Search results for: risks

Authors: Riktesh Srivastava

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Online Shopping have established an astonishing evolution in the last few years. And it is now apparent that B2C architecture is becoming progressively imperative channel for even traditional brick and mortar type traders as well. In this completion knowing customers and predicting behavior are extremely important. More important, when any customer logs onto the B2C architecture, the traces of their buying patterns can be stored and used for future predictions. Such a prediction is called Customer Lifetime Value (CLV). Earlier, we used Net Present Value to do so, however, it ignores two important aspects of B2C architecture, “market risks” and “big amount of customer data”. Now, we use RFM- Recency, Frequency and Monetary Value to estimate the CLV, and as the term exemplifies, market risks, is well sheltered. Big Data Analysis is also roofed in RFM, which gives real exploration of the Big Data and lead to a better estimation for future cash flow from customers. In the present paper, 6 factors (collected from varied sources) are used to determine as to what attracts the customers to the B2C architecture. For these 6 factors, RFM is computed for 3 years (2013, 2014 and 2015) respectively. CLV and Revenue are the two parameters defined using RFM analysis, which gives the clear picture of the future predictions.

Keywords: CLV, RFM, revenue, recency, frequency, monetary value

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

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Authors: Bahadir Aydin

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Today it is difficult to reach accurate knowledge because of mass data. This huge data makes the environment more and more caotic. Data is a main piller of intelligence. There is a close tie between knowledge and intelligence. Information gathered from different sources can be modified, interpreted and classified by using knowledge development process. This process is applied in order to attain intelligence. Within this process the effect of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge is classified as explicit and tacit knowledge. Tacit knowledge can be seen as "only the tip of the iceberg”. This tacit knowledge accounts for much more than we guess in all intelligence cycle. If the concept of intelligence scrutinized, it can be seen that it contains risks, threats as well as success. The main purpose for all organization is to be succesful by eliminating risks and threats. Therefore, there is a need to connect or fuse existing information and the processes which can be used to develop it. By the help of process the decision-maker can be presented with a clear holistic understanding, as early as possible in the decision making process. Planning, execution and assessments are the key functions that connects to information to knowledge. Altering from the current traditional reactive approach to a proactive knowledge development approach would reduce extensive duplication of work in the organization. By new approach to this process, knowledge can be used more effectively.

Keywords: knowledge, intelligence cycle, tacit knowledge, KIDW

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Authors: Loh Fu Quan, Fong Zi Heng, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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Cloud computing has completely transformed the way many businesses operate. Traditionally, confidential data of a business is stored in computers located within the premise of the business. Therefore, a lot of business capital is put towards maintaining computing resources and hiring IT teams to manage them. The advent of cloud computing changes everything. Instead of purchasing and managing their infrastructure, many businesses have started to shift towards working with the cloud with the help of a cloud service provider (CSP), leading to cost savings. However, it also introduces security risks. This research paper focuses on the security risks that arise during data migration and user authentication in cloud computing. To overcome this problem, this paper provides a comprehensive framework that includes Transport Layer Security (TLS), user authentication, security tokens and multi-level data encryption. This framework aims to prevent authorized access to cloud resources and data leakage, ensuring the confidentiality of sensitive information. This framework can be used by cloud service providers to strengthen the security of their cloud and instil confidence in their users.

Keywords: Cloud computing, Cloud security, Cloud security issues, Cloud security framework

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Authors: Laura Rodrigues Carmona, Maria José Chambel, Vânia Sofia Carvalho

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Background: In peacekeeping operations, military personnel are often exposed to the same traumatic stress factors found during conventional war and may also be subject to the physical risks and psychological stressors associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Objectives: To discuss the prevalence of PTSD among peacekeepers as well as the risks of and protective factors against this disorder and its comorbidities and/or consequences. Methods: A systematic literature search was performed with relevant keywords, and 53 articles were identified for this review. Results and conclusions: Military personnel deployed in peacekeeping operations have a higher prevalence of PTSD than nonmilitary personnel, a prevalence similar to that of military personnel deployed in war situations. Concerning the salient risk factors, the contextual factors are highlighted, and in regard to the protective factors, the individual factors are highlighted. This study thus demonstrates that there are factors in which the role of the military is essential, via both its selection and monitoring of peacekeepers during and after their deployment, to protect deployed personnel’s mental health.

