Search results for: reduction disasters risk

Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal, Magdy Abdel-Kader

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Purpose: This study explores whether a firm’s effective political risk management is preventing real and accrual earnings management . Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of 130 firms operating in Egypt during the period 2008-2013, two hypotheses are tested using the panel data regression models. Findings: The empirical findings indicate a significant relation between real and accrual earnings management and political risk. Originality/value: This paper provides a statistically evidence on the effects of the political risk management failure on the mangers’ engagement in the real and accrual earnings management practices, and its impact on the firm’s performance.

Keywords: political risk, risk management failure, real activities manipulation, accrual earnings management

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Authors: Finbarr Murphy, Wei Xu, Xian Xu

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The embedding of digital technologies in the global economy has attracted increasing attention from economists. With a large and detailed dataset, this study examines the specific case where consumers have a choice between offline and digital channels in the context of insurance purchases. We find that digital channels screen consumers with lower unobserved risk. For the term life, endowment, and disease insurance products, the average risk of the policies purchased through digital channels was 75%, 21%, and 31%, respectively, lower than those purchased offline. As a consequence, the lower unobserved risk leads to weaker information asymmetry and higher profitability of digital channels. We highlight three mechanisms of the risk screening effect: heterogeneous marginal influence of channel features on insurance demand, the channel features directly related to risk control, and the link between the digital divide and risk. We also find that the risk screening effect mainly comes from the extensive margin, i.e., from new consumers. This paper contributes to three connected areas in the insurance context: the heterogeneous economic impacts of digital technology adoption, insurer-side risk selection, and insurance marketing.

Keywords: digital economy, information asymmetry, insurance, mobile application, risk screening

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Authors: Prandesha Govender, Chris Cloete

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Purpose: The objective of the paper is to develop a tool for the evaluation of the financial risk of a shopping center. Methodology: Important factors that indicate the success of a shopping center were identified from the available literature. Weights were allocated to these factors and a risk rating was calculated for 505 shopping centers in the largest province in South Africa by taking the factor scores, factor weights, and category weights into account. The ratings for ten randomly selected shopping centers were correlated with consumer feedback and standardized against the ECAI (External Credit Assessment Institutions) data for the same centers. The ratings were also mapped to corporates with the same risk rating to provide a better intuitive assessment of the meaning of the inherent risk of each center. Results: The proposed risk tool shows a strong linear correlation with consumer views and can be compared to expert opinions, such as that of fund managers and REITs. Interpretation of the tool was also illustrated by correlating the risk rating of selected shopping centers to the risk rating of reputable and established entities. Conclusions: The proposed Shopping Centre Risk Tool, used in conjunction with financial inputs from the relevant center, should prove useful to an investor when the desirability of investment in or expansion, renovation, or purchase of a shopping center is being considered.

Keywords: risk, shopping centres, risk modelling, investment, rating tool, rating scale

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Authors: Taonga Temwani Chibaka

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This qualitative research study was conducted to identify the common risk factors that affect the construction industry in Malawi in the building and infrastructure (civil works) projects. The study then evaluates the possible risk responses that are done to mitigate the various risk factors that were identified. I addition the research also established the barriers to risk management implementation with lastly mapping out as where the identified risk factors fall on which stage of the project and then also map out the knowledge areas that need to be worked on the cases on Malawian construction industry in order to mitigate most of the identified risk factors. The study involved the interviewing the professionals from the construction industry in Malawi where insights and ideas were collected, analysed and interpreted. The key study findings show that risks related to clients group are perceived as most critical followed by the contractor related, consultant related and then external group related factors respectively where preventive measures are the most applied risk response technique where the aim to avoid most of the risk factors from happening. Most of the risk factors identified were internal risks and in managerial category which suggested that risk planning was to be emphasized at pre-contract stage to minimize these risks since a bigger percentage of the risk factors were mapped out at implementation stage. Furthermore, barriers to risk management were identified and the key barriers were lack of awareness; lack of knowledge; lack of formal policies in place; regarded as costly and limited time which resulted in proposing that regulating authorities to purposefully introduce intense training on risk management to make known of this new knowledge area. The study then recommends that organisation should formally implement risk management where policies should be introduced to enforce all parties to undertake this. Risk planning was regarded as paramount and this to be done from pre-contract phase so as to mitigate 80% of the risk factors. Finally, training should be done on all project management knowledge areas.

