth, low carbon growth strategy

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Authors: Al-Juhaishi Mohammed, Mikael Motelica-Heino, Fabrice Muller, Audrey Guirimand-Dufour, Christian Défarge

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This study aims at improving the urban hydrological cycle of the Orléans agglomeration (France) and understanding the relationship between physical and chemical parameters of urban surface runoff and the hydrological conditions. In particular water quality parameters such as pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, major dissolved cations and anions, and chemical and biological oxygen demands were monitored for three types of urban water discharges (wastewater treatment plant output (WWTP), storm overflow and stormwater outfall) under two hydrologic scenarii (dry and wet weather). The first results were obtained over a period of five months.Each investigated (Ormes and l’Egoutier) outfall represents an urban runoff source that receives water from runoff roads, gutters, the irrigation of gardens and other sources of flow over the Earth’s surface that drains in its catchments and carries it to the Loire River. In wet weather conditions there is rain water runoff and an additional input from the roof gutters that have entered the stormwater system during rainfall. For the comparison the results La Chilesse is a storm overflow that was selected in our study as a potential source of waste water which is located before the (WWTP).The comparison of the physical-chemical parameters (total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), concentration of major cations and anions) together with the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD) helped to characterize sources of runoff waters in the different watersheds. It also helped to highlight the infiltration of wastewater in some stormwater systems that reject directly in the Loire River. The values of the conductivity measured in the outflow of Ormes were always higher than those measured in the other two outlets. The results showed a temporal variation for the Ormes outfall of conductivity from 1465 µS cm-1 in the dry weather flow to 650 µS cm-1 in the wet weather flow and also a spatial variation in the wet weather flow from 650 µS cm-1 in the Ormes outfall to 281 μS cm-1 in L’Egouttier outfall. The ultimate BOD (BOD28) showed a significant decrease in La Corne outfall from 210 mg L-1 in the wet weather flow to 75 mg L-1 in the dry weather flow because of the nutrient load that was transported by the runoff.

Keywords: BOD, COD, the Loire River, urban hydrology, urban dry and wet weather discharges, macronutrients

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Authors: Sunghun Jung, Wonkook Kim

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Due to the difficulty of the utilization of satellite and an aircraft, conventional ocean color remote sensing has a disadvantage in that it is difficult to obtain images of desired places at desired times. These disadvantages make it difficult to capture the anomalies such as the occurrence of the red tide which requires immediate observation. It is also difficult to understand the phenomena such as the resuspension-precipitation process of suspended solids and the spread of low-salinity water originating in the coastal areas. For the remote sensing reflectance of seawater, above-water radiometers (AWR) have been used either by carrying portable AWRs on a ship or installing those at fixed observation points on the Ieodo ocean research station, Socheongcho base, and etc. In particular, however, it requires the high cost to measure the remote reflectance in various seawater environments at various times and it is even not possible to measure it at the desired frequency in the desired sea area at the desired time. Also, in case of the stationary observation, it is advantageous that observation data is continuously obtained, but there is the disadvantage that data of various sea areas cannot be obtained. It is possible to instantly capture various marine phenomena occurring on the coast using the unmanned aerial system (UAS) including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) type unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) since it could move and hover at the one location and acquire data of the desired form at a high resolution. To remotely estimate seawater constituents, it is necessary to install an ultra-spectral sensor. Also, to calculate reflected light from the surface of the sea in consideration of the sun’s incident light, a total of three sensors need to be installed on the UAV. The remote sensing reflectance of seawater is the most basic optical property for remotely estimating color components in seawater and we could remotely estimate the chlorophyll concentration, the suspended solids concentration, and the dissolved organic amount. Estimating seawater physics from the remote sensing reflectance requires the algorithm development using the accumulation data of seawater reflectivity under various seawater and atmospheric conditions. The UAS with three AWRs is developed for the remote reflection sensing on the surface of the sea. Throughout the paper, we explain the details of each UAS component, system operation scenarios, and simulation and experiment results. The UAS consists of a UAV, a solar tracker, a transmitter, a ground control station (GCS), three AWRs, and two gimbals.

Keywords: above-water radiometers (AWR), ground control station (GCS), unmanned aerial system (UAS), unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)

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Authors: Kurniawan Adha, Wan Ismail Wan Yusoff, Luluan Almanna Lubis

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Preventing hazardous events during oil and gas operation is an important contribution of accurate pore pressure data. The availability of pore pressure data also contribute in reducing the operation cost. Suggested methods in pore pressure estimation were mostly complex by the many assumptions and hypothesis used. Basic properties which may have significant impact on estimation model are somehow being neglected. To date, most of pore pressure determinations are estimated by data model analysis and rarely include laboratory analysis, stratigraphy study or core check measurement. Basically, this study developed a model that might be applied to investigate the changes of pore pressure and effective stress due to hydrocarbon production. In general, this paper focused velocity model effect of pore pressure and effective stress changes due to hydrocarbon production with illustrated by changes in saturation. The core samples from Miri field from Sarawak Malaysia ware used in this study, where the formation consists of sandstone reservoir. The study area is divided into sixteen (16) layers and encompassed six facies (A-F) from the outcrop that is used for stratigraphy sequence model. The experimental work was firstly involving data collection through field study and developing stratigraphy sequence model based on outcrop study. Porosity and permeability measurements were then performed after samples were cut into 1.5 inch diameter core samples. Next, velocity was analyzed using SONIC OYO and AutoLab 500. Three (3) scenarios of saturation were also conducted to exhibit the production history of the samples used. Results from this study show the alterations of velocity for different saturation with different actions of effective stress and pore pressure. It was observed that sample with water saturation has the highest velocity while dry sample has the lowest value. In comparison with oil to samples with oil saturation, water saturated sample still leads with the highest value since water has higher fluid density than oil. Furthermore, water saturated sample exhibits velocity derived parameters, such as poisson’s ratio and P-wave velocity over S-wave velocity (Vp/Vs) The result shows that pore pressure value ware reduced due to the decreasing of fluid content. The decreasing of pore pressure result may soften the elastic mineral frame and have tendency to possess high velocity. The alteration of pore pressure by the changes in fluid content or saturation resulted in alteration of velocity value that has proportionate trend with the effective stress.

