Search results for: predictive insights

Authors: Ayoub Moufid, Najib Bennis, Soumia El Hani

Abstract:

The objective of greenhouse climate control is to improve the culture development and to minimize the production costs. A greenhouse is an open system to external environment and the challenge is to regulate the internal climate despite the strong meteorological disturbances. The internal state of greenhouse considered in this work is defined by too relevant and coupled variables, namely inside temperature and hygrometry. These two variables are chosen to describe the internal state of greenhouses due to their importance in the development of plants and their sensitivity to external climatic conditions, sources of weather disturbances. A multivariable model is proposed and validated by considering a greenhouse as black-box system and the least square method is applied to parameters identification basing on collected experimental measures. To regulate the internal climate, we propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme. This one considers the measured meteorological disturbances and the physical and operational constraints on the control and state variables. A successful feasibility study of the proposed controller is presented, and simulation results show good performances despite the high interaction between internal and external variables and the strong external meteorological disturbances. The inside temperature and hygrometry are tracking nearly the desired trajectories. A comparison study with an On/Off control applied to the same greenhouse confirms the efficiency of the MPC approach to inside climate control.

Keywords: climate control, constraints, identification, greenhouse, model predictive control, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Tania Vasquez Mata, Luis A. Herrera, Cristian Arriaga Canon

Abstract:

Background: Locally advanced breast cancer of the luminal B phenotype, poses challenges due to its variable response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. A predictive biomarker is needed to identify patients who will not respond to treatment, allowing for alternative therapies. This study aims to validate the use of the lncRNA GATA3-AS1, as a predictive biomarker using RNA in situ hybridization. Research aim: The aim of this study is to determine if GATA3-AS1 can serve as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer. Methodology: The study utilizes RNA in situ hybridization with predesigned probes for GATA3-AS1 on Formalin-Fixed Paraffin-Embedded tissue sections. The samples underwent pretreatment and protease treatment to enable probe penetration. Chromogenic detection and signal evaluation were performed using specific criteria. Findings: Patients who did not respond to neoadjuvant chemotherapy showed a 3+ score for GATA3-AS1, while those who had a complete response had a 1+ score. Theoretical importance: This study demonstrates the potential clinical utility of GATA3-AS1 as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Identifying non-responders early on can help avoid unnecessary treatment and explore alternative therapy options. Data collection and analysis procedures: Tissue samples from patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer were collected and processed using RNA in situ hybridization. Signal evaluation was conducted under a microscope, and scoring was based on specific criteria. Questions addressed: Can GATA3-AS1 serve as a predictive biomarker for neoadjuvant chemotherapy response in locally advanced luminal B breast cancer? Conclusion: The lncRNA GATA3-AS1 can be used as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer. Its identification through RNA in situ hybridization of tissue obtained from the initial biopsy can aid in treatment decision-making.

Keywords: biomarkers, breast neoplasms, genetics, neoadjuvant therapy, tumor

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Sadiq J. Abou-Loukh, Hanan M. Habbi

Abstract:

This paper presents a steganography to hide the transmitted information without excite suspicious and also illustrates the level of secrecy that can be increased by using cryptography techniques. The proposed system has been implemented firstly by encrypted image file one time pad key and secondly encrypted message that hidden to perform encryption followed by image embedding. Then the new image file will be created from the original image by using four triangles operation, the new image is processed by one of two image processing techniques. The proposed two processing techniques are thresholding and differential predictive coding (DPC). Afterwards, encryption or decryption keys are generated by functional key generator. The generator key is used one time only. Encrypted text will be hidden in the places that are not used for image processing and key generation system has high embedding rate (0.1875 character/pixel) for true color image (24 bit depth).

Keywords: encryption, thresholding, differential predictive coding, four triangles operation

Procedia PDF Downloads 463

Authors: Y. Mehdipour, S. Ebrahimi, A. Jahanpour, F. Seyedzaei, B. Sabayan, A. Karimi, H. Amirifard

Abstract:

Ischemic stroke is one of the common reasons for disability and mortality. The fourth leading cause of death in the world and the third in some other sources. Only 1/3 of the patients with ischemic stroke fully recover, 1/3 of them end in permanent disability and 1/3 face death. Thus, the use of predictive models to predict stroke has a vital role in reducing the complications and costs related to this disease. Thus, the aim of this study was to specify the effective factors and predict ischemic stroke with the help of DM methods. The present study was a descriptive-analytic study. The population was 213 cases from among patients referring to Ali ibn Abi Talib (AS) Hospital in Zahedan. Data collection tool was a checklist with the validity and reliability confirmed. This study used DM algorithms of decision tree for modeling. Data analysis was performed using SPSS-19 and SPSS Modeler 14.2. The results of the comparison of algorithms showed that CHAID algorithm with 95.7% accuracy has the best performance. Moreover, based on the model created, factors such as anemia, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, transient ischemic attacks, coronary artery disease, and atherosclerosis are the most effective factors in stroke. Decision tree algorithms, especially CHAID algorithm, have acceptable precision and predictive ability to determine the factors affecting ischemic stroke. Thus, by creating predictive models through this algorithm, will play a significant role in decreasing the mortality and disability caused by ischemic stroke.