Keywords: risk management, risk factors, risks, malawi

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Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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Authors: Wasantha Pushpakumara Hitihami Mudiyanselage

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Since recent past, Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to reoccurring climate shocks that severely impact the food security, loss of human & animal lives, destructions of human settlements, displacement of people and damaging properties. Hence, the Government of Sri Lanka has taken important steps towards strengthening legal and institutional arrangements for Disaster Risks management in the country in May 2005. Puttalam administrative district is one of the disaster prone districts in Sri Lanka which constantly face the devastating consequences of the increasing natural disasters annually. Therefore disaster risk management will be a timely intervention in the area to minimize the adverse impacts of the disasters. The few functioning Disaster Risk management networks do not take children’s specific needs and vulnerabilities during emergencies into account. The most affected children and their families were evacuated to the government schools and temples and it was observed that children were left to roaming around as their parents were busy queuing up for relief goods and other priorities. In this sense, VOICE understands that the community has vital role that has to be played in facing challenges of disaster management in the area. During and after the disaster, it was viewed that some children were having psychological disorders which could be impacted negatively to children well–being. Need of child friendly space at emergency is a must action in the area to turn away negative impact coming from the hazards. VOICE with the support of national & international communities have established safer places for the children (Child Centered Spaces – CCS) and their families at emergencies. Village religious venues and schools were selected and equipped with necessary materials to be used for the children at emergency. Materials such as tools, stationeries, play materials, which couldn’t be easily found in surrounding environment, were provided for CCS centers. Village animators, youth and elders were given comprehensive training on Disaster management and their role at CCS. They did the facilitation in keeping children without fear and stress at flooding occurred in 2015 as well as they were able to improve their skills when working with children. Flooding in 2016, the government agencies have taken service of these village animators at early stage of flooding to make all disaster-related recovery actions productively & efficiently. This mechanism is sustained at village level that can be used for disaster events.

Keywords: child centered space, impacts, psychological disorders, village animators

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Authors: Santhani M. Selveindran

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Background: Natural disasters are traumatic global events that are becoming increasing more common, with significant psychosocial impact on survivors. This impact results not only in psychosocial distress but, for many, can lead to psychosocial disorders and chronic psychopathology. While there are currently available interventions that seek to prevent and treat these psychosocial sequelae, their effectiveness is uncertain. The evidence-base is emerging with more primary studies evaluating the effectiveness of various psychosocial interventions for survivors of natural disasters, which remains to be synthesized. Aim of Review: To identify, critically appraise and synthesize the current evidence-base on the effectiveness of psychosocial interventions in preventing or treating Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and/or Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) in adults and children who are survivors of natural disasters. Methods: A protocol was developed as a guide to carry out this review. A systematic search was conducted in eight international electronic databases, three grey literature databases, one dissertation and thesis repository, websites of six humanitarian and non-governmental organizations renowned for their work on natural disasters, as well as bibliographic and citation searching for eligible articles. Papers meeting the specific inclusion criteria underwent quality assessment using the Downs and Black checklist. Data were extracted from the included papers and analysed by way of narrative synthesis. Results: Database and website searching returned 3777 papers where 31 met the criteria for inclusion. Additional 2 papers were obtained through bibliographic and citation searching. Methodological quality of most papers was fair. Twenty-five studies evaluated psychological interventions, five, social interventions whereas three studies evaluated ‘mixed’ psychological and social interventions. All studies, irrespective of methodological quality, reported post-intervention reductions in symptom scores for PTSD, depression and/or anxiety and where assessed, reduced diagnosis of PTSD and MDD, and produced improvements in self-efficacy and quality of life. Statistically significant results were seen in 27 studies. However, three studies demonstrated that the evaluated interventions may not have been very beneficial. Conclusions: The overall positive results suggest that any psychosocial interventions are favourable and should be delivered to all natural disaster survivors, irrespective of age, country, and phase of disaster. Yet, heterogeneity and methodological shortcomings of the current evidence-base makes it difficult to draw definite conclusions needed to formulate categorical guidance or frameworks. Further, rigorously conducted research is needed in this area, although the feasibility of such, given the context and nature of the problem, is also recognized.

