Search results for: price discovery
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1665

Search results for: price discovery

75 The Role of Macroeconomic Condition and Volatility in Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swap Index Spread on Structural Models in U.S. Market during Post-Crisis Period

Authors: Xu Wang

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This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.

Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty

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74 Valorisation of Food Waste Residue into Sustainable Bioproducts

Authors: Krishmali N. Ekanayake, Brendan J. Holland, Colin J. Barrow, Rick Wood

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Globally, more than one-third of all food produced is lost or wasted, equating to 1.3 billion tonnes per year. Around 31.2 million tonnes of food waste are generated across the production, supply, and consumption chain in Australia. Generally, the food waste management processes adopt environmental-friendly and more sustainable approaches such as composting, anerobic digestion and energy implemented technologies. However, unavoidable, and non-recyclable food waste ends up as landfilling and incineration that involve many undesirable impacts and challenges on the environment. A biorefinery approach contributes to a waste-minimising circular economy by converting food and other organic biomass waste into valuable outputs, including feeds, nutrition, fertilisers, and biomaterials. As a solution, Green Eco Technologies has developed a food waste treatment process using WasteMaster system. The system uses charged oxygen and moderate temperatures to convert food waste, without bacteria, additives, or water, into a virtually odour-free, much reduced quantity of reusable residual material. In the context of a biorefinery, the WasteMaster dries and mills food waste into a form suitable for storage or downstream extraction/separation/concentration to create products. The focus of the study is to determine the nutritional composition of WasteMaster processed residue to potential develop aquafeed ingredients. The global aquafeed industry is projected to reach a high value market in future, which has shown high demand for the aquafeed products. Therefore, food waste can be utilized for aquaculture feed development by reducing landfill. This framework will lessen the requirement of raw crops cultivation for aquafeed development and reduce the aquaculture footprint. In the present study, the nutritional elements of processed residue are consistent with the input food waste type, which has shown that the WasteMaster is not affecting the expected nutritional distribution. The macronutrient retention values of protein, lipid, and nitrogen free extract (NFE) are detected >85%, >80%, and >95% respectively. The sensitive food components including omega 3 and omega 6 fatty acids, amino acids, and phenolic compounds have been found intact in each residue material. Preliminary analysis suggests a price comparability with current aquafeed ingredient cost making the economic feasibility. The results suggest high potentiality of aquafeed development as 5 to 10% of the ingredients to replace/partially substitute other less sustainable ingredients across biorefinery setting. Our aim is to improve the sustainability of aquaculture and reduce the environmental impacts of food waste.

Keywords: biorefinery, ffood waste residue, input, wasteMaster

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73 Awareness Creation of Benefits of Antitrypsin-Free Nutraceutical Biopowder for Increasing Human Serum Albumin Synthesis as Possible Adjunct for Management of MDRTB or MDRTB-HIV Patients

Authors: Vincent Oghenekevbe Olughor, Olusoji Mayowa Ige

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Except for a preexisting liver disease and malnutrition, there are no predilections for low serum albumin (SA) levels in humans. At normal reference levels (4.0-6.0g/dl) SA is a universal marker for mortality and morbidity risks assessments where depletion by 1.0g/dl increases mortality risk by 137% and morbidity by 89%.It has 40 known functions contributing significantly to the sustenance of human life. A depletion in SA to <2.2g/dl, in most clinical settings worldwide, leads to loss of oncotic pressure of blood causing clinical manifestations of bipedal Oedema, in which the patients remain conscious. SA also contributes significantly to buffering of blood to a life-sustaining pH of 7.35-7.45. A drop in blood pH to <6.9 will lead to instant coma and death, which can occur after SA continues to deplete after manifestations of bipedal Oedema. In an intervention study conducted in 2014 following the discovery that “SA is depleted during malaria fever”, a Nutraceutical formulated for use as treatment adjunct to prevent SA depletions during malaria to <2.4g/dl after Efficacy testing was found to be satisfactory. There are five known types of Malaria caused by Apicomplexan parasites, Plasmodium: the most lethal being that caused by Plasmodium falciparum causing malignant tertian malaria, in which the fever was occurring every 48 hours coincides with the dumping of malaria-toxins (Hemozoin) into blood, causing contamination: blood must remain sterile. Other Apicomplexan parasites, Toxoplasma and Cryptosporidium, are opportunistic infections of HIV. Separate studies showed SA depletions in MDRTB (multidrug resistant TB), and MDRTB-HIV patients by the same mechanism discovered with malaria and such depletions will be further complicated whenever Apicomplexan parasitic infections co-exist. Both Apicomplexan parasites and the TB parasite belong to the Obligate-group of Parasites, which are parasites that replicate only inside its host; and most of them have capacities to over-consume host nutrients during parasitaemia. In MDRTB patients the body attempts repeatedly to prevent depletions in SA to critical levels in the presence of adequate nutrients and only for a while in MDRTB-HIV patients. These groups of patients will, therefore, benefit from the already tested Nutraceutical in malaria patients. The Nutraceutical bio-Powder was formulated (to BP 1988 specification) from twelve nature-based food-grade nutrients containing all dedicated nutrients for ensuring improved synthesis of Albumin by the liver. The Nutraceutical was administered daily for 38±2days in 23 children, in a prospective phase-2 clinical trial, and its impact on body weight and core blood parameters were documented at the start and end of efficacy testing period. Sixteen children who did not experience malaria-induced depletions of SA had significant SA increase; seven children who experienced malaria-induced depletions of SA had insignificant SA decrease. The Packed Cell Volume Percentage (PCV %), a measure of the Oxygen carrying capacity of blood and the amount of nutrients the body can absorb, increased in both groups. The total serum proteins (SA+ Globulins) increased or decreased within the continuum of normal. In conclusion, MDRTB and MDRTB-HIV patients will benefit from a variant of this Nutraceutical when used as treatment adjunct.

Keywords: antitrypsin-free Nutraceutical, apicomplexan parasites, no predilections for low serum albumin, toxoplasmosis

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72 On the Utility of Bidirectional Transformers in Gene Expression-Based Classification

Authors: Babak Forouraghi

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A genetic circuit is a collection of interacting genes and proteins that enable individual cells to implement and perform vital biological functions such as cell division, growth, death, and signaling. In cell engineering, synthetic gene circuits are engineered networks of genes specifically designed to implement functionalities that are not evolved by nature. These engineered networks enable scientists to tackle complex problems such as engineering cells to produce therapeutics within the patient's body, altering T cells to target cancer-related antigens for treatment, improving antibody production using engineered cells, tissue engineering, and production of genetically modified plants and livestock. Construction of computational models to realize genetic circuits is an especially challenging task since it requires the discovery of the flow of genetic information in complex biological systems. Building synthetic biological models is also a time-consuming process with relatively low prediction accuracy for highly complex genetic circuits. The primary goal of this study was to investigate the utility of a pre-trained bidirectional encoder transformer that can accurately predict gene expressions in genetic circuit designs. The main reason behind using transformers is their innate ability (attention mechanism) to take account of the semantic context present in long DNA chains that are heavily dependent on the spatial representation of their constituent genes. Previous approaches to gene circuit design, such as CNN and RNN architectures, are unable to capture semantic dependencies in long contexts, as required in most real-world applications of synthetic biology. For instance, RNN models (LSTM, GRU), although able to learn long-term dependencies, greatly suffer from vanishing gradient and low-efficiency problem when they sequentially process past states and compresses contextual information into a bottleneck with long input sequences. In other words, these architectures are not equipped with the necessary attention mechanisms to follow a long chain of genes with thousands of tokens. To address the above-mentioned limitations, a transformer model was built in this work as a variation to the existing DNA Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (DNABERT) model. It is shown that the proposed transformer is capable of capturing contextual information from long input sequences with an attention mechanism. In previous works on genetic circuit design, the traditional approaches to classification and regression, such as Random Forrest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Networks, were able to achieve reasonably high R2 accuracy levels of 0.95 to 0.97. However, the transformer model utilized in this work, with its attention-based mechanism, was able to achieve a perfect accuracy level of 100%. Further, it is demonstrated that the efficiency of the transformer-based gene expression classifier is not dependent on the presence of large amounts of training examples, which may be difficult to compile in many real-world gene circuit designs.

Keywords: machine learning, classification and regression, gene circuit design, bidirectional transformers

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71 Marketing in the Fashion Industry and Its Critical Success Factors: The Case of Fashion Dealers in Ghana

Authors: Kumalbeo Paul Kamani

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Marketing plays a very important role in the success of any firm since it represents the means through which a firm can reach its customers and also promotes its products and services. In fact, marketing aids the firm in identifying customers who the business can competitively serve, and tailoring product offerings, prices, distribution, promotional efforts, and services towards those customers. Unfortunately, in many firms, marketing has been reduced to merely advertisement. For effective marketing, firms must go beyond this often-limited function of advertisement. In the fashion industry in particular, marketing faces challenges due to its peculiar characteristics. Previous research for instance affirms the idiosyncrasy and peculiarities that differentiate the fashion industry from other industrial areas. It has been documented that the fashion industry is characterized seasonal intensity, short product life cycles, the difficulty of competitive differentiation, and long time for companies to reach financial stability. These factors are noted to pose obstacles to the fashion entrepreneur’s endeavours and can be the reasons that explain their low survival rates. In recent times, the fashion industry has been described as a market that is accessible market, has low entry barriers, both in terms of needed capital and skills which have all accounted for the burgeoning nature of startups. Yet as already stated, marketing is particularly challenging in the industry. In particular, areas such as marketing, branding, growth, project planning, financial and relationship management might represent challenges for the fashion entrepreneur but that have not been properly addressed by previous research. It is therefore important to assess marketing strategies of fashion firms and the factors influencing their success. This study generally sought to examine marketing strategies of fashion dealers in Ghana and their critical success factors. The study employed the quantitative survey research approach. A total of 120 fashion dealers were sampled. Questionnaires were used as instrument of data collection. Data collected was analysed using quantitative techniques including descriptive statistics and Relative Importance Index. The study revealed that the marketing strategies used by fashion apparels are text messages using mobile phones, referrals, social media marketing, and direct marketing. Results again show that the factors influencing fashion marketing effectiveness are strategic management, marketing mix (product, price, promotion etc), branding and business development. Policy implications are finally outlined. The study recommends among others that there is a need for the top management executive to craft and adopt marketing strategies that enable that are compatible with the fashion trends and the needs of the customers. This will improve customer satisfaction and hence boost market penetration. The study further recommends that the fashion industry in Ghana should seek to ensure that fashion apparels accommodate the diversity and the cultural setting of different customers to meet their unique needs.

