Search results for: macroeconomic effects

Authors: Walaa W. Diab

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The present paper offers a fundamental critique of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy after it surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. It emphasizes the importance of the fiscal policy after reviewing the revolution of almost all economic schools and bringing them in one summarized figure; the paper links the developmental role of the fiscal policy with the objectives and measures of the economic transformation. Thus, the importance of this study can be seen from several perspectives: First, it reviews the theoretical harvest of fiscal policy and provides a comparison between the main revolutionary Economic thoughts; the classical school, Keynesian school, and monetarist school. Then it turns to conclude the fiscal policy from the new consensus mainstream economic schools. Finally, the study presents grouped and classified empirical pieces of evidence as it divides those empirical studies into two groups; the first for developed economies and the second for developing ones. So the study is important also for the policymakers as well as scholars as it gives its recommendations upon the last analysis in the form of ‘policy implications’. The paper also presents a deeper look into the evaluation approaches of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy at the empirical level. Thus it is useful for both researchers and decision makers.

Keywords: economic transformation, fiscal policy, macroeconomic effects, public spending

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Authors: Xu Wang

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This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.

Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty

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Authors: Mahdy Elhusseiny, Richard Gearhart, Mariam Alyammahi

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In this study we analyse the impact of a number of major macroeconomic variables on industry-specific excess rates of return. In later specifications, we include time and recession fixed effects, to potentially capture time-specific trends that may have been changing over our panel. We have a number of results that bear mentioning. Seasonal and temporal factors found to have very large role in sector-specific excess returns. Increases in M1(money supply) decreases bank, insurance, real estate, and telecommunications, while increases industrial and transportation excess returns. The results indicate that the market return increases every sector-specific rate of return. The 2007 to 2009 recession significantly reduced excess returns in the bank, real estate, and transportation sectors.

Keywords: macroeconomic factors, industry returns, fixed effects, temporal factors

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Authors: G. Sarwar, C. Mateus, N. Todorovic

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The paper examines the asymmetries in size, value and momentum premium over the economic cycles in the UK and their macroeconomic determinants. Using Markov switching approach we find clear evidence of cyclical variations of the three premiums, most noticeably variations in size premium. We associate Markov switching regime 1 with economic upturn and regime 2 with economic downturn as per OECD’s Composite Leading Indicator. The macroeconomic indicators prompting such cyclicality the most are interest rates, term structure and credit spread. The role of GDP growth, money supply and inflation is less pronounced in our sample.

Keywords: macroeconomic determinants, Markorv Switching, size, value

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Authors: Mohammad Irfan

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.

Keywords: Indian Shariah Indices, macroeconomic variables, co-integration, Granger causality, vector error correction model (VECM)

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Authors: E. O. George, P. Ojeaga, D. Odejimi, O. Mattehws

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Has macroeconomic management succeeded in making privatization promote growth in Africa? What are the probable strategies that should accompany the privatization reform process to promote growth in Africa? To what extent has the privatization process succeeded in attracting foreign direct investment to Africa? The study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic management and privatization. Many African countries have embarked on one form of privatization reform or the other since 1980 as one of the stringent conditions for accessing capital from the IMF and the World Bank. Secondly globalization and the gradually integration of the African economy into the global economy also means that Africa has to strategically develop its domestic market to cushion itself from fluctuations and probable contagion associated with global economic crisis that are always inevitable Stiglitz. The methods of estimation used are the OLS, linear mixed effects (LME), 2SLS and the GMM method of estimation. It was found that macroeconomic management has the capacity to affect the success of the privatization reform process. It was also found that privatization was not promoting growth in Africa; privatization could promote growth if long run growth strategies are implemented together with the privatization reform process. Privatization was also found not to have the capacity to attract foreign investment to many African countries.

