Search results for: maximum likelihood estimates

Authors: In-Hwan Baek

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Valsartan is a potent and highly selective antagonist of the angiotensin II type 1 receptor, and is widely used for the treatment of hypertension. The aim of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetic properties of the valsartan in dogs following oral administration of a single dose using quantitative modeling approaches. Forty beagle dogs were randomly divided into two group. Group A (n=20) was administered a single oral dose of valsartan 80 mg (Diovan® 80 mg), and group B (n=20) was administered a single oral dose of valsartan 160 mg (Diovan® 160 mg) in the morning after an overnight fast. Blood samples were collected into heparinized tubes before and at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12 and 24 h following oral administration. The plasma concentrations of the valsartan were determined using LC-MS/MS. Non-compartmental pharmacokinetic analyses were performed using WinNonlin Standard Edition software, and modeling approaches were performed using maximum-likelihood estimation via the expectation maximization (MLEM) algorithm with sampling using ADAPT 5 software. After a single dose of valsartan 80 mg, the mean value of maximum concentration (Cmax) was 2.68 ± 1.17 μg/mL at 1.83 ± 1.27 h. The area under the plasma concentration-versus-time curve from time zero to the last measurable concentration (AUC24h) value was 13.21 ± 6.88 μg·h/mL. After dosing with valsartan 160 mg, the mean Cmax was 4.13 ± 1.49 μg/mL at 1.80 ± 1.53 h, the AUC24h was 26.02 ± 12.07 μg·h/mL. The Cmax and AUC values increased in proportion to the increment in valsartan dose, while the pharmacokinetic parameters of elimination rate constant, half-life, apparent of total clearance, and apparent of volume of distribution were not significantly different between the doses. Valsartan pharmacokinetic analysis fits a one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination following a single dose of valsartan 80 mg and 160 mg. In addition, high inter-individual variability was identified in the absorption rate constant. In conclusion, valsartan displays the dose-dependent pharmacokinetics in dogs, and Subsequent quantitative modeling approaches provided detailed pharmacokinetic information of valsartan. The current findings provide useful information in dogs that will aid future development of improved formulations or fixed-dose combinations.

Keywords: dose-dependent, modeling, pharmacokinetics, valsartan

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Authors: Muhd. Barzani Gasim, Mohd. Ekhwan Toriman, Mohd. Khairul Amri Kamarudin, Azman Azid, Siti Humaira Haron, Muhammad Hafiz Md. Saad

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Malaysia is a country in Southeast Asia that constantly exposed to flooding and landslide. The disaster has caused some troubles such loss of property, loss of life and discomfort of people involved. This problem occurs as a result of climate change leading to increased stream flow rate as a result of disruption to regional hydrological cycles. The aim of the study is to determine hydrologic processes in the east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, especially in Kelantan Basin. Parameterized to account for the spatial and temporal variability of basin characteristics and their responses to climate variability. For hydrological modeling of the basin, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model such as relief, soil type, and its use, and historical daily time series of climate and river flow rates are studied. The interpretation of Landsat map/land uses will be applied in this study. The combined of SWAT and climate models, the system will be predicted an increase in future scenario climate precipitation, increase in surface runoff, increase in recharge and increase in the total water yield. As a result, this model has successfully developed the basin analysis by demonstrating analyzing hydrographs visually, good estimates of minimum and maximum flows and severe floods observed during calibration and validation periods.

Keywords: east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, Kelantan river basin, minimum and maximum flows, severe floods, SWAT model

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Authors: Sunday B. Alabi, Edikan P. Felix, Aniediong M. Umo

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Crystal size distribution is of great importance in the sugar factories. It determines the market value of granulated sugar and also influences the cost of production of sugar crystals. Typically, sugar is produced using fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer. The crystallization quality is examined by crystal size distribution at the end of the process which is quantified by two parameters: the average crystal size of the distribution in the mean aperture (MA) and the width of the distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV). Lack of real-time measurement of the sugar crystal size hinders its feedback control and eventual optimisation of the crystallization process. An attractive alternative is to use a soft sensor (model-based method) for online estimation of the sugar crystal size. Unfortunately, the available models for sugar crystallization process are not suitable as they do not contain variables that can be measured easily online. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a regression model for estimating the sugar crystal size as a function of input variables which are easy to measure online. This has the potential to provide real-time estimates of crystal size for its effective feedback control. Using 7 input variables namely: initial crystal size (Lo), temperature (T), vacuum pressure (P), feed flowrate (Ff), steam flowrate (Fs), initial super-saturation (S0) and crystallization time (t), preliminary studies were carried out using Minitab 14 statistical software. Based on the existing sugar crystallizer models, and the typical ranges of these 7 input variables, 128 datasets were obtained from a 2-level factorial experimental design. These datasets were used to obtain a simple but online-implementable 6-input crystal size model. It seems the initial crystal size (Lₒ) does not play a significant role. The goodness of the resulting regression model was evaluated. The coefficient of determination, R² was obtained as 0.994, and the maximum absolute relative error (MARE) was obtained as 4.6%. The high R² (~1.0) and the reasonably low MARE values are an indication that the model is able to predict sugar crystal size accurately as a function of the 6 easy-to-measure online variables. Thus, the model can be used as a soft sensor to provide real-time estimates of sugar crystal size during sugar crystallization process in a fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer.

