Search results for: quantitative microbiological risk assessment

Authors: M. A. Stoian, D. M. Cocarta, A. Badea

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The main sources of soil pollution due to petroleum contaminants are industrial processes involve crude oil. Soil polluted with crude oil is toxic for plants, animals, and humans. Human exposure to the contaminated soil occurs through different exposure pathways: Soil ingestion, diet, inhalation, and dermal contact. The present study research is focused on soil contamination with heavy metals as a consequence of soil pollution with petroleum products. Human exposure pathways considered are: Accidentally ingestion of contaminated soil and dermal contact. The purpose of the paper is to identify the human health risk (carcinogenic risk) from soil contaminated with heavy metals. The human exposure and risk were evaluated for five contaminants of concern of the eleven which were identified in soil. Two soil samples were collected from a bioremediation platform from Muntenia Region of Romania. The soil deposited on the bioremediation platform was contaminated through extraction and oil processing. For the research work, two average soil samples from two different plots were analyzed: The first one was slightly contaminated with petroleum products (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in soil was 1420 mg/kg_d.w.), while the second one was highly contaminated (TPH in soil was 24306 mg/kg_d.w.). In order to evaluate risks posed by heavy metals due soil pollution with petroleum products, five metals known as carcinogenic were investigated: Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium^VI (Cr^VI), Nickel (Ni), and Lead (Pb). Results of the chemical analysis performed on samples collected from the contaminated soil evidence soil contamination with heavy metals as following: As in Site 1 = 6.96 mg/kg_d.w; As in Site 2 = 11.62 mg/kg_d.w, Cd in Site 1 = 0.9 mg/kg_d.w; Cd in Site 2 = 1 mg/kg_d.w; Cr^VI was 0.1 mg/kg_d.w for both sites; Ni in Site 1 = 37.00 mg/kg_d.w; Ni in Site 2 = 42.46 mg/kg_d.w; Pb in Site 1 = 34.67 mg/kg_d.w; Pb in Site 2 = 120.44 mg/kg_d.w. The concentrations for these metals exceed the normal values established in the Romanian regulation, but are smaller than the alert level for a less sensitive use of soil (industrial). Although, the concentrations do not exceed the thresholds, the next step was to assess the human health risk posed by soil contamination with these heavy metals. Results for risk were compared with the acceptable one (10^-6, according to World Human Organization). As, expected, the highest risk was identified for the soil with a higher degree of contamination: Individual Risk (IR) was 1.11×10^-5 compared with 8.61×10^-6. 

Keywords: carcinogenic risk, heavy metals, human health risk assessment, soil pollution

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Authors: Lorifel Hinay

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Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

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Authors: Girlie D. Leopoldo, Myrna S. Ceniza, Ronnie L. Besagas, Antonio Y. Asoy, Noel T. Dael, Romeo M. Del Rosario

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The quality of groundwater from main deep well sources of seven (7) municipalities in Western Misamis Oriental, Philippines was examined. The study looks at the well waters’ physicochemical properties (temperture, pH, turbidity, conductivity, TDS, salinity, chlorides, TOC, and total hardness), the heavy metals and other metals (Pb, Cd, Al, As, Hg, Sb, Zn, Cu, Fe) and their microbiological (total coliform and E. coli) characteristics. The physicochemical properties of groundwater samples were found to be within the Philippine National Standards for Drinking Water (PNSDW)/US-EPA except for the TDS, chlorides, and hardness of some sources. Well waters from both Initao and Gitagum municipalities have TDS values of 643.2 mg/L and 578.4 mg/L, respectively, as compared to PNSDW/US-EPA standard limit of 500 mg/L. These same two municipalities Initao and Gitagum as well as the municipality of Libertad also have chloride levels beyond the 250 mg/L limit of PNSDW/US-EPA/EU with values at 360, 318 and 277 mg/L respectively. The Libertad sample also registered a total hardness of 407.5 mg/L CaCO3 as compared to the 300 mg/L PNSDW limit. These mentioned three (3) municipalities are noticed to have similar geologic structures. Although metal analyses revealed the presence of Zn, Cu and Fe in almost all well water sources, their concentrations are below allowable limit. All well waters from the seven municipalities failed in total coliform count. Escherichia coli were also found in well waters from four (4) municipalities including Laguindingan, Lugait, Gitagum, and Libertad. The presence of these pathogens in the well waters needs to be addressed to make the waters suitable for human consumption.

