Search results for: nonlinear ordinary differential equations

Authors: Terrell Strayhorn

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The lack of diversity in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields is a persistent and concerning issue. One contributing factor to the underrepresentation of minority groups in STEM fields is a lack of sense of belonging, which can lead to lower levels of academic engagement, motivation, and achievement. In particular, Black students have been shown to experience lower levels of sense of belonging in STEM compared to their white peers. This study aimed to explore the effects of a psychological intervention on Black students' sense of belonging in physics and math courses at historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) and predominantly white institutions (PWIs). The study used a randomized controlled trial design and included 305 Black undergraduate students enrolled in physics or math courses at HBCUs and PWIs in the United States. Participants were randomly assigned to either an intervention group or a control group. The intervention consisted of a brief psychological, video-based intervention designed to enhance sense of belonging, which was delivered in a single session. The control group received no intervention. The primary outcome measure was sense of belonging in physics and math courses, as assessed by a validated self-report measure. Other outcomes included academic engagement, motivation, and achievement as measured by physics and math (course) grades. Preliminary results show that the intervention has a significant positive effect on Black students' sense of belonging in physics and math courses, with a moderate effect size. The intervention also had a significant positive effect on academic engagement and motivation, but not on academic achievement. Importantly, the effects of the intervention were larger for Black students enrolled at PWIs compared to those enrolled at HBCUs. Findings, at present, suggest that a brief psychological web-based intervention can enhance Black students' sense of belonging in physics and math courses, and that the effects may be particularly strong for Black students enrolled at PWIs, although they are not negligible for Black students at HBCUs. This is an important finding given the persistent underrepresentation of Black students in STEM fields, the growing number of Black students at PWIs, and the potential for enhancing sense of belonging to improve academic outcomes and increase diversity in these fields. The study has several limitations, including a relatively small sample size and a lack of long-term follow-up. Future research could explore the generalizability of these findings to other minority groups and other STEM fields, as well as the potential for longer-term interventions to sustain and enhance the effects observed in this study. Overall, this study highlights the potential for psychological interventions to enhance sense of belonging and improve academic outcomes for Black students in STEM courses, and underscores the importance of addressing sense of belonging as a key factor in promoting diversity and equity in STEM fields.

Keywords: sense of belonging, achievement, racial equity, postsecondary education, intervention

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Authors: Brajesh

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Introduction: It is generally believed that women's lack power to making decision may restrict their use of modern contraceptives practices. However, few studies have examined the different dimensions of women's empowerment and contraceptive use in Asian content. Pervasive gendered inequities and norms regarding the subordination of women give Asian men disproportionately more power than women, particularly in relation to the sex. We hypothesize that lack of sexual empowerment may pose an important barrier to reproductive health and adoption of family planning methods. Using the Demographic Health Survey, we examine the association between women’s sexual empowerment and contraceptive use in Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Objectives: To understand the trend and pattern of contraceptive choices and use among women due to sexual empowerment in selected south Asian countries. To examine the association between women’s sexual empowerment and contraceptive practices among non-pregnant married and partnered women in Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Methods: Data came from the latest round of Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2010-12 in and during deacde1990 -92 in Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Responses from married or cohabiting women aged 15-49 years were analyzed for six dimensions of empowerment and the current use of female-only methods or couple of methods. Bi-variate and multivariate multinomial regressions were used to identify associations between the empowerment dimensions and method use. Results: Positive associations were found between the overall empowerment score and method use in all countries (relative risk ratios, 1.1-1.3). In multivariate analysis, household economic decision-making was associated with the use of either female-only or couple methods (relative risk ratios -1. 1 for all), as was agreement on fertility preferences (RRR-1.3-1.6) and the ability to negotiate sexual activity (RRR -1. 1-1.2). In Bangladesh, women's negative attitudes toward domestic violence were correlated with the use of couple of methods (RRR -1. 1). Increasing levels of sexual empowerment were found to be associated with use of contraceptives, even after adjusting for demographic predictors of contraceptive use. This association is moderated by the wealth. Formal education, increasing wealth, and being in an unmarried partnership are associated with contraceptive use, whereas women who identify as being Muslim are less likely to use contraceptives than those who identify as being Hindus or other. These findings suggest that to achieve universal access to reproductive health services, gendered disparities in sexual empowerment, particularly among economically disadvantaged women, need to be better addressed. Conclusions: Intervention programs aimed at increasing contraceptive use may need to involve different approaches, including promoting couples' discussion of fertility preferences and family planning, improving women's self-efficacy in negotiating sexual activity and increasing their economic independence. Policies are needed to encourage the rural families to give their girls a chance of attending higher level education and professional course so that can get a better job opportunity and can economically support their family as son are expected to do.

Keywords: reproductive and child health (RCH), relative risk ratios (RRR), demographic and health survey (DHS), women’s sexual empowerment (WSE)

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Authors: Arturo Galvan, Jatziri Y. Moreno-Martinez, Daniel Arroyo-Montoya, Jose M. Gutierrez-Villalobos

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Bridges are one of the most seismically vulnerable structures on highway transportation systems. The general process for assessing the seismic vulnerability of a bridge involves the evaluation of its overall capacity and demand. One of the most common procedures to obtain this capacity is by means of pushover analysis of the structure. Typically, the bridge capacity is assessed using non-linear static methods or non-linear dynamic analyses. The non-linear dynamic approaches use step by step numerical solutions for assessing the capacity with the consuming computer time inconvenience. In this study, a nonlinear static analysis (‘pushover analysis’) was performed to predict the collapse mechanism of a typical bridge built in the central zone of Mexico (Celaya, Guanajuato). The bridge superstructure consists of three simple supported spans with a total length of 76 m: 22 m of the length of extreme spans and 32 m of length of the central span. The deck width is of 14 m and the concrete slab depth is of 18 cm. The bridge is built by means of frames of five piers with hollow box-shaped sections. The dimensions of these piers are 7.05 m height and 1.20 m diameter. The numerical model was created using a commercial software considering linear and non-linear elements. In all cases, the piers were represented by frame type elements with geometrical properties obtained from the structural project and construction drawings of the bridge. The deck was modeled with a mesh of rectangular thin shell (plate bending and stretching) finite elements. The moment-curvature analysis was performed for the sections of the piers of the bridge considering in each pier the effect of confined concrete and its reinforcing steel. In this way, plastic hinges were defined on the base of the piers to carry out the pushover analysis. In addition, time history analyses were performed using 19 accelerograms of real earthquakes that have been registered in Guanajuato. In this way, the displacements produced by the bridge were determined. Finally, pushover analysis was applied through the control of displacements in the piers to obtain the overall capacity of the bridge before the failure occurs. It was concluded that the lateral deformation of the piers due to a critical earthquake occurred in this zone is almost imperceptible due to the geometry and reinforcement demanded by the current design standards and compared to its displacement capacity, they were excessive. According to the analysis, it was found that the frames built with five piers increase the rigidity in the transverse direction of the bridge. Hence it is proposed to reduce these frames of five piers to three piers, maintaining the same geometrical characteristics and the same reinforcement in each pier. Also, the mechanical properties of materials (concrete and reinforcing steel) were maintained. Once a pushover analysis was performed considering this configuration, it was concluded that the bridge would continue having a “correct” seismic behavior, at least for the 19 accelerograms considered in this study. In this way, costs in material, construction, time and labor would be reduced in this study case.

Keywords: collapse mechanism, moment-curvature analysis, overall capacity, push-over analysis

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Authors: Andrey Cherdantsev, Mikhail Cherdantsev, Sergey Isaenkov, Dmitriy Markovich

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In annular gas-liquid flow, liquid flows as a film along pipe walls sheared by high-velocity gas stream. Film surface is covered by large-scale disturbance waves which affect pressure drop and heat transfer in the system and are necessary for entrainment of liquid droplets from film surface into the core of gas stream. Disturbance waves are a highly complex and their properties are affected by numerous parameters. One of such aspects is flow development, i.e., change of flow properties with the distance from the inlet. In the present work, this question is studied using brightness-based laser-induced fluorescence (BBLIF) technique. This method enables one to perform simultaneous measurements of local film thickness in large number of points with high sampling frequency. In the present experiments first 50 cm of upward and downward annular flow in a vertical pipe of 11.7 mm i.d. is studied with temporal resolution of 10 kHz and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm. Thus, spatiotemporal evolution of film surface can be investigated, including scenarios of formation, acceleration and coalescence of disturbance waves. The behaviour of disturbance waves' velocity depending on phases flow rates and downstream distance was investigated. Besides measuring the waves properties, the goal of the work was to investigate the interrelation between disturbance waves properties and integral characteristics of the flow such as interfacial shear stress and flow rate of dispersed phase. In particular, it was shown that the initial acceleration of disturbance waves, defined by the value of shear stress, linearly decays with downstream distance. This lack of acceleration which may even lead to deceleration is related to liquid entrainment. Flow rate of disperse phase linearly grows with downstream distance. During entrainment events, liquid is extracted directly from disturbance waves, reducing their mass, area of interaction to the gas shear and, hence, velocity. Passing frequency of disturbance waves at each downstream position was measured automatically with a new algorithm of identification of characteristic lines of individual disturbance waves. Scenarios of coalescence of individual disturbance waves were identified. Transition from initial high-frequency Kelvin-Helmholtz waves appearing at the inlet to highly nonlinear disturbance waves with lower frequency was studied near the inlet using 3D realisation of BBLIF method in the same cylindrical channel and in a rectangular duct with cross-section of 5 mm by 50 mm. It was shown that the initial waves are generally two-dimensional but are promptly broken into localised three-dimensional wavelets. Coalescence of these wavelets leads to formation of quasi two-dimensional disturbance waves. Using cross-correlation analysis, loss and restoration of two-dimensionality of film surface with downstream distance were studied quantitatively. It was shown that all the processes occur closer to the inlet at higher gas velocities.