Keywords: pore pressure, effective stress, production, miri formation

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Authors: Mina Sadat Orooje, Mohammad Mehdi Latifi, Behnam Fereydooni Eftekhari

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The integration of cutting-edge Internet of Things (IoT) technologies with advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems is revolutionizing healthcare facility management. However, the current landscape of hospital building maintenance suffers from slow, repetitive, and disjointed processes, leading to significant financial, resource, and time losses. Additionally, the potential of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in facility maintenance is hindered by a lack of data within digital models of built environments, necessitating a more streamlined data collection process. This paper presents a robust framework that harmonizes AI with BIM-IoT technology to elevate healthcare Facility Maintenance Management (FMM) and address these pressing challenges. The methodology begins with a thorough literature review and requirements analysis, providing insights into existing technological landscapes and associated obstacles. Extensive data collection and analysis efforts follow to deepen understanding of hospital infrastructure and maintenance records. Critical AI algorithms are identified to address predictive maintenance, anomaly detection, and optimization needs alongside integration strategies for BIM and IoT technologies, enabling real-time data collection and analysis. The framework outlines protocols for data processing, analysis, and decision-making. A prototype implementation is executed to showcase the framework's functionality, followed by a rigorous validation process to evaluate its efficacy and gather user feedback. Refinement and optimization steps are then undertaken based on evaluation outcomes. Emphasis is placed on the scalability of the framework in real-world scenarios and its potential applications across diverse healthcare facility contexts. Finally, the findings are meticulously documented and shared within the healthcare and facility management communities. This framework aims to significantly boost maintenance efficiency, cut costs, provide decision support, enable real-time monitoring, offer data-driven insights, and ultimately enhance patient safety and satisfaction. By tackling current challenges in healthcare facility maintenance management it paves the way for the adoption of smarter and more efficient maintenance practices in healthcare facilities.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, building information modeling, healthcare facility maintenance, internet of things integration, maintenance efficiency

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Authors: Mónika Ditta Tóth, Ádám Fritz, Balázs Hankó, György Purebl

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Communication training about depression and suicide prevention for pharmacists – A Hungarian pilot study Mónika Ditta Tóth1, Ádám Fritz2, Balázs Hankó2, György Purebl1 1: Semmelweis University, Institute of Behavioural Sciences 2: Semmelweis University, University Pharmacy Department of Pharmacy Administration Background: Suicide rates in Hungary have been one of the highest in the European Union. Depression is one of the main risk factors for suicide and recognizing and treating depression is an effective way to prevent suicidal behaviour. In their daily practice, pharmacists meet patients with high risk of mental health problems. Therefore they have a key role in the prevention of depression and suicide. Aim: The main aim of this study is to raise pharmacists’ awareness about depression and suicide to enable better recognation of verbal and non-verbal signs of these deseases. Another important objective is to reduce their stigma about depression and increase their confidence in communication with depressed and/or suicidal patients. Methods: A 3-hour communication workshop has been delivered in this pilot study about the reasons, trigger factors, verbal and non-verbal signs of depression and suicide. The training includes communication techniques which have been developed to patients needs, as well as role-playing scenarios. Depression Stigma and Morris Confidence Scales were applied before, after and 6 weeks following the training. The results of the training group are then compared with two of the following pharmacist groups: 1. written material only (N=15), 2. no material (N=15). Results: One-way ANOVA revealed significant differences in the training group regarding the level of confidence in treating and communicating with patients with depression and/or suicide following the training, and after 6 weeks (F(2, 24)= 7,135, p=,004; baseline: 20,37, after training: 30,00, follow up: 27,66). After the 3-hour workshop the personal stigma about depression decreased (baselin: 19,75 after training: 17,00, p=0,075) in the training group (N=9), whilst the perceived stigma did not change (before: 33.54, after: 33,44, p=NS). Trainees assessed the workshop as ‘useful’ and ‘gap filling’. No significant differences was found in the group of pharmacisists who got written material only. Conclusions: Despite the high rates of depression and suicide in Hungary, pharmacists do not receive lectures or seminars about mental health during their university studies. Such half-day workshops could fill this gap and give practical help to recognize and communicate with depressed and/or suicidal patients in a more effective way. This way pharmacists, as community gate-keepers, could contribute to a more effective suicide prevention program in Hungary.

