Search results for: price compensation mechanism

Authors: Isabel Mousinho de Figueiredo

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Traditionally it was held that the king can do no wrong. History has proved otherwise, and both the rule of law and the open society call for a diversification of checks and balances, including civil liability in tort. Most jurisdictions are right to fear the excessive cost of such liability for the innocent taxpayer. There are notwithstanding extreme instances where refusing compensation is perceived to be outrageous. Many public bodies end up handing out on a voluntary basis, which leaves room to question its legality and merit. Instead, some criteria can shed light on the fairness of an underlying rationale of such compensation and cordon it off within reasonable limits.

Keywords: comparative law, liability of legislators, public bodies, tort law

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

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Authors: The Danh Phan

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House price forecasting is a main topic in the real estate market research. Effective house price prediction models could not only allow home buyers and real estate agents to make better data-driven decisions but may also be beneficial for the property policymaking process. This study investigates the housing market by using machine learning techniques to analyze real historical house sale transactions in Australia. It seeks useful models which could be deployed as an application for house buyers and sellers. Data analytics show a high discrepancy between the house price in the most expensive suburbs and the most affordable suburbs in the city of Melbourne. In addition, experiments demonstrate that the combination of Stepwise and Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the Mean Squared Error (MSE) measurement, consistently outperforms other models in terms of prediction accuracy.

Keywords: house price prediction, regression trees, neural network, support vector machine, stepwise

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Authors: Medani Prasad Rijal

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The study outlines the impacts of decentralized forest policy on natural Sal (shorea robusta) forests in the Terai region of Nepal. The government has implemented community forestry program to manage the forest resources and improve the livelihood of local people collectively. The forest management authorities such as conserve, manage, develop and use of forest resources were shifted to the local communities, however, the ownership right of the forestland retained by the government. Local communities took the decision on harvesting, distribution, and sell of forest products by fixing the prices independently. The local communities were putting the low value of forest products and distributed among the user households on the name of collective decision. The decision of low valuation is devaluating the worth of forest products. Therefore, the study hypothesized that decision-making capacities are equally prominent next to the decentralized policy and program formulation. To accomplish the study, individual to group level discussions and questionnaire survey methods were applied with executive committee members and user households. The study revealed that the local intuition called Community Forest User Group (CFUG) committee normally took the decisions on consensus basis. Considering to the access and affording capacity of user households having poor economic backgrounds, low pricing mechanism of forest products has been practiced, even though the Sal timber is far expensive in the local market. The local communities thought that low pricing mechanism is accessible to all user households from poor to better off households. However, the analysis of forest products distribution opposed the assumption as most of the Sal timber, which is the most valuable forest product of community forest only purchased by the limited households of better economic conditions. Since the Terai region is heterogeneous by socio-economic conditions, better off households always have higher affording capacity and possibility of taking higher timber benefits because of low price mechanism. On the other hand, the minimum price rate of forest products has poor contribution in community fund collection. Consequently, it has poor support to carry out poverty alleviation activities to poor people. The local communities have been fixed Sal timber price rate around three times cheaper than normal market price, which is a strong evidence of forest product devaluation itself. Finally, the study concluded that the capacity building of local executives as the decision-makers of natural Sal forests is equally indispensable next to the policy and program formulation for effective decentralized forest management. Unilateral decentralized forest policy may devaluate the forest products rather than devolve of power to the local communities and empower to them.

Keywords: community forestry program, decentralized forest policy, Nepal, Sal forests, Terai

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Authors: Shaukat Ali, Kanber Sedef, Mustafa Yilmaz

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This work analyzes a finger mechanism for a prosthetic hand that will help in improving the living standards of people who have lost their hands for a variety of reasons. The finger mechanism is single degree of freedom and hence has advantages such as compact size, reduced mass and less energy consumption. The proposed finger mechanism is a six bar linkage actuated by a single motor. The kinematic, static and dynamic analyses have been done by using the conventional methods of mechanism analysis. The kinematic results present the motion of the proposed finger mechanism and location of the fingertip. The static and dynamic analyses provide the useful information about the gripping force at the fingertip for various configurations and the selection of motor that will move the finger over its range of configuration. This single motor finger mechanism is simple and resembles the human finger’s motion suitable for grasping operation. This study can be used in the optimization of geometrical parameters of the proposed mechanism to obtain the desired configurations with minimum torque and enhanced griping.