Keywords: marketing, fashion, industry, success factors

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70 Guests’ Satisfaction and Intention to Revisit Smart Hotels: Qualitative Interviews Approach

Authors: Raymond Chi Fai Si Tou, Jacey Ja Young Choe, Amy Siu Ian So

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Smart hotels can be defined as the hotel which has an intelligent system, through digitalization and networking which achieve hotel management and service information. In addition, smart hotels include high-end designs that integrate information and communication technology with hotel management fulfilling the guests’ needs and improving the quality, efficiency and satisfaction of hotel management. The purpose of this study is to identify appropriate factors that may influence guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit Smart Hotels based on service quality measurement of lodging quality index and extended UTAUT theory. Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is adopted as a framework to explain technology acceptance and use. Since smart hotels are technology-based infrastructure hotels, UTATU theory could be as the theoretical background to examine the guests’ acceptance and use after staying in smart hotels. The UTAUT identifies four key drivers of the adoption of information systems: performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions. The extended UTAUT modifies the definitions of the seven constructs for consideration; the four previously cited constructs of the UTAUT model together with three new additional constructs, which including hedonic motivation, price value and habit. Thus, the seven constructs from the extended UTAUT theory could be adopted to understand their intention to revisit smart hotels. The service quality model will also be adopted and integrated into the framework to understand the guests’ intention of smart hotels. There are rare studies to examine the service quality on guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit in smart hotels. In this study, Lodging Quality Index (LQI) will be adopted to measure the service quality in smart hotels. Using integrated UTAUT theory and service quality model because technological applications and services require using more than one model to understand the complicated situation for customers’ acceptance of new technology. Moreover, an integrated model could provide more perspective insights to explain the relationships of the constructs that could not be obtained from only one model. For this research, ten in-depth interviews are planned to recruit this study. In order to confirm the applicability of the proposed framework and gain an overview of the guest experience of smart hotels from the hospitality industry, in-depth interviews with the hotel guests and industry practitioners will be accomplished. In terms of the theoretical contribution, it predicts that the integrated models from the UTAUT theory and the service quality will provide new insights to understand factors that influence the guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit smart hotels. After this study identifies influential factors, smart hotel practitioners could understand which factors may significantly influence smart hotel guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit. In addition, smart hotel practitioners could also provide outstanding guests experience by improving their service quality based on the identified dimensions from the service quality measurement. Thus, it will be beneficial to the sustainability of the smart hotels business.

Keywords: intention to revisit, guest satisfaction, qualitative interviews, smart hotels

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69 A Postmodern Framework for Quranic Hermeneutics

Authors: Christiane Paulus

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Post-Islamism assumes that the Quran should not be viewed in terms of what Lyotard identifies as a ‘meta-narrative'. However, its socio-ethical content can be viewed as critical of power discourse (Foucault). Practicing religion seems to be limited to rites and individual spirituality, taqwa. Alternatively, can we build on Muhammad Abduh's classic-modern reform and develop it through a postmodernist frame? This is the main question of this study. Through his general and vague remarks on the context of the Quran, Abduh was the first to refer to the historical and cultural distance of the text as an obstacle for interpretation. His application, however, corresponded to the modern absolute idea of authentic sharia. He was followed by Amin al-Khuli, who hermeneutically linked the content of the Quran to the theory of evolution. Fazlur Rahman and Nasr Hamid abu Zeid remain reluctant to go beyond the general level in terms of context. The hermeneutic circle, therefore, persists in challenging, how to get out to overcome one’s own assumptions. The insight into and the acceptance of the lasting ambivalence of understanding can be grasped as a postmodern approach; it is documented in Derrida's discovery of the shift in text meanings, difference, also in Lyotard's theory of différend. The resulting mixture of meanings (Wolfgang Welsch) can be read together with the classic ambiguity of the premodern interpreters of the Quran (Thomas Bauer). Confronting hermeneutic difficulties in general, Niklas Luhmann proves every description an attribution, tautology, i.e., remaining in the circle. ‘De-tautologization’ is possible, namely by analyzing the distinctions in the sense of objective, temporal and social information that every text contains. This could be expanded with the Kantian aesthetic dimension of reason (critique of pure judgment) corresponding to the iʽgaz of the Coran. Luhmann asks, ‘What distinction does the observer/author make?’ Quran as a speech from God to the first listeners could be seen as a discourse responding to the problems of everyday life of that time, which can be viewed as the general goal of the entire Qoran. Through reconstructing koranic Lifeworlds (Alfred Schütz) in detail, the social structure crystallizes the socio-economic differences, the enormous poverty. The koranic instruction to provide the basic needs for the neglected groups, which often intersect (old, poor, slaves, women, children), can be seen immediately in the text. First, the references to lifeworlds/social problems and discourses in longer koranic passages should be hypothesized. Subsequently, information from the classic commentaries could be extracted, the classical Tafseer, in particular, contains rich narrative material for reconstructing. By selecting and assigning suitable, specific context information, the meaning of the description becomes condensed (Clifford Geertz). In this manner, the text gets necessarily an alienation and is newly accessible. The socio-ethical implications can thus be grasped from the difference of the original problem and the revealed/improved order/procedure; this small step can be materialized as such, not as an absolute solution but as offering plausible patterns for today’s challenges as the Agenda 2030.

Keywords: postmodern hermeneutics, condensed description, sociological approach, small steps of reform

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68 Medicompills Architecture: A Mathematical Precise Tool to Reduce the Risk of Diagnosis Errors on Precise Medicine

Authors: Adriana Haulica

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Powered by Machine Learning, Precise medicine is tailored by now to use genetic and molecular profiling, with the aim of optimizing the therapeutic benefits for cohorts of patients. As the majority of Machine Language algorithms come from heuristics, the outputs have contextual validity. This is not very restrictive in the sense that medicine itself is not an exact science. Meanwhile, the progress made in Molecular Biology, Bioinformatics, Computational Biology, and Precise Medicine, correlated with the huge amount of human biology data and the increase in computational power, opens new healthcare challenges. A more accurate diagnosis is needed along with real-time treatments by processing as much as possible from the available information. The purpose of this paper is to present a deeper vision for the future of Artificial Intelligence in Precise medicine. In fact, actual Machine Learning algorithms use standard mathematical knowledge, mostly Euclidian metrics and standard computation rules. The loss of information arising from the classical methods prevents obtaining 100% evidence on the diagnosis process. To overcome these problems, we introduce MEDICOMPILLS, a new architectural concept tool of information processing in Precise medicine that delivers diagnosis and therapy advice. This tool processes poly-field digital resources: global knowledge related to biomedicine in a direct or indirect manner but also technical databases, Natural Language Processing algorithms, and strong class optimization functions. As the name suggests, the heart of this tool is a compiler. The approach is completely new, tailored for omics and clinical data. Firstly, the intrinsic biological intuition is different from the well-known “a needle in a haystack” approach usually used when Machine Learning algorithms have to process differential genomic or molecular data to find biomarkers. Also, even if the input is seized from various types of data, the working engine inside the MEDICOMPILLS does not search for patterns as an integrative tool. This approach deciphers the biological meaning of input data up to the metabolic and physiologic mechanisms, based on a compiler with grammars issued from bio-algebra-inspired mathematics. It translates input data into bio-semantic units with the help of contextual information iteratively until Bio-Logical operations can be performed on the base of the “common denominator “rule. The rigorousness of MEDICOMPILLS comes from the structure of the contextual information on functions, built to be analogous to mathematical “proofs”. The major impact of this architecture is expressed by the high accuracy of the diagnosis. Detected as a multiple conditions diagnostic, constituted by some main diseases along with unhealthy biological states, this format is highly suitable for therapy proposal and disease prevention. The use of MEDICOMPILLS architecture is highly beneficial for the healthcare industry. The expectation is to generate a strategic trend in Precise medicine, making medicine more like an exact science and reducing the considerable risk of errors in diagnostics and therapies. The tool can be used by pharmaceutical laboratories for the discovery of new cures. It will also contribute to better design of clinical trials and speed them up.

