Search results for: monetary policy shocks

Authors: Bahram Fathi, Karim Alizadeh, Azam Mohammadbagheri

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of oil price shocks in explaining business cycles in Iran using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. The model with two shocks produces different values for volatility, but these values have the same ranking as that of the actual data for most variables. In addition, the actual data are close to the ratio of standard deviations to the output obtained from the model with two shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than the oil shocks. The model with only a productivity shock produces the most similar figures in term of volatility magnitude to that of the actual data. Next, we use the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) to evaluate the capability of the model. The IRF shows no effect of an oil shock on the capital stocks and on labor hours, which is a feature of the model. When the log-linearized system of equations is solved numerically, investment and labor hours were not found to be functions of the oil shock. This research recommends using different techniques to compare the model’s robustness. One method by which to do this is to have all decision variables as a function of the oil shock by inducing the stationary to the model differently. Another method is to impose a bond adjustment cost. This study intends to fill that gap. To achieve this objective, we derive a DSGE model that allows for the world oil price and productivity shocks. Second, we calibrate the model to the Iran economy. Next, we compare the moments from the theoretical model with both single and multiple shocks with that obtained from the actual data to see the extent to which business cycles in Iran can be explained by total oil revenue shock. Then, we use an impulse response function to evaluate the role of world oil price shocks. Finally, I present implications of the findings and interpretations in accordance with economic theory.

Keywords: oil price, shocks, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Iran

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Authors: Anne Gesare Timu, Megan Sheahan, Andrew Gache Mude, Rupsha Banerjee

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Women headed households are among the most vulnerable to negative climatic shocks and are often left poorer as a result. Credit provision has been recognized as one way of alleviating rural poverty and developing poor rural households’ resilience to shocks. Much has been documented about credit demand in small-holder agriculture settings in Kenya. However, little is known about demand for credit among pastoral women. This paper analyzes the determinants of demand for credit in the pastoral regions of Marsabit District of Northern Kenya. Using a five wave balanced panel data set of 820 households, a double hurdle model is employed to analyze if shocks, financial literacy and risk aversion affect credit demand among female and male headed households differently. The results show that borrowing goods on credit and monetary credit from informal market segments are the most common sources of credit in the study area. The impact of livestock loss and financial literacy on the decision to borrow and how much to borrow vary with gender. While the paper suggests that provision of credit is particularly valuable in the aftermath of a negative shock and more so for female-headed households, it also explores alternatives to the provision of credit where credit access is a constraint. It recommends further understanding of systems and institutions which could enhance access to credit, and particularly during times of stress, to enable households in the study area in particular and Northern Kenya in general to invest, engage in meaningful development and growth, and be resilient to persistent shocks.

Keywords: female headed households, pastoralism, rural financing, double hurdle model

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Authors: Veronika Solilová, Danuše Nerudová

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The paper examines the interaction between the environmental taxation, size of government spending on environmental protection and greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption. The aim is to analyze the effects of environmental taxation and government spending on environmental protection as an environmental policy instruments on greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption in the EU15. The empirical study is performed using a VAR approach with the application of aggregated data of EU15 over the period 1995 to 2012. The results provide the evidence that the reactions of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption to the shocks of environmental policy instruments are strong, mainly in the short term and decay to zero after about 8 years. Further, the reactions of the environmental policy instruments to the shocks of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption are also strong in the short term, however with the deferred effects. In addition, the results show that government spending on environmental protection together with gross inland energy consumption has stronger effect on greenhouse gas emissions than environmental taxes in EU15 over the examined period.

Keywords: VAR analysis, greenhouse gas emissions, environmental taxation, government spending

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Authors: Aemro Tazeze Terefe, Mengistu K. Aredo, Abule M. Workagegnehu, Wondimagegn M. Tesfaye