Keywords: peacekeepers, peacekeeping, military, PTSD, post-traumatic stress disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder

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Authors: Wan Noorul Hafilah Binti Wan Ariffin

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Dam safety management is the crucial infrastructure as dam failure has a catastrophic effect on the community. Dam safety management is the effective framework of key actions and activities for the dam owner to manage the safety of the dam for its entire life cycle. However, maintaining dam safety is a challenging task as there are changes in current dam states. These changes introduce new risks to the dam's safety, which had not been considered when the dam was designed. A new framework has to be developed to adapt to the changes in the dam risk and make the dams resilient. This study proposes a risk-based decision-making adaptation framework for dam safety management. The research focuses on climate change's impact on hydrological situations as it causes floods and damages the dam structure. The risk analysis framework is adopted to improve the dam management strategies. The proposed study encompasses four phases. To start with, measuring the effect by assessing the impact of climate change on embankment dam, the second phase is to analyze the potential embankment dam failures. The third is analyzing the different components of risks related to the dam and, finally, developing a robust decision-making framework.

Keywords: climate change, embankment dam, failure, risk-informed decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Ali Hamza, Bertug Akintug

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Having an appropriate plan of sanitation systems is one of the critical issues for global urban slums. Poor sanitation systems in urban slums outcomes an enhanced vulnerability of severe diseases, low hygiene and environmental risks within our environment. Mentioning human excreta being one of the most highly risked pollutants among all the other major contributors of sanitation pollutants is increasing public health risks and amounts of pollution loads within the slum environment. Higher population growth, urge of urbanization and illegal status of urban slums makes it impossible to increase the level of performance of sanitation systems in urban slums. According to Sustainable Sanitation Alliance, design parameters for sanitation systems were set up to ensure sustainable environment. This paper reviews the characteristics of human excreta at present, treatment technologies, and procedures of processes that can be adopted feasibly in the urban slums. Keeping these factors as our significant concern of study, assessment of sustainable sanitation systems is done using sanitation chain concept in accordance to the pre-determined sustainability indicators and criteria which reflect the potential and feasible application of waterless sanitation systems bringing sustainable sanitation systems in urban slums.

Keywords: human excreta, sanitation chain, sustainable sanitation systems, urban slums

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Authors: Manzurul Alam, John Griffiths, David Holloway, Megan Paull, Anne Clear

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Background: This paper investigates the nature of risk management practices in non-profit organizations. It is argued here that the risk exposure of these organizations has increased as a result of their entrepreneurial activities. This study explores how a particular non-profit organization formulates its risk strategies in the face funding restrictions. Design/Method/Approach: The study adopts a case study approach to report the results on how a non-profit organization diversifies its activities, tackles risks arising from such activities and improves performance. Results: The findings show that the organization made structural adjustments and leadership changes which helped to adjust their risk strategies. It also reports the organizational processes to deal with risks arising from both related and unrelated diversification strategies. Implications: Any generalization from this case example needs to be taken with caution as there are significant differences between non-profit organizations operating in different sectors. Originality: The paper makes a significant contribution to the non-profit literature by highlighting the diversification strategies along with risk performance.

Keywords: risk management, performance management, non-profit organizations, financial management

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Authors: Mary Allagoa, Abir Al-Tabbaa

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The study explores the use of binders and additives, such as Portland cement, pulverized fuel ash, ground granulated blast furnace slag, and MgO, to decrease the concentration and leachability of pollutants in contaminated site soils. The research investigates their effectiveness and associated risks of using the binders, with a focus on Total Heavy metals (THM) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon (TPH). The goal of this research is to evaluate the performance and effectiveness of binders and additives in remediating soil pollutants. The study aims to assess the suitability of the mixtures for ground improvement purposes, determine the optimal dosage, and investigate the associated risks. The research utilizes physical (unconfined compressive strength) and chemical tests (batch leachability test) to assess the efficacy of the binders and additives. A completely randomized design one-way ANOVA is used to determine the significance within mix binders of THM. The study also employs incremental lifetime cancer risk assessments (ILCR) and other indexes to evaluate the associated risks. The study finds that Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBS): MgO is the most effective binder for remediation, particularly when using low dosages of MgO combined with higher dosages of GGBS binders on TPH. The results indicate that binders and additives can encapsulate and immobilize pollutants, thereby reducing their leachability and toxicity. The mean unconfined compressive strength of the soil ranges from 285.0- 320.5 kPa, while THM levels are less than 10 µg/l in GGBS: MgO and CEM: PFA but below 1 µg/l in CEM I based. The ILCR ranged from 6.77E-02 - 2.65E-01 and 5.444E-01 – 3.20 E+00, with the highest values observed under extreme conditions. The hazard index (HI), Risk allowable daily dose intake (ADI), and Risk chronic daily intake (CDI) were all less than 1 for the THM. The study identifies MgO as the best additive for use in soil remediation.