Keywords: bio-semantic units, multiple conditions diagnosis, NLP, omics

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67 Studies of the Reaction Products Resulted from Glycerol Electrochemical Conversion under Galvanostatic Mode

Authors: Ching Shya Lee, Mohamed Kheireddine Aroua, Wan Mohd Ashri Wan Daud, Patrick Cognet, Yolande Peres, Mohammed Ajeel

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In recent years, with the decreasing supply of fossil fuel, renewable energy has received a significant demand. Biodiesel which is well known as vegetable oil based fatty acid methyl ester is an alternative fuel for diesel. It can be produced from transesterification of vegetable oils, such as palm oil, sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, etc., with methanol. During the transesterification process, crude glycerol is formed as a by-product, resulting in 10% wt of the total biodiesel production. To date, due to the fast growing of biodiesel production in worldwide, the crude glycerol supply has also increased rapidly and resulted in a significant price drop for glycerol. Therefore, extensive research has been developed to use glycerol as feedstock to produce various added-value chemicals, such as tartronic acid, mesoxalic acid, glycolic acid, glyceric acid, propanediol, acrolein etc. The industrial processes that usually involved are selective oxidation, biofermentation, esterification, and hydrolysis. However, the conversion of glycerol into added-value compounds by electrochemical approach is rarely discussed. Currently, the approach is mainly focused on the electro-oxidation study of glycerol under potentiostatic mode for cogenerating energy with other chemicals. The electro-organic synthesis study from glycerol under galvanostatic mode is seldom reviewed. In this study, the glycerol was converted into various added-value compounds by electrochemical method under galvanostatic mode. This work aimed to study the possible compounds produced from glycerol by electrochemical technique in a one-pot electrolysis cell. The electro-organic synthesis study from glycerol was carried out in a single compartment reactor for 8 hours, over the platinum cathode and anode electrodes under acidic condition. Various parameters such as electric current (1.0 A to 3.0 A) and reaction temperature (27 °C to 80 °C) were evaluated. The products obtained were characterized by using gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy equipped with an aqueous-stable polyethylene glycol stationary phase column. Under the optimized reaction condition, the glycerol conversion achieved as high as 95%. The glycerol was successfully converted into various added-value chemicals such as ethylene glycol, glycolic acid, glyceric acid, acetaldehyde, formic acid, and glyceraldehyde; given the yield of 1%, 45%, 27%, 4%, 0.7% and 5%, respectively. Based on the products obtained from this study, the reaction mechanism of this process is proposed. In conclusion, this study has successfully converted glycerol into a wide variety of added-value compounds. These chemicals are found to have high market value; they can be used in the pharmaceutical, food and cosmetic industries. This study effectively opens a new approach for the electrochemical conversion of glycerol. For further enhancement on the product selectivity, electrode material is an important parameter to be considered.

Keywords: biodiesel, glycerol, electrochemical conversion, galvanostatic mode

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66 Challenges of Carbon Trading Schemes in Africa

Authors: Bengan Simbarashe Manwere

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The entire African continent, comprising 55 countries, holds a 2% share of the global carbon market. The World Bank attributes the continent’s insignificant share and participation in the carbon market to the limited access to electricity. Approximately 800 million people spread across 47 African countries generate as much power as Spain, with a population of 45million. Only South Africa and North Africa have carbon-reduction investment opportunities on the continent and dominate the 2% market share of the global carbon market. On the back of the 2015 Paris Agreement, South Africa signed into law the Carbon Tax Act 15 of 2019 and the Customs and Excise Amendment Act 13 of 2019 (Gazette No. 4280) on 1 June 2019. By these laws, South Africa was ushered into the league of active global carbon market players. By increasing the cost of production by the rate of R120/tCO2e, the tax intentionally compels the internalization of pollution as a cost of production and, relatedly, stimulate investment in clean technologies. The first phase covered the 1 June 2019 – 31 December 2022 period during which the tax was meant to escalate at CPI + 2% for Scope 1 emitters. However, in the second phase, which stretches from 2023 to 2030, the tax will escalate at the inflation rate only as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). The Carbon Tax Act provides for carbon allowances as mitigation strategies to limit agents’ carbon tax liability by up to 95% for fugitive and process emissions. Although the June 2019 Carbon Tax Act explicitly makes provision for a carbon trading scheme (CTS), the carbon trading regulations thereof were only finalised in December 2020. This points to a delay in the establishment of a carbon trading scheme (CTS). Relatedly, emitters in South Africa are not able to benefit from the 95% reduction in effective carbon tax rate from R120/tCO2e to R6/tCO2e as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has not yet finalized the establishment of the market for trading carbon credits. Whereas most carbon trading schemes have been designed and constructed from the beginning as new tailor-made systems in countries the likes of France, Australia, Romania which treat carbon as a financial product, South Africa intends, on the contrary, to leverage existing trading infrastructure of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Clearing and Settlement platforms of Strate, among others, in the interest of the Paris Agreement timelines. Therefore the carbon trading scheme will not be constructed from scratch. At the same time, carbon will be treated as a commodity in order to align with the existing institutional and infrastructural capacity. This explains why the Carbon Tax Act is silent about the involvement of the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA).For South Africa, there is need to establish they equilibrium stability of the CTS. This is important as South Africa is an innovator in carbon trading and the successful trading of carbon credits on the JSE will lead to imitation by early adopters first, followed by the middle majority thereafter.

Keywords: carbon trading scheme (CTS), Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE), carbon tax act 15 of 2019, South Africa

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65 Empowering South African Female Farmers through Organic Lamb Production: A Cost Analysis Case Study

Authors: J. M. Geyser

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Lamb is a popular meat throughout the world, particularly in Europe, the Middle East and Oceania. However, the conventional lamb industry faces challenges related to environmental sustainability, climate change, consumer health and dwindling profit margins. This has stimulated an increasing demand for organic lamb, as it is perceived to increase environmental sustainability, offer superior quality, taste, and nutritional value, which is appealing to farmers, including small-scale and female farmers, as it often commands a premium price. Despite its advantages, organic lamb production presents challenges, with a significant hurdle being the high production costs encompassing organic certification, lower stocking rates, higher mortality rates and marketing cost. These costs impact the profitability and competitiveness or organic lamb producers, particularly female and small-scale farmers, who often encounter additional obstacles, such as limited access to resources and markets. Therefore, this paper examines the cost of producing organic lambs and its impact on female farmers and raises the research question: “Is organic lamb production the saving grace for female and small-scale farmers?” Objectives include estimating and comparing production costs and profitability or organic lamb production with conventional lamb production, analyzing influencing factors, and assessing opportunities and challenges for female and small-scale farmers. The hypothesis states that organic lamb production can be a viable and beneficial option for female and small-scale farmers, provided that they can overcome high production costs and access premium markets. The study uses a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative and quantitative data. Qualitative data involves semi-structured interviews with ten female and small-scale farmers engaged in organic lamb production in South Africa. The interview covered topics such as farm characteristics, practices, cost components, mortality rates, income sources and empowerment indicators. Quantitative data used secondary published information and primary data from a female farmer. The research findings indicate that when a female farmer moves from conventional lamb production to organic lamb production, the cost in the first year of organic lamb production exceed those of conventional lamb production by over 100%. This is due to lower stocking rates and higher mortality rates in the organic system. However, costs start decreasing in the second year as stocking rates increase due to manure applications on grazing and lower mortality rates due to better worm resistance in the herd. In conclusion, this article sheds light on the economic dynamics of organic lamb production, particularly focusing on its impact on female farmers. To empower female farmers and to promote sustainable agricultural practices, it is imperative to understand the cost structures and profitability of organic lamb production.

Keywords: cost analysis, empowerment, female farmers, organic lamb production

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64 Stochastic Approach for Technical-Economic Viability Analysis of Electricity Generation Projects with Natural Gas Pressure Reduction Turbines

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

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Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

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63 Catalytic Ammonia Decomposition: Cobalt-Molybdenum Molar Ratio Effect on Hydrogen Production

Authors: Elvis Medina, Alejandro Karelovic, Romel Jiménez

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Catalytic ammonia decomposition represents an attractive alternative due to its high H₂ content (17.8% w/w), a product stream free of COₓ, among others; however, challenges need to be addressed for its consolidation as an H₂ chemical storage technology, especially, those focused on the synthesis of efficient bimetallic catalytic systems, as an alternative to the price and scarcity of ruthenium, the most active catalyst reported. In this sense, from the perspective of rational catalyst design, adjusting the main catalytic activity descriptor, a screening of supported catalysts with different compositional settings of cobalt-molybdenum metals is presented to evaluate their effect on the catalytic decomposition rate of ammonia. Subsequently, a kinetic study on the supported monometallic Co and Mo catalysts, as well as on the bimetallic CoMo catalyst with the highest activity is shown. The synthesis of catalysts supported on γ-alumina was carried out using the Charge Enhanced Dry Impregnation (CEDI) method, all with a 5% w/w loading metal. Seeking to maintain uniform dispersion, the catalysts were oxidized and activated (In-situ activation) using a flow of anhydrous air and hydrogen, respectively, under the same conditions: 40 ml min⁻¹ and 5 °C min⁻¹ from room temperature to 600 °C. Catalytic tests were carried out in a fixed-bed reactor, confirming the absence of transport limitations, as well as an Approach to equilibrium (< 1 x 10⁻⁴). The reaction rate on all catalysts was measured between 400 and 500 ºC at 53.09 kPa NH3. The synergy theoretically (DFT) reported for bimetallic catalysts was confirmed experimentally. Specifically, it was observed that the catalyst composed mainly of 75 mol% cobalt proved to be the most active in the experiments, followed by the monometallic cobalt and molybdenum catalysts, in this order of activity as referred to in the literature. A kinetic study was performed at 10.13 – 101.32 kPa NH3 and at four equidistant temperatures between 437 and 475 °C the data were adjusted to an LHHW-type model, which considered the desorption of nitrogen atoms from the active phase surface as the rate determining step (RDS). The regression analysis were carried out under an integral regime, using a minimization algorithm based on SLSQP. The physical meaning of the parameters adjusted in the kinetic model, such as the RDS rate constant (k₅) and the lumped adsorption constant of the quasi-equilibrated steps (α) was confirmed through their Arrhenius and Van't Hoff-type behavior (R² > 0.98), respectively. From an energetic perspective, the activation energy for cobalt, cobalt-molybdenum, and molybdenum was 115.2, 106.8, and 177.5 kJ mol⁻¹, respectively. With this evidence and considering the volcano shape described by the ammonia decomposition rate in relation to the metal composition ratio, the synergistic behavior of the system is clearly observed. However, since characterizations by XRD and TEM were inconclusive, the formation of intermetallic compounds should be still verified using HRTEM-EDS. From this point onwards, our objective is to incorporate parameters into the kinetic expressions that consider both compositional and structural elements and explore how these can maximize or influence H₂ production.