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Climate-induced shocks have been shown to reduce agricultural production and cause fluctuation in output in developing countries. When livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture, climate-induced shocks translate into consumption shocks. Despite the substantial improvements in household consumption, climate-induced shocks, and other factors adversely affect consumption dynamics at the household level in Ethiopia. Therefore, household consumption dynamics in the context of climate-induced shocks help to guide resilience capacity and establish appropriate interventions and programs. The research employed three-round panel data based on the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with spatial rainfall data to define unique measures of rainfall variability. The linear dynamic panel model results show that the lagged value of consumption, market shocks, and rainfall variability positively affected consumption dynamics. In contrast, production shocks, temperature, and amount of rainfall had a negative relationship. Coping strategies mitigate adverse climate-induced shocks on consumption aftershocks that smooth consumption over time. Support to increase the resilience capacity of households can involve efforts to make existing livelihoods and forms of production or reductions in the vulnerability of households. Therefore, government interventions are mandatory for asset accumulation agendas that support household coping strategies and respond to shocks. In addition, the dynamic linkage between consumption and significant socioeconomic and institutional factors should be taken into account to minimize the effect of climate-induced shocks on consumption dynamics.

Keywords: climate shock, Ethiopia, fixed-effect model, food security

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Authors: Mohammad Mehdi Mazaheri, Mohammad Motiee Lahromi

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Recently the two matters of how to evaluate art and what the influencing economic effects on cultural values are have attracted many researchers to investigate them. Therefore, in the present article the researcher made an attempt to answer the above questions. However, the fundamental distinction between this article and the other ones is in comparing the economic value (shown by monetary phrases) with cultural values (that reflects the aesthetic values and the importance of the artist). This article shows a different and trivial distinction that has a very clearly pivotal significance in the process of cultural policy making. The economic activities would be influenced when there are cultural values. The increase of commercial activities is measured by impact assessment. In other words, the value of culture is reflected in the satisfaction of the users of cultural activities. This kind of value is measured by “willingness to pay” researches. The researcher believes that these two values are dominant in the cultural policy but they include many aspects and are presented by different kinds of communities.

Keywords: economic influence, cultural values, monetary phrases, aesthetic values

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Authors: Doki Naomi Onyeje, Doki Gowon Ama

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The past 4 years have been traumatic for Nigerians, having to deal with a number of complex economic issues with dire consequences for the economy. Households have had to respond variously to some of these problems in peculiar ways, depending, of course, on the nature and character of a particular shock. The type, magnitude, intensity and duration of a particular shock might be the determinant of different household responses. While households’ responses to the Global Financial Crisis and Covid 19 Pandemic have been documented by researchers, other economic shocks have continued to emerge in Nigeria. The dramatic turn of events since coming on board of the new government on May 29th 2023, has introduced a new economic twist that households will have to adjust to. This study, therefore, sets out to examine household responses by disaggregating them by their livelihood sources. A survey of 420 households across North Central Nigeria will be done to generate information on the respective responses. A Multinomial logit regression analysis will be employed to test the hypothesis that livelihood source(s) influences household responses to economic shocks. Consequently, responses from public and private households will be examined. The expected results should be that household responses might have some similarities, but it is expected that some peculiar responses across groups will emerge and these differences will guide for group-specific interventions. The Theatre for Development (TfD) approach will be used to disseminate and propagate results from this study to and among stakeholders for effective policy frameworks.

Keywords: drama, dynamics, economic shocks, household responses, Nigeria

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Authors: Fajana Sola Isaac

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In the last two decades, we have witnessed an increased interest in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in developing economies and emerging markets. This is perhaps due to the acknowledged significance of the pattern of exchange rate pass-through as a key instrument in monetary policy design, principally in retort to a shock in exchange rate in literature. This paper analyzed Exchange Rate Pass-Through by A Model of Oil Prices and Asymmetric Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Selected African Countries. The study adopted A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach using yearly data on Algeria, Burundi, Nigeria and South Africa from 1986 to 2022. The paper found asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through in net oil-importing and net oil-exporting countries in the short run during the period under review. An ERPT exhibited a complete pass-through in the short run in the case of net oil-importing countries but an incomplete pass-through in the case of the net oil-exporting countries that were examined. An extended result revealed a significant impact of oil price shock on exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the long run only for net oil importing countries. The Wald restriction test also confirms the evidence of asymmetric with the role of oil price acting as an accelerator to exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the countries examined. The study found the outcome to be very useful for gaining expansive knowledge on the external shock impact on ERPT and could be of critical value for national monetary policy decisions on inflation targeting, especially for countries examined and other developing net oil importers and exporters.