Keywords: communication training, pharmacists, depression, suicide

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Authors: Yufeng Wu, Yifan Gu, Bin Li, Wei Wang

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Resource recycling process contains a subsystem with interactions of three dimensions including coupling allocation of primary and secondary resources, responsibility coordination of stakeholders in forward and reverse supply chains, and trans-boundary transfer of hidden resource and environmental responsibilities between regions. Overlap or lack of responsibilities is easy to appear at the intersection of the three management dimensions. It is urgent to make an overall design of the policy system for recycling resources. From theoretical perspective, this paper analyzes the unique external differences of resource and environment in various dimensions and explores the reason why the effects of trans-dimensional policies are strongly correlated. Taking the example of the copper resources contained in the waste electrical and electronic equipment, this paper constructs reduction effect accounting model of resources recycling and set four trans-dimensional policy scenarios including resources tax and environmental tax reform of the raw and secondary resources, application of extended producer responsibility system, promotion of clean development mechanism, and strict entry barriers of imported wastes. In these ways, the paper simulates the impact effect of resources recycling process on resource deduction and emission reduction of waste water and gas, and constructs trans-dimensional policy mix scenario through integrating dominant strategy. The results show that combined application of various dimensional policies can achieve incentive compatibility and the trans-dimensional policy mix scenario can reach a better effect. Compared with baseline scenario, this scenario will increase 91.06% copper resources reduction effect and improve emission reduction of waste water and gas by eight times from 2010 to 2030. This paper further analyzes the development orientation of policies in various dimension. In resource dimension, the combined application of compulsory, market and authentication methods should be promoted to improve the use ratio of secondary resources. In supply chain dimension, resource value, residual functional value and potential information value contained in waste products should be fully excavated to construct a circular business system. In regional dimension, it should give full play to the comparative advantages of manufacturing power to improve China’s voice in resource recycling in the world.

Keywords: resource recycling, trans-dimension, policy design, incentive compatibility, life cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Volker Landersheim, Daria Manushyna, Thinh Pham, Dai-Duong Tran, Thomas Geury, Omar Hegazy, Steven Wilkins

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Air pollution is one of the emerging problems in our society. Targets of reduction of CO₂ emissions address low-carbon and resource-efficient transport. (Plug-in) hybrid electric propulsion concepts offer the possibility to reduce total cost of ownership (TCO) and emissions for public transport vehicles (e.g., bus application). In this context, typically, diesel engines are used to form the hybrid propulsion system of the vehicle. Though the technological development of diesel engines experience major advantages, some challenges such as the high amount of particle emissions remain relevant. Gaseous fuels (i.e., compressed natural gases (CNGs) or liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs) represent an attractive alternative to diesel because of their composition. In the framework of the research project 'Optimised Real-world Cost-Competitive Modular Hybrid Architecture' (ORCA), which was funded by the EU, two different hybrid-electric propulsion concepts have been investigated: one using a diesel engine as internal combustion engine and one using CNG as fuel. The aim of the current study is to analyze specific benefits for the aforementioned hybrid propulsion systems for predefined driving scenarios with regard to emissions and total cost of ownership in bus application. Engine models based on experimental data for diesel and CNG were developed. For the purpose of designing optimal energy management strategies for each propulsion system, maps-driven or quasi-static models for specific engine types are used in the simulation framework. An analogous modelling approach has been chosen to represent emissions. This paper compares the two concepts regarding their CO₂ and NOx emissions. This comparison is performed for relevant bus missions (urban, suburban, with and without zero-emission zone) and with different energy management strategies. In addition to the emissions, also the downsizing potential of the combustion engine has been analysed to minimize the powertrain TCO (pTCO) for plug-in hybrid electric buses. The results of the performed analyses show that the hybrid vehicle concept using the CNG engine shows advantages both with respect to emissions as well as to pTCO. The pTCO is 10% lower, CO₂ emissions are 13% lower, and the NOx emissions are more than 50% lower than with the diesel combustion engine. These results are consistent across all usage profiles under investigation.

Keywords: bus transport, emissions, hybrid propulsion, pTCO, CNG

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Damtew Samson Zerihun

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This paper primarily describes the concept of a hierarchical safety control (HSC) in discrete manufacturing to up-hold productivity with human intervention and machine failures using a systematic approach, through increasing the system availability and using additional knowledge on machines so as to improve the human machine collaboration (HMC). It also highlights the implemented PLC safety algorithm, in applying this generic concept to a concrete pro-duction line using a lab demonstrator called FATIE (Factory Automation Test and Integration Environment). Furthermore, the paper describes a model and provide a systematic representation of human-machine collabora-tion in discrete manufacturing and to this end, the Hierarchical Safety Control concept is proposed. This offers a ge-neric description of human-machine collaboration based on Finite State Machines (FSM) that can be applied to vari-ous discrete manufacturing lines instead of using ad-hoc solutions for each line. With its reusability, flexibility, and extendibility, the Hierarchical Safety Control scheme allows upholding productivity while maintaining safety with reduced engineering effort compared to existing solutions. The approach to the solution begins with a successful partitioning of different zones around the Integrated Manufacturing System (IMS), which are defined by operator tasks and the risk assessment, used to describe the location of the human operator and thus to identify the related po-tential hazards and trigger the corresponding safety functions to mitigate it. This includes selective reduced speed zones and stop zones, and in addition with the hierarchical safety control scheme and advanced safety functions such as safe standstill and safe reduced speed are used to achieve the main goals in improving the safe Human Ma-chine Collaboration and increasing the productivity. In a sample scenarios, It is shown that an increase of productivity in the order of 2.5% is already possible with a hi-erarchical safety control, which consequently under a given assumptions, a total sum of 213 € could be saved for each intervention, compared to a protective stop reaction. Thereby the loss is reduced by 22.8%, if occasional haz-ard can be refined in a hierarchical way. Furthermore, production downtime due to temporary unavailability of safety devices can be avoided with safety failover that can save millions per year. Moreover, the paper highlights the proof of the development, implementation and application of the concept on the lab demonstrator (FATIE), where it is realized on the new safety PLCs, Drive Units, HMI as well as Safety devices in addition to the main components of the IMS.

