Search results for: probability formula

Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: Jason Salim, Zhouyang Lu

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Private sector involvement in Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects may raise public suspicion, as PPP is often mistaken as merely a partnership between private and government agencies without consideration for greater “public” (community). This public marginalization is crucial to be dealt with because undermining opinion of majority may cause problems such as protests and/ or low demand. Game theory approach applied in this paper shows that probability of public acceptance towards a project is affected by overall public’s perception on Private sectors’ possible profit accumulation from the project. On the contrary, goodwill of the government and private coalition alone is not enough to minimize the probability of public opposition towards a PPP project. Additionally, the threat of loss or damage raised from public opposition does not affect the profit-maximization behavior of Private sectors.

Keywords: community satisfaction, game theory, non-cooperative, PPP, public policy

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Authors: Mathinee Khongsatid, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Saengchai

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This research aims to study the democratic political socialization of the 5th and 6th Graders under the Authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean and standard deviation. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok, have displayed some characteristics following democratic political socialization both inside and outside classroom as well as outside school. However, the democratic political socialization in classroom through grouping and class participation is much more emphasized.

Keywords: democratic, political socialization, students grades 5-6, descriptive statistics

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Authors: Pin-Wei Chiang, Wen-Liang Chang, Ruey-Huei Yeh

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This paper investigates optimal replacement and preventative maintenance policies of secondhand products under a Finite Planning Horizon (FPH). Any consumer wishing to replace their product under FPH would have it undergo minimal repairs. The replacement provided would be required to undergo periodical preventive maintenance done to avoid product failure. Then, a mathematical formula for disbursement cost for products under FPH can be derived. Optimal policies are then obtained to minimize cost. In the first of two segments of the paper, a model for initial product purchase of either new or secondhand products is used. This model is built by analyzing product purchasing price, surplus value of product, as well as the minimal repair cost. The second segment uses a model for replacement products, which are also secondhand products with no limit on usage. This model analyzes the same components as the first as well as expected preventative maintenance cost. Using these two models, a formula for the expected final total cost can be developed. The formula requires four variables (optimal preventive maintenance level, preventive maintenance frequency, replacement timing, age of replacement product) to find minimal cost requirement. Based on analysis of the variables using the expected total final cost model, it was found that the purchasing price and length of ownership were directly related. Also, consumers should choose the secondhand product with the higher usage for replacement. Products with higher initial usage upon acquisition require an earlier replacement schedule. In this case, replacements should be made with a secondhand product with less usage. In addition, preventative maintenance also significantly reduces cost. Consumers that plan to use products for longer periods of time replace their products later. Hence these consumers should choose the secondhand product with lesser initial usage for replacement. Preventative maintenance also creates significant total cost savings in this case. This study provides consumers with a method of calculating both the ideal amount of usage of the products they should purchase as well as the frequency and level of preventative maintenance that should be conducted in order to minimize cost and maintain product function.

Keywords: finite planning horizon, second hand product, replacement, preventive maintenance, minimal repair

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Authors: Wipharat Saimo, Benjawan Thumthanaruk, Panida Banjongsinsiri, Nowwapan Noojuy

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Thai northern style sausage (sai-ou) is originally cuisine made of chili paste, pork, and lard. It always serves with curry paste, vegetable, and rice. The meat and lard ingredients used can be substituted by Shiitake mushroom (Lentinus edodes) and King oyster (Pleurotus eryngii) mushroom (50:50 w/w) which is suitable for all people, especially vegetarians. However, the texture of mushroom type sai-ou had no homogenous texture due to no adhesiveness property of mushroom. Therefore, this research aimed to study the ratio of hydrocolloids (konjac flour (0-100%), konjac gel (0-100%) and Citri-fi®100 FG (0-2%)) on the physicochemical properties mushroom type sai-ou. The mixture design was applied by using Minitab 16 software. Nine formula were designed for the test. The values of moisture content and water activity of nine formula were ranged from 66.25-72.17% and 0.96-0.97. The pH values were 5.44-5.89. The optimal ratio of konjac flour, konjac gel and Citri-fi®100 FG (74.75:24.75:0.5 (w/w)) yielded the highest texture profiles (hardness, springiness, cohesiveness, gumminess and chewiness) as well as color parameters (L*, a* and b*). Sensory results showed had higher acceptability scores in term of overall liking with the level of ‘like moderately’ (5.9 on 7 pointed scale). The mushroom type sai-ou sausage could be an alternative food for health-conscious consumers.

