Search results for: ruin probability

Authors: Majid Saaly, Shahriar Tavousi Tafreshi, Mehdi Nazari Afshar

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Most reinforced concrete structures are designed only under heavy loads have large transverse reinforcement spacing values, and therefore suffer severe failure after intense ground movements. The main goal of this paper is to compare the shear- and axial failure of concrete bending frames available in Tehran using incremental dynamic analysis under near- and far-field records. For this purpose, IDA analyses of 5, 10, and 15-story concrete structures were done under seven far-fault records and five near-faults records. The results show that in two-dimensional models of short-rise, mid-rise and high-rise reinforced concrete frames located on Type-3 soil, increasing the distance of the transverse reinforcement can increase the maximum inter-story drift ratio values up to 37%. According to the existing results on 5, 10, and 15-story reinforced concrete models located on Type-3 soil, records with characteristics such as fling-step and directivity create maximum drift values between floors more than far-fault earthquakes. The results indicated that in the case of seismic excitation modes under earthquake encompassing directivity or fling-step, the probability values of failure and failure possibility increasing rate values are much smaller than the corresponding values of far-fault earthquakes. However, in near-fault frame records, the probability of exceedance occurs at lower seismic intensities compared to far-fault records.

Keywords: IDA, failure curve, directivity, maximum floor drift, fling step, evaluating probable bending of frames, near-field and far-field earthquake records

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Authors: Gebrekiros Welegebriel Asfaw

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The management of the fragile, unique and irreplaceable cultural heritage from different perspectives is becoming a major challenge as important elements of culture are vanishing throughout the globe. The major purpose of this study is to assess how the cultural heritages of Aksum are managed for their future sustainability from heritage conservation and interpretation perspectives. Descriptive type of research design inculcating both quantitative and qualitative research methods is employed. Primary quantitative data was collected from 189 respondents (19 professionals, 88 tourism service providers and 82 tourists) and interview was conducted with 33 targeted informants from heritage and related professions, security employees, local community, service providers and church representatives by applying probability and non probability sampling methods. Findings of the study reveal that the overall sustainable management status of the cultural heritage of Aksum is below average. It is found that the sustainability of cultural heritage management in Aksum is facing a lot of unfavorable factors like lack of long term planning, incompatible system of heritage administration, limited capacity and number of professionals, scant attention to community based heritage and tourism development, dirtiness and drainage problems, problems with stakeholder involvement and cooperation, lack of organized interpretation and presentation systems and others. So, re-organization of the management system, creating platform for coordination among stakeholders and developing appropriate interpretation system can be good remedies. Introducing community based heritage and tourism development concept is also recommendable for a long term win-win success in Aksum.

Keywords: Aksum, conservation, interpretation, Sustainable Cultural Heritage Management

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Authors: Anna Siuda-Bak

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This paper adopts a comparative approach to examining the determinants of international mobility of German, Italian and British researchers who completed their doctoral education in the UK. Structured sampling and data collection techniques have been developed in order to retrieve information on participants from publicly available sources. This systematically collected data was supplemented with an on-line survey which captures participants’ job trajectories, including movements between positions, institutions and countries. In total, data on 949 German, Italian and British PhDs was collected. Logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with one’s probability of moving outside the UK after his or her graduation. The predictor variables included factors associated with one’s PhD (field of study, ranking of the university which awarded the PhD degree) and family factors (having a child, nationality of the partner). Then, 9 constrained models were estimated to test the effect each variable has on probability of going to a specific destination, being English-speaking country, non-English speaking country or returning to the home country. The results show that females, arts and humanities graduates, and respondents with a partner from the UK are less mobile than their counterparts. The effect of the ranking of the university differed in two groups. The UK graduates from higher ranked universities were more likely to move abroad than to stay in the UK after their graduation. In contrast, non-UK natives from the same universities were less likely to be internationally mobile than non-UK natives from lower ranked universities. The nationality of the partner was the most important predictor of the specific destination choices. Graduates with partner from the home county were more likely to return home and those with a partner from the third country least likely to return.

Keywords: doctoral graduates, international mobility, nationality, UK

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Authors: P. V. S. Mascarenhas, B. C. P. Albuquerque, D. J. F. Campos, L. L. Almeida, V. R. Domingues, L. C. S. M. Ozelim

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Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.