Keywords: pass through, exchange rate, ARDL, monetary policy

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Authors: Walaa Diab, Baher Atlam, Nadia El Nimer

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Egypt faces many obvious economic challenges, and it is so clear that a real economic transformation is needed to address those problems, especially after the recent decisions of floating the Egyptian pound and the gradual subsidy cuts that are trying to meet the needed conditions to get the IMF support of (a £12bn loan) for its economic reform program. Following the post-2008 revival of the interest in the fiscal policy and its vital role in speeding up or slowing down the economic growth. Here comes the value of this paper as it seeks to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Egypt by applying A Bayesian SVAR Approach. The study uses the Bayesian method because it includes the prior information and no relevant information is omitted and so it is well suited for rational, evidence-based decision-making. Since the study aims to define the effects of fiscal policy shocks in Egypt to help the decision-makers in determining the proper means to correct the structural problems in the Egyptian economy, it has to study the period of 1990s economic reform, but unfortunately; the available data is on an annual frequency. Thus, it uses annual time series to study the period 1991: 2005 And quarterly data over the period 2006–2016. It uses a set of six main variables includes government expenditure and net tax revenues as fiscal policy arms affecting real GDP, unemployment, inflation and the interest rate. The study also tries to assess the 'crowding out' effects by considering the effects of government spending and government revenue shocks on the composition of GDP, namely, on private consumption and private investment. Last but not least the study provides its policy implications regarding the needed role of fiscal policy in Egypt in the upcoming economic reform building on the results it concludes from the previous reform program.

Keywords: fiscal policy, government spending, structural vector autoregression, taxation

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Authors: Wael Bakhit, Salma Bakhit

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This paper employs a quarterly time series to determine the timing of structural breaks for interest rates in USA over the last 60 years. The Chow test is used for investigating the non-stationary, where the date of the potential break is assumed to be known. Moreover, an empirical examination of the financial sector was made to check if it is positively related to deviations from an assumed interest rate as given in a standard Taylor rule. The empirical analysis is strengthened by analysing the rule from a historical perspective and a look at the effect of setting the interest rate by the central bank on financial imbalances. The empirical evidence indicates that deviation in monetary policy has a potential causal factor in the build-up of financial imbalances and the subsequent crisis where macro prudential intervention could have beneficial effect. Thus, our findings tend to support the view which states that the probable existence of central banks has been a source of global financial crisis since the past decade.

Keywords: Taylor rule, financial imbalances, central banks, econometrics

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Authors: Reza Moosavi Mohseni, Wenjun Zhang, Jiling Cao

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The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward, and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.

Keywords: taylor rule, monetary system, chaos theory, lyapunov exponent, GMM estimator

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Authors: Oloyede John Adebayo

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This paper tested a variant of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, called Frankel’s Capital Account Monetary Model (CAAM) based on Real Interest Rate Differential, on the floating exchange rate experiences of three developing countries of Africa; viz: Ghana, Nigeria and the Gambia. The study adopted the Auto regressive Instrumental Package (AIV) and Almon Polynomial Lag Procedure of regression analysis based on the assumption that the coefficients follow a third-order Polynomial with zero-end constraint. The results found some support for the CAAM hypothesis that exchange rate responds proportionately to changes in money supply, inversely to income and positively to interest rates and expected inflation differentials. On this basis, the study points the attention of monetary authorities and researchers to the relevance and usefulness of CAAM as appropriate tool and useful benchmark for analyzing the exchange rate behaviour of most developing countries.

Keywords: exchange rate, monetary model, interest differentials, capital account

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Authors: R. Henry, H. Andriamboavonjy, J. B. Paulin, S. Drahy, R. Gourichon

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During past decade, Chinese monetary policy has been to maintain stability of exchange rate CNY/USD by creating parity between the two currencies. This policy, against market equilibrium, impacts the exchange rate in having low Yuan currency, and keeping attractiveness of Chinese industries. Using macroeconomic and statistic approach, the impact of such policy onto CNY/USD exchange rate is quantitatively determined. It is also pointed out how Chinese banks respect Basel III ratios, in particular the foreign exchange ratio. The main analysis is focusing on how Chinese banks will respect these ratios in the future.