Keywords: psychosocial interventions, natural disasters, survivors, effectiveness

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Authors: Mohammad Nazri Mustafa, Pedram Hatami Abdullah, M. Fakhrur Razi Ahmad Faizul

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With the issuance of Malaysian National Annex 2017 as a part of MS EN 1998-1:2015, the seismic mapping of Malaysian Peninsular including Sabah and Sarawak has undergone some changes in terms of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) value. The revision to the PGA has raised a concern on the safety of oil and gas onshore structures as these structures were not designed to accommodate the new PGA values which are much higher than the previous values used in the original design. In view of the high numbers of structures and buildings to be re-assessed, a risk assessment methodology has been developed to prioritize and rank the assets in terms of their criticality against the new seismic loading. To-date such risk assessment method for oil and gas onshore structures is lacking, and it is the main intention of this technical paper to share the risk assessment methodology and risk elements scoring finalized via Delphi Method. The finalized methodology and the values used to rank the risk elements have been established based on years of relevant experience on the subject matter and based on a series of rigorous discussions with professionals in the industry. The risk scoring is mapped against the risk matrix (i.e., the LOF versus COF) and hence, the overall risk for the assets can be obtained. The overall risk can be used to prioritize and optimize integrity assessment, repair and strengthening work against the new seismic mapping of the country.

Keywords: methodology, PGA, risk, seismic

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Authors: Gopinath Rathod, Vinod Puranik

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Sustainability is regarded as a key concept for survival in the competitive scenario. Industrial risk and diversification of risk type’s increases with industrial developments. In the context of sustainable manufacturing, the evaluation of risk is difficult because of the incomplete information and multiple indicators. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Method (FMADM) has been used with a three level hierarchical decision making model to evaluate aggregate risk for sustainable manufacturing projects. A case study has been presented to reflect the risk characteristics in sustainable manufacturing projects.

Keywords: sustainable manufacturing, decision making, aggregate risk, fuzzy logic, fuzzy multiple attribute decision method

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Authors: Athdath Waduge Susantha Janaka Kumara, Xiefei Zhi, Zin Mie Mie Sein

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Understanding the air temperature variability is crucially important for disaster risk reduction and management. In this study, we used 15 synoptic meteorological stations to assess the spatiotemporal variability of air temperature over Sri Lanka during 1972–2021. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Principal component analysis (PCA), Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis and correlation coefficient analysis were used to investigate the long-term trends of air temperature and their possible relation to sea surface temperature (SST) over the region. The results indicate that an increasing trend in air temperature was observed with the abrupt climate change noted in the year 1994. The spatial distribution of EOF1 (63.5%) shows the positive and negative loading dipole patterns from south to northeast, while EOF2 (23.4%) explains warmer (colder) in some parts of central (south and east) areas. The power spectrum of PC1 (PC2) indicates that there is a significant period of 3-4 years (quasi-2 years). Moreover, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) provides a strong positive correlation with the air temperature of Sri Lanka, while the EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a weak negative correlation. Therefore, IOD events led to higher temperatures in the region. This study’s findings can help disaster risk reduction and management in the country.

Keywords: air temperature, interannaul variability, ENSO, IOD

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Authors: Boris Bajer, Andrea Havranova, Miroslav Vlcek, Richard Imrich, Adela Penesova

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Lifestyle interventions can prevent the deterioration of impaired glucose tolerance to manifest type 2 diabetes, and also prevent cardiovascular diseases, as it showed many studies (the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study, Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), . the China Da Qing Diabetes Prevention Study, etc.) Therefore the aim of our study was to compare the effect of intensified lifestyle intervention on cardiometabolic parameters. Methods: It is an ongoing randomized interventional clinical study (NCT02325804) focused on the reduction of body weight/fat. Intervention: hypocaloric diet (30% restriction of calories) and physical activity 150 minutes/week. Before and after 8 weeks of intervention all patients underwent complete medical examination (measurement of physical fitness, resting metabolic rate (RMR), body composition analysis, oral glucose tolerance test, parameters of lipid metabolism, and other cardiometabolic risk factors. Results: So far 39 patients finished the intervention. The average reduction of body weight was 6,8 + 4,9 kg (0-15 kg; p=0,0006), accompanied with significant reduction of body fat percentage (p ≤ 0,0001), amount of fat mass (p=0,03), waist circumference (p=0.02). Amount of lean mass and RMR remained unchanged. Heart rate (p=0,02), systolic and diastolic blood pressure was reduced (p=0,01 p=0,02 resp.) as well as insulin sensitivity was improved. Lipid parameters also changed - cholesterol, LDL decreased (p=0,05, p=0,04 resp.), while triglycerides showed tendency to decrease (p=0,055). Liver function improved, alanine aminotrasnferase (ALT) were reduced (p=0,01). Physical fitness significantly improved (as measure VO2 max (p=0,02). Conclusion: Results of our study are in line with previous results about the beneficial effect of intensive lifestyle changes on the reduction of cardiometabolic risk factors and improvement of liver function. Supported by grants APVV 15-0228; VEGA 2/0161/16