Keywords: annular flow, disturbance waves, entrainment, flow development

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Authors: Leslie Raphael de M. Ferraz, Salvana Priscylla M. Costa, Tarcyla de A. Gomes, Giovanna Christinne R. M. Schver, Cristóvão R. da Silva, Magaly Andreza M. de Lyra, Danilo Augusto F. Fontes, Larissa A. Rolim, Amanda Carla Q. M. Vieira, Miracy M. de Albuquerque, Pedro J. Rolim-Neto

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Efavirenz (EFV) is a drug used as first-line treatment of AIDS. However, it has poor aqueous solubility and wettability, presenting problems in the gastrointestinal tract absorption and bioavailability. One of the most promising strategies to improve the solubility is the use of solid dispersions (SD). Therefore, this study aimed to characterize SD EFZ with the polymers: PVP-K30, PVPVA 64 and SOLUPLUS in order to find an optimal formulation to compose a future pharmaceutical product for AIDS therapy. Initially, Physical Mixtures (PM) and SD with the polymers were obtained containing 10, 20, 50 and 80% of drug (w/w) by the solvent method. The best formulation obtained between the SD was selected by in vitro dissolution test. Finally, the drug-carrier system chosen, in all ratios obtained, were analyzed by the following techniques: Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), polarization microscopy, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and spectrophotometry of absorption in the region of infrared (IR). From the dissolution profiles of EFV, PM and SD, the values of area Under The Curve (AUC) were calculated. The data showed that the AUC of all PM is greater than the isolated EFV, this result is derived from the hydrophilic properties of the polymers thus favoring a decrease in surface tension between the drug and the dissolution medium. In adittion, this ensures an increasing of wettability of the drug. In parallel, it was found that SD whom had higher AUC values, were those who have the greatest amount of polymer (with only 10% drug). As the amount of drug increases, it was noticed that these results either decrease or are statistically similar. The AUC values of the SD using the three different polymers, followed this decreasing order: SD PVPVA 64-EFV 10% > SD PVP-K30-EFV 10% > SD Soluplus®-EFV 10%. The DSC curves of SD’s did not show the characteristic endothermic event of drug melt process, suggesting that the EFV was converted to its amorphous state. The analysis of polarized light microscopy showed significant birefringence of the PM’s, but this was not observed in films of SD’s, thus suggesting the conversion of the drug from the crystalline to the amorphous state. In electron micrographs of all PM, independently of the percentage of the drug, the crystal structure of EFV was clearly detectable. Moreover, electron micrographs of the SD with the two polymers in different ratios investigated, we observed the presence of particles with irregular size and morphology, also occurring an extensive change in the appearance of the polymer, not being possible to differentiate the two components. IR spectra of PM corresponds to the overlapping of polymer and EFV bands indicating thereby that there is no interaction between them, unlike the spectra of all SD that showed complete disappearance of the band related to the axial deformation of the NH group of EFV. Therefore, this study was able to obtain a suitable formulation to overcome the solubility limitations of the EFV, since SD PVPVA 64-EFZ 10% was chosen as the best system in delay crystallization of the prototype, reaching higher levels of super saturation.

Keywords: characterization, dissolution, Efavirenz, solid dispersions

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Authors: D. P. Houhoula, J. Papaparaskevas, S. Konteles, A. Dargenta, A. Farka, C. Spyrou, M. Ziaka, S. Koussisis, E. Charvalos

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Objectives: Nanotechnology is providing revolutionary opportunities for the rapid and simple diagnosis of many infectious diseases. Staphylococcus aureus, Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella enteritis are important human pathogens. Diagnostic assays for bacterial culture and identification are time consuming and laborious. There is an urgent need to develop rapid, sensitive, and inexpensive diagnostic tests. In this study, a gold nanoprobe strategy developed and relies on the colorimetric differentiation of specific DNA sequences based approach on differential aggregation profiles in the presence or absence of specific target hybridization. Method: Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) were purchased from Nanopartz. They were conjugated with thiolated oligonucleotides specific for the femA gene for the identification of members of Staphylococcus aureus, the mecA gene for the differentiation of Staphylococcus aureus and MRSA Staphylococcus aureus, hly gene encoding the pore-forming cytolysin listeriolysin for the identification of Listeria monocytogenes and the invA sequence for the identification of Salmonella enteritis. DNA isolation from Staphylococcus aureus Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella enteritis cultures was performed using the commercial kit Nucleospin Tissue (Macherey Nagel). Specifically 20μl of DNA was diluted in 10mMPBS (pH5). After the denaturation of 10min, 20μl of AuNPs was added followed by the annealing step at 58oC. The presence of a complementary target prevents aggregation with the addition of acid and the solution remains pink, whereas in the opposite event it turns to purple. The color could be detected visually and it was confirmed with an absorption spectrum. Results: Specifically, 0.123 μg/μl DNA of St. aureus, L.monocytogenes and Salmonella enteritis was serially diluted from 1:10 to 1:100. Blanks containing PBS buffer instead of DNA were used. The application of the proposed method on isolated bacteria produced positive results with all the species of St. aureus and L. monocytogenes and Salmonella enteritis using the femA, mecA, hly and invA genes respectively. The minimum detection limit of the assay was defined at 0.2 ng/μL of DNA. Below of 0.2 ng/μL of bacterial DNA the solution turned purple after addition of HCl, defining the minimum detection limit of the assay. None of the blank samples was positive. The specificity was 100%. The application of the proposed method produced exactly the same results every time (n = 4) the evaluation was repeated (100% repeatability) using the femA, hly and invA genes. Using the gene mecA for the differentiation of Staphylococcus aureus and MRSA Staphylococcus aureus the method had a repeatability 50%. Conclusion: The proposed method could be used as a highly specific and sensitive screening tool for the detection and differentiation of Staphylococcus aureus Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella enteritis. The use AuNPs for the colorimetric detection of DNA targets represents an inexpensive and easy-to-perform alternative to common molecular assays. The technology described here, may develop into a platform that could accommodate detection of many bacterial species.

Keywords: gold nanoparticles, pathogens, nanotechnology, bacteria

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Authors: Youssef I. Hafez

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Since ancient history rivers have been the fostering and favorite place for people and civilizations to live and exist along river banks. However, due to floods and droughts, especially sever conditions due to global warming and climate change, river channels are completely evolving and moving in the lateral direction changing their plan form either through straightening of curved reaches (meander cut-off) or increasing meandering curvature. The lateral shift or shrink of a river channel affects severely the river banks and the flood plain with tremendous impact on the surrounding environment. Therefore, understanding the formation and the continual processes of river channel meandering is of paramount importance. So far, in spite of the huge number of publications about river-meandering, there has not been a satisfactory theory or approach that provides a clear explanation of the formation of river meanders and the mechanics of their associated geometries. In particular two parameters are often needed to describe meander geometry. The first one is a scale parameter such as the meander arc length. The second is a shape parameter such as the maximum angle a meander path makes with the channel mean down path direction. These two parameters, if known, can determine the meander path and geometry as for example when they are incorporated in the well known sine-generated curve. In this study, a uniform excess energy theory is used to illustrate the origin and mechanics of formation of river meandering. This theory advocates that the longitudinal imbalance between the valley and channel slopes (with the former is greater than the second) leads to formation of curved meander channel in order to reduce the excess energy through its expenditure as transverse energy loss. Two relations are developed based on this theory; one for the determination of river channel radius of curvature at the bend apex (shape parameter) and the other for the determination of river channel sinuosity. The sinuosity equation tested very well when applied to existing available field data. In addition, existing model data were used to develop a relation between the meander arc length and the Darcy-Weisback friction factor. Then, the meander wave length was determined from the equations of the arc length and the sinuosity. The developed equation compared well with available field data. Effects of the transverse bed slope and grain size on river channel sinuosity are addressed. In addition, the concept of maximum channel sinuosity is introduced in order to explain the changes of river channel plan form due to changes in flow discharges and sediment loads induced by global warming and climate changes.