Keywords: Citri-fi® 100 FG, konjac flour, konjac gel, Thai northern style sausages

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Authors: Salim H. Al Salmani, Kevin Tansey, Mohammed S. Ozigis

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The study of the growth of built-up areas and settlement expansion is a major exercise that city managers seek to undertake to establish previous and current developmental trends. This is to ensure that there is an equal match of settlement expansion needs to the appropriate levels of services and infrastructure required. This research aims at demonstrating the potential of satellite image processing technique, harnessing the utility of single feature probability-object based image analysis technique in assessing the urban growth dynamics of the Muscat Governorate in Oman for the period 1990, 2002 and 2013. This need is fueled by the continuous expansion of the Muscat Governorate beyond predicted levels of infrastructural provision. Landsat Images of the years 1990, 2002 and 2013 were downloaded and preprocessed to forestall appropriate radiometric and geometric standards. A novel approach of probability filtering of the target feature segment was implemented to derive the spatial extent of the final Built-Up Area of the Muscat governorate for the three years period. This however proved to be a useful technique as high accuracy assessment results of 55%, 70%, and 71% were recorded for the Urban Landcover of 1990, 2002 and 2013 respectively. Furthermore, the Normalized Differential Built – Up Index for the various images were derived and used to consolidate the results of the SFP-OBIA through a linear regression model and visual comparison. The result obtained showed various hotspots where urbanization have sporadically taken place. Specifically, settlement in the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Amarat, Muscat, and Qurayyat experienced tremendous change between 1990 and 2002, while the districts (Wilayat) of AL-Seeb, Bawshar, and Muttrah experienced more sporadic changes between 2002 and 2013.

Keywords: urban growth, single feature probability, object based image analysis, landcover change

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Aji Budi Rinekso, Revika Niza Artiyana, Lisa Widayanti

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English is one of the international languages in the world. People use this language to communicate with each other in the international forums, international events or international organizations. As same as other languages, English has a rule which is called grammar. Grammar is the part of english which has a role as the language systems. In grammar, there are tenses which provide a time period system for past, present and future. Sometimes it is difficult for some English learner to remember all of the tenses completely. Especially for those with special needs or exceptional children with vision restrictiveness. The aims of this research are 1) To know the design of Special Grammar Circle (Spegraci) as the media for blind people to learn english grammar. 2) To know the work of Special Gramar Circle (Spegraci) as the media for blind people to learn english grammar. 3) To know the function of this device in increasing tenses ability for blind people. The method of this research is Research and Development which consists of several testing and revision of this device. The implementation of Special Grammar Circle (Spegraci) is to make blind people easily to learn the tenses. This device is easy to use. Users only roll this device and find out the tense formula and match to the name of the formula in braille. In addition, this device also enables to be used by normal people because normal written texts are also provided.

Keywords: blind people, media innovation, spegraci, tenses

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Authors: Harminder Kaur, Manpreet Kaur, Akanksha Kapila, Reenu

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Schiff base with general formula H₂L was derived from condensation of o-vanillin and 3-nitro-o-phenylenediamine. This Schiff base was used for the synthesis of organotin(IV) complexes with general formula R₂SnL [R=Phenyl or n-octyl] using equimolar quantities. Elemental analysis UV-Vis, FTIR, and multinuclear spectroscopic techniques (¹H, ¹³C, and ¹¹⁹Sn) NMR were carried out for the characterization of the synthesized complexes. These complexes were coloured and soluble in polar solvents. Computational studies have been performed to obtain the details of the geometry and electronic structures of ligand as well as complexes. Geometry of the ligands and complexes have been optimized at the level of Density Functional Theory with B3LYP/6-311G (d,p) and B3LYP/MPW1PW91 respectively followed by vibrational frequency analysis using Gaussian 09. Observed ¹¹⁹Sn NMR chemical shifts of one of the synthesized complexes showed tetrahedral geometry around Tin atom which is also confirmed by DFT. HOMO-LUMO energy distribution was calculated. FTIR, ¹HNMR and ¹³CNMR spectra were also obtained theoretically using DFT. Further IRC calculations were employed to determine the transition state for the reaction and to get the theoretical information about the reaction pathway. Moreover, molecular docking studies can be explored to ensure the anticancer activity of the newly synthesized organotin(IV) complexes.