Keywords: risk ADI, risk CDI, ILCR, novel binders, additives binders, hazard index

Procedia PDF Downloads 714

Authors: Bahadir Aydin

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It is difficult to access accurate knowledge because of mass data. This huge data make environment more and more caotic. Data are main piller of intelligence. The affiliation between intelligence and knowledge is quite significant to understand underlying truths. The data gathered from different sources can be modified, interpreted and classified by using intelligence cycle process. This process is applied in order to progress to wisdom as well as intelligence. Within this process the effect of tacit knowledge is crucial. Knowledge which is classified as explicit and tacit knowledge is the key element for any purpose. Tacit knowledge can be seen as "the tip of the iceberg”. This tacit knowledge accounts for much more than we guess in all intelligence cycle. If the concept of intelligence cycle is scrutinized, it can be seen that it contains risks, threats as well as success. The main purpose of all organizations is to be successful by eliminating risks and threats. Therefore, there is a need to connect or fuse existing information and the processes which can be used to develop it. Thanks to this process the decision-makers can be presented with a clear holistic understanding, as early as possible in the decision making process. Altering from the current traditional reactive approach to a proactive intelligence cycle approach would reduce extensive duplication of work in the organization. Applying new result-oriented cycle and tacit knowledge intelligence can be procured and utilized more effectively and timely.

Keywords: information, intelligence cycle, knowledge, tacit Knowledge

Procedia PDF Downloads 483

Authors: Nicolaas Unland, John Webb

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The acidification and mobilisation of metals during the oxidation of acid sulfate soils exposed during lake bed drying is an increasingly common phenomenon under climate scenarios with reduced rainfall. In order to assess the risk of generating high concentrations of acidity and dissolved metals, chromium suite analysis are fundamental, but sometimes limited in characterising the potential risks they pose. This study combines such fundamental test work, along with incubation tests and 1D modelling to investigate the risks associated with the drying of Third Reedy Lake in South East Australia. Core samples were collected from a variable depth of 0.5 m below the lake bed, at 19 locations across the lake’s footprint, using a boat platform. Samples were subjected to a chromium suite of analysis, including titratable actual acidity, chromium reducible sulfur and acid neutralising capacity. Concentrations of reduced sulfur up to 0.08 %S and net acidities up to 0.15 %S indicate that acid sulfate soils have formed on the lake bed during permanent inundation over the last century. A further sub-set of samples were prepared in 7 columns and subject to accelerated heating, drying and wetting over a period of 64 days in laboratory. Results from the incubation trial indicate that while pyrite oxidation proceeded, minimal change to soil pH or the acidity of leachate occurred, suggesting that the internal buffering capacity of lake bed sediments was sufficient to neutralise a large proportion of the acidity produced. A 1D mass balance model was developed to assess potential changes in lake water quality during drying based on the results of chromium suite and incubation tests. Results from the above test work and modelling suggest that acid sulfate soils pose a moderate to low risk to the Third Reedy Lake system. Further, the risks can be effectively managed during the initial stages of lake drying via flushing with available mildly alkaline water. The study finds that while test work such as chromium suite analysis are fundamental in characterizing acid sulfate soil environments, they can the overestimate risks associated with the soils. Subsequent incubation test work may more accurately characterise such soils and lead to better-informed management strategies.