Keywords: discrete automation, hierarchical safety controller, human machine collaboration, programmable logical controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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Earthquake is known as one of the most frequent natural hazards in Iran. Therefore, policy making to improve the strengthening of structures is one of the requirements of the approach to prevent and reduce the risk of the destructive effects of earthquakes. In order to choose the optimal policy in the face of earthquakes, this article tries to examine the cost of financial damages caused by earthquakes in the building sector and compare it with the costs of retrofitting. In this study, the results of adopting the scenario of "action after the earthquake" and the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before the earthquake" have been collected, calculated and finally analyzed by putting them together. Methodologically, data received from governorates and building retrofitting engineering companies have been used. The scope of the study is earthquakes occurred in the geographical area of Iran, and among them, eight earthquakes have been specifically studied: Miane, Ahar and Haris, Qator, Momor, Khorasan, Damghan and Shahroud, Gohran, Hormozgan and Ezgole. The main basis of the calculations is the data obtained from retrofitting companies regarding the cost per square meter of building retrofitting and the data of the governorate regarding the power of earthquake destruction, the realized costs for the reconstruction and construction of residential units. The estimated costs have been converted to the value of 2021 using the time value of money method to enable comparison and aggregation. The cost-benefit comparison of the two policies of action after the earthquake and retrofitting before the earthquake in the eight earthquakes investigated shows that the country has suffered five thousand billion Tomans of losses due to the lack of retrofitting of buildings against earthquakes. Based on the data of the Budget Law's of Iran, this figure was approximately twice the budget of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and five times the budget of the Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation in 2021. The results show that the policy of retrofitting structures before an earthquake is significantly more optimal than the competing scenario. The comparison of the two policy scenarios examined in this study shows that the policy of retrofitting buildings before an earthquake, on the one hand, prevents huge losses, and on the other hand, by increasing the number of earthquake-resistant houses, it reduces the amount of earthquake destruction. In addition to other positive effects of retrofitting, such as the reduction of mortality due to earthquake resistance of buildings and the reduction of other economic and social effects caused by earthquakes. These are things that can prove the cost-effectiveness of the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before earthquakes" in Iran.

Keywords: disaster economy, earthquake economy, cost-benefit analysis, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 29

Authors: Homyr L. Garcia, Jr., Anne Margaret A. Rendon, Carla Michaela B. Taguinod

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Nothing is constant in this world but change. This is the reality wherein a lot of people fail to recognize and maybe, it is because of the fact that some see things that are happening with little value or no value at all until it’s gone. For the past years, Egypt was known for its stable government. It was able to withstand a lot of problems and crisis which challenged their country in ways which can never be imagined. In the present time, it seems like in just a snap of a finger, the said stability vanished and it was immediately replaced by a crisis which resulted to a failure in some parts of their government. In addition, this problem continued to worsen and the current situation of Egypt is just a reflection or a result of it. On the other hand, as the researchers continued to study the reasons why the government of Egypt is unstable, they concluded that there might be a possibility that they will be able to produce ways in which their country could be helped or improved. The instability of the government of Egypt is the product of combining all the problems which affects the lives of the people. Some of the reasons that the researchers found are the following: 1) unending doubts of the people regarding the ruling capacity of elected presidents, 2) removal of President Mohamed Morsi in position, 3) economic crisis, 4) a lot of protests and revolution happened, 5) resignation of the long term President Hosni Mubarak and 6) the office of the President is most likely available only to the chosen successor. Also, according to previous researches, there are two plausible scenarios for the instability of Egypt: 1) a military intervention specifically the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces or SCAF, resulting from a contested succession and 2) an Islamist push for political power which highlights the claim that religion is a hindrance towards the development of their country and government. From the eight possible reasons, the researchers decided that they will be focusing on economic crisis since the instability is more clearly seen in the country’s economy which directly affects the people and the government itself. In addition, they made a hypothesis which states that stable economy is a prerequisite towards a stable government. If they will be able to show how this claim is true by using the Social Autopsy Research Design for the qualitative method and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for the quantitative method, the researchers might be able to produce a proposal on how Egypt can stabilize their government and avoid such problems. Also, the hypothesis will be based from the Rational Action Theory which is a theory for understanding and modeling social and economy as well as individual behavior.

