Search results for: regression modeling of extremes

Authors: Honggang Qu, Yong Xu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao, Bin Wang

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Today's mining industry is advancing gradually toward digital and visual direction. The three-dimensional visualization geological modeling of mine is the digital characterization of mineral deposits and is one of the key technology of digital mining. Three-dimensional geological modeling is a technology that combines geological spatial information management, geological interpretation, geological spatial analysis and prediction, geostatistical analysis, entity content analysis and graphic visualization in a three-dimensional environment with computer technology and is used in geological analysis. In this paper, the three-dimensional geological modeling of an iron mine through the use of Surpac is constructed, and the weight difference of the estimation methods between the distance power inverse ratio method and ordinary kriging is studied, and the ore body volume and reserves are simulated and calculated by using these two methods. Compared with the actual mine reserves, its result is relatively accurate, so it provides scientific bases for mine resource assessment, reserve calculation, mining design and so on.

Keywords: three-dimensional geological modeling, geological database, geostatistics, block model

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Authors: Ahmed Ferhati, Arezki Adjrad, Ratiba Mitiche-Kettab, Hakim Djafer Khodja

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The porous media are omnipresent around us that they are natural as sand, clay, rocks, or manufactured like concretes, cement, and ceramics. The variety of porous environment indicates a wide material range which can be very different from each other. Their common point is to be made up of a solid matrix and a porous space. In our case of study, we made the modeling of the flows in porous environments through the massives as in the case of an earth dam. The computer code used (PLAXIS) offer the possibility of modeling of various structures, in particular, the works in lands because that it deals with the pore water pressure due to the underground flow and the calculation of the plastic deformations. To confirm results obtained by PLAXIS, GeoStudio SEEP/W code was used. This work treats modeling of flows and mechanical and hydraulic behavior of earth dam. A general framework which can fit the calculation of this kind of structures and the coupling of the soil consolidation and free surface flows was defined. In this study; we have confronted a real case modeling of an earth dam. It was shown, in particular, that it is possible to entirely lead the calculation of real dam and to get encouraging results from the hydraulic and mechanical point of view.

Keywords: analyzes, dam, flow, modeling, PLAXIS, seep/w, slope

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Authors: Yakubu Suleiman, S. A. Musa

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Nigeria is the largest cowpea producer in the world, accounting for about 45%, followed by Brazil with about 17%. Cowpea is grown in Kano, Bauchi, Katsina, Borno in the north, Oyo in the west, and to the lesser extent in Enugu in the east. This study was conducted to determine the input–output relationship of Cowpea production in Kano, Katsina, and Jigawa states of Nigeria. The data were collected with the aid of 1000 structured questionnaires that were randomly distributed to Cowpea farmers in the three states mentioned above of the study area. The data collected were analyzed using regression analysis (Cobb–Douglass production function model). The result of the regression analysis revealed the coefficient of multiple determinations, R2, to be 72.5% and the F ration to be 106.20 and was found to be significant (P < 0.01). The regression coefficient of constant is 0.5382 and is significant (P < 0.01). The regression coefficient with respect to labor and seeds were 0.65554 and 0.4336, respectively, and they are highly significant (P < 0.01). The regression coefficient with respect to fertilizer is 0.26341 which is significant (P < 0.05). This implies that a unit increase of any one of the variable inputs used while holding all other variables inputs constants, will significantly increase the total Cowpea output by their corresponding coefficient. This indicated that farmers in the study area are operating in stage II of the production function. The result revealed that Cowpea farmer in Kano, Jigawa and Katsina States realized a profit of N15,997, N34,016 and N19,788 per hectare respectively. It is hereby recommended that more attention should be given to Cowpea production by government and research institutions.

Keywords: coefficient, constant, inputs, regression

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Authors: Kiurski S. Jelena, Aksentijević M. Snežana, Oros B. Ivana, Kecić S. Vesna, Djogo Z. Maja

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The paper investigates the effect of light intensity on the formation of two ketones, acetone and methyl ethyl ketone, in working premises of five pad printing departments in Novi Sad, Serbia. Multiple linear regression analysis examined the form of interdependency concentrations of methyl ethyl ketone, acetone and light intensity in five printing presses at seven sampling points, using Statistica software package version 10th. The results show an average stacking variation investigated variable and can be presented by the general regression model: y = b0 + b1xi1 + b2xi2.

