Search results for: sales uncertainty

Authors: Goldie Lynn Diaz, Ma. Teresa Tricia G. Bautista, Elisabeth Engeljakob, Mary Glaze Rosal

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Introduction: Residents are expected to convey unfavorable news, discuss prognoses, and relieve suffering, and address do-not-resuscitate orders, yet some report a lack of competence in providing this type of care. Recognizing this need, Family Medicine residency programs are incorporating end-of-life care from symptom and pain control, counseling, and humanistic qualities as core proficiencies in training. Objective: This study determined the competency of Family Medicine Residents from various institutions in Metro Manila on rendering care for the dying. Materials and Methods: Trainees completed a Palliative Care Evaluation tool to assess their degree of confidence in patient and family interactions, patient management, and attitudes towards hospice care. Results: Remarkably, only a small fraction of participants were confident in performing independent management of terminal delirium and dyspnea. Fewer than 30% of residents can do the following without supervision: discuss medication effects and patient wishes after death, coping with pain, vomiting and constipation, and reacting to limited patient decision-making capacity. Half of the respondents had confidence in supporting the patient or family member when they become upset. Majority expressed confidence in many end-of-life care skills if supervision, coaching and consultation will be provided. Most trainees believed that pain medication should be given as needed to terminally ill patients. There was also uncertainty as to the most appropriate person to make end-of-life decisions. These attitudes may be influenced by personal beliefs rooted in cultural upbringing as well as by personal experiences with death in the family, which may also affect their participation and confidence in caring for the dying. Conclusion: Enhancing the quality and quantity of end-of-life care experiences during residency with sufficient supervision and role modeling may lead to knowledge and skill improvement to ensure quality of care. Fostering bedside learning opportunities during residency is an appropriate venue for teaching interventions in end-of-life care education.

Keywords: end of life care, geriatrics, palliative care, residency training skill

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Authors: Jakub Berčík, Elena Horská, Ľudmila Nagyová

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Nowadays, the point of sale remains one of the few channels of communication which is not oversaturated yet and has great potential for the future. The fact that purchasing decisions are significantly affected by emotions, while up to 75 % of them are implemented at the point of sale, only demonstrates its importance. The share of impulsive purchases is about 60-75 %, depending on the particular product category. Nevertheless, habits predetermine the content of the shopping cart above all and hence in this regard the role of in-store communication is to disrupt the routine and compel the customer to try something new. This is the reason why it is essential to know how to work with this relatively young branch of marketing communication as efficiently as possible. New global trend in this discipline is evaluating the effectiveness of particular tools in the in-store communication. To increase the efficiency it is necessary to become familiar with the factors affecting the customer both consciously and unconsciously, and that is a task for neuromarketing and sensory marketing. It is generally known that the customer remembers the negative experience much longer and more intensely than the positive ones, therefore it is essential for marketers to avoid this negative experience. The final effect of POP (Point of Purchase) or POS (Point of Sale) tools is conditional not only on their quality and design, but also on the location at the point of sale which contributes to the overall positive atmosphere in the store. Therefore, in-store advertising is increasingly in the center of attention and companies are willing to spend even a third of their marketing communication budget on it. The paper deals with a comprehensive, interdisciplinary research of the impact of traditional as well as innovative tools of in-store communication on the attention and emotional state (valence and arousal) of consumers on the food market. The research integrates measurements with eye camera (Eye tracker) and electroencephalograph (EEG) in real grocery stores as well as in laboratory conditions with the purpose of recognizing attention and emotional response among respondents under the influence of selected tools of in-store communication. The object of the research includes traditional (e.g. wobblers, stoppers, floor graphics) and innovative (e.g. displays, wobblers with LED elements, interactive floor graphics) tools of in-store communication in the fresh unpackaged food segment. By using a mobile 16-channel electroencephalograph (EEG equipment) from the company EPOC, a mobile eye camera (Eye tracker) from the company Tobii and a stationary eye camera (Eye tracker) from the company Gazepoint, we observe the attention and emotional state (valence and arousal) to reveal true consumer preferences using traditional and new unusual communication tools at the point of sale of the selected foodstuffs. The paper concludes with suggesting possibilities for rational, effective and energy-efficient combination of in-store communication tools, by which the retailer can accomplish not only captivating and attractive presentation of displayed goods, but ultimately also an increase in retail sales of the store.

Keywords: electroencephalograph (EEG), emotion, eye tracker, in-store communication

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Authors: Catia S. A. Sima, K. Bousson

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Congestion in the Terminal Maneuvering Areas (TMAs) of larger airports impacts all aspects of air traffic flow, not only at national level but may also induce arrival delays at international level. Hence, there is a need to monitor appropriately the air traffic flow in TMAs so that efficient decisions may be taken to manage their occupancy rates. It would be desirable to physically increase the existing airspace to accommodate all existing demands, but this question is entirely utopian and, given this possibility, several studies and analyses have been developed over the past decades to meet the challenges that have arisen due to the dizzying expansion of the aeronautical industry. The main objective of the present paper is to propose concepts to manage and reduce the degree of uncertainty in the air traffic operations, maximizing the interest of all involved, ensuring a balance between demand and supply, and developing and/or adapting resources that enable a rapid and effective adaptation of measures to the current context and the consequent changes perceived in the aeronautical industry. A central task is to emphasize the increase in air traffic flow management capacity to the present day, taking into account not only a wide range of methodologies but also equipment and/or tools already available in the aeronautical industry. The efficient use of these resources is crucial as the human capacity for work is limited and the actors involved in all processes related to air traffic flow management are increasingly overloaded and, as a result, operational safety could be compromised. The methodology used to answer and/or develop the issues listed above is based on the advantages promoted by the application of Markov Chain principles that enable the construction of a simplified model of a dynamic network that describes the air traffic flow behavior anticipating their changes and eventual measures that could better address the impact of increased demand. Through this model, the proposed concepts are shown to have potentials to optimize the air traffic flow management combined with the operation of the existing resources at each moment and the circumstances found in each TMA, using historical data from the air traffic operations and specificities found in the aeronautical industry, namely in the Portuguese context.