Keywords: Africa, political economy, game theory, macroeconomic management and privatization

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Authors: Reinhard Neck, Guido Schäfer

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In this paper, we explore the macroeconomic effects of the European Single Market on Austria by simulating the McKibbin-Sachs Global Model. Global interdependence and the impact of long-run effects on short-run adjustments are taken into account. We study the sensitivity of the results with respect to different assumptions concerning monetary and fiscal policies for the countries and regions of the world economy. The consequences of different assumptions about budgetary policies in Austria are also investigated. The simulation results are contrasted with ex-post evaluations of the actual impact of Austria’s membership in the Single Market. As a result, it can be concluded that the Austrian participation in the European Single Market entails considerable long-run gains for the Austrian economy with nearly no adverse side-effects on any macroeconomic target variable.

Keywords: macroeconomics, European Union, simulation, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Mohammad Maruf Hasan

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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been increased at a remarkable position around the globe in which emerging economies are getting more FDI compared to industrialized economies. This study aims to examine the determinants of inward FDI flows in Bangladesh. To estimate the long and short-run impact of the FDI determinants for 1996-2020, we employed the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Results show that: (1) macroeconomic determinants, such as economic growth, infrastructure, and market size, have a significant and strong positive effect.(2) Inflation exchange rate shows insignificant effects, while trade openness has mixed (short-run negative, long-run positive) effects on FDI inflows in both the long and short run. (3) Current institutional determinants rule of law has a positive effect on FDI inflows but is statistically insignificant, political stability has a negative, and the rule of law has a considerable beneficial impact on inflows of FDI. (4) The macroeconomic factors have been determined to impact Bangladesh's FDI inflows. Finally, a stable macroeconomic climate is more effective at luring FDI, as this study confirms. From a policy perspective, this study will help the government and policymakers to make a new investment policy.

Keywords: determinants, FDI, ARDL, Bangladesh

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Authors: Andre Kadandji, Mouhamadou Fall, Francois Koum Ekalle

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This paper aims to analyze the sound banking through the effects of the damage of the loan portfolio in the Cameroonian banking sector through the Z-score. The approach is to test the effect of other CAMEL indicators and macroeconomics indicators on the relationship between the non-performing loan and the soundness of Cameroonian banks. We use a dynamic panel data, made by 13 banks for the period 2010-2013. The analysis provides a model equations embedded in panel data. For the estimation, we use the generalized method of moments to understand the effects of macroeconomic and CAMEL type variables on the ability of Cameroonian banks to face a shock. We find that the management quality and macroeconomic variables neutralize the effects of the non-performing loan on the banks soundness.

Keywords: loan portfolio, sound banking, Z-score, dynamic panel

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Authors: Mati Ullah, Shams Ur Rahman

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The purpose of this research study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors on credit risk in Islamic banking in Pakistan. The future of financial institutions largely depends on how well they manage risks. Credit risk is an important type of risk affecting the banking sector. The current study has taken quarterly data for the period of 6 years, from 1st July 2014 to 30 Jun 2020. The data set consisted of secondary data. Data was extracted from the websites of the State Bank and World Bank and from the financial statements of the concerned banks. In this study, the Ordinary least square model was used for the analysis of the data. The results supported the hypothesis that macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors have a significant effect on credit risk. Macroeconomic variables, Inflation and exchange rates have positive significant effects on credit risk. However, gross domestic product has a negative significant relationship with credit risk. Moreover, the corporate rate has no significant relation with credit risk. Internal variables, size, management efficiency, net profit share income and capital adequacy have been proven to influence positively and significantly the credit risk. However, loan to deposit-has a negative insignificance relationship with credit risk. The contribution of this article is that similar conclusions have been made regarding the influence of banking factors on credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk, Islamic banks, macroeconomic variables, banks specific variable

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Authors: Agim Kukelii, Gevorg Sargsyan