Keywords: data mining, ischemic stroke, decision tree, Bayesian network

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Theoktisti Makridou, Konstantinos Tsaprailis, George Arvanitakis, Charalampos Kontoes

Abstract:

In the literature, the data-driven approaches for mosquito abundance prediction relaying on supervised machine learning models that get trained with historical in-situ measurements. The counterpart of this approach is once the model gets trained on pointlevel (specific x,y coordinates) measurements, the predictions of the model refer again to point-level. These point-level predictions reduce the applicability of those solutions once a lot of early warning and mitigation actions applications need predictions for an area level, such as a municipality, village, etc... In this study, we apply a data-driven predictive model, which relies on public-open satellite Earth Observation and geospatial data and gets trained with historical point-level in-Situ measurements of mosquito abundance. Then we propose a methodology to extract information from a point-level predictive model to a broader area-level prediction. Our methodology relies on the randomly spatial sampling of the area of interest (similar to the Poisson hardcore process), obtaining the EO and geomorphological information for each sample, doing the point-wise prediction for each sample, and aggregating the predictions to represent the average mosquito abundance of the area. We quantify the performance of the transformation from the pointlevel to the area-level predictions, and we analyze it in order to understand which parameters have a positive or negative impact on it. The goal of this study is to propose a methodology that predicts the mosquito abundance of a given area by relying on point-level prediction and to provide qualitative insights regarding the expected performance of the area-level prediction. We applied our methodology to historical data (of Culex pipiens) of two areas of interest (Veneto region of Italy and Central Macedonia of Greece). In both cases, the results were consistent. The mean mosquito abundance of a given area can be estimated with similar accuracy to the point-level predictor, sometimes even better. The density of the samples that we use to represent one area has a positive effect on the performance in contrast to the actual number of sampling points which is not informative at all regarding the performance without the size of the area. Additionally, we saw that the distance between the sampling points and the real in-situ measurements that were used for training did not strongly affect the performance.

Keywords: mosquito abundance, supervised machine learning, culex pipiens, spatial sampling, west nile virus, earth observation data

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Hasan Basaran, Emre Unal

Abstract:

Formation flying of satellites is a mission that involves a relative position keeping of different satellites in the constellation. In this study, different control algorithms are compared with one another in terms of ΔV, velocity increment, and tracking error. Various control methods, covering continuous and impulsive approaches are implemented and tested for satellites flying in low Earth orbit. Feedback linearization, sliding mode control, and model predictive control are designed and compared with an impulsive feedback law, which is based on mean orbital elements. Feedback linearization and sliding mode control approaches have identical mathematical models that include second order Earth oblateness effects. The model predictive control, on the other hand, does not include any perturbations and assumes circular chief orbit. The comparison is done with 4 different initial errors and achieved with velocity increment, root mean square error, maximum steady state error, and settling time. It was observed that impulsive law consumed the least ΔV, while produced the highest maximum error in the steady state. The continuous control laws, however, consumed higher velocity increments and produced lower amounts of tracking errors. Finally, the inversely proportional relationship between tracking error and velocity increment was established.

Keywords: chief-deputy satellites, feedback linearization, follower-leader satellites, formation flight, fuel consumption, model predictive control, rendezvous, sliding mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Tran Gia Khanh, Dao Phuong Nam, Do Trong Tan, Nguyen Van Huong, Mai Xuan Sinh

Abstract:

This work presents the problem of tube-based robust model predictive controller for a class of continuous-time systems in the presence of input disturbances. The main objective is to point out the state trajectory of closed system being maintained inside a sequence of tubes. An estimation of attraction region of the closed system is pointed out based on input state stability (ISS) theory and linearized model in each time interval. The theoretical analysis and simulation results demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm for a wheeled inverted pendulum system.