Keywords: air traffic flow, terminal maneuvering area, TMA, air traffic management, ATM, Markov chains

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Authors: Alena Radina

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On the global stage, national image is shaped by historical memory of wars and alliances, government ideology and particularly media stereotypes which represent countries in positive or negative ways. News magazine covers are a key site for national representation. The object of analysis in this paper is the portrayals of the US, Germany, China, and Russia in the front pages and cover stories of “Time”, “Der Spiegel”, “Beijing Review”, and “Expert”. Political comedy helps people learn about current affairs even if politics is not their area of interest, and thus satire indirectly sets the public agenda. Coupled with satirical messages, cover images and the linguistic messages embedded in the covers become persuasive visual and verbal factors, known to drive about 80% of magazine sales. Preliminary analysis identified satirical elements in magazine covers, which are known to influence and frame understandings and attract younger audiences. Multimodal and transnational comparative framing analyses lay the groundwork to investigate why journalists, editors and designers deploy certain frames rather than others. This research investigates to what degree frames used in covers correlate with frames within the cover stories and what these framings can tell us about media professionals’ representations of their own and other nations. The study sample includes 32 covers consisting of two covers representing each of the four chosen countries from the four magazines. The sampling framework considers two time periods to compare countries’ representation with two different presidents, and between men and women when present. The countries selected for analysis represent each category of the international news flows model: the core nations are the US and Germany; China is a semi-peripheral country; and Russia is peripheral. Examining textual and visual design elements on the covers and images in the cover stories reveals not only what editors believe visually attracts the reader’s attention to the magazine but also how the magazines frame and construct national images and national leaders. The cover is the most powerful editorial and design page in a magazine because images incorporate less intrusive framing tools. Thus, covers require less cognitive effort of audiences who may therefore be more likely to accept the visual frame without question. Analysis of design and linguistic elements in magazine covers helps to understand how media outlets shape their audience’s perceptions and how magazines frame global issues. While previous multimodal research of covers has focused mostly on lifestyle magazines or newspapers, this paper examines the power of current affairs magazines’ covers to shape audience perception of national image.

Keywords: framing analysis, magazine covers, multimodality, national image, satire

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Authors: Katarina Rogulj, Ivana Racetin, Jelena Kilic

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In this study, the fuzzy logic approach (FLA) was developed for construction project management (CPM) under uncertainty and duality. The focus was on decision making in selecting the type of the glass facade for a residential-commercial building in the main design. The adoption of fuzzy sets was capable of reflecting construction managers’ reliability level over subjective judgments, and thus the robustness of the system can be achieved. An α-cuts method was utilized for discretizing the fuzzy sets in FLA. This method can communicate all uncertain information in the optimization process, taking into account the values of this information. Furthermore, FLA provides in-depth analyses of diverse policy scenarios that are related to various levels of economic aspects when it comes to the construction projects' valid decision making. The developed approach is applied to CPM to demonstrate its applicability. Analyzing the materials of glass facades, variants were defined. The development of the FLA for the CPM included relevant construction projec'ts stakeholders that were involved in the criteria definition to evaluate each variant. Using fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method (DEMATEL) comparison of the glass facade was conducted. This way, a rank, according to the priorities for inclusion into the main design, of variants is obtained. The concept was tested on a residential-commercial building in the city of Rijeka, Croatia. The newly developed methodology was then compared with the existing one. The aim of the research was to define an approach that will improve current judgments and decisions when it comes to the material selection of buildings facade as one of the most important architectural and engineering tasks in the main design. The advantage of the new methodology compared to the old one is that it includes the subjective side of the managers’ decisions, as an inevitable factor in each decision making. The proposed approach can help construction projects managers to identify the desired type of glass facade according to their preference and practical conditions, as well as facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between economic efficiency and architectural design.

Keywords: construction projects management, DEMATEL, fuzzy logic approach, glass façade selection

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Authors: Gaurangi Saxena, Ravindra Saxena

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Lately, cloud computing is used to enhance the ability to attain corporate goals more effectively and efficiently at lower cost. This new computing paradigm “The Cloud Computing” has emerged as a powerful tool for optimum utilization of resources and gaining competitiveness through cost reduction and achieving business goals with greater flexibility. Realizing the importance of this new technique, most of the well known companies in computer industry like Microsoft, IBM, Google and Apple are spending millions of dollars in researching cloud computing and investigating the possibility of producing interface hardware for cloud computing systems. It is believed that by using the right middleware, a cloud computing system can execute all the programs a normal computer could run. Potentially, everything from most simple generic word processing software to highly specialized and customized programs designed for specific company could work successfully on a cloud computing system. A Cloud is a pool of virtualized computer resources. Clouds are not limited to grid environments, but also support “interactive user-facing applications” such as web applications and three-tier architectures. Cloud Computing is not a fundamentally new paradigm. It draws on existing technologies and approaches, such as utility Computing, Software-as-a-service, distributed computing, and centralized data centers. Some companies rent physical space to store servers and databases because they don’t have it available on site. Cloud computing gives these companies the option of storing data on someone else’s hardware, removing the need for physical space on the front end. Prominent service providers like Amazon, Google, SUN, IBM, Oracle, Salesforce etc. are extending computing infrastructures and platforms as a core for providing top-level services for computation, storage, database and applications. Application services could be email, office applications, finance, video, audio and data processing. By using cloud computing system a company can improve its customer relationship management. A CRM cloud computing system may be highly useful in delivering a sales team a blend of unique functionalities to improve agent/customer interactions. This paper attempts to first define the cloud computing as a tool for running business activities more effectively and efficiently at a lower cost; and then it distinguishes cloud computing with grid computing. Based on exhaustive literature review, authors discuss application of cloud computing in different disciplines of management especially in the field of marketing with special reference to use of cloud computing in CRM. Study concludes that CRM cloud computing platform helps a company track any data, such as orders, discounts, references, competitors and many more. By using CRM cloud computing, companies can improve its customer interactions and by serving them more efficiently that too at a lower cost can help gaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: cloud computing, competitive advantage, customer relationship management, grid computing