Keywords: river channel meandering, sinuosity, radius of curvature, meander arc length, uniform excess energy theory, transverse energy loss, transverse bed slope, flow discharges, sediment loads, grain size, climate change, global warming

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Authors: Ana Paula S. Horodenski, Priscila Pelegrini, Salli Baggenstoss

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The brewing industry with artisanal concepts seeks to serve a specific market, with diversified production that has been gaining ground in the national environment, also in the Amazon region. This growth is due to the more demanding consumer, with a diversified taste that wants to try new types of beer, enjoying products with new aromas, flavors, as a differential of what is so widely spread through the big industrial brands. Thus, through qualitative research methods, the study aimed to investigate how is the process of managing the production of a craft brewery in a city in the northern State of Mato Grosso (BRAZIL), providing knowledge of production processes and strategies in the industry. With the efficient use of resources, it is possible to obtain the necessary quality and provide better performance and differentiation of the company, besides analyzing the best management model. The research is descriptive with a qualitative approach through a case study. For the data collection, a semi-structured interview was elaborated, composed of the areas: microbrewery characterization, artisan beer production process, and the company supply chain management. Also, production processes were observed during technical visits. With the study, it was verified that the artisan brewery researched develops preventive maintenance strategies with the inputs, machines, and equipment, so that the quality of the product and the production process are achieved. It was observed that the distance from the supplying centers makes the management of processes and the supply chain be carried out with a longer planning time so that the delivery of the final product is satisfactory. The production process of the brewery is composed of machines and equipment that allows the control and quality of the product, which the manager states that for the productive capacity of the industry and its consumer market, the available equipment meets the demand. This study also contributes to highlight one of the challenges for the development of small breweries in front of the market giants, that is, the legislation, which fits the microbreweries as producers of alcoholic beverages. This makes the micro and small business segment to be taxed as a major, who has advantages in purchasing large batches of raw materials and tax incentives because they are large employers and tax pickers. It was possible to observe that the supply chain management system relies on spreadsheets and notes that are done manually, which could be simplified with a computer program to streamline procedures and reduce risks and failures of the manual process. In relation to the control of waste and effluents affected by the industry is outsourced and meets the needs. Finally, the results showed that the industry uses preventive maintenance as a productive strategy, which allows better conditions for the production and quality of artisanal beer. The quality is directly related to the satisfaction of the final consumer, being prized and performed throughout the production process, with the selection of better inputs, the effectiveness of the production processes and the relationship with the commercial partners.

Keywords: artisanal brewery, production management, production processes, supply chain

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Authors: Mbonigaba Swale

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Malaria is an infection or disease caused by parasites (Plasmodium Falciparum — causes severe Malaria, plasmodium Vivax, Plasmodium Ovale, and Plasmodium Malariae), transmitted by bites of infected anopheles (female) mosquitoes to humans. These vectors comprise of two types in Africa, particularly in Uganda, i.e. anopheles fenestus and Anopheles gambaie (‘example Anopheles arabiensis,,); feeds on man inside the house mainly at dusk, mid-night and dawn and rests indoors and makes them effective transmitters (vectors) of the disease. People in both urban and rural areas have consistently become prone to repetitive attacks of malaria, causing a lot of deaths and significantly increasing the poverty levels of the rural poor. Malaria is a national problem; it causes a lot of maternal pre-natal and antenatal disorders, anemia in pregnant mothers, low birth weights for the newly born, convulsions and epilepsy among the infants. Cumulatively, it kills about one million children every year in sub-Saharan Africa. It has been estimated to account for 25-35% of all outpatient visits, 20-45% of acute hospital admissions and 15-35% of hospital deaths. Uganda is the leading victim country, for which Rakai and Masaka districts are the most affected. So, it is not clear whether these abhorrent situations and episodes of recurrences and failure to cure from the disease are a result of poor diagnosis, prescription and dosing, treatment habits and compliance of the patients to the drugs or the ethical domain of the stake holders in relation to the main stream methodology of malaria management. The research is aimed at offering an alternative approach to manage and deal absolutely with problem by using a knowledge based software model of Artificial Intelligence (Al) that is capable of performing common-sense and cognitive reasoning so as to take decisions like the human brain would do to provide instantaneous expert solutions so as to avoid speculative simulation of the problem during differential diagnosis in the most accurate and literal inferential aspect. This system will assist physicians in many kinds of medical diagnosis, prescribing treatments and doses, and in monitoring patient responses, basing on the body weight and age group of the patient, it will be able to provide instantaneous and timely information options, alternative ways and approaches to influence decision making during case analysis. The computerized system approach, a new model in Uganda termed as “Software Aided Treatment” (SAT) will try to change the moral and ethical approach and influence conduct so as to improve the skills, experience and values (social and ethical) in the administration and management of the disease and drugs (combination therapy and generics) by both the patient and the health worker.

Keywords: knowledge based software, management, treatment, diagnosis

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Authors: Aritra Das, Tanmay Mahapatra, Prabir Maharana, Sridhar Srikantiah

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In the absence of adequate well-equipped neonatal-care facilities serving rural Bihar, India, the practice of essential home-based newborn-care remains critically important for reduction of neonatal and infant mortality, especially among pre-term and small-for-gestational-age (Low-birth-weight) newborns. To improve the child health parameters in Bihar, ‘Very-Low-Birth-Weight (vLBW) Tracking’ intervention is being conducted by CARE India, since 2015, targeting public facility-delivered newborns weighing ≤2000g at birth, to improve their identification and provision of immediate post-natal care. To assess the effectiveness of the intervention, 200 public health facilities were randomly selected from all functional public-sector delivery points in Bihar and various outcomes were tracked among the neonates born there. Thus far, one pre-intervention (Feb-Apr’2015-born neonates) and three post-intervention (for Sep-Oct’2015, Sep-Oct’2016 and Sep-Oct’2017-born children) follow-up studies were conducted. In each round, interviews were conducted with the mothers/caregivers of successfully-tracked children to understand outcome, service-coverage and care-seeking during the neonatal period. Data from 171 matched facilities common across all rounds were analyzed using SAS-9.4. Identification of neonates with birth-weight ≤ 2000g improved from 2% at baseline to 3.3%-4% during post-intervention. All indicators pertaining to post-natal home-visits by frontline-workers (FLWs) improved. Significant improvements between baseline and post-intervention rounds were also noted regarding mothers being informed about ‘weak’ child – at the facility (R1 = 25 to R4 = 50%) and at home by FLW (R1 = 19%, to R4 = 30%). Practice of ‘Kangaroo-Mother-Care (KMC)’– an important component of essential newborn care – showed significant improvement in postintervention period compared to baseline in both facility (R1 = 15% to R4 = 31%) and home (R1 = 10% to R4=29%). Increasing trend was noted regarding detection and birth weight-recording of the extremely low-birth-weight newborns (< 1500 g) showed an increasing trend. Moreover, there was a downward trend in mortality across rounds, in each birth-weight strata (< 1500g, 1500-1799g and >= 1800g). After adjustment for the differential distribution of birth-weights, mortality was found to decline significantly from R1 (22.11%) to R4 (11.87%). Significantly declining trend was also observed for both early and late neonatal mortality and morbidities. Multiple regression analysis identified - birth during immediate post-intervention phase as well as that during the maintenance phase, birth weight > 1500g, children of low-parity mothers, receiving visit from FLW in the first week and/or receiving advice on extra care from FLW as predictors of survival during neonatal period among vLBW newborns. vLBW tracking was found to be a successful and sustainable intervention and has already been handed over to the Government.

Keywords: weak newborn tracking, very low birth weight babies, newborn care, community response

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Authors: Madan Chandra Maurya, A. R. Dar

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Among the entire natural calamities earthquake is the one which is most devastating. If the losses due to all other calamities are added still it will be very less than the losses due to earthquakes. So it means we must be ready to face such a situation, which is only possible if we make our structures earthquake resistant. A review of structural damages to the braced frame systems after several major earthquakes—including recent earthquakes—has identified some anticipated and unanticipated damage. This damage has prompted many engineers and researchers around the world to consider new approaches to improve the behavior of braced frame systems. Extensive experimental studies over the last fourty years of conventional buckling brace components and several braced frame specimens have been briefly reviewed, highlighting that the number of studies on the full-scale concentric braced frames is still limited. So for this reason the study surrounds the words plastic behavior, steel structure, brace frame system. In this study, there are two different analytical approaches which have been used to predict the behavior and strength of an un-braced frame. The first is referred as incremental elasto-plastic analysis a plastic approach. This method gives a complete load-deflection history of the structure until collapse. It is based on the plastic hinge concept for fully plastic cross sections in a structure under increasing proportional loading. In this, the incremental elasto-plastic analysis- hinge by hinge method is used in this study because of its simplicity to know the complete load- deformation history of two storey un-braced scaled model. After that the experiments were conducted on two storey scaled building model with and without bracing system to know the true or experimental load deformation curve of scaled model. Only way, is to understand and analyze these techniques and adopt these techniques in our structures. The study named as Plastic Behavior of Steel Frames using Different Concentric Bracing Configurations deals with all this. This study aimed at improving the already practiced traditional systems and to check the behavior and its usefulness with respect to X-braced system as reference model i.e. is how plastically it is different from X-braced. Laboratory tests involved determination of plastic behavior of these models (with and without brace) in terms of load-deformation curve. Thus, the aim of this study is to improve the lateral displacement resistance capacity by using new configuration of brace member in concentric manner which is different from conventional concentric brace. Once the experimental and manual results (using plastic approach) compared, simultaneously the results from both approach were also compared with nonlinear static analysis (pushover analysis) approach using ETABS i.e how both the previous results closely depicts the behavior in pushover curve and upto what limit. Tests results shows that all the three approaches behaves somewhat in similar manner upto yield point and also the applicability of elasto-plastic analysis (hinge by hinge method) to know the plastic behavior. Finally the outcome from three approaches shows that the newer one configuration which is chosen for study behaves in-between the plane frame (without brace or reference frame) and the conventional X-brace frame.