Keywords: DFT, molecular docking, organotin(IV) complexes, o-vanillin, 3-nitro-o-phenylenediamine

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Authors: P. Jayaram, Prasoon Prasannan, N. K. Deepak, P. P. Pradyumnan

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Indium and Zirconium co doped zinc oxide (InZrZnO) thin films are prepared by chemical spray pyrolysis method on pre-heated quartz substrates. The films are subjected to vacuum annealing at 400ᵒC for three hours in an appropriate air (10-5mbar) ambience after deposition. X-ray diffraction, Scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive spectra and photoluminescence are used to characterize the films. Temperature dependent electrical measurements are conducted on the films and the films exhibit exceptional conductivity at higher temperatures. XRD analysis shows that all the films prepared in this work have hexagonal wurtzite structure. The average crystallite sizes of the films were calculated using Scherrer’s formula, and uniform deformation model (UDM) of Williamson-Hall method is used to establish the micro-strain values. The dislocation density is determined from the Williamson and Smallman’s formula. Intense, broad and strongly coupled multiple photoluminescence were observed from photoluminescence spectra. PL indicated relatively high concentration defective oxygen and Zn vacancies in the film composition. Strongly coupled ultraviolet near blue emissions authenticate that the dopants are capable of inducing modulated free excitonic (FX), donor accepter pair (DAP) and longitudinal optical phonon emissions in thin films.

Keywords: PL, SEM, TCOs, thin films, XRD

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Authors: Jian-You Wang, Feng Yi Hsu, Chieh-Hsi Wu

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Androgenetic alopecia (AGA) is an androgen-dependent disorder caused by excess testosterone in blood capillaries or excess enzyme activity of 5α- reductase in hair follicles. Plants, alone or in combination, have been widely used for hair growth promotion since ancient times in Asia. In this study, the efficacy of a traditional Chinese herbal formula, Shen-Ying-Yang-Zhen-Dan (SYYZD) with different kinds of extract solvents, facilitating hair regrowth in testosterone-induced hair loss have been determined. The study was performed by treating with either 95 % ethanol aqueous extracts, 50% ethanol aqueous extracts or deionized water extracts orally in four-week-old male S.D. rats that experienced hair regrowth interruption induced by testosterone treatment. The 50% ethanol aqueous extracts group showed better hair regrowth promotion activities than either 95% ethanol aqueous extracts or deionized water extracts groups in 14 days treatment. In conclusion, our results suggest that 50% ethanol aqueous SYYZD extracts have hair growth promoting potential and may be beneficial as an alternative medicine for androgenetic alopecia treatment.

Keywords: Shen-Ying-Yang-Zhen-Dan, androgenic alopecia, hair loss, hair growth promotion, hair regrowth effect

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Authors: Dong-Hyun Kim, Wan-Ho Chung, Hak-Sung Kim

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In this work, non-destructive evaluation was conducted to measure the sheet resistance of silver nanowire coated film and find a damage of that film using terahertz (THz) wave. Pulse type THz instrument was used, and the measurement was performed under transmission and pitch-catch reflection modes with 30 degree of incidence angle. In the transmission mode, the intensity of the THz wave was gradually increased as the conductivity decreased. Meanwhile, the intensity of THz wave was decreased as the conductivity decreased in the pitch-catch reflection mode. To confirm the conductivity of the film, sheet resistance was measured by 4-point probe station. Interaction formula was drawn from a relation between the intensity and the sheet resistance. Through substituting sheet resistance to the formula and comparing the resultant value with measured maximum THz wave intensity, measurement of sheet resistance using THz wave was more suitable than that using 4-point probe station. In addition, the damage on the silver nanowire coated film was detected by applying the THz image system. Therefore, the reliability of the entire film can be also be ensured. In conclusion, real-time monitoring using the THz wave can be applied in the transparent electrodes with detecting the damaged area as well as measuring the sheet resistance.