Keywords: macroeconomics models, yuan floating exchange rate, basel iii, china banking system

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Authors: Revaz Gvelesiani

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The problem of compliance between the state economic policy and entrepreneurial policy of businesses is primarily manifested in the contradictions related to the congruence between entrepreneurship development and self-development strategies. Among various types (financial, monetary, social, etc.) of the state economic policy aiming at the development of entrepreneurship, economic order policy is of special importance. Its goal is to set the framework for both public and private economic activities and achieve coherence between the societal value system and the formation of the economic order framework. Economic order policy, in its turn, involves intrinsic contradiction between the social and the competitive order. Competitive order is oriented on the principle of success, while social order _ on the criteria of need satisfaction, which contradicts, at least partly, to the principles of success. Thus within the economic order policy, on the one hand, the state makes efforts to form social order and expand its frontiers, while, on the other hand, market is determined to establish functioning competitive order and ensure its realization. Locating the adequate spaces for and setting the rational border between the state (social order) and the private (competitive order) activities, represents the phenomenon of the decisive importance from the entrepreneurship development strategy standpoint. In the countries where the above mentioned spaces and borders are “set” correctly, entrepreneurship agents (small, medium-sized and large businesses) achieve great success by means of seizing the respective segments and maintaining the leading positions in the internal, the European and the world markets for a long time. As for the entrepreneurship self-development strategy, above all, it involves: •market identification; •interactions with consumers; •continuous innovations; •competition strategy; •relationships with partners; •new management philosophy, etc. The analysis of compliance between the entrepreneurship strategy and entrepreneurship culture should be the reference point for any kind of internationalization in order to avoid shocks of cultural nature and the economic backwardness. Stabilization can be achieved only when the employee actions reflect the existing culture and the new contents of culture (targeted culture) is turned into the implicit consciousness of the personnel. The future leaders should learn how to manage different cultures. Entrepreneurship can be managed successfully if its strategy and culture are coherent. However, not rarely enterprises (organizations) show various forms of violation of both personal and team actions. If personal and team non-observances appear as the form of influence upon the culture, it will lead to global destruction of the system and structure. This is the entrepreneurship culture pathology that complicates to achieve compliance between the entrepreneurship strategy and entrepreneurship culture. Thus, the intrinsic contradictions of entrepreneurship development and self-development strategies complicate the task of reaching compliance between the state economic policy and the company entrepreneurship policy: on the one hand, there is a contradiction between the social and the competitive order within economic order policy and on the other hand, the contradiction exists between entrepreneurship strategy and entrepreneurship culture within entrepreneurship policy.

Keywords: economic order policy, entrepreneurship, development contradictions, self-development contradictions

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Authors: Parma Chakravartti

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The impact of government spending and taxation on economic growth has remained a central issue of fiscal policy analysis. There is a wide range of opinions over the strength of fiscal policy’s effect on macroeconomic variables. It can be argued that the impact of fiscal policy depends on the structure and economic condition of the economy. This study makes an attempt to examine the effect of fiscal policy shocks on growth in India using the structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), considering data from 1950 to 2019. The study finds that government spending is an important instrument of growth in India, where the share of revenue expenditure to capital expenditure plays a key role. The optimum composition of total expenditure is important for growth and it is not necessarily true that capital expenditure multiplier is more than revenue expenditure multiplier. The study also finds that the impact of public economic activities on private economic activities for both consumption expenditure and gross capital formation of government crowds in private consumption expenditure and private gross capital formation, respectively, thus indicating that government expenditure complements private expenditure in India.

Keywords: government spending, fiscal policy, multiplier, growth

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Authors: Sobar M. Johari, Ida Putri Anjarsari

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In the transmission of monetary instrument towards real sector of the economy, Bank Indonesia as monetary authority has developed Islamic Bank Indonesia Certificate (abbreviated as SBIS) as an instrument in Islamic open market operation. One of the monetary transmission channels could take place through financing channel from which the fund is used as the source of banking financing. This study aims to analyse the impact of Islamic monetary instrument towards output or economic growth. Data used in this research is taken from Bank Indonesia and Central Board of Statistics for the period of January 2008 until December 2015. The study employs Granger Causality Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Function (IRF) technique and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) as its analytical methods. The results show that, first, the transmission mechanism of banking financing channel are not linked to output. Second, estimation results of VECM show that SBIS, PUAS, and FIN have significant impact in the long term towards output. When there is monetary shock, output or economic growth could be recovered and stabilized in the short term. FEVD results show that Islamic banking financing contributes 1.33 percent to increase economic growth.