Keywords: crystal size, regression model, soft sensor, sugar, vacuum evaporative crystallizer

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Authors: Razak Zakariya, Fazliana Mustajap, Lenny Sharinee Sakai

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A sediment map is quite important in the marine environment. The sediment itself contains thousands of information that can be used for other research. This study was conducted by using a multibeam echo sounder Reson T20 on 15 August 2020 at the Karang Sela (coral reef area) at Pulau Bidong. The study aims to identify the sediment type around the coral reef by using bathymetry and backscatter data. The sediment in the study area was collected as ground truthing data to verify the classification of the seabed. A dry sieving method was used to analyze the sediment sample by using a sieve shaker. PDS 2000 software was used for data acquisition, and Qimera QPS version 2.4.5 was used for processing the bathymetry data. Meanwhile, FMGT QPS version 7.10 processes the backscatter data. Then, backscatter data were analyzed by using the maximum likelihood classification tool in ArcGIS version 10.8 software. The result identified three types of sediments around the coral which were very coarse sand, coarse sand, and medium sand.

Keywords: sediment type, MBES echo sounder, backscatter, ArcGIS

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Authors: Hafez Fouad

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Telemedicine applications have very low voltage which required High Precision Rectifier Design with high Sensitivity to operate at minimum input Voltage. In this work, we targeted 0.2V input voltage using 65 nm CMOS rectifier for Energy Harvesting Telemedicine application. The proposed rectifier which designed at 2.4GHz using two-stage structure found to perform in a better case where minimum operation voltage is lower than previous published paper and the rectifier can work at a wide range of low input voltage amplitude. The Performance Summary of Full-wave fully gate cross-coupled rectifiers (FWFR) CMOS Rectifier at F = 2.4 GHz: The minimum and maximum output voltages generated using an input voltage amplitude of 2 V are 490.9 mV and 1.997 V, maximum VCE = 99.85 % and maximum PCE = 46.86 %. The Performance Summary of Differential drive CMOS rectifier with external bootstrapping circuit rectifier at F = 2.4 GHz: The minimum and maximum output voltages generated using an input voltage amplitude of 2V are 265.5 mV (0.265V) and 1.467 V respectively, maximum VCE = 93.9 % and maximum PCE= 15.8 %.

Keywords: energy harvesting, embedded system, IoT telemedicine system, threshold voltage minimization, differential drive cmos rectifier, full-wave fully gate cross-coupled rectifiers CMOS rectifier

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Authors: S. Shamohammadi, L. Razavi

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This paper based on the principle concepts of SCS-CN model, a new mathematical model for computation of retention potential (S) presented. In the mathematical model, not only precipitation-runoff concepts in SCS-CN model are precisely represented in a mathematical form, but also new concepts, called “maximum retention” and “total retention” is introduced, and concepts of potential retention capacity, maximum retention, and total retention have been separated from each other. In the proposed model, actual retention (F), maximum actual retention (Fmax), total retention (S), maximum retention (Smax), and potential retention (Sp), for the first time clearly defined, so that Sp is not variable, but a function of morphological characteristics of the watershed. Indeed, based on the mathematical relation of the conceptual curve of SCS-CN model, the proposed model provides a new method for the computation of actual retention in watershed and it simply determined runoff based on. In the corresponding relations, in addition to Precipitation (P), Initial retention (Ia), cumulative values of actual retention capacity (F), total retention (S), runoff (Q), antecedent moisture (M), potential retention (Sp), total retention (S), we introduced Fmax and Fmin referring to maximum and minimum actual retention, respectively. As well as, ksh is a coefficient which depends on morphological characteristics of the watershed. Advantages of the modified version versus the original model include a better precision, higher performance, easier calibration and speed computing.

Keywords: model, mathematical, retention, watershed, SCS

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Authors: Raja Umer Sajjad, Chang Hee Lee

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Stormwater runoff is the leading contributor to pollution of receiving waters. In response, an efficient stormwater monitoring program is required to quantify and eventually reduce stormwater pollution. The overall goals of stormwater monitoring programs primarily include the identification of high-risk dischargers and the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). The challenge in developing better monitoring program is to reduce the variability in flux estimates due to sampling errors; however, the success of monitoring program mainly depends on the accuracy of the estimates. Apart from sampling errors, manpower and budgetary constraints also influence the quality of the estimates. This study attempted to develop optimum stormwater monitoring design considering both cost and the quality of the estimated pollutants flux. Three years stormwater monitoring data (2012 – 2014) from a mix land use located within Geumhak watershed South Korea was evaluated. The regional climate is humid and precipitation is usually well distributed through the year. The investigation of a large number of water quality parameters is time-consuming and resource intensive. In order to identify a suite of easy-to-measure parameters to act as a surrogate, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied. Means, standard deviations, coefficient of variation (CV) and other simple statistics were performed using multivariate statistical analysis software SPSS 22.0. The implication of sampling time on monitoring results, number of samples required during the storm event and impact of seasonal first flush were also identified. Based on the observations derived from the PCA biplot and the correlation matrix, total suspended solids (TSS) was identified as a potential surrogate for turbidity, total phosphorus and for heavy metals like lead, chromium, and copper whereas, Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) was identified as surrogate for organic matter. The CV among different monitored water quality parameters were found higher (ranged from 3.8 to 15.5). It suggests that use of grab sampling design to estimate the mass emission rates in the study area can lead to errors due to large variability. TSS discharge load calculation error was found only 2 % with two different sample size approaches; i.e. 17 samples per storm event and equally distributed 6 samples per storm event. Both seasonal first flush and event first flush phenomena for most water quality parameters were observed in the study area. Samples taken at the initial stage of storm event generally overestimate the mass emissions; however, it was found that collecting a grab sample after initial hour of storm event more closely approximates the mean concentration of the event. It was concluded that site and regional climate specific interventions can be made to optimize the stormwater monitoring program in order to make it more effective and economical.

