Search results for: population based method

Authors: Imran Hashmi, Sipkaduwa Arachchige Sashika Sureni Wickramasooriya

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Gene-drive technology has emerged as a promising tool for disease control by influencing the population dynamics of disease-carrying organisms. Various gene drive mechanisms, derived from global laboratory experiments, aim to strategically manage and prevent the spread of targeted diseases. One prominent strategy involves population replacement, wherein genetically modified mosquitoes are introduced to replace the existing local wild population. To enhance our understanding and aid in the design of effective release strategies, we employ a comprehensive mathematical model. The utilized approach employs agent-based modeling, enabling the consideration of individual mosquito attributes and flexibility in parameter manipulation. Through the integration of an agent-based model and a meta-population spatial approach, the dynamics of gene drive mosquito spreading in a released site are simulated. The model's outcomes offer valuable insights into future population dynamics, providing guidance for the development of informed release strategies. This research significantly contributes to the ongoing discourse on the responsible and effective implementation of gene drive technology for disease vector control.

Keywords: gene drive, agent-based modeling, disease-carrying organisms, malaria

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Authors: Megi Surmanidze

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The relations between tourists and the population is essentially important to develop tourism. This global branch is an incoming stream and plays the huge economy role in the country is development. This branch is important for adjarian region as well as for Batumi as a touristic city. When lots of tourists visit our city, the relationship and attitudes between tourists and the local population is too important and play the determinant role whether they will visit the country again or not. Receptivness is on actual accompanying process typical for tourism as a growing incoming business direction, and its necessary to be studied the problems and touristic relationships. The aim of the article is to show the importance of receptibility in the business touristic industry also, the topic was to show the dimension scale of receptibility revearing in Batumi population. The topic itself is of hight importance as the touristic business is growing day by day, though the helpful and disturbing social couses were left out of focus were dencely connected to the relations between tourists and the local population. The value is real and directly proportional to the relationship between tourists and the population. The qualitative social research was fulfield. The method to get information was deepened interview. the method gave us the opportunity to get acquented to the actors points of view, also it was suitable points of view, also it was suitable to create favourable conditions to respodents be sincere during interviev and don’t hide their real emotions and the opinions.

Keywords: tourism industry, receptiveness, cultural identity, xenophobia

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Authors: D. K. Rao, M. G. M. Khan, K. G. Reddy

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The focus of this paper is to develop a technique of solving a combined problem of determining Optimum Strata Boundaries (OSB) and Optimum Sample Size (OSS) of each stratum, when the population understudy is skewed and the study variable has a Pareto frequency distribution. The problem of determining the OSB is formulated as a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) which is then solved by dynamic programming technique. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the computational details of the proposed method. The proposed technique is useful to obtain OSB and OSS for a Pareto type skewed population, which minimizes the variance of the estimate of population mean.

Keywords: stratified sampling, optimum strata boundaries, optimum sample size, pareto distribution, mathematical programming problem, dynamic programming technique

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Authors: Saba Riaz, Syed A. Hussain

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This paper is addressing the estimation method of the unknown population variance of the variable of interest. A new generalized class of estimators of the finite population variance has been suggested using the auxiliary information. To improve the precision of the proposed class, known population variance of the auxiliary variable has been used. Mathematical expressions for the biases and the asymptotic variances of the suggested class are derived under large sample approximation. Theoretical and numerical comparisons are made to investigate the performances of the proposed class of estimators. The empirical study reveals that the suggested class of estimators performs better than the usual estimator, classical ratio estimator, classical product estimator and classical linear regression estimator. It has also been found that the suggested class of estimators is also more efficient than some recently published estimators.

Keywords: study variable, auxiliary variable, finite population variance, bias, asymptotic variance, percent relative efficiency

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Authors: Pager Mansaram Pandit

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The present paper aims to changing trends of population in Nashik district. The spatial variation of changing trends of population from 1901 to 2011. Nasik, lying between 19° 33’ and 20° 53’ north latitude and 73° 16’ and 75° 16’, with an area of 15530 Sq. K.M.North South length is 120 km. East West length is 200 km. Nashik has a population of 6,109,052 of which 3,164,261 are males and 2,944,791 and females. Average literacy rate of Nashik district in 2011 was 82.91 compared to 80.96 in 2001. In 1901 the density was 52 and in 2011 the density was 393 per sq. km. The progressive growth rate from 1901 to 2012 was 11.25 to 642.22 percent, respectively. The population trend is calculated with the help of time series. In 1901 population was 45.44% more and less in 1941 i.e. -13.86. From 1921 to 1981 the population was below the population trend but after 1991 population it gradually increased. The average rainfall it receives is 1034 mm. In the present times, because of advances in good climate, industrialization, development of road, University level educational facilities, religious importance, cargo services, good quality of grapes, pomegranates and onions, more and more people are being attracted towards Nashik districts. Another cause for the increase in the population is the main attraction of Ramkund, Muktidham Temple, Kalaram Temple, Coin Museum, and Trimbakeshwar.

Keywords: density, growth, population, population trend

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Authors: Jana Aleksić, Marijana Petković

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Female population has an increasing role when it comes to purchase. Consequently, the female population has a greater role in modern marketing. Although it is thought that women buy more than men, marketing strategy was not directed specifically towards women. The thing that has changed regarding women’s role in modern marketing is the fact that the female population has a leading position when it comes to decision making in various fields and various sectors, which was not the case in the past. Marketing should be directed towards women but it should be done in the right way. Compared to men, women buy in a different way, and they look for more various advantages in the product itself, than men do. This paper aims to show the importance of the female role in the modern marketing and management and to redirect marketing in some way towards female population through new marketing strategies and management systems. Hypothesis is that women have an important role in marketing, and marketing strategy of modern society could and should be based on and directed towards female population and their tastes when it comes to purchasing. It is necessary and desirable to apply marketing strategy with a special strategy that has an emphasis on women and their purchase or in a word to apply WS- woman strategy. This research was carried out as a random sample research, where were obtained 212 valid surveys whose results serve as a basis for drawing conclusions about the research as well as to verify the formulated hypotheses. The research was carried out during 2011 and 2012. The study has shown a significant role of the female population in the marketing process.

Keywords: marketing, management, female, purchase, strategy

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Authors: Colette Faucher

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In modern asymmetric conflicts, the Armed Forces generally have to intervene in countries where the internal peace is in danger. They must make the local population an ally in order to be able to deploy the necessary military actions with its support. For this purpose, psychological operations (PSYOPs) are used to shape people’s behaviors and emotions by the modification of their attitudes in acting on their perceptions. PSYOPs aim at elaborating and spreading a message that must be read, listened to and/or looked at, then understood by the info-targets in order to get from them the desired behavior. A message can generate in the info-targets, reasoned thoughts, spontaneous emotions or reflex behaviors, this effect partly depending on the means of conveyance used to spread this message. In this paper, we focus on psychological operations that generate emotions. We present a method based on the Intergroup Emotion Theory, that determines, from the characteristics of the conveyed message and of the people from the population directly reached by the means of conveyance (direct info-targets), the emotion likely to be triggered in them and we simulate the propagation of the effects of such a message on indirect info-targets that are connected to them through the social networks that structure the population.

Keywords: military psychological operations, social identity, social network, emotion propagation

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Authors: Zhoucheng Bao, Haiyan Zhu, Tingting Pang, Zuling Wang

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This paper proposes a multi-population DE with adaptive mutation and local search for global optimization, named AMMADE. In order to better coordinate the cooperation between the populations and the rational use of resources. In AMMADE, the population is divided based on the Euclidean distance sorting method at each generation to appropriately coordinate the cooperation between subpopulations and the usage of resources, such that the best-performed subpopulation will get more computing resources in the next generation. Further, an adaptive local search strategy is employed on the best-performed subpopulation to achieve a balanced search. The proposed algorithm has been tested by solving optimization problems taken from CEC2014 benchmark problems. Experimental results show that our algorithm can achieve a competitive or better than related methods. The results also confirm the significance of devised strategies in the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: differential evolution, multi-mutation strategies, memetic algorithm, adaptive local search

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Authors: Zoltan Abram

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Background: In the last time it was hardly increased the prevalence of psychical diseases and disorders which reduce work capacity, life quality and life expectancy. Objectives: The aim of our research is to study the psychical health state of the Romanian adults living in the middle part of the country and the role of some economical, psychological and social factors, especially in relationship with depression. Methods: The study is based on a complex anonymous questionnaire, including Beck depressive scale, which was completed by a representative sample among adult population. The applied method was a combination between stratification and more-steps sampling. Results: After our results depression is the most common psychical illness with 9,1% diagnosis, but the tendency to depression, the existence of depressive symptoms is much higher than the treated illness. The percentage of suicide attempt among the studied population was 2,9%. It is analysed how gender, age, professional and social status, living and working conditions and different social factors are influencing the health state. According to Beck score, it was established a significant difference in the favour of female, elderly people, lower educational level, urban population. Conclusions: In our study it is underlined the importance of health promotion and education. It is concluded that improving living standards, modifying in a proper way the lifestyle of the population, we can positively influence the physical and mental health state of the Romanian adult population.

Keywords: Beck scale, depression, psychological aspects, suicide attempt

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Authors: Ansari Mohammad Reza, Hiroko Ono

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In this study, we investigated how much of the urban facilities are fairly distributing in the city of Kabul based on the factor of population. To find the answer to this question we simulated a fair model for the distribution of investigated facilities in the city which is proposed based on the consideration of two factors; the number of users for each facility and the average distance of reach of each facility. Then the model was evaluated to make sure about its efficiency. And finally, the two—the existing pattern and the simulation model—were compared to find the degree of bias in the existing pattern of distribution of facilities in the city. The result of the study clearly clarified that the facilities are not fairly distributed in Kabul city based on the factor of population. Our analysis also revealed that the education services and the parks are the most and the worst fair distributed facilities in this regard.

Keywords: Afghanistan, ArcGIS Software, Kabul City, fair distribution, urban facilities

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Authors: Ainagul Yermekova, Liudmila Goncharenko, Ali Baghirzade, Sergey Sybachin

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In this article, we address the problem of Kazakhstan's transition to the Latin alphabet. The transition process started in 2017 and is scheduled to be completed in 2025. In connection with these events, the problem of recognizing the characters of the new alphabet is raised. Well-known character recognition programs such as ABBYY FineReader, FormReader, MyScript Stylus did not recognize specific Kazakh letters that were used in Cyrillic. The author tries to give an assessment of the well-known method of character recognition that could be in demand as part of the country's transition to the Latin alphabet. Three methods of character recognition: template, structured, and feature-based, are considered through the algorithms of operation. At the end of the article, a general conclusion is made about the possibility of applying a certain method to a particular recognition process: for example, in the process of population census, recognition of typographic text in Latin, or recognition of photos of car numbers, store signs, etc.

Keywords: text detection, template method, recognition algorithm, structured method, feature method

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Authors: K. Umbleja, M. Ichino, H. Yaguchi

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In this paper, we propose a coloring method for multivariate data visualization by using parallel coordinates based on dissimilarity and tree structure information gathered during hierarchical clustering. The proposed method is an extension for proximity-based coloring that suffers from a few undesired side effects if hierarchical tree structure is not balanced tree. We describe the algorithm by assigning colors based on dissimilarity information, show the application of proposed method on three commonly used datasets, and compare the results with proximity-based coloring. We found our proposed method to be especially beneficial for symbolic data visualization where many individual objects have already been aggregated into a single symbolic object.

Keywords: data visualization, dissimilarity-based coloring, proximity-based coloring, symbolic data

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Authors: Nguyen Van Loi, Le Thanh Son, Tran Trung Kien

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The paper deals with the problem of the formation of range profiles (RPs) for an X-band coastal surveillance radar. Two popular methods, the difference operator method, and the window-based method, are reviewed and analyzed via two tests with different datasets. The test results show that although the original window-based method achieves a better performance than the difference operator method, it has three main drawbacks that are the use of 3 or 4 peaks of an RP for creating the windows, the extension of the window size using the power sum of three adjacent cells in the left and the right sides of the windows and the same threshold applied for all types of vessels to finish the formation process of RPs. These drawbacks lead to inaccurate RPs due to the low signal-to-clutter ratio. Therefore, some suggestions are proposed to improve the original window-based method.

Keywords: range profile, difference operator method, window-based method, automatic target recognition

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Authors: Jane N. O'Sullivan

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Although it is widely believed that fertility decline has benefitted economic advancement, particularly in East and South-East Asian countries, the causal mechanisms for this stimulus are contested. Since the turn of this century, demographic dividend theory has been increasingly recognised, hypothesising that higher proportions of working-age people can contribute to economic expansion if conditions are met to employ them productively. Population growth rate, as a systemic condition distinct from age composition, has not been similar attention since the 1970s and has lacked methodology for quantitative assessment. This paper explores conceptual and empirical quantification of the burden of expanding physical capital to accommodate a growing population. In proof-of-concept analyses of Australia and the United Kingdom, actual expenditure on gross fixed capital formation was compiled over four decades and apportioned to maintenance/turnover or expansion to accommodate population growth, based on lifespan of capital assets and population growth rate. In both countries, capital expansion was estimated to cost 6.5-7.0% of GDP per 1% population growth rate. This opportunity cost impedes the improvement of per capita capacity needed to realise the potential of the working-age population. Economic modelling of demographic scenarios have to date omitted this channel of influence; the implications of its inclusion are discussed.

Keywords: age dependency, demographic dividend, infrastructure, population growth rate

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Authors: Avijit Sengupta, Klarissa Ting Ting Cheng, Maffee Peng-Hui Wan

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This study investigates the influence of user factors and referent characteristics on representation types generated using the stereotype production method for designing icons. Sixty-eight participants of farming communities were asked to draw images based on sixteen feature referents. Significant statistical differences were found between the types of representations generated for contextual and context-independent referents. Strong correlations were observed between years of formal education and total number of abstract representations produced for both contextual and context-independent referents. However, representation characteristics were not influenced by other user factors such as participants’ experience with mobile phone and years of farming experience. A statistically significant tendency of making concrete representations was observed for both contextual and context-independent referents. These findings provide insights on community members’ involvement in icon design and suggest a consolidated icon design strategy based on population stereotype, particularly for under-served rural communities of India.

Keywords: abstract representation, concrete representation, participatory design, population stereotype

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Authors: Dianis Wulan Sari, Takeo Minematsu, Mikako Yoshida, Hiromi Sanada

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Introduction: Pruritus is diagnosed as itching without macroscopic abnormalities on skin. It is the most skin complaint of elderly people. In the present study, we conducted a dermatological study to examine the risk factors of pruritic skin and predicted how to prevent pruritus especially in the elderly population. Pruritus is caused several types of inflammation, including epidermal innate immunity based on keratinocyte responses and acquired immunity regulated by type 1 or 2 helper T (Th) cells. The triggers of pruritus differ among inflammation types, therefore we did separately assess the pruritus-associated factors of each inflammation type in an effort to contribute to the identification of intervention targets for preventing pruritus. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the factors related with actual condition of pruritic skin by examine the skin properties. Method: This study was conducted in elderly population of Indonesian nursing home. Basic characteristics and behaviors were obtained by interview. The properties of pruritic skin were collected by examination of skin biomarker using skin blotting as novel method of non-invasive skin assessment method and examination of skin barrier function using stratum corneum hydration and skin pH. Result: The average age of participants was 74 years with independent status was 66.8%. Age (β = -0.130, p = 0.044), cumulative lifetime sun exposure (β = 0.145, p = 0.026), bathing duration (β = 0.151, p = 0.022), clothing change frequency (β = 0.135, p = 0.029), and clothing type (β = -0.139, p = 0.021) were risk factors of pruritic skin in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Risk factors of pruritic skin in elderly population were caused by internal factors such as skin senescence and external factors such as sun exposure, hygiene care and skin care behavior.

Keywords: aging, hygiene care, pruritus, skin care, sun exposure

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Authors: Yanto Santosa, Dede Aulia Rahman, Cory Wulan, Abdul Haris Mustari

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The global demand for long-tailed macaques for medical experimentation has continued to increase. Fulfillment of Indonesian export demands has been mostly from natural habitats, based on a harvesting quota. This quota has been determined according to the total catch for a given year, and not based on consideration of any demographic parameters or physical environmental factors with regard to the animal; hence threatening the sustainability of the various populations. It is therefore necessary to formulate a method for calculating a sustainable harvesting quota, based on population parameters in natural habitats. Considering the possibility of variations in habitat characteristics and population parameters, a time series observation of demographic and physical/biotic parameters, in various habitats, was performed on 13 groups of long-tailed macaques, distributed throughout the West Java, Lampung and Yogyakarta areas of Indonesia. These provinces were selected for comparison of the influence of human/tourism activities. Data on population parameters that was collected included data on life expectancy according to age class, numbers of individuals by sex and age class, and ‘ratio of infants to reproductive females’. The estimation of population growth was based on a population dynamic growth model: the Leslie matrix. The harvesting quota was calculated as being the difference between the actual population size and the MVP (minimum viable population) for each sex and age class. Observation indicated that there were variations within group size (24 – 106 individuals), gender (sex) ratio (1:1 to 1:1.3), life expectancy value (0.30 to 0.93), and ‘ratio of infants to reproductive females’ (0.23 to 1.56). Results of subsequent calculations showed that sustainable harvesting quotas for each studied group of long-tailed macaques, ranged from 29 to 110 individuals. An estimation model of the MVP for each age class was formulated as Log Y = 0.315 + 0.884 Log Ni (number of individual on ith age class). This study also found that life expectancy for the juvenile age class was affected by the humidity under tree stands, and dietary plants’ density at sapling, pole and tree stages (equation: Y= 2.296 – 1.535 RH + 0.002 Kpcg – 0.002 Ktg – 0.001 Kphn, R2 = 89.6% with a significance value of 0.001). By contrast, for the sub-adult-adult age class, life expectancy was significantly affected by slope (equation: Y=0.377 = 0.012 Kml, R2 = 50.4%, with significance level of 0.007). The infant to reproductive female ratio was affected by humidity under tree stands, and dietary plant density at sapling and pole stages (equation: Y = -1.432 + 2.172 RH – 0.004 Kpcg + 0.003 Ktg, R2 = 82.0% with significance level of 0.001). This research confirmed the importance of population parameters in determining the minimum viable population, and that MVP varied according to habitat characteristics (especially food availability). It would be difficult therefore, to formulate a general mathematical equation model for determining a harvesting quota for the species as a whole.

Keywords: harvesting, long-tailed macaque, population, quota

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Authors: Mohammad Besharatloo

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Intrusion detection is an important research topic in network security because of increasing growth in the use of computer network services. Intrusion detection is done with the aim of detecting the unauthorized use or abuse in the networks and systems by the intruders. Therefore, the intrusion detection system is an efficient tool to control the user's access through some predefined regulations. Since, the data used in intrusion detection system has high dimension, a proper representation is required to show the basis structure of this data. Therefore, it is necessary to eliminate the redundant features to create the best representation subset. In the proposed method, a hybrid model of differential evolution and firefly algorithms was employed to choose the best subset of properties. In addition, decision tree and support vector machine (SVM) are adopted to determine the quality of the selected properties. In the first, the sorted population is divided into two sub-populations. These optimization algorithms were implemented on these sub-populations, respectively. Then, these sub-populations are merged to create next repetition population. The performance evaluation of the proposed method is done based on KDD Cup99. The simulation results show that the proposed method has better performance than the other methods in this context.

Keywords: intrusion detection system, differential evolution, firefly algorithm, support vector machine, decision tree

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Authors: Mahmoud I. Syam, Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, Amer I. Al-Omari

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Stratified double extreme ranked set sampling (SDERSS) method is introduced and considered for estimating the population mean. The SDERSS is compared with the simple random sampling (SRS), stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS) and stratified simple set sampling (SSRS). It is shown that the SDERSS estimator is an unbiased of the population mean and more efficient than the estimators using SRS, SRSS and SSRS when the underlying distribution of the variable of interest is symmetric or asymmetric.

Keywords: double extreme ranked set sampling, extreme ranked set sampling, ranked set sampling, stratified double extreme ranked set sampling

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Authors: Mohamad Reza Khodabakhsh

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Physical activity is important because it affects the stress and mental health of the elderly. The purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between the physical activity of the elderly and stress and mental health. The current research is correlational research, and the studied population includes all the elderly who are engaged in sports in the parks of Mashhad city in 2021. The whole community consists of 200 people. Sampling was done by the headcount method. The tool used in this research is a questionnaire. The physical activity questionnaire is Likert. General GHQ is based on the self-report method. The study method is correlation type to find the relationship between predictor and predicted variables, and the multiple regression method was used for the relationships between the sub-components. And the results showed that physical activity has the effect of reducing the stress of the elderly and improving their mental health. In general, the results of this research indicate the confirmation of the research hypotheses.

Keywords: relationship, physical activity, stress, mental health, elderly

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Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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Authors: Andi Darmawan, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

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Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease in human that occurred if pancreas cannot produce enough of insulin hormone or the body uses ineffectively insulin hormone which causes increasing level of glucose in the blood, or it was called hyperglycemia. In Indonesia, DM is a serious disease on health because it can cause blindness, kidney disease, diabetic feet (gangrene), and stroke. The type of DM criteria can also be divided based on the main causes; they are DM type 1, type 2, and gestational. Diabetes type 1 or previously known as insulin-independent diabetes is due to a lack of production of insulin hormone. Diabetes type 2 or previously known as non-insulin dependent diabetes is due to ineffective use of insulin while gestational diabetes is a hyperglycemia that found during pregnancy. The most one type commonly found in patient is DM type 2. The main factors of this disease are genetic (A) and life style (E). Those disease with 2 factors can be constructed with additive genetic and unique environment (AE) model. In this article was discussed parameter estimation of AE model using Bayesian method and the inheritance character simulation on parent-offspring. On the AE model, there are response variable, predictor variables, and parameters were capable of representing the number of population on research. The population can be measured through a taken random sample. The response and predictor variables can be determined by sample while the parameters are unknown, so it was required to estimate the parameters based on the sample. Estimation of AE model parameters was obtained based on a joint posterior distribution. The simulation was conducted to get the value of genetic variance and life style variance. The results of simulation are 0.3600 for genetic variance and 0.0899 for life style variance. Therefore, the variance of genetic factor in DM type 2 is greater than life style.

Keywords: AE model, Bayesian method, diabetes mellitus type 2, genetic, life style

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Authors: Muhammad Jawwad, Riffat Iqbal

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The Socratic method, also known as the dialectical method and elenctic method, has significant relevance in the contemporary educational system. It can be incorporated into modern-day educational systems theoretically as well as practically. Being interactive and dialogue-based in nature, this teaching approach is followed by critical thinking and innovation. The pragmatic value of the Dialectical Method has been discussed in this article, and the limitations of the Socratic method have also been highlighted. The interactive Method of Socrates can be used in many subjects for students of different grades. The Limitations and delimitations of the Method have also been discussed for its proper implementation. This article has attempted to elaborate and analyze the teaching method of Socrates with all its pre-suppositions and Epistemological character.

Keywords: Socratic method, dialectical method, knowledge, teaching, virtue

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Authors: Simiso Fisokuhle Nyandeni

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The environment is one of the major components of intergenerational equity under sustainability; however, this component has been facing a lot of issues/crises, which include those that are caused by natural systems due to the actions of humans. Although some of those environmental issues may occur from natural causes, however, climate change effects have shown to increase rapidly due to human behavior, which led to the increase in greenhouse emissions and the over-exploitation of natural resources that maintain an ecological balance in our environment. Based on the recent projections, the growing population tends to outstrip the environmental resources, and as a result, the rapid depletion of natural resources that maintain ecological balance within the environment has resulted in such environmental issues. This paper has adopted desktop analysis to address the main objective, which seeks to address the effects of population dynamics on environmental issues and what needs to be done to maintain the ecological balance between the growing population and the limited resources that are available; thus, the collective data sources were used to justify the literature in order to get adequate results to influence the potential findings. The major findings postulate that there is an ecological imbalance between limited resources available and the growing population; as a result, the environment is taking action against humanity through climate change impacts. Hence findings further outline that in order to prevent such impacts, there should be drastic interventions by the governments (all stakeholders should be involved in decision-making; Governmental or non-governmental institutions, scientists, researchers, etc.) around the world to maintain this ecological balance and also to prioritize the adaptation measures. Therefore, this paper seeks to examine the implications of population dynamics on the environmental issues and what needs to be done in order to maintain this ecological balance between the growing population and environmental resources; hence, this review will be based on the climate change context.

Keywords: population dynamics, climate change, environment, sustainability

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Authors: Adam Abdullahi Mohammed

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Performance appraisal is an assessment made to ensure the level of a worker’s productivity in a given period of time. The appraisal system is divided into two categories that are traditional methods and modern methods, with emphasis based on the evaluation of work results. In the traditional approach of staff appraisal, which puts more emphasis on individual traits, supervisors are required to measure employees through interactions based on what they achieved with reference to job descriptions, as well as rating them based on questionnaires without staff interaction. These methods are not effective because staff may give biased information. The study will attempt to assess the effect of performance appraisal on employee productivity at Yobe State University, Damaturu. It is aimed at assessing the process, methods, and objectives of performance appraisal and its feedback to know how they affect the success of the appraisal, its results, and employee productivity. In this study, a quantitative research method is adopted in collecting and analyzing data, and a questionnaire will be used as data collecting instrument. As it is a case study, the target population is the staff of the department of Islamic Studies. The research will employ a census sampling technique where all the subjects in the target populations are given a chance to participate in the study. This sampling method was considered because the entire target population is considered researchable. The expected findings are that staff performance appraisal in the department of Islamic Studies has effects on employee productivity; this is to say if it is given due consideration and the needful being done will improve employee productivity.

Keywords: performance appraisal, employee productivity, Yobe state University, appraisal feedback

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Authors: O. Anan, D. Böhning, A. Maruotti

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The purpose of the study is to estimate the elusive target population size under a truncated count model that accounts for heterogeneity. The purposed estimator is based on the generalized Poisson distribution (GPD), which extends the Poisson distribution by adding a dispersion parameter. Thus, it becomes an useful model for capture-recapture data where concurrent events are not homogeneous. In addition, it can account for over-dispersion and under-dispersion. The ratios of neighboring frequency counts are used as a tool for investigating the validity of whether generalized Poisson or Poisson distribution. Since capture-recapture approaches do not provide the zero counts, the estimated parameters can be achieved by modifying the EM-algorithm technique for the zero-truncated generalized Poisson distribution. The properties and the comparative performance of proposed estimator were investigated through simulation studies. Furthermore, some empirical examples are represented insights on the behavior of the estimators.

Keywords: capture, recapture methods, ratio plot, heterogeneous population, zero-truncated count

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Authors: Arcady Ponosov

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Many well-known age-structured population models are derived from the celebrated McKendrick-von Foerster equation (MFE), also called the biological conservation law. A similar technique is suggested for the stochastically perturbed MFE. This technique is shown to produce stochastic versions of the deterministic population models, which appear to be very different from those one can construct by simply appending additive stochasticity to deterministic equations. In particular, it is shown that stochastic Nicholson’s blowflies model should contain both additive and multiplicative stochastic noises. The suggested transformation technique is similar to that used in the deterministic case. The difference is hidden in the formulas for the exact solutions of the simplified boundary value problem for the stochastically perturbed MFE. The analysis is also based on the theory of stochastic delay differential equations.

Keywords: boundary value problems, population models, stochastic delay differential equations, stochastic partial differential equation

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Authors: Karlygash Tulendieva

Abstract:

Presently vaccination is the most effective method of prevention of flu and its complications. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of the increase of coverage of the population of South Kazakhstan region with flu vaccination and decrease of the ARVI morbidity. The analysis was performed on the data of flu vaccination of risk groups, including children under one year and pregnant women. Data on ARVI morbidity during 2010-2015 and data on vaccination were taken from the reports of the Epidemiological Surveillance Unit of Department of Consumers’ Rights Protection of South Kazakhstan region. Coverage with flu vaccination of the risk groups was annually increasing and in 2015 it reached 16% (450,000/2,800,682) from the total population. The ARVI morbidity rate in the entire population in 2010 was 2,010.4 per 100,000 of the population and decreased 3.2 times to 609.9 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Annual growth was observed from 2010 to 2015 of specific weight of the vaccinated main risk groups: healthcare workers by 51% (from 17,331 in 2010 to 33,538 in 2015), children with chronic pulmonary and cardio-vascular diseases, immune deficiency, weak and sickly children above six months by 39% (from 63,122 in 2010 to 158,023 in 2015), adults with chronic co-morbidities by 27% (from 44,271 in 2010 to 162,595 in 2015), persons above 65 by 17% (from 10,276 in 2010 to 57,875 in 2015), and annual coverage of pregnant women on second or third trimester from 34,443 in 2010 to 37,969 in 2015. Starting from 2013 and until 2015 vaccination was performed in the region with coverage of at least 90% of children from 6 months to one year. The ARVI morbidity in this age group decreased 3.3 times from 8,687.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2010 to 2,585.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Vaccination of pregnant women on 2-3 trimester was started in the region in 2012. Annual increase of vaccination coverage of pregnant women from 86.1% (34,443/40,000) in 2012 to 95% (37,969/40,000) in 2015 decreased the morbidity 1.5 times from 4,828.8 per 100,000 of population in 2012 to 3,022.7 per 100,000 of population in 2015. Following the increase of vaccination coverage of the population in South Kazakhstan region, the trend was observed of decrease of ARVI morbidity rates among the population and main risk groups, among pregnant women and children under one year.

Keywords: acute respiratory viral infections, flu, risk groups, vaccination

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Siriniya Siribrahmanakul

Abstract:

Introduction:SARsCOVID-19 is rapidly spreading, and some people may exhibit severe symptoms. Mortality rate of 2.0–3.0% with COVID-19 infection atworldwide. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA), located on chromosome 6, consist of HLA class I and class II. HLA are used by the immune system to attach self-antigens. Previous studies, HLA-DRB1*01:01,HLA-DRB1*12:01and HLA-DRB1*14:04 were, showed significant difference with severe COVID-19 in the Chinese population by p-value < 0.05. Objective: We investigated the prevalence of HLA-DRB1 alleles associated with severe COVID-19 in Thai population. Materials and Methods:200 DNA samples were isolated from EDTA blood using the MagNAprue Compact Nucleic Acid Isolation kits.HLA-DRB1alleles were genotyped using sequence-specific oligonucleotides (PCR-SSOs). Results:The frequency of HLA-DRB1 alleles in Thai population wereHLA-DRB1*12:02 (15.75%), HLA-DRB1*15:02 (14.50%), HLA-DRB1*09:01 (11.50%), HLA-DRB1*07:01 (9.50%), HLA-DRB1*03:01,HLA-DRB1*05:01 (5.75%), HLA-DRB1*14:01 (5.50%), HLA-DRB1*16:02 (4.50%), HLA-DRB1*04:05 (4.00%), HLA-DRB1*14:03 (3.25%), HLA-DRB1*10:01 (2.25%) and HLA-DRB1*13:02 (2.00%). Particularly, HLA-DRB1*12:02 allele was the highest allele frequency presented in the four regions groups of Thai population. Furthermore, the HLA-DRB1* alleles associated with severe COVID-19, which consists ofHLA-DRB1*14:04(2.00 %) and HLA-DRB1*12:01(0.50%) in Thai population, whereas HLA-DRB1*01:01 allele was not found in this population. HLA-DRB1*14:04 and HLA-DRB1*12:01alleles were similarly distributed in four regions populations in Thailand (p-value > 0.05). The alleles frequencies of HLA-DRB1*14:04 and HLA-DRB1*12:01, which associated with severe COVID-19, had no significant differences between Thai population, South China population, South Africa population, and South Koreapopulation (p-value > 0.05). Conclusions: Particularly, this study has focused on allele frequency of HLA-DRB1*14:04in a healthy Thai population to evaluating their impact on the severe COVID-19. Furthermore, our research needs to be done in larger numbers of Thai patients.

Keywords: HLA-DRB1, allele frequency, Thai population, COVID-19 marker

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Evelyn Nwamaka Ogbeide-Osaretin, Bright Orhewere

Abstract:

This study examined the role of the population in the linkage between energy consumption and economic development in Nigeria. Time series data on energy consumption, population, and economic development were used for the period 1995 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag -Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) was engaged. Economic development had a negative substantial impact on energy consumption in the long run. Population growth had a positive significant effect on energy consumption. Government expenditure was also found to impact the level of energy consumption, while energy consumption is not a function of oil price in Nigeria.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, energy consumption, population, economic development, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 146