Keywords: economical analysis, probability of failure, retaining walls, statistical analysis

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Authors: Khanh To Duc, Monica Chiogna, Gianfranco Adimari

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With three diagnostic categories, assessment of the performance of diagnostic tests is achieved by the analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface, which generalizes the ROC curve for binary diagnostic outcomes. The volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is a summary index usually employed for measuring the overall diagnostic accuracy. When the true disease status can be exactly assessed by means of a gold standard (GS) test, unbiased nonparametric estimators of the ROC surface and VUS are easily obtained. In practice, unfortunately, disease status verification via the GS test could be unavailable for all study subjects, due to the expensiveness or invasiveness of the GS test. Thus, often only a subset of patients undergoes disease verification. Statistical evaluations of diagnostic accuracy based only on data from subjects with verified disease status are typically biased. This bias is known as verification bias. Here, we consider the problem of correcting for verification bias when continuous diagnostic tests for three-class disease status are considered. We assume that selection for disease verification does not depend on disease status, given test results and other observed covariates, i.e., we assume that the true disease status, when missing, is missing at random. Under this assumption, we discuss several solutions for ROC surface analysis based on imputation and re-weighting methods. In particular, verification bias-corrected estimators of the ROC surface and of VUS are proposed, namely, full imputation, mean score imputation, inverse probability weighting and semiparametric efficient estimators. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established, and their finite sample behavior is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulation studies. Two illustrations using real datasets are also given.

Keywords: imputation, missing at random, inverse probability weighting, ROC surface analysis

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Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

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Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include such as the cost of infrastructure, personnel and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. More research has been done to identify the various factors that affect road accidents, such as road infrastructure, traffic, sociodemographic characteristics, land use, and the environment. The aim of this research is to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using machine learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons like overspeeding etc., in the United States. These factors range from weather factors, like weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity to human made structures like road structure factors like bump, roundabout, no exit, turning loop, give away, etc. Probabilities are dissected into ten different classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes that happened in all states collected by the US government. To calculate the probability, multinomial expected value was used and assigned a classification label as the crash probability. We applied three different classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-deep insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Maria Arechavaleta, Mark Halpin

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In the United States, costs of solar energy systems have declined to the point that they are viable options for most consumers. However, there are no consistent procedures for specifying sufficient systems. The factors that must be considered are energy consumption, potential solar energy production, and cost. The traditional method of specifying solar energy systems is based on assumed daily levels of available solar energy and average amounts of daily energy consumption. The mismatches between energy production and consumption are usually mitigated using battery energy storage systems, and energy use is curtailed when necessary. The main consumer decision question that drives the total system cost is how much unserved (or curtailed) energy is acceptable? Of course additional solar conversion equipment can be installed to provide greater peak energy production and extra energy storage capability can be added to mitigate longer lasting low solar energy production periods. Each option increases total cost and provides a benefit which is difficult to quantify accurately. An approach to quantify the cost-benefit of adding additional resources, either production or storage or both, based on the statistical concepts of loss-of-energy probability and expected unserved energy, is presented in this paper. Relatively simple calculations, based on site-specific energy availability and consumption data, can be used to show the value of each additional increment of production or storage. With this incremental benefit-cost information, consumers can select the best overall performance combination for their application at a cost they are comfortable paying. The approach is based on a statistical analysis of energy consumption and production characteristics over time. The characteristics are in the forms of curves with each point on the curve representing an energy consumption or production value over a period of time; a one-minute period is used for the work in this paper. These curves are measured at the consumer location under the conditions that exist at the site and the duration of the measurements is a minimum of one week. While greater accuracy could be obtained with longer recording periods, the examples in this paper are based on a single week for demonstration purposes. The weekly consumption and production curves are overlaid on each other and the mismatches are used to size the battery energy storage system. Loss-of-energy probability and expected unserved energy indices are calculated in addition to the total system cost. These indices allow the consumer to recognize and quantify the benefit (probably a reduction in energy consumption curtailment) available for a given increase in cost. Consumers can then make informed decisions that are accurate for their location and conditions and which are consistent with their available funds.