Keywords: first flush, pollutant load, stormwater monitoring, surrogate parameters

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Authors: Vanessa Kummer, Maik Meusel

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Real estate demand estimates are typically derived from transaction data. However, in regions with excess demand, transactions are driven by supply and therefore do not indicate what people are actually looking for. To estimate the demand for housing in Switzerland, search subscriptions from all important Swiss real estate platforms are used. These data do, however, suffer from missing information—for example, many users do not specify how many rooms they would like or what price they would be willing to pay. In economic analyses, it is often the case that only complete data is used. Usually, however, the proportion of complete data is rather small which leads to most information being neglected. Also, the data might have a strong distortion if it is complete. In addition, the reason that data is missing might itself also contain information, which is however ignored with that approach. An interesting issue is, therefore, if for economic analyses such as the one at hand, there is an added value by using the whole data set with the imputed missing values compared to using the usually small percentage of complete data (baseline). Also, it is interesting to see how different algorithms affect that result. The imputation of the missing data is done using unsupervised learning. Out of the numerous unsupervised learning approaches, the most common ones, such as clustering, principal component analysis, or neural networks techniques are applied. By training the model iteratively on the imputed data and, thereby, including the information of all data into the model, the distortion of the first training set—the complete data—vanishes. In a next step, the performances of the algorithms are measured. This is done by randomly creating missing values in subsets of the data, estimating those values with the relevant algorithms and several parameter combinations, and comparing the estimates to the actual data. After having found the optimal parameter set for each algorithm, the missing values are being imputed. Using the resulting data sets, the next step is to estimate the willingness to pay for real estate. This is done by fitting price distributions for real estate properties with certain characteristics, such as the region or the number of rooms. Based on these distributions, survival functions are computed to obtain the functional relationship between characteristics and selling probabilities. Comparing the survival functions shows that estimates which are based on imputed data sets do not differ significantly from each other; however, the demand estimate that is derived from the baseline data does. This indicates that the baseline data set does not include all available information and is therefore not representative for the entire sample. Also, demand estimates derived from the whole data set are much more accurate than the baseline estimation. Thus, in order to obtain optimal results, it is important to make use of all available data, even though it involves additional procedures such as data imputation.

Keywords: demand estimate, missing-data imputation, real estate, unsupervised learning

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Authors: Shahadut Hossain, Jacek Wesolowski, Zahirul Hoque

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In many epidemiological and environmental studies covariate measurements are subject to the detection limit. In most applications, covariate measurements are usually truncated from below which is known as left-truncation. Because the measuring device, which we use to measure the covariate, fails to detect values falling below the certain threshold. In regression analyses, it causes inflated bias and inaccurate mean squared error (MSE) to the estimators. This paper suggests a response-based regression calibration method to correct the deleterious impact introduced by the covariate detection limit in the estimators of the parameters of simple logistic regression model. Compared to the maximum likelihood method, the proposed method is computationally simpler, and hence easier to implement. It is robust to the violation of distributional assumption about the covariate of interest. In producing correct inference, the performance of the proposed method compared to the other competing methods has been investigated through extensive simulations. A real-life application of the method is also shown using data from a population-based case-control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

Keywords: environmental exposure, detection limit, left truncation, bias, ad-hoc substitution

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Authors: Fathima M. A., Milu Maria Anto

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Aim: The current study aims to explore the understanding about Mental Health and the likelihood to seek help for mental health problems among adolescents in the state of Kerala (India). Method: A cross sectional exploratory design was used. Samples were selected using convenience sampling. Ninety nine high school and higher secondary school students who had enrolled in the program “Responsible Adolescents (READ)” organized by MKMS Education from Kerala participated in this study. The data for the present study was collected using google forms prior to the commencement of the READ programme. Open-ended questions were used to explore the understanding of participants about mental health, mental health problems, causes of mental health problems and the role of mental health professionals. The likelihood to seek help (from friends, parents, teachers and mental health professionals) for mental health problems was assessed using a visual analogue scale. Further open-ended questions were used to identify what changes in teachers and parents will make them feel more comfortable to approach them when they need help. Content analysis was used to identify themes and coded data was further analyzed using correlation. Results: The results show that students have a fair idea about what Mental Health is. Even though the majority is familiar with the names of mental health disorders, relatively fewer students identify it as irregularity in mental functions such as thoughts, emotions and behaviors. The students tend to attribute symptoms of mental health problems as the cause of mental health problems. Very few students have the understanding that biological variations and adverse childhood experiences are primary causes for the development of mental health problems. Less than half of the students were aware of the role of psychiatrists and psychologists in mental health treatment. The students were more likely to seek help from parents and friends during distress. They had a medium inclination to seek help from mental health professionals and showed even lower likelihood to seek help from teachers. The majority of the students responded that they would be more comfortable approaching teachers if they were more open-minded and approachable as well as non-judgmental and non-dismissive. Conclusion: Findings show that there is inadequate awareness among adolescents about mental health problems and their causes. There is a lack of understanding about the roles of two main mental health professionals which can pose a big hurdle in accessing adequate help from the appropriate professional at the right time. The low likelihood to seek help from teachers for mental health problems is very concerning. The major barriers reported by the students in seeking help from teachers were the judgmental and dismissive approach. The findings throw light on the current level of awareness about mental health and mental health help-seeking, which can be utilized in framing mental health awareness programs for students as well as teachers.

Keywords: Mental Health Awareness, Adolescent Mental Health, Help Seeking Behavior, School Mental Health

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Authors: Abdelazziz Aouiche, El Moundher Aouiche, Mouhamed Salah Soudani

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Renewable energy sources now significantly contribute to the replacement of traditional fossil fuel energy sources. One of the most potent types of renewable energy that has developed quickly in recent years is photovoltaic energy. We all know that solar energy, which is sustainable and non-depleting, is the best knowledge form of energy that we have at our disposal. Due to changing weather conditions, the primary drawback of conventional solar PV cells is their inability to track their maximum power point. In this study, we apply artificial neural networks (ANN) to automatically track and measure the maximum power point (MPP) of solar panels. In MATLAB, the complete system is simulated, and the results are adjusted for the external environment. The results are better performance than traditional MPPT methods and the results demonstrate the advantages of using neural networks in solar PV systems.