Keywords: acetone, methyl ethyl ketone, multiple linear regression analysis, pad printing

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Authors: Sajjad Baghernezhad

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Meta-heuristic and hybrid algorithms have high adeer in modeling medical problems. In this study, a neural network was used to predict covid-19 among high-risk and low-risk patients. This study was conducted to collect the applied method and its target population consisting of 550 high-risk and low-risk patients from the Kerman University of medical sciences medical center to predict the coronavirus. In this study, the memetic algorithm, which is a combination of a genetic algorithm and a local search algorithm, has been used to update the weights of the neural network and develop the accuracy of the neural network. The initial study showed that the accuracy of the neural network was 88%. After updating the weights, the memetic algorithm increased by 93%. For the proposed model, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity value, value/accuracy to 97.4, 92.3, 95.8, 96.2, and 0.918, respectively; for the genetic algorithm model, 87.05, 9.20 7, 89.45, 97.30 and 0.967 and for logistic regression model were 87.40, 95.20, 93.79, 0.87 and 0.916. Based on the findings of this study, neural network models have a lower error rate in the diagnosis of patients based on individual variables and vital signs compared to the regression model. The findings of this study can help planners and health care providers in signing programs and early diagnosis of COVID-19 or Corona.

Keywords: COVID-19, decision support technique, neural network, genetic algorithm, memetic algorithm

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Authors: Praveena Sridhar, Nihar Devathi, Parikshit Chakraborty

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As the software product changes versions across releases, there are changes to the API’s and features and the upgrades become necessary. Hence, it becomes imperative to get the impact of upgrading the dependent components. This tool finds out API changes across two versions and their impact on other API’s followed by execution of the automated regression suites relevant to updates and their impacted areas. This tool has 4 layer architecture, each layer with its own unique pre-assigned capability which it does and sends the required information to next layer. This are the 4 layers. 1) Comparator: Compares the two versions of API. 2) Analyzer: Analyses the API doc and gives the modified class and its dependencies along with implemented interface details. 3) Impact Filter: Find the impact of the modified class on the other API methods. 4) Auto Executer: Based on the output given by Impact Filter, Executor will run the API regression Suite. Tool reads the java doc and extracts the required information of classes, interfaces and enumerations. The extracted information is saved into a data structure which shows the class details and its dependencies along with interfaces and enumerations that are listed in the java doc.

Keywords: automation impact regression, java doc, executor, analyzer, layers

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Authors: J. Satya Eswari, Ch. Venkateswarlu

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The formulation of a commercial pharmaceutical product involves several composition factors and response characteristics. When the formulation requires to satisfy multiple response characteristics which are conflicting, an optimal solution requires the need for an efficient multiobjective optimization technique. In this work, a regression is combined with a non-dominated sorting differential evolution (NSDE) involving Naïve & Slow and ε constraint techniques to derive different multiobjective optimization strategies, which are then evaluated by means of a trapidil pharmaceutical formulation. The analysis of the results show the effectiveness of the strategy that combines the regression model and NSDE with the integration of both Naïve & Slow and ε constraint techniques for Pareto optimization of trapidil formulation. With this strategy, the optimal formulation at pH=6.8 is obtained with the decision variables of micro crystalline cellulose, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose and compression pressure. The corresponding response characteristics of rate constant and release order are also noted down. The comparison of these results with the experimental data and with those of other multiple regression model based multiobjective evolutionary optimization strategies signify the better performance for optimal trapidil formulation.

Keywords: pharmaceutical formulation, multiple regression model, response surface method, radial basis function network, differential evolution, multiobjective optimization

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Authors: Ozgul Kartal, Wade Tillett, Lyn D. English