Keywords: dynamics, finger mechanism, grasping, kinematics

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Authors: Anwar Hussain, Ahmed Imran, Farida Faisal, Fatima Sultana

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The present research evaluates a comparative assessment of dividend policy and share price across the South Asian countries including Pakistan, India and Sri-Lanka over the period of 2010 to 2014. Academic writers found that dividend policy and share price relationship is not same in south Asian market due to different reasons. Moreover, Panel Models used = for the evaluation of current study. In addition, Redundant fixed effect Likelihood and Hausman test used for determine of Common, Fixed and Random effect model. Therefore Indian market dividend policies play a fundamental role and significant impact on Market Share Prices. Although, present research found that different as compared to previous study that dividend policy have no impact on share price in Sri-Lanka and Pakistan.

Keywords: dividend policy, share price, South Asian countries, panel data analysis, theories and parameters of dividend

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Authors: Kolawole Oyekan Jamiu

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In Nigerian criminal law, a victim of an offence plays little or no role in the prosecution of an offender. The state concentrates only on imposing punishment on the offender while the victims of crime and abuse of power by security agencies are abandoned without any compensation either from the State or the offender. It has been stated that the victim of crime is the forgotten man in our criminal justice system. He sets the criminal law in motion but then goes into oblivion. Our present criminal law does not recognise the right of the victim to take part in the prosecution of the case or his right to compensation. The victim is merely a witness in a state versus case. This paper examines the meaning of the phrase ‘the victims of crime and abuse of power’. It needs to be noted that there is no definition of these two categories of victims in any statute in Nigeria. The paper also considers the United Nations General Assembly Declaration of Basic Principle of Justice for Victims and abuse of power. This declaration was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on the 25th of November 1985. The declaration contains copious provisions on compensation for the victims of crime and abuse of power. Unfortunately, the declaration is not, in itself a legally binding instrument and has been given little or no attention since the coming into effect in1985. This paper examines the role of the judiciary in ensuring that victims of crime and abuse of power in Nigeria are compensated. While some Judges found it difficult to award damages to victims of abuse of power others have given some landmark rulings and awarded substantial damages. The criminal justice ( victim’s remedies) Bill shall also be examined. The Bill comprises of 74 sections and it spelt out the procedures for compensating the victims of crime and abuse of power in Nigeria. Finally, the paper also examines the practicability of awarding damages to victims of crime whether the offender is convicted or not and in addition, the possibility of granting all equitable remedies available in civil cases to victims of crime and abuse of power so that the victims will be restored to the earlier position before the crime.

Keywords: compensation, damages, restitution, victims

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Authors: Jair Servín-Aguilar, Yu Tang

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We address the problem of robust attitude tracking for agile satellites under unknown bounded torque disturbances using a double-gimbal variable-speed control-moment gyro (DGVSCMG) driven by a cluster of three permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs). Uniform practical asymptotic stability is achieved at the torque control level first. The desired speed of gimbals and the acceleration of the spin wheel to produce the required torque are then calculated by a velocity-based steering law and tracked at the PMSM speed-control level by designing a speed-tracking controller with compensation for the vibration caused by eccentricity and imbalance due to mechanical imperfection in the DGVSCMG. Uniform practical asymptotic stability of the overall system is ensured by loan relying on the analysis of the resulting cascaded system. Numerical simulations are included to show the performance improvement of the proposed controller.