Keywords: CEDI, hydrogen carrier, LHHW, RDS

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62 Broad Host Range Bacteriophage Cocktail for Reduction of Staphylococcus aureus as Potential Therapy for Atopic Dermatitis

Authors: Tamar Lin, Nufar Buchshtab, Yifat Elharar, Julian Nicenboim, Rotem Edgar, Iddo Weiner, Lior Zelcbuch, Ariel Cohen, Sharon Kredo-Russo, Inbar Gahali-Sass, Naomi Zak, Sailaja Puttagunta, Merav Bassan

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Background: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic, relapsing inflammatory skin disorder that is characterized by dry skin and flares of eczematous lesions and intense pruritus. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that AD is associated with increased colonization by Staphylococcus aureus, which contributes to disease pathogenesis through the release of virulence factors that affect both keratinocytes and immune cells, leading to disruption of the skin barrier and immune cell dysfunction. The aim of the current study is to develop a bacteriophage-based product that specifically targets S. aureus. Methods: For the discovery of phage, environmental samples were screened on 118 S. aureus strains isolated from skin samples, followed by multiple enrichment steps. Natural phages were isolated, subjected to Next-generation Sequencing (NGS), and analyzed using proprietary bioinformatics tools for undesirable genes (toxins, antibiotic resistance genes, lysogeny potential), taxonomic classification, and purity. Phage host range was determined by an efficiency of plating (EOP) value above 0.1 and the ability of the cocktail to completely lyse liquid bacterial culture under different growth conditions (e.g., temperature, bacterial stage). Results: Sequencing analysis demonstrated that the 118 S. aureus clinical strains were distributed across the phylogenetic tree of all available Refseq S. aureus (~10,750 strains). Screening environmental samples on the S. aureus isolates resulted in the isolation of 50 lytic phages from different genera, including Silviavirus, Kayvirus, Podoviridae, and a novel unidentified phage. NGS sequencing confirmed the absence of toxic elements in the phages’ genomes. The host range of the individual phages, as measured by the efficiency of plating (EOP), ranged between 41% (48/118) to 79% (93/118). Host range studies in liquid culture revealed that a subset of the phages can infect a broad range of S. aureus strains in different metabolic states, including stationary state. Combining the single-phage EOP results of selected phages resulted in a broad host range cocktail which infected 92% (109/118) of the strains. When tested in vitro in a liquid infection assay, clearance was achieved in 87% (103/118) of the strains, with no evidence of phage resistance throughout the study (24 hours). A S. aureus host was identified that can be used for the production of all the phages in the cocktail at high titers suitable for large-scale manufacturing. This host was validated for the absence of contaminating prophages using advanced NGS methods combined with multiple production cycles. The phages are produced under optimized scale-up conditions and are being used for the development of a topical formulation (BX005) that may be administered to subjects with atopic dermatitis. Conclusions: A cocktail of natural phages targeting S. aureus was effective in reducing bacterial burden across multiple assays. Phage products may offer safe and effective steroid-sparing options for atopic dermatitis.

Keywords: atopic dermatitis, bacteriophage cocktail, host range, Staphylococcus aureus

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61 EUROSICK: Europe, COVID Politics and the (Un)Expected Surge of Nationalistic Narratives

Authors: Faten Khazaei

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More than being turning points in history, crises are moments of acceleration of processes that are already in place. The current pandemic, as one such crisis, has triggered and exacerbated conversations about who belongs and who does not, within different European nation states, whose lives should be protected, to the detriment of whom and to what cost. In the face of the outbreak of the coronavirus, the unity of the European Union, at least at the beginning of the crisis, started to crumble. Nation-states reappeared as the main actors, and nationalistic responses spread in Europe. By closing their borders and introducing a travel ban for the Schengen Area, European countries have retreated into national fortresses. Additionally, government after government restored to war metaphors, in some cases even granting the military a visible role in the management and communication of the crisis. Mobility restrictions became a powerful tool for discrimination when their primary target was nationals of particular countries, regardless of their presence in the contaminated areas. These initial policies, measures and the recent vaccine-related management of the pandemic show the role nationalism plays in the context of public health responses to emergencies. While many scholars since last year started to document the impact of these measures on citizens', migrants', human rights and so on, almost no attention has been paid to examine and compare configurations of different European national identities that were generated in the course of the management of the pandemic, and to a sociohistorical perspective to investigate the possible links between those nationalistic and war-related discourse, on the one hand, and the exclusionary policies and practices that surged in Europe and beyond, on the other. EUROSICK's objective is to combine the sociology of migration and nationalism with research on historical disasters to fill this gap. Filling these gaps is urgent as it allows us to understand the reifications of nationalisms and the ‘us’ versus ‘them’ distinctions they produce, the ways in which they lead to regressive patterns of policy-making, and to stigmatization of entire communities and exclusionary policies even against European citizens. EUROSICK’s objective will thus positively impact the capacity of Europe to tackle the future crises, such as that of climate, in a more collective and efficient way and to avoid falling back to these understudied but historically repetitive reactions in the face of emergencies. EUROSICK examines the media coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic and the related policy documents in three European countries (Belgium, Italy, and Switzerland) at different points in time: before the outbreak in Europe, at the time of the outbreak, and the spring of 2021 following the discovery and implementation of vaccination programmes in Europe. The paper will analyse how the current pandemic crisis is reconfiguring pre-existing tensions and social divisions related to national identity within European debates. It will look at the ways in which this global threat got domesticated by comparing three different European nation states and investigates further what can be learnt from the effects of the pandemic in three different nationalist discourses and traditions. The analysis will be carried out thanks to my expertise in the analysis of discourse-practice nexus. This analytical strategy helps to better understand the development of policies to combat the pandemic, by focusing on the discursive conceptualizations of the crisis and the framing of the problems to be later addressed in practice.

Keywords: public health emergencies, nationalism, COVID politics, International solidarity

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60 Association between Polygenic Risk of Alzheimer's Dementia, Brain MRI and Cognition in UK Biobank

Authors: Rachana Tank, Donald. M. Lyall, Kristin Flegal, Joey Ward, Jonathan Cavanagh

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Alzheimer’s research UK estimates by 2050, 2 million individuals will be living with Late Onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). However, individuals experience considerable cognitive deficits and brain pathology over decades before reaching clinically diagnosable LOAD and studies have utilised gene candidate studies such as genome wide association studies (GWAS) and polygenic risk (PGR) scores to identify high risk individuals and potential pathways. This investigation aims to determine whether high genetic risk of LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive performance in healthy older adults within the UK Biobank cohort. Previous studies investigating associations of PGR for LOAD and measures of MRI or cognitive functioning have focused on specific aspects of hippocampal structure, in relatively small sample sizes and with poor ‘controlling’ for confounders such as smoking. Both the sample size of this study and the discovery GWAS sample are bigger than previous studies to our knowledge. Genetic interaction between loci showing largest effects in GWAS have not been extensively studied and it is known that APOE e4 poses the largest genetic risk of LOAD with potential gene-gene and gene-environment interactions of e4, for this reason we  also analyse genetic interactions of PGR with the APOE e4 genotype. High genetic loading based on a polygenic risk score of 21 SNPs for LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive outcomes in healthy individuals within the UK Biobank cohort. Summary statistics from Kunkle et al., GWAS meta-analyses (case: n=30,344, control: n=52,427) will be used to create polygenic risk scores based on 21 SNPs and analyses will be carried out in N=37,000 participants in the UK Biobank. This will be the largest study to date investigating PGR of LOAD in relation to MRI. MRI outcome measures include WM tracts, structural volumes. Cognitive function measures include reaction time, pairs matching, trail making, digit symbol substitution and prospective memory. Interaction of the APOE e4 alleles and PGR will be analysed by including APOE status as an interaction term coded as either 0, 1 or 2 e4 alleles. Models will be adjusted partially for adjusted for age, BMI, sex, genotyping chip, smoking, depression and social deprivation. Preliminary results suggest PGR score for LOAD is associated with decreased hippocampal volumes including hippocampal body (standardised beta = -0.04, P = 0.022) and tail (standardised beta = -0.037, P = 0.030), but not with hippocampal head. There were also associations of genetic risk with decreased cognitive performance including fluid intelligence (standardised beta = -0.08, P<0.01) and reaction time (standardised beta = 2.04, P<0.01). No genetic interactions were found between APOE e4 dose and PGR score for MRI or cognitive measures. The generalisability of these results is limited by selection bias within the UK Biobank as participants are less likely to be obese, smoke, be socioeconomically deprived and have fewer self-reported health conditions when compared to the general population. Lack of a unified approach or standardised method for calculating genetic risk scores may also be a limitation of these analyses. Further discussion and results are pending.