Keywords: battery energy storage systems, loss of load probability, residential renewable energy, solar energy systems

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Authors: Nizar Ghali, Bernard Fortin, Guy Lacroix

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In Quebec, colonoscopies volumes have continued to rise in recent years in the absence of effective monitoring mechanism for the appropriateness and the quality of these exams. In 2010, November, Quebec Government introduced the colorectal cancer-screening program in the objective to control for volume and cost imperfection. This program is based on clinical standards and was initiated for first group of institutions. One year later, Government adds financial incentives for participants institutions. In this analysis, we want to assess for the causal effect of the two components of this program: clinical pathways and financial incentives. Especially we assess for the reform effect on healthcare quality and population health in the context that medical remuneration is not directly dependent on this additional funding offered by the program. We have data on admissions episodes and deaths for 8 years. We use multistate model analog to difference in difference approach to estimate reform effect on the transition probability between different states for each patient. Our results show that the reform reduced length of stay without deterioration in hospital mortality or readmission rate. In the other hand, the program contributed to decrease the hospitalization rate and a less invasive treatment approach for colorectal surgeries. This is a sign of healthcare quality and population health improvement. We demonstrate in this analysis that physicians’ behavior can be affected by both clinical standards and financial incentives even if offered to facilities.

Keywords: multi-state and multi-episode transition model, healthcare quality, length of stay, transition probability, difference in difference

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Authors: Pratima Pokharel

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When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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Authors: Jesse Rafeiro

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This paper discusses worldbuilding as a pedagogical approach to the first-year architectural design studio. The studio ran for three consecutive terms between 2016-2018. Taking its departure from the fifty-five city narratives in Italo Calvino’s Invisible Cities, students collectively designed in a “nowhere” space where intersecting and diverging narratives could be played out. Along with Calvino, students navigated between three main exercises and their imposed limits to develop architectural insight at three scales simulating the considerations of architectural practice: detail, building, and city. The first exercise asked each student to design and model a ruin based on randomly assigned incongruent fragments. Each student was given one plan fragment and two section fragments from different Renaissance Treatises. The students were asked to translate these in alternating axonometric projection and model-making explorations. Although the fragments themselves were imposed, students were free to interpret how the drawings fit together by imagining new details and atypical placements. An undulating terrain model was introduced in the second exercise to ground the worldbuilding exercises. Here, students were required to negotiate with one another to design a city of ruins. Free to place their models anywhere on the site, the students were restricted by the negotiation of territories marked by other students and the requirement to provide thresholds, open spaces, and corridors. The third exercise introduced new life into the ruined city through a series of design interventions. Each student was assigned an atypical building program suggesting a place for an activity, human or nonhuman. The atypical nature of the programs challenged the triviality of functional planning through explorations in spatial narratives free from preconceived assumptions. By contesting, playing out, or dreaming responses to realities taught in other coursework, this third exercise actualized learnings that are too often self-contained in the silos of differing course agendas. As such, the studio fostered an initial worldbuilding space within which to sharpen sensibility and criticality for subsequent years of education.

Keywords: architectural pedagogy, critical pedagogy, Italo Calvino, worldbuilding

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Authors: Osama Zayed

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Aim of the work: The aim of this study is to assess the predictors of pelvic vascular injuries in patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma. Methods: This study was conducted as a tool-assessment study. Forty six patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma will be recruited to the study arriving to department of emergency, Suez Canal University Hospital. Data were collected from questionnaire including; personal data of the studied patients and full medical history, clinical examinations, outcome measures (The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), laboratory and imaging studies. Patients underwent surgical interventions or further investigations based on the conventional standards for interventions. All patients were followed up during conservative, operative and post-operative periods in the hospital for interpretation the predictive scores of vascular injuries. Results: Significant predictors of vascular injuries according to computed tomography (CT) scan include age, male gender, lower Glasgow coma (GCS) scores, occurrence of hypotension, mortality rate, higher physical POSSUM scores, presence of ultrasound collection, type of management, higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) POSSUM scores, presence of abdominal injuries, and poor outcome. Conclusions: There was higher frequency of males than females in the studied patients. There were high probability of morbidity and low probability of mortality among patients. Our study demonstrates that POSSUM score can be used as a predictor of vascular injury in pelvis fracture patients.