Keywords: groundwater, deep well, physico-chemical, heavy metal, microbiological

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Authors: Oksana Domkina

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According to the modern economic theory, human capital became one of the main production factors and the most promising direction of investment, as such investment provides opportunity of obtaining high and long-term economic and social effects. Informational technology (IT) sector is the representative of this new economy which is most dependent on human capital as the main competitive factor. So the question for this sector is not whether investment in development of personal should be made, but what are the most effective ways of executing it and who has to pay for the education: Worker, company or government. In this paper we examine the IT sector, describe the labor market of IT workers and its development, and analyze the risks that IT companies may face if they invest in the development of their workers and what factors influence it. The main problem and difficulty of quantitative estimation of risk of investment in human capital of a company and its forecasting is human factor. Human behavior is often unpredictable and complex, so it requires specific approaches and methods of assessment. To build a comprehensive method of estimation of the risk of investment in human capital of a company considering human factor, we decided to use the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), that initially was created and developed. We separated three main group of factors: Risks related to the worker, related to the company, and external factors. To receive data for our research, we conducted a survey among the HR departments of Ukrainian IT companies used them as experts for the AHP method. Received results showed that IT companies mostly invest in the development of their workers, although several hire only already qualified personnel. According to the results, the most significant risks are the risk of ineffective training and the risk of non-investment that are both related to the firm. The analysis of risk factors related to the employee showed that, the factors of personal reasons, motivation, and work performance have almost the same weights of importance. Regarding internal factors of the company, there is a high role of the factor of compensation and benefits, factors of interesting projects, team, and career opportunities. As for the external environment, one of the most dangerous factor of risk is competitor activities, meanwhile the political and economical situation factor also has a relatively high weight, which is easy to explain by the influence of severe crisis in Ukraine during 2014-2015. The presented method allows to take into consideration all main factors that affect the risk of investment in human capital of a company. This gives a base for further research in this field and allows for a creation of a practical framework for making decisions regarding the personnel development strategy and specific employees' development plans for the HR departments.

Keywords: risks, personnel development, investment in development, factors of risk, risk of investment in development, IT, analytic hierarchy process, AHP

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Authors: Shubham Tandon, Rajni Goel

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The prime objective of our review paper is to study the quantitative psychology impact on our daily life. Quantitative techniques have been studied with the aim of discovering solutions in an advanced way. To get the unbiased and correct results, statistics and other useful mathematical aspects have been reviewed. So, many psychologists use quantitative techniques while working in the area of psychology with the aim of discovering solutions in an advanced way. This ensures their accurate outcomes as those will make use of precise criteria in knowing the minds and conditions of any person. Also, proper experimentation and observational tools are taken care of to avoid some possibilities of invalid data.

Keywords: quantitative psychology, psychologists, statistics, person, results, minds

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Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana

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The objective of this research is to examine the effects of internal audit innovation on firm performance effectiveness influences of financial report reliability, organizational process improvement, and risk management effectiveness. This paper drew upon the survey data collected from 400 employees survey conducted at Nonthaburi province, Thailand. The statistics utilized in this paper included percentage, mean, standard deviation, and regression analysis. The findings revealed that the majority of samples were between 31-40 years old, married, held an undergraduate degree, and had an average income between 10,000-15,000 baht. And also the results show that auditing integration has only influence on financial report reliability. Moreover, corporate risk evaluation has effect on firm performance by risk management effectiveness and control self-assessment has effect influence on firm performance by organizational process improvement and risk management effectiveness as well.