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Despite its global significance in curricula, mathematical modeling encounters persistent disparities in recognition and emphasis within regular mathematics classrooms and teacher education across countries with diverse educational and cultural traditions, including variations in the perceived role of mathematical modeling. Over the past two decades, increased attention has been given to the integration of mathematical modeling into national curriculum standards in the U.S. and other countries. Therefore, the mathematics education research community has dedicated significant efforts to investigate various aspects associated with the teaching and learning of mathematical modeling, primarily focusing on exploring the applicability of modeling in schools and assessing students', teachers', and preservice teachers' (PTs) competencies and engagement in modeling cycles and processes. However, limited attention has been directed toward examining potential resistance hindering teachers and PTs from effectively implementing mathematical modeling. This study focuses on how PTs, without prior modeling experience, resist and/or embrace mathematical modeling and its pedagogy as they learn about models and modeling perspectives, navigate the modeling process, design and implement their modeling activities and lesson plans, and experience the pedagogy enabling modeling. Model eliciting activities (MEAs) were employed due to their high potential to support the development of mathematical modeling pedagogy. The mathematical modeling module was integrated into a mathematics methods course to explore how PTs embraced or resisted mathematical modeling and its pedagogy. The module design included reading, reflecting, engaging in modeling, assessing models, creating a modeling task (MEA), and designing a modeling lesson employing an MEA. Twelve senior undergraduate students participated, and data collection involved video recordings, written prompts, lesson plans, and reflections. An open coding analysis revealed acceptance and resistance toward teaching mathematical modeling. The study identified four overarching themes, including both acceptance and resistance: pedagogy, affordance of modeling (tasks), modeling actions, and adjusting modeling. In the category of pedagogy, PTs displayed acceptance based on potential pedagogical benefits and resistance due to various concerns. The affordance of modeling (tasks) category emerged from instances when PTs showed acceptance or resistance while discussing the nature and quality of modeling tasks, often debating whether modeling is considered mathematics. PTs demonstrated both acceptance and resistance in their modeling actions, engaging in modeling cycles as students and designing/implementing MEAs as teachers. The adjusting modeling category captured instances where PTs accepted or resisted maintaining the qualities and nature of the modeling experience or converted modeling into a typical structured mathematics experience for students. While PTs displayed a mix of acceptance and resistance in their modeling actions, limitations were observed in embracing complexity and adhering to model principles. The study provides valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities of integrating mathematical modeling into teacher education, emphasizing the importance of addressing pedagogical concerns and providing support for effective implementation. In conclusion, this research offers a comprehensive understanding of PTs' engagement with modeling, advocating for a more focused discussion on the distinct nature and significance of mathematical modeling in the broader curriculum to establish a foundation for effective teacher education programs.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, model eliciting activities, modeling pedagogy, secondary teacher education

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Authors: Hajar Hajmohammadi, Paul Pfeffer, Anna De Simoni, Jim Cole, Chris Griffiths, Sally Hull, Benjamin Heydecker

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Background: There is strong interest in the relationship between short-term air pollution exposure and human health. Most studies in this field focus on serious health effects such as death or hospital admission, but air pollution exposure affects many people with less severe impacts, such as exacerbations of respiratory conditions. A lack of quantitative analysis and inconsistent findings suggest improved methodology is needed to understand these effectsmore fully. Method: We developed a time series regression model to quantify the relationship between daily NOₓ concentration and Asthma exacerbations requiring oral steroids from primary care settings. Explanatory variables include daily NOₓ concentration measurements extracted from 8 available background and roadside monitoring stations in east London and daily ambient temperature extracted for London City Airport, located in east London. Lags of NOx concentrations up to 21 days (3 weeks) were used in the model. The dependent variable was the daily number of oral steroid courses prescribed for GP registered patients with asthma in east London. A mixed distribution model was then fitted to the significant lags of the regression model. Result: Results of the time series modelling showed a significant relationship between NOₓconcentrations on each day and the number of oral steroid courses prescribed in the following three weeks. In addition, the model using only roadside stations performs better than the model with a mixture of roadside and background stations.

Keywords: air pollution, time series modeling, public health, road transport

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Authors: S. Deswal, M. Pal

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The paper aims to compare the performance of vertical and inclined multiple plunging jets and to model and predict their mass transfer capacity by multi-linear regression based approach. The multiple vertical plunging jets have jet impact angle of θ = 90O; whereas, multiple inclined plunging jets have jet impact angle of θ = 600. The results of the study suggests that mass transfer is higher for multiple jets, and inclined multiple plunging jets have up to 1.6 times higher mass transfer than vertical multiple plunging jets under similar conditions. The derived relationship, based on multi-linear regression approach, has successfully predicted the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (KLa) from operational parameters of multiple plunging jets with a correlation coefficient of 0.973, root mean square error of 0.002 and coefficient of determination of 0.946. The results suggests that predicted overall mass transfer coefficient is in good agreement with actual experimental values; thereby suggesting the utility of derived relationship based on multi-linear regression based approach and can be successfully employed in modelling mass transfer by multiple plunging jets.