Keywords: obesity, weight loss, diet lipids, blood pressure, liver enzymes

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as non-storability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: financial derivatives, forward, futures, options, risk management

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Authors: Sirus Sharifi, Arunima Haldar, S. V. D. Nageswara Rao

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This research analyzes the effect of credit risk management practices of commercial banks in India and the relationship with their non-performing assets (NPAs). Required data on credit risk performance was collected through a survey questionnaire from top risk officers of 38 Indian banks. NPA data (period from 2012 to 2016) was collected from Prowess database compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The model was assessed utilizing cross sectional regression method. As expected, the results indicate a negative significant relationship between credit risk management in India banks and their NPA growth. The research has implications for banks given the high level of losses in India and other economies as well, and the implementation of Basel III standards by the central banks. This research would be an evidence on credit risk performance and its relationship with the level of non-performing assets (NPAs) in Indian banks.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, banks, Non-Performing Assets (NPAs)

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Authors: Witthaya Mekhum, Waleerak Sittisom

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This research investigated the effect on occupational health safety and environment at work from metal handicraft using Rattanakosin local wisdom focusing on pollution, accidents, and injuries from work. The sample group in this study included 48 metal handicraft workers in 5 communities by using questionnaires and interview to collect data. The evaluation form TISI 18001 was used to analyze job safety analysis (JSA). The results showed that risk at work reduced after applying the developed model. Banbu Community produces alloy bowl rubbed with stone. The high risk process is melting and hitting process. Before the application, the work risk was 82.71%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 50.61%. Banbart Community produces monk’s food bowl. The high risk process is blow pipe welding. Before the application, the work risk was 93.59%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 48.14%. Bannoen Community produces circle gong. The high risk process is milling process. Before the application, the work risk was 85.18%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 46.91%. Teethong Community produces gold leaf. The high risk process is hitting and spreading process. Before the application, the work risk was 86.42%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 64.19%. Ban Changthong Community produces gold ornament. The high risk process is gold melting process. Before the application, the work risk was 67.90%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 37.03%. It can be concluded that with the application of the developed model, the work risk of 5 communities was reduced in the 3 main groups: (1) Work illness reduced by 16.77%; (2) Pollution from work reduced by 10.31%; (3) Accidents and injuries from work reduced by 15.62%.

Keywords: occupational health, safety, local wisdom, Rattanakosin

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Authors: Alba Ballester Ciuró, Marc Pares Franzi

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While coming decades are likely to see a higher flood risk in Europe and greater socio-economic damages, traditional flood risk management has become inefficient. In response to that, new approaches such as capacity building and public participation have recently been incorporated in natural hazards mitigation policy (i.e. Sendai Framework for Action, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and EU Floods Directive). By integrating capacity building and public participation, we present a research concerning the promotion of participatory social capacity building actions for flood risk mitigation at the local level. Social capacities have been defined as the resources and abilities available at individual and collective level that can be used to anticipate, respond to, cope with, recover from and adapt to external stressors. Social capacity building is understood as a process of identifying communities’ social capacities and of applying collaborative strategies to improve them. This paper presents a proposal of systematization of participatory social capacity building process for flood risk mitigation, and its implementation in a high risk of flooding area in the Ebro river basin: Ribera Alta del Ebro. To develop this process, we designed and tested a tool that allows measuring and building five types of social capacities: knowledge, motivation, networks, participation and finance. The tool implementation has allowed us to assess social capacities in the area. Upon the results of the assessment we have developed a co-decision process with stakeholders and flood risk management authorities on which participatory activities could be employed to improve social capacities for flood risk mitigation. Based on the results of this process, and focused on the weaker social capacities, we developed a set of participatory actions in the area oriented to general public and stakeholders: informative sessions on flood risk management plan and flood insurances, interpretative river descents on flood risk management (with journalists, teachers, and general public), interpretative visit to the floodplain, workshop on agricultural insurance, deliberative workshop on project funding, deliberative workshops in schools on flood risk management (playing with a flood risk model). The combination of obtaining data through a mixed-methods approach of qualitative inquiry and quantitative surveys, as well as action research through co-decision processes and pilot participatory activities, show us the significant impact of public participation on social capacity building for flood risk mitigation and contributes to the understanding of which main factors intervene in this process.