Keywords: corporate risk evaluation, firm performance effectiveness, internal audit innovation, marketing management

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Authors: Suraj Sharma

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Green infrastructure (GI) offers a contemporary approach for reducing the risk of flooding, improve water quality, and harvesting stormwater for sustainable use. GI promotes landscape planning to enhance sustainable development and urban resilience. However, the existing literature is lacking in ensuring the comprehensive assessment of GI performance in terms of ecosystem function and services for social, ecological, and economical system resilience. We propose a robust indicator set and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) for quantitative and qualitative analysis for sustainable water management to assess the capacity of urban resilience. Green infrastructure in urban resilience water management system (GIUR-WMS) supports decision-making for GI planning through scenario comparisons with urban resilience capacity index. To demonstrate the GIUR-WMS, we develop five scenarios for five sectors of Chandigarh (12, 26, 14, 17, and 34) to test common type of GI (rain barrel, rain gardens, detention basins, porous pavements, and open spaces). The result shows the open spaces achieve the highest green infrastructure urban resilience index of 4.22/5. To implement the open space scenario in urban sites, suitable vacant can be converted to green spaces (example: forest, low impact recreation areas, and detention basins) GIUR-WMS is easy to replicate, customize and apply to cities of different sizes to assess environmental, social and ecological dimensions.

Keywords: green infrastructure, assessment, urban resilience, water management system, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of history of obesity for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, family history, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eleven studies of family history and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that family history of obesity is a significant risk factor of overweight and /or obesity in offspring; risk for offspring overweight and/or obesity associated with family history varies depending of the family members included in the analysis; and when family history of obesity is present, the offspring are at greater risk for developing obesity or overweight. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, family history, risk factors, meta-analysis

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Authors: Despoina Andrioti Bygvraa, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, George Charalambous

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Exhaust gas cleaning systems, also known as scrubbers, are today widely used to allow for the use of High Sulphur Heavy Fuel Oil and still comply with the regulations limiting sulphur content in marine fuels. There are extensive concerns about environmental consequences, especially in the Baltic Sea, from the wide-scale use of scrubbers, as the wash water is acidic (ca pH 3) and contains high concentrations of toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic substances. The aim of this feasibility study is to investigate the potential adverse effects on seafarers’ health with the ultimate goal of raising awareness of chemical-related health and safety issues in the shipping environment. The project got funding from the Swedish Foundation. The team will extend previously compiled data on scrubber wash water concentrations of hazardous substances and pH to include the use of strong base in closed-loop scrubbers, and scoping assessment on handling and disposing practices. Based on the findings (a), a systematic review of risk assessment will follow to show the risk of exposures, the establishment of the hazardous levels for human health as well as the respective prevention practices. In addition, the researchers will perform (b) a systematic review to identify facilitators and barriers of the crew on compliance with the safe handling of chemicals. The study will run for 12 months, delivering (a) a risk assessment inventory with risk exposures and (b) a course description of safe handling practices. This feasibility study could provide valuable knowledge on how pollutants found in scrubbers should be considered from a human health perspective to facilitate evidence-based informed decisions in future technology- and policy development to make shipping a safer, healthier, and more attractive workplace.

Keywords: health and safety, seafarers, scrubbers, chemicals, risk exposures

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Authors: Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi, Jordi Moreno Gené

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Managerial actions which negatively profile banks and impair corporate reputation are addressed through effective internal control systems. Disregard for acceptable standards and procedures for granting credit have affected bank loan portfolios and could be cited for the crises in some European countries. The study intends to determine the effectiveness of internal control systems, investigate whether perceived agency problems exist on the part of board members and to establish the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in the European Union. Drawing theoretical support from the behavioural compliance and agency theories, about seventeen internal control variables (drawn from the revised COSO framework), bank-specific, country, stock market and macro-economic variables will be involved in the study. A purely quantitative approach will be employed to model internal control variables covering the control environment, risk management, control activities, information and communication and monitoring. Panel data from 2005-2014 on listed banks from 28 European Union countries will be used for the study. Hypotheses will be tested and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression will be run to establish the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The Hausman test will be used to select whether random or fixed effect model will be used. It is expected that listed banks will have sound internal control systems but their effectiveness cannot be confirmed. A perceived agency problem on the part of the board of directors is expected to be confirmed. The study expects significant effect of internal controls on credit risk. The study will uncover another perspective of internal controls as not only an operational risk issue but credit risk too. Banks will be cautious that observing effective internal control systems is an ethical and socially responsible act since the collapse (crisis) of financial institutions as a result of excessive default is a major contagion. This study deviates from the usual primary data approach to measuring internal control variables and rather models internal control variables in a quantitative approach for the panel data. Thus a grey area in approaching the revised COSO framework for internal controls is opened for further research. Most bank failures and crises could be averted if effective internal control systems are religiously adhered to.