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Authors: David Holton, Michelle Dickinson, Giovanni Carta

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The principle of geological disposal is to isolate higher-activity radioactive wastes deep inside a suitable rock formation to ensure that no harmful quantities of radioactivity reach the surface environment. To achieve this, wastes will be placed in an engineered underground containment facility – the geological disposal facility (GDF) – which will be designed so that natural and man-made barriers work together to minimise the escape of radioactivity. Internationally, various multi-barrier concepts have been developed for the disposal of higher-activity radioactive wastes. High-heat-generating wastes (HLW, spent fuel and Pu) provide a number of different technical challenges to those associated with the disposal of low-heat-generating waste. Thermal management of the disposal system must be taken into consideration in GDF design; temperature constraints might apply to the wasteform, container, buffer and host rock. Of these, the temperature limit placed on the buffer component of the engineered barrier system (EBS) can be the most constraining factor. The heat must therefore be managed such that the properties of the buffer are not compromised to the extent that it cannot deliver the required level of safety. The maximum temperature of a buffer surrounding a container at the centre of a fixed array of heat-generating sources, arises due to heat diffusing from neighbouring heat-generating wastes, incrementally contributing to the temperature of the EBS. A range of strategies can be employed for managing heat in a GDF, including the spatial arrangements or patterns of those containers; different geometrical configurations can influence the overall thermal density in a disposal facility (or area within a facility) and therefore the maximum buffer temperature. A semi-analytical thermal dimensioning tool and methodology have been applied at a generic stage to explore a range of strategies to manage the disposal of high-heat-generating waste. A number of examples, including different geometrical layouts and chequer-boarding, have been illustrated to demonstrate how these tools can be used to consider safety margins and inform strategic disposal options when faced with uncertainty, at a generic stage of the development of a GDF.

Keywords: buffer, geological disposal facility, high-heat-generating waste, spent fuel

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Authors: Saul Estrin, Ute Stephan, Suncica Vujic

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Background and research question: Gender differences in pay are present at all organisational levels, including at the very top. One possible way for women to circumvent organizational norms and discrimination is to engage in entrepreneurship because, as CEOs of their own organizations, entrepreneurs largely determine their own pay. While commercial entrepreneurship plays an important role in job creation and economic growth, social entrepreneurship has come to prominence because of its promise of addressing societal challenges such as poverty, social exclusion, or environmental degradation through market-based rather than state-sponsored activities. This opens the research question whether social entrepreneurship might be a form of entrepreneurship in which the pay of men and women is the same, or at least more similar; that is to say there is little or no gender pay gap. If the gender gap in pay persists also at the top of social enterprises, what are the factors, which might explain these differences? Methodology: The Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition (OBD) is the standard approach of decomposing the gender pay gap based on the linear regression model. The OBD divides the gender pay gap into the ‘explained’ part due to differences in labour market characteristics (education, work experience, tenure, etc.), and the ‘unexplained’ part due to differences in the returns to those characteristics. The latter part is often interpreted as ‘discrimination’. There are two issues with this approach. (i) In many countries there is a notable convergence in labour market characteristics across genders; hence the OBD method is no longer revealing, since the largest portion of the gap remains ‘unexplained’. (ii) Adding covariates to a base model sequentially either to test a particular coefficient’s ‘robustness’ or to account for the ‘effects’ on this coefficient of adding covariates might be problematic, due to sequence-sensitivity when added covariates are correlated. Gelbach’s decomposition (GD) addresses latter by using the omitted variables bias formula, which constructs a conditional decomposition thus accounting for sequence-sensitivity when added covariates are correlated. We use GD to decompose the differences in gaps of pay (annual and hourly salary), size of the organisation (revenues), effort (weekly hours of work), and sources of finances (fees and sales, grants and donations, microfinance and loans, and investors’ capital) between men and women leading social enterprises. Database: Our empirical work is made possible by our collection of a unique dataset using respondent driven sampling (RDS) methods to address the problem that there is as yet no information on the underlying population of social entrepreneurs. The countries that we focus on are the United Kingdom, Spain, Romania and Hungary. Findings and recommendations: We confirm the existence of a gender pay gap between men and women leading social enterprises. This gap can be explained by differences in the accumulation of human capital, psychological and social factors, as well as cross-country differences. The results of this study contribute to a more rounded perspective, highlighting that although social entrepreneurship may be a highly satisfying occupation, it also perpetuates gender pay inequalities.

Keywords: Gelbach’s decomposition, gender gap, returns to social entrepreneurship, values and preferences

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Authors: Bar Shapira-Youngster, Sima Amram-Vaknin, Yuliya Lipshits-Braziler

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The study examined how 811 Israelis experienced and coped with the COVID-19 lockdown. Stress, uncertainty, and loss of control were reported as common emotional experiences. Two main difficulties were reported: Loneliness and health and emotional concerns. Frequent explanations for the virus's emergence were: scientific or faith reasoning. The most prevalent coping strategies were distraction activities and acceptance. Reducing the use of maladaptive coping strategies has important implications for mental health outcomes. Objectives: COVID-19 has been recognized as a collective, continuous traumatic stressor. The present study examined how individuals experienced, perceived, and coped with this traumatic event during the lockdown in Israel in April 2020. Method: 811 Israelis (71.3% were women; mean age 43.7, SD=13.3)completed an online semi-structured questionnaire consisting two sections: In the first section, participants were asked to report background information. In the second section, they were asked to answer 8 open-ended questions about their experience, perception, and coping with the covid-19 lockdown. Participation was voluntary, and anonymity was assured, they were not offered compensation of any kind. The data were subjected to qualitative content analysis that seeks to classify the participants` answers into an effective number of categories that represent similar meanings. Our content analysis of participants’ answers extended far beyond simple word counts; our objective was to try to identify recurrent categories that characterized participants’ responses to each question. We sought to ensure that the categories regarding the different questions are as mutually exclusive and exhaustive as possible. To ensure robust analysis, the data were initially analyzed by the first author, and a second opinion was then sought from research colleagues. Contribution: The present research expands our knowledge of individuals' experiences, perceptions, and coping mechanisms with continuous traumatic events. Reducing the use of maladaptive coping strategies has important implications for mental health outcomes.