Keywords: modeling, photovoltaic panel, artificial neural networks, maximum power point tracking

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Authors: John Farr Rothrock

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Although migraine traditionally has been assumed to convey a relative decrease in libido, sexual activity and sexual performance, recent data have suggested that the female migraine population is far from homogenous in this regard. We sought to determine the levels of libido, sexual activity and sexual performance in the female migraine patient population both generally and according to clinical phenotype. In this single-blind study, a consecutive series of sexually active new female patients ages 25-55 initially presenting to a university-based headache clinic and having a >1 year history of migraine were asked to complete anonymously a survey assessing their sexual histories generally and as they related to their headache disorder and the 19-item Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI). To serve as 2 separate control groups, 100 sexually active females with no history of migraine and 100 female migraineurs from the general (non-clinic) population but matched for age, marital status, educational background and socioeconomic status completed a similar survey. Over a period of 3 months, 188 consecutive migraine patients were invited to participate. Twenty declined, and 28 of the remaining 160 potential subjects failed to meet the inclusion criterion utilized for “sexually active” (ie, heterosexual intercourse at a frequency of > once per month in each of the preceding 6 months). In all groups younger age (p<.005), higher educational level attained (p<.05) and higher socioeconomic status (p<.025) correlated with a higher monthly frequency of intercourse and a higher likelihood of intercourse resulting in orgasm. Relative to the 100 control subjects with no history of migraine, the two migraine groups (total n=232) reported a lower monthly frequency of intercourse and recorded a lower FSFI score (both p<.025), but the contribution to this difference came primarily from the chronic migraine (CM) subgroup (n=92). Patients with low frequency episodic migraine (LFEM) and mid frequency episodic migraine (MFEM) reported a higher FSFI score, higher monthly frequency of intercourse, higher likelihood of intercourse resulting in orgasm and higher likelihood of multiple active sex partners than controls. All migraine subgroups reported a decreased likelihood of engaging in intercourse during an active migraine attack, but relative to the CM subgroup (8/92=9%), a higher proportion of patients in the LFEM (12/49=25%), MFEM (14/67=21%) and high frequency episodic migraine (HFEM: 6/14=43%) subgroups reported utilizing intercourse - and orgasm specifically - as a means of potentially terminating a migraine attack. In the clinic vs no-clinic groups there were no significant differences in the dependent variables assessed. Research subjects with LFEM and MFEM may report a level of libido, frequency of intercourse and likelihood of orgasm-associated intercourse that exceeds what is reported by age-matched controls free of migraine. Many patients with LFEM, MFEM and HFEM appear to utilize intercourse/orgasm as a means to potentially terminate an acute migraine attack.

Keywords: migraine, female, libido, sexual activity, phenotype

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Authors: Rabiul Islam

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The study was in order to assess soil erosion at plot scale Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion model and Geographic Information System (GIS) technique have been used for the study 8 plots in Guthrie Corridor Expressway, Selangor, Malaysia. The USLE model estimates an average soil loss soil integrating several factors such as rainfall erosivity factor(R ), Soil erodibility factor (K), slope length and steepness factor (LS), vegetation cover factor as well as conservation practice factor (C &P) and Results shows that the four plots have very low rates of soil loss, i.e. NLDNM, NDNM, PLDM, and NDM having an average soil loss of 0.059, 0.106, 0.386 and 0.372 ton/ha/ year, respectively. The NBNM, PLDNM and NLDM plots had a relatively higher rate of soil loss, with an average of 0.678, 0.757 and 0.493ton/ha/year. Whereas, the NBM is one of the highest rate of soil loss from 0.842 ton/ha/year to maximum 16.466 ton/ha/year. The NBM plot was located at bare the land; hence the magnitude of C factor(C=0.15) was the highest one.

Keywords: USLE model, GIS, Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE), Malaysia

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Authors: Oluseun A. Akinsorotan, Louise K. Gentle, Md. Mofakkarul Islam, Richard W. Yarnell

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High levels of anthropogenic activity such as habitat destruction, poaching and encroachment into natural habitat have resulted in significant global wildlife declines. In order to protect wildlife, many protected areas such as national parks have been created. However, it is argued that many protected areas are only protected in name and are often exposed to continued, and often illegal, anthropogenic pressure. In West African protected areas, declines of large mammals have been documented between 1962 and 2008. This study aimed to produce occupancy estimates of the remaining large mammal fauna in the third largest National Park in Nigeria, Old Oyo, and to compare the estimates with historic estimates while also attempting to quantify levels of illegal anthropogenic activity using a multi-disciplinary approach. Large mammal populations and levels of illegal anthropogenic activity were assessed using empirical field data (camera trapping and transect surveys) in combination with data from questionnaires completed by local villagers and park rangers. Four of the historically recorded species in the park, lion (Panthera leo), hunting dog (Lycaon pictus), elephant (Loxodonta africana) and buffalo (Syncerus caffer) were not detected during field studies nor were they reported by respondents. In addition, occupancy estimates of hunters and illegal grazers were higher than the majority of large mammal species inside the park. This finding was reinforced by responses from the villagers and rangers who’s perception was that large mammal densities in the park were declining, and that a large proportion of the local people were entering the park to hunt wild animals and graze their domestic livestock. Our findings also suggest that widespread poverty and a lack of alternative livelihood opportunities, culture of consuming bushmeat, lack of education and awareness of the value of protected areas, and weak law enforcement are some of the reasons for the illegal activity. Law enforcement authorities were often constrained by insufficient on-site personnel and a lack of modern equipment and infrastructure to deter illegal activities. We conclude that there is a need to address the issue of illegal hunting and livestock grazing, via provision of alternative livelihoods, in combination with community outreach programmes that aim to improve conservation education and awareness and develop the capacity of the conservation authorities in order to achieve conservation goals. Our findings have implications for the conservation management of all protected areas that are available for exploitation by local communities.