Keywords: terahertz wave, sheet resistance, non-destructive evaluation, silver nanowire

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Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

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Authors: Joanna Bajerska, Sylwia Mildner-Szkudlarz, Pawel Górnas, Dalija Segliņac

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Sour cherry pomace (CP) by-products obtained during fruit processing, was used to replace the wheat flour in muffin formula on the levels 20% (CP20) and 30% (CP30). The sensory profile of this muffins were characterized, and their impact on glycemic response and appetite sensation were studied. Randomized crossover study where test subjects were given either plain muffin (PM) or CP20 or CP30 during 2 different occasions. In the first study test muffins with equivalent of 50 g available carbohydrate were consumed. Blood glucose was measured before and up to 120 min after consuming the test muffins. To study satiety response in the second trial of the test muffins (portion 1700 kJ per serve) were ingested. Sensory analysis was performed earlier by a sensory panel consisting of 10 well-trained individuals. It is acceptable to incorporate CP into a muffin formula at concentrations up to 30%. With the CP muffins treatment, the glucose responses were significantly lower at 30, 45 and 60 min of the intervals also the incremental peak glucose was 0.40 mmol/L and 0.60 mmol/L lower than for PM. CP20 and CP30 also improved satiety as compared to PM. CP can be a good functional ingredient of functional bakery products to assist in managing glucose levels and satiety in healthy individuals.

Keywords: muffins, postprandial glucose, sensory analysis, satiety sour cherry pomace

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Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul

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We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.

Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator

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Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

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In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Karam Chand Gupta

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If an ellipse is to be drawn of given dimensions on a large ground, there is no formula, method or set of calculations & procedure available which will help in drawing an ellipse of given length and width on ground. Whenever a field engineer is to start the work of an ellipse-shaped structure like elliptical conference hall, screening chamber and pump chamber in disposal work etc., it is cumbersome for him to give demarcation of the structure on the big surface of the ground. No procedure is available, even in Google. A set of formulas with calculations has been made which helps the field engineer to draw an true and perfect ellipse of given length and width on the large ground very easily so as to start the construction work of elliptical structure. Based on these formulas a civil Engineering tool kit has been made with the help of which we can make perfect ellipse of desired dimensions on very large surface. The Patent of the tool kit has been filed in Intellectual Property India with Patent Filing Number: 201611026153 and Patent Application Filing Date: 30.07.2016. An App named ‘KC’s Mesh Formula’ has also been made to ease the calculation work. This can be downloaded from Play Store. After adopting these formulas and tool kit, a field engineer will not face difficulty in drawing ellipse on the ground to start the work.

Keywords: ellipse, elliptical structure, foci, string, wooden peg

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Authors: J. R. Bhalla, Gautam, Gurcharan Singh, Sanjeev Naval

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Mathematics is everywhere behind the every things on the earth as well as in the universe. Predynastic Egyptians of the 5th millennium BC pictorially represented geometric designs. Now a day’s we can made and apply an equation on a complex geometry through applied mathematics. Here we work and focus on to create a formula which apply in the field of civil engineering in new concrete technology. In this paper our target is to make a formula which is applied on “BAUT” Metal Aggregate. In this paper our approach is to make formulation and equation on special “BAUT” Metal Aggregate by Applied Mathematical Study Case 1. BASIC PHYSICAL FORMULATION 2. ADVANCE EQUATION which shows the mechanical performance of special metal aggregates for concrete technology. In case 1. Basic physical formulation shows the surface area and volume manually and in case 2. Advance equation shows the mechanical performance has been discussed, the metal aggregates which had outstandingly qualities to resist shear, tension and compression forces. In this paper coarse metal aggregates is 20 mm which used for making high performance concrete (H.P.C).