Keywords: Islamic monetary instrument, Islamic banking financing channel, economic growth, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

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Authors: H. Z. Ulukan, E. Demircioğlu, M. Erol Genevois

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The scope of this paper and the aim of proposed model were to apply monetary Input –Output (I-O) analysis to point out the importance of reusing know-how and other requirements in order to reduce the production costs in a manufacturing process for a laptop computer. I-O approach using the monetary input-output model is employed to demonstrate the impacts of different factors in a manufacturing process. A sensitivity analysis showing the correlation between these different factors is also presented. It is expected that the recommended model would have an advantageous effect in the cost minimization process.

Keywords: input-output analysis, monetary input-output model, manufacturing process, laptop computer

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Authors: Wei Yao, Constantinos Alexiou

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In the existing literature, many studies have focused on the implementation and effectiveness of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, but only a few have evaluated QE’s effect on commodity prices. In this context, by following Frankel’s (1986) commodity price overshooting model, we study the dynamic covariation between the expected real interest rates and six agricultural commodities’ real returns over the period from 2000:1 to 2018 for the US economy. We use wavelet analysis to investigate the causal relationship and co-movement of time series data by calculating the coefficient of determination in different frequencies. We find that a) US unconventional monetary policy may cause more positive and significant covariation between the expected real interest rates and agricultural commodities’ real returns over the short horizons; b) a lead-lag relationship that runs from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real short-term interest rates over the long horizons; and c) a lead-lag relationship from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real long-term interest rates over short horizons. In the realm of monetary policy, we argue that QE may shift the negative relationship between most commodities’ real returns and the expected real interest rates to a positive one over a short horizon.

Keywords: QE, commodity price, interest rate, wavelet coherence

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Authors: Nino Grigolaia

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Introduction - The paper discusses the role of industrial policy in the development of the economy in the country. The main challenges on the way to the implementation of industrial policy are analyzed: the long-term period of industrial policy, the risk of changes in priorities, the limited scope and external shocks. Methodology - Various research methods are used in the paper. The methods of induction, deduction, analysis, synthesis, analogy, correlation and statistical observation are used. Main Findings - Based on the analysis of the current situation in Georgia, the obstacles to the country's industrialization and its supporting factors are identified. Also, the challenges of the country's core industrial policies are revealed. Specific industry development strategies, ways of state support and main directions of new industrial policies are identified. Conclusion - The paper concludes that the development of the industrial sector is critical for the future growth and development of the Georgian economy, which will accelerate the industrialization and structural transformation processes, reduce the trade deficit, increase the exports and create more jobs in the country. The listed changes will guarantee the improvement of the socio-economic situation of the population. Accordingly, it is revealed that the study of industrial policy in Georgia is still actual. Based on the analysis, relevant conclusions in the field of industrialization of the country are developed and recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: industrialization , industrial policy, industrialization of the economy, Georgia priorities

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Authors: Federica Di Marcantonio, Antoine Leblois, Wolfgang Göbel, Hervè Kerdiles

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Weather-related shocks can threaten the ability of farmers to maintain their agricultural output and food security levels. Informal coping mechanisms (i.e. migration or community risk sharing) have always played a significant role in mitigating the negative effects of weather-related shocks in Ethiopia, but they have been found to be an incomplete strategy, particularly as a response to covariate shocks. Particularly, as an alternative to the traditional risk pooling products, an innovative form of insurance known as Index-based Insurance has received a lot of attention from researchers and international organizations, leading to an increased number of pilot initiatives in many countries. Despite the potential benefit of the product in protecting the livelihoods of farmers and pastoralists against climate shocks, to date there has been an unexpectedly low uptake. Using information from current pilot projects on index-based insurance in Ethiopia, this paper discusses the determinants of uptake that have so far undermined the scaling-up of the products, by focusing in particular on weather data availability, price affordability and willingness to pay. We found that, aside from data constraint issues, high price elasticity and low willingness to pay represent impediments to the development of the market. These results, bring us to rethink the role of index insurance as products for enhancing smallholders’ response to covariate shocks, and particularly for improving their food security.