Keywords: Covid-19, emotional distress, coping, continuous traumatic event

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Authors: Alexandra Telitsyna, Galina Semya, Elvira Garifulina

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Introduction: Starting from 2012 Russia conducts deinstitutionalization policy and now the main indicator of success is the number of children living in institutions. Active family placement process has resulted in residents of the institution now mainly consists of adolescents with behavioral and emotional problems, children with disabilities and groups of siblings. Purpose of science research: The purpose of science research is to identify factors for child’s wellbeing while temporary stay in an orphanage and the subjective assessment of children's level of well-being (psychological well-being). Methods: The data used for this project was collected by the questionnaire of 72 indicators, a tool for monitoring the behavior of children and caregivers, an additional questionnaire for children; well-being assessment questionnaire containing 10 scales for three age groups from preschool to older adolescents. In 2016-2018, the research was conducted in 1873 institution in 85 regions of Russia. In each region a team of academics, specialists from Non-profits, independent experts was created. Training was conducted for team members through a series of webinars prior to undertaking the assessment. The results: To ensure the well-being of the children, the following conditions are necessary: 1- Life of children in institution is organised according to the principles of family care (including the creation of conditions for attachment to be formed); 2- Contribution to find family-based placement for children (including reintegration into the primary family); 3- Work with parents of children, who are placed in an organization at the request of parents; 4- Children attend schools according to their needs; 5- Training of staff and volunteers; 6- Special environment and services for children with special needs and children with disabilities; 7- Cooperation with NGOs; 8 - Openness and accessibility of the organization. Conclusion: A study of the psychological well-being of children showed that the most emotionally stressful for children were questions about the presence and frequency of contact with relatives, and the level of well-being is higher in the presence of a trusted adult and respect for rights. The greatest contribution to the trouble is made by the time the child is in the orphanage, the lack of contact with parents and relatives, the uncertainty of the future.

Keywords: identifying factors, orphans, Russia, wellbeing

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Authors: Jiaxin Chen

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Translations have been labeled as more simplified than non-translations, featuring less diversified and more frequent lexical items and simpler syntactic structures. Such simplified linguistic features have been identified in other bilingualism-influenced language varieties, including non-native and learner language use. Therefore, it has been proposed that translation could be studied within a broader framework of constrained language, and simplification is one of the universal features shared by constrained language varieties due to similar cognitive-physiological and social-interactive constraints. Yet contradicting findings have also been presented. To address this issue, this study intends to adopt Shannon’s entropy-based measures to quantify complexity in language use. Entropy measures the level of uncertainty or unpredictability in message content, and it has been adapted in linguistic studies to quantify linguistic variance, including morphological diversity and lexical richness. In this study, the complexity of lexical and syntactic choices will be captured by word-form entropy and pos-form entropy, and a comparison will be made between constrained and non-constrained language use to test the simplification hypothesis. The entropy-based method is employed because it captures both the frequency of linguistic choices and their evenness of distribution, which are unavailable when using traditional indices. Another advantage of the entropy-based measure is that it is reasonably stable across languages and thus allows for a reliable comparison among studies on different language pairs. In terms of the data for the present study, one established (CLOB) and two self-compiled corpora will be used to represent native written English and two constrained varieties (L2 written English and translated English), respectively. Each corpus consists of around 200,000 tokens. Genre (press) and text length (around 2,000 words per text) are comparable across corpora. More specifically, word-form entropy and pos-form entropy will be calculated as indicators of lexical and syntactical complexity, and ANOVA tests will be conducted to explore if there is any corpora effect. It is hypothesized that both L2 written English and translated English have lower entropy compared to non-constrained written English. The similarities and divergences between the two constrained varieties may provide indications of the constraints shared by and peculiar to each variety.

Keywords: constrained language use, entropy-based measures, lexical simplification, syntactical simplification

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Authors: Mahalakshmi Vivekanandan S.

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate-related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate-related changes can often happen and lead to risk and a lot of uncertainty, but needs to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate-related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and other risk types. And the models required to compute this has to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out the suggestion that the climate-related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, the author presents a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves into the topic of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases that in turn cause global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting the Credit and market risk of an institution by understanding the transmission channels and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: the automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II Capital calculations and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar ii risk, scenario modeling

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Authors: Piotr Podlipniak

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Social consolidation has often been indicated as an adaptive function of music which led to the evolution of music faculty. According to many scholars this function is possible thanks to musical rhythm that enables sensorimotor synchronization to a musical beat. The ability to synchronize to music allows performing music collectively which enhances social cohesion. However, the collective performance of music consists also in spectral synchronization that depends on musical pitch structure. Similarly to rhythmic synchronization, spectral synchronization is a result of ‘brain states alignment’ between people who collectively listen to or perform music. In order to successfully synchronize pitches performers have to adequately expect the pitch structure. The most common form of music which predominates among all human societies is tonal music. In fact tonality understood in the broadest sense as such an organization of musical pitches in which some pitch is more important than others is the only kind of musical pitch structure that has been observed in all currently known musical cultures. The perception of such a musical pitch structure elicits specific emotional reactions which are often described as tensions and relaxations. These facts provoke some important questions. What is the evolutionary reason that people use pitch structure as a form of vocal communication? Why different pitch structures elicit different emotional states independent of extra-musical context? It is proposed in the current presentation that in the course of evolution pitch structure became a human specific tool of communication the function of which is to induce emotional states such as uncertainty and cohesion. By the means of eliciting these emotions during collective music performance people are able to unconsciously give cues concerning social acceptance. This is probably one of the reasons why in all cultures people collectively perform tonal music. It is also suggested that tonal pitch structure had been invented socially before it became an evolutionary innovation of Homo sapiens. It means that a predisposition to tonally organize pitches evolved by the means of ‘Baldwin effect’ – a process in which natural selection transforms the learned response of an organism into the instinctive response. The hypothetical evolutionary scenario of the emergence of tonal pitch structure will be proposed. In this scenario social forces such as a need for closer cooperation play the crucial role.