Keywords: agency theory, credit risk, internal controls, revised COSO framework

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Authors: Najeebah Almahmeed

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Risk Management is an evolving subject among organizations that include corporations, governments, non-governmental organizations, and not-for-profit corporations. In order to enhance awareness around the importance of Risk Management and make sure everyone is using it in their day-to-day job, the Risk Culture topic has emerged and gained importance not only in the Finance Sector but also in the National Oil Companies in Kuwait. Risk Culture can be defined as the shared beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors within a company that guide its approach to managing risks. It acts as a connecting force that links policies, procedures, and individuals, influencing how risks are understood and tackled through activities. In this research, benefits of Risk Culture are shared, guidelines are presented to promote a risk aware culture, and fully embed and enforce Risk-based processes and procedures. Moreover, this research demonstrates methodologies of measuring the Risk Culture using specific dimensions and clusters.

Keywords: clusters, dimensions, national oil companies, risk culture, risk management

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Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva

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System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.

Keywords: Part 1309 regulations, risk models, uncertainty, unmanned aircraft systems

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Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

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Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

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Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný

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This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.

Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility

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Authors: M. Zare, S. Biau, M. Corq, Y. Roquelaure

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A wide variety of observational methods have been developed to evaluate the ergonomic workloads in manufacturing. However, the precision and accuracy of these methods remain a subject of debate. The aims of this study were to develop biomechanical methods to evaluate ergonomic workloads and to compare them with observational methods. Two observational methods, i.e. SCANIA Ergonomic Standard (SES) and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA), were used to assess ergonomic workloads at two simulated workstations. They included four tasks such as tightening & loosening, attachment of tubes and strapping as well as other actions. Sensors were also used to measure biomechanical data (Inclinometers, Accelerometers, and Goniometers). Our findings showed that in assessment of some risk factors both RULA & SES were in agreement with the results of biomechanical methods. However, there was disagreement on neck and wrist postures. In conclusion, the biomechanical approach was more precise than observational methods, but some risk factors evaluated with observational methods were not measurable with the biomechanical techniques developed.

Keywords: ergonomic, observational method, biomechanical methods, workload

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Authors: Toan Vu Duc, Son Ha Viet

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This research presents the first comprehensive survey of congener profiles (7 indicator congeners) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in sediment samples covering ten sites in CauBay River, Vietnam. Chemical analyses were carried out in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) for tri- to hepta- brominated congeners. Results pointed out a non-homogenous contamination of the sediment with ∑7 PBDE values ranging from 8.93 to 25.64ng g−1, reflecting moderate to low contamination closely in conformity to other Asian aquatic environments. The general order of decreasing congener contribution to the total load was: BDE 47 > 99 > 100 > 154, similar to the distribution pattern worldwide. PBDEs had rare risks in the sediment of studied area. However, due to the propensity of PBDEs to accumulate in various compartments of wildlife and human food webs, evaluation of biological tissues should be undertaken as a high priority.

Keywords: residue, risk assessment, PBDEs, sediment

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Authors: Mohammad H. Ruhipour, Mahdi Goharrokhi, Mahsa Ghasemi, Artadokht Ostadsarayi

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In this paper, we are aiming to study the consequences of chlorine gas leak in direct chlorine gas injection compared to using bleach (sodium hypochlorite), studying the negative effects both on the environment and individuals. This study was performed in the cooling towers of a natural fractioning unit of Bandar-e-IMAM petrochemical plant. Considering that chlorine gas is highly toxic and based on the health regulation, its release into the surrounding environment can be very dangerous for people and even fatal for individuals. We studied performing quantitative studies in the worst cases of event incidence. In addition, studying alternative methods with a lower risk was also on the agenda to select the least likely possible option causing an accident. In this paper chlorine gas release consequences have been evaluated by using PHAST software. Reaching to 10 ppm of chlorine gas concentration was basis of hazardous area determination. The results show that the full chlorine gas line rupture scenario in Pasquill category F, were worst case, and many people could be harmed around cooling towers area because of chlorine gas inhalation.