Keywords: Pearson’s correlation coefficient, rational action theory, social autopsy research design, supreme council of the armed forces (SCAF)

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: M. Kharrat, G. Moreau, Z. Aboura

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The latest advances in the weaving industry, combined with increasingly sophisticated means of materials processing, have made it possible to produce complex 3D composite structures. Mainly used in aeronautics, composite materials with 3D architecture offer better mechanical properties than 2D reinforced composites. Nevertheless, these materials require a good understanding of their behavior. Because of the complexity of such materials, the damage mechanisms are multiple, and the scenario of their appearance and evolution depends on the nature of the exerted solicitations. The AE technique is a well-established tool for discriminating between the damage mechanisms. Suitable sensors are used during the mechanical test to monitor the structural health of the material. Relevant AE-features are then extracted from the recorded signals, followed by a data analysis using pattern recognition techniques. In order to better understand the damage scenarios of interlock composite materials, a multi-instrumentation was set-up in this work for tracking damage initiation and development, especially in the vicinity of the first significant damage, called macro-damage. The deployed instrumentation includes video-microscopy, Digital Image Correlation, Acoustic Emission (AE) and micro-tomography. In this study, a multi-variable AE data analysis approach was developed for the discrimination between the different signal classes representing the different emission sources during testing. An unsupervised classification technique was adopted to perform AE data clustering without a priori knowledge. The multi-instrumentation and the clustered data served to label the different signal families and to build a learning database. This latter is useful to construct a supervised classifier that can be used for automatic recognition of the AE signals. Several materials with different ingredients were tested under various solicitations in order to feed and enrich the learning database. The methodology presented in this work was useful to refine the damage threshold for the new generation materials. The damage mechanisms around this threshold were highlighted. The obtained signal classes were assigned to the different mechanisms. The isolation of a 'noise' class makes it possible to discriminate between the signals emitted by damages without resorting to spatial filtering or increasing the AE detection threshold. The approach was validated on different material configurations. For the same material and the same type of solicitation, the identified classes are reproducible and little disturbed. The supervised classifier constructed based on the learning database was able to predict the labels of the classified signals.

Keywords: acoustic emission, classifier, damage mechanisms, first damage threshold, interlock composite materials, pattern recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Alexandra Shipley

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Background: Undergraduate paediatric teaching must overcome two major challenges: 1) balancing patient safety with active student engagement and 2) exposing students to a comprehensive range of pathologies within a relatively short clinical placement. Whilst lectures and shadowing on paediatric wards constitute the mainstay of learning, Simulation and Virtual Reality (VR) are emerging as effective teaching tools, which - immune to the unpredictability and seasonal variation of hospital presentations - could expose students to the entire syllabus more reliably, efficiently, and independently. We aim to evaluate the potential utility of Simulation and VR in addressing gaps within the traditional paediatric curriculum from the perspective of medical students. Summary of Work: Exposure to and perceived utility of various learning opportunities within the Paediatric and Emergency Medicine courses were assessed through a questionnaire completed by 5th year medical students (n=23). Summary of Results: Students reported limited exposure to several common acute paediatric presentations, such as bronchiolitis (41%), croup (32%) or pneumonia (14%), and to clinical emergencies, including cardiac/respiratory arrests or trauma calls (27%). Across all conditions, average self-reported confidence in assessment and management to the level expected of an FY1 is greater amongst those who observed at least one case (e.g. 7.6/10 compared with 3.6/10 for croup). Students rated exposure through Simulation or VR to be of similar utility to witnessing a clinical scenario on the ward. In free text responses, students unanimously favoured being ‘challenged’ through ‘hands-on’ patient interaction over passive shadowing, where it is ‘easy to zone out.’ In recognition of the fact that such independence is only appropriate in certain clinical situations, many students reported wanting more Simulation and VR teaching. Importantly, students raised the necessity of ‘proper debriefs’ after these sessions to maximise educational value. Discussion and Conclusion: Our questionnaire elicited several student-perceived challenges in paediatric education, including incomplete exposure to common pathologies and limited opportunities for active involvement in patient care. Indeed, these experiences seem to be important predictors of confidence. Quantitative and qualitative feedback suggests that VR and Simulation satisfy students’ self-reported appetite for independent engagement with authentic clinical scenarios. Take-aways: Our findings endorse further development of VR and Simulation as high-yield adjuncts to paediatric education.

Keywords: paediatric emergency education, simulation, virtual reality, medical education

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Tingwei Shu, Dong Zhou, Chengjun Guo

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Semantic communication is an emerging form of communication that realize intelligent communication by extracting semantic information of data at the source and transmitting it, and recovering the data at the receiving end. It can effectively solve the problem of data transmission under the situation of large data volume, low SNR and restricted bandwidth. With the development of Deep Learning, semantic communication further matures and is gradually applied in the fields of the Internet of Things, Uumanned Air Vehicle cluster communication, remote sensing scenarios, etc. We propose an improved semantic communication system for the situation where the data volume is huge and the spectrum resources are limited during the transmission of remote sensing images. At the transmitting, we need to extract the semantic information of remote sensing images, but there are some problems. The traditional semantic communication system based on Convolutional Neural Network cannot take into account the global semantic information and local semantic information of the image, which results in less-than-ideal image recovery at the receiving end. Therefore, we adopt the improved vision-Transformer-based structure as the semantic encoder instead of the mainstream one using CNN to extract the image semantic features. In this paper, we first perform pre-processing operations on remote sensing images to improve the resolution of the images in order to obtain images with more semantic information. We use wavelet transform to decompose the image into high-frequency and low-frequency components, perform bilinear interpolation on the high-frequency components and bicubic interpolation on the low-frequency components, and finally perform wavelet inverse transform to obtain the preprocessed image. We adopt the improved Vision-Transformer structure as the semantic coder to extract and transmit the semantic information of remote sensing images. The Vision-Transformer structure can better train the huge data volume and extract better image semantic features, and adopt the multi-layer self-attention mechanism to better capture the correlation between semantic features and reduce redundant features. Secondly, to improve the coding efficiency, we reduce the quadratic complexity of the self-attentive mechanism itself to linear so as to improve the image data processing speed of the model. We conducted experimental simulations on the RSOD dataset and compared the designed system with a semantic communication system based on CNN and image coding methods such as BGP and JPEG to verify that the method can effectively alleviate the problem of excessive data volume and improve the performance of image data communication.