Keywords: camera trapping, conservation, extirpation, illegal grazing, large mammals, national park, occupancy estimates, poaching

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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Magnesium alloy has been widely used in structure such as an automobile. It is necessary to consider probabilistic characteristics of a structural material because a fatigue behavior of a structure has a randomness and uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to find the characteristics of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the grown crack size at a specified fatigue crack propagation life and to investigate a statistical crack propagation in magnesium alloys. The statistical fatigue data of the grown crack size are obtained through the fatigue crack propagation (FCP) tests under different maximum fatigue load conditions conducted on the replicated specimens of magnesium alloys. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used to find the CDF of grown crack size. The CDF of grown crack size in case of larger maximum fatigue load has longer tail in below 10 percent and above 90 percent. The fatigue failure occurs easily as the tail of CDF of grown crack size becomes long. The fatigue behavior under the larger maximum fatigue load condition shows more rapid propagation and failure mode.

Keywords: cumulative distribution function, fatigue crack propagation, grown crack size, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load

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Authors: Supanitayanon Lalita, Dechkunakorn Surachai, Anuwongnukroh Niwat, Srikhirin Toemsak, Roongrujimek Pitchaya, Tua-Ngam Peerapong

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Objective: To compare maximum load, percentage of elongation, physical characteristics of 4 types of dental floss: (1) Thai Silk Floss (silk, waxed), (2) Oral B® Essential Floss (nylon, waxed), (3) Experimental Floss Xu (nylon, unwaxed), (4) Experimental Floss Xw (nylon, waxed). Materials & method: Four types of floss were tested (n=30) with a Universal Testing Machine (Instron®). Each sample (30 cm long, 5 cm segment) was fixed, and pulled apart with load cell of 100 N and a test speed of 100 mm/min. Physical characteristics were investigated by digital microscope under 2.5×10 magnification, and scanning electron microscope under 1×100 and 5×100 magnification. The size of the filaments was measured in micron (μm) and the fineness were measured in Denier. Statistical analysis: For mechanical properties, the maximum load and the percentage of elongation were presented as mean ± SD. The distribution of the data was calculated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. One-way ANOVA and multiple comparison (Tukey HSD) were used to analyze the differences among the groups with the level of a statistical difference at p < 0.05. Results: The maximum load of Floss Xu, Floss Xw, Oral B and Thai Silk were 47.39, 46.46, 25.38, and 23.70 N, respectively. The percentage of elongation of Oral B, Floss Xw, Floss Xu and Thai Silk were 72.43, 44.62, 31.25, and 16.44%, respectively. All 4 types of dental floss showed statistically differences in both the maximum load and percentage of elongation at p < 0.05, except for maximum load between Floss Xw and Floss Xu that showed no statistically significant difference. Physical characteristics of Thai silk revealed the most disintegrated, the smallest, and the least fine filaments. Conclusion: Floss Xu had the highest maximum load. Oral B had the highest percentage of elongation. Wax coating on Floss X increased the elongation but had no significant effect on the maximum load. The physical characteristics of Thai Silk resulted in the lowest mechanical properties values.

Keywords: dental floss, maximum load, mechanical property, percentage of elongation, physical property

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Authors: Manar Amayri, Hussain Kazimi, Quoc-Dung Ngo, Stephane Ploix

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A general approach is proposed to determine occupant behavior (occupancy and activity) in residential buildings and to use these estimates for improved energy management. Occupant behaviour is modelled with a Bayesian Network in an unsupervised manner. This algorithm makes use of domain knowledge gathered via questionnaires and recorded sensor data for motion detection, power, and hot water consumption as well as indoor CO₂ concentration. Two case studies are presented which show the real world applicability of estimating occupant behaviour in this way. Furthermore, experiments integrating occupancy estimation and hot water production control show that energy efficiency can be increased by roughly 5% over known optimal control techniques and more than 25% over rule-based control while maintaining the same occupant comfort standards. The efficiency gains are strongly correlated with occupant behaviour and accuracy of the occupancy estimates.

Keywords: energy, management, control, optimization, Bayesian methods, learning theory, sensor networks, knowledge modelling and knowledge based systems, artificial intelligence, buildings

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Authors: N. Ould cherchali, M. S. Boucherit, L. Barazane, A. Morsli

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Photovoltaic power is widely used to supply isolated or unpopulated areas (lighting, pumping, etc.). Great advantage is that this source is inexhaustible, it offers great safety in use and it is clean. But the dynamic models used to describe a photovoltaic system are complicated and nonlinear and due to nonlinear I-V and P–V characteristics of photovoltaic generators, a maximum power point tracking technique (MPPT) is required to maximize the output power. In this paper, two online techniques of maximum power point tracking using robust controller for photovoltaic systems are proposed, the first technique use fuzzy logic controller (FLC) and the second use sliding mode controller (SMC) for photovoltaic systems. The two maximum power point tracking controllers receive the partial derivative of power as inputs, and the output is the duty cycle corresponding to maximum power. A Photovoltaic generator with Boost converter is developed using MATLAB/Simulink to verify the preferences of the proposed techniques. SMC technique provides a good tracking speed in fast changing irradiation and when the irradiation changes slowly or is constant the panel power of FLC technique presents a much smoother signal with less fluctuations.