Keywords: Alzheimer's dementia, cognition, polygenic risk, MRI

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59 Single Crystal Growth in Floating-Zone Method and Properties of Spin Ladders: Quantum Magnets

Authors: Rabindranath Bag, Surjeet Singh

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Materials in which the electrons are strongly correlated provide some of the most challenging and exciting problems in condensed matter physics today. After the discovery of high critical temperature superconductivity in layered or two-dimensional copper oxides, many physicists got attention in cuprates and it led to an upsurge of interest in the synthesis and physical properties of copper-oxide based material. The quest to understand superconducting mechanism in high-temperature cuprates, drew physicist’s attention to somewhat simpler compounds consisting of spin-chains or one-dimensional lattice of coupled spins. Low-dimensional quantum magnets are of huge contemporary interest in basic sciences as well emerging technologies such as quantum computing and quantum information theory, and heat management in microelectronic devices. Spin ladder is an example of quasi one-dimensional quantum magnets which provides a bridge between one and two dimensional materials. One of the examples of quasi one-dimensional spin-ladder compounds is Sr14Cu24O41, which exhibits a lot of interesting and exciting physical phenomena in low dimensional systems. Very recently, the ladder compound Sr14Cu24O41 was shown to exhibit long-distance quantum entanglement crucial to quantum information theory. Also, it is well known that hole-compensation in this material results in very high (metal-like) anisotropic thermal conductivity at room temperature. These observations suggest that Sr14Cu24O41 is a potential multifunctional material which invites further detailed investigations. To investigate these properties one must needs a large and high quality of single crystal. But these systems are showing incongruently melting behavior, which brings many difficulties to grow a large and quality of single crystals. Hence, we are using TSFZ (Travelling Solvent Floating Zone) method to grow the high quality of single crystals of the low dimensional magnets. Apart from this, it has unique crystal structure (alternating stacks of plane containing edge-sharing CuO2 chains, and the plane containing two-leg Cu2O3 ladder with intermediate Sr layers along the b- axis), which is also incommensurate in nature. It exhibits abundant physical phenomenon such as spin dimerization, crystallization of charge holes and charge density wave. The maximum focus of research so far involved in introducing defects on A-site (Sr). However, apart from the A-site (Sr) doping, there are only few studies in which the B-site (Cu) doping of polycrystalline Sr14Cu24O41 have been discussed and the reason behind this is the possibility of two doping sites for Cu (CuO2 chain and Cu2O3 ladder). Therefore, in our present work, the crystals (pristine and Cu-site doped) were grown by using TSFZ method by tuning the growth parameters. The Laue diffraction images, optical polarized microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) images confirm the quality of the grown crystals. Here, we report the single crystal growth, magnetic and transport properties of Sr14Cu24O41 and its lightly doped variants (magnetic and non-magnetic) containing less than 1% of Co, Ni, Al and Zn impurities. Since, any real system will have some amount of weak disorder, our studies on these ladder compounds with controlled dilute disorder would be significant in the present context.

Keywords: low-dimensional quantum magnets, single crystal, spin-ladder, TSFZ technique

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58 Developing Pan-University Collaborative Initiatives in Support of Diversity and Inclusive Campuses

Authors: David Philpott, Karen Kennedy

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In recognition of an increasingly diverse student population, a Teaching and Learning Framework was developed at Memorial University of Newfoundland. This framework emphasizes work that is engaging, supportive, inclusive, responsive, committed to discovery, and is outcomes-oriented for both educators and learners. The goal of the Teaching and Learning framework was to develop a number of initiatives that builds on existing knowledge, proven programs, and existing supports in order to respond to the specific needs of identified groups of diverse learners: 1) academically vulnerable first year students; 2) students with individual learning needs associated with disorders and/or mental health issues; 3) international students and those from non-western cultures. This session provides an overview of this process. The strategies employed to develop these initiatives were drawn primarily from research on student success and retention (literature review), information on pre-existing programs (environmental scan), an analysis of in-house data on students at our institution; consultations with key informants at all of Memorial’s campuses. The first initiative that emerged from this research was a pilot project proposal for a first-year success program in support of the first-year experience of academically vulnerable students. This program offers a university experience that is enhanced by smaller classes, supplemental instruction, learning communities, and advising sessions. The second initiative that arose under the mandate of the Teaching and Learning Framework was a collaborative effort between two institutions (Memorial University and the College of the North Atlantic). Both institutions participated in a shared conversation to examine programs and services that support an accessible and inclusive environment for students with disorders and/or mental health issues. A report was prepared based on these conversations and an extensive review of research and programs across the country. Efforts are now being made to explore possible initiatives that address culturally diverse and non-traditional learners. While an expanding literature has emerged on diversity in higher education, the process of developing institutional initiatives is usually excluded from such discussions, while the focus remains on effective practice. The proposals that were developed constitute a co-ordination and strengthening of existing services and programs; a weaving of supports to engage a diverse body of students in a sense of community. This presentation will act as a guide through the process of developing projects addressing learner diversity and engage attendees in a discussion of institutional practices that have been implemented in support of overcoming challenges, as well as provide feedback on institutional and student outcomes. The focus of this session will be on effective practice, and will be of particular interest to university administrators, educational developers, and educators wishing to implement similar initiatives on their campuses; possible adaptations for practice will be addressed. A presentation of findings from this research will be followed by an open discussion where the sharing of research, initiatives, and best practices for the enhancement of teaching and learning is welcomed. There is much insight and understanding to be gained through the sharing of ideas and collaborative practice as we move forward to further develop the program and prepare other initiatives in support of diversity and inclusion.

Keywords: eco-scale, green analysis, environmentally-friendly, pharmaceuticals analysis

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57 A Generalized Framework for Adaptive Machine Learning Deployments in Algorithmic Trading

Authors: Robert Caulk

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A generalized framework for adaptive machine learning deployments in algorithmic trading is introduced, tested, and released as open-source code. The presented software aims to test the hypothesis that recent data contains enough information to form a probabilistically favorable short-term price prediction. Further, the framework contains various adaptive machine learning techniques that are geared toward generating profit during strong trends and minimizing losses during trend changes. Results demonstrate that this adaptive machine learning approach is capable of capturing trends and generating profit. The presentation also discusses the importance of defining the parameter space associated with the dynamic training data-set and using the parameter space to identify and remove outliers from prediction data points. Meanwhile, the generalized architecture enables common users to exploit the powerful machinery while focusing on high-level feature engineering and model testing. The presentation also highlights common strengths and weaknesses associated with the presented technique and presents a broad range of well-tested starting points for feature set construction, target setting, and statistical methods for enforcing risk management and maintaining probabilistically favorable entry and exit points. The presentation also describes the end-to-end data processing tools associated with FreqAI, including automatic data fetching, data aggregation, feature engineering, safe and robust data pre-processing, outlier detection, custom machine learning and statistical tools, data post-processing, and adaptive training backtest emulation, and deployment of adaptive training in live environments. Finally, the generalized user interface is also discussed in the presentation. Feature engineering is simplified so that users can seed their feature sets with common indicator libraries (e.g. TA-lib, pandas-ta). The user also feeds data expansion parameters to fill out a large feature set for the model, which can contain as many as 10,000+ features. The presentation describes the various object-oriented programming techniques employed to make FreqAI agnostic to third-party libraries and external data sources. In other words, the back-end is constructed in such a way that users can leverage a broad range of common regression libraries (Catboost, LightGBM, Sklearn, etc) as well as common Neural Network libraries (TensorFlow, PyTorch) without worrying about the logistical complexities associated with data handling and API interactions. The presentation finishes by drawing conclusions about the most important parameters associated with a live deployment of the adaptive learning framework and provides the road map for future development in FreqAI.

Keywords: machine learning, market trend detection, open-source, adaptive learning, parameter space exploration

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56 Construction of an Assessment Tool for Early Childhood Development in the World of DiscoveryTM Curriculum

Authors: Divya Palaniappan

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Early Childhood assessment tools must measure the quality and the appropriateness of a curriculum with respect to culture and age of the children. Preschool assessment tools lack psychometric properties and were developed to measure only few areas of development such as specific skills in music, art and adaptive behavior. Existing preschool assessment tools in India are predominantly informal and are fraught with judgmental bias of observers. The World of Discovery TM curriculum focuses on accelerating the physical, cognitive, language, social and emotional development of pre-schoolers in India through various activities. The curriculum caters to every child irrespective of their dominant intelligence as per Gardner’s Theory of Multiple Intelligence which concluded "even students as young as four years old present quite distinctive sets and configurations of intelligences". The curriculum introduces a new theme every week where, concepts are explained through various activities so that children with different dominant intelligences could understand it. For example: The ‘Insects’ theme is explained through rhymes, craft and counting corner, and hence children with one of these dominant intelligences: Musical, bodily-kinesthetic and logical-mathematical could grasp the concept. The child’s progress is evaluated using an assessment tool that measures a cluster of inter-dependent developmental areas: physical, cognitive, language, social and emotional development, which for the first time renders a multi-domain approach. The assessment tool is a 5-point rating scale that measures these Developmental aspects: Cognitive, Language, Physical, Social and Emotional. Each activity strengthens one or more of the developmental aspects. During cognitive corner, the child’s perceptual reasoning, pre-math abilities, hand-eye co-ordination and fine motor skills could be observed and evaluated. The tool differs from traditional assessment methodologies by providing a framework that allows teachers to assess a child’s continuous development with respect to specific activities in real time objectively. A pilot study of the tool was done with a sample data of 100 children in the age group 2.5 to 3.5 years. The data was collected over a period of 3 months across 10 centers in Chennai, India, scored by the class teacher once a week. The teachers were trained by psychologists on age-appropriate developmental milestones to minimize observer’s bias. The norms were calculated from the mean and standard deviation of the observed data. The results indicated high internal consistency among parameters and that cognitive development improved with physical development. A significant positive relationship between physical and cognitive development has been observed among children in a study conducted by Sibley and Etnier. In Children, the ‘Comprehension’ ability was found to be greater than ‘Reasoning’ and pre-math abilities as indicated by the preoperational stage of Piaget’s theory of cognitive development. The average scores of various parameters obtained through the tool corroborates the psychological theories on child development, offering strong face validity. The study provides a comprehensive mechanism to assess a child’s development and differentiate high performers from the rest. Based on the average scores, the difficulty level of activities could be increased or decreased to nurture the development of pre-schoolers and also appropriate teaching methodologies could be devised.