Keywords: input state stability (ISS), tube-based robust MPC, continuous-time nonlinear systems, wheeled inverted pendulum

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Desplanches Maxime

Abstract:

Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life of lithium-ion batteries for electronic devices is crucial. Data-driven methodologies encounter challenges related to data volume and acquisition protocols, particularly in capturing a comprehensive range of aging indicators. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach that integrates an electrochemical model with state-of-the-art data analysis techniques, yielding a comprehensive database. Our methodology involves infusing an aging phenomenon into a Newman model, leading to the creation of an extensive database capturing various aging states based on non-destructive parameters. This database serves as a robust foundation for subsequent analysis. Leveraging advanced data analysis techniques, notably principal component analysis and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding, we extract pivotal information from the data. This information is harnessed to construct a regression function using either random forest or support vector machine algorithms. The resulting predictor demonstrates a 5% error margin in estimating remaining battery life, providing actionable insights for optimizing usage. Furthermore, the database was built from the Newman model calibrated for aging and performance using data from a European project called Teesmat. The model was then initialized numerous times with different aging values, for instance, with varying thicknesses of SEI (Solid Electrolyte Interphase). This comprehensive approach ensures a thorough exploration of battery aging dynamics, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of our predictive model. Of particular importance is our reliance on the database generated through the integration of the electrochemical model. This database serves as a crucial asset in advancing our understanding of aging states. Beyond its capability for precise remaining life predictions, this database-driven approach offers valuable insights for optimizing battery usage and adapting the predictor to various scenarios. This underscores the practical significance of our method in facilitating better decision-making regarding lithium-ion battery management.

Keywords: Li-ion battery, aging, diagnostics, data analysis, prediction, machine learning, electrochemical model, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Mohamed El Horri, Amine Mouden, Reda Messaoudi, Mohamed Chekkal, Driss Benlaldj, Malika Baghdadi, Lahcene Benmahdi, Fatima Seghier

Abstract:

Background/aim: Recently, the Von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF-Ag)has been identified as a new marker of portal hypertension (PH) and its complications. Few studies talked about its role in the prediction of esophageal varices. VWF-Ag is considered a non-invasive approach, In order to avoid the endoscopic burden, cost, drawbacks, unpleasant and repeated examinations to the patients. In our study, we aimed to evaluate the ability of this marker in the prediction of another complication of portal hypertension, which is portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG), the one that is diagnosed also by endoscopic tools. Patients and methods: It is about a prospective study, which include 124 cirrhotic patients with no history of bleeding who underwent screening endoscopy for PH-related complications like esophageal varices (EVs) and PHG. Routine biological tests were performed as well as the VWF-Ag testing by both ELFA and Immunoturbidimetric techniques. The diagnostic performance of our marker was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, accuracy, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: 124 patients were enrolled in this study, with a mean age of 58 years [CI: 55 – 60 years] and a sex ratio of 1.17. Viral etiologies were found in 50% of patients. Screening endoscopy revealed the presence of PHG in 20.2% of cases, while for EVsthey were found in 83.1% of cases. VWF-Ag levels, were significantly increased in patients with PHG compared to those who have not: 441% [CI: 375 – 506], versus 279% [CI: 253 – 304], respectively (p <0.0001). Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), vWF-Ag was a good predictor for the presence of PHG. With a value higher than 320% and an AUC of 0.824, VWF-Ag had an 84% sensitivity, 74% specificity, 44.7% positive predictive value, 94.8% negative predictive value, and 75.8% diagnostic accuracy. Conclusion: VWF-Ag is a good non-invasive low coast marker for excluding the presence of PHG in patients with liver cirrhosis. Using this marker as part of a selective screening strategy might reduce the need for endoscopic screening and the coast of the management of these kinds of patients.

Keywords: von willebrand factor, portal hypertensive gastropathy, prediction, liver cirrhosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Juliette Harper, Yu Yang

Abstract:

Biofuels have gained significant attention recently due to the new regulations and agreements regarding fossil fuels and greenhouse gases being made by countries around the globe. One of the most common types of biofuels is biodiesel, primarily made via the transesterification reaction. We model this nonlinear process in MATLAB using the standard kinetic equations. Then, a nonlinear Model predictive control (NMPC) was developed to regulate this process due to its capability to handle process constraints. The feeding flow uncertainty and kinetic disturbances are further incorporated in the model to capture the real-world operating conditions. The simulation results will show that the proposed NMPC can guarantee the final composition of fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) above the target threshold with a high chance by adjusting the process temperature and flowrate. This research will allow further understanding of NMPC under uncertainties and how to design the computational strategy for larger process with more variables.

Keywords: NMPC, biodiesel, uncertainties, nonlinear, MATLAB

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Di Luo, Maria Buchberger, Anja Pickhard

Abstract:

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of four common morphological approaches, including sonography, computed tomography (CT), positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the evaluation of cervical lymph node metastases in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients. Material and Methods: Included in this retrospective study were 26 patients diagnosed with HNSCC between 2010 and 2011 who all underwent sonography, CT, PET/CT, and MRI imaging before neck dissection. Morphological data were compared to the corresponding histopathological results. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS statistic software (version 26.0), calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy for detection of cervical lymph node metastases. Results: The 5-year survival rate of the patient collective was 55.5%.Risk factors for survival included initial primary tumor stage, initial lymph node stage, initial metastasis status, and therapeutic approaches. Cox regression showed initial metastasis status(HR 8.671, 95%CI 1.316-57.123, p=0.025) and therapeutic approaches(HR 6.699, 95%CI 1.746-25.700, p=0.006)to be independent predictive risk factors for survival. Sensitivity was highest for MRI (96% compared to 85% for sonography and 89% for CT and PET/CT). Specificity was comparable with 95 % for CT and 98 % for sonography and PET/CT, but only 68% for MRI. While the MRI showed the least PPV (34%) compared to all other methods (85% for sonography,75% for CT, and 86% for PET/CT), the NPV was comparable in all methods(98-99%). The overall accuracy of cervical lymph node metastases detection was comparable for sonography, CT, and PET/CT with 96%,97%,94%, respectively, while MRI had only 72% accuracy. Conclusion: Since the initial status of metastasis is an independent predictive risk factor for patients’ survival, efficient detection is crucial to plan adequate therapeutic approaches. Sonography, CT, and PET/CT have better diagnostic accuracy than MRI for the evaluation of cervical lymph node metastases in HNSCC patients.

Keywords: cervical lymph node metastases, diagnostic accuracy, head and neck squamous carcinoma, risk factors, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Markus Mazzola, Gunther Schaaf

Abstract:

A vehicle driving with an Adaptive Cruise Control System (ACC) is usually controlled decentrally, based on the information of radar systems and in some publications based on C2X-Communication (CACC) to guarantee stable platoons. In this paper, we present a Model Predictive Control (MPC) design of a centralized, server-based ACC-System, whereby the vehicular platoon is modeled and controlled as a whole. It is then proven that the proposed MPC design guarantees asymptotic stability and hence string stability of the platoon. The Networked MPC design is chosen to be able to integrate system constraints optimally as well as to reduce the effects of communication delay and packet loss. The performance of the proposed controller is then simulated and analyzed in an LTE communication scenario using the LTE/EPC Network Simulator LENA, which is based on the ns-3 network simulator.

Keywords: adaptive cruise control, centralized server, networked model predictive control, string stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: Manan’Iarivo Rasolonjanahary, Chris Bingham, Nigel Schofield, Masoud Bazargan

Abstract:

This paper presents the research and application of model predictive scheduled charging of electric vehicles (EV) subject to limited available power resource. To focus on algorithm and operational characteristics, the EV interface to the source is modelled as a battery state equation during the charging operation. The researched methods allow for the priority scheduling of EV charging in a multi-vehicle regime and when subject to limited source power availability. Priority attribution for each connected EV is described. The validity of the developed methodology is shown through the simulation of different scenarios of charging operation of multiple connected EVs including non-scheduled and scheduled operation with various numbers of vehicles. Performance of the developed algorithms is also reported with the recommendation of the choice of suitable parameters.

Keywords: model predictive control, non-scheduled, power limited sources, scheduled and stop-start battery charging

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

Abstract:

Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Khadidja Bellifa, Sidi Mohamed Mekelleche

Abstract:

Phenols and especially halogenated phenols represent a substantial part of the chemicals produced worldwide and are known as aquatic pollutants. Quantitative structure–toxicity relationship (QSTR) models are useful for understanding how chemical structure relates to the toxicity of chemicals. In the present study, the acute toxicities of 45 halogenated phenols to Tetrahymena Pyriformis are estimated using no cost semi-empirical quantum chemistry methods. QSTR models were established using the multiple linear regression technique and the predictive ability of the models was evaluated by the internal cross-validation, the Y-randomization and the external validation. Their structural chemical domain has been defined by the leverage approach. The results show that the best model is obtained with the AM1 method (R²= 0.91, R²CV= 0.90, SD= 0.20 for the training set and R²= 0.96, SD= 0.11 for the test set). Moreover, all the Tropsha’ criteria for a predictive QSTR model are verified.

Keywords: halogenated phenols, toxicity mechanism, hydrophobicity, electrophilicity index, quantitative stucture-toxicity relationships

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Shailaja Grover, Purvi Tiwari, Vigneshwaran S. R., U. Dinesh Kumar

Abstract:

In India, grapes are one of the most important horticulture crops. Grapes are most vulnerable to downy mildew, which is one of the most devasting diseases. In the absence of a precise weather-based advisory system, farmers spray pesticides on their crops extensively. There are two main challenges associated with using these pesticides. Firstly, most of these sprays were panic sprays, which could have been avoided. Second, farmers use more expensive "Preventive and Eradicate" chemicals than "Systemic, Curative and Anti-sporulate" chemicals. When these chemicals are used indiscriminately, they can enter the fruit and cause health problems such as cancer. This paper utilizes decision trees and predictive modeling techniques to provide grape farmers with customized advice on grape disease management. This model is expected to reduce the overall use of chemicals by approximately 50% and the cost by around 70%. Most of the grapes produced will have relatively low residue levels of pesticides, i.e., below the permissible level.