Keywords: predictors, pelvic vascular injuries, pelvic fractures, major blunt trauma, POSSUM

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Authors: O. V. Vyazovska

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Behavioral efficiency is one of the main principles to be successful in nature. Accuracy of visual discrimination is determined by the attention, learning experience, and memory. In the experimental condition, pigeons’ responses to visual stimuli presented on the screen of the monitor are behaviorally manifested by pecking or not pecking the stimulus, by the number of pecking, reaction time, etc. The higher the probability of rewarding is, the more likely pigeons will respond to the stimulus. We trained 8 pigeons (Columba livia) on a stagewise go/no-go visual discrimination task.16 visual stimuli were created from all possible combinations of four binary dimensions: brightness (dark/bright), size (large/small), line orientation (vertical/horizontal), and shape (circle/square). In the first stage, we presented S+ and 4 S-stimuli: the first that differed in all 4-dimensional values from S+, the second with brightness dimension sharing with S+, the third sharing brightness and orientation with S+, the fourth sharing brightness, orientation and size. Then all 16 stimuli were added. Pigeons rejected correctly 6-8 of 11 new added S-stimuli at the beginning of the second stage. The results revealed that pigeons’ behavior at the beginning of the second stage was controlled by probabilities of rewarding for 4 dimensions learned in the first stage. More or fewer mistakes with dimension discrimination at the beginning of the second stage depended on the number S- stimuli sharing the dimension with S+ in the first stage. A significant inverse correlation between the number of S- stimuli sharing dimension values with S+ in the first stage and the dimensional learning rate at the beginning of the second stage was found. Pigeons were more confident in discrimination of shape and size dimensions. They made mistakes at the beginning of the second stage, which were not associated with these dimensions. Thus, the received results help elucidate the principles of dimensional stimulus control during learning compound multidimensional visual stimuli.

Keywords: visual go/no go discrimination, selective attention, dimensional stimulus control, pigeon

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Authors: Fariha Asif

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The Saudi EFL learners face a number of problems in EFL learning, anxiety is the most potent one among those. It means that its resolution can lead to better language skills in Saudi students. That’s why, the study is carried out and is considered to be of interest to the Saudi language learners, educators and the policy makers because of the potentially negative impact that anxiety has on English language learning. The purpose of the study is to explore the factors that cause language anxiety in the Saudi EFL learners while learning speaking skills and the influence it casts on communication in the target language. The investigation of the anxiety-producing factors that arise while learning to communicate in the target language will hopefully broaden the insight into the issue of language anxiety and will help language teachers in making the classroom environment less stressful. The study seeks to answer the questions such as what are the psycholinguistic factors that cause language anxiety among ESL/EFL learners in learning and speaking English Language, especially in the context of the Saudi students. What are the socio-cultural factors that cause language anxiety among Saudi EFL learners in learning and speaking English Language? How is anxiety manifested in the language learning of the Saudi EFL learners? And which strategies can be used to successfully cope with language anxiety? The scope of the study is limited to the college and university English Teachers and subject specialists (males and females) in public sectors colleges and universities in Saudi Arabia. Some of the key findings of the study are:, Anxiety plays an important role in English as foreign language learning for the Saudi EFL learners. Some teachers believe that anxiety bears negatives effects for the learners, while some others think that anxiety serves a positive outcome for the learners by giving them an extra bit of motivation to do their best in English language learning. Language teachers seem to have consensus that L1 interference is one of the major factors that cause anxiety among the Saudi EFL learners. Most of the Saudi EFL learners are found to have fear of making mistakes. They don’t take initiative and opt to keep quiet and don’t respond fearing that they would make mistakes and this would ruin their image in front of their peers. Discouraging classroom environment is also counted as one of the major anxiety causing factors. The teachers, who don’t encourage learners positively, make them anxious and they start avoiding class participation. It is also found that English language teachers have their important role to minimize the negative effects of anxiety in the classes. The teachers’ positive encouragement can do wonders in this regard. A positive, motivating and encouraging class environment is essential to produce desired results in English language learning for the Saudi EFL learners.

Keywords: factors, psychology, speaking, EFL

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Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

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Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

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Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao

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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.

Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis

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Authors: Michael McCann

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Managerial theories propose that, in joint stock companies, executives may be tempted to waste excess free cash on unprofitable projects to keep control of resources. In order to conceal their projects' poor performance, they may seek to engage in earnings management. On the one hand, managers may manipulate earnings upwards in order to post ‘good’ performances and safeguard their position. On the other, since managers pursuit of unrewarding investments are likely to lead to low long-term profitability, managers will use negative accruals to reduce current year’s earnings, smoothing earnings over time in order to conceal the negative effects. Agency models argue that boards of directors are delegated by shareholders to ensure that companies are governed properly. Part of that responsibility is ensuring the reliability of financial information. Analyses of the impact of board characteristics, particularly board independence on the misuse of free cash flow and earnings management finds conflicting evidence. However, existing characterizations of board independence do not account for such directors gaining firm-specific knowledge over time, influencing their monitoring ability. Further, there is little analysis of the influence of the relative experience of independent directors and executives on decisions surrounding the use of free cash. This paper contributes to this literature regarding the heterogeneous characteristics of boards by investigating the influence of independent director tenure on earnings management and the relative tenures of independent directors and Chief Executives. A balanced panel dataset comprising 51 companies across 11 annual periods from 2005 to 2015 is used for the analysis. In each annual period, firms were classified as conducting earnings management if they had discretionary accruals in the bottom quartile (downwards) and top quartile (upwards) of the distributed values for the sample. Logistical regressions were conducted to determine the marginal impact of independent board tenure and a number of control variables on the probability of conducting earnings management. The findings indicate that both absolute and relative measures of board independence and experience do not have a significant impact on the likelihood of earnings management. It is the level of free cash flow which is the major influence on the probability of earnings management. Higher free cash flow increases the probability of earnings management significantly. The research also investigates whether board monitoring of earnings management is contingent on the level of free cash flow. However, the results suggest that board monitoring is not amplified when free cash flow is higher. This suggests that the extent of earnings management in companies is determined by a range of company, industry and situation-specific factors.

Keywords: corporate governance, boards of directors, agency theory, earnings management

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Authors: Dinesh Inamadar, R. Venugopalan, K. Padmini

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An attempt has been made in the present communication to elucidate the efficacy of robust ANOVA methods to analyze horticultural field experimental data in the presence of outliers. Results obtained fortify the use of robust ANOVA methods as there was substantiate reduction in error mean square, and hence the probability of committing Type I error, as compared to the regular approach.

Keywords: outliers, robust ANOVA, horticulture, cook distance, type I error

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Authors: Mubarak Suliman, Mohamed Hassan

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Detection of downed conductors occurring with high fault resistance (reaching kilo-ohms) has always been a challenge, especially in countries like Saudi Arabia, on which earth resistivity is very high in general (reaching more than 1000 Ω-meter). The new approaches for the detection of resistive and high impedance faults are based on the analysis of the fault current waveform. These methods are still under research and development, and they are currently lacking security and dependability. The other approach is communication-based solutions which depends on voltage measurement at the end of overhead line branches and communicate the measured signals to substation feeder relay or a central control center. However, such a detection method is costly and depends on the availability of communication medium and infrastructure. The main objective of this research is to utilize the available standard protection schemes to increase the probability of detection of downed conductors occurring with a low magnitude of fault currents and at the same time avoiding unwanted tripping in healthy conditions and feeders. By specifying the operating region of the faulty feeder, use of tripping curve for discrimination between faulty and healthy feeders, and with proper selection of core balance current transformer (CBCT) and voltage transformers with fewer measurement errors, it is possible to set the pick-up of sensitive earth fault current to minimum values of few amps (i.e., Pick-up Settings = 3 A or 4 A, …) for the detection of earth faults with fault resistance more than (1 - 2 kΩ) for 13.8kV overhead network and more than (3-4) kΩ fault resistance in 33kV overhead network. By implementation of the outcomes of this study, the probability of detection of downed conductors is increased by the utilization of existing schemes (i.e., Directional Sensitive Earth Fault Protection).

Keywords: sensitive earth fault, zero sequence current, grounded system, resistive fault detection, healthy feeder