Keywords: acid sulfate soil, incubation, management, model, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Nora Kuiper, Candace Rowell, Hugues Preud'Homme, Basem Shomar

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As the global dependence on seawater desalination as a primary drinking water resource increases, a unique class of secondary pollutants is emerging. The presence of bromide salts in seawater may result in increased levels of bromine and brominated byproducts in drinking water. The State of Qatar offers a unique setting to study these pollutants and their impacts on consumers as the country is 100% dependent on seawater desalination to supply municipal tap water and locally produced bottled water. Tap water (n=115) and bottled water (n=62) samples were collected throughout the State of Qatar and analyzed for a suite of inorganic and organic compounds, including 54 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), with an emphasis on brominated byproducts. All VOC identification and quantification was completed using a Bruker Scion GCMSMS with static headspace technologies. A risk survey tool was used to collect information regarding local consumption habits, health outcomes and perception of water sources for adults and children. This study is the first of its kind in the country. Dibromomethane, bromoform, and bromobenzene were detected in 61%, 88% and 2%, of the drinking water samples analyzed. The levels of dibromomethane ranged from approximately 100-500 ng/L and the concentrations of bromoform ranged from approximately 5-50 µg/L. Additionally, bromobenzene concentrations were 60 ng/L. The presence of brominated compounds in drinking water is a public health concern specific to populations using seawater as a feed water source and may pose unique risks that have not been previously studied. Risk assessments are ongoing to quantify the risks associated with prolonged consumption of disinfection byproducts; specifically the risks of brominated trihalomethanes as the levels of bromoform found in Qatar’s drinking water reach more than 60% of the US EPA’s Maximum Contaminant Level of all THMs.

Keywords: brominated byproducts, desalination, trihalomethanes, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Moise A.E., State G., Tudorache M., Custură I., Enea D.N., Osman (Defta) A., Drăgotoiu D.

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This scientific paper explores risk management strategies in the food supply chain, with a focus on chicken raw materials, in the context of a company sourcing from the EU and non-EU. The aim of the paper is to adapt the requirements of international standards (IFS, BRC, QS, ITW, FSSC, ISO), proposing efficient methods to identify and remediate non-conformities and corrective and preventive actions. Defining the supply flow and acceptance steps promotes collaboration with suppliers to ensure the quality and safety of raw materials. To assess the risks of suppliers and raw materials, objective criteria are developed and vulnerabilities in the supply chain are analyzed, including the risk of fraud. Active monitoring of international alerts through RASFF helps to identify emerging risks quickly, and regular analysis of international trends and company performance enables continuous adaptation of risk management strategies. Implementing these measures strengthens food safety and consumer confidence in the final products supplied.

Keywords: food supply chain, international standards, quality and safety of raw materials, RASFF

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Authors: Katharina Fellnhofer

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The more information and knowledge that technology provides, the more important are profoundly human skills like intuition, the skill of using nonconscious information. As our world becomes more complex, shaken by crises, and characterized by uncertainty, time pressure, ambiguity, and rapidly changing conditions, intuition is increasingly recognized as a key human asset. However, due to methodological limitations of sample size or time frame or a lack of real-world or cross-cultural scope, precisely how to measure intuition when facing risks on a nonconscious level remains unclear. In light of the measurement challenge related to intuition’s nonconscious nature, a technique is introduced to measure intuition via hidden images as nonconscious additional information to trigger intuition. This technique has been tested in a within-subject fully online design with 62,721 real-world investment decisions made by 657 subjects in Europe and the United States. Bayesian models highlight the technique’s potential to measure skill at using nonconscious information for conscious decision making. Over the long term, solving the mysteries of intuition and mastering its use could be of immense value in personal and organizational decision-making contexts.

Keywords: cognition, intuition, investment decisions, methodology

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Authors: Fatou Cisse

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Depression is one of the most serious health problems experienced by immigrants and refugees, who are likely to undergo heightened political, economic, social, and environmental stressors as they transition to a new culture. The purpose of this literature review is to identify and compare risks associated with depression among young adult immigrants and refugees aged 18 to 25. Ten articles focused on risks associated with depression symptoms among this population were reviewed, revealing several common themes: Stress, identity, culture, language barriers, discrimination, social support, self-esteem, length of time in the receiving country, origins, or background. Existing research has failed to account adequately for sample size, language barriers, how the concept of "depression" differs across cultures, and stressors immigrants and refugees experience prior to the transition to the new culture. The study revealed that immigrants and refugees are at risk for depression and that the risk is greater in the refugee population due to their history of trauma. The Roy Adaptation Model was employed to understand the coping mechanisms that refugees and immigrants could use to reduce rates of depression. The psychiatric nurse practitioner must be prepared to intervene and educate this population on these coping mechanisms to help them overcome the feelings that lead to depression and facilitate a smooth integration into the new culture.