Keywords: flood risk management, public participation, risk reduction, social capacities, vulnerability assessment

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Authors: Ryan C. Igama

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The complexity of disaster risk reduction management paved the way for various innovations and approaches to mitigate the loss of lives and casualties during disaster-related situations. The efficiency of doing response operations during disasters relies on the timely and organized deployment of search, rescue and retrieval teams. Indeed, the assistance provided by the search, rescue, and retrieval teams during disaster operations is a critical service needed to further minimize the loss of lives and casualties. The Armed Forces of the Philippines was mandated to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations during calamities and disasters. Thus, this study “Interoperability of 505TH Search and Rescue Group and the 205TH Tactical Helicopter Wing of the Philippine Air Force in Search and Rescue Operations: An Assessment” was intended to provide substantial information to further strengthen and promote the capabilities of search and rescue operations in the Philippines. Further, this study also aims to assess the interoperability of the 505th Search and Rescue Group of the Philippine Air Force and the 205th Tactical Helicopter Wing Philippine Air Force. This study was undertaken covering the component units in the Philippine Air Force of the Armed Forces of the Philippines – specifically the 505th SRG and the 205th THW as the involved units who also acted as the respondents of the study. The qualitative approach was the mechanism utilized in the form of focused group discussions, key informant interviews, and documentary analysis as primary means to obtain the needed data for the study. Essentially, this study was geared towards the evaluation of the effectiveness of the interoperability of the two (2) involved PAF units during search and rescue operations. Further, it also delved into the identification of the impacts, gaps, and challenges confronted regarding interoperability as to training, equipment, and coordination mechanism vis-à-vis the needed measures for improvement, respectively. The result of the study regarding the interoperability of the two (2) PAF units during search and rescue operations showed that there was a duplication in terms of functions or tasks in HADR activities, specifically during the conduct of air rescue operations in situations like calamities. In addition, it was revealed that there was a lack of equipment and training for the personnel involved in search and rescue operations which is a vital element during calamity response activities. Based on the findings of the study, it was recommended that a strategic planning workshop/activity must be conducted regarding the duties and responsibilities of the personnel involved in the search and rescue operations to address the command and control and interoperability issues of these units. Additionally, the conduct of intensive HADR-related training for the personnel involved in search and rescue operations of the two (2) PAF Units must also be conducted so they can be more proficient in their skills and sustainably increase their knowledge of search and rescue scenarios, including the capabilities of the respective units. Lastly, the updating of existing doctrines or policies must be undertaken to adapt advancement to the evolving situations in search and rescue operations.

Keywords: interoperability, search and rescue capability, humanitarian assistance, disaster response

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Authors: Rebecca M. Dagger, Katy Hadgraft, Matthew Teggart, Peter Angell