Keywords: fuzzy logic controller, maximum power point, photovoltaic system, tracker, sliding mode controller

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Authors: Saruhan Kartal, Ilker Kalkan

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The present paper reports the cracking moment estimates of a set of steel-reinforced, Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP)-reinforced and hybrid steel-FRP reinforced concrete beams, calculated from different analytical formulations in the codes, together with the experimental cracking load values. A total of three steel-reinforced, four FRP-reinforced, 12 hybrid FRP-steel over-reinforced and five hybrid FRP-steel under-reinforced concrete beam tests were analyzed within the scope of the study. Glass FRP (GFRP) and Basalt FRP (BFRP) bars were used in the beams as FRP bars. In under-reinforced hybrid beams, rupture of the FRP bars preceded crushing of concrete, while concrete crushing preceded FRP rupture in over-reinforced beams. In both types, steel yielding took place long before the FRP rupture and concrete crushing. The cracking moment mainly depends on two quantities, namely the moment of inertia of the section at the initiation of cracking and the flexural tensile strength of concrete, i.e. the modulus of rupture. In the present study, two different definitions of uncracked moment of inertia, i.e. the gross and the uncracked transformed moments of inertia, were adopted. Two analytical equations for the modulus of rupture (ACI 318M and Eurocode 2) were utilized in the calculations as well as the experimental tensile strength of concrete from prismatic specimen tests. The ACI 318M modulus of rupture expression produced cracking moment estimates closer to the experimental cracking moments of FRP-reinforced and hybrid FRP-steel reinforced concrete beams when used in combination with the uncracked transformed moment of inertia, yet the Eurocode 2 modulus of rupture expression gave more accurate cracking moment estimates in steel-reinforced concrete beams. All of the analytical definitions produced analytical values considerably different from the experimental cracking load values of the solely FRP-reinforced concrete beam specimens.

Keywords: polymer reinforcement, four-point bending, hybrid use of reinforcement, cracking moment

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Authors: Hamed Rashid Sarand, Kemal Selçuk Öğüt

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Speed is one of the fundamental variables of road traffic flow that stands as an important evaluation criterion for traffic analyses in several aspects. In particular, varieties of speed variable, such as average speed, free flow speed, optimum speed (capacity speed), acceleration/deceleration speed and so on, have been explicitly considered in the analysis of not only road safety but also road capacity. In the purpose of realizing 'road speed – maximum speed difference across lanes' and 'road flow rate – maximum speed difference across lanes' relations on freeway traffic, this study presents a case study conducted on a basic freeway segment of O-2 in Istanbul. The traffic data employed in this study have been obtained from 5 remote traffic microwave sensors operated by Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The study stretch is located between two successive freeway interchanges: Ümraniye and Kavacık. Daily traffic data of 4 years (2011-2014) summer months, July and August are used. The speed data are analyzed into two main flow areas such as uncongested and congested flows. In this study, the regression analyses were carried out in order to examine the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed. These investigations were implemented at uncongested and congested flows, separately. Moreover, the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate were evaluated by applying regression analyses for both uncongested and congested flows separately. It is concluded that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed in 50% cases. Additionally, it is indicated that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate in 30% cases. The maximum speed difference across lanes decreases as the road flow rate increases.

Keywords: maximum speed difference, regression analysis, remote traffic microwave sensor, speed differentiation, traffic flow

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Authors: Olivier Mesly

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This article examines the likelihood of deception on the part of borrowers wishing to obtain credit from institutional or private lenders. In our first study, we identify five explanatory variables that account for nearly forty percent of the propensity to act deceitfully: a poor credit history, debt, risky behavior, and to a much lesser degree, irrational behavior and disconnection from the bundle of needs, goals, and preferences. For the second study, we remodeled the initial questionnaire to adapt it to the needs of institutional bankers and borrowers, especially those that engage in money on-line peer-to-peer lending, a growing business fueled by the COVID pandemic. We find that the three key psychological variables that help to indirectly predict the likelihood of deceitful behaviors and possible default on loan reimbursement, i.e., risky behaviors, ir-rationality, and dis-connection, interact with each other to form a loop. This study presents two benefits: first, we provide evidence that it is to some degree possible to tighten control over lending practices. Second, we offer a pragmatic tool: a questionnaire, that lenders can use or adapt to gauge potential borrowers’ deceit, notably by combining their results with standard hard-data measures of risk.

Keywords: bundle of needs, default, debt, deception, risk, peer-to-peer lending

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Authors: Alirıza Kaleli, M. Akif Ceviz, Erdoğan Güner, Köksal Erentürk

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The cyclic variations in spark ignition engines occurring especially under specific engine operating conditions make the maximum pressure variable for successive in-cylinder pressure cycles. Minimization of cyclic variations has a great importance in effectively operating near to lean limit, or at low speed and load. The cyclic variations may reduce the power output of the engine, lead to operational instabilities, and result in undesirable engine vibrations and noise. In this study, spark timing is controlled in order to reduce the cyclic variations in spark ignition engines. Firstly, an ARMAX model has developed between spark timing and maximum pressure using system identification techniques. By using this model, the maximum pressure of the next cycle has been predicted. Then, self-tuning minimum variance controller has been designed to change the spark timing for consecutive cycles of the first cylinder of test engine to regulate the in-cylinder maximum pressure. The performance of the proposed controller is illustrated in real time and experimental results show that the controller has a reliable effect on cycle to cycle variations of maximum cylinder pressure when the engine works under low speed conditions.