Keywords: semantic communication, transformer, wavelet transform, data processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Christian Ihwiwhu, Nnamdi Obioha, Udeme John, Edward Bobade, Oghenerunor Bekibele, Adedeji Awujoola, Ibi-Ada Itotoi

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Understanding the complexity in the distribution of hydrocarbon in a simple structure with flow baffles and connectivity issues is critical in targeting and developing the remaining pay in a mature asset. Subtle facies changes (heterogeneity) can have a drastic impact on reservoir fluids movement, and this can be crucial to identifying sweet spots in mature fields. This study aims to evaluate selected reservoirs in Ovhor Field, Niger Delta, Nigeria, with the objective of optimising production from the field by targeting undeveloped oil reserves, bypassed pay, and gaining an improved understanding of the selected reservoirs to increase the company’s reservoir limits. The task at the Ovhor field is complicated by poor stratigraphic seismic resolution over the field. 3-D geological (sedimentology and stratigraphy) interpretation, use of results from quantitative interpretation, and proper understanding of production data have been used in recognizing flow baffles and undeveloped compartments in the field. The full field 3-D model has been constructed in such a way as to capture heterogeneities and the various compartments in the field to aid the proper simulation of fluid flow in the field for future production prediction, proper history matching and design of good trajectories to adequately target undeveloped oil in the field. Reservoir property models (porosity, permeability, and net-to-gross) have been constructed by biasing log interpreted properties to a defined environment of deposition model whose interpretation captures the heterogeneities expected in the studied reservoirs. At least, two scenarios have been modelled for most of the studied reservoirs to capture the range of uncertainties we are dealing with. The total original oil in-place volume for the four reservoirs studied is 157 MMstb. The cumulative oil and gas production from the selected reservoirs are 67.64 MMstb and 9.76 Bscf respectively, with current production rate of about 7035 bopd and 4.38 MMscf/d (as at 31/08/2019). Dynamic simulation and production forecast on the 4 reservoirs gave an undeveloped reserve of about 3.82 MMstb from two (2) identified oil restoration activities. These activities include side-tracking and re-perforation of existing wells. This integrated approach led to the identification of bypassed oil in some areas of the selected reservoirs and an improved understanding of the studied reservoirs. New wells have/are being drilled now to test the results of our studies, and the results are very confirmatory and satisfying.

Keywords: facies, flow baffle, bypassed pay, heterogeneities, history matching, reservoir limit

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Golnush Masghati-Amoli, Paul Chin

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Over the past recent years, with the rapid increases in data availability and computing power, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been called on in a range of different industries for their strong predictive capability. However, the use of Machine Learning in commercial banking has been limited due to a special challenge imposed by numerous regulations that require lenders to be able to explain their analytic models, not only to regulators but often to consumers. In other words, although Machine Leaning techniques enable better prediction with a higher level of accuracy, in comparison with other industries, they are adopted less frequently in commercial banking especially for scoring purposes. This is due to the fact that Machine Learning techniques are often considered as a black box and fail to provide information on why a certain risk score is given to a customer. In order to bridge this gap between the explain-ability and performance of Machine Learning techniques, a Hybrid Model is developed at Dun and Bradstreet that is focused on blending Machine Learning algorithms with traditional approaches such as scorecards. The Hybrid Model maximizes efficiency of traditional scorecards by merging its practical benefits, such as explain-ability and the ability to input domain knowledge, with the deep insights of Machine Learning techniques which can uncover patterns scorecard approaches cannot. First, through development of Machine Learning models, engineered features and latent variables and feature interactions that demonstrate high information value in the prediction of customer risk are identified. Then, these features are employed to introduce observed non-linear relationships between the explanatory and dependent variables into traditional scorecards. Moreover, instead of directly computing the Weight of Evidence (WoE) from good and bad data points, the Hybrid Model tries to match the score distribution generated by a Machine Learning algorithm, which ends up providing an estimate of the WoE for each bin. This capability helps to build powerful scorecards with sparse cases that cannot be achieved with traditional approaches. The proposed Hybrid Model is tested on different portfolios where a significant gap is observed between the performance of traditional scorecards and Machine Learning models. The result of analysis shows that Hybrid Model can improve the performance of traditional scorecards by introducing non-linear relationships between explanatory and target variables from Machine Learning models into traditional scorecards. Also, it is observed that in some scenarios the Hybrid Model can be almost as predictive as the Machine Learning techniques while being as transparent as traditional scorecards. Therefore, it is concluded that, with the use of Hybrid Model, Machine Learning algorithms can be used in the commercial banking industry without being concerned with difficulties in explaining the models for regulatory purposes.