Keywords: applied mathematical study case, special metal aggregates, concrete technology, basic physical formulation, advance equation

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Authors: A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, N. Y. Lysov, A. V. Orlov, D. S. Zhuravkova

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Hypothesis of the lightning initiation on the arrays of large hydrometeors are in the consideration. There is no agreement about the form the hydrometeors that could be the best for the lightning initiation from the thundercloud. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the positive or negative polarity could help investigate the possible influence of the hydrometeor form on the peculiarities and the probability of the lightning discharge initiation between the thundercloud and the ground. Artificial charged aerosol clouds that could create the electric field strength in the range of 5-6 kV/cm to 16-18 kV/cm have been used in experiments. The array of the model hydrometeors of the volume and plate form has been disposed near the bottom cloud boundary. It was established that the different kinds of the discharge could be initiated in the presence of the model hydrometeors array – from the cloud discharges up to the diffuse and channel discharges between the charged cloud and the ground. It was found that the form of the model hydrometeors could significantly influence the channel discharge initiation from the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the negative or positive polarity correspondingly. Analysis and generalization of the experimental results have shown that the maximal probability of the channel discharge initiation and propagation stimulation has been observed for the artificial charged cloud of the positive polarity when the arrays of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form have been used. At the same time, for the artificial charged clouds of the negative polarity, application of the model hydrometeor array of the plate rhombus form has provided the maximal probability of the channel discharge formation between the charged cloud and the ground. The established influence of the form of the model hydrometeors on the channel discharge initiation and from the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and its following successful propagation has been related with the different character of the positive and negative streamer and volume leader development on the model hydrometeors array being near the bottom boundary of the charged cloud. The received experimental results have shown the possibly important role of the form of the large hail particles precipitated in thundercloud on the discharge initiation.

Keywords: cloud and channel discharges, hydrometeor form, lightning initiation, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud

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Authors: Wajih Abbassi, Zouhaier Ben Khelifa

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The present research points towards the empirical validation of three options valuation models, the ad-hoc Black-Scholes model as proposed by Berkowitz (2001), the constant elasticity of variance model of Cox and Ross (1976) and the Kou jump-diffusion model (2002). Our empirical analysis has been conducted on a sample of 26,974 options written on three indexes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 that were negotiated during the year 2007 just before the sub-prime crisis. We start by presenting the theoretical foundations of the models of interest. Then we use the technique of trust-region-reflective algorithm to estimate the structural parameters of these models from cross-section of option prices. The empirical analysis shows the superiority of the Kou jump-diffusion model. This superiority arises from the ability of this model to portray the behavior of market participants and to be closest to the true distribution that characterizes the evolution of these indices. Indeed the double-exponential distribution covers three interesting properties that are: the leptokurtic feature, the memory less property and the psychological aspect of market participants. Numerous empirical studies have shown that markets tend to have both overreaction and under reaction over good and bad news respectively. Despite of these advantages there are not many empirical studies based on this model partly because probability distribution and option valuation formula are rather complicated. This paper is the first to have used the technique of nonlinear curve-fitting through the trust-region-reflective algorithm and cross-section options to estimate the structural parameters of the Kou jump-diffusion model.

Keywords: jump-diffusion process, Kou model, Leptokurtic feature, trust-region-reflective algorithm, US index options

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Authors: Vikram Singh

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This paper aims to take into account carbon tax or cap-and-trade legislation to manage Delhi carbon emissions after a post-Kyoto treaty. This report estimated the influence of the carbon taxes or rebate/compensation cost at the household level. Here, the three possible scenarios will help to comprehend the difference between a straightforward compensation/rebate, and two clearly denoting progressive formula. The straightforward compensation is basically minimizing the regressive applications that will bears on cost. On the other hand, both the progressive formula will generate extra revenue, which will help for feasibility of more efficient, vehicles, appliances and buildings in the low-income household. For the hypothetical case of carbon price $40/tonne, low-income household for both urban and rural region could experience price burden up to 5% and 9% on their income as compared to 3% and 7% for high-income household respectively. The survey report also shown that carbon emission due low-income household are primarily by the substantive requirement like housing and transportation whereas almost 40% emission due to high-income household are by luxurious and non-essential items. The equal distribution of revenue cum incentives will not completely overcome high-income household’s investment in inessential items. However, it will merely help in investing their income in energy efficient and less carbon intensive items. Therefore, the rebate distribution on per capita basis instead on per households will benefit more especially large families at low-income group.