Keywords: index-based insurance, willingness to pay, satellite information, Ethiopia

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Authors: Hector Carcel Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

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This paper examines the time series behavior of three variables (GDP, Price level of Consumption and Population) in the eight countries that belong to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), which are Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. The reason for carrying out this study lies in the considerable heterogeneity that can be perceived in the data from these countries. We conduct a long memory and fractional integration modeling framework and we also identify potential breaks in the data. The aim of the study is to perceive up to which degree the eight West African countries that belong to the same monetary union follow the same economic patterns of stability. Testing for mean reversion, we only found strong evidence of it in the case of Senegal for the Price level of Consumption, and in the cases of Benin, Burkina Faso and Senegal for GDP.

Keywords: West Africa, Monetary Union, fractional integration, economic patterns

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Authors: Teboho J. Mosikari, Johannes T. Tsoku, Diteboho L. Xaba

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The increase of capital mobility across emerging economies has become an interesting topic for many economic policy makers. The current study tests the validity of Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for 5 BRICS countries. The sample period of the study runs from 2001 to 2014. The study uses the following parameter estimates well known as the Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), and Dynamic OLS (DOLS). The results of the study show that investment and savings are cointegrated in the long run. The parameters estimated using FMOLS and DOLS are 0.85 and 0.74, respectively. These results imply that policy makers within BRICS countries have to consider flexible monetary and fiscal policy instruments to influence the mobility of capital with the bloc.

Keywords: Feldstein and Horioka puzzle, saving and investment, panel models, BRICS countries

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Authors: John Adebayo Oloyhede

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This paper examines effect of financial liberalization on the stability of the demand for money function and its implication for exchange rate behaviour of three African countries. As the demand for money function is regarded as one of the two main building blocks of most exchange rate determination models, the other being purchasing power parity, its stability is required for the monetary models of exchange rate determination to hold. To what extent has the liberalisation policy of these countries, for instance liberalised interest rate, affected the demand for money function and what has been the consequence on the validity and relevance of floating exchange rate models? The study adopts the Autoregressive Instrumental Package (AIV) of multiple regression technique and followed the Almon Polynomial procedure with zero-end constraint. Data for the period 1986 to 2011 were drawn from three developing countries of Africa, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which did not only start the liberalization and floating system almost at the same period but share similar and diverse economic and financial structures. Its findings show that the demand for money was a stable function of income and interest rate at home and abroad. Other factors such as exchange rate and foreign interest rate exerted some significant effect on domestic money demand. The short-run and long-run elasticity with respect to income, interest rates, expected inflation rate and exchange rate expectation are not greater than zero. This evidence conforms to some extent to the expected behaviour of the domestic money function and underscores its ability to serve as good building block or assumption of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. This will, therefore, assist appropriate monetary authorities in the design and implementation of further financial liberalization policy packages in developing countries.

Keywords: financial liberalisation, exchange rates, demand for money, developing economies

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Authors: Maria Elisa B. Manuel

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The Philippine housing sector is bracing challenges with the massive housing backlog and the adamant cycle of relocation, resettlement and returns to the cities of informal settler families due to the vast inaccessibility of necessities and opportunities in the past off-city housing projects. Bistekville 2 has been established as a model socialized housing project by utilizing government partnerships with private developers and individuals in the first in-city and onsite resettlement effort in the country. The study looked into the resilience of the residents to idiosyncratic economic shocks by analyzing their vulnerabilities, assets and coping strategies. The study formulated an economic resilience framework to identify how these factors that interact to build the household’s capacity to positively adapt to sudden expenses in their households. The framework is supplemented with a scale that presents the proximity of the household to resilience by identifying through its indicators whether the households are in the level of subsistence, coping, adaptive or transformative. Survey interviews were conducted with 91 households from Bistekville 2 on the components that have been identified by the framework that was processed with qualitative and quantitative processes. The study has found that the households are highly vulnerable due to their family composition and other conditions such as unhealthy loans, inconsistent amortization payment. Along with their high vulnerability, the households have inadequate strategies to anticipate shocks and primarily react to the shock. This has led to the conclusion that the households do not reflect resilience to idiosyncratic economic shocks and are still at the level of coping.