Keywords: child development, early childhood assessment, early childhood curriculum, quantitative assessment of preschool curriculum

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
55 Gene Expression Meta-Analysis of Potential Shared and Unique Pathways Between Autoimmune Diseases Under anti-TNFα Therapy

Authors: Charalabos Antonatos, Mariza Panoutsopoulou, Georgios K. Georgakilas, Evangelos Evangelou, Yiannis Vasilopoulos

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The extended tissue damage and severe clinical outcomes of autoimmune diseases, accompanied by the high annual costs to the overall health care system, highlight the need for an efficient therapy. Increasing knowledge over the pathophysiology of specific chronic inflammatory diseases, namely Psoriasis (PsO), Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IBD) consisting of Crohn’s disease (CD) and Ulcerative colitis (UC), and Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA), has provided insights into the underlying mechanisms that lead to the maintenance of the inflammation, such as Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNF-α). Hence, the anti-TNFα biological agents pose as an ideal therapeutic approach. Despite the efficacy of anti-TNFα agents, several clinical trials have shown that 20-40% of patients do not respond to treatment. Nowadays, high-throughput technologies have been recruited in order to elucidate the complex interactions in multifactorial phenotypes, with the most ubiquitous ones referring to transcriptome quantification analyses. In this context, a random effects meta-analysis of available gene expression cDNA microarray datasets was performed between responders and non-responders to anti-TNFα therapy in patients with IBD, PsO, and RA. Publicly available datasets were systematically searched from inception to 10th of November 2020 and selected for further analysis if they assessed the response to anti-TNFα therapy with clinical score indexes from inflamed biopsies. Specifically, 4 IBD (79 responders/72 non-responders), 3 PsO (40 responders/11 non-responders) and 2 RA (16 responders/6 non-responders) datasetswere selected. After the separate pre-processing of each dataset, 4 separate meta-analyses were conducted; three disease-specific and a single combined meta-analysis on the disease-specific results. The MetaVolcano R package (v.1.8.0) was utilized for a random-effects meta-analysis through theRestricted Maximum Likelihood (RELM) method. The top 1% of the most consistently perturbed genes in the included datasets was highlighted through the TopConfects approach while maintaining a 5% False Discovery Rate (FDR). Genes were considered as Differentialy Expressed (DEGs) as those with P ≤ 0.05, |log2(FC)| ≥ log2(1.25) and perturbed in at least 75% of the included datasets. Over-representation analysis was performed using Gene Ontology and Reactome Pathways for both up- and down-regulated genes in all 4 performed meta-analyses. Protein-Protein interaction networks were also incorporated in the subsequentanalyses with STRING v11.5 and Cytoscape v3.9. Disease-specific meta-analyses detected multiple distinct pro-inflammatory and immune-related down-regulated genes for each disease, such asNFKBIA, IL36, and IRAK1, respectively. Pathway analyses revealed unique and shared pathways between each disease, such as Neutrophil Degranulation and Signaling by Interleukins. The combined meta-analysis unveiled 436 DEGs, 86 out of which were up- and 350 down-regulated, confirming the aforementioned shared pathways and genes, as well as uncovering genes that participate in anti-inflammatory pathways, namely IL-10 signaling. The identification of key biological pathways and regulatory elements is imperative for the accurate prediction of the patient’s response to biological drugs. Meta-analysis of such gene expression data could aid the challenging approach to unravel the complex interactions implicated in the response to anti-TNFα therapy in patients with PsO, IBD, and RA, as well as distinguish gene clusters and pathways that are altered through this heterogeneous phenotype.

Keywords: anti-TNFα, autoimmune, meta-analysis, microarrays

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54 Rheological Characterization of Polysaccharide Extracted from Camelina Meal as a New Source of Thickening Agent

Authors: Mohammad Anvari, Helen S. Joyner (Melito)

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Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz is an oilseed crop currently used for the production of biofuels. However, the low price of diesel and gasoline has made camelina an unprofitable crop for farmers, leading to declining camelina production in the US. Hence, the ability to utilize camelina byproduct (defatted meal) after oil extraction would be a pivotal factor for promoting the economic value of the plant. Camelina defatted meal is rich in proteins and polysaccharides. The great diversity in the polysaccharide structural features provides a unique opportunity for use in food formulations as thickeners, gelling agents, emulsifiers, and stabilizers. There is currently a great degree of interest in the study of novel plant polysaccharides, as they can be derived from readily accessible sources and have potential application in a wide range of food formulations. However, there are no published studies on the polysaccharide extracted from camelina meal, and its potential industrial applications remain largely underexploited. Rheological properties are a key functional feature of polysaccharides and are highly dependent on the material composition and molecular structure. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the rheological properties of the polysaccharide extracted from camelina meal at different conditions to obtain insight on the molecular characteristics of the polysaccharide. Flow and dynamic mechanical behaviors were determined under different temperatures (5-50°C) and concentrations (1-6% w/v). Additionally, the zeta potential of the polysaccharide dispersion was measured at different pHs (2-11) and a biopolymer concentration of 0.05% (w/v). Shear rate sweep data revealed that the camelina polysaccharide displayed shear thinning (pseudoplastic) behavior, which is typical of polymer systems. The polysaccharide dispersion (1% w/v) showed no significant changes in viscosity with temperature, which makes it a promising ingredient in products requiring texture stability over a range of temperatures. However, the viscosity increased significantly with increased concentration, indicating that camelina polysaccharide can be used in food products at different concentrations to produce a range of textures. Dynamic mechanical spectra showed similar trends. The temperature had little effect on viscoelastic moduli. However, moduli were strongly affected by concentration: samples exhibited concentrated solution behavior at low concentrations (1-2% w/v) and weak gel behavior at higher concentrations (4-6% w/v). These rheological properties can be used for designing and modeling of liquid and semisolid products. Zeta potential affects the intensity of molecular interactions and molecular conformation and can alter solubility, stability, and eventually, the functionality of the materials as their environment changes. In this study, the zeta potential value significantly decreased from 0.0 to -62.5 as pH increased from 2 to 11, indicating that pH may affect the functional properties of the polysaccharide. The results obtained in the current study showed that camelina polysaccharide has significant potential for application in various food systems and can be introduced as a novel anionic thickening agent with unique properties.

Keywords: Camelina meal, polysaccharide, rheology, zeta potential

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53 Poly(Trimethylene Carbonate)/Poly(ε-Caprolactone) Phase-Separated Triblock Copolymers with Advanced Properties

Authors: Nikola Toshikj, Michel Ramonda, Sylvain Catrouillet, Jean-Jacques Robin, Sebastien Blanquer

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Biodegradable and biocompatible block copolymers have risen as the golden materials in both medical and environmental applications. Moreover, if their architecture is of controlled manner, higher applications can be foreseen. In the meantime, organocatalytic ROP has been promoted as more rapid and immaculate route, compared to the traditional organometallic catalysis, towards efficient synthesis of block copolymer architectures. Therefore, herein we report novel organocatalytic pathway with guanidine molecules (TBD) for supported synthesis of trimethylene carbonate initiated by poly(caprolactone) as pre-polymer. Pristine PTMC-b-PCL-b-PTMC block copolymer structure, without any residual products and clear desired block proportions, was achieved under 1.5 hours at room temperature and verified by NMR spectroscopies and size-exclusion chromatography. Besides, when elaborating block copolymer films, further stability and amelioration of mechanical properties can be achieved via additional reticulation step of precedently methacrylated block copolymers. Subsequently, stimulated by the insufficient studies on the phase-separation/crystallinity relationship in these semi-crystalline block copolymer systems, their intrinsic thermal and morphology properties were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry and atomic force microscopy. Firstly, by DSC measurements, the block copolymers with χABN values superior to 20 presented two distinct glass transition temperatures, close to the ones of the respecting homopolymers, demonstrating an initial indication of a phase-separated system. In the interim, the existence of the crystalline phase was supported by the presence of melting temperature. As expected, the crystallinity driven phase-separated morphology predominated in the AFM analysis of the block copolymers. Neither crosslinking at melted state, hence creation of a dense polymer network, disturbed the crystallinity phenomena. However, the later revealed as sensible to rapid liquid nitrogen quenching directly from the melted state. Therefore, AFM analysis of liquid nitrogen quenched and crosslinked block copolymer films demonstrated a thermodynamically driven phase-separation clearly predominating over the originally crystalline one. These AFM films remained stable with their morphology unchanged even after 4 months at room temperature. However, as demonstrated by DSC analysis once rising the temperature above the melting temperature of the PCL block, neither the crosslinking nor the liquid nitrogen quenching shattered the semi-crystalline network, while the access to thermodynamical phase-separated structures was possible for temperatures under the poly (caprolactone) melting point. Precisely this coexistence of dual crosslinked/crystalline networks in the same copolymer structure allowed us to establish, for the first time, the shape-memory properties in such materials, as verified by thermomechanical analysis. Moreover, the response temperature to the material original shape depended on the block copolymer emplacement, hence PTMC or PCL as end-block. Therefore, it has been possible to reach a block copolymer with transition temperature around 40°C thus opening potential real-life medical applications. In conclusion, the initial study of phase-separation/crystallinity relationship in PTMC-b-PCL-b-PTMC block copolymers lead to the discovery of novel shape memory materials with superior properties, widely demanded in modern-life applications.