Keywords: chlorine gas, consequence modeling, cooling towers, direct chlorination, risk assessment, system failure

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

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In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis

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Authors: Junaid Asimiyu Mohammed, Olakunle Docas Tosin

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The housing environment in many developing countries is fraught with risks that have potential negative impacts on the lives of the residents. The study examined the risk factors in residential areas of two neighborhoods in Bosso Local Government Areas of Minna in Nigeria with a view to determining the level of their potential impacts. A sample of 378 households was drawn from the estimated population of 22,751 household heads. The questionnaire and direct observation were used as instruments for data collection. The data collected were analyzed using the Relative Importance Index (RII) rule to determine the level of the potential impact of the risk factors while ArcGIS was used for mapping the spatial distribution of the risks. The study established that the housing environment of Angwan Biri and El-Waziri areas of Bosso is poor and vulnerable as 26% of the houses were not habitable and 57% were only fairly habitable. The risks of epidemics, building collapse and rainstorms were evident in the area as 53% of the houses had poor ventilation; 20% of residents had no access to toilets; 47% practiced open waste dumping; 46% of the houses had cracked walls while 52% of the roofs were weak and sagging. The results of the analysis of the potential impact of the risk factors indicate a RII score of 0.528 for building collapse, 0.758 for rainstorms and 0.830 for epidemics, indicating a moderate to very high level of potential impacts. The mean RII score of 0.639 shows a significant potential impact of the risk factors. The study recommends the implementation of sanitation measures, provision of basic urban facilities and neighborhood revitalization through housing infrastructure retrofitting as measures to mitigate the risks of disasters and improve the living conditions of the residents of the study area.

Keywords: assessment, risk, residential, Nigeria

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Authors: Javad Jozaei, Rob G. Bell, Paula Blackett, Scott A. Stephens

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In the last few decades, Social Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) has been a favoured means in evaluating the susceptibility of social systems to drivers of change, including climate change and natural disasters. However, the application of SVA to inform responsive and practical strategies to deal with uncertain climate change impacts has always been challenging, and typically agencies resort back to conventional risk/vulnerability assessment. These challenges include complex nature of social vulnerability concepts which influence its applicability, complications in identifying and measuring social vulnerability determinants, the transitory social dynamics in a changing environment, and unpredictability of the scenarios of change that impacts the regime of vulnerability (including contention of when these impacts might emerge). Research suggests that the conventional quantitative approaches in SVA could not appropriately address these problems; hence, the outcomes could potentially be misleading and not fit for addressing the ongoing uncertain rise in risk. The second phase of New Zealand’s Resilience to Nature’s Challenges (RNC2) is developing a forward-looking vulnerability assessment framework and methodology that informs the decision-making and policy development in dealing with the changing coastal systems and accounts for complex dynamics of New Zealand’s coastal systems (including socio-economic, environmental and cultural). Also, RNC2 requires the new methodology to consider plausible drivers of incremental and unknowable changes, create mechanisms to enhance social and community resilience; and fits the New Zealand’s multi-layer governance system. This paper aims to analyse the conventional approaches and methodologies in SVA and offer recommendations for more responsive approaches that inform adaptive decision-making and policy development in practice. The research adopts a qualitative research design to examine different aspects of the conventional SVA processes, and the methods to achieve the research objectives include a systematic review of the literature and case study methods. We found that the conventional quantitative, reductionist and deterministic mindset in the SVA processes -with a focus the impacts of rapid stressors (i.e. tsunamis, floods)- show some deficiencies to account for complex dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), and the uncertain, long-term impacts of incremental drivers. The paper will focus on addressing the links between resilience and vulnerability; and suggests how resilience theory and its underpinning notions such as the adaptive cycle, panarchy, and system transformability could address these issues, therefore, influence the perception of vulnerability regime and its assessment processes. In this regard, it will be argued that how a shift of paradigm from ‘specific resilience’, which focuses on adaptive capacity associated with the notion of ‘bouncing back’, to ‘general resilience’, which accounts for system transformability, regime shift, ‘bouncing forward’, can deliver more effective strategies in an era characterised by ongoing change and deep uncertainty.