Keywords: agile satellites, vibration compensation, internal model, stability

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Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

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Authors: Weiping Liu

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This paper presents an equation to calculate stock prices of different growth model. This equation is mathematically derived by using discounted cash flow method. It has the advantages of being very easy to use and very accurate. It can still be used even when the first stage is lengthy. This equation is more generalized because it can be used for all the three popular stock price models. It can be programmed into financial calculator or electronic spreadsheets. In addition, it can be extended to a multistage model. It is more versatile and efficient than the traditional methods.

Keywords: stock price, multistage model, different growth model, discounted cash flow method

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Authors: Ying Guo, Miaochan Li, David Yang, Xiao-Yan Li

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This paper examines the relevance of accounting information to stock prices at different periods using manufacturing companies listed in China’s Growth Enterprise Market (GEM). We find that both the average stock price at fiscal year-end and the average stock price one month after fiscal year-end are more relevant to the accounting information than the closing stock price four months after fiscal year-end. This implies that Chinese stock markets react before the public disclosure of accounting information, which may be due to information leak before official announcements. Our findings confirm that accounting information is relevant to stock prices for Chinese listed manufacturing companies, which is a critical question to answer for investors who have interest in Chinese companies.

Keywords: accounting information, response time, value relevance, stock price

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Authors: Ying Han, Yuanxiang Chen, Yongtao Huang, Jia Fu, Kaile Li, Shangjing Lin, Jianguo Yu

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In long-haul and high-speed optical transmission system, the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal suffers various linear and non-linear impairments. In recent years, researchers have proposed compensation schemes for specific impairment, and the effects are remarkable. However, different impairment compensation algorithms have caused an increase in transmission delay. With the widespread application of deep neural networks (DNN) in communication, multi-impairment compensation based on DNN will be a promising scheme. In this paper, we propose and apply DNN to compensate multi-impairment of 16-QAM coherent optical OFDM signal, thereby improving the performance of the transmission system. The trained DNN models are applied in the offline digital signal processing (DSP) module of the transmission system. The models can optimize the constellation mapping signals at the transmitter and compensate multi-impairment of the OFDM decoded signal at the receiver. Furthermore, the models reduce the peak to average power ratio (PAPR) of the transmitted OFDM signal and the bit error rate (BER) of the received signal. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme for 16-QAM Coherent Optical OFDM signal and demonstrate and analyze transmission performance in different transmission scenarios. The experimental results show that the PAPR and BER of the transmission system are significantly reduced after using the trained DNN. It shows that the DNN with specific loss function and network structure can optimize the transmitted signal and learn the channel feature and compensate for multi-impairment in fiber transmission effectively.

Keywords: coherent optical OFDM, deep neural network, multi-impairment compensation, optical transmission

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Authors: Bojan Radisic, Katarina Stavlic

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The paper describes two economics terms consumer surplus and producer surplus using the definite integrals (the Riemann integral). The consumer surplus is the difference between what consumers are willing to pay and actual price. The producer surplus is the difference between what producers selling at the current price, rather than at the price they would have been are willing to accept. Using the definite integrals describe terms and mathematical formulas of the consumer surplus and the producer surplus and will be applied to the numerical examples.

Keywords: consumer surplus, producer surplus, definite integral, integration

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Authors: Christopher Latella, Ashlee M. Hendy, Dan Vander Westhuizen, Wei-Peng Teo