Keywords: analytics in agriculture, downy mildew, weather based advisory, decision tree, predictive modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Megan E. Davies

Abstract:

With the intention of identifying cognitive processes uniquely involved in the dark triad personality traits of psychopathy, Machiavellianism, and narcissism, this study aimed to determine further potential differences and parameters of individual traits by explaining a statistically significant amount of variance between the constructs of manipulativeness, impulsiveness, grit, and need for cognition within the dark triad. Applying a cross-sectional design, N = 96 participants self-reported using the MACH-IV, SRP-III, NFC-S, and Grit Scale for Perseverance and Passion for Long-Term Goals. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that only manipulativeness predicted Machiavellianism, whereas manipulativeness and impulsiveness were found to have predictive qualities for psychopathy. Overall, these results found areas of discrepancy and overlap between manipulation and impulsivity regarding psychopathy and Machiavellianism. Additionally, this study serves to preliminarily eliminate the Need for Cognition and grit as predictive variables for Machiavellianism and psychopathy.

Keywords: Machiavellianism, psychopathy, manipulation, impulsiveness, need for cognition, grit, dark triad

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Fatemeh Khalili Varnamkhasti

Abstract:

Numerous nations have recognized the critical ought to address natural issues, such as discuss contamination, squander transfer, worldwide warming, and common asset consumption, through the application of green innovation. The rise of cleverly advances has driven mechanical basic changes that will offer assistance accomplish carbon decrease. Manufactured insights (AI) innovation is an imperative portion of digitalization, giving unused mechanical apparatuses and bearings for the moo carbon advancement of endeavors. Quickening the brilliantly change of fabricating industry is an critical vital choice to realize the green advancement change. The reason why fabricating insights can advance the advancement of green advancement execution is that fabricating insights is conducive to the generation of "innovation advancement impact" and "fetched decrease impact" so as to advance green innovation advancement, at that point viably increment the alluring yields and essentially diminish the undesirable yields. AI improvement will boost GTI as it were when the escalated of natural direction and organization environment is over a certain edge esteem. In any case, the AI improvement spoken to by mechanical robot applications still has no self-evident impact on GTI, indeed, when the R&D venture surpasses a certain edge.

Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions, green infrastructure, artificial intelligence, environmental protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: Klara Smith-Etxeberria

Abstract:

main goal of this study was to analyze the predictive ability of some variables associated with the parental divorce process alongside attachment history with parents on both, mother-child and father-child relationship quality. Our sample consisted of 173 undergraduate and vocational school students from the Autonomous Community of the Basque Country. All of them belonged to a divorced family. Results showed that adequate maternal strategies during the divorce process (e.g.: stable, continuous and positive role as a mother) was the variable with greater predictive ability on mother-child relationships quality. In addition, secure attachment history with mother also predicted positive mother-child relationships. On the other hand, father-child relationship quality was predicted by adequate paternal strategies during the divorce process, such as his stable, continuous and positive role as a father, along with not badmouthing the mother and promoting good mother-child relationships. Furthermore, paternal negative emotional state due to divorce was positively associated with father-child relationships quality, and both, history of attachment with mother and with father predicted father-child relationships quality. In conclusion, our data indicate that both, paternal and maternal strategies for children´s adequate adjustment during the divorce process influence on mother-child and father-child relationships quality. However, these results suggest that paternal strategies during the divorce process have a greater predictive ability on father-child relationships quality, whereas maternal positive strategies during divorce determine positive mother-child relationships among young adults.

Keywords: father-child relationships quality, mother-child relationships quality, parental divorce process, young adulthood

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Golnush Masghati-Amoli, Paul Chin

Abstract:

Over the past recent years, with the rapid increases in data availability and computing power, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been called on in a range of different industries for their strong predictive capability. However, the use of Machine Learning in commercial banking has been limited due to a special challenge imposed by numerous regulations that require lenders to be able to explain their analytic models, not only to regulators but often to consumers. In other words, although Machine Leaning techniques enable better prediction with a higher level of accuracy, in comparison with other industries, they are adopted less frequently in commercial banking especially for scoring purposes. This is due to the fact that Machine Learning techniques are often considered as a black box and fail to provide information on why a certain risk score is given to a customer. In order to bridge this gap between the explain-ability and performance of Machine Learning techniques, a Hybrid Model is developed at Dun and Bradstreet that is focused on blending Machine Learning algorithms with traditional approaches such as scorecards. The Hybrid Model maximizes efficiency of traditional scorecards by merging its practical benefits, such as explain-ability and the ability to input domain knowledge, with the deep insights of Machine Learning techniques which can uncover patterns scorecard approaches cannot. First, through development of Machine Learning models, engineered features and latent variables and feature interactions that demonstrate high information value in the prediction of customer risk are identified. Then, these features are employed to introduce observed non-linear relationships between the explanatory and dependent variables into traditional scorecards. Moreover, instead of directly computing the Weight of Evidence (WoE) from good and bad data points, the Hybrid Model tries to match the score distribution generated by a Machine Learning algorithm, which ends up providing an estimate of the WoE for each bin. This capability helps to build powerful scorecards with sparse cases that cannot be achieved with traditional approaches. The proposed Hybrid Model is tested on different portfolios where a significant gap is observed between the performance of traditional scorecards and Machine Learning models. The result of analysis shows that Hybrid Model can improve the performance of traditional scorecards by introducing non-linear relationships between explanatory and target variables from Machine Learning models into traditional scorecards. Also, it is observed that in some scenarios the Hybrid Model can be almost as predictive as the Machine Learning techniques while being as transparent as traditional scorecards. Therefore, it is concluded that, with the use of Hybrid Model, Machine Learning algorithms can be used in the commercial banking industry without being concerned with difficulties in explaining the models for regulatory purposes.