Keywords: biodegradable block copolymers, organocatalytic ROP, self-assembly, shape-memory

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52 Emerging Issues for Global Impact of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) on Indian Economy

Authors: Kamlesh Shashikant Dave

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The global financial crisis is rooted in the sub-prime crisis in U.S.A. During the boom years, mortgage brokers attracted by the big commission, encouraged buyers with poor credit to accept housing mortgages with little or no down payment and without credit check. A combination of low interest rates and large inflow of foreign funds during the booming years helped the banks to create easy credit conditions for many years. Banks lent money on the assumptions that housing price would continue to rise. Also the real estate bubble encouraged the demand for houses as financial assets .Banks and financial institutions later repackaged these debts with other high risk debts and sold them to worldwide investors creating financial instruments called collateral debt obligations (CDOs). With the rise in interest rate, mortgage payments rose and defaults among the subprime category of borrowers increased accordingly. Through the securitization of mortgage payments, a recession developed in the housing sector and consequently it was transmitted to the entire US economy and rest of the world. The financial credit crisis has moved the US and the global economy into recession. Indian economy has also affected by the spill over effects of the global financial crisis. Great saving habit among people, strong fundamentals, strong conservative and regulatory regime have saved Indian economy from going out of gear, though significant parts of the economy have slowed down. Industrial activity, particularly in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors decelerated. The service sector too, slow in construction, transport, trade, communication, hotels and restaurants sub sectors. The financial crisis has some adverse impact on the IT sector. Exports had declined in absolute terms in October. Higher inputs costs and dampened demand have dented corporate margins while the uncertainty surrounding the crisis has affected business confidence. To summarize, reckless subprime lending, loose monetary policy of US, expansion of financial derivatives beyond acceptable norms and greed of Wall Street has led to this exceptional global financial and economic crisis. Thus, the global credit crisis of 2008 highlights the need to redesign both the global and domestic financial regulatory systems not only to properly address systematic risk but also to support its proper functioning (i.e financial stability).Such design requires: 1) Well managed financial institutions with effective corporate governance and risk management system 2) Disclosure requirements sufficient to support market discipline. 3)Proper mechanisms for resolving problem institution and 4) Mechanisms to protect financial services consumers in the event of financial institutions failure.

Keywords: FIIs, BSE, sensex, global impact

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51 Recent Findings of Late Bronze Age Mining and Archaeometallurgy Activities in the Mountain Region of Colchis (Southern Lechkhumi, Georgia)

Authors: Rusudan Chagelishvili, Nino Sulava, Tamar Beridze, Nana Rezesidze, Nikoloz Tatuashvili

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The South Caucasus is one of the most important centers of prehistoric metallurgy, known for its Colchian bronze culture. Modern Lechkhumi – historical Mountainous Colchis where the existence of prehistoric metallurgy is confirmed by the discovery of many artifacts is a part of this area. Studies focused on prehistoric smelting sites, related artefacts, and ore deposits have been conducted during last ten years in Lechkhumi. More than 20 prehistoric smelting sites and artefacts associated with metallurgical activities (ore roasting furnaces, slags, crucible, and tuyères fragments) have been identified so far. Within the framework of integrated studies was established that these sites were operating in 13-9 centuries B.C. and used for copper smelting. Palynological studies of slags revealed that chestnut (Castanea sativa) and hornbeam (Carpinus sp.) wood were used as smelting fuel. Geological exploration-analytical studies revealed that copper ore mining, processing, and smelting sites were distributed close to each other. Despite recent complex data, the signs of prehistoric mines (trenches) haven’t been found in this part of the study area so far. Since 2018 the archaeological-geological exploration has been focused on the southern part of Lechkhumi and covered the areas of villages Okureshi and Opitara. Several copper smelting sites (Okureshi 1 and 2, Opitara 1), as well as a Colchian Bronze culture settlement, have been identified here. Three mine workings have been found in the narrow gorge of the river Rtkhmelebisgele in the vicinities of the village Opitara. In order to establish a link between the Opitara-Okureshi archaeometallurgical sites, Late Bronze Age settlements, and mines, various scientific analytical methods -mineralized rock and slags petrography and atomic absorption spectrophotometry (AAS) analysis have been applied. The careful examination of Opitara mine workings revealed that there is a striking difference between the mine #1 on the right bank of the river and mines #2 and #3 on the left bank. The first one has all characteristic features of the Soviet period mine working (e. g. high portal with angular ribs and roof showing signs of blasting). In contrast, mines #2 and #3, which are located very close to each other, have round-shaped portals/entrances, low roofs, and fairly smooth ribs and are filled with thick layers of river sediments and collapsed weathered rock mass. A thorough review of the publications related to prehistoric mine workings revealed some striking similarities between mines #2 and #3 with their worldwide analogues. Apparently, the ore extraction from these mines was conducted by fire-setting applying primitive tools. It was also established that mines are cut in Jurassic mineralized volcanic rocks. Ore minerals (chalcopyrite, pyrite, galena) are related to calcite and quartz veins. The results obtained through the petrochemical and petrography studies of mineralized rock samples from Opitara mines and prehistoric slags are in complete correlation with each other, establishing the direct link between copper mining and smelting within the study area. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation of Georgia (grant # FR-19-13022).

Keywords: archaeometallurgy, Mountainous Colchis, mining, ore minerals

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50 Investigation of the Controversial Immunomodulatory Potential of Trichinella spiralis Excretory-Secretory Products versus Extracellular Vesicles Derived from These Products in vitro

Authors: Natasa Ilic, Alisa Gruden-Movsesijan, Maja Kosanovic, Sofija Glamoclija, Marina Bekic, Ljiljana Sofronic-Milosavljevic, Sergej Tomic

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As a very promising candidate for modulation of immune response in the sense of biasing the inflammatory towards an anti-inflammatory type of response, Trichinella spiralis infection was shown to successfully alleviate the severity of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, the animal model of human disease multiple sclerosis. This effect is achieved via its excretory-secretory muscle larvae (ES L1) products which affect the maturation status and function of dendritic cells (DCs) by inducing the tolerogenic status of DCs, which leads to the mitigation of the Th1 type of response and the activation of a regulatory type of immune response both in vitro and in vivo. ES L1 alone or via treated DCs successfully mitigated EAE in the same manner as the infection itself. On the other hand, it has been shown that T. spiralis infection slows down the tumour growth and significantly reduces the tumour size in the model of mouse melanoma, while ES L1 possesses a pro-apoptotic and anti-survival effect on melanoma cells in vitro. Hence, although the mechanisms still need to be revealed, T. spiralis infection and its ES L1 products have a bit of controversial potential to modulate both inflammatory diseases and malignancies. The recent discovery of T. spiralis extracellular vesicles (TsEVs) suggested that the induction of complex regulation of the immune response requires simultaneous delivery of different signals in nano-sized packages. This study aimed to explore whether TsEVs bare the similar potential as ES L1 to influence the status of DCs in initiation, progression and regulation of immune response, but also to investigate the effect of both ES L1 and TsEVs on myeloid derived suppressor cells (MDSC) which present the regular tumour tissue environment. TsEVs were enriched from the conditioned medium of T. spiralis muscle larvae by differential centrifugation and used for the treatment of human monocyte-derived DCs and MDSC. On DCs, TsEVs induced low expression of HLA DR and CD40, moderate CD83 and CD86, and increased expression of ILT3 and CCR7 on treated DCs, i.e., they induced tolerogenic DCs. Such DCs possess the capacity to polarize T cell immune response towards regulatory type, with an increased proportion of IL-10 and TGF-β producing cells, similarly to ES L1. These findings indicated that the ability of TsEVs to induce tolerogenic DCs favoring anti-inflammatory responses may be helpful in coping with diseases that involve Th1/Th17-, but also Th2-mediated inflammation. In MDSC in vitro model, although both ES L1 and TsEVs had the same impact on MDSC phenotype i.e., they acted suppressive, ES L1 treated MDSC, unlike TsEVs treated ones, induced T cell response characterized by the increased RoRγT and IFN-γ, while the proportion of regulatory cells was decreased followed by the decrease in IL-10 and TGF-β positive cells proportion within this population. These findings indicate the interesting ability of ES L1 to modulate T cells response via MDSC towards pro-inflamatory type, suggesting that, unlike TsEVs which consistently demonstrate the suppresive effect on inflammatory response, it could be used also for the development of new approaches aimed for the treatment of malignant diseases. Acknowledgment: This work was funded by the Promis project – Nano-MDCS-Thera, Science Fund, Republic of Serbia.