Keywords: complexity, social vulnerability, resilience, transformation, uncertain risks

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Authors: A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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The change in orbit evolution between collocated satellites (X, Y) inside +/-0.09 ° E/W and +/- 0.07 ° N/S cluster, after one of these satellites is placed in an inclined orbit (satellite X) and the effect of this change in the collocation safety inside the cluster window has been studied and evaluated. Several collocation scenarios had been studied in order to adjust the location of both satellites inside their cluster to maximize the separation between them and safe the mission.

Keywords: satellite, GEO, collocation, risk assessment

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Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

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Daily, many individuals die or get harmed on streets around the globe, which requires more particular solutions for transport safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) is one of the models that are considering many variables which influence road user’s safety. In iRAP, roads have been partitioned into five-star ratings from 1 star (the most reduced level) to 5 star (the most noteworthy level). These levels are calculated from risk factors which represent the effect of the geometric and traffic conditions on rod safety. The result of iRAP philosophy are the countermeasures that can be utilized to enhance safety levels and lessen fatalities numbers. These countermeasures can be utilized independently as a single treatment or in combination with other countermeasures for a section or an entire road. There is a general understanding that the efficiency of a countermeasure is liable to reduction when it is used in combination with various countermeasures. That is, crash diminishment estimations of single countermeasures cannot be summed easily. In the iRAP model, the fatalities estimations are calculated using a specific methodology. However, this methodology suffers overestimations. Therefore, this study has developed a calibration method to estimate fatalities numbers more accurately.

Keywords: crash risk factors, international road assessment program, low-income countries, road safety

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Authors: Hamad Almebayedh, Chuxia Lin, Yu wang

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The environmental impact assessment (EIA) must be improved, assessed, and quality checked for human and environmental health and safety. Soil contamination is expanding, and sites and soil remediation activities proceeding around the word which simplifies the answer “quality soil characterization” will lead to “quality EIA” to illuminate the contamination level and extent and reveal the unknown for the way forward to remediate, countifying, containing, minimizing and eliminating the environmental damage. Spatial interpolation methods play a significant role in decision making, planning remediation strategies, environmental management, and risk assessment, as it provides essential elements towards site characterization, which need to be informed into the EIA. The Innovative 3D soil mapping and soil characterization technology presented in this research paper reveal the unknown information and the extent of the contaminated soil in specific and enhance soil characterization information in general which will be reflected in improving the information provided in developing the EIA related to specific sites. The foremost aims of this research paper are to present novel 3D mapping technology to quality and cost-effectively characterize and estimate the distribution of key soil characteristics in contaminated sites and develop Innovative process/procedure “assessment measures” for EIA quality and assessment. The contaminated site and field investigation was conducted by innovative 3D mapping technology to characterize the composition of petroleum hydrocarbons contaminated soils in a decommissioned oilfield waste pit in Kuwait. The results show the depth and extent of the contamination, which has been interred into a developed assessment process and procedure for the EIA quality review checklist to enhance the EIA and drive remediation and risk assessment strategies. We have concluded that to minimize the possible adverse environmental impacts on the investigated site in Kuwait, the soil-capping approach may be sufficient and may represent a cost-effective management option as the environmental risk from the contaminated soils is considered to be relatively low. This research paper adopts a multi-method approach involving reviewing the existing literature related to the research area, case studies, and computer simulation.

Keywords: quality EIA, spatial interpolation, soil characterization, contaminated site

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Authors: Shoufeng Cao, Kim Bryceson, Damian Hine

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The existing supply chain risk management (SCRM) research is currently chaotic and somewhat disorganized, and the topic has been addressed conceptually more often than empirically. This paper, using both qualitative and quantitative data, employs a modified Meta-study method to investigate the SCRM empirical research published in quality journals over the period of 12 years (2004-2015). The purpose is to outline the extent research trends and the employed research methodologies (i.e., research method, data collection and data analysis) across the sub-field that will guide future research. The synthesized findings indicate that empirical study on risk ripple effect along an entire supply chain, industry-specific supply chain risk management and global/export supply chain risk management has not yet given much attention than it deserves in the SCRM field. Besides, it is suggested that future empirical research should employ multiple and/or mixed methods and multi-source data collection techniques to reduce common method bias and single-source bias, thus improving research validity and reliability. In conclusion, this paper helps to stimulate more quality empirical research in the SCRM field via identifying promising research directions and providing some methodology guidelines.