Keywords: immigration, refugees, depression, young adults

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Authors: Anastasios Manos, Despina Elisabeth Filippidou

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Introduction: Historical buildings are an inte-gral part of the cultural heritage of every place, and beyond the obvious need for protection against risks, they have specific requirements regarding the handling of hazards and disasters such as fire, floods, earthquakes, etc. Ensuring high levels of protection and safety for these buildings is impera-tive for two distinct but interconnected reasons: a) they themselves constitute cultural heritage, and b) they are often used as museums/cultural spaces, necessitating the protection of both human life (vis-itors and workers) and the cultural treasures they house. However, these buildings present serious constraints in implementing the necessary measures to protect them from destruction due to their unique architecture, construction methods, and/or the structural materials used in the past, which have created an existing condition that is sometimes challenging to reshape and operate within the framework of modern regulations and protection measures. One of the most devastating risks that threaten historical buildings is fire. Catastrophic fires demonstrate the need for timely evaluation of fire safety measures in historical buildings. Recog-nizing the criticality of protecting historical build-ings from the risk of fire, the Confederation of Fire Protection Associations in Europe (CFPA E) issued specific guidelines in 2013 (CFPA-E Guideline No 30:2013 F) for the fire protection of historical buildings at the European level. However, until now, few actions have been implemented towards leveraging modern technologies in the field of con-struction and maintenance of buildings, such as Building Information Modeling (BIM) and the Inter-net of Things (IoT), for the protection of historical buildings from risks like fires, floods, etc. The pro-ject BIM4Cult has bee developed in order to fill this gap. It is a tool for timely assessing and monitoring of the fire safety level of historical buildings using BIM and IoT technologies in an integrated manner. The tool serves as a decision support expert system for improving the fire safety of historical buildings by continuously monitoring, controlling and as-sessing critical risk factors for fire.

Keywords: Iot, fire, BIM, expert system

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Jiajia Peng, Jianqing Qiu, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Background: Insufficient sleep has been focused on as a public health epidemic. However, a comprehensive analysis of disease trajectory associated with unhealthy sleep habits is still unclear currently. Objective: This study sought to comprehensively clarify the disease's trajectory in relation to the overall poor sleep pattern and unhealthy sleep behaviors separately. Methods: 410,682 participants with available information on sleep behaviors were collected from the UK Biobank at the baseline visit (2006-2010). These participants were classified as having high- and low risk of each sleep behavior and were followed from 2006 to 2020 to identify the increased risks of diseases. We used Cox regression to estimate the associations of high-risk sleep behaviors with the elevated risks of diseases, and further established diseases trajectory using significant diseases. The low-risk unhealthy sleep behaviors were defined as the reference. Thereafter, we also examined the trajectory of diseases linked with the overall poor sleep pattern by combining all of these unhealthy sleep behaviors. To visualize the disease's trajectory, network analysis was used for presenting these trajectories. Results: During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we noted 12 medical conditions in relation to unhealthy sleep behaviors and the overall poor sleep pattern among 410,682 participants with a median age of 58.0 years. The majority of participants had unhealthy sleep behaviors; in particular, 75.62% with frequent sleeplessness, and 72.12% had abnormal sleep durations. Besides, a total of 16,032 individuals with an overall poor sleep pattern were identified. In general, three major disease clusters were associated with overall poor sleep status and unhealthy sleep behaviors according to the disease trajectory and network analysis, mainly in the digestive, musculoskeletal and connective tissue, and cardiometabolic systems. Of note, two circularity disease pairs (I25→I20 and I48→I50) showed the highest risks following these unhealthy sleep habits. Additionally, significant differences in disease trajectories were observed in relation to sex and sleep medication among individuals with poor sleep status. Conclusions: We identified the major disease clusters and high-risk diseases following participants with overall poor sleep health and unhealthy sleep behaviors, respectively. It may suggest the need to investigate the potential interventions targeting these key pathways.

Keywords: sleep, poor sleep, unhealthy sleep behaviors, disease trajectory, UK Biobank

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Authors: Sirapop Nuannimnoi, Hojjat Baghban, Ching-Yao Huang

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Over the past decade, with the fast development of blockchain technology since the birth of Bitcoin, there has been a massive increase in the usage of Cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are not seen as an investment opportunity due to the market’s erratic behavior and high price volatility. With the recent success of deep reinforcement learning (DRL), portfolio management can be modeled and automated. In this paper, we propose a novel DRL-based multi-agent system to automatically make proper trading decisions on multiple cryptocurrencies and gain profits in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. We also extend this multi-agent system with horizontal federated transfer learning for better adapting to the inclusion of new cryptocurrencies in our portfolio; therefore, we can, through the concept of diversification, maximize our profits and minimize the trading risks. Experimental results through multiple simulation scenarios reveal that this proposed algorithmic trading system can offer three promising key advantages over other systems, including maximized profits, minimized risks, and adaptability.