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Introduction: Neural adaptations following resistance training interventions have been widely investigated, however the evidence regarding the mechanisms of early adaptation are less clear. Understanding neural responses from an acute resistance training session is pivotal in the prescription of frequency, intensity and volume in applied strength and conditioning practice. Therefore the primary aim of this study was to investigate the time course of neurophysiological mechanisms post training against current super compensation theory, and secondly, to examine whether these responses reflect neural adaptations observed with resistance training interventions. Methods: Participants (N=14) completed a randomised, counterbalanced crossover study comparing; control, strength and hypertrophy conditions. The strength condition involved 3 x 5RM leg extensions with 3min recovery, while the hypertrophy condition involved 3 x 12 RM with 60s recovery. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and peripheral nerve stimulation were used to measure excitability of the central and peripheral neural pathways, and maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) to quantify strength changes. Measures were taken pre, immediately post, 10, 20 and 30 mins and 1, 2, 6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hrs following training. Results: Significant decreases were observed at post, 10, 20, 30 min, 1 and 2 hrs for both training groups compared to control group for force, (p <.05), maximal compound wave; (p < .005), silent period; (p < .05). A significant increase in corticospinal excitability; (p < .005) was observed for both groups. Corticospinal excitability between strength and hypertrophy groups was near significance, with a large effect (η2= .202). All measures returned to baseline within 6 hrs post training. Discussion: Neurophysiological mechanisms appear to be significantly altered in the period 2 hrs post training, returning to homeostasis by 6 hrs. The evidence suggests that the time course of neural recovery post resistance training occurs 18-40 hours shorter than previous super compensation models. Strength and hypertrophy protocols showed similar response profiles with current findings suggesting greater post training corticospinal drive from hypertrophy training, despite previous evidence that strength training requires greater neural input. The increase in corticospinal drive and decrease inl inhibition appear to be a compensatory mechanism for decreases in peripheral nerve excitability and maximal voluntary force output. The changes in corticospinal excitability and inhibition are akin to adaptive processes observed with training interventions of 4 wks or longer. It appears that the 2 hr recovery period post training is the most influential for priming further neural adaptations with resistance training. Secondly, the frequency of prescribed resistance sessions can be scheduled closer than previous super compensation theory for optimal strength gains.

Keywords: neural responses, resistance training, super compensation, transcranial magnetic stimulation

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Authors: Ioana Neamtu

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This paper investigates the potential for demand-side management for the system price in the Nordic electricity market and the price effects of introducing wind-power into the system. The model proposed accounts for the micro-structure of the Nordic electricity market by modeling each hour individually, while still accounting for the relationship between the hours within a day. This flexibility allows us to explore the differences between peak and shoulder demand hours. Preliminary results show potential for demand response management, as indicated by the price elasticity of demand as well as a small but statistically significant decrease in price, given by the wind power penetration. Moreover, our study shows that these effects are stronger during day-time and peak hours,compared to night-time and shoulder hours.

Keywords: structural model, GMM estimation, system of equations, electricity market

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Authors: Jefferson Hernandez, Juan Padilla

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Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: price elasticity, volume, correlation structures, Bayesian models

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Authors: Tung-Hui Hsu, Wen-Yuh Jywe

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Five-axis computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools (three linear and two rotary axes) are ideally suited to the fabrication of complex work pieces, such as dies, turbo blades, and cams. The locations of the axis average line and centerline of the rotary axes strongly influence the performance of these machines; however, techniques to compensate for eccentric error in the rotary axes remain weak. This paper proposes optical (Non-Bar) techniques capable of calibrating five-axis CNC machine tools and compensating for eccentric error in the rotary axes. This approach employs the measurement path in ISO/CD 10791-6 to determine the eccentric error in two rotary axes, for which compensatory measures can be implemented. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed techniques can improve the performance of various five-axis CNC machine tools by more than 90%. Finally, a result of the cutting test using a B-type five-axis CNC machine tool confirmed to the usefulness of this proposed compensation technique.

Keywords: calibration, compensation, rotary axis, five-axis computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools, eccentric error, optical calibration system, ISO/CD 10791-6

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Authors: M. Stoklasa, H. Starzyczna, K. Matusinska

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This article deals with the perceived quality of regional products in the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic. Research was focused on finding out what do consumers perceive as a quality product and what characteristics make a quality product. The data were obtained by questionnaire survey and analysed by IBM SPSS. From the thousands of respondents the representative sample of 719 for MS region was created based on demographic factors of gender, age, education and income. The research analysis disclosed that consumers in MS region are still price oriented and that the preference of quality over price does not depend on regional brand knowledge.