Keywords: empirical research, meta-study, methodology guideline, research direction, supply chain risk management

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Authors: G. La Scalia, M. Enea, R. Micale, O. Corona, L. Settanni

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The quality and condition of perishable products delivered to the market and their subsequent selling prices are directly affected by the care taken during harvesting and handling. Mechanical injury, in fact, occurs at all stages, from pre-harvest operations through post-harvest handling, packing and transport to the market. The main implications of this damage are the reduction of the product’s quality and economical losses related to the shelf life diminution. For most perishable products, the shelf life is relatively short and it is typically dictated by microbial growth related to the application of dynamic and static loads during transportation. This paper presents the correlation between vibration levels and microbiological growth on strawberries and woodland strawberries and detects the presence of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in order to develop an intelligent logistic unit capable of monitoring VOCs using a specific sensor system. Fresh fruits were exposed to vibrations by means of a vibrating table in a temperature-controlled environment. Microbiological analyses were conducted on samples, taken at different positions along the column of the crates. The values obtained were compared with control samples not exposed to vibrations and the results show that different positions along the column influence the development of bacteria, yeasts and filamentous fungi.

Keywords: microbiological analysis, shelf life, transport damage, volatile organic compounds

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Authors: Marzieh Karimihaghighi, Carlos Castillo

Abstract:

This work studies how Machine Learning (ML) may be used to increase the effectiveness of a criminal recidivism risk assessment tool, RisCanvi. The two key dimensions of this analysis are predictive accuracy and algorithmic fairness. ML-based prediction models obtained in this study are more accurate at predicting criminal recidivism than the manually-created formula used in RisCanvi, achieving an AUC of 0.76 and 0.73 in predicting violent and general recidivism respectively. However, the improvements are small, and it is noticed that algorithmic discrimination can easily be introduced between groups such as national vs foreigner, or young vs old. It is described how effectiveness and algorithmic fairness objectives can be balanced, applying a method in which a single error disparity in terms of generalized false positive rate is minimized, while calibration is maintained across groups. Obtained results show that this bias mitigation procedure can substantially reduce generalized false positive rate disparities across multiple groups. Based on these results, it is proposed that ML-based criminal recidivism risk prediction should not be introduced without applying algorithmic bias mitigation procedures.

Keywords: algorithmic fairness, criminal risk assessment, equalized odds, recidivism

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Authors: David Glassmeyer

Abstract:

Quantitative reasoning is necessary to robustly understand mathematical concepts ranging from elementary to university levels. Quantitative reasoning involves identifying and representing quantities and the relationships between these quantities. Without reasoning quantitatively, students often resort to memorizing formulas and procedures, which have negative impacts when they encounter mathematical topics in the future. This study investigated how high school students’ quantitative reasoning could be fostered within a unit on arc measure and angle relationships. Arc measure, or the measure of a central angle that cuts off a portion of a circle’s circumference, is often confused with arclength. In this study, the researcher redesigned an activity to clearly distinguish arc measure and arc length by using a quantitative reasoning framework. Data were collected from high school students to determine if this approach impacted their understanding of these concepts. Initial data indicates the approach was successful in supporting students’ quantitative reasoning of these topics. Implications for the work are that teachers themselves may also benefit from considering mathematical definitions from a quantitative reasoning framework and can use this activity in their own classrooms.