Keywords: cyclic variations, cylinder pressure, SI engines, self tuning controller

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Authors: M. D. Nirmani, K. L. N. Perera, G. H. Galhena

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Dengue has become one of the most important arbo-viral disease in all tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Aedes aegypti, is the principal vector of the virus, vary in both epidemiological and behavioral characteristics, which could be finely measured through DNA sequence comparison at their population level. Such knowledge in the population differences can assist in implementation of effective vector control strategies allowing to make estimates of the gene flow and adaptive genomic changes, which are important predictors of the spread of Wolbachia infection or insecticide resistance. As such, this study was undertaken to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Ae. aegypti from Galle and Colombo, Sri Lanka, based on the ribosomal protein region which spans between two exons, in order to understand the geographical distribution of genetically distinct mosquito clades and its impact on mosquito control measures. A 320bp DNA region spanning from 681-930 bp, corresponding to the ribosomal protein, was sequenced in 62 Ae. aegypti larvae collected from Galle (N=30) and Colombo (N=32), Sri Lanka. The sequences were aligned using ClustalW and the haplotypes were determined with DnaSP 5.10. Phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes were constructed using the maximum likelihood method under Tamura 3 parameter model in MEGA 7.0.14 including three previously reported sequences of Australian (N=2) and Brazilian (N=1) Ae. aegypti. The bootstrap support was calculated using 1000 replicates and the tree was rooted using Aedes notoscriptus (GenBank accession No. KJ194101). Among all sequences, nineteen different haplotypes were found among which five haplotypes were shared between 80% of mosquitoes in the two populations. Seven haplotypes were unique to each of the population. Phylogenetic tree revealed two basal clades and a single derived clade. All observed haplotypes of the two Ae. aegypti populations were distributed in all the three clades, indicating a lack of genetic differentiation between populations. The Brazilian Ae. aegypti haplotype and one of the Australian haplotypes were grouped together with the Sri Lankan basal haplotype in the same basal clade, whereas the other Australian haplotype was found in the derived clade. Phylogram showed that Galle and Colombo Ae. aegypti populations are highly related to each other despite the large geographic distance (129 Km) indicating a substantial genetic similarity between them. This may have probably arisen from passive migration assisted by human travelling and trade through both land and water as the two areas are bordered by the sea. In addition, studied Sri Lankan mosquito populations were closely related to Australian and Brazilian samples. Probably this might have caused by shipping industry between the three countries as all of them are fully or partially enclosed by sea. For example, illegal fishing boats migrating to Australia by sea is perhaps a good mean of transportation of all life stages of mosquitoes from Sri Lanka. These findings indicate that extensive mosquito migrations occur between populations not only within the country, but also among other countries in the world which might be a main barrier to the successful vector control measures.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, dengue control, extensive mosquito migration, haplotypes, phylogeny, ribosomal protein

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Aline Woine, Moïra Mikolajczak, Virginie Dardier, Isabelle Roskam

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Background information: Becoming a parent is said to be the happiest event one can ever experience in one’s life. This popular (and almost absolute) truth–which no reasonable and decent human being would ever dare question on pain of being singled out as a bad parent–contrasts with the nuances that reality offers. Indeed, while many parents do thrive in their parenting role, some others falter and become progressively overwhelmed by their parenting role, ineluctably caught in a spiral of exhaustion. Parental burnout (henceforth PB) sets in when parental demands (stressors) exceed parental resources. While it is now generally acknowledged that PB affects the parent’s behavior in terms of neglect and violence toward their offspring, little is known about the impact that the syndrome might have on the children’s internalized (anxious and depressive symptoms, somatic complaints, etc.) and/or externalized (irritability, violence, aggressiveness, conduct disorder, oppositional disorder, etc.) behaviors. Furthermore, at the time of writing, to our best knowledge, no research has yet tested the reverse effect, namely, that of the child's internalized and/or externalized behaviors on the onset and/or maintenance of parental burnout symptoms. Goals and hypotheses: The present pioneering research proposes to fill an important gap in the existing literature related to PB by investigating the bidirectional effect between PB and the child’s internalized and/or externalized behaviors. Relying on a cross-lagged longitudinal study with three waves of data collection (4 months apart), our study tests a transactional model with bidirectional and recursive relations between observed variables and at the three waves, as well as autoregressive paths and cross-sectional correlations. Methods: As we write this, wave-two data are being collected via Qualtrics, and we expect a final sample of about 600 participants composed of French-speaking (snowball sample) and English-speaking (Prolific sample) parents. Structural equation modeling is employed using Stata version 17. In order to retain as much statistical power as possible, we use all available data and therefore apply the maximum likelihood with a missing value (mlmv) as the method of estimation to compute the parameter estimates. To limit (in so far is possible) the shared method variance bias in the evaluation of the child’s behavior, the study relies on a multi-informant evaluation approach. Expected results: We expect our three-wave longitudinal study to show that PB symptoms (measured at T1) raise the occurrence/intensity of the child’s externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T2 and T3). We further expect the child’s occurrence/intensity of externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T1) to augment the risk for PB (measured at T2 and T3). Conclusion: Should our hypotheses be confirmed, our results will make an important contribution to the understanding of both PB and children’s behavioral issues, thereby opening interesting theoretical and clinical avenues.

Keywords: exhaustion, structural equation modeling, cross-lagged longitudinal study, violence and neglect, child-parent relationship

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Authors: Shafique Qadir Memon, Muhammad Safar Mirjat, Abdul Quadir Mughal, Nadeem Amjad

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The aims of this study were to determine direct input energy and indirect energy in maize production, to evaluate the inputs energy consumption and outputs energy gained for maize production in Islamabad, Pakistan for spring 2013. Results showed that grain yield was maximum under deep tillage as compared to conventional and zero tillage. Total energy input/output were maximum in deep tillage as compared to conventional tillage while lowest in zero tillage, net energy gain were found maximum under deep tillage.