Keywords: cryptocurrency portfolio management, algorithmic trading, federated learning, multi-agent reinforcement learning

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Authors: Huayun Zhai, Quan Hu, Wei-Chih Chiang, Jianjun Du

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By applying experimental methodology in the framework of the behavior-perception theory, this paper studies the relationship between information quality of corporates’ social responsibility (CSR) and individual investors’ risk perception, intermediated with individual investors’ perception on CSR. The findings are as follows: In general, the information quality of CSR significantly influences individual investors’ perception on investment risks. Furthermore, certification on CSR can help reinforce such perceptions. The higher the reporting quality of CSR is, accompanied by the certification by an independent third party, the more likely individual investors recognize the responsibilities. The research also found that the perception on CSR not only plays a role of intermediation between information quality about CSR and investors’ perception on investment risk but also intermediates the certification of CSR reports and individual investors’ judgment on investment risks. The main contributions of the research are in two folds. The first is that it supplements the research on CSR from the perspective of investors’ perceptions. The second is that the research provides theoretical and experimental evidence for enterprises to implement and improve reports on their social responsibilities.

Keywords: information quality, corporate social responsibility, report certification, individual investors’ perception on risk, perception of corporate social responsibility

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Authors: Barry Aifesehi Aiworo, Henry Oriakhi

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This paper, examines the analysis of access pattern to school and travel risks among school children in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. The risk includes accident, molestation (sexually) and kidnapping. The objective of this paper are to examine the various means (modes) of transport to school; determine the type and incidences of risk experienced by school children in the study area; examine the risk incidences and ages of school children in the study area. Hypothesis which states that the types of risks encountered by school children are independent of means of transport was tested using the chi-square test (X2). A sampling ratio of twelve percent (12%) was taken from 396 schools in Benin City. By implication, 49 schools were randomly selected in Benin City for this research. A total of 42,053 students in the 49 schools constitute the sample frame for the research. Two percent (2%), 841 students were taken as the sample size. The use of stratified sampling method was applied by stratifying the study area (Benin City) into local governments- Egor, Ikpoba-Okha and Oredo. Thereafter, the lists of schools in the various local governments were obtained from the Ministry of Education before the schools for research were randomly chosen from each local government area. The analysis revealed that 6.7% of the total students interviewed have been involved in road accidents. 1.04% of the total respondents said at one time or the other that they have been kidnapped. Finally, the research found that travel is comparatively safe and believes this may be partly attributable to safer route to schools and school children being more familiar with the school journey. The research indicates that children aged between eleven and fifteen are most at risk of hit or knocked down on Benin City’s roads. These findings may help in planning and targeting road safety initiative (education, campaigns) in Benin City.

Keywords: accident, molestation (sexually), kidnapping, pedophile, pedestrian

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Devin Doos, Ashley Hughes, Trang Pham, Paul Barach, Rami Ahmed