Keywords: household emission, carbon credit, carbon intensity, green house gas emission, carbon generation based insentives

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Authors: Taufik Hidayat, Yudha Nurhantari, Bambang U. D. Rianto

Abstract:

Introduction: The examination of the Short Tandem Repeats (STR) locus on nuclear DNA is very useful in solving the paternity cases. The purpose of this study is to know the description of paternity cases and paternity index/probability of paternity analysis based on Indonesian allele frequency at Sardjito Hospital Yogyakarta. Method: This was an observational study with cross-sectional analytic method. Population and sample were all cases of disputed paternity from January 2011 to June 2015 that fulfill the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were examined at Forensic Medicine Unit of Sardjito Hospital, Medical Faculty of Gadjah Mada University. The paternity index was calculated with EasyDNA Program by Fung (2013). Analysis of the study was conducted by comparing the results through unpaired categorical test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This study was designed with 95% confidence interval (CI) with α = 5% and significance level is p < 0,05. Results: From 42 disputed paternity cases we obtained trio paternity cases were 32 cases (76.2%) and duo without a mother was 10 cases (23.8%). The majority of the fathers' estimated ages were 21-30 years (33.3%) and the mother's age was 31-40 years (38.1%). The majority of the ages of children examined for paternity were under 12 months (47.6%). The majority of ethnic clients are Javanese. Conclusion of inclusion was 57.1%, and exclusion was 42.9%. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test obtained p-value = 0.673. Conclusion: There is no significant difference between paternity index/probability of paternity based on Indonesian allele frequency between trio and duo of paternity.

Keywords: disputed paternity, paternity index, probability of paternity, short tandem

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Authors: B. Ramakrishna, S. Sivamurthy Reddy

Abstract:

The various types of aggregates such as granite, dolerite, Quartzite, dolomitic limestone, limestone and river gravel were used to produce the concrete with 28-day target compressive strength of 35, 60, and 80 Mpa. The compressive strength of concrete, as well as aggregates, was measured to study the effect of rupture probability of aggregate on the fracture surface of the concrete. Also, the petrographic studies were carried out to study the texture, type of minerals present and their relative proportions in various types of aggregates. The concrete of various grades produced with the same aggregate has shown a rise in RPCA with strength. However, the above relationship has ceased to exist in the concretes of the same grade, made of different types of aggregates. The carbonate aggregates namely Limestone and Dolomitic limestone have produced concrete with higher RPCA irrespective of the strength of concrete. The mode of origin, texture and mineralogical composition of aggregates have a significant impact on their pulse velocity and thereby the pulse velocity of concrete.

Keywords: RPCA, DL, G, LS, RG

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Authors: Dewi Hapsari Ratna Muninggar, M. Rizal Martua Damanik

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to develop a formulation of instant Indonesian traditional pancake (Surabi) based on composite rice and soybean flour and supplemented with Torbangun (Coleus amboinicus Lour) powder as an alternative snack for ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder) children. Completely randomised factorial design by two factors which were the ratio of composite rice and soybean flour (75:25; 70:30; 65:35) as well as the addition of Torbangun powder (3%; 5%; 7%) was used in this study. This study revealed that the best formula was instant surabi with 65:35 composite rice and soybean flour and 5% addition of Torbangun powder by considering hedonic test result, functional aspect and nutrients contribution. Then, both chemical and physical characteristics from the best formula of instant surabi were measured. Nutrients content of the chosen instant surabi per 100 g wet basis were 62.68 g moisture, 1.30 g ash, 6.81 g protein, 0.75 g fat, 28.47 g carbohydrate, 88.62 mg calcium, 4.14 mg iron, and 144 kcal energy while physical characteristics, such as water activity, cohesiveness, and hardness were 0.97, 0.569, 5582.2 g force consecutively. The results of this research suggested that instant surabi which can be possibly beneficial for ADHD children had 65:35 for rice and soybean flour ratio as well as 5% for the addition of Torbangun powder.

Keywords: ADHD children, instant surabi, soybean, torbangun

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Arafat Husain

Abstract:

The lubricants are one of the most used resource in today’s world. Lot of the superpowers are dependent on the lubricant resource for their country to function. To see that the lubricants are not adulterated we need to develop some efficient ways and to see which fluid has been added to the lubricant. So to observe the these malpractices in the lubricant we need to develop a method. We take a elastic ball and through it at probability circle in the submerged in the lubricant at a fixed force and see the distance of pitching and the point of fall. Then we the ratio of distance of falling to the distance of pitching and if the measured ratio is greater than one the fluid is less viscous and if the ratio is lesser than the lubricant is viscous. We will check the falling point of pure lubricant at fixed force and every pure lubricant would have a fixed falling point. After that we would adulterate the lubricant and note the falling point and if the falling point is less than the standard value then adulterate is solid and if the adulterate is liquid the falling point will be more than the standard value. Hence the comparison with the standard falling point will give the efficiency of the lubricant.