Keywords: mass transfer, multiple plunging jets, multi-linear regression, earth sciences

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Authors: Vipul M. Patel, Hemantkumar B. Mehta

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Technological innovations in electronic world demand novel, compact, simple in design, less costly and effective heat transfer devices. Closed Loop Pulsating Heat Pipe (CLPHP) is a passive phase change heat transfer device and has potential to transfer heat quickly and efficiently from source to sink. Thermal performance of a CLPHP is governed by various parameters such as number of U-turns, orientations, input heat, working fluids and filling ratio. The present paper is an attempt to predict the thermal performance of a CLPHP using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Filling ratio and heat input are considered as input parameters while thermal resistance is set as target parameter. Types of neural networks considered in the present paper are radial basis, generalized regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation; feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent and Elman back propagation. Linear, logistic sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and Radial Basis Gaussian Function are used as transfer functions. Prediction accuracy is measured based on the experimental data reported by the researchers in open literature as a function of Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD). The prediction of a generalized regression ANN model with spread constant of 4.8 is found in agreement with the experimental data for MARD in the range of ±1.81%.

Keywords: ANN models, CLPHP, filling ratio, generalized regression, spread constant

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Authors: M. Bodner, M. Scampicchio

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Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy coupled with chemometrics was used to distinguish between butter samples and non-butter samples. Further, quantification of the content of margarine in adulterated butter samples was investigated. Fingerprinting region (1400-800 cm^–1) was used to develop unsupervised pattern recognition (Principal Component Analysis, PCA), supervised modeling (Soft Independent Modelling by Class Analogy, SIMCA), classification (Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, PLS-DA) and regression (Partial Least Squares Regression, PLS-R) models. PCA of the fingerprinting region shows a clustering of the two sample types. All samples were classified in their rightful class by SIMCA approach; however, nine adulterated samples (between 1% and 30% w/w of margarine) were classified as belonging both at the butter class and at the non-butter one. In the two-class PLS-DA model’s (R² = 0.73, RMSEP, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction = 0.26% w/w) sensitivity was 71.4% and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 100%. Its threshold was calculated at 7% w/w of margarine in adulterated butter samples. Finally, PLS-R model (R² = 0.84, RMSEP = 16.54%) was developed. PLS-DA was a suitable classification tool and PLS-R a proper quantification approach. Results demonstrate that FT-IR spectroscopy combined with PLS-R can be used as a rapid, simple and safe method to identify pure butter samples from adulterated ones and to determine the grade of adulteration of margarine in butter samples.

Keywords: adulterated butter, margarine, PCA, PLS-DA, PLS-R, SIMCA

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.

Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines

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Authors: Faezeh Mohammadi, Ebrahim Ebrahimi, Neda Azimi

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Use of ultrasound waves is one of the techniques for increasing the mixing and mass transfer in the microdevices. Ultrasound propagation into liquid medium leads to stimulation of the fluid, creates turbulence and so increases the mixing performance. In this study, CFD modeling of two-phase flow in a pitted micromixer equipped with a piezoelectric with frequency of 1.7 MHz has been studied. CFD modeling of micromixer at different velocity of fluid flow in the absence of ultrasound waves and with ultrasound application has been performed. The hydrodynamic of fluid flow and mixing efficiency for using ultrasound has been compared with the layout of no ultrasound application. The result of CFD modeling shows well agreements with the experimental results. The results showed that the flow pattern inside the micromixer in the absence of ultrasound waves is parallel, while when ultrasound has been applied, it is not parallel. In fact, propagation of ultrasound energy into the fluid flow in the studied micromixer changed the hydrodynamic and the forms of the flow pattern and caused to mixing enhancement. In general, from the CFD modeling results, it can be concluded that the applying ultrasound energy into the liquid medium causes an increase in the turbulences and mixing and consequently, improves the mass transfer rate within the micromixer.