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This study, focusing on the base regional area (county level), estimates the effect of natural disaster damages on aggregate personal income, aggregate wages, wages per worker, aggregate employment, and aggregate income transfer. The study further estimates the dynamics of personal income, employment, and wages under natural disaster shocks. Southeast Texas, located at the center of Golf Coast, is hit by meteorological and hydrological caused natural disasters yearly. On average, there are more than four natural disasters per year that cane an estimated damage average of 2.2% of real personal income. The study uses the panel data method to estimate the average effect of natural disasters on the area’s economy (personal income, wages, employment, and income transfer). It also uses Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model to study the dynamics of macroeconomic variables under natural disaster shocks. The study finds that the average effect of natural disasters is positive for personal income and income transfer and is negative for wages and employment. The PVAR and the impulse response function estimates reveal that natural disaster shocks cause a decrease in personal income, employment, and wages. However, the economy’s variables bounce back after three years. The novelty of this study rests on several aspects. First, this is the first study to investigate the effects of natural disasters on macroeconomic variables at a regional level. Second, the study uses direct measures of natural disaster damages. Third, the study estimates that the time that the local economy takes to absorb the natural disaster damages shocks is three years. This is a relatively good reaction to the local economy, therefore, adding to the “resiliency” hypothesis. The study has several implications for policymakers, businesses, and households. First, this study serves to increase the awareness of local stakeholders that natural disaster damages do worsen, macroeconomic variables, such as personal income, employment, and wages beyond the immediate damages to residential and commercial properties, physical infrastructure, and discomfort in daily lives. Second, the study estimates that these effects linger on the economy on average for three years, which would require policymakers to factor in the time area need to be on focus.

Keywords: natural disaster damages, macroeconomics effects, PVAR, panel data

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Authors: Shafaq Rana, Hina Ansar

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Projectification is an emerging phenomenon in Western economies. The projects have become the key driver of the economic actions. The impact of projectification is understudy for over a decade. A methodology was developed to measure the degree of projectification at economical level, which was later adapted to measure the degree of projectification in Germany, Norway, and Iceland; and compared the differences in these project societies, considering their industrial structure, organizational size, and the share of project work. Using the same methodology, this study aims to provide empirical evidence of the project work in the context of Pakistan –a developing nation, keeping into consideration the macroeconomic measures, qualitative and quantitative measures of the project i/c GDP, monetary measures, and project success. The research includes a qualitative pre-study to define these macro-measures in the country-specific context and a quantitative study to measure the project work w.r.t hours working in the organizations on projects. The outcome of this study provides the key data on the projectification in a developing economy, which will help industry practitioners and decision-makers to examine the consequences of projectification and strategize, respectively. This study also provides a foundation for further research in individual sectors of the country while exploring different macroeconomic questions, including the effect of projectification on project productivity, income effects, and labor market.

Keywords: developing economy, Pakistan, project work, projectification

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Authors: Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Sin-Jie Cai

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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run. Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause stronger impacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries. The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.

Keywords: house prices, macroeconomic variables, panel cointegration, dynamic OLS

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Authors: Ndeye Tiguida Sarr, Onur Akpinar

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The tourism industry, being the sector that includes all the activities related to the organization and satisfaction of tourists during their trip, also has a very important role in the national economy of the host country. In order to measure the stakes of tourism on the economy, microeconomic and macroeconomic factors are elements of analysis. While microeconomics is limited to an individual perspective, macroeconomics extends to a global perspective and treats the economy as a whole by focusing on social and economic actors in general. It is in this context that this study focuses on macroeconomic variables in order to determine the factors that influence the financial performance of tourism firms in Turkey, which is one of the world's major destinations. The aim of the study is to demonstrate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial performance of tourism firms. Data from 2011 to 2020 are collected, from a sample of 16 companies that represent the tourism sector in Borsa Istanbul. Tobin’s Q ratio, Market to Book ratio, Return on Invested Capital, and Return on Assets as the financial performance indicators were dependent variables of the study. Gross Domestic Products, Inflation, Interest Rates, and Unemployment as macroeconomic indicators were independent variables. Again, Size, Liquidity, Leverage, and Age were control variables of the study. According to the results, value indicators, which are Tobin’s Q ratio and Market to Book ratio, have a statistically significant relationship with Inflation, Interest Rates, and Unemployment. A negative relationship is found between value indicators and Interest rates and a positive relationship between value indicators and Unemployment and Inflation. On the other hand, there is no significant relationship between profit indicators (Return on Invested Capital and Return on Assets) and macroeconomic variables. Accordingly, Interest rates negatively affect the financial performance of tourism firms and stand out as a factor that decreases the value.