Keywords: regional brands, quality products, characteristics of quality, quality over price

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

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Authors: Yaser Miaji, Mohammed Aloryani

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The rise of recent applications in everyday implementation like videoconferencing, online recreation and voice speech communication leads to pressing the need for novel mechanism and policy to serve this steep improvement within the application itself and users‟ wants. This diversity in web traffics needs some classification and prioritization of the traffics since some traffics merit abundant attention with less delay and loss, than others. This research is intended to reinforce the mechanism by analysing the performance in application according to the proposed mechanism implemented. The mechanism used is quite direct and analytical. The mechanism is implemented by modifying the queue limit in the algorithm.

Keywords: traffic classification, IPv6, internet, application categorization

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Authors: Han Guan Chew, Keith Yong Ngee Ng, Shan-Wei Fan

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In Singapore, talent retention is one of the most persistent and real issue companies have to grapple with due to the tight labour market. Being resource-scarce, Singapore depends solely on its talented pool of high quality human resource to sustain its competitive advantage in the global economy. But the complex and multifaceted nature of turnover phenomenon makes the prescription of effective talent retention strategies in such a competitive labour market very challenging, especially when it comes to monetary incentives, companies struggle to answer the question of “How much is enough?” By examining the interactive effects of perceived alternative employment opportunities, annual salary and satisfaction with compensation on the turnover intention of 102 Singapore Professionals, Managers, Executives and Technicians (PMET) through correlation analyses and multiple regressions, important insights into the psyche of the Singapore talent pool can be drawn. It is found that annual salary influence turnover intention indirectly through mediation and moderation effects on PMET’s satisfaction on compensation. PMET are also found to be heavily swayed by better external opportunities. This implies that talent retention strategies should not adopt a purely monetary based blanket approach but rather a comprehensive and holistic one that considers the dynamics of prevailing market conditions.

Keywords: employee turnover, high performers, knowledge workers, perceived alternative employment opportunities salary, satisfaction on compensation, Singapore PMET, talent retention

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Authors: Katerina Kormusheva

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Pricing plays a pivotal role in the marketing discipline as it directly influences consumer perceptions, purchase decisions, and overall market positioning of a product or service. This paper seeks to expand current knowledge in the area of discriminatory and differential pricing, a main area of marketing research. The methodology includes developing a framework and a model for determining how many price points to implement in differential pricing. We focus on choosing the levels of differentiation, derive a function form of the model framework proposed, and lastly, test it empirically with data from a large-scale marketing pricing experiment of services in telecommunications.

Keywords: marketing, differential pricing, price points, optimization

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Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Abdulla D. Alblooshi

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The stock market is a representation of human behavior and psychology, such as fear, greed, and discipline. Those are manifested in the form of price movements during the trading sessions. Therefore, predicting the stock movement and prices is a challenging effort. However, those trading sessions produce a large amount of data that can be utilized to train an AI agent for the purpose of predicting the stock movement. Predicting the stock market price action will be advantageous. In this paper, the stock movement data of three DFM listed stocks are studied using historical price movements and technical indicators value and used to train an agent using KNN and SVM methods to predict the future price movement. MATLAB Toolbox and a simple script is written to process and classify the information and output the prediction. It will also compare the different learning methods and parameters s using metrics like RMSE, MAE, and R².

Keywords: KNN, ANN, style, SVM, stocks, technical indicators, RSI, MACD, moving averages, RMSE, MAE

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Authors: Muhammad Abdullah Arafat, Nahrin Nowrose

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Wireless charging of electric vehicles is becoming more and more attractive as large amount of power can now be transferred to a reasonable distance using magnetic resonance coupling method. However, proper tuning of the compensation network is required to achieve maximum power transmission. Due to the variation of coil distance from the nominal value as a result of change in tire condition, change in weight or uneven road condition, the tuning of the compensation network has become challenging. In this paper, a tuning method has been described to determine the optimum values of the compensation network in order to maximize the average output power. The simulation results show that 5.2 percent increase in average output power is obtained for 10 percent variation in coupling coefficient using the optimum values without the need of additional space and electro-mechanical components. The proposed method is applicable to both static and dynamic charging of electric vehicles.

Keywords: coupling coefficient, electric vehicles, magnetic resonance coupling, tuning capacitor, wireless power transfer

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, turkey

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Authors: Kaoutar Abbahaddou, Mohammed Salah Chiadmi

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The need to find a relevant way to predict the next-day price of a stock index is a real concern for many financial stakeholders and researchers. We have known across years the proliferation of several methods. Nevertheless, among all these methods, the most controversial one is a machine learning algorithm that claims to be reliable, namely neural networks. Thus, the purpose of this article is to study the prediction power of neural networks in the particular case of Islamic finance as it is an under-looked area. In this article, we will first briefly present a review of the literature regarding neural networks and Islamic finance. Next, we present the architecture and principles of artificial neural networks most commonly used in finance. Then, we will show its empirical application on two Islamic stock indexes. The accuracy rate would be used to measure the performance of the algorithm in predicting the right price the next day. As a result, we can conclude that artificial neural networks are a reliable method to predict the next-day price for Islamic indices as it is claimed for conventional ones.

Keywords: Islamic finance, stock price prediction, artificial neural networks, machine learning

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

Abstract:

The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Muhammad Younas, Sidra Sawati, M. Razzaq Athar

Abstract:

Organizational development history reveals that it has ever been a challenge to identify and fathom the role of talent management, career development and compensation management towards employees’ retention and organizational performance. Organizations strive hard to measure the impact of all those factors which affect employee retention and organizational performance. Researchers have worked in great deal in order to know the relationship of independent variables i.e. Talent Management, Career Development and Compensation Management on dependent variables i.e. Employee Retention and Organizational Performance. Employees adorned with latest skills with long lasting loyalty play a significant role towards successful achievement of short term as well as long term goals of the organizations. Retention of valuable and resourceful employees for a longer time is equally essential for meeting the set goals. The organizations which spend reasonable chunk of their resources for taking such measures that help to retain their employees through talent management and satisfactory career development always enjoy a competitive edge over their competitors. Human resource is regarded as one of the most precious and difficult resource to management. It has its own needs and requirement. It becomes an easy prey to monotony when lacks career development. Wants and aspirations of this resource are seldom met completely but can be managed through career development and compensation management. In this era of competition, organizations have to take viable steps to management their resources especially human resource. Top management and Managers keep on working for an amenable solution in order to address the challenges relating career development and compensation management as their ultimate goal is to ensure the organizational performance on optimum level. The current study was conducted to examine the impact of Talent Management, Career Development and Compensation Management towards Employees Retention and Organizational Performance with mediating effect of Employees Motivation in Service Sector of Pakistan. The current study is based on Resource Based View (RBV) and Ability Motivation Opportunity (AMO) theories. It explains that by increasing internal resources we can manage employee talent, career development through compensation management and employee motivation more effectively. It will result in effective execution of HRM practices for employee retention enabling an organization to achieve and sustain competitive advantage through optimal performance. Data collection was made through a structured questionnaire which was based upon adopted instruments after testing reliability and validity. A total 300 employees of 30 firms in service sector of Pakistan were sampled through non-probability sampling technique. Regression analysis revealed that talent management, career development and compensation management have significant positive impact on employee retention and perceived organizational performance. The results further showed that employee motivation have a significant mediating effect on employee retention and organizational performance. The interpretation of the findings and limitations, theoretical and managerial implications are also discussed.

Keywords: career development, compensation management, employee retention, organizational performance, talent management

Procedia PDF Downloads 290