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Over 115,000 Health Care Workers (HCWs) have died from COVID-19, and millions have been infected while caring for patients. HCWs have filed thousands of safety complaints surrounding safety concerns due to Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) shortages, which included concerns around inadequate and PPE reuse. Protocols for donning and doffing PPE remain ambiguous, lacking an evidence-base, and often result in wide deviations in practice. PPE donning and doffing protocol deviations commonly result in self-contamination but have not been thoroughly addressed. No evidence-driven protocols provide guidance on protecting HCW during periods of PPE reuse. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine safety-related threats and risks to Health Care Workers (HCWs) due to the reuse of PPE among Emergency Department personnel. Method: We conducted a prospective observational study to examine the risks of reusing PPE. First, ED personnel were asked to don and doff PPE in a simulation lab. Each participant was asked to don and doff PPE five times, according to the maximum reuse recommendation set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Each participant was videorecorded; video recordings were reviewed and coded independently by at least 2 of the 3trained coders for safety behaviors and riskiness of actions. A third coder was brought in when the agreement between the 2 coders could not be reached. Agreement between coders was high (81.9%), and all disagreements (100%) were resolved via consensus. A bowtie risk assessment chart was constructed analyzing the factors that contribute to increased risks HCW are faced with due to PPE use and reuse. Agreement amongst content experts in the field of Emergency Medicine, Human Factors, and Anesthesiology was used to select aspects of health care that both contribute and mitigate risks associated with PPE reuse. Findings: Twenty-eight clinician participants completed five rounds of donning/doffing PPE, yielding 140 PPE donning/doffing sequences. Two emerging threats were associated with behaviors in donning, doffing, and re-using PPE: (i) direct exposure to contaminant, and (ii) transmission/spread of contaminant. Protective behaviors included: hand hygiene, not touching the patient-facing surface of PPE, and ensuring a proper fit and closure of all PPE materials. 100% of participants (n= 28) deviated from the CDC recommended order, and most participants (92.85%, n=26) self-contaminated at least once during reuse. Other frequent errors included failure to tie all ties on the PPE (92.85%, n=26) and failure to wash hands after a contamination event occurred (39.28%, n=11). Conclusions: There is wide variation and regular errors in how HCW don and doffPPE while including in reusing PPE that led to self-contamination. Some errors were deemed “recoverable”, such as hand washing after touching a patient-facing surface to remove the contaminant. Other errors, such as using a contaminated mask and accidentally spreading to the neck and face, can lead to compound risks that are unique to repeated PPE use. A more comprehensive understanding of the contributing threats to HCW safety and complete approach to mitigating underlying risks, including visualizing with risk management toolsmay, aid future PPE designand workflow and space solutions.

Keywords: bowtie analysis, health care, PPE reuse, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Hammadi Larbi

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The treatment of wastewater in sewage plants usually results in the formation of a large amount of sludge. These appear at the outlet of the treatment plant as a viscous fluid loaded with a high concentration of dry matter. This sludge production presents environmental, ecological, and economic risks. That is why it is necessary to find many solutions for minimizing these risks. In the present article, the effect of hydrogen peroxide, thermal treatment, and quicklime on the characteristics of the activated sludge produced in urban wastewater plant were evaluated in order to avoid any risk in the plants. The study shows increasing of the dose of H2O2 from 0 to 0.4 g causes an increase in the solubilization rate of COD from 12% to 45% and a reduction in the organic matter content of sludge (VM/SM) from 74% to 36% . The results also show that the optimum efficiency of the heat treatment corresponds to a temperature of 80 ° C for a treatment time of 40 min is 47% and 51.82% for a temperature equal to 100 ° C and 76.30 % for a temperature of 120 ° C, and 79.38% for a temperature of 140 ° C. The treatment of sludge by quicklime gives the optimum efficiency of 70.62 %. It was shown the increasing of the temperature from 80°C to 140°C, the pH of sludge was increased from 7.12 to 9.59. The obtained results showed that with increasing the dose of quicklime from 0 g/l to 1g/l in activated sludge led to an increase of their pH from 7.12 to 12.06. The study shows the increasing the dose of quicklime from 0 g/l to 1g/l causes also an increase in the solubilization of COD from 0% to 70.62 %

Keywords: activated sludge, hydrogen peroxide, thermal treatment, quicklime

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Authors: Henry Pariaman, Iwa Garniwa, Isti Surjandari, Bambang Sugiarto

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Availability of a complex system of thermal power plant is strongly influenced by the reliability of spare parts and maintenance management policies. A reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) technique is an established method of analysis and is the main reference for maintenance planning. This method considers the consequences of failure in its implementation, but does not deal with further risk of down time that associated with failures, loss of production or high maintenance costs. Risk-based maintenance (RBM) technique provides support strategies to minimize the risks posed by the failure to obtain maintenance task considering cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, condition-based maintenance (CBM) focuses on monitoring the application of the conditions that allow the planning and scheduling of maintenance or other action should be taken to avoid the risk of failure prior to the time-based maintenance. Implementation of RCM, RBM, CBM alone or combined RCM and RBM or RCM and CBM is a maintenance technique used in thermal power plants. Implementation of these three techniques in an integrated maintenance will increase the availability of thermal power plants compared to the use of maintenance techniques individually or in combination of two techniques. This study uses the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance in an integrated manner to increase the availability of thermal power plants. The method generates MPI (Priority Maintenance Index) is RPN (Risk Priority Number) are multiplied by RI (Risk Index) and FDT (Failure Defense Task) which can generate the task of monitoring and assessment of conditions other than maintenance tasks. Both MPI and FDT obtained from development of functional tree, failure mode effects analysis, fault-tree analysis, and risk analysis (risk assessment and risk evaluation) were then used to develop and implement a plan and schedule maintenance, monitoring and assessment of the condition and ultimately perform availability analysis. The results of this study indicate that the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance methods, in an integrated manner can increase the availability of thermal power plants.