Keywords: machine learning algorithms, scorecard, commercial banking, consumer risk, feature engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Misuk Kim, Seokho Kang, Jehyuk Lee, Hyunchang Cho, Sungzoon Cho

Abstract:

In semiconductor manufacturing, virtual metrology (VM) refers to methods to predict properties of a wafer based on machine parameters and sensor data of the production equipment, without performing the (costly) physical measurement of the wafer properties (Wikipedia). Additional benefits include avoidance of human bias and identification of important factors affecting the quality of the process which allow improving the process quality in the future. It is however rare to find VM applied to other areas of manufacturing. In this work, we propose to use VM to copper clad laminate (CCL) manufacturing. CCL is a core element of a printed circuit board (PCB) which is used in smartphones, tablets, digital cameras, and laptop computers. The manufacturing of CCL consists of three processes: Treating, lay-up, and pressing. Treating, the most important process among the three, puts resin on glass cloth, heat up in a drying oven, then produces prepreg for lay-up process. In this process, three important quality factors are inspected: Treated weight (T/W), Minimum Viscosity (M/V), and Gel Time (G/T). They are manually inspected, incurring heavy cost in terms of time and money, which makes it a good candidate for VM application. We developed prediction models of the three quality factors T/W, M/V, and G/T, respectively, with process variables, raw material, and environment variables. The actual process data was obtained from a CCL manufacturer. A variety of variable selection methods and learning algorithms were employed to find the best prediction model. We obtained prediction models of M/V and G/T with a high enough accuracy. They also provided us with information on “important” predictor variables, some of which the process engineers had been already aware and the rest of which they had not. They were quite excited to find new insights that the model revealed and set out to do further analysis on them to gain process control implications. T/W did not turn out to be possible to predict with a reasonable accuracy with given factors. The very fact indicates that the factors currently monitored may not affect T/W, thus an effort has to be made to find other factors which are not currently monitored in order to understand the process better and improve the quality of it. In conclusion, VM application to CCL’s treating process was quite successful. The newly built quality prediction model allowed one to reduce the cost associated with actual metrology as well as reveal some insights on the factors affecting the important quality factors and on the level of our less than perfect understanding of the treating process.

Keywords: copper clad laminate, predictive modeling, quality control, virtual metrology

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Sara Hasani

Abstract:

This research focuses on natural sudden onset disasters characterised as ‘occurring with little or no warning and often cause excessive injuries far surpassing the national response capacities’. Based on the panel analysis of the historic record of 4,252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2015, a predictive method was developed to predict the human impact of the disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) with less than 3% of errors. The geographical dispersion of the disasters includes every country where the data were available and cross-examined from various humanitarian sources. The records were then filtered into 4252 records of the disasters where the five predictive variables (disaster type, HDI, DRI, population, and population density) were clearly stated. The procedure was designed based on a combination of pattern recognition techniques and rule-based clustering for prediction and discrimination analysis to validate the results further. The result indicates that there is a relationship between the disaster human impact and the five socio-economic characteristics of the affected country mentioned above. As a result, a framework was put forward, which could predict the disaster’s human impact based on their severity rank in the early hours of disaster strike. The predictions in this model were outlined in two worst and best-case scenarios, which respectively inform the lower range and higher range of the prediction. A necessity to develop the predictive framework can be highlighted by noticing that despite the existing research in literature, a framework for predicting the human impact and estimating the needs at the time of the disaster is yet to be developed. This can further be used to allocate the resources at the response phase of the disaster where the data is scarce.