Keywords: idiosyncratic economic shocks, socialized housing, economic resilience, economic vulnerability, adaptive capacity

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Authors: Fabio Oettl, Sebastian Hoerbrand, Tobias Wittmeir, Johannes Schilp

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By combining the additive manufacturing (AM)- process with digital concepts, like the digital twin (DT) or the downsized and basing concept of the digital part file (DPF), the competitiveness of additive manufacturing is enhanced and new use cases like decentral production are enabled. But in literature, one can´t find any quantitative approach for valuing the usage of a DT or DPF in AM. Out of this fact, such an approach will be developed within this paper in order to further promote or dissuade the usage of these concepts. The focus is set on the production as an early lifecycle phase, which means that the AM-production process gets analyzed regarding the potential advantages of using DPF in AM. These advantages are transferred to a monetary value with this approach. By calculating the costs of the DPF, an overall monetary value is a result. Thereon a tool, based on a simulation environment is constructed, where the algorithms are transformed into a program. The results of applying this tool show that an overall value of 20,81 € for the DPF can be realized for one special use case. For the future application of the DPF there is the recommendation to integrate especially sustainable information because out of this, a higher value of the DPF can be expected.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, digital concept costs, digital part file, digital twin, monetary value estimation

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Authors: Teng Li, Kamran Mohseni

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This paper presents an inviscid regularization technique that is capable of regularizing the shocks and sharp interfaces simultaneously in the shock-interface interaction simulations. The direct numerical simulation of flows involving shocks has been investigated for many years and a lot of numerical methods were developed to capture the shocks. However, most of these methods rely on the numerical dissipation to regularize the shocks. Moreover, in high Reynolds number flows, the nonlinear terms in hyperbolic Partial Differential Equations (PDE) dominates, constantly generating small scale features. This makes direct numerical simulation of shocks even harder. The same difficulty happens in two-phase flow with sharp interfaces where the nonlinear terms in the governing equations keep sharpening the interfaces to discontinuities. The main idea of the proposed technique is to average out the small scales that is below the resolution (observable scale) of the computational grid by filtering the convective velocity in the nonlinear terms in the governing PDE. This technique is named “observable method” and it results in a set of hyperbolic equations called observable equations, namely, observable Navier-Stokes or Euler equations. The observable method has been applied to the flow simulations involving shocks, turbulence, and two-phase flows, and the results are promising. In the current paper, the observable method is examined on the performance of regularizing shocks and interfaces at the same time in shock-interface interaction problems. Bubble-shock interactions and Richtmyer-Meshkov instability are particularly chosen to be studied. Observable Euler equations will be numerically solved with pseudo-spectral discretization in space and third order Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) Runge Kutta method in time. Results are presented and compared with existing publications. The interface acceleration and deformation and shock reflection are particularly examined.

Keywords: compressible flow simulation, inviscid regularization, Richtmyer-Meshkov instability, shock-bubble interactions.

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Authors: Esra Topcuoglu, Seyhmus Baloglu

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This research investigates the effects of online hotel sales promotion fit (SP fit) on traveler purchase intention (PI) and word-of-mouth (WOM). It examines these relationships based on the need for cognition (NFC), intention to travel (TI), promotional attractiveness (PA), and demographics within resource matching theory (RMT). One factor (SP: Fit presence for monetary and nonmonetary vs. Fit absence for monetary and nonmonetary) design was employed to test the effects of SP fit on traveler behaviors. Data collection was conducted from 300 subjects through Qualtrics. One-way MANOVA was performed to test the main effects of SP fit, and PROCESS simple moderation test for the interaction effects. Results revealed promotional fit increased the effectiveness of monetary and nonmonetary sales promotions. “F&B discount card at the hotel” was the most preferred deal. Fit absence for monetary sales promotion (MSP) and fit presence for nonmonetary sales promotion (NMSP) yielded significant results. The participants were involved in their intention to travel and perceptions of promotional attractiveness to value the promotions.