Keywords: financial performance, macroeconomic variables, panel data, Tobin Q

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Authors: Ahmad Haidar

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Modern economic systems are characterized by growing complexity, and addressing their challenges requires innovative approaches. This study examines the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on unemployment in Europe from a macroeconomic perspective, employing data modeling techniques to understand the relationship between AI integration and labor market dynamics. To understand the AI-unemployment nexus comprehensively, this research considers factors such as sector-specific AI adoption, skill requirements, workforce demographics, and geographical disparities. The study utilizes a panel data model, incorporating data from European countries over the last two decades, to explore the potential short-term and long-term effects of AI implementation on unemployment rates. In addition to investigating the direct impact of AI on unemployment, the study also delves into the potential indirect effects and spillover consequences. It considers how AI-driven productivity improvements and cost reductions might influence economic growth and, in turn, labor market outcomes. Furthermore, it assesses the potential for AI-induced changes in industrial structures to affect job displacement and creation. The research also highlights the importance of policy responses in mitigating potential negative consequences of AI adoption on unemployment. It emphasizes the need for targeted interventions such as skill development programs, labor market regulations, and social safety nets to enable a smooth transition for workers affected by AI-related job displacement. Additionally, the study explores the potential role of AI in informing and transforming policy-making to ensure more effective and agile responses to labor market challenges. In conclusion, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic implications of AI on unemployment in Europe, highlighting the importance of understanding the nuanced relationships between AI adoption, economic growth, and labor market outcomes. By shedding light on these relationships, the study contributes valuable insights for policymakers, educators, and researchers, enabling them to make informed decisions in navigating the complex landscape of AI-driven economic transformation.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, unemployment, macroeconomic analysis, european labor market

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Authors: Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda, Onyebuchi Iwegbu

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This study investigates the response of human development outcomes to selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. Human development outcomes is measured by human development index while the selected macroeconomic variables are inflation rate, real interest rate, government capital expenditure, real exchange rate, current account balance, and savings. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is employed in examining the response of human development index to the macroeconomic shocks. The result from the forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse-Response analysis reveals that fiscal policy (government capital expenditure) shock is the greatest determinant of human development outcomes. This result reiterates the role which the government plays in improving the welfare of the citizenry. The fiscal policy tool is pivotal in human development which comes in the form of investment in education, health, housing, and infrastructure. Further conclusion drawn from this study is that human development outcome positively and significantly responds to shocks from real interest rate, a monetary policy transmission variable and is felt greatly in the short run period. The policy implication of this study is that if capital budget implementation falls below expectations, human development will be engendered. Hence, efforts should be made to ensure that full implementation and appraisal of government capital expenditure is taken sacrosanct as any shock from such plan, engenders human development outcome.

Keywords: human development outcome, macroeconomic outcomes, structural vector autoregression, SVAR

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Authors: Sonali Agarwal

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The investor perception about investment avenues is affected to a great degree by the current happenings, within the country, and on the global stage. The influencing events can range from government policies, bilateral trade agreements, election agendas, to changing exchange rates, appreciation and depreciation of currency, recessions, meltdowns, bankruptcies etc. The current research attempts to discover and unravel the effect of various macroeconomic variables (crude oil price, gold price, silver price and USD exchange rate) on the Indian mutual fund industry in general and the chosen funds (Axis Gold Fund, BSL Gold Fund, Kotak Gold Fund & SBI gold fund) in particular. Cointegration tests and Vector error correction equations prove that the chosen variables have strong effect on the NAVs (net asset values) of the mutual funds. However, the greatest influence is felt from the fund’s own past and current information and it is found that when an innovation of fund’s own lagged NAVs is given, variance caused is high that changes the current NAVs markedly. The study helps to highlight the interplay of macroeconomic variables and their repercussion on mutual fund industry.