Keywords: dendritic cells, myeloid derived suppressor cells, immunomodulation, Trichinella spiralis

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49 The Potential Impact of Big Data Analytics on Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Management

Authors: Maryam Ziaee, Himanshu Shee, Amrik Sohal

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Big Data Analytics (BDA) in supply chain management has recently drawn the attention of academics and practitioners. Big data refers to a massive amount of data from different sources, in different formats, generated at high speed through transactions in business environments and supply chain networks. Traditional statistical tools and techniques find it difficult to analyse this massive data. BDA can assist organisations to capture, store, and analyse data specifically in the field of supply chain. Currently, there is a paucity of research on BDA in the pharmaceutical supply chain context. In this research, the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain was selected as the case study. This industry is highly significant since the right medicine must reach the right patients, at the right time, in right quantity, in good condition, and at the right price to save lives. However, drug shortages remain a substantial problem for hospitals across Australia with implications on patient care, staff resourcing, and expenditure. Furthermore, a massive volume and variety of data is generated at fast speed from multiple sources in pharmaceutical supply chain, which needs to be captured and analysed to benefit operational decisions at every stage of supply chain processes. As the pharmaceutical industry lags behind other industries in using BDA, it raises the question of whether the use of BDA can improve transparency among pharmaceutical supply chain by enabling the partners to make informed-decisions across their operational activities. This presentation explores the impacts of BDA on supply chain management. An exploratory qualitative approach was adopted to analyse data collected through interviews. This study also explores the BDA potential in the whole pharmaceutical supply chain rather than focusing on a single entity. Twenty semi-structured interviews were undertaken with top managers in fifteen organisations (five pharmaceutical manufacturers, five wholesalers/distributors, and five public hospital pharmacies) to investigate their views on the use of BDA. The findings revealed that BDA can enable pharmaceutical entities to have improved visibility over the whole supply chain and also the market; it enables entities, especially manufacturers, to monitor consumption and the demand rate in real-time and make accurate demand forecasts which reduce drug shortages. Timely and precise decision-making can allow the entities to source and manage their stocks more effectively. This can likely address the drug demand at hospitals and respond to unanticipated issues such as drug shortages. Earlier studies explore BDA in the context of clinical healthcare; however, this presentation investigates the benefits of BDA in the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain. Furthermore, this research enhances managers’ insight into the potentials of BDA at every stage of supply chain processes and helps to improve decision-making in their supply chain operations. The findings will turn the rhetoric of data-driven decision into a reality where the managers may opt for analytics for improved decision-making in the supply chain processes.

Keywords: big data analytics, data-driven decision, pharmaceutical industry, supply chain management

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48 Identification of Electric Energy Storage Acceptance Types: Empirical Findings from the German Manufacturing Industry

Authors: Dominik Halstrup, Marlene Schriever

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The industry, as one of the main energy consumer, is of critical importance along the way of transforming the energy system to Renewable Energies. The distributed character of the Energy Transition demands for further flexibility being introduced to the grid. In order to shed further light on the acceptance of Electric Energy Storage (ESS) from an industrial point of view, this study therefore examines the German manufacturing industry. The analysis in this paper uses data composed of a survey amongst 101 manufacturing companies in Germany. Being part of a two-stage research design, both qualitative and quantitative data was collected. Based on a literature review an acceptance concept was developed in the paper and four user-types identified: (Dedicated) User, Impeded User, Forced User and (Dedicated) Non-User and incorporated in the questionnaire. Both descriptive and bivariate analysis is deployed to identify the level of acceptance in the different organizations. After a factor analysis has been conducted, variables were grouped to form independent acceptance factors. Out of the 22 organizations that do show a positive attitude towards ESS, 5 have already implemented ESS and show a positive attitude towards ESS. They can be therefore considered ‘Dedicated Users’. The remaining 17 organizations have a positive attitude but have not implemented ESS yet. The results suggest that profitability plays an important role as well as load-management systems that are already in place. Surprisingly, 2 organizations have implemented ESS even though they have a negative attitude towards it. This is an example for a ‘Forced User’ where reasons of overriding importance or supporters with overriding authority might have forced the company to implement ESS. By far the biggest subset of the sample shows (critical) distance and can therefore be considered ‘(Dedicated) Non-Users’. The results indicate that the majority of the respondents have not thought ESS in their own organization through yet. For the majority of the sample one can therefore not speak of critical distance but rather a distance due to insufficient information and the perceived unprofitability. This paper identifies the relative state of acceptance of ESS in the manufacturing industry as well as current reasons for hindrance and perspectives for future growth of ESS in an industrial setting from a policy level. The interest that is currently generated by the media could be channeled and taken into a more substantial and individual discussion about ESS in an industrial setting. If the current perception of profitability could be addressed and communicated accordingly, ESS and their use in for instance cooperative business models could become a topic for more organizations in Germany and other parts of the world. As price mechanisms tend to favor existing technologies, policy makers need to further access the use of ESS and acknowledge the positive effects when integrated in an energy system. The subfields of generation, transmission and distribution become increasingly intertwined. New technologies and business models, such as ESS or cooperative arrangements entering the market, increase the number of stakeholders. Organizations need to find their place within this array of stakeholders.

Keywords: acceptance, energy storage solutions, German energy transition, manufacturing industry

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47 The Influence of Fashion Bloggers on the Pre-Purchase Decision for Online Fashion Products among Generation Y Female Malaysian Consumers

Authors: Mohd Zaimmudin Mohd Zain, Patsy Perry, Lee Quinn

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This study explores how fashion consumers are influenced by fashion bloggers towards pre-purchase decision for online fashion products in a non-Western context. Malaysians rank among the world’s most avid online shoppers, with apparel the third most popular purchase category. However, extant research on fashion blogging focuses on the developed Western market context. Numerous international fashion retailers have entered the Malaysian market from luxury to fast fashion segments of the market; however Malaysian fashion consumers must balance religious and social norms for modesty with their dress style and adoption of fashion trends. Consumers increasingly mix and match Islamic and Western elements of dress to create new styles enabling them to follow Western fashion trends whilst paying respect to social and religious norms. Social media have revolutionised the way that consumers can search for and find information about fashion products. For online fashion brands with no physical presence, social media provide a means of discovery for consumers. By allowing the creation and exchange of user-generated content (UGC) online, they provide a public forum that gives individual consumers their own voices, as well as access to product information that facilitates their purchase decisions. Social media empower consumers and brands have important roles in facilitating conversations among consumers and themselves, to help consumers connect with them and one another. Fashion blogs have become an important fashion information sources. By sharing their personal style and inspiring their followers with what they wear on popular social media platforms such as Instagram, fashion bloggers have become fashion opinion leaders. By creating UGC to spread useful information to their followers, they influence the pre-purchase decision. Hence, successful Western fashion bloggers such as Chiara Ferragni may earn millions of US dollars every year, and some have created their own fashion ranges and beauty products, become judges in fashion reality shows, won awards, and collaborated with high street and luxury brands. As fashion blogging has become more established worldwide, increasing numbers of fashion bloggers have emerged from non-Western backgrounds to promote Islamic fashion styles, such as Hassanah El-Yacoubi and Dian Pelangi. This study adopts a qualitative approach using netnographic content analysis of consumer comments on two famous Malaysian fashion bloggers’ Instagram accounts during January-March 2016 and qualitative interviews with 16 Malaysian Generation Y fashion consumers during September-October 2016. Netnography adapts ethnographic techniques to the study of online communities or computer-mediated communications. Template analysis of the data involved coding comments according to the theoretical framework, which was developed from the literature review. Initial data analysis shows the strong influence of Malaysian fashion bloggers on their followers in terms of lifestyle and morals as well as fashion style. Followers were guided towards the mix and match trend of dress with Western and Islamic elements, for example, showing how vivid colours or accessories could be worked into an outfit whilst still respecting social and religious norms. The blogger’s Instagram account is a form of online community where followers can communicate and gain guidance and support from other followers, as well as from the blogger.

Keywords: fashion bloggers, Malaysia, qualitative, social media

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46 An Agent-Based Approach to Examine Interactions of Firms for Investment Revival

Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

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One conundrum that macroeconomic theory faces is to explain how an economy can revive from depression, in which the aggregate demand has fallen substantially below its productive capacity. This paper examines an autonomous stabilizing mechanism using an agent-based Wicksell-Keynes macroeconomic model. This paper focuses on the effects of the number of firms and the length of the gestation period for investment that are often assumed to be one in a mainstream macroeconomic model. The simulations found the virtual economy was highly unstable, or more precisely, collapsing when these parameters are fixed at one. This finding may even suggest us to question the legitimacy of these common assumptions. A perpetual decline in capital stock will eventually encourage investment if the capital stock is short-lived because an inactive investment will result in insufficient productive capacity. However, for an economy characterized by a roundabout production method, a gradual decline in productive capacity may not be able to fall below the aggregate demand that is also shrinking. Naturally, one would then ask if our economy cannot rely on an external stimulus such as population growth and technological progress to revive investment, what factors would provide such a buoyancy for stimulating investments? The current paper attempts to answer this question by employing the artificial macroeconomic model mentioned above. The baseline model has the following three features: (1) the multi-period gestation for investment, (2) a large number of heterogeneous firms, (3) demand-constrained firms. The instability is a consequence of the following dynamic interactions. (a) A multiple-period gestation period means that once a firm starts a new investment, it continues to invest over some subsequent periods. During these gestation periods, the excess demand created by the investing firm will spill over to ignite new investment of other firms that are supplying investment goods: the presence of multi-period gestation for investment provides a field for investment interactions. Conversely, the excess demand for investment goods tends to fade away before it develops into a full-fledged boom if the gestation period of investment is short. (b) A strong demand in the goods market tends to raise the price level, thereby lowering real wages. This reduction of real wages creates two opposing effects on the aggregate demand through the following two channels: (1) a reduction in the real labor income, and (2) an increase in the labor demand due to the principle of equality between the marginal labor productivity and real wage (referred as the Walrasian labor demand). If there is only a single firm, a lower real wage will increase its Walrasian labor demand, thereby an actual labor demand tends to be determined by the derived labor demand. Thus, the second positive effect would not work effectively. In contrast, for an economy with a large number of firms, Walrasian firms will increase employment. This interaction among heterogeneous firms is a key for stability. A single firm cannot expect the benefit of such an increased aggregate demand from other firms.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, demand constraint, gestation period, representative agent model, stability

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