Keywords: emotion, evolution, tonality, social consolidation

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Authors: S. Mani, M. Kafil, E. Asadi

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Condition Monitoring (CM) of electrical equipment has gained remarkable importance during the recent years; due to huge production losses, substantial imposed costs and increases in vulnerability, risk and uncertainty levels. Power cables feed numerous electrical equipment such as transformers, motors, and electric furnaces; thus their condition assessment is of a very great importance. This paper investigates electrical, structural and environmental failure sources, all of which influence cables' performances and limit their uptimes; and provides a comprehensive framework entailing practical CM guidelines for maintenance of cables in industries. The multilevel CM framework presented in this study covers performance indicative features of power cables; with a focus on both online and offline diagnosis and test scenarios, and covers short-term and long-term threats to the operation and longevity of power cables. The study, after concisely overviewing the concept of CM, thoroughly investigates five major areas of power quality, Insulation Quality features of partial discharges, tan delta and voltage withstand capabilities, together with sheath faults, shield currents and environmental features of temperature and humidity; and elaborates interconnections and mutual impacts between those areas; using mathematical formulation and practical guidelines. Detection, location, and severity identification methods for every threat or fault source are also elaborated. Finally, the comprehensive, practical guidelines presented in the study are presented for the specific case of Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) feeder MV power cables in Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), the largest steel company in MENA region, in Iran. Specific technical and industrial characteristics and limitations of a harsh industrial environment like MSC EAF feeder cable tunnels are imposed on the presented framework; making the suggested package more practical and tangible.

Keywords: condition monitoring, diagnostics, insulation, maintenance, partial discharge, power cables, power quality

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Authors: Aileen Editha

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The legal recognition of property rights over human genes is a divisive topic to which there is no resolution. As a frequently discussed topic, scholars and practitioners often highlight the inadequacies of a proprietary regime. However, little has been said in regard to the nature of human genetic materials (HGMs). This paper proposes approaching the issue of property over HGMs from an alternative perspective that looks at the personal and social value and valuation of HGMs. This paper will highlight how the unique and unresolved status of HGMs is incompatible with the main tenets of property and, consequently, contributes to legal ambiguity and uncertainty in the regulation of property rights over human genes. HGMs are perceived as part of nature and a free-for-all while also being within an individual’s private sphere. Additionally, it is also considered to occupy a unique “not-private-nor-public” status. This limbo-like position clashes with property’s fundamental characteristic that relies heavily on a clear public/private dichotomy. Moreover, as property is intrinsically linked to the legal recognition of one’s personhood, this irresolution benefits some while disadvantages others. In particular, it demands the publicization of once-private genes for the “common good” but subsequently encourages privatization (through labor) of these now-public genes. This results in the gain of some (already privileged) individuals while enabling the disenfranchisement of members of minority groups, such as Indigenous communities. This paper will discuss real and intellectual property rights over human genes, such as the right to income or patent rights, in Canada and the US. This paper advocates for a sui generis approach to governing rights and interests over human genes that would not rely on having a strict public/private dichotomy. Not only would this improve legal certainty and clarity, but it would also alleviate—or, at the very least, minimize—the role that the current law plays in further entrenching existing systemic inequalities. Despite the specificity of this topic, this paper argues that there are broader lessons to be learned. This issue is an insightful case study on the interconnection of various principles in law, society, and property, and what must be done when discordance between one or more of those principles has detrimental societal outcomes. Ultimately, it must be remembered that property is an adaptable and malleable instrument that can be developed to ensure it contributes to equity and flourishing.

Keywords: property rights, human genetic materials, critical legal scholarship, systemic inequalities

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Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan

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Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.

Keywords: border of the Universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps

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Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

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Authors: Moujib Bahri, Rahim Kallel, Ouafa Sakka

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Corruption is a phenomenon that increases uncertainty and risk of SMEs as it undermines the quality of the business environment and the easy access to public services. Our research builds on existing research on corruption's effects on economic growth at the firm level. Several papers have analyzed the effect of firms’ payments of bribes on their performance; however, only limited research has investigated the link between corruption, innovation, and exports. Drawing on principal-agent theory, we explore how corruption weakens the institutional context and makes the business environment unsound and not conducive to innovation and exports. This study employs data from The Enterprise Surveys conducted in Tunisia between March 2013 and July 2014 by the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB). The main objective of this survey was to gain a better understanding of Tunisian firms’ perception of the environment in which they operate. Since 2011, the country's political situation has become fragile and unstable, and public services are perceived as inefficient and corrupt. We test our hypotheses on a sample of 537 Tunisian manufacturing SMEs using structural equation modeling and path analysis. We find that political instability leads to higher level of corruption, and that excessive business licensing regulations create a fertile ground for bribery. Our findings do not support the greasing hypothesis suggesting that corruption can reduce the negative effect of bureaucratic delays and the hard access of companies to public services related to innovation and exports. Instead, our results support the sanding hypothesis according to which corruption hinders innovation activities and exports. Furthermore, corruption is found to, negatively and significantly, impact firms’ ownership of quality certificates. Our results suggest that, in an environment with a high level of corruption, governments and policymakers interested in assisting SMEs with their innovation and export activities should have a better control on corruption to allow them developing those activities without being forced to bribe government officers.