Keywords: machine learning algorithms, scorecard, commercial banking, consumer risk, feature engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: J.R.S.S. Kumara, M.A.R.M. Fernando, S.Venkatesh, D.K. Jayaratne

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Protection of heritage monuments against lightning has become extremely important as far as their historical values are concerned. When such structures are large and tall, the risk of lightning initiated from both cloud and ground can be high. This paper presents a lightning risk analysis of three giant stupas in Anuradhapura era (fourth century BC onwards) in Sri Lanka. The three stupas are Jethawaaramaya (269-296 AD), Abayagiriya (88-76 BC) and Ruwanweliseya (161-137 BC), the third, fifth and seventh largest ancient structures in the world. These stupas are solid brick structures consisting of a base, a near hemispherical dome and a conical spire on the top. The ancient stupas constructed with a dielectric crystal on the top and connected to the ground through a conducting material, was considered as the hypothesis for their original lightning protection technique. However, at present, all three stupas are protected with Franklin rod type air termination systems located on top of the spire. First, a risk analysis was carried out according to IEC 62305 by considering the isokeraunic level of the area and the height of the stupas. Then the standard protective angle method and rolling sphere method were used to locate the possible touching points on the surface of the stupas. The study was extended to estimate the critical current which could strike on the unprotected areas of the stupas. The equations proposed by (Uman 2001) and (Cooray2007) were used to find the striking distances. A modified version of rolling sphere method was also applied to see the effects of upward leaders. All these studies were carried out for two scenarios: with original (i.e. ancient) lightning protection system and with present (i.e. new) air termination system. The field distribution on the surface of the stupa in the presence of a downward leader was obtained using finite element based commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics for further investigations of lightning risks. The obtained results were analyzed and compared each other to evaluate the performance of ancient and new lightning protection methods and identify suitable methods to design lightning protection systems for stupas. According to IEC standards, all three stupas with new and ancient lightning protection system has Level IV protection as per protection angle method. However according to rolling sphere method applied with Uman’s equation protection level is III. The same method applied with Cooray’s equation always shows a high risk with respect to Uman’s equation. It was found that there is a risk of lightning strikes on the dome and square chamber of the stupa, and the corresponding critical current values were different with respect to the equations used in the rolling sphere method and modified rolling sphere method.

Keywords: Stupa, heritage, lightning protection, rolling sphere method, protection level

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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Technology adoption models are extensively used in the literature to explore drivers and inhibitors affecting the adoption of Computer Assisted Audit Techniques and Tools (CAATTs). Further studies from recent years suggested additional factors that may affect technology adoption by CPA firms. However, the adoption of CAATTs by financial auditors differs from the adoption of technologies in other industries. This is a result of the unique characteristics of the auditing process, which are expressed in the audit risk elements and the risk-based auditing approach, as encoded in the auditing standards. Since these audit risk factors are not part of the existing models that are used to explain technology adoption, these models do not fully correspond to the specific needs and requirements of the auditing domain. The overarching objective of this qualitative research is to fill the gap in the literature, which exists as a result of using generic technology adoption models. Followed by a pretest and based on semi-structured in-depth interviews with 16 Israeli CPA firms of different sizes, this study aims to reveal determinants related to audit risk factors that influence the adoption of CAATTs in audits and proposes a new modeling approach for the successful adoption of CAATTs. The findings emphasize several important aspects: (1) while large CPA firms developed their own inner guidelines to assess the audit risk components, other CPA firms do not follow a formal and validated methodology to evaluate these risks; (2) large firms incorporate a variety of CAATTs, including self-developed advanced tools. On the other hand, small and mid-sized CPA firms incorporate standard CAATTs and still need to catch up to better understand what CAATTs can offer and how they can contribute to the quality of the audit; (3) the top management of mid-sized and small CPA firms should be more proactive and updated about CAATTs capabilities and contributions to audits; and (4) All CPA firms consider professionalism as a major challenge that must be constantly managed to ensure an optimal CAATTs operation. The study extends the existing knowledge of CAATTs adoption by looking at it from a risk-based auditing approach. It suggests a new model for CAATTs adoption by incorporating influencing audit risk factors that auditors should examine when considering CAATTs adoption. Since the model can be used in various audited scenarios and supports strategic, risk-based decisions, it maximizes the great potential of CAATTs on the quality of the audits. The results and insights can be useful to CPA firms, internal auditors, CAATTs developers and regulators. Moreover, it may motivate audit standard-setters to issue updated guidelines regarding CAATTs adoption in audits.

Keywords: audit risk, CAATTs, financial auditing, information technology, technology adoption models

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Raveendranath Veeramani, Sunil Jonathan Holla, Parkash Chand, Sunil Chumber