Keywords: cointegration, Granger causality, impulse response, macroeconomic variables, mutual funds, stationarity, unit root test, variance decomposition, VECM

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Authors: Cleopatra Oluseye Ibukun

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Following the endogenous growth theory, entrepreneurship has been considered pivotal to economic growth and development, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. Meanwhile, efforts to reduce unemployment has yielded minimal result with over 36% of youth unemployment and a dwindling economic growth despite the country’s natural and human resource endowment. This study, therefore, investigates the effects of entrepreneurship and institutional quality on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria over the period 1996 to 2018. The data is obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), and the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI). The study period is guided by the availability of data, and the study employs both descriptive and econometric techniques of analysis (specifically, the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Approach). This approach is preferable given that the variables are stationary at the first difference, while the bounds test suggests the existence of co-integration among the variables. By implication, an increase in entrepreneurship significantly improves economic growth, and it reduces unemployment in both the short-run and the long-run. Besides, institutional quality proxied by the control of corruption, political stability, and government effectiveness significantly mediates the interaction between entrepreneurship and macroeconomic performance. This study concludes that improved institutional quality enhances the effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria, and it recommends an improvement in Nigeria’s institutional quality because it can jeopardise or augment the effect of entrepreneurship on macroeconomic performance.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, institutional quality, unemployment, gross domestic product, Nigeria

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Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

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Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

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Authors: Walaa Diab, Baher Atlam, Nadia El Nimer

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Egypt faces many obvious economic challenges, and it is so clear that a real economic transformation is needed to address those problems, especially after the recent decisions of floating the Egyptian pound and the gradual subsidy cuts that are trying to meet the needed conditions to get the IMF support of (a £12bn loan) for its economic reform program. Following the post-2008 revival of the interest in the fiscal policy and its vital role in speeding up or slowing down the economic growth. Here comes the value of this paper as it seeks to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Egypt by applying A Bayesian SVAR Approach. The study uses the Bayesian method because it includes the prior information and no relevant information is omitted and so it is well suited for rational, evidence-based decision-making. Since the study aims to define the effects of fiscal policy shocks in Egypt to help the decision-makers in determining the proper means to correct the structural problems in the Egyptian economy, it has to study the period of 1990s economic reform, but unfortunately; the available data is on an annual frequency. Thus, it uses annual time series to study the period 1991: 2005 And quarterly data over the period 2006–2016. It uses a set of six main variables includes government expenditure and net tax revenues as fiscal policy arms affecting real GDP, unemployment, inflation and the interest rate. The study also tries to assess the 'crowding out' effects by considering the effects of government spending and government revenue shocks on the composition of GDP, namely, on private consumption and private investment. Last but not least the study provides its policy implications regarding the needed role of fiscal policy in Egypt in the upcoming economic reform building on the results it concludes from the previous reform program.

Keywords: fiscal policy, government spending, structural vector autoregression, taxation

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Authors: Hamed Movahedizadeh, Annuar Md Nassir, Mehdi Karimimalayer, Navid Samimi Sedeh, Ehsan Bagherpour

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The aim of this paper is to evaluate Tehran’s Stock Exchange (TSE) performance regarding with impact of four macroeconomic factors including world crude Oil Price (OP), World Gold Price (GP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and total Supplied Oil by Iran (SO) from January 2006 to December 2012 that Iran faced with economic and oil sanctions. Iran's exports of crude oil and lease condensate reduced to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, compared to 2.5 million bbl/d in 2011 due to hard sanctions. Monthly data are collected and subjected to a battery of tests through ordinary least square by EViews7. This study found that gold price and oil price are positively correlated with stock returns while total oil supplied and consumer price index have negative relationship with stock index, however, consumer price index tends to become insignificant in stock index. While gold price and consumer price index have short run relationship with TSE index at 10% of significance level this amount for oil price is significant at 5% and there is no significant short run relationship between supplied oil and Tehran stock returns. Moreover, this study found that all macroeconomic factors have long-run relationship with Tehran Stock Exchange Index.

Keywords: consumer price index, gold price, macroeconomic, oil price, sanction, stock market, supplied oil

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Authors: Mohamed Chakroun

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In this paper, we analyze the macroeconomic impacts of Oman’s strategy to transition to a green economy by 2050. Our objective is to determine the most effective climate policy instrument to facilitate this transition. By utilizing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, we assess the effectiveness of three climate policy tools: a carbon tax, subsidies to green assets, and taxes on brown assets. Our results indicate that a combination of a carbon tax, along with differentiated taxes and subsidies on green and brown assets, proves to the most effective policy in reducing emissions while maintaining macroeconomic stability. The findings of this study demonstrate the need for policymakers to balance the immediate goals of reducing emissions with the economic costs involved. Implementing a gradual transition strategy may be preferable as it allows for mitigating the negative economic impacts while facilitating the shift towards a green economy.