Keywords: elasto-plastic analysis, concentric steel braced frame, pushover analysis, ETABS

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Authors: Lei Li, Ming M. Chai, Xiao X. Lu, Jia W. Wang

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The mixing process of two liquid layers in a cylindrical container includes the upper liquid with higher density rushing into the lower liquid with lighter density, the lower liquid rising into the upper liquid, meanwhile the two liquid layers having interactions with each other, forming vortices, spreading or dispersing in others, entraining or mixing with others. It is a complex process constituted of flow instability, turbulent mixing and other multiscale physical phenomena and having a fast evolution velocity. In order to explore the mechanism of the process and make further investigations, some experiments about the interfacial instability and mixing behavior between two liquid layers bounded in different volumes are carried out, applying the planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) and the high speed camera (HSC) techniques. According to the results, the evolution of interfacial instability between immiscible liquid develops faster than theoretical rate given by the Rayleigh-Taylor Instability (RTI) theory. It is reasonable to conjecture that some mechanisms except the RTI play key roles in the mixture process of two liquid layers. From the results, it is shown that the invading velocity of the upper liquid into the lower liquid does not depend on the upper liquid's volume (height). Comparing to the cases that the upper and lower containers are of identical diameter, in the case that the lower liquid volume increases to larger geometric space, the upper liquid spreads and expands into the lower liquid more quickly during the evolution of interfacial instability, indicating that the container wall has important influence on the mixing process. In the experiments of miscible liquid layers’ mixing, the diffusion time and pattern of the liquid interfacial mixing also does not depend on the upper liquid's volumes, and when the lower liquid volume increases to larger geometric space, the action of the bounded wall on the liquid falling and rising flow will decrease, and the liquid interfacial mixing effects will also attenuate. Therefore, it is also concluded that the volume weight of upper heavier liquid is not the reason of the fast interfacial instability evolution between the two liquid layers and the bounded wall action is limited to the unstable and mixing flow. The numerical simulations of the immiscible liquid layers’ interfacial instability flow using the VOF method show the typical flow pattern agree with the experiments. However the calculated instability development is much slower than the experimental measurement. The numerical simulation of the miscible liquids’ mixing, which applying Fick’s diffusion law to the components’ transport equation, shows a much faster mixing rate than the experiments on the liquids’ interface at the initial stage. It can be presumed that the interfacial tension plays an important role in the interfacial instability between the two liquid layers bounded in finite volume.

Keywords: interfacial instability and mixing, two liquid layers, Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence (PLIF), High Speed Camera (HSC), interfacial energy and tension, Cahn-Hilliard Navier-Stokes (CHNS) equations

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Authors: Edvard P. G. Bruun

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One of the best ways of improving our understanding of reinforced concrete is through large-scale experimental testing. The gathered information is critical in making inferences about structural mechanics and deriving the mathematical models that are the basis for finite element analysis programs and design codes. An effective way of measuring the strains across a region of a specimen is by using a system of surface mounted Linear Variable Differential Transformers (LVDTs). While a single LVDT can only measure the linear strain in one direction, by combining several measurements at known angles a Mohr’s circle of strain can be derived for the whole region under investigation. This paper presents a method that can be used by researchers, which improves the accuracy and removes experimental bias in the calculation of the Mohr’s circle, using four rather than three independent strain measurements. Obtaining high quality strain data is essential, since knowing the angular deviation (shear strain) and the angle of principal strain in the region are important properties in characterizing the governing structural mechanics. For example, the Modified Compression Field Theory (MCFT) developed at the University of Toronto, is a rotating crack model that requires knowing the direction of the principal stress and strain, and then calculates the average secant stiffness in this direction. But since LVDTs can only measure average strains across a plane (i.e., between discrete points), localized cracking and spalling that typically occur in reinforced concrete, can lead to unrealistic results. To build in redundancy and improve the quality of the data gathered, the typical experimental setup for a large-scale shell specimen has four independent directions (X, Y, H, and V) that are instrumented. The question now becomes, which three should be used? The most common approach is to simply discard one of the measurements. The problem is that this can produce drastically different answers, depending on the three strain values that are chosen. To overcome this experimental bias, and to avoid simply discarding valuable data, a more rigorous approach would be to somehow make use of all four measurements. This paper presents the derivation of a method to draw what is effectively a Mohr’s circle of 'best-fit', which optimizes the circle by using all four independent strain values. The four-strain optimized Mohr’s circle approach has been utilized to process data from recent large-scale shell tests at the University of Toronto (Ruggiero, Proestos, and Bruun), where analysis of the test data has shown that the traditional three-strain method can lead to widely different results. This paper presents the derivation of the method and shows its application in the context of two reinforced concrete shells tested in pure torsion. In general, the constitutive models and relationships that characterize reinforced concrete are only as good as the experimental data that is gathered – ensuring that a rigorous and unbiased approach exists for calculating the Mohr’s circle of strain during an experiment, is of utmost importance to the structural research community.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, shell tests, Mohr’s circle, experimental research

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: J. Roberto Lopez, Hened Saade, Graciela Morales, Javier Enriquez, Raul G. Lopez

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Implementation of systems based on nanostructures for drug delivery applications have taken relevance in recent studies focused on biomedical applications. Although there are several nanostructures as drugs carriers, the use of polymeric nanoparticles (PNP) has been widely studied for this purpose, however, the main issue for these nanostructures is the size control below 50 nm with a narrow distribution size, due to they must go through different physiological barriers and avoid to be filtered by kidneys (< 10 nm) or the spleen (> 100 nm). Thus, considering these and other factors, it can be mentioned that drug-loaded nanostructures with sizes varying between 10 and 50 nm are preferred in the development and study of PNP/drugs systems. In this sense, the Semicontinuous Heterophase Polymerization (SHP) offers the possibility to obtain PNP in the desired size range. Considering the above explained, methacrylic copolymer nanoparticles were obtained under SHP. The reactions were carried out in a jacketed glass reactor with the required quantities of water, ammonium persulfate as initiator, sodium dodecyl sulfate/sodium dioctyl sulfosuccinate as surfactants, methyl methacrylate and methacrylic acid as monomers with molar ratio of 2/1, respectively. The monomer solution was dosed dropwise during reaction at 70 °C with a mechanical stirring of 650 rpm. Nanoparticles of poly(methyl methacrylate-co-methacrylic acid) were loaded with acetylsalicylic acid (ASA, aspirin) by a chemical adsorption technique. The purified latex was put in contact with a solution of ASA in dichloromethane (DCM) at 0.1, 0.2, 0.4 or 0.6 wt-%, at 35°C during 12 hours. According to the boiling point of DCM, as well as DCM and water densities, the loading process is completed when the whole DCM is evaporated. The hydrodynamic diameter was measured after polymerization by quasi-elastic light scattering and transmission electron microscopy, before and after loading procedures with ASA. The quantitative and qualitative analyses of PNP loaded with ASA were measured by infrared spectroscopy, differential scattering calorimetry and thermogravimetric analysis. Also, the molar mass distributions of polymers were determined in a gel permeation chromatograph apparatus. The load capacity and efficiency were determined by gravimetric analysis. The hydrodynamic diameter results for methacrylic PNP without ASA showed a narrow distribution with an average particle size around 10 nm and a composition methyl methacrylate/methacrylic acid molar ratio equal to 2/1, same composition of Eudragit S100, which is a commercial compound widely used as excipient. Moreover, the latex was stabilized in a relative high solids content (around 11 %), a monomer conversion almost 95 % and a number molecular weight around 400 Kg/mol. The average particle size in the PNP/aspirin systems fluctuated between 18 and 24 nm depending on the initial percentage of aspirin in the loading process, being the drug content as high as 24 % with an efficiency loading of 36 %. These average sizes results have not been reported in the literature, thus, the methacrylic nanoparticles here reported are capable to be loaded with a considerable amount of ASA and be used as a drug carrier.