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Authors: Vaishakh Medikeri

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Lightning, the marvelous, spectacular and the awesome truth of nature is one of the greatest energy sources left unharnessed since ages. A single lightning bolt of lightning contains energy of about 15 billion joules. This huge amount of energy cannot be harnessed completely but partially. This paper proposes to harness the energy from lightning strikes. Throughout the globe the frequency of lightning is 40-50 flashes per second, totally 1.4 billion flashes per year; all of these flashes carrying an average energy of about 15 billion joules each. When a lightning bolt strikes the ground, tremendous amounts of energy is transferred to earth which propagates in the form of concentric circular energy waves. These waves have a frequency of about 7.83Hz. Harvesting the lightning bolt directly seems impossible, but harvesting the energy waves produced by the lightning is pretty easier. This can be done using a tricoil energy harnesser which is a new device which I have invented. We know that lightning bolt seeks the path which has minimum resistance down to the earth. For this we can make a lightning rod about 100 meters high. Now the lightning rod is attached to the tricoil energy harnesser. The tricoil energy harnesser contains three coils whose centers are collinear and all the coils are parallel to the ground. The first coil has one of its ends connected to the lightning rod and the other end grounded. There is a secondary coil wound on the first coil with one of its end grounded and the other end pointing to the ground and left unconnected and placed a little bit above the ground so that this end of the coil produces more intense currents, hence producing intense energy waves. The first coil produces very high magnetic fields and induces them in the second and third coils. Along with the magnetic fields induced by the first coil, the energy waves which are currents also flow through the second and the third coils. The second and the third coils are connected to a generator which in turn is connected to a capacitor which stores the electrical energy. The first coil is placed in the middle of the second and the third coil. The stored energy can be used for transmission of electricity. This new technique of harnessing the lightning strikes would be most efficient in places with more probability of the lightning strikes. Since we are using a lightning rod sufficiently long, the probability of cloud to ground strikes is increased. If the proposed apparatus is implemented, it would be a great source of pure and clean energy.

Keywords: generator, lightning rod, tricoil energy harnesser, harvesting energy

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Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Tsz W. Tsang

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Many Hong Kong people nowadays spend most of their lifetime working indoor. Since poor Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) potentially leads to discomfort, ill health, low productivity and even absenteeism in workplaces, a call for establishing statutory IAQ control to safeguard the well-being of residents is urgently required. Although policies, strategies, and guidelines for workplace IAQ diagnosis have been developed elsewhere and followed with remedial works, some of those workplaces or buildings have relatively late stage of the IAQ problems when the investigation or remedial work started. Screening for IAQ problems should be initiated as it will provide information as a minimum provision of IAQ baseline requisite to the resolution of the problems. It is not practical to sample all air pollutants that exit. Nevertheless, as a statutory control, reliable, rapid screening is essential in accordance with a compromise strategy, which balances costs against detection of key pollutants. This study investigates the feasibility of using an IAQ index as a parameter of IAQ control in Hong Kong. The index is a screening parameter to identify the unsatisfactory workplace IAQ and will highlight where a fully effective IAQ monitoring and assessment is needed for an intensive diagnosis. There already exist a number of representative common indoor pollutants based on some extensive IAQ assessments. The selection of pollutants is surrogate to IAQ control consists of dilution, mitigation, and emission control. The IAQ Index and assessment will look at high fractional quantities of these common measurement parameters. With the support of the existing comprehensive regional IAQ database and the IAQ Index by the research team as the pre-assessment probability, and the unsatisfactory IAQ prevalence as the post-assessment probability from this study, thresholds of maintaining the current measures and performing a further IAQ test or IAQ remedial measures will be proposed. With justified resources, the proposed IAQ Index and assessment protocol might be a useful tool for setting up a practical public IAQ surveillance programme and policy in Hong Kong.

Keywords: assessment, index, indoor air quality, surveillance programme

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Authors: Aparna Lal, Ashwin Swaminathan, Teisa Holani

Abstract:

Background: Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) have been on the rise globally. In Australia, rates of CDI in all States and Territories have increased significantly since mid-2011. Identifying risk factors for CDI in the community can help inform targeted interventions to reduce infection. Methods: We examine the role of neighbourhood socio-economic status, demography, testing practices and the number of residential aged care facilities on spatial patterns in CDI incidence in the Australian Capital Territory. Data on all tests conducted for CDI were obtained from ACT Pathology by postcode for the period 1st January 2004 through 31 December 2014. Distribution of age groups and the neighbourhood Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage Disadvantage (IRSAD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 National Census data. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the postcode level to quantify the relationship between CDI and socio-demographic factors. To identify CDI hotspots, exceedance probabilities were set at a threshold of twice the estimated relative risk. Results: CDI showed a positive spatial association with the number of tests (RR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.02) and the resident population over 65 years (RR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). The standardized index of relative socio-economic advantage disadvantage (IRSAD) was significantly negatively associated with CDI (RR=0.74, 95% CI 0.56, 0.94). We identified three postcodes with high probability (0.8-1.0) of excess risk. Conclusions: Here, we demonstrate geographic variations in CDI in the ACT with a positive association of CDI with socioeconomic disadvantage and identify areas with a high probability of elevated risk compared with surrounding communities. These findings highlight community-based risk factors for CDI.