Keywords: corruption, innovation, exports, SMEs

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Authors: Matthew F. Gibson, Narasimha D. Rao, Raphael B. Slade, Joana Portugal Pereira, Joeri Rogelj

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Globally, India’s population is among the most severely impacted by nutrient deficiency, yet millions of tonnes of food are lost before reaching consumers. Across food groups, grains represent the largest share of daily calories and overall losses by mass in India. If current losses remain unresolved and follow projected population rates, we estimate, by 2030, losses from grains for human consumption could increase by 1.3-1.8 million tonnes (Mt) per year against current levels of ~10 Mt per year. This study quantifies energy input to minimise storage losses across India, responsible for a quarter of grain supply chain losses. In doing so, we identify and explore a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) triplet between SDG₂, SDG₇, and SDG₁₂ and provide insight for development of joined up agriculture and health policy in the country. Analyzing rice, wheat, maize, bajra, and sorghum, we quantify one route to reduce losses in supply chains, by modelling the energy input to maintain favorable climatic conditions in modern silo storage. We quantify key nutrients (calories, protein, zinc, iron, vitamin A) contained within these losses and calculate roughly how much deficiency in these dietary components could be reduced if grain losses were eliminated. Our modelling indicates, with appropriate uncertainty, maize has the highest energy input intensity for storage, at 110 kWh per tonne of grain (kWh/t), and wheat the lowest (72 kWh/t). This energy trade-off represents 8%-16% of the energy input required in grain production. We estimate if grain losses across the supply chain were saved and targeted to India’s nutritionally deficient population, average protein deficiency could reduce by 46%, calorie by 27%, zinc by 26%, and iron by 11%. This study offers insight for development of Indian agriculture, food, and health policy by first quantifying and then presenting benefits and trade-offs of tackling food grain losses.

Keywords: energy, food loss, grain storage, hunger, India, sustainable development goal, SDG

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Authors: Andrey Makarov

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This article will focus on the development of antitrust policy in transition economies in the context of preventing explicit and tacit collusion. Experience of BRICS, CIS (Ukraine, Kazakhstan) and CEE countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia) in the creation of antitrust institutions was analyzed, including both legislation and enforcement practice. Most of these countries in the early 90th were forced to develop completely new legislation in the field of protection of competition and it is important to compare different ways of building antitrust institutions and policy results. The article proposes a special approach to evaluation of preventing collusion mechanisms. This approach takes into account such enforcement problems as: classification problems (tacit vs explicit collusion, vertical vs horizontal agreements), flexibility of prohibitions (the balance between “per se” vs “rule of reason” approaches de jure and in practice), design of sanctions, private enforcement challenge, leniency program mechanisms, the role of antitrust authorities etc. The analysis is conducted using both official data, published by competition authorities, and expert assessments. The paper will show how the integration process within the EU predetermined some aspects of the development of antitrust policy in CEE countries, including the trend of the use of "rule of reason" approach. Simultaneously was analyzed the experience of CEE countries in special mechanisms of government intervention. CIS countries in the development of antitrust policy followed more or less original ways, without such a great impact from the European Union, more attention will be given to Russian experience in this field, including the analysis of judicial decisions in antitrust cases. Main problems and challenges for transition economies in this field will be shown, including: Legal uncertainty problem; Problem of rigidity of prohibitions; Enforcement priorities of the regulator; Interaction of administrative and criminal law, limited effectiveness of criminal sanctions in the antitrust field; The effectiveness of leniency program design; Private enforcement challenge.

Keywords: collusion, antitrust policy, leniency program, transition economies, Russia, CEE

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: automatic calibration framework, approximate bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform

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Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

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Authors: H. Jung, N. Kim, B. Kang, J. Choe

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History matching is a crucial procedure for predicting reservoir performances and making future decisions. However, it is difficult due to uncertainties of initial reservoir models. Therefore, it is important to have reliable initial models for successful history matching of highly heterogeneous reservoirs such as channel reservoirs. In this paper, we proposed a novel scheme for regenerating geological models using support vector machine (SVM) and principal component analysis (PCA). First, we perform PCA for figuring out main geological characteristics of models. Through the procedure, permeability values of each model are transformed to new parameters by principal components, which have eigenvalues of large magnitude. Secondly, the parameters are projected into two-dimensional plane by multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) based on Euclidean distances. Finally, we train an SVM classifier using 20% models which show the most similar or dissimilar well oil production rates (WOPR) with the true values (10% for each). Then, the other 80% models are classified by trained SVM. We select models on side of low WOPR errors. One hundred channel reservoir models are initially generated by single normal equation simulation. By repeating the classification process, we can select models which have similar geological trend with the true reservoir model. The average field of the selected models is utilized as a probability map for regeneration. Newly generated models can preserve correct channel features and exclude wrong geological properties maintaining suitable uncertainty ranges. History matching with the initial models cannot provide trustworthy results. It fails to find out correct geological features of the true model. However, history matching with the regenerated ensemble offers reliable characterization results by figuring out proper channel trend. Furthermore, it gives dependable prediction of future performances with reduced uncertainties. We propose a novel classification scheme which integrates PCA, MDS, and SVM for regenerating reservoir models. The scheme can easily sort out reliable models which have similar channel trend with the reference in lowered dimension space.