Keywords: aspirin, biocompatibility, biodegradable, Eudragit S100, methacrylic nanoparticles

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Authors: Angelica Alvarez-Lee, Sergio Martinez-Diaz, Jose Luis Garcia-Corona, Humberto Lanz-Mendoza

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World aquaculture is always looking for improvements to achieve productions with high yields avoiding the infection by pathogenic agents. The best way to achieve this is to know the biological model to create alternative treatments that could be applied in the hatcheries, which results in greater economic gains and improvements in human public health. In the last decade, immunomodulation in shrimp culture with probiotics, organic acids and different carbon sources has gained great interest, mainly in larval and juvenile stages. Immune priming is associated with a strong protective effect against a later pathogen challenge. This work provides another perspective about immunostimulation from spawning until hatching. The stimulation happens during development embryos and generates resistance to infection by pathogenic bacteria. Massive spawnings of white shrimp L. vannamei were obtained and placed in experimental units with 700 mL of sterile seawater at 30 °C, salinity of 28 ppm and continuous aeration at a density of 8 embryos.mL⁻¹. The immunostimulating effect of three death strains of non-pathogenic bacterial (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus subtilis) and a pathogenic strain for white shrimp (Vibrio parahaemolyticus) was evaluated. The strains killed by heat were adjusted to O.D. 0.5, at A 600 nm, and directly added to the seawater of each unit at a ratio of 1/100 (v/v). A control group of embryos without inoculum of dead bacteria was kept under the same physicochemical conditions as the rest of the treatments throughout the experiment and used as reference. The duration of the stimulus was 12 hours, then, the larvae that hatched were collected, counted and transferred to a new experimental unit (same physicochemical conditions but at a salinity of 28 ppm) to carry out a challenge of infection against the pathogen V. parahaemolyticus, adding directly to seawater an amount 1/100 (v/v) of the live strain adjusted to an OD 0.5; at A 600 nm. Subsequently, 24 hrs after infection, nauplii survival was evaluated. The results of this work shows that, after 24 hrs, the hatching rates of immunostimulated shrimp embryos with the dead strains of B. subtillis and V. parahaemolyticus are significantly higher compared to the rest of the treatments and the control. Furthermore, survival of L. vanammei after a challenge of infection of 24 hrs against the live strain of V. parahaemolyticus is greater (P < 0.05) in the larvae immunostimulated during the embryonic development with the dead strains B. subtillis and V. parahaemolyticus, followed by those that were treated with E. coli. In summary superficial antigens can stimulate the development cells to promote hatching and can have normal development in agreeing with the optical observations, plus exist a differential response effect between each treatment post-infection. This research provides evidence of the immunostimulant effect of death pathogenic and non-pathogenic bacterial strains in the rate of hatching and oversight of shrimp L. vannamei during embryonic and larval development. This research continues evaluating the effect of these death strains on the expression of genes related to the defense priming in larvae of L. vannamei that come from massive spawning in hatcheries before and after the infection challenge against V. parahaemolyticus.

Keywords: immunostimulation, L. vannamei, hatching, survival

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Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

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Authors: Felipe M. de Freitas, Ícaro V. Soares, Lucas L. L. Fortes, Sandro T. M. Gonçalves, Úrsula D. C. Resende

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There is a dispersed energy in Radio Frequencies (RF) that can be reused to power electronics circuits such as: sensors, actuators, identification devices, among other systems, without wire connections or a battery supply requirement. In this context, there are different types of energy harvesting systems, including rectennas, coil systems, graphene and new materials. A secondary step of an energy harvesting system is the rectification of the collected signal which may be carried out, for example, by the combination of one or more Schottky diodes connected in series or shunt. In the case of a rectenna-based system, for instance, the diode used must be able to receive low power signals at ultra-high frequencies. Therefore, it is required low values of series resistance, junction capacitance and potential barrier voltage. Due to this low-power condition, voltage multiplier configurations are used such as voltage doublers or modified bridge converters. Lowpass filter (LPF) at the input, DC output filter, and a resistive load are also commonly used in the rectifier design. The electronic circuits projects are commonly analyzed through simulation in SPICE (Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis) environment. Despite the remarkable potential of SPICE-based simulators for complex circuit modeling and analysis of quasi-static electromagnetic fields interaction, i.e., at low frequency, these simulators are limited and they cannot model properly applications of microwave hybrid circuits in which there are both, lumped elements as well as distributed elements. This work proposes, therefore, the electromagnetic modelling of electronic components in order to create models that satisfy the needs for simulations of circuits in ultra-high frequencies, with application in rectifiers coupled to antennas, as in energy harvesting systems, that is, in rectennas. For this purpose, the numerical method FDTD (Finite-Difference Time-Domain) is applied and SPICE computational tools are used for comparison. In the present work, initially the Ampere-Maxwell equation is applied to the equations of current density and electric field within the FDTD method and its circuital relation with the voltage drop in the modeled component for the case of lumped parameter using the FDTD (Lumped-Element Finite-Difference Time-Domain) proposed in for the passive components and the one proposed in for the diode. Next, a rectifier is built with the essential requirements for operating rectenna energy harvesting systems and the FDTD results are compared with experimental measurements.

Keywords: energy harvesting system, LE-FDTD, rectenna, rectifier, wireless power systems

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Authors: Marcel Verwey, Anna M. Joubert, Elsie M. Nolte, Wolfgang Dohle, Barry V. L. Potter, Anne E. Theron

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A tetrahydroisoquinolinone (THIQ) core can be used to mimic the A,B-ring of colchicine site-binding microtubule disruptors such as 2-methoxyestradiol in the design of anti-cancer agents. Steroidomimeric microtubule disruptors were synthesized by introducing C'2 and C'3 of the steroidal A-ring to C'6 and C'7 of the THIQ core and by introducing a decorated hydrogen bond acceptor motif projecting from the steroidal D-ring to N'2. For this in vitro study, four non-steroidal THIQ-based analogues were investigated and comparative studies were done between the non-sulphamoylated compound STX 3450 and the sulphamoylated compounds STX 2895, STX 3329 and STX 3451. The objective of this study was to investigate the modes of cell death induced by these four THIQ-based analogues in A549 lung carcinoma epithelial cells and metastatic breast adenocarcinoma MDA-MB-231 cells. Cytotoxicity studies to determine the half maximal growth inhibitory concentrations were done using spectrophotometric quantification via crystal violet staining and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) assays. Microtubule integrity and morphologic changes of exposed cells were investigated using polarization-optical transmitted light differential interference contrast microscopy, transmission electron microscopy and confocal microscopy. Flow cytometric quantification was used to determine apoptosis induction and the effect that THIQ-based analogues have on cell cycle progression. Signal transduction pathways were elucidated by quantification of the mitochondrial membrane integrity, cytochrome c release and caspase 3, -6 and -8 activation. Induction of autophagic cell death by the THIQ-based analogues was investigated by morphological assessment of fluorescent monodansylcadaverine (MDC) staining of acidic vacuoles and by quantifying aggresome formation via flow cytometry. Results revealed that these non-steroidal microtubule disrupting analogues inhibited 50% of cell growth at nanomolar concentrations. Immunofluorescence microscopy indicated microtubule depolarization and the resultant mitotic arrest was further confirmed through cell cycle analysis. Apoptosis induction via the intrinsic pathway was observed due to depolarization of the mitochondrial membrane, induction of cytochrome c release as well as, caspase 3 activation. Potential involvement of programmed cell death type II was observed due to the presence of acidic vacuoles and aggresome formation. Necrotic cell death did not contribute significantly, indicated by stable LDH levels. This in vitro study revealed the induction of the intrinsic apoptotic pathway as well as possible involvement of autophagy after exposure to these THIQ-based analogues in both MDA-MB-231- and A549 cells. Further investigation of this series of anticancer drugs still needs to be conducted to elucidate the temporal, mechanistic and functional crosstalk mechanisms between the two observed programmed cell deaths pathways.