Keywords: falling point of lubricant, falling point ratios, probability circle, octane number

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection structures based on measured modal parameters. Therefore, a probability-based damage detection (PBDD) procedure based on a model updating procedure is presented in this paper, in which a one-stage model-based damage identification technique based on the dynamic features of a structure is investigated. The presented framework uses a finite element updating method with a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the uncertainty caused by measurement noise. Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) is used as the main algorithm for model updating. Ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM) is a multiagent algorithm based on the ideal gas molecular movement. Ideal gas molecules disperse rapidly in different directions and cover all the space inside. This is embedded in the high speed of molecules, collisions between them and with the surrounding barriers. In IGMM algorithm to accomplish the optimal solutions, the initial population of gas molecules is randomly generated and the governing equations related to the velocity of gas molecules and collisions between those are utilized. In this paper, an enhanced version of IGMM, which removes unchanged variables after specified iterations, is developed. The proposed method is implemented on two numerical examples in the field of structural damage detection. The results show that the proposed method can perform well and competitive in PBDD of structures.

Keywords: enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM), ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM), model updating method, probability-based damage detection (PBDD), uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Emmanuel Ayobami Adesiyan

Abstract:

Political theorists have identified ethnicity as an obstacle to democratic stability in deeply divided societies. Nigeria belongs to the categories of problematic states labeled divided or deeply divided societies, as such post-independence politics is characterized by ethnicity with its ruinous effect on democratic governance and development. Institutional Engineering, the purposive manipulation of the electoral rule relating to party organization and the electoral formula has been established in comparative political studies as a policy measure for managing ethnicity in order to stabilize politics in divided societies. This paper examines the use of electoral engineering tools in managing ethnic politics in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. The study is guided by rational institutional theory. Secondary data on electoral rules and disaggregated results of presidential elections were collected from archival documents. Data were subjected to content analysis. Institutional changes in electoral rules have promoted the development of inter-ethnic bargaining and compromises within the party system. Presidential Electoral Formula aided the emergence of national rather parochial parties. Electoral engineering tools moved Nigerian Politics from ethnic parochialism to inclusion and accommodation. These innovations should be strengthened to enhance democratic stability.

Keywords: Nigeria, presidential-elections, ethnic politics, institutional engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Robert Vanderburg, Nicholas Gibson

Abstract:

Objectives: There has been an increased focus in education students’ mathematics skills in the last two years. Universities have, specifically, had problems teaching students struggling with mathematics. This paper focuses on the ability of a digital platform to significantly improve mathematics skills for struggling students. Methods: 32 students who demonstrated low scores on a mathematics test were selected to take part in a one-month tutorial program using a digital mathematics portal. Students were provided feedback for questions posted on the portal and a fortnightly tutorial session. Results: A pre-test post-test design was analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The analysis suggested that students improved skills in algebra, geometry, statistics, probability, ratios, fractions, and probability. Conclusion: Distance university students can improve their mathematics skills using a digital platform.

Keywords: digital education, distance education, higher education, mathematics education

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Deepa Das, Susmita Das

Abstract:

Cognitive Radio (CR) is an emerging technology to combat the spectrum scarcity issues. This is achieved by consistently sensing the spectrum, and detecting the under-utilized frequency bands without causing undue interference to the primary user (PU). In soft decision fusion (SDF) based cooperative spectrum sensing, various evolutionary algorithms have been discussed, which optimize the weight coefficient vector for maximizing the detection performance. In this paper, we propose the hybrid invasive weed optimization and particle swarm optimization (IWO/PSO) algorithm as a fast and global optimization method, which improves the detection probability with a lesser sensing time. Then, the efficiency of this algorithm is compared with the standard invasive weed optimization (IWO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA) and other conventional SDF based methods on the basis of convergence and detection probability.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, soft decision fusion, GA, PSO, IWO, hybrid IWO/PSO

Procedia PDF Downloads 426