Keywords: history matching, principal component analysis, reservoir modelling, support vector machine

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Authors: Alexis Winfield, Carly Sugar, Barbara Fenesi

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The COVID-19 pandemic uprooted regular routines forcing many children to learn from home, requiring many adults to work from home, and cutting families off from support outside the home. Public health restrictions associated with the pandemic caused widespread psychological distress, including depression and anxiety, increased fear, panic, and stress. These trends are particularly concerning for families raising neuroatypical children, such as those with Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), as these children are already more likely than their typically developing peers to experience comorbid mental health issues and to experience greater distress when required to stay indoors. Families with children who have ADHD are also at greater risk for experiencing heightened familial stress due to the challenges associated with managing ADHD behavioural symptoms, greater parental discord and divorce, and greater financial difficulties compared to other families. The current study engaged families comprised of at least one child diagnosed with ADHD to elucidate 1) the unique ways that the COVID-19 pandemic affected their mental health and 2) the specific barriers these families faced to maintaining optimal mental wellbeing. A total of 33 participants (15 parent-child dyads) engaged in virtual interviews. Content analysis revealed that the most frequently identified mental health effects for families were increased child anxiety and disconnectedness, as well as deteriorating parental mental health. The most frequently identified barriers to maintaining optimal mental well-being were lack of routine, lack of social interaction and social support, and uncertainty and fear. Findings underscore areas of need during times of large-scale social isolation, bring voice to the families of children with ADHD, and contribute to our understanding of the pandemic’s impact on the wellbeing of vulnerable families. This work contributes to a growing body of research aimed at creating safeguards to support mental wellbeing for vulnerable families during times of crisis.

Keywords: attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, COVID-19, mental health, vulnerable families

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Authors: Maria Evnevich

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In modern conditions, in most markets, price competition is becoming less effective. On the one hand, there is a gradual decrease in the level of marginality in main traditional sectors of the economy, so further price reduction becomes too ‘expensive’ for the company. On the other hand, the effect of price reduction is leveled, and the reason for this phenomenon is likely to be informational. As a result, it turns out that even if the company reduces prices, making its products more accessible to the buyer, there is a high probability that this will not lead to increase in sales unless additional large-scale advertising and information campaigns are conducted. Similarly, a large-scale information and advertising campaign have a much greater effect itself than price reductions. At the same time, the cost of mass informing is growing every year, especially when using the main information channels. The article presents generalization, systematization and development of theoretical approaches and best practices in the field of customer focus approach to business management and in the field of relationship marketing in the modern digital economy. The research methodology is based on the synthesis and content-analysis of sociological and marketing research and on the study of the systems of working with consumer appeals and loyalty programs in the 50 largest client-oriented companies in Russia. Also, the analysis of internal documentation on customers’ purchases in one of the largest retail companies in Russia allowed to identify if buyers prefer to buy goods for complex purchases in one retail store with the best price image for them. The cost of attracting a new client is now quite high and continues to grow, so it becomes more important to keep him and increase the involvement through marketing tools. A huge role is played by modern digital technologies used both in advertising (e-mailing, SEO, contextual advertising, banner advertising, SMM, etc.) and in service. To implement the above-described client-oriented omnichannel service, it is necessary to identify the client and work with personal data provided when filling in the loyalty program application form. The analysis of loyalty programs of 50 companies identified the following types of cards: discount cards, bonus cards, mixed cards, coalition loyalty cards, bank loyalty programs, aviation loyalty programs, hybrid loyalty cards, situational loyalty cards. The use of loyalty cards allows not only to stimulate the customer to purchase ‘untargeted’, but also to provide individualized offers, as well as to produce more targeted information. The development of digital technologies and modern means of communication has significantly changed not only the sphere of marketing and promotion, but also the economic landscape as a whole. Factors of competitiveness are the digital opportunities of companies in the field of customer orientation: personalization of service, customization of advertising offers, optimization of marketing activity and improvement of logistics.

Keywords: customer focus, digital economy, loyalty program, relationship marketing

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Authors: Stehr Melanie

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The availability of apposite information is essential for the decision-making process of organizational buyers. Due to the constraints of the Covid-19 crisis, information channels that emphasize face-to-face contact (e.g. sales visits, trade shows) have been unavailable, and usage of digitally-driven information channels (e.g. videoconferencing, platforms) has skyrocketed. This paper explores the question in which areas the pandemic induced shift in the use of information channels could be sustainable and in which areas it is a temporary phenomenon. While information and buying behavior in B2C purchases has been regularly studied in the last decade, the last fundamental model of organizational buying behavior in B2B was introduced by Johnston and Lewin (1996) in times before the advent of the internet. Subsequently, research efforts in B2B marketing shifted from organizational buyers and their decision and information behavior to the business relationships between sellers and buyers. This study builds on the extensive literature on situational factors influencing organizational buying and information behavior and uses the economics of information theory as a theoretical framework. The research focuses on the German woodworking industry, which before the Covid-19 crisis was characterized by a rather low level of digitization of information channels. By focusing on an industry with traditional communication structures, a shift in information behavior induced by an exogenous shock is considered a ripe research setting. The study is exploratory in nature. The primary data source is 40 in-depth interviews based on the repertory-grid method. Thus, 120 typical buying situations in the woodworking industry and the information and channels relevant to them are identified. The results are combined into clusters, each of which shows similar information behavior in the procurement process. In the next step, the clusters are analyzed in terms of the post and pre-Covid-19 crisis’ behavior identifying stable and dynamic information behavior aspects. Initial results show that, for example, clusters representing search goods with low risk and complexity suggest a sustainable rise in the use of digitally-driven information channels. However, in clusters containing trust goods with high significance and novelty, an increased return to face-to-face information channels can be expected after the Covid-19 crisis. The results are interesting from both a scientific and a practical point of view. This study is one of the first to apply the economics of information theory to organizational buyers and their decision and information behavior in the digital information age. Especially the focus on the dynamic aspects of information behavior after an exogenous shock might contribute new impulses to theoretical debates related to the economics of information theory. For practitioners - especially suppliers’ marketing managers and intermediaries such as publishers or trade show organizers from the woodworking industry - the study shows wide-ranging starting points for a future-oriented segmentation of their marketing program by highlighting the dynamic and stable preferences of elaborated clusters in the choice of their information channels.