Keywords: apoptosis, autophagy, cancer, microtubule disruptor

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Authors: S. Cichosz, A. Masek

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A new cellulose hybrid modification approach, which is undoubtedly a scientific novelty, is introduced. The study reports the properties of cellulose (Arbocel UFC100 – Ultra Fine Cellulose) and characterizes cellulose filled polymer composites based on an ethylene-norbornene copolymer (TOPAS Elastomer E-140). Moreover, the approach of physicochemical two-stage cellulose treatment is introduced: solvent exchange (to ethanol or hexane) and further chemical modification with maleic anhydride (MA). Furthermore, the impact of the drying process on cellulose properties was investigated. Suitable measurements were carried out to characterize cellulose fibers: spectroscopic investigation (Fourier Transform Infrared Spektrofotometer-FTIR, Near InfraRed spectroscopy-NIR), thermal analysis (Differential scanning calorimetry, Thermal gravimetric analysis ) and Karl Fischer titration. It should be emphasized that for all UFC100 treatments carried out, a decrease in moisture content was evidenced. FT-IR reveals a drop in absorption band intensity at 3334 cm-1, the peak is associated with both –OH moieties and water. Similar results were obtained with Karl Fischer titration. Based on the results obtained, it may be claimed that the employment of ethanol contributes greatly to the lowering of cellulose water absorption ability (decrease of moisture content to approximately 1.65%). Additionally, regarding polymer composite properties, crucial data has been obtained from the mechanical and thermal analysis. The highest material performance was noted in the case of the composite sample that contained cellulose modified with MA after a solvent exchange with ethanol. This specimen exhibited sufficient tensile strength, which is almost the same as that of the neat polymer matrix – in the region of 40 MPa. Moreover, both the Payne effect and filler efficiency factor, calculated based on dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), reveal the possibility of the filler having a reinforcing nature. What is also interesting is that, according to the Payne effect results, fibers dried before the further chemical modification are assumed to allow more regular filler structure development in the polymer matrix (Payne effect maximum at 1.60 MPa), compared with those not dried (Payne effect in the range 0.84-1.26 MPa). Furthermore, taking into consideration the data gathered from DSC and TGA, higher thermal stability is obtained in case of the materials filled with fibers that were dried before the carried out treatments (degradation activation energy in the region of 195 kJ/mol) in comparison with the polymer composite samples filled with unmodified cellulose (degradation activation energy of approximately 180 kJ/mol). To author’s best knowledge this work results in the introduction of a novel, new filler hybrid treatment approach. Moreover, valuable data regarding the properties of composites filled with cellulose fibers of various moisture contents have been provided. It should be emphasized that plant fiber-based polymer bio-materials described in this research might contribute significantly to polymer waste minimization because they are more readily degraded.

Keywords: cellulose fibers, solvent exchange, moisture content, ethylene-norbornene copolymer

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Authors: Çağrı Bekir Baysal, Göktuğ Burak Çalık

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Armored vehicles may have different traction layouts as a result of terrain capabilities and mobility needs. Two main categories of layouts can be separated as wheeled and tracked. Tracked vehicles have superior off-road capabilities but what they gain on terrain performance they lose on mobility front. Wheeled vehicles on the other hand do not have as good terrain capabilities as tracked vehicles but they have superior mobility capabilities such as top speed, range and agility with respect to tracked vehicles. Conventional armored vehicles employ a diesel ICE as main power source. In these vehicles ICE is mechanically connected to the powertrain. This determines the ICE rpm as a result of speed and torque requested by the driver. ICE efficiency changes drastically with torque and speed required and conventional vehicles suffer in terms of fuel consumption because of this. Hybrid electric vehicles employ at least one electric motor in order to improve fuel efficiency. There are different types of hybrid vehicles but main types are Series Hybrid, Parallel Hybrid and Series-Parallel Hybrid. These vehicles introduce an electric motor for traction and also can have a generator electric motor for range extending purposes. Having an electric motor as the traction power source brings the flexibility of either using the ICE as an alternative traction source while it is in efficient range or completely separating the ICE from traction and using it solely considering efficiency. Hybrid configurations have additional advantages for armored vehicles in addition to fuel efficiency. Heat signature, silent operation and prolonged stationary missions can be possible with the help of the high-power battery pack that will be present in the vehicle for hybrid drivetrain. Because of the reasons explained, hybrid armored vehicles are becoming a target area for military and also for vehicle suppliers. In order to have a better idea and starting point when starting a hybrid armored vehicle design, hybrid drivetrain configuration has to be selected after performing a trade-off study. This study has to include vehicle mobility simulations, integration level, vehicle level and performance level criteria. In this study different hybrid traction configurations possible for an 8x8 vehicle is compared using above mentioned criteria set. In order to compare hybrid traction configurations ease of application, cost, weight advantage, reliability, maintainability, redundancy and performance criteria have been used. Performance criteria points have been defined with the help of vehicle simulations and tests. Results of these simulations and tests also help determining required tractive power for an armored vehicle including conditions like trench and obstacle crossing, gradient climb. With the method explained in this study, each configuration is assigned a point for each criterion. This way, correct configuration can be selected objectively for every application. Also, key aspects of armored vehicles, mine protection and ballistic protection will be considered for hybrid configurations. Results are expected to vary for different types of vehicles but it is observed that having longitudinal differential locking capability improves mobility and having high motor count increases complexity in general.

Keywords: armored vehicles, electric drivetrain, electric mobility, hybrid vehicles

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Authors: Andres Nieto-Leal, Victor N. Kaliakin, Tania P. Molina

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The nature of most engineering materials is quite complex. It is, therefore, difficult to devise a general mathematical model that will cover all possible ranges and types of excitation and behavior of a given material. As a result, the development of mathematical models is based upon simplifying assumptions regarding material behavior. Such simplifications result in some material idealization; for example, one of the simplest material idealization is to assume that the material behavior obeys the elasticity. However, soils are nonhomogeneous, anisotropic, path-dependent materials that exhibit nonlinear stress-strain relationships, changes in volume under shear, dilatancy, as well as time-, rate- and temperature-dependent behavior. Over the years, many constitutive models, possessing different levels of sophistication, have been developed to simulate the behavior geomaterials, particularly cohesive soils. Early in the development of constitutive models, it became evident that elastic or standard elastoplastic formulations, employing purely isotropic hardening and predicated in the existence of a yield surface surrounding a purely elastic domain, were incapable of realistically simulating the behavior of geomaterials. Accordingly, more sophisticated constitutive models have been developed; for example, the bounding surface elastoplasticity. The essence of the bounding surface concept is the hypothesis that plastic deformations can occur for stress states either within or on the bounding surface. Thus, unlike classical yield surface elastoplasticity, the plastic states are not restricted only to those lying on a surface. Elastoplastic bounding surface models have been improved; however, there is still need to improve their capabilities in simulating the response of anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils, especially the response in extension tests. Thus, in this work an improved constitutive model that can more accurately predict diverse stress-strain phenomena exhibited by cohesive soils was developed. Particularly, an improved rotational hardening rule that better simulate the response of cohesive soils in extension. The generalized definition of the bounding surface model provides a convenient and elegant framework for unifying various previous versions of the model for anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils. The Generalized Bounding Surface Model for cohesive soils is a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent model that accounts for both inherent and stress induced anisotropy employing a non-associative flow rule. The model numerical implementation in a computer code followed an adaptive multistep integration scheme in conjunction with local iteration and radial return. The one-step trapezoidal rule was used to get the stiffness matrix that defines the relationship between the stress increment and the strain increment. After testing the model in simulating the response of cohesive soils through extensive comparisons of model simulations to experimental data, it has been shown to give quite good simulations. The new model successfully simulates the response of different cohesive soils; for example, Cardiff Kaolin, Spestone Kaolin, and Lower Cromer Till. The simulated undrained stress paths, stress-strain response, and excess pore pressures are in very good agreement with the experimental values, especially in extension.

Keywords: bounding surface elastoplasticity, cohesive soils, constitutive model, modeling of geomaterials

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Authors: Jesús Horacio, Alfredo Ollero, Víctor Bouzas-Blanco, Augusto Pérez-Alberti

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Rivers have traditionally been classified, assessed and managed in terms of hydrological, chemical and / or biological criteria. Geomorphological classifications had in the past a secondary role, although proposals like River Styles Framework, Catchment Baseline Survey or Stroud Rural Sustainable Drainage Project did incorporate geomorphology for management decision-making. In recent years many studies have been attracted to the geomorphological component. The geomorphological processes and their associated forms determine the structure of a river system. Understanding these processes and forms is a critical component of the sustainable rehabilitation of aquatic ecosystems. The fluvial auto-classification approach suggests that a river is a self-built natural system, with processes and forms designed to effectively preserve their ecological function (hydrologic, sedimentological and biological regime). Fluvial systems are formed by a wide range of elements with multiple non-linear interactions on different spatial and temporal scales. Besides, the fluvial auto-classification concept is built using data from the river itself, so that each classification developed is peculiar to the river studied. The variables used in the classification are specific stream power and mean grain size. A discriminant analysis showed that these variables are the best characterized processes and forms. The statistical technique applied allows to get an individual discriminant equation for each geomorphological type. The geomorphological classification was developed using sites with high naturalness. Each site is a control point of high ecological and geomorphological quality. The changes in the conditions of the control points will be quickly recognizable, and easy to apply a right management measures to recover the geomorphological type. The study focused on Galicia (NW Spain) and the mapping was made analyzing 122 control points (sites) distributed over eight river basins. In sum, this study provides a method for fluvial geomorphological classification that works as an open and flexible tool underlying the fluvial auto-classification concept. The hydrographic mapping is the visual expression of the results, such that each river has a particular map according to its geomorphological characteristics. Each geomorphological type is represented by a particular type of hydraulic geometry (channel width, width-depth ratio, hydraulic radius, etc.). An alteration of this geometry is indicative of a geomorphological disturbance (whether natural or anthropogenic). Hydrographic mapping is also dynamic because its meaning changes if there is a modification in the specific stream power and/or the mean grain size, that is, in the value of their equations. The researcher has to check annually some of the control points. This procedure allows to monitor the geomorphology quality of the rivers and to see if there are any alterations. The maps are useful to researchers and managers, especially for conservation work and river restoration.