Keywords: CFD modeling, ultrasound, mixing, mass transfer

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Assem I. El-Ansary

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This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach in developing an Multi-Agent Railway Control System (MARCS). The Event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are the Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology, and the development of an interactive software tool (DECISION), which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, multi-agent, railway control, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases

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Authors: Raluca Ana Maria Viziteu, Anna Prudnikova

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Industrial control systems (ICS) have received much attention in recent years due to the convergence of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) that has increased the interdependence of safety and security issues to be considered. These issues require ICS-tailored solutions. That led to the need to creation of a methodology for supporting ICS device manufacturers and system integrators in carrying out threat modeling of embedded ICS devices in a way that guarantees the quality of the identified threats and minimizes subjectivity in the threat identification process. To research, the possibility of creating such a methodology, a set of existing standards, regulations, papers, and publications related to threat modeling in the ICS sector and other sectors was reviewed to identify various existing methodologies and methods used in threat modeling. Furthermore, the most popular ones were tested in an exploratory phase on a specific PLC device. The outcome of this exploratory phase has been used as a basis for defining specific characteristics of ICS embedded devices and their deployment scenarios, identifying the factors that introduce subjectivity in the threat modeling process of such devices, and defining metrics for evaluating the minimum quality requirements of identified threats associated to the deployment of the devices in existing infrastructures. Furthermore, the threat modeling methodology was created based on the previous steps' results. The usability of the methodology was evaluated through a set of standardized threat modeling requirements and a standardized comparison method for threat modeling methodologies. The outcomes of these verification methods confirm that the methodology is effective. The full paper includes the outcome of research on different threat modeling methodologies that can be used in OT, their comparison, and the results of implementing each of them in practice on a PLC device. This research is further used to build a threat modeling methodology tailored to OT environments; a detailed description is included. Moreover, the paper includes results of the evaluation of created methodology based on a set of parameters specifically created to rate threat modeling methodologies.

Keywords: device manufacturers, embedded devices, industrial control systems, threat modeling

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Authors: Roham Rafiee, Behzad Mazhari

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Composite structures, having incredible properties, have gained considerable popularity in the last few decades. Among all types, polymer matrix composites are being used extensively due to their unique characteristics including low weight, convenient fabrication process and low cost. Having polymer as matrix, these type of composites show different creep behavior when compared to metals and even other types of composites since most polymers undergo creep even in room temperature. One of the most challenging topics in creep is to introduce new techniques for predicting long term creep behavior of materials. Depending on the material which is being studied the appropriate method would be different. Methods already proposed for predicting long term creep behavior of polymer matrix composites can be divided into five categories: (1) Analytical Modeling, (2) Empirical Modeling, (3) Superposition Based Modeling (Semi-empirical), (4) Rheological Modeling, (5) Finite Element Modeling. Each of these methods has individual characteristics. Studies have shown that none of the mentioned methods can predict long term creep behavior of all PMC composites in all circumstances (loading, temperature, etc.) but each of them has its own priority in different situations. The reason to this issue can be found in theoretical basis of these methods. In this study after a brief review over the background theory of each method, they are compared in terms of their applicability in predicting long-term behavior of composite structures. Finally, the explained materials are observed through some experimental studies executed by other researchers.

Keywords: creep, comparative study, modeling, composite materials

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Authors: Tahani Salman Alangari

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Student success can be impacted by internal factors such as their emotional well-being and external factors such as organizational support and instructional support in the classroom. This study is to identify at least one factor that forecasts student engagement. It is a cross-sectional, conducted on 6206 teachers and encompassed three years of data collection and observations of math instruction in approximately 50 schools and 300 classrooms. A multiple linear regression revealed that a model predicting student engagement from emotional support, classroom organization, and instructional support was significant. Four linear regression models were tested using hierarchical regression to examine the effects of independent variables: emotional support was the highest predictor of student engagement while instructional support was the lowest.