Keywords: integrated maintenance techniques, availability, thermal power plant, MPI, FDT

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Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

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It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: cross ABC method, customs supply chain, risk, risk management

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Authors: Riyadh Alsultani, Ali Majdi

Abstract:

It is necessary to develop a design methodology that includes the possibility of seismic events occurring in a region, the vulnerability of the civil hydraulic structure, and the effects of the occurrence hazard on society, environment, and economy in order to evaluate the flood and earthquake risks of coastal bridge networks. This paper presents a design approach for the assessment of the risk and sustainability of coastal bridge networks under time-variant flood-earthquake conditions. The social, environmental, and economic indicators of the network are used to measure its sustainability. These consist of anticipated loss, downtime, energy waste, and carbon dioxide emissions. The design process takes into account the possibility of happening in a set of flood and earthquake scenarios that represent the local seismic activity. Based on the performance of each bridge as determined by fragility assessments, network linkages are measured. The network's connections and bridges' damage statuses after an earthquake scenario determine the network's sustainability and danger. The sustainability measures' temporal volatility and the danger of structural degradation are both highlighted. The method is shown using a transportation network in Baghdad, Iraq.

Keywords: sustainability, Coastal bridge networks, flood-earthquake risk, structural design

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Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi

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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.

Keywords: earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

Abstract:

The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Sabina Chytilová, Josef Navrátil

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Emergency management is a discipline of dealing with and avoiding risks. Appropriate emergency management software allows better management of these risks and has a direct influence on reducing potential negative impacts. Although there are several emergency management software products in the Czech Republic, they cover user requirements from the emergency management field only partially. Therefore, the paper focuses on the issues of requirement analysis within development of emergency management software. Analysis of the current state describes the basic features and properties of user requirements for software development as well as basic methods and approaches for gathering these requirements. Then, the paper presents more specific mechanisms for requirement analysis based on chosen software development approach: structured, object-oriented or agile. Based on these experiences it is designed new methodology for requirement analysis. Methodology describes how to map user requirements comprehensively in the field of emergency management and thus reduce misunderstanding between software analyst and emergency manager. Proposed methodology was consulted with department of fire brigade and also has been applied in the requirements analysis for their current emergency management software. The proposed methodology has general character and can be used also in other specific areas during requirement analysis.

Keywords: emergency software, methodology, requirement analysis, stakeholders, use case diagram, user stories

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Authors: Batool Ismaeel, Umair Farooq, Saad Mushtaq

Abstract:

Construction projects in the oil industry can be very complex, having unknown outcomes and uncertainties that cannot be easily predicted. Each project has its unique risks generated by a number of factors which, if not controlled, will impact the successful completion of the project mainly in terms of schedule, cost, quality, and safety. This paper highlights the historic risks associated with projects in the south and east region of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) collated from the company’s lessons learned database. Starting from Contract Award through to handover of the project to the Asset owner, the gaps in project execution in terms of managing risk will be brought to discussion and where a well-defined systematic approach in project risk management reflecting many claims, change of scope, exceeding budget, delays in engineering phase as well as in the procurement and fabrication of long lead items should be adopted. This study focuses on a proposed feasible approach in risk management for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) level projects including the various stakeholders involved in executing the works from International to local contractors and vendors in KOC. The proposed approach covers the areas categorized into organizational, design, procurement, construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning and project management in which the risks are identified and require management and mitigation. With the effective deployment and implementation of the proposed risk management system and the consideration of it as a vital key in achieving the project’s target, the outcomes will be more predictable in the future, and the risk triggers will be managed and controlled. The correct resources can be allocated on a timely basis for the company for avoiding any unpredictable outcomes during the execution of the project. It is recommended in this paper to apply this risk management approach as an integral part of project management and investigate further in the future, the effectiveness of this proposed system for newly awarded projects and compare the same with those projects of similar budget/complexity that have not applied this approach to risk management.

Keywords: construction, project completion, risk management, uncertainties

Procedia PDF Downloads 125