Keywords: fluvial auto-classification concept, mapping, geomorphology, river

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Youcef Sehili, Khaled Loubar, Lyes Tarabet, Mahfoudh Cerdoun, Clement Lacroix

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As emissions regulations grow more stringent and traditional fuel sources become increasingly scarce, incorporating carbon-free fuels in the transportation sector emerges as a key strategy for mitigating the impact of greenhouse gas emissions. While the utilization of hydrogen (H2) presents significant technological challenges, as evident in the engine limitation known as knocking, ammonia (NH3) provides a viable alternative that overcomes this obstacle and offers convenient transportation, storage, and distribution. Moreover, the implementation of a dual-fuel engine using ammonia as the primary gas is promising, delivering both ecological and economic benefits. However, when employing this combustion mode, the substitution of ammonia at high rates adversely affects combustion performance and leads to elevated emissions of unburnt NH3, especially under high loads, which requires special treatment of this mode of combustion. This study aims to simulate combustion in a common rail direct injection (CRDI) dual-fuel engine, considering the fundamental geometry of the combustion chamber as well as fifteen (15) alternative proposed geometries to determine the configuration that exhibits superior engine performance during high-load conditions. The research presented here focuses on improving the understanding of the equations and mechanisms involved in the combustion of finely atomized jets of liquid fuel and on mastering the CONVERGETM code, which facilitates the simulation of this combustion process. By analyzing the effect of piston bowl shape on the performance and emissions of a diesel engine operating in dual fuel mode, this work combines knowledge of combustion phenomena with proficiency in the calculation code. To select the optimal geometry, an evaluation of the Swirl, Tumble, and Squish flow patterns was conducted for the fifteen (15) studied geometries. Variations in-cylinder pressure, heat release rate, turbulence kinetic energy, turbulence dissipation rate, and emission rates were observed, while thermal efficiency and specific fuel consumption were estimated as functions of crankshaft angle. To maximize thermal efficiency, a synergistic approach involving the enrichment of intake air with oxygen (O2) and the enrichment of primary fuel with hydrogen (H2) was implemented. Based on the results obtained, it is worth noting that the proposed geometry (T8_b8_d0.6/SW_8.0) outperformed the others in terms of flow quality, reduction of pollutants emitted with a reduction of more than 90% in unburnt NH3, and an impressive improvement in engine efficiency of more than 11%.

Keywords: ammonia, hydrogen, combustion, dual-fuel engine, emissions

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Authors: Zatovska T. V., Nesterova N. V., Baranova G. V., Zagorodnya S. D.

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In recent years, biosensor technologies based on the phenomenon of surface plasmon resonance (SPR) are becoming increasingly used in biology and medicine. Their application facilitates exploration in real time progress of binding of biomolecules and identification of agents that specifically interact with biologically active substances immobilized on the biosensor surface (biochips). Special attention is paid to the use of Biosensor analysis in determining the antibody-antigen interaction in the diagnostics of diseases caused by viruses and bacteria. According to WHO, the diseases that are caused by the herpes simplex virus (HSV), take second place (15.8%) after influenza as a cause of death from viral infections. Current diagnostics of HSV infection include PCR and ELISA assays. The latter allows determination the degree of immune response to viral infection and respective stages of its progress. In this regard, the searches for new and available diagnostic methods are very important. This work was aimed to develop Biosensor chip for detection of specific antibodies to HSV-1 in the human blood serum. The proteins of HSV1 (strain US) were used as antigens. The viral particles were accumulated in cell culture MDBK and purified by differential centrifugation in cesium chloride density gradient. Analysis of the HSV1 proteins was performed by polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and ELISA. The protein concentration was measured using De Novix DS-11 spectrophotometer. The device for detection of antigen-antibody interactions was an optoelectronic two-channel spectrometer ‘Plasmon-6’, using the SPR phenomenon in the Krechman optical configuration. It was developed at the Lashkarev Institute of Semiconductor Physics of NASU. The used carrier was a glass plate covered with 45 nm gold film. Screening of human blood serums was performed using the test system ‘HSV-1 IgG ELISA’ (GenWay, USA). Development of Biosensor chip included optimization of conditions of viral antigen sorption and analysis steps. For immobilization of viral proteins 0.2% solution of Dextran 17, 200 (Sigma, USA) was used. Sorption of antigen took place at 4-8°C within 18-24 hours. After washing of chip, three times with citrate buffer (pH 5,0) 1% solution of BSA was applied to block the sites not occupied by viral antigen. It was found direct dependence between the amount of immobilized HSV1 antigen and SPR response. Using obtained biochips, panels of 25 positive and 10 negative for the content of antibodies to HSV-1 human sera were analyzed. The average value of SPR response was 185 a.s. for negative sera and from 312 to. 1264 a.s. for positive sera. It was shown that SPR data were agreed with ELISA results in 96% of samples proving the great potential of SPR in such researches. It was investigated the possibility of biochip regeneration and it was shown that application of 10 mM NaOH solution leads to rupture of intermolecular bonds. This allows reuse the chip several times. Thus, in this study biosensor chip for detection of specific antibodies to HSV1 was successfully developed expanding a range of diagnostic methods for this pathogen.

Keywords: biochip, herpes virus, SPR

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Authors: Mengjiao Fan, Thomson W. L. Wong

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It is unavoidable that older adults may have to deal with aging-related motor problems. Aging is highly likely to affect motor learning and control as well. For example, older adults may suffer from poor motor function and quality of life due to age-related eye changes. These adverse changes in vision results in impairment of movement automaticity. Reaching is a fundamental component of various complex movements, which is therefore beneficial to explore the changes and adaptation in visuomotor behaviors. The current study aims to explore how aging affects visuomotor behaviors by comparing motor performance and gaze behaviors between two age groups (i.e., young and older adults). Visuomotor behaviors in reaching under providing or blocking online visual feedback (simulated visual deficiency) conditions were investigated in 60 healthy young adults (Mean age=24.49 years, SD=2.12) and 37 older adults (Mean age=70.07 years, SD=2.37) with normal or corrected-to-normal vision. Participants in each group were randomly allocated into two subgroups. Subgroup 1 was provided with online visual feedback of the hand-controlled mouse cursor. However, in subgroup 2, visual feedback was blocked to simulate visual deficiency. The experimental task required participants to complete 20 times of reaching to a target by controlling the mouse cursor on the computer screen. Among all the 20 trials, start position was upright in the center of the screen and target appeared at a randomly selected position by the tailor-made computer program. Primary outcomes of motor performance and gaze behaviours data were recorded by the EyeLink II (SR Research, Canada). The results suggested that aging seems to affect the performance of reaching tasks significantly in both visual feedback conditions. In both age groups, blocking online visual feedback of the cursor in reaching resulted in longer hand movement time (p < .001), longer reaching distance away from the target center (p<.001) and poorer reaching motor accuracy (p < .001). Concerning gaze behaviors, blocking online visual feedback increased the first fixation duration time in young adults (p<.001) but decreased it in older adults (p < .001). Besides, under the condition of providing online visual feedback of the cursor, older adults conducted a longer fixation dwell time on target throughout reaching than the young adults (p < .001) although the effect was not significant under blocking online visual feedback condition (p=.215). Therefore, the results suggested that different levels of visual feedback during movement execution can affect gaze behaviors differently in older and young adults. Differential effects by aging on visuomotor behaviors appear on two visual feedback patterns (i.e., blocking or providing online visual feedback of hand-controlled cursor in reaching). Several specific gaze behaviors among the older adults were found, which imply that blocking of visual feedback may act as a stimulus to seduce extra perceptive load in movement execution and age-related visual degeneration might further deteriorate the situation. It indeed provides us with insight for the future development of potential rehabilitative training method (e.g., well-designed errorless training) in enhancing visuomotor adaptation for our aging population in the context of improving their movement automaticity by facilitating their compensation of visual degeneration.