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Background: There is a growing body of evidence that demonstrates the association between sedentary behaviour, cardiometabolic risk and all-cause mortality. Since full time working adults spend approximately 8 hours per day in the workplace, interventions to reduce sedentary behaviour at work may alleviate some of the negative health outcomes associated with sedentary behaviour. The aims of this pilot study were to assess the impacts of using a Sit-Stand workstation on markers of cardiometabolic health in a cohort of desk workers. Methods: Twenty eight participants were recruited and randomly assigned to a control (n=5 males, 9 females, mean age 37 years ± 9.4 years) or intervention group (n= 5 males, 9 females, mean age 42 years ± 12.7 years). All participants attended the labs on 2 occasion’s pre and post intervention, following baseline measurements the intervention participants had the Sit Stand Workstations (Ergotron, USA) installed for a 10 week intervention period. The Sit Stand workstations allow participants to stand or sit at their usual workstation and participants were encouraged to the use the desk in a standing position at regular intervals throughout the working day. Cardiometabolic risk markers assessed were body mass, body composition (using bio impedance analysis; Tanita, Tokyo), fasting blood Total Cholesterol (TC), lipid profiles (HDL-C, LDL-C, TC: HDL-C ratio), triglycerides and fasting glucose (Cholestech LDX), resting systolic and diastolic blood pressure and resting heart rate. ANCOVA controlling for baseline values was used to assess the group difference in changes in risk markers between pre and post intervention. Results: The 10 week intervention was associated with significant reductions in some cardiometabolic risk factors. There were significant group effects on change in body mass (F (1,25)=5.915, p<0.05), total body fat percentage (F(1,25)=12.615, p<0.01), total fat mass (F (1,25)=6.954, p<0.05), and systolic blood pressure (F (1,25)=5.012, p<0.05). There were no other significant group effects on changes in other cardiometabolic risk markers. Conclusion: This pilot study highlights the importance of reducing sedentary behaviour in the workplace for reduction in cardiometabolic risk markers. Further research is required to support these findings.

Keywords: sedentary behaviour, caridometabolic risk, evidence, risk makers

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Authors: Razan Salem

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Men and women have different approaches towards investing, both in terms of strategies and risk attitudes. This study aims to focus mainly on investigating the financial risk behaviors of Arab women investors and to examine the financial risk tolerance levels of Arab women relative to Arab men investors. Using survey data on 547 Arab men and women investors, the results of Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One-Sample) test Mann-Whitney U test reveal that Arab women are risk-averse investors and have lower financial risk tolerance levels relative to Arab men. Such findings can be explained by the fact of women's nature and lower investment literacy levels. Further, the current political uncertainty in the Arab region may be considered as another explanation of Arab women’s risk aversion behavior. The study's findings support the existing literature by validating the stereotype of “women are more risk-averse than men” in the Arab region. Overall, when it comes to investment and financial behaviors, women around the world behave similarly.

Keywords: Arab region, culture, financial risk behavior, gender differences, women investors

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Authors: Siti Nor Amira Bt. Mohamad, Mohamad Yazis B. Ali Basah, Muhammad Ridhwan B. Ab. Aziz, Khairil Faizal B. Khairi, Mazlynda Bt. Md. Yusuf, Hisham B. Sabri

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The understanding of risk and the concept of it occurs associated in Islamic financing was well-known in the financial industry by the using of Profit-and-Loss Sharing (PLS). It was presently in any Islamic financial transactions in order to comply with shariah rules. However, the existence of risk in Murabahah contract of financing is an ability that the counterparty is unable to complete its obligations within the agreed terms. Therefore, it is called as credit or default risk. Credit risk occurs when the client fails to make timely payment after the bank makes complete delivery of assets. Thus, it affects the growth of the bank as the banking business is in no position to have appropriate measures to cover the risk. Therefore, the bank may impose penalty on the outstanding balance. This paper aims to highlight the credit risk determinant and issues surrounding in Islamic bank in Malaysia in terms of Murabahah financing and how to manage it by using the proper techniques. Finally, it explores the credit risk management concept that might solve the problems arise. The study found that the credit risk can be managed properly by improving the use of comprehensive reference checklist of business partners on their character and past performance as well as their comprehensive database. Besides that, prevention of credit risk can be done by using collateral as security against the risk and we also argue on the Shariah guidelines and procedures should be implement coherently by the banking business because so that the risk would be control by having an effective instrument for Islamic modes of financing.