Keywords: tillage, energy, grain yield, net energy gain

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: Arvind Kumar, Manoj Kumar, Dattatraya H. Nagaraj, Amanpreet Singh, Jayanthi Prattapati

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The purpose of this paper is to study and compare two maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithms in a photovoltaic simulation system and also show a simulation study of maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for photovoltaic systems using perturb and observe algorithm and Incremental conductance algorithm. Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) plays an important role in photovoltaic systems because it maximize the power output from a PV system for a given set of conditions, and therefore maximize the array efficiency and minimize the overall system cost. Since the maximum power point (MPP) varies, based on the irradiation and cell temperature, appropriate algorithms must be utilized to track the (MPP) and maintain the operation of the system in it. MATLAB/Simulink is used to establish a model of photovoltaic system with (MPPT) function. This system is developed by combining the models established of solar PV module and DC-DC Boost converter. The system is simulated under different climate conditions. Simulation results show that the photovoltaic simulation system can track the maximum power point accurately.

Keywords: incremental conductance algorithm, perturb and observe algorithm, photovoltaic system, simulation results

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Authors: Zainab Almukhtar, Adel Merabet

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In this paper, a method for maximum power point tracking of a photovoltaic energy conversion system is presented. This method is based on using the difference between the power from the solar panel and an estimated power value to control the DC-DC converter of the photovoltaic system. The difference is continuously compared with a preset error permitted value. If the power difference is more than the error, the estimated power is multiplied by a factor and the operation is repeated until the difference is less or equal to the threshold error. The difference in power will be used to trigger a DC-DC boost converter in order to raise the voltage to where the maximum power point is achieved. The proposed method was experimentally verified through a PV energy conversion system driven by the OPAL-RT real time controller. The method was tested on varying radiation conditions and load requirements, and the Photovoltaic Panel was operated at its maximum power in different conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: control system, error, solar panel, MPPT tracking

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Avadhesh Yadav, Anunaya Saraswat

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An evacuated tube solar collector is experimentally studied for steam generation. When the solar radiation falls on evacuated tubes, this energy is absorbed by the tubes and transferred to water with natural conduction and convection. A natural circulation of water occurs due to the inclination in tubes and header. In this experimental study, the efficiency of collector has been calculated. The result shows that the collector attains the maximum efficiency of 46.26% during 14:00 to 15:00h. Steam has been generated for two hours from 13:30 to 15:30 h on a winter day. Maximum solar intensity and maximum ambient temperatures are 795W/m² and 19^oC respectively on this day.

Keywords: evacuated tube, solar collector, hot water, steam generation

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Authors: Samson Henry Dogo, Allan Clark, Elena Kulinskaya

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The objective in meta-analysis is to combine results from several independent studies in order to create generalization and provide evidence based for decision making. But recent studies show that the magnitude of effect size estimates reported in many areas of research finding changed with year publication and this can impair the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. A number of sequential methods have been proposed for monitoring the effect size estimates in meta-analysis. However they are based on statistical theory applicable to fixed effect model (FEM). For random-effects model (REM), the analysis incorporates the heterogeneity variance, tau-squared and its estimation create complications. In this paper proposed the use of Gombay and Serbian (2005) truncated CUSUM-type test with asymptotically valid critical values for sequential monitoring of REM. Simulation results show that the test does not control the Type I error well, and is not recommended. Further work required to derive an appropriate test in this important area of application.

Keywords: meta-analysis, random-effects model, sequential test, temporal changes in effect sizes

Procedia PDF Downloads 436

Authors: Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Lkhagvadorj Khosbayar, Naidansuren Tsendeekhuu, Densenbal Dansran, Bandi Solongo

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Introduction: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder affecting at least 2% to 4% of the adult population. It is estimated that nearly 80% of men and 93% of women with moderate to severe sleep apnea are undiagnosed. A number of screening questionnaires and clinical screening models have been developed to help identify patients with OSA, also it’s indeed to clinical practice. Purpose of study: Determine dependence of obstructive sleep apnea between for severe risk and risk factor. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study included 114 patients presenting from theCentral state 3th hospital and Central state 1th hospital. Patients who had obstructive sleep apnea (OSA)selected in this study. Standard StopBang questionnaire was obtained from all patients.According to the patients’ response to the StopBang questionnaire was divided into low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk.Descriptive statistics were presented mean ± standard deviation (SD). Each questionnaire was compared on the likelihood ratio for a positive result, the likelihood ratio for a negative test result of regression. Statistical analyses were performed utilizing SPSS 16. Results: 114 patients were obtained (mean age 48 ± 16, male 57)that divided to low risk 54 (47.4%), intermediate risk 33 (28.9%), high risk 27 (23.7%). Result of risk factor showed significantly increasing that mean age (38 ± 13vs. 54 ± 14 vs. 59 ± 10, p<0.05), blood pressure (115 ± 18vs. 133 ± 19vs. 142 ± 21, p<0.05), BMI(24 IQR 22; 26 vs. 24 IQR 22; 29 vs. 28 IQR 25; 34, p<0.001), neck circumference (35 ± 3.4 vs. 38 ± 4.7 vs. 41 ± 4.4, p<0.05)were increased. Results from multiple logistic regressions showed that age is significantly independently factor for OSA (odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.23, p<0.01). Predictive value of age was significantly higher factor for OSA (AUC=0.833, 95% CI 0.758-0.909, p<0.001). Our study showing that risk of OSA is beginning 47 years old (sensitivity 78.3%, specifity74.1%). Conclusions: According to most of all patients’ response had intermediate risk and high risk. Also, age, blood pressure, neck circumference and BMI were increased such as risk factor was increased for OSA. Especially age is independently factor and highest significance for OSA. Patients’ age one year is increased likelihood risk factor 1.1 times is increased.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea, Stop-Bang, BMI (Body Mass Index), blood pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 282