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Gray’s Anatomy for Students has been a well-appreciated book among undergraduate students of anatomy in Asia. However, the current curricular requirements of anatomy require a more focused and organized approach. The editors of the first South Asia edition of Gray’s Anatomy for Students hereby highlight the modifications and importance of this edition. There is an emphasis on active learning by making the clinical relevance of anatomy explicit. Learning anatomy in context has been fostered by the association between anatomists and clinicians in keeping with the emerging integrated curriculum of the 21st century. The language has been simplified to aid students who have studied in the vernacular. The original illustrations have been retained, and few illustrations have been added. There are more figure numbers mentioned in the text to encourage students to refer to the illustrations while learning. The text has been made more student-friendly by adding generalizations, classifications and summaries. There are useful review materials at the beginning of the chapters which include digital resources for self-study. There are updates on imaging techniques to encourage students to appreciate the importance of essential knowledge of the relevant anatomy to interpret images, due emphasis has been laid on dissection. Additional importance has been given to the cranial nerves, by describing their relevant details with several additional illustrations and flowcharts. This new edition includes innovative features such as set inductions, outlines for subchapters and flowcharts to facilitate learning. Set inductions are mostly clinical scenarios to create interest in the need to study anatomy for healthcare professions. The outlines are a modern multimodal facilitating approach towards various topics to empower students to explore content and direct their learning and include learning objectives and material for review. The components of the outline encourage the student to be aware of the need to create solutions to clinical problems. The outlines help students direct their learning to recall facts, demonstrate and analyze relationships, use reason to explain concepts, appreciate the significance of structures and their relationships and apply anatomical knowledge. The 'structures to be identified in a dissection' are given as Level I, II and III which represent the 'must know, desirable to know and nice to know' content respectively. The flowcharts have been added to get an overview of the course of a structure, recapitulate important details about structures, and as an aid to recall. There has been a great effort to balance the need to have content that would enable students to understand concepts as well as get the basic material for the current condensed curriculum.

Keywords: Grays anatomy, South Asia, human anatomy, students anatomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Huayuan Lu, Chunfang Yang, Ma Zhu, Baojun Qi, Yaqiong Qiao, Jiangqian Xu

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Image geolocalization has great application prospects in fields such as autonomous driving and virtual/augmented reality. In practical application scenarios, the size of the image to be located is not fixed; it is impractical to train different networks for all possible sizes. When its size does not match the size of the input of the descriptor extraction model, existing image geolocalization methods usually directly scale or crop the image in some common ways. This will result in the loss of some information important to the geolocalization task, thus affecting the performance of the image geolocalization method. For example, excessive down-sampling can lead to blurred building contour, and inappropriate cropping can lead to the loss of key semantic elements, resulting in incorrect geolocation results. To address this problem, this paper designs a learnable image resizer and proposes an arbitrary-sized image geolocation method. (1) The designed learnable image resizer employs the self-attention mechanism to enhance the geometric features of the resized image. Firstly, it applies bilinear interpolation to the input image and its feature maps to obtain the initial resized image and the resized feature maps. Then, SKNet (selective kernel net) is used to approximate the best receptive field, thus keeping the geometric shapes as the original image. And SENet (squeeze and extraction net) is used to automatically select the feature maps with strong contour information, enhancing the geometric features. Finally, the enhanced geometric features are fused with the initial resized image, to obtain the final resized images. (2) The proposed image geolocalization method embeds the above image resizer as a fronting layer of the descriptor extraction network. It not only enables the network to be compatible with arbitrary-sized input images but also enhances the geometric features that are crucial to the image geolocalization task. Moreover, the triplet attention mechanism is added after the first convolutional layer of the backbone network to optimize the utilization of geometric elements extracted by the first convolutional layer. Finally, the local features extracted by the backbone network are aggregated to form image descriptors for image geolocalization. The proposed method was evaluated on several mainstream datasets, such as Pittsburgh30K, Tokyo24/7, and Places365. The results show that the proposed method has excellent size compatibility and compares favorably to recently mainstream geolocalization methods.

Keywords: image geolocalization, self-attention mechanism, image resizer, geometric feature

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Jan Schmitt, Sophie Fischer

Abstract:

After the Corona pandemic, climate change is a further, long-lasting challenge the society must deal with. An ongoing climate change need to be prevented. Nevertheless, the adoption tothe already changed climate conditionshas to be focused in many sectors. Recently, the decisive role of the economic sector with high value added can be seen in the Corona crisis. Hence, manufacturing industry as such a sector, needs to be prepared for climate change and adaption. Several examples from the manufacturing industry show the importance of a strategic effort in this field: The outsourcing of a major parts of the value chain to suppliers in other countries and optimizing procurement logistics in a time-, storage- and cost-efficient manner within a network of global value creation, can lead vulnerable impacts due to climate-related disruptions. E.g. the total damage costs after the 2011 flood disaster in Thailand, including costs for delivery failures, were estimated at 45 billion US dollars worldwide. German car manufacturers were also affected by supply bottlenecks andhave close its plant in Thailand for a short time. Another OEM must reduce the production output. In this contribution, a game-based learning approach is presented, which should enable manufacturing companies to derive their own strategies for climate adaption out of a mix of different actions. Based on data from a regional study of small, medium and large manufacturing companies in Mainfranken, a strongly industrialized region of northern Bavaria (Germany) the game-based learning approach is designed. Out of this, the actual state of efforts due to climate adaption is evaluated. First, the results are used to collect single actions for manufacturing companies and second, further actions can be identified. Then, a variety of climate adaption activities can be clustered according to the scope of activity of the company. The combination of different actions e.g. the renewal of the building envelope with regard to thermal insulation, its benefits and drawbacks leads to a specific strategy for climate adaption for each company. Within the game-based approach, the players take on different roles in a fictionalcompany and discuss the order and the characteristics of each action taken into their climate adaption strategy. Different indicators such as economic, ecologic and stakeholder satisfaction compare the success of the respective measures in a competitive format with other virtual companies deriving their own strategy. A "play through" climate change scenarios with targeted adaptation actions illustrate the impact of different actions and their combination onthefictional company.

Keywords: business strategy, climate change, climate adaption, game-based learning

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