Keywords: B2B buying process, crisis, economics of information theory, information channel

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Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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Authors: Mkpoikanke Sunday Otu

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Introduction: Career anxiety is a common issue among university students, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. This anxiety can significantly impact students' academic performance, overall well-being, and future career prospects. Therefore, it is crucial to explore effective interventions that can alleviate career anxiety among university students. The primary aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of a psychosocial intervention in reducing career anxiety among Nigerian university students. The study employed a group randomized trial research design to further analyze the impact on career anxiety. Methodology: A total of 306 university students from various universities in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria, were recruited for this study. The participants were purposively selected to ensure diversity and represent a range of academic disciplines. A group randomized trial research design was employed, with participants randomly assigned to either the treatment group or the control group. The treatment group received a comprehensive psychosocial intervention, while the control group served as a comparison group. The Career Anxiety Questionnaire (CAQ) was used to assess career anxiety levels among the participants. The CAQ is a validated and reliable tool that assesses various aspects of career-related anxiety, including uncertainty, fear, and self-doubt. It was administered to the participants at baseline (before the intervention), immediately after the intervention, and at follow-up (after the intervention). Results: Data analysis was conducted using statistical techniques, including analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results demonstrated that the treatment group showed a significantly lower mean score of career anxiety compared to the control group (p-value<0.05). This finding suggests that the psychosocial intervention was effective in reducing the career anxiety levels of the participants at post-test and follow-up. Conclusion: The findings of this study provide compelling evidence that psychosocial interventions have a significant impact on the reduction of career anxiety among Nigerian university students. The treatment group demonstrated a significant reduction in career anxiety scores, indicating the effectiveness of this intervention. Additionally, this study highlights the importance of addressing the career anxiety challenges faced by university students. By implementing targeted interventions, educational institutions can play a vital role in supporting the overall well-being and success of their students, both academically and professionally.

Keywords: psychosocial intervention, career anxiety, psychoeducation, university students

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Authors: Faishal Muhammad, Erlinda Muslim, Nadia Faradilla, Sayidul Fikri

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To deal with the increase of mass transportation needs problem, PT. Kereta Commuter Jabodetabek (KCJ) implements Commuter Vending Machine (C-VIM) as the solution. For that background, C-VIM is implemented as a substitute to the conventional ticket windows with the purposes to make transaction process more efficient and to introduce self-service technology to the commuter line user. However, this implementation causing problems and long queues when the user is not accustomed to using the machine. The objective of this research is to evaluate user experience after using the commuter vending machine. The goal is to analyze the existing user experience problem and to achieve a better user experience design. The evaluation method is done by giving task scenario according to the features offered by the machine. The features are daily insured ticket sales, ticket refund, and multi-trip card top up. There 20 peoples that separated into two groups of respondents involved in this research, which consist of 5 males and 5 females each group. The experienced and inexperienced user to prove that there is a significant difference between both groups in the measurement. The user experience is measured by both quantitative and qualitative measurement. The quantitative measurement includes the user performance metrics such as task success, time on task, error, efficiency, and learnability. The qualitative measurement includes system usability scale questionnaire (SUS), questionnaire for user interface satisfaction (QUIS), and retrospective think aloud (RTA). Usability performance metrics shows that 4 out of 5 indicators are significantly different in both group. This shows that the inexperienced group is having a problem when using the C-VIM. Conventional ticket windows also show a better usability performance metrics compared to the C-VIM. From the data processing, the experienced group give the SUS score of 62 with the acceptability scale of 'marginal low', grade scale of “D”, and the adjective ratings of 'good' while the inexperienced group gives the SUS score of 51 with the acceptability scale of 'marginal low', grade scale of 'F', and the adjective ratings of 'ok'. This shows that both groups give a low score on the system usability scale. The QUIS score of the experienced group is 69,18 and the inexperienced group is 64,20. This shows the average QUIS score below 70 which indicate a problem with the user interface. RTA was done to obtain user experience issue when using C-VIM through interview protocols. The issue obtained then sorted using pareto concept and diagram. The solution of this research is interface redesign using activity relationship chart. This method resulted in a better interface with an average SUS score of 72,25, with the acceptable scale of 'acceptable', grade scale of 'B', and the adjective ratings of 'excellent'. From the time on task indicator of performance metrics also shows a significant better time by using the new interface design. Result in this study shows that C-VIM not yet have a good performance and user experience.

Keywords: activity relationship chart, commuter line vending machine, system usability scale, usability performance metrics, user experience evaluation

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Authors: Lundqvist M., Alwin J., Levin L-A.

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Background: Assistance dogs are dogs trained to assist persons with functional impairment or chronic diseases. The assistance dog concept includes different types: guide dogs, hearing dogs, and service dogs. The service dog can further be divided into subgroups of physical services dogs, diabetes alert dogs, and seizure alert dogs. To examine the long-term effects of health care interventions, both in terms of resource use and health outcomes, cost-effectiveness analyses can be conducted. This analysis can provide important input to decision-makers when setting priorities. Little is known when it comes to the cost-effectiveness of assistance dogs. The study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of certified service or hearing dogs in comparison to regular companion dogs. Methods: The main data source for the analysis was the “service and hearing dog project”. It was a longitudinal interventional study with a pre-post design that incorporated fifty-five owners and their dogs. Data on all relevant costs affected by the use of a service dog such as; municipal services, health care costs, costs of sick leave, and costs of informal care were collected. Health-related quality of life was measured with the standardized instrument EQ-5D-3L. A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis. Outcomes were estimated over a 10-year time horizon. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as cost per gained quality-adjusted life year was the primary outcome. The analysis employed a societal perspective. Results: The result of the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that compared to a regular companion dog, a certified dog is cost-effective with both lower total costs [-32,000 USD] and more quality-adjusted life-years [0.17]. Also, we will present subgroup results analyzing the cost-effectiveness of physicals service dogs and diabetes alert dogs. Conclusions: The study shows that a certified dog is cost-effective in comparison with a regular companion dog for individuals with functional impairments or chronic diseases. Analyses of uncertainty imply that further studies are needed.

Keywords: service dogs, hearing dogs, health economics, Markov model, quality-adjusted, life years

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