Keywords: need for cognition, promotional attractiveness, sales promotion fit, travel intention

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Authors: Devasheesh Mathur

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The presentation reviews the literature on the phenomenon of policy innovation. Policy innovation refers to a shift in the way policy is made or executed. The paper covers comprehensively on the definition and also the various types of policy innovations. The emphasis is on the antecedents or the determinants of innovation in policies. The author has then made an effort to discover the knowledge gap in the field of policy innovation so as to identify the future scope of research. The objective is to lend more clarity in the area of policy innovation and help in creating a framework for policy-makers as well as academics.

Keywords: literature review, policy innovation, determinants, antecedents

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Authors: Drago Jakovcevic, Mihovil Andelinovic, Igor Husak

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The aim of this paper is to explore the economic circumstances in which the selective credit policy, the least used instrument of four types of instruments on disposal to central banks, should be used. The most significant example includes the use of selective credit policies in response to the emergence of the global financial crisis by the FED. Specifics of the potential use of selective credit policies as the instigator of economic growth in Croatia, a small open economy, are determined by high euroization of financial system, fixed exchange rate and long-term trend growth of external debt that is related to the need to maintain high levels of foreign reserves. In such conditions, the classic forms of selective credit policies are unsuitable for the introduction. Several alternative approaches to implement selective credit policies are examined in this paper. Also, thorough analysis of distribution of selective monetary policy loans among economic sectors in Croatia is conducted in order to minimize the risk of investing funds and maximize the return, in order to influence the GDP growth.

Keywords: global crisis, selective credit policy, small open economy, Croatia

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Authors: Jakub Gren

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The recent transfer of banking supervision to the ECB has expanded its influence as of a non-majoritarian and technocratic policy-shaper in EU supervisory policies. To fulfil the main policy objectives of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the ECB has been tasked with building a single supervisory approach to supervised banks across the euro area and is now exclusively responsible for direct supervision of the largest ‘significant’ euro area banks and the oversight of the remaining ‘less significant’ banks. This enhanced supranational position of the ECB significantly alters the EU institutional order and creates powerful incentives to actively pursue integrationist agenda by the ECB. However, this drastic shift has a little impact upon adapting the ECB’s new supervisory mandate to the requirements of democratic legitimacy. Whereas the ECB’s strong pre-crisis independence and limited accountability could be reconciled with democratic principles through a clearly articulated price stability mandate, independence and limited accountability in the context of a more complex supervisory mandate is problematic. Hence, in order to ensure the democratic legitimacy of the ECB/SSM’s supervisory policies, the ECB’s supervisory mandate requires both a lower scope of independence and higher accountability requirements. To address this situation, organizational separation (“Chinese Wall”) between the ECB monetary and supervisory arms was introduced. This separation includes different reporting lines and the relocation of the ECB’s monetary function to a new building complex while leaving its supervisory function at the Euro-tower (“Two Towers”). This paper argues that these measures are not sufficient to establish proper checks and balances on the ECB’s powers to pursue euro zone’s wide supervisory policies. As a remedy, this contribution suggests that the ECB’s Treaties-embedded independence, as set out by art. 130 TFEU, designed to carry out its monetary function shall not be fully applicable to its supervisory function. Indeed functional and conditional reading of this provision to ECB supervisory function could enhance the legitimacy of future ECB’s supervisory action.

Keywords: accountability and transparency, democratic governance, financial management, rule of law

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Authors: A. Bolaji Adesoye, Alimi Olorunfemi

Abstract:

This paper examines the impact of small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) credit financing and financial market development and their shocks on the output growth of Nigeria. The study estimated a VAR model for Nigeria using 1970-2013 annual data series. Unit root tests and cointegration are carried out. The study also explores IRFs and FEVDs in a system that includes output, commercial bank loan to SMEs, domestic credit to private sector by banks, money supply, lending rate and investment. Findings suggest that shocks in commercial bank credit to SMEs has a major impact on the output changes of Nigeria. Money supply shocks also have a sizeable impact on output growth variations amidst other financial instruments. Lastly, neutrality of investment does not hold in Nigeria as it also has impact on output fluctuations.

Keywords: SMEs financing, financial development, investment, output, Nigeria

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