Keywords: student engagement, emotional support, organizational support, instructional support, well-being

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Authors: Hassan Barau Singhry

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Purpose: Leadership or the absence of it is an important behaviour affecting employees’ job satisfaction. Although, there are many models of leadership, one that stands out in a period of change is the transformational behaviour. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of an organizational justice on the relationship between transformational leadership and employee job satisfaction. The study is based on the assumption that change begins with leaders and leaders should be fair and just. Methodology: A cross-sectional survey through structured questionnaire was employed to collect the data of this study. The population is selected the three tiers of government such as the local, state, and federal governments in Nigeria. The sampling method used in this research is stratified random sampling. 418 middle managers of public organizations respondents to the questionnaire. Multiple regression aided by structural equation modeling was employed to test 4 hypothesized relationships. Finding: The regression results support for the mediating role of organizational justice such as distributive, procedural, interpersonal and informational justice in the link between transformational leadership and job satisfaction. Originality/value: This study adds to the literature of human resource management by empirically validating and integrating transformational leadership behaviour with the four dimensions of organizational justice theory. The study is expected to be beneficial to the top and middle-level administrators as well as theory building and testing.

Keywords: distributive justice, job satisfaction, organizational justice, procedural justice, transformational leadership

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Authors: Pawthawala Nancy Manish, Syed Alay Hashim

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A hybrid rocket is a rocket engine which uses propellants in two different states of matter- one is in solid and the other either gas or liquid. A hybrid rocket exhibit advantages over both liquid rockets and solid rockets especially in terms of simplicity, stop-start-restart capabilities, safety and cost. This paper deals the design and development of a hybrid rocket having paraffin wax as solid fuel and liquid oxygen as oxidizer. Due to variation of pressure in combustion chamber there is significantly change in mass flow rate, burning rate and uneven regression along the length of the grain. This project describes the working model of a hybrid propellant rocket motor. We have designed a hybrid rocket thrust chamber based on the predetermined combustion chamber pressure and the properties of hybrid propellant. This project is all ready in working condition with normal oxygen injector. Now we have planned to modify the injector design to improve the combustion property. We will use spray type injector for injecting the oxidizer. This idea will increase the performance followed by the regression rate of the solid fuel. By employing mass conservation law, oxygen mass flux, oxidizer/fuel ratio and regression rate the thrust coefficient can be obtained for our current design. CATIA V5 R20 is our design software for the complete setup. This project is fully based on experimental evaluation and the collection of combustion and flow parameters. The thrust chamber is made of stainless steel and the duration of test is around 15-20 seconds (Maximum). These experiments indicates that paraffin based fuel provides the opportunity to satisfy a broad range of mission requirements for the next generation of the hybrid rocket system.

Keywords: burning rate, liquid oxygen, mass flow rate, paraffin wax and sugar

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Authors: Madhusudan Purohit, Stephen Philip, Bharathkumar Inturi

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In this paper we report the quantitative structure activity relationship of novel bis-triazole derivatives for predicting the activity profile. The full model encompassed a dataset of 46 Bis- triazoles. Tripos Sybyl X 2.0 program was used to conduct CoMSIA QSAR modeling. The Partial Least-Squares (PLS) analysis method was used to conduct statistical analysis and to derive a QSAR model based on the field values of CoMSIA descriptor. The compounds were divided into test and training set. The compounds were evaluated by various CoMSIA parameters to predict the best QSAR model. An optimum numbers of components were first determined separately by cross-validation regression for CoMSIA model, which were then applied in the final analysis. A series of parameters were used for the study and the best fit model was obtained using donor, partition coefficient and steric parameters. The CoMSIA models demonstrated good statistical results with regression coefficient (r2) and the cross-validated coefficient (q2) of 0.575 and 0.830 respectively. The standard error for the predicted model was 0.16322. In the CoMSIA model, the steric descriptors make a marginally larger contribution than the electrostatic descriptors. The finding that the steric descriptor is the largest contributor for the CoMSIA QSAR models is consistent with the observation that more than half of the binding site area is occupied by steric regions.

Keywords: 3D QSAR, CoMSIA, triazoles, novel heterocycles

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Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu

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In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised functional principal component analysis method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.