Keywords: Islamic banking, credit risk, Murabahah financing, risk mitigation

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Authors: Sohanur Rahman, Elisabeth Sinnewe, Larelle (Ellie) Chapple, Sarah Osborne

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Greater political attention to global climate change exposes firms to a higher level of political uncertainty, which can lead to adverse capital market consequences. However, a higher level of discourse on environment-specific political risk (EPR) between management and investors can mitigate information asymmetry, followed by less stock price crash risk. This study examines whether EPR discourse in discourse in the earnings conference calls (ECC) reduces firm-level stock price crash risk in the US market. This research also explores if adverse disclosures via media channels further moderates the association between EPR on crash risk. Employing a dataset of 28,933 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2020, the empirical analysis reveals that EPR discourse in ECC reduces future stock price crash risk. However, adverse disclosures via media channels can offset the favourable effect of EPR discourse on crash risk. The results are robust to the potential endogeneity concern in a quasi-natural experiment setting.

Keywords: earnings conference calls, environment, environment-specific political risk discourse, environmental disclosures, information asymmetry, reputation risk, stock price crash risk

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Authors: Santosh Sharma

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Background: Drug abuse, needle sharing, and risky sexual behaviour are often compounded to increase the risk of HIV transmission. Injecting Drug Users are at the duel risk of needle sharing and risky sexual Behaviour, becoming more vulnerable to STI and HIV. Thus, studying the interface of injecting drug use and risky sexual behaviour is important to curb the pace of HIV epidemic among IDUs. The aim of this study is to determine the factor associated with HIV among injecting drug users in three states of India. Materials and methods: This paper analyzes covariates of multiplicity of risk behavior among injecting drug users. Findings are based on data from Integrated Behavioral and Biological Assessment (IBBA) round 2, 2010. IBBA collects the information of IDUs from the six districts. IDUs were selected on the criteria of those who were 18 years or older, who injected addictive substances/drugs for non-medical purposes at least once in past six month. A total of 1,979 in round 2 were interviewed in the IBBA. The study employs quantitative techniques using standard statistical tools to achieve the above objectives. All results presented in this paper are unweighted univariate measures. Results: Among IDUs, average duration of injecting drugs is 5.2 years. Mean duration between first drug use to first injecting drugs among younger IDUs, belongs to 18-24 years is 2.6 years Needle cleaning practices is common with above two-fifths reporting its every time cleaning. Needle sharing is quite prevalent especially among younger IDUs. Further, IDUs practicing needle sharing exhibit pervasive multi-partner behavior. Condom use with commercial partners is almost 81 %, whereas with intimate partner it is 39 %. Coexistence of needle sharing and unprotected sex enhances STI prevalence (6.8 %), which is further pronounced among divorced/separated/widowed (9.4 %). Conclusion: Working towards risk reduction for IDUs must deal with multiplicity of risk. Interventions should deal with covariates of risk, addressing youth, and risky sexual behavior.

Keywords: IDUs, HIV, STI, behaviour

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Authors: Md Masihuddin Siddiqui, Abdul Haakim Mohammed

Abstract:

Earthquakes are the most unpredictable and devastating of all natural disasters. The behaviour of a building during an earthquake depends on several factors such as stiffness, adequate lateral strength, ductility, and configurations. The experience from the performance of buildings during past earthquakes has shown that the buildings with regular geometry, uniformly distributed mass and stiffness in plan as well as in elevation suffer much less damage compared to irregular configurations. The three centers namely- centre of mass, centre of strength, centre of stiffness are the torsional parameters which contribute to the strength of the building in case of an earthquake. Inertial forces and resistive forces in a structural system act through the center of mass and center of rigidity respectively which together oppose the forces that are produced during seismic excitation. So these centers of a structural system should be positioned where the structural system is the strongest so that the effects produced due to the earthquake may have a minimal effect on the structure. In this paper, the effects of variation of strength eccentricity and stiffness eccentricity in reducing the torsional responses of the asymmetrical buildings by using pushover analysis are studied. The maximum reduction of base torsion was observed in the case of minimum strength eccentricity, and the least reduction was observed in the case of minimum stiffness eccentricity.