Keywords: disaster management, natural disaster, pattern recognition, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Marie E. Docken

Abstract:

At some point in the lifecycle of a country, patterns of political and social unrest of varying degrees are observed. Events involving public disorder or civil disobedience may produce effects that range a wide spectrum of varying outcomes, depending on the level of unrest. Many previous studies, primarily theoretical in nature, have attempted to measure public disorder in answering why or how it occurs in society by examining causal factors or underlying issues in the social or political position of a population. The main objective in doing so is to understand how these activities evolve or seek some predictive capability for the events. In contrast, this research involves the fusion of analytics and social studies to provide more knowledge of the public disorder and civil disobedience intensity in populations. With a greater understanding of the magnitude of these events, it is believed that we may learn how they relate to extreme actions such as mass migration or violence. Upon establishing a model for measuring civil unrest based upon empirical data, a case study on various Latin American countries is performed. Interpretations of historical events are combined with analytical results to provide insights regarding the magnitude and effect of social and political activism.

Keywords: public disorder, civil disobedience, Latin America, metrics, data analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Muhammad Bilal Shaikh

Abstract:

Mineral processing plants play a pivotal role in extracting valuable minerals from raw ores, contributing significantly to various industries. However, the optimization of plant throughput remains a complex challenge, necessitating innovative approaches for increased efficiency and productivity. This research paper investigates the application of Multimodal Artificial Intelligence (MAI) techniques to address this challenge, aiming to improve overall plant throughput in mineral processing operations. The integration of multimodal AI leverages a combination of diverse data sources, including sensor data, images, and textual information, to provide a holistic understanding of the complex processes involved in mineral extraction. The paper explores the synergies between various AI modalities, such as machine learning, computer vision, and natural language processing, to create a comprehensive and adaptive system for optimizing mineral processing plants. The primary focus of the research is on developing advanced predictive models that can accurately forecast various parameters affecting plant throughput. Utilizing historical process data, machine learning algorithms are trained to identify patterns, correlations, and dependencies within the intricate network of mineral processing operations. This enables real-time decision-making and process optimization, ultimately leading to enhanced plant throughput. Incorporating computer vision into the multimodal AI framework allows for the analysis of visual data from sensors and cameras positioned throughout the plant. This visual input aids in monitoring equipment conditions, identifying anomalies, and optimizing the flow of raw materials. The combination of machine learning and computer vision enables the creation of predictive maintenance strategies, reducing downtime and improving the overall reliability of mineral processing plants. Furthermore, the integration of natural language processing facilitates the extraction of valuable insights from unstructured textual data, such as maintenance logs, research papers, and operator reports. By understanding and analyzing this textual information, the multimodal AI system can identify trends, potential bottlenecks, and areas for improvement in plant operations. This comprehensive approach enables a more nuanced understanding of the factors influencing throughput and allows for targeted interventions. The research also explores the challenges associated with implementing multimodal AI in mineral processing plants, including data integration, model interpretability, and scalability. Addressing these challenges is crucial for the successful deployment of AI solutions in real-world industrial settings. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed multimodal AI framework, the research conducts case studies in collaboration with mineral processing plants. The results demonstrate tangible improvements in plant throughput, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. The paper concludes with insights into the broader implications of implementing multimodal AI in mineral processing and its potential to revolutionize the industry by providing a robust, adaptive, and data-driven approach to optimizing plant operations. In summary, this research contributes to the evolving field of mineral processing by showcasing the transformative potential of multimodal artificial intelligence in enhancing plant throughput. The proposed framework offers a holistic solution that integrates machine learning, computer vision, and natural language processing to address the intricacies of mineral extraction processes, paving the way for a more efficient and sustainable future in the mineral processing industry.

Keywords: multimodal AI, computer vision, NLP, mineral processing, mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Mia Françoise

Abstract:

This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Thidathit Prachanukool, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Welawat Tienpratarn, Sorravit Savatmongkorngul, Panvilai Tangkulpanich, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Yuranan Phootothum, Malivan Phontabtim, Promphet Nuanprom

Abstract:

Background: Ruptured appendicitis has a high morbidity and mortality and requires immediate surgery. The Alvarado Score is used as a tool to predict the risk of acute appendicitis, but there is no such score for predicting rupture. This study aimed to developed the prediction score to determine the likelihood of ruptured appendicitis in an Asian population. Methods: This study was diagnostic, retrospectively cross-sectional and exploratory model at the Emergency Medicine Department in Ramathibodi Hospital between March 2016 and March 2018. The inclusion criteria were age >15 years and an available pathology report after appendectomy. Clinical factors included gender, age>60 years, right lower quadrant pain, migratory pain, nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhea, anorexia, fever>37.3°C, rebound tenderness, guarding, white blood cell count, polymorphonuclear white blood cells (PMN)>75%, and the pain duration before presentation. The predictive model and prediction score for ruptured appendicitis was developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Result: During the study period, 480 patients met the inclusion criteria; of these, 77 (16%) had ruptured appendicitis. Five independent factors were predictive of rupture, age>60 years, fever>37.3°C, guarding, PMN>75%, and duration of pain>24 hours to presentation. A score > 6 increased the likelihood ratio of ruptured appendicitis by 3.88 times. Conclusion: Using the Ramathibodi Welawat Ruptured Appendicitis Score. (RAMA WeRA Score) developed in this study, a score of > 6 was associated with ruptured appendicitis.