Keywords: supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression

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Authors: Redvan Ghasemlounia, Elham Ansari, Hikmet Kerem Cigizoglu

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Hydrological modeling in arid and semi-arid regions is very important. Iran has many regions with these climate conditions such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province that needs lots of attention with an appropriate management. Forecasting of hydrological parameters and estimation of hydrological events of catchments, provide important information that used for design, management and operation of water resources such as river systems, and dams, widely. Discharge in rivers is one of these parameters. This study presents the application and comparison of some estimation methods such as Feed-Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) to predict the daily flow discharge of the Soolegan River, located at Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, in Iran. In this study, Soolegan, station was considered. This Station is located in Soolegan River at 51° 14՜ Latitude 31° 38՜ longitude at North Karoon basin. The Soolegan station is 2086 meters higher than sea level. The data used in this study are daily discharge and daily precipitation of Soolegan station. Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network(FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) models were developed using the same input parameters for Soolegan's daily discharge estimation. The results of estimation models were compared with observed discharge values to evaluate performance of the developed models. Results of all methods were compared and shown in tables and charts.

Keywords: ANN, multi linear regression, Bayesian network, forecasting, discharge, gene expression programming

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Authors: Valentin P. Velikov

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Automatic program generation saves time, human resources, and allows receiving syntactically clear and logically correct modules. The 4-th generation programming languages are related to drawing the data and the processes of the subject area, as well as, to obtain a frame of the respective information system. The application can be separated in interface and business logic. That means, for an interactive generation of the needed system to be used an already existing toolkit or to be created a new one.

Keywords: computer science, graphical user interface, user dialog interface, dialog frames, data modeling, subject area modeling

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda

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The problem of estimating a proportion has important applications in the field of economics, and in general, in many areas such as social sciences. A common application in economics is the estimation of the headcount index. In this paper, we define the general headcount index as a proportion. Furthermore, we introduce a new quantitative method for estimating the headcount index. In particular, we suggest to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the headcount index. Assuming a real data set, results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the traditional estimator of the headcount index.

Keywords: poverty line, poor, risk of poverty, Monte Carlo simulations, sample

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Authors: S. Dey, T. Mukhopadhyay, S. Adhikari

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This paper presents an exhaustive comparative investigation on sampling techniques of polynomial regression model based stochastic natural frequency of composite plates. Both individual and combined variations of input parameters are considered to map the computational time and accuracy of each modelling techniques. The finite element formulation of composites is capable to deal with both correlated and uncorrelated random input variables such as fibre parameters and material properties. The results obtained by Polynomial regression (PR) using different sampling techniques are compared. Depending on the suitability of sampling techniques such as 2k Factorial designs, Central composite design, A-Optimal design, I-Optimal, D-Optimal, Taguchi’s orthogonal array design, Box-Behnken design, Latin hypercube sampling, sobol sequence are illustrated. Statistical analysis of the first three natural frequencies is presented to compare the results and its performance.

Keywords: composite plate, natural frequency, polynomial regression model, sampling technique, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Ahcene Habbi, Yassine Boudouaoui

Abstract:

This paper deals with the problem of automatic rule generation for fuzzy systems design. The proposed approach is based on hybrid artificial bee colony (ABC) optimization and weighted least squares (LS) method and aims to find the structure and parameters of fuzzy systems simultaneously. More precisely, two ABC based fuzzy modeling strategies are presented and compared. The first strategy uses global optimization to learn fuzzy models, the second one hybridizes ABC and weighted least squares estimate method. The performances of the proposed ABC and ABC-LS fuzzy modeling strategies are evaluated on complex modeling problems and compared to other advanced modeling methods.

Keywords: automatic design, learning, fuzzy rules, hybrid, swarm optimization

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

Abstract:

In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software

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Authors: Suzan Anwar, Utkarsh Goyal

Abstract:

Heart rate (HR) is a predictor of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and all-cause mortality in the general population, as well as in patients with cardio and cerebrovascular diseases. Machine learning (ML) significantly improves the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others. This research examines relationship between the individual's various heart health inputs like age, sex, cp, trestbps, thalach, oldpeaketc, and the likelihood of developing heart disease. Machine learning techniques like logistic regression and decision tree, and Python are used. The results of testing and evaluating the model using the Heart Failure Prediction Dataset show the chance of a person having a heart disease with variable accuracy. Logistic regression has yielded an accuracy of 80.48% without data handling. With data handling (normalization, standardscaler), the logistic regression resulted in improved accuracy of 87.80%, decision tree 100%, random forest 100%, and SVM 100%.

Keywords: heart rate, machine learning, SVM, decision tree, logistic regression, random forest

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