Keywords: green economy, carbon tax, DSGE model, climate policy, sustainable growth

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Authors: Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti, Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi, Mishelle Doorasamy

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This study offers an empirical investigation into some selected macroeconomic drivers of the monetary policy rate in member countries of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), considering both internal and external variables. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to carry out the investigation between monetary policy and some macroeconomic variables in both the long-run and short-run relationship. The results suggest that the drivers of the policy rate in this zone, in the long run, include, among others, global oil price, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product, while in the short run, federal fund rate, trade openness, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product are core determinants of the policy rate. Therefore, in order to ensure long-run stability in the policy rate among the members’ states, these drivers should be given closer consideration so that the trajectory for effective structure can be designed and fused into the economic structure and policy frameworks accordingly.

Keywords: monetary policy rate, macroeconomic variables, WAMZ, ARDL

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Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

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One conundrum that macroeconomic theory faces is to explain how an economy can revive from depression, in which the aggregate demand has fallen substantially below its productive capacity. This paper examines an autonomous stabilizing mechanism using an agent-based Wicksell-Keynes macroeconomic model. This paper focuses on the effects of the number of firms and the length of the gestation period for investment that are often assumed to be one in a mainstream macroeconomic model. The simulations found the virtual economy was highly unstable, or more precisely, collapsing when these parameters are fixed at one. This finding may even suggest us to question the legitimacy of these common assumptions. A perpetual decline in capital stock will eventually encourage investment if the capital stock is short-lived because an inactive investment will result in insufficient productive capacity. However, for an economy characterized by a roundabout production method, a gradual decline in productive capacity may not be able to fall below the aggregate demand that is also shrinking. Naturally, one would then ask if our economy cannot rely on an external stimulus such as population growth and technological progress to revive investment, what factors would provide such a buoyancy for stimulating investments? The current paper attempts to answer this question by employing the artificial macroeconomic model mentioned above. The baseline model has the following three features: (1) the multi-period gestation for investment, (2) a large number of heterogeneous firms, (3) demand-constrained firms. The instability is a consequence of the following dynamic interactions. (a) A multiple-period gestation period means that once a firm starts a new investment, it continues to invest over some subsequent periods. During these gestation periods, the excess demand created by the investing firm will spill over to ignite new investment of other firms that are supplying investment goods: the presence of multi-period gestation for investment provides a field for investment interactions. Conversely, the excess demand for investment goods tends to fade away before it develops into a full-fledged boom if the gestation period of investment is short. (b) A strong demand in the goods market tends to raise the price level, thereby lowering real wages. This reduction of real wages creates two opposing effects on the aggregate demand through the following two channels: (1) a reduction in the real labor income, and (2) an increase in the labor demand due to the principle of equality between the marginal labor productivity and real wage (referred as the Walrasian labor demand). If there is only a single firm, a lower real wage will increase its Walrasian labor demand, thereby an actual labor demand tends to be determined by the derived labor demand. Thus, the second positive effect would not work effectively. In contrast, for an economy with a large number of firms, Walrasian firms will increase employment. This interaction among heterogeneous firms is a key for stability. A single firm cannot expect the benefit of such an increased aggregate demand from other firms.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, demand constraint, gestation period, representative agent model, stability

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Authors: R. Henry, H. Andriamboavonjy, J. B. Paulin, S. Drahy, R. Gourichon

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During past decade, Chinese monetary policy has been to maintain stability of exchange rate CNY/USD by creating parity between the two currencies. This policy, against market equilibrium, impacts the exchange rate in having low Yuan currency, and keeping attractiveness of Chinese industries. Using macroeconomic and statistic approach, the impact of such policy onto CNY/USD exchange rate is quantitatively determined. It is also pointed out how Chinese banks respect Basel III ratios, in particular the foreign exchange ratio. The main analysis is focusing on how Chinese banks will respect these ratios in the future.