Keywords: arc length, arc measure, quantitative reasoning, student content knowledge

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Authors: Guo-Hui Lu, Jing-Yi Cai, Ke-Yan Tan, Xiao-Cai Yin, Yu Zheng, Peng-Wei Shao, Yong-Liang Yang

Abstract:

Soil erosion around abandoned mines is one of the important geological agents for pollutant diffuses to the lower reaches of the local river basin system. River loading of pollutants is an important parameter for remediation of abandoned mines. In order to obtain information on pollutant transport and diffusion downstream in mining area, the small tributary system of the Xiaxi River in Wanshan District of Guizhou Province was selected as the research area. Sediment and suspended matter samples were collected and determined for Pb, As, Hg, Zn, Co, Cd, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Mn by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS) with the pretreatment of wet digestion. Discussions are made for pollution status and spatial distribution characteristics. The total Hg content in the sediments ranged from 0.45 to 16.0 g/g (dry weight) with an average of 5.79 g/g, which was ten times higher than the limit of Class II soil for mercury by the National Soil Environmental Quality Standard. The maximum occurred at the intersection of the Jin River and the Xiaxi River. The potential ecological hazard index (RI) was used to evaluate the ecological risk of heavy metals in the sediments. The average RI value for the whole study area suggests the high potential ecological risk level. High Cd potential ecological risk was found at individual sites.

Keywords: heavy metal, risk assessment, sediment, suspended matter, Wanshan mercury mine, small tributary system

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Authors: Samuel E. Okere, Anthony E. Ataga

Abstract:

Introduction: The microbial ecology of Pleurotus osteratus and Pleurotus tuber–regium spent mushroom substrate (SMS) were characterized to determine other ways of its utilization. Materials and Methods: The microbiological properties of the spent mushroom substrate were determined using standard methods. This study was carried out at the Microbiology Laboratory University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria. Results: Quantitative microbiological analysis revealed that Pleurotus osteratus spent mushroom substrate (POSMS) contained 7.9x10⁵ and 1.2 x10³ cfu/g of total heterotrophic bacteria and total fungi count respectively while Pleurotus tuber-regium spent mushroom substrate (PTSMS) contained 1.38x10⁶ and 9.0 x10² cfu/g of total heterotrophic bacteria count and total fungi count respectively. The fungi species encountered from Pleurotus tuber-regium spent mushroom substrate (PTSMS) include Aspergillus and Cladosporum species, while Aspergillus and Penicillium species were encountered from Pleurotus osteratus spent mushroom substrate (POSMS). However, the bacteria species encountered from Pleurotus tuber-regium spent mushroom substrate include Bacillus, Acinetobacter, Alcaligenes, Actinobacter, and Pseudomonas species while Bacillus, Actinobacteria, Aeromonas, Lactobacillus and Aerococcus species were encountered from Pleurotus osteratus spent mushroom substrate (POSMS). Conclusion: Therefore based on the findings from this study, it can be concluded that spent mushroom substrate contain microorganisms that can be utilized both in bioremediation of oil-polluted soils as they contain important hydrocarbon utilizing microorganisms such as Penicillium, Aspergillus and Bacillus species and also as sources of plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) such as Pseudomonas and Bacillus species which can induce resistance on plants. However, further studies are recommended, especially to molecularly characterize these microorganisms.

Keywords: characterization, microorganisms, mushroom, spent substrate

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Authors: Shunsuke Saito, Kazuho Yoshimoto, Shunichi Ohmori, Sirawadee Arunyanart

Abstract:

In this paper, we suggest a mechanism of assessment that rater and Ratee (or employees) to convince. There are many problems exist in the personnel assessment. In particular, we were focusing on the three. (1) Raters are not sufficiently recognized assessment point. (2) Ratee are not convinced by the mechanism of assessment. (3) Raters (or Evaluators) and ratees have empathy. We suggest 1: Setting of "understanding of the assessment points." 2: Setting of "relative assessment ability." 3: Proposal of two-way assessment mechanism to solve these problems. As a prerequisite, it is assumed that there are multiple raters. This is because has been a growing importance of multi-faceted assessment. In this model, it determines the weight of each assessment point evaluators by the degree of understanding and assessment ability of raters and ratee. We used the ANP (Analytic Network Process) is a theory that an extension of the decision-making technique AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). ANP can be to address the problem of forming a network and assessment of Two-Way is possible. We apply this technique personnel assessment, the weights of rater of each point can be reasonably determined. We suggest absolute assessment for Two-Way assessment by ANP. We have verified that the consent of the two approaches is higher than conventional mechanism. Also, human resources consultant we got a comment about the application of the practice.

Keywords: personnel evaluation, pairwise comparison, analytic network process (ANP), two-ways

Procedia PDF Downloads 352