Keywords: spatial, socio-demographic, infection, Clostridium difficile

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Authors: Omer Yeni

Abstract:

Ground strata failure or fall-of-ground is one of the underground mines' most prominent catastrophic risks. Mining companies use various methods/technics to prevent and critically control the associated risks. Some of those are safety by design, excavation methods, ground support, training, and competency, which all require quality control and assurance activities to confirm their efficiencies and performances and identify improvement opportunities through monitoring. However, many mining companies use quality control (QC) methods without quality assurance (QA), and they call it QA/QC together as a habit. From a simple definition, QC is a method of detecting defects, and QA is a method of preventing defects. Testing the final products at the end of the production line is not the way of proper QA/QC application but testing every component before assembly and the final product once completed. The installed ground support elements are some final products mining companies use to prevent ground strata failure. Testing the final product (i.e., rock bolt pull testing, shotcrete strength test, etc.) with QC methods only while those areas are already accessible; is not like testing an airplane full of passengers right after the production line or testing a car after the sale. Can only QC methods be called QA/QC? Can QA/QC activities be numerically scored for each critical control implemented to assess ground strata failure potential? Can numerical scores be used to identify Geotechnical Risk Rating (GRR) to determine the ground strata failure risk and its probability? This paper sets out to provide a specific QA/QC methodology to manage and confirm efficiencies and performances of the implemented critical controls and a numerical approach through the Geotechnical Risk Rating (GRR) process to assess ground strata failure risk to determine the gaps where proactive action is required to evaluate the probability of ground strata failures in underground mines.

Keywords: fall of ground, ground strata failure, QA/QC, underground

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Authors: M. Reni Sagayaraj, S. Anand Gnana Selvam, R. Reynald Susainathan

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In this paper we study that the catastrophic events arrive independently at the service facility according to a Poisson process with rate λ. The nature of a catastrophic event is that upon its arrival at a service station, it destroys all the customers there waiting and in the service. We will derive the net profit associated with queuing system and obtain its probability of the busy period.

Keywords: queueing system, net-profit, busy period, catastrophical events

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Authors: Waqas Ali, Nadeem Majeed

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Requirement engineering is an essence of software development life cycle. The more time we spend on requirement engineering, higher the probability of success. Effective requirement engineering ensures and predicts successful software product. This paper presents the adaptation of requirement engineering practices in small and medium size companies of Pakistan. The study is conducted by questionnaires to show how much of requirement engineering models and practices are followed in Pakistan.

Keywords: requirement engineering, Pakistan, models, practices, organizations

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Authors: Bipin Popat Sonawane

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After 1988 Electron muon Collaboration (EMC) announcement of measurement of spin dependent structure function, it has been found that it has become a need to understand spin structure of a hadron. In the study of three-dimensional spin structure of a proton, we need to understand the foundation of quantum field theory in terms of electro-weak and strong theories using rigorous mathematical theories and models. In the process of understanding the inner dynamical stricture of proton we need understand the mathematical formalism in perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD). In QCD processes like proton-proton collision at high energy we calculate cross section using conventional collinear factorization schemes. In this calculations, parton distribution functions (PDFs) and fragmentation function are used which provide the information about probability density of finding quarks and gluons ( partons) inside the proton and probability density of finding final hadronic state from initial partons. In transverse momentum dependent (TMD) PDFs and FFs, collectively called as TMDs, take an account for intrinsic transverse motion of partons. The TMD factorization in the calculation of cross sections provide a scheme of hadronic and partonic states in the given QCD process. In this study we review Transverse Momentum Dependent (TMD) factorization scheme using Collins-Soper-Sterman (CSS) Formalism. CSS formalism considers the transverse momentum dependence of the partons, in this formalism the cross section is written as a Fourier transform over a transverse position variable which has physical interpretation as impact parameter. Along with this we compare this formalism with improved CSS formalism. In this work we study the TMD evolution schemes and their comparison with other schemes. This would provide description in the process of measurement of transverse single spin asymmetry (TSSA) in hadro-production and electro-production of J/psi meson at RHIC, LHC, ILC energy scales. This would surely help us to understand J/psi production mechanism which is an appropriate test of QCD.