Keywords: macroeconomics models, yuan floating exchange rate, basel iii, china banking system

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Risk premium of emerging markets are moving altogether depending on the momentum and shifts in the global risk appetite. However, the magnitudes of these changes in the risk premium of emerging market economies might vary. In this paper, we focus on how global risk factor affects credit default swaps (CDS) premiums of emerging markets using principal component analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. PCA results indicate that the first common component accounts for almost 76% of common variation in CDS premiums of emerging markets. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are employed to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. There are two main macroeconomic variables that affect the sensitivity; government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP. The countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: emerging markets, principal component analysis, credit default swaps, sovereign risk

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Authors: George Ogono Muok, N. Obange, S. A. Odhiambo

Abstract:

Empirical literature on the determinants of foreign direct investments (FDI) flows is extensive but controversial over some determinants of FDI in-flows in developing countries. The objective of this study therefore was to investigate the overall determinants of FDI inflows in Kenya. Dynamic macroeconomic theory and correlational study design provided theoretical framework for specification of a time series model. The study used data observed from 1970 to 2015 in World Development Indicators (WDI) data bank. The results show that annual growth rate of GDP, inflation rates and external debt as a proportion of GDP are significant determinants of FDI inflows in Kenya and are therefore important macroeconomic parameters for policy formulation for promotion of FDI inflows in Kenya.

Keywords: determinants of foreign, direct, investment inflows in, Kenya, Africa

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Authors: I. Majerová, M. Horúcková

Abstract:

The concept of competitiveness is currently very frequently used term. However, the interpretation of its essence is different. In this paper, one of the many concepts of competitiveness will be analyzed and that is macroeconomic competitiveness, which is understood as a process, which is based on the productivity growth through the growth of key macroeconomic indicators such as standards of living and employment, where all of these variables must have a sustainable basis. Given the competition is a relative quantity it must be constantly compared with the development of competitiveness in other economies or regions. And this comparison method is also used in the article that compares the macro-competitiveness of selected economies of the European Economic Area – the Czech Republic, Poland, Austria, Switzerland and Germany. The aim of the paper is to verify the hypothesis concerning the direct correlation between the size of the economy and its competitiveness.

Keywords: comparison, competitiveness, European economic area, global competitiveness index, immeasurable indicators of competitiveness, macro-competitiveness

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Authors: Ephraim Ugwu, Christopher Ehinomen

Abstract:

Despite efforts by the Nigerian government to harmonize the macroeconomic policy implementations by establishing various committees to resolve disputes between the fiscal and monetary authorities, it is still evident that the federal government had continued its expansionary policy by increasing spending, thus creating huge budget deficit. This study evaluates the effect of macroeconomic policy coordination on economic growth uncertainty in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020. Employing the Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing procedures, the empirical results shows that the error correction term, ECM(-1), indicates a negative sign and is significant statistically with the t-statistic value of (-5.612882 ). Therefore, the gap between long run equilibrium value and the actual value of the dependent variable is corrected with speed of adjustment equal to 77% yearly. The long run coefficient results showed that the estimated coefficients of the intercept term indicates that other things remains the same (ceteris paribus), the economics growth uncertainty will continue reduce by 7.32%. The coefficient of the fiscal policy variable, PUBEXP, indicates a positive sign and significant statistically. This implies that as the government expenditure increases by 1%, economic growth uncertainty will increase by 1.67%. The coefficient of monetary policy variable MS also indicates a positive sign and insignificant statistically. The coefficients of merchandise trade variable, TRADE and exchange rate EXR show negative signs and significant statistically. This indicate that as the country’s merchandise trade and the rate of exchange increases by 1%, the economic growth uncertainty reduces by 0.38% and 0.06%, respectively. This study, therefore, advocate for proper coordination of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies in order to actualize the goal of achieving a stable economic growth.

Keywords: macroeconomic, policy coordination, growth uncertainty, ARDL, Nigeria

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Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

Abstract:

This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: TThailand tourism, Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information

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