Keywords: strength eccentricity, stiffness eccentricity, asymmetric structure, base torsion, push over analysis

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Authors: Ossai Paulinus Edwin

Abstract:

Cash Management is a broad area having to do with the collection, concentration, and disbursement of cash including measuring the level of liquidity and managing the cash balance and short-Term Investments. Cash Management involves the efficient collection and disbursement of cash and cash equivalents. It also includes management of marketable securities because, in modern Terminology, money comprises marketable securities and actual cash in hand or in a bank. This cash management is concerned with management of cash inflow and cash outflow of a business especially as it concerns a developing nation like Nigeria. The paper throws light on the impact of cashless policy in Nigeria as it was introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December 2011 and was kick-started in Lagos in January 2012. Survey research was adopted with the questionnaires as data collection instrument. Responses show that cashless policy if adopted generally shall increase employment opportunities, reduce cash related robbery thereby reducing risk of carrying cash; it shall also reduce cash related corruption and attract more foreign investors to the country. It is expected that the introduction of cashless policy in Nigeria is a step in the right direction as it shall bring about modernization of Nigeria payment system, reduction in the cost of banking services, reduction in high security and safety risk and also curb banking related corruptions.

Keywords: cashless economy, cash management, cashless policy, e-banking, Nigeria

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Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

Abstract:

Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

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Authors: Roli Saini, Pradeep Kumar

Abstract:

A coagulation/flocculation process was adopted for the reduction of carbamate insecticide (carbofuran) from aqueous solution. Ferric chloride (FeCl₃) was used as a coagulant to treat the carbofuran. To exploit the reduction efficiency of pesticide concentration and COD, the jar-test experiments were carried out and process was optimized through response surface methodology (RSM). The effects of two independent factors; i.e., FeCl₃ dosage and pH on the reduction efficiency were estimated by using central composite design (CCD). The initial COD of the 30 mg/L concentrated solution was found to be 510 mg/L. Results exposed that the maximum reduction occurred at an optimal condition of FeCl₃ = 80 mg/L, and pH = 5.0, from which the reduction of concentration and COD 75.13% and 65.34%, respectively. The present study also predicted that the obtained regression equations could be helpful as the theoretical basis for the coagulation process of pesticide wastewater.

Keywords: carbofuran, coagulation, optimization, response surface methodology

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Authors: Anders Thorsén, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

Abstract:

As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment in order to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., intelligent distributed grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified in order to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

Abstract:

This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

Abstract:

Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

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Authors: Mohammad Khan, Arnaud Castel

Abstract:

Concrete viscoelastic properties such as shrinkage, creep, and associated relaxation are important in assessing the risk of cracking during the first few days after placement. This paper investigates the early-age mechanical and viscoelastic properties, restrained shrinkage-induced cracking and time to cracking of concrete incorporating ferronickel slag (FNS) as supplementary cementitious material. Compressive strength, indirect tensile strength and elastic modulus were measured. Tensile creep and drying shrinkage was measured on dog-bone shaped specimens. Restrained shrinkage induced stresses and concrete cracking age were assessed by using the ring test. Results revealed that early-age strength development of FNS blended concrete is lower than that of the corresponding ordinary Portland cement (OPC) concrete. FNS blended concrete showed significantly higher tensile creep. The risk of early-age cracking for the restrained specimens depends on the development of concrete tensile stress considering both restrained shrinkage and tensile creep and the development of the tensile strength. FNS blended concrete showed only 20% reduction in time to cracking compared to reference OPC concrete, and this reduction is significantly lower compared to fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag blended concretes at similar replacement level.

Keywords: ferronickel slag, restraint shrinkage, tensile creep, time to cracking

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Ossai Paulinus Edwin

Abstract:

Cash Management is a broad area having to do with the collection, concentration and disbursement of cash including measuring the level of liquidity and managing the cash balance and Short-Term Investments. Cash Management involves the efficient collection and disbursement of cash and cash equivalents. It also includes management of marketable securities because, in modern Terminology, money comprises marketable securities and actual cash in hand or in a bank. This cash management is concerned with management of cash inflow and cash outflow of a business especially as it concerns a developing nation like Nigeria. The paper throws light on the impact of cashless policy in Nigeria as it was introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December 2011 and was kick started in Lagos in January 2012. Survey research was adopted with the questionnaires as data collection instrument. Responses show that cashless policy if adopted generally shall increase employment opportunities, reduce cash related robbery thereby reducing risk of carrying cash; it shall also reduce cash related corruption and attract more foreign investors to the country. It is expected that the introduction of cashless policy in Nigeria is a step in the right direction as it shall bring about modernization of Nigeria payment system, reduction in the cost of banking services, reduction in high security and safety risk and also curb banking related corruptions.

Keywords: cashless economy, cash management, cashless policy, e-banking, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 365