Keywords: QCD, PDF, TMD, CSS

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Authors: H. Hajimolahoseini, J. Hashemi, D. Redfearn

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Background: Catheter ablation is an effective therapy for symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF). The intracardiac electrocardiogram (IEGM) collected during this procedure contains precious information that has not been explored to its full capacity. Novel processing techniques allow looking at these recordings from different perspectives which can lead to improved therapeutic approaches. In our previous study, we showed that variation in amplitude measured through Shannon Entropy could be used as an AF recurrence risk stratification factor in patients who received Ibutilide before the electrograms were recorded. The aim of this study is to further investigate the effect of Ibutilide on characteristics of the recorded signals from the left atrium (LA) of a patient with persistent AF before and after administration of the drug. Methods: The IEGMs collected from different intra-atrial sites of 12 patients were studied and compared before and after Ibutilide administration. First, the before and after Ibutilide IEGMs that were recorded within a Euclidian distance of 3 mm in LA were selected as pairs for comparison. For every selected pair of IEGMs, the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the amplitude in time domain and magnitude in frequency domain was estimated using the regression analysis. The PDF represents the relative likelihood of a variable falling within a specific range of values. Results: Our observations showed that in time domain, the PDF of amplitudes was fitted to a Gaussian distribution while in frequency domain, it was fitted to a Rayleigh distribution. Our observations also revealed that after Ibutilide administration, the IEGMs would have significantly narrower short-tailed PDFs both in time and frequency domains. Conclusion: This study shows that the PDFs of the IEGMs before and after administration of Ibutilide represents significantly different properties, both in time and frequency domains. Hence, by fitting the PDF of IEGMs in time domain to a Gaussian distribution or in frequency domain to a Rayleigh distribution, the effect of Ibutilide can easily be tracked using the statistics of their PDF (e.g., standard deviation) while this is difficult through the waveform of IEGMs itself.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, catheter ablation, probability distribution function, time-frequency characteristics

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Authors: Gurcharan Singh Buttar

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It has been discovered that although these two areas, statistics, and information theory, are independent in their nature, they can be combined to create applications in multidisciplinary mathematics. This is due to the fact that where in the field of statistics, statistical parameters (measures) play an essential role in reference to the population (distribution) under investigation. Information measure is crucial in the study of ambiguity, assortment, and unpredictability present in an array of phenomena. The following communication is a link between the two, and it has been demonstrated that the well-known conventional statistical measures can be used as a measure of information.

Keywords: probability distribution, entropy, concavity, symmetry, variance, central tendency

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Authors: Dimitriya A. Mihaylova, Zlatka V. Valkova-Jarvis, Georgi L. Iliev

Abstract:

One possible approach for maintaining the security of communication systems relies on Physical Layer Security mechanisms. However, in wireless time division duplex systems, where uplink and downlink channels are reciprocal, the channel estimate procedure is exposed to attacks known as pilot contamination, with the aim of having an enhanced data signal sent to the malicious user. The Shifted 2-N-PSK method involves two random legitimate pilots in the training phase, each of which belongs to a constellation, shifted from the original N-PSK symbols by certain degrees. In this paper, legitimate pilots’ offset values and their influence on the detection capabilities of the Shifted 2-N-PSK method are investigated. As the implementation of the technique depends on the relation between the shift angles rather than their specific values, the optimal interconnection between the two legitimate constellations is investigated. The results show that no regularity exists in the relation between the pilot contamination attacks (PCA) detection probability and the choice of offset values. Therefore, an adversary who aims to obtain the exact offset values can only employ a brute-force attack but the large number of possible combinations for the shifted constellations makes such a type of attack difficult to successfully mount. For this reason, the number of optimal shift value pairs is also studied for both 100% and 98% probabilities of detecting pilot contamination attacks. Although the Shifted 2-N-PSK method has been broadly studied in different signal-to-noise ratio scenarios, in multi-cell systems the interference from the signals in other cells should be also taken into account. Therefore, the inter-cell interference impact on the performance of the method is investigated by means of a large number of simulations. The results show that the detection probability of the Shifted 2-N-PSK decreases inversely to the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio.

Keywords: channel estimation, inter-cell interference, pilot contamination attacks, wireless communications

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Authors: D. Sigirli

Abstract:

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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