Keywords: predictive model, risk score, ruptured appendicitis, emergency room

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Kamaladevi Kunkolienker

Abstract:

This paper appreciates the stimulating and thought-provoking synthesis of Heraclitus’ philosophy offered by Sri Aurobindo. The deep philosophical insights of Heraclitus expressed in aphoristic and cryptic form inspired him and supported his system of Integral Yoga. An attempt is made to reconstruct and synthesize Eastern and Western philosophical insights through hermeneutical treatment of many concepts. Aurobindo points out the sameness and kinship between Heraclitus’ thought and concepts from Vedic and upanishadic texts with illustrations and thus undertakes the task of synthesizing them. This fruitful synthesis also brings out the scientific perspective of Heraclitus’ thought and showcases it as a rare flowering of philosophy. It also enables the thinkers to reflect, reinterpret and synthesize such philosophies to bring out their significance in post-modern philosophy and science.

Keywords: all, change, fire, one

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: S. Bouharati, F. Allag, M. Belmahdi, M. Bounechada

Abstract:

In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.

Keywords: climate changes, dry soil, phytopathogenicity, predictive model, fuzzy logic

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Shu-Pin Huang, Pai-Chi Teng, Hao-Han Chang, Chia-Hsin Liu, Yung-Lun Lin, Shu-Chi Wang, Hsin-Chih Yeh, Chih-Pin Chuu, Jiun-Hung Geng, Li-Hsin Chang, Wei-Chung Cheng, Chia-Yang Li

Abstract:

The emergence of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) targeting proteins like PD-1 and PD-L1 has changed the treatment paradigm of bladder cancer. However, not all patients benefit from ICIs, with some experiencing early death. There's a significant need for biomarkers associated with the PD-1 pathway in bladder cancer. Current biomarkers focus on tumor PD-L1 expression, but a more comprehensive understanding of PD-1-related biology is needed. Our study has developed a seven-gene risk score panel, employing a comprehensive bioinformatics strategy, which could serve as a potential prognostic and predictive biomarker for bladder cancer. This panel incorporates the FYN, GRAP2, TRIB3, MAP3K8, AKT3, CD274, and CD80 genes. Additionally, we examined the relationship between this panel and immune cell function, utilizing validated tools such as ESTIMATE, TIDE, and CIBERSORT. Our seven-genes panel has been found to be significantly associated with bladder cancer survival in two independent cohorts. The panel was also significantly correlated with tumor infiltration lymphocytes, immune scores, and tumor purity. These factors have been previously reported to have clinical implications on ICIs. The findings suggest the potential of a PD-1 pathway-based transcriptomic panel as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in bladder cancer, which could help optimize treatment strategies and improve patient outcomes.

Keywords: bladder cancer, programmed cell death protein 1, prognostic biomarker, immune checkpoint inhibitors, predictive biomarker

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Mina Sadat Orooje, Mohammad Mehdi Latifi, Behnam Fereydooni Eftekhari

Abstract:

The integration of cutting-edge Internet of Things (IoT) technologies with advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems is revolutionizing healthcare facility management. However, the current landscape of hospital building maintenance suffers from slow, repetitive, and disjointed processes, leading to significant financial, resource, and time losses. Additionally, the potential of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in facility maintenance is hindered by a lack of data within digital models of built environments, necessitating a more streamlined data collection process. This paper presents a robust framework that harmonizes AI with BIM-IoT technology to elevate healthcare Facility Maintenance Management (FMM) and address these pressing challenges. The methodology begins with a thorough literature review and requirements analysis, providing insights into existing technological landscapes and associated obstacles. Extensive data collection and analysis efforts follow to deepen understanding of hospital infrastructure and maintenance records. Critical AI algorithms are identified to address predictive maintenance, anomaly detection, and optimization needs alongside integration strategies for BIM and IoT technologies, enabling real-time data collection and analysis. The framework outlines protocols for data processing, analysis, and decision-making. A prototype implementation is executed to showcase the framework's functionality, followed by a rigorous validation process to evaluate its efficacy and gather user feedback. Refinement and optimization steps are then undertaken based on evaluation outcomes. Emphasis is placed on the scalability of the framework in real-world scenarios and its potential applications across diverse healthcare facility contexts. Finally, the findings are meticulously documented and shared within the healthcare and facility management communities. This framework aims to significantly boost maintenance efficiency, cut costs, provide decision support, enable real-time monitoring, offer data-driven insights, and ultimately enhance patient safety and satisfaction. By tackling current challenges in healthcare facility maintenance management it paves the way for the adoption of smarter and more efficient maintenance practices in healthcare facilities.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, building information modeling, healthcare facility maintenance, internet of things integration, maintenance efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 24