Keywords: aging effect, movement automaticity, reaching, visuomotor behaviors, visual degeneration

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Authors: Willian C. De Brito, Hernan D. C. Munoz, Erlan V. C. Carvalho, Helder L. C. De Oliveira

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In order to improve commute time for small distance trips and relieve large cities traffic, a new transport category has been the subject of research and new designs worldwide. The air taxi travel market promises to change the way people live and commute by using the concept of vehicles with the ability to take-off and land vertically and to provide passenger’s transport equivalent to a car, with mobility within large cities and between cities. Today’s civil air transport remains costly and accounts for 2% of the man-made CO₂ emissions. Taking advantage of this scenario, many companies have developed their own Vertical Take Off and Landing (VTOL) design, seeking to meet comfort, safety, low cost and flight time requirements in a sustainable way. Thus, the use of green power supplies, especially batteries, and fully electric power plants is the most common choice for these arising aircrafts. However, it is still a challenge finding a feasible way to handle with the use of batteries rather than conventional petroleum-based fuels. The batteries are heavy and have an energy density still below from those of gasoline, diesel or kerosene. Therefore, despite all the clear advantages, all electric aircrafts (AEA) still have low flight autonomy and high operational cost, since the batteries must be recharged or replaced. In this sense, this paper addresses a way to optimize the energy consumption in a typical mission of an aerial taxi aircraft. The approach and landing procedure was chosen to be the subject of an optimization genetic algorithm, while final programming can be adapted for take-off and flight level changes as well. A real tilt rotor aircraft with fully electric power plant data was used to fit the derived dynamic equations of motion. Although a tilt rotor design is used as a proof of concept, it is possible to change the optimization to be applied for other design concepts, even those with independent motors for hover and cruise flight phases. For a given trajectory, the best set of control variables are calculated to provide the time history response for aircraft´s attitude, rotors RPM and thrust direction (or vertical and horizontal thrust, for independent motors designs) that, if followed, results in the minimum electric power consumption through that landing path. Safety, comfort and design constraints are assumed to give representativeness to the solution. Results are highly dependent on these constraints. For the tested cases, performance improvement ranged from 5 to 10% changing initial airspeed, altitude, flight path angle, and attitude.

Keywords: air taxi travel, all electric aircraft, batteries, energy consumption, genetic algorithm, landing performance, optimization, performance improvement, tilt rotor, VTOL design

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Authors: Sezer Kefeli, Sertaç Arslan

Abstract:

Supercavitation is a pressure dependent process which gives opportunity to eliminate the wetted surface effects on the underwater vehicle due to the differences of viscosity and velocity effects between liquid (freestream) and gas phase. Cavitation process occurs depending on rapid pressure drop or temperature rising in liquid phase. In this paper, pressure based cavitation is investigated due to the fact that is encountered in the underwater world, generally. Basically, this vapor-filled pressure based cavities are unstable and harmful for any underwater vehicle because these cavities (bubbles or voids) lead to intense shock waves while collapsing. On the other hand, supercavitation is a desired and stabilized phenomena than general pressure based cavitation. Supercavitation phenomena offers the idea of minimizing form drag, and thus supercavitating vehicles are revived. When proper circumstances are set up, which are either increasing the operating speed of the underwater vehicle or decreasing the pressure difference between free stream and artificial pressure, the continuity of the supercavitation is obtainable. There are 2 types of supercavitation to obtain stable and continuous supercavitation, and these are called as natural and artificial supercavitation. In order to generate natural supercavitation, various mechanical structures are discovered, which are called as cavitators. In literature, a lot of cavitator types are studied either experimentally or numerically on a CFD platforms with intent to observe natural supercavitation since the 1900s. In this paper, firstly, experimental results are obtained, and trend lines are generated based on supercavitation parameters in terms of cavitation number (), form drag coefficientC_D, dimensionless cavity diameter (d_m/d_c), and length (L_c/d_c). After that, natural cavitation verification studies are carried out for disk and cone shape cavitators. In addition, supercavitation parameters are numerically analyzed at different operating conditions, and CFD results are fitted into trend lines of experimental results. The aims of this paper are to generate one generally accepted drag coefficient equation for disk and cone cavitators at different cavitator half angle and investigation of the supercavitation parameters with respect to cavitation number. Moreover, 165 CFD analysis are performed at different cavitation numbers on FLUENT version 21R2. Five different cavitator types are modeled on SCDM with respect tocavitator’s half angles. After that, CFD database is generated depending on numerical results, and new trend lines are generated based on supercavitation parameters. These trend lines are compared with experimental results. Finally, the generally accepted drag coefficient equation and equations of supercavitation parameters are generated.

Keywords: cavity envelope, CFD, high speed underwater vehicles, supercavitation, supercavitating flows, supercavitation parameters, drag reduction, viscous force elimination, natural cavitation verification

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Authors: Sabina Huč, Staffan Svensson, Tomaž Hozjan

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Timber structures may be exposed to various environmental conditions during their service life. Often, the structures have to resist extreme changes in the relative humidity of surrounding air, with simultaneously carrying the loads. Wood material response for this load case is seen as increasing deformation of the timber structure. Relative humidity variations cause moisture changes in timber and consequently shrinkage and swelling of the material. Moisture changes and loads acting together result in mechano-sorptive creep, while sustained load gives viscoelastic creep. In some cases, magnitude of the mechano-sorptive strain can be about five times the elastic strain already at low stress levels. Therefore, analyzing mechano-sorptive creep and its influence on timber structures’ long-term behavior is of high importance. Relatively many one-dimensional rheological models for rheological behavior of wood can be found in literature, while a number of models coupling creep response in each material direction is limited. In this study, mathematical formulation of a coupled two-dimensional mechano-sorptive model and its application to the experimental results are presented. The mechano-sorptive model constitutes of a moisture transport model and a mechanical model. Variation of the moisture content in wood is modelled by multi-Fickian moisture transport model. The model accounts for processes of the bound-water and water-vapor diffusion in wood, that are coupled through sorption hysteresis. Sorption defines a nonlinear relation between moisture content and relative humidity. Multi-Fickian moisture transport model is able to accurately predict unique, non-uniform moisture content field within the timber member over time. Calculated moisture content in timber members is used as an input to the mechanical analysis. In the mechanical analysis, the total strain is assumed to be a sum of the elastic strain, viscoelastic strain, mechano-sorptive strain, and strain due to shrinkage and swelling. Mechano-sorptive response is modelled by so-called spring-dashpot type of a model, that proved to be suitable for describing creep of wood. Mechano-sorptive strain is dependent on change of moisture content. The model includes mechano-sorptive material parameters that have to be calibrated to the experimental results. The calibration is made to the experiments carried out on wooden blocks subjected to uniaxial compressive loaded in tangential direction and varying humidity conditions. The moisture and the mechanical model are implemented in a finite element software. The calibration procedure gives the required, distinctive set of mechano-sorptive material parameters. The analysis shows that mechano-sorptive strain in transverse direction is present, though its magnitude and variation are substantially lower than the mechano-sorptive strain in the direction of loading. The presented mechano-sorptive model enables observing real temporal and spatial distribution of the moisture-induced strains and stresses in timber members. Since the model’s suitability for predicting mechano-sorptive strains is shown and the required material parameters are obtained, a comprehensive advanced analysis of the stress-strain state in timber structures, including connections subjected to constant load and varying humidity is possible.

Keywords: mechanical analysis, mechano-sorptive creep, moisture transport model, timber

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Authors: J. Martin Leal-Graciano, Juan J. Pérez-Gavilán, A. Reyes-Salazar, J. H. Castorena, J. L. Rivera-Salas

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The experimental results about the global behavior of twelve 1:2 scaled reinforced concrete frame subject to in-plane lateral load are presented. The main objective was to generate experimental evidence about the use of steel bars within mortar bed-joints as shear reinforcement in infill walls. Similar to the Canadian and New Zealand standards, the Mexican code includes specifications for this type of reinforcement. However, these specifications were obtained through experimental studies of load-bearing walls, mainly confined walls. Little information is found in the existing literature about the effects of joint reinforcement on the seismic behavior of infill masonry walls. Consequently, the Mexican code establishes the same equations to estimate the contribution of joint reinforcement for both confined walls and infill walls. A confined masonry construction and a reinforced concrete frame infilled with masonry walls have similar appearances. However, substantial differences exist between these two construction systems, which are mainly related to the sequence of construction and to how these structures support vertical and lateral loads. To achieve the objective established, ten reinforced concrete frames with masonry infill walls were built and tested in pairs, having both specimens in the pair identical characteristics except that one of them included joint reinforcement. The variables between pairs were the type of units, the size of the columns of the frame and the aspect ratio of the wall. All cases included tie-columns and tie-beams on the perimeter of the wall to anchor the joint reinforcement. Also, two bare frame with identical characteristic to the infilled frames were tested. The purpose was to investigate the effects of the infill wall on the behavior of the system to in-plane lateral load. In addition, the experimental results were compared with the prediction of the Mexican code. All the specimens were tested in cantilever under reversible cyclic lateral load. To simulate gravity load, constant vertical load was applied on the top of the columns. The results indicate that the contribution of the joint reinforcement to lateral strength depends on the size of the columns of the frame. Larger size columns produce a failure mode that is predominantly a sliding mode. Sliding inhibits the production of new inclined cracks, which are necessary to activate (deform) the joint reinforcement. Regarding the effects of joint reinforcement in the performance of confined masonry walls, many facts were confirmed for infill walls: this type of reinforcement increases the lateral strength of the wall, produces a more distributed cracking and reduces the width of the cracks. Moreover, it reduces the ductility demand of the system at maximum strength. The prediction of the lateral strength provided by the Mexican code is property in some cases; however, the effect of the size of the columns on the contribution of joint reinforcement needs to be better understood.

Keywords: experimental study, Infill wall, Infilled frame, masonry wall

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Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

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Